Incorporating resilience when assessing pandemic risk in the Arctic: a case study of Alaska.

The discourse on vulnerability to COVID-19 or any other pandemic is about the susceptibility to the effects of disease outbreaks. Over time, vulnerability has been assessed through various indices calculated using a confluence of societal factors. However, categorising Arctic communities, without considering their socioeconomic, cultural and demographic uniqueness, into the high and low continuum of vulnerability using universal indicators will undoubtedly result in the underestimation of the communities' capacity to withstand and recover from pandemic exposure. By recognising vulnerability and resilience as two separate but interrelated dimensions, this study reviews the Arctic communities' ability to cope with pandemic risks. In particular, we have developed a pandemic vulnerability-resilience framework for Alaska to examine the potential community-level risks of COVID-19 or future pandemics. Based on the combined assessment of the vulnerability and resilience indices, we found that not all highly vulnerable census areas and boroughs had experienced COVID-19 epidemiological outcomes with similar severity. The more resilient a census area or borough is, the lower the cumulative death per 100 000 and case fatality ratio in that area. The insight that pandemic risks are the result of the interaction between vulnerability and resilience could help public officials and concerned parties to accurately identify the populations and communities at most risk or with the greatest need, which, in turn, helps in the efficient allocation of resources and services before, during and after a pandemic. A resilience-vulnerability-focused approach described in this paper can be applied to assess the potential effect of COVID-19 and similar future health crises in remote regions or regions with large Indigenous populations in other parts of the world.

Alternative approaches for creating a wealth index: the case of Mozambique.

INTRODUCTION: The wealth index is widely used as a proxy for a household's socioeconomic position (SEP) and living standard. This work constructs a wealth index for the Mopeia district in Mozambique using data collected in year 2021 under the BOHEMIA (Broad One Health Endectocide-based Malaria Intervention in Africa) project. METHODS: We evaluate the performance of three alternative approaches against the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) method based wealth index: feature selection principal components analysis (PCA), sparse PCA and robust PCA. The internal coherence between four wealth indices is investigated through statistical testing. Validation and an evaluation of the stability of the wealth index are performed with additional household income data from the BOHEMIA Health Economics Survey and the 2018 Malaria Indicator Survey data in Mozambique. RESULTS: The Spearman's rank correlation between wealth index ventiles from four methods is over 0.98, indicating a high consistency in results across methods. Wealth rankings and households' income show a strong concordance with the area under the curve value of ~0.7 in the receiver operating characteristic analysis. The agreement between the alternative wealth indices and the DHS wealth index demonstrates the stability in rankings from the alternative methods. CONCLUSIONS: This study creates a wealth index for Mopeia, Mozambique, and shows that DHS method based wealth index is an appropriate proxy for the SEP in low-income regions. However, this research recommends feature selection PCA over the DHS method since it uses fewer asset indicators and constructs a high-quality wealth index.

Out of sight, out of mind? Evidence from cross-sectional surveys on hidden caesarean sections among women with stillbirths in Ghana, 2007 and 2017.

BACKGROUND: Caesarean section (CS) rates in women experiencing stillbirth have not been studied with nationally representative data. Two Ghana Maternal Health Surveys (GMHS) have captured pregnancy and mode of birth data for all women including those with stillbirths. We compared CS rates between women with live births and stillbirths, and identified socio-economic and pregnancy-related factors associated with CS in stillbirths. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in a pooled sample of 17 138 women who had given birth within 5 years preceding the 2007 and 2017 GMHS. CS rates were compared between women with stillbirths and very early neonatal deaths (SBVENDs) and women with live births who survived the first day. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regressions explored variables associated with CS. Effect modification of household's wealth and maternal educational level by birth outcome was assessed using multivariable logistic regression with interaction terms. RESULTS: CS rate in women with SBVEND was 19.3% compared with 9.6% in women with live births who survived the first day (rate ratio 2.2; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.9). In multivariable analysis, attaining middle school compared with no formal education (adjusted OR, aOR 2.8; 95% CI 1.1 to 7.1), having had five or more births compared with nulliparity (aOR 3.7; 95% CI 1.3 to 10.7) and reporting prolonged or obstructed labour (aOR 3.3; 95% CI 1.3 to 8.3) were associated with CS in women with SBVEND. Higher household wealth and educational levels were associated with an increased risk of CS in both study groups, with no statistically significant difference in effect. CONCLUSION: Disaggregating CS rates by birth outcome revealed a high rate among women with SBVEND, twice the overall rate compared with live births. Exclusion of these 'hidden' CSs from rate calculations may lead to underestimation of (inter)national CS rates and potentially conceals CS overuse or misuse.

Frontiers of household water insecurity metrics: severity, adaptation and resilience.

The measurement of household-level and individual-level water insecurity has accelerated over the past 5 years through innovation and dissemination of new survey-based experiential psychometric scales modelled after food insecurity scales. These measures offer needed insight into the relative frequency of various dimensions of water problems experienced by households or individuals. But they currently tell us nothing about the severity of these experiences, mitigating behaviours (ie, adaptation) or the effectiveness of water-related behaviours (ie, resilience). Given the magnitude of the global challenge to provide water security for all, we propose a low-cost, theoretically grounded modification to common water insecurity metrics in order to capture information about severity, adaptation and resilience. We also discuss ongoing challenges in cost-effective measurement related to multidimensionality, water affordability and perception of water quality for maximising the impact and sustainability of water supply interventions. The next generation of water insecurity metrics promises better monitoring and evaluation tools-particularly in the context of rapid global environmental change-once scale reliability across diverse contexts is better characterised.

Trend, regional variation and socioeconomic inequality in cardiovascular disease among the elderly population in China: evidence from a nationwide longitudinal study during 2011-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to pose a significant burden among the elderly population in China. There is a knowledge gap in the temporal trends, regional variations and socioeconomic inequalities among this vulnerable population. METHODS: This study conducted cross-sectional and cohort analyses based on four survey waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study among adults aged ≥60 years spanning 2011-2018 across 28 provinces. Cross-sectional analyses examined temporal trends, regional variations and socioeconomic inequalities in CVD prevalence. Cohort analyses identified individuals without CVD in 2011 and followed them up until 2018 to calculate CVD incidence. Generalised estimating equations (GEE) were employed to identify associated factors. RESULTS: A total of 5451, 7258, 8820 and 11 393 participants were eligible for cross-sectional analyses, and 4392 and 5396 participants were included in cohort analyses of CVD and comorbid CVD. In 2018, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted prevalence of CVD and comorbid CVD was 31.21% (95% CI 27.25% to 35.17%) and 3.83% (95% CI 2.85% to 4.81%), respectively. Trend analyses revealed a significant increase in the adjusted prevalence from 2011 to 2018 (p for trend <0.001). There were substantial provincial variations in the adjusted prevalence of CVD and comorbid CVD. Higher socioeconomic status (SES) participants exhibited higher prevalence, and the concentration curves and concentration indices suggested persistent but narrowing inequalities in CVD and comorbid CVD across survey waves. Cohort analyses from 2011 to 2018 yielded overall CVD and comorbid CVD incidence densities of 17.96 and 2.65 per 1000 person-years, respectively. GEE results indicated increased CVD risks among older individuals, women, higher SES participants and northern residents. CONCLUSION: More efforts should be taken to optimise strategies for high-quality CVD prevention and management in China's elderly population. Future interventions and policies should address age-specific and gender-specific, geographical, and socioeconomic disparities to ensure equitable access and outcomes for all.

Exploring the urban gradient in population health: insights from satellite-derived urbanicity classes across multiple countries and years in sub-Saharan Africa.

The demographic, ecological and socioeconomic changes associated with urbanisation are linked to changes in disease incidence, health service provision and mortality. These effects are heterogeneous between and within urban areas, yet without a clear definition of what constitutes an 'urban' area, their measurement and comparison are constrained. The definitions used vary between countries and over time hindering analyses of the relationship between urbanisation and health outcomes, evaluation of policy actions and results in uncertainties in estimated differences. While a binary urban-rural designation fails to capture the complexities of the urban-rural continuum, satellite data augmented with models of population density and built-up areas offer an opportunity to develop an objective, comparable and continuous measure which captures urbanisation gradient at high spatial resolution. We examine the urban gradient within the context of population health. We compare the categorisation of urban and rural areas (defined by national statistical offices) used in household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to an urban-rural gradient derived from augmented satellite data within a geospatial framework. Using nine Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 2005 and 2019 in six SSA countries, we then assess the extent of misalignment between urbanicity based on DHS categorisation compared with a satellite-derived measure, while discussing the implications on the coverage of key maternal health indicators. The proposed indicator provides a useful supplement to country-specific urbanicity definitions and reveals new health dynamics along the rural-urban gradient. Satellite-derived urbanicity measures will need frequent updates to align with years when household surveys are conducted.

TB morbidity estimates overlook the contribution of post-TB disability: evidence from urban Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Despite growing evidence of the long-term impact of tuberculosis (TB) on quality of life, Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates of TB-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) do not include post-TB morbidity, and evaluations of TB interventions typically assume treated patients return to pre-TB health. Using primary data, we estimate years of life lost due to disability (YLDs), years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) and DALYs associated with post-TB cardiorespiratory morbidity in a low-income country. METHODS: Adults aged ≥15 years who had successfully completed treatment for drug-sensitive pulmonary TB in Blantyre, Malawi (February 2016-April 2017) were followed-up for 3 years with 6-monthly and 12-monthly study visits. In this secondary analysis, St George's Respiratory Questionnaire data were used to match patients to GBD cardiorespiratory health states and corresponding disability weights (DWs) at each visit. YLDs were calculated for the study period and estimated for remaining lifespan using Malawian life table life expectancies. YLL were estimated using study mortality data and aspirational life expectancies, and post-TB DALYs derived. Data were disaggregated by HIV status and gender. RESULTS: At treatment completion, 222/403 (55.1%) participants met criteria for a cardiorespiratory DW, decreasing to 15.6% after 3 years, at which point two-thirds of the disability burden was experienced by women. Over 90% of projected lifetime-YLD were concentrated within the most severely affected 20% of survivors. Mean DWs in the 3 years post-treatment were 0.041 (HIV-) and 0.025 (HIV+), and beyond 3 years estimated as 0.025 (HIV-) and 0.010 (HIV+), compared with GBD DWs of 0.408 (HIV+) and 0.333 (HIV-) during active disease. Our results imply that the majority of TB-related morbidity occurs post-treatment. CONCLUSION: TB-related DALYs are greatly underestimated by overlooking post-TB disability. The total disability burden of TB is likely undervalued by both GBD estimates and economic evaluations of interventions, particularly those aimed at early diagnosis and prevention.

Incidence and outcomes of intrapartum-related neonatal encephalopathy in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To examine the incidence of intrapartum-related neonatal encephalopathy, and neonatal mortality and neurodevelopmental outcomes associated with it in low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: Reports were included when neonatal encephalopathy diagnosed clinically within 24 hours of birth in term or near-term infants born after intrapartum hypoxia-ischaemia defined as any of the following: (1) pH≤7.1 or base excess ≤-12 or lactate ≥6, (2) Apgar score ≤5 at 5 or 10 min, (3) continuing resuscitation at 5 or 10 min or (4) no cry from baby at 5 or 10 min. Peer-reviewed articles were searched from Ovid MEDLINE, Cochrane, Web of Science and WHO Global Index Medicus with date limits 1 November 2009 to 17 November 2021. Risk of bias was assessed using modified Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Inverse variance of heterogenicity was used for meta-analyses. RESULTS: There were 53 reports from 51 studies presenting data on 4181 children with intrapartum-related neonatal encephalopathy included in the review. Only five studies had data on incidence, which ranged from 1.5 to 20.3 per 1000 live births. Neonatal mortality was examined in 45 studies and in total 636 of the 3307 (19.2%) infants died. Combined outcome of death or moderate to severe neurodevelopmental disability was reported in 19 studies and occurred in 712 out of 1595 children (44.6%) with follow-up 1 to 3.5 years. CONCLUSION: Though there has been progress in some regions, incidence, case mortality and morbidity in intrapartum-related neonatal encephalopathy has been static in the last 10 years. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020177928.

Four decades of epidemiological data reveal trajectories towards malaria elimination in Kheda district (Gujarat), western part of India.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a main public health problem in India and was so particularly in the state of Gujarat in the western part of the country. This study assesses the effects of various interventions on malaria cases using data from the last 33 years (1987-2019). METHODS: Here we have analysed 33 years of malaria epidemiological data from a malaria clinic in Kheda district in Gujarat. The data were digitised yearly and monthly, age-wise and gender-wise, and descriptive analysis was performed to assess the effects of several interventions on malaria burden. RESULTS: During 1987-2019, our clinic diagnosed 5466 Plasmodium vivax and 4732 P. falciparum malaria cases. Overall, there was a declining trend in malaria cases except for the years 1991, 1994, 2004 and 2005. The year 2004 especially witnessed an epidemic in Kheda as well as throughout Gujarat. Malaria infections were most common (40%) among the 21-40 years age group. Fever was the most common symptom in all age groups. INTERPRETATION: Introduction of revised drug policy and improved surveillance technique (rapid diagnosis kits) have strengthened the diagnosis and treatment of malaria in the district. Use of pyrethroid in indoor residual insecticide spray has also strengthened vector control. Among the various interventions used, long-lasting insecticide nets and introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy have played significant roles in controlling malaria cases. A more drastic decline in P. falciparum cases versus P. vivax is evident, but the latter persists in high proportions and therefore new tools for malaria control will be needed for elimination.

Global and regional levels and trends of child and adolescent morbidity from 2000 to 2016: an analysis of years lost due to disability (YLDs).

INTRODUCTION: Non-fatal health loss makes a substantial contribution to the total disease burden among children and adolescents. An analysis of these morbidity patterns is essential to plan interventions that improve the health and well-being of children and adolescents. Our objective was to describe current levels and trends in the non-fatal disease burden from 2000 to 2016 among children and adolescents aged 0-19 years. METHODS: We used years lost due to disability (YLD) estimates in WHO's Global Health Estimates to describe the non-fatal disease burden from 2000 to 2016 for the age groups 0-27 days, 28 days-11 months, 1-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years and 15-19 years globally and by modified WHO region. To describe causes of YLDs, we used 18 broad cause groups and 54 specific cause categories. RESULTS: In 2016, the total number of YLDs globally among those aged 0-19 years was about 130 million, or 51 per 1000 population, ranging from 30 among neonates aged 0-27 days to 67 among older adolescents aged 15-19 years. Global progress since 2000 in reducing the non-fatal disease burden has been limited (53 per 1000 in 2000 for children and adolescents aged 0-19 years). The most important causes of YLDs included iron-deficiency anaemia and skin diseases for both sexes, across age groups and regions. For young children under 5 years of age, congenital anomalies, protein-energy malnutrition and diarrhoeal diseases were important causes of YLDs, while childhood behavioural disorders, asthma, anxiety disorders and depressive disorders were important causes for older children and adolescents. We found important variations between sexes and between regions, particularly among adolescents, that need to be addressed context-specifically. CONCLUSION: The disappointingly slow progress in reducing the global non-fatal disease burden among children and adolescents contrasts starkly with the major reductions in mortality over the first 17 years of this century. More effective action is needed to reduce the non-fatal disease burden among children and adolescents, with interventions tailored for each age group, sex and world region.

Completeness and quality of low back pain prevalence data in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

INTRODUCTION: Completeness of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data is acknowledged as a limitation. To date, no study has evaluated this issue for low back pain, a leading contributor to disease burden globally. METHODS: We retrieved reports, in any language, based on citation details from the GBD 2017 study website. Pairs of raters independently extracted the following data: number of prevalence reports tallied across countries, age groups, gender and years from 1987 to 2017. We also considered if studies enrolled a representative sample and/or used an acceptable measure of low back pain. RESULTS: We retrieved 488 country-level reports that provide prevalence data for 103 of 204 countries (50.5%), with most prevalence reports (61%) being for high-income countries. Only 16 countries (7.8%) have prevalence reports for each of the three decades of the GBD. Most of the reports (79%) did not use an acceptable measure of low back pain when estimating prevalence. CONCLUSION: We found incomplete coverage across countries and time, and limitations in the primary prevalence studies included in the GBD 2017 study. This means there is considerable uncertainty about GBD estimates of low back pain prevalence and the disease burden metrics derived from prevalence.

Who dies where? Estimating the percentage of deaths that occur at home.

INTRODUCTION: The majority of low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) have incomplete death registration systems and so the proportion of deaths that occur at home (ie, home death percentage) is generally unknown. However, home death percentage is important to estimate population-level causes of death from integration of data of deaths at home (verbal autopsies) and in hospitals (medical certification), and to monitor completeness of death notification and verbal autopsy data collection systems. This study proposes a method to estimate home death percentage using data readily available at the national and subnational level. METHODS: Data on place of death from 152 country-years in 49 countries from 2005 to 2019, predominantly from vital registration systems, were used to model home death percentage standardised for population age and cause distribution. A national-level model was developed using Bayesian model averaging to estimate national, regional and global home death percentage. A subnational-level model was also developed and assessed in populations where alternative data on home death percentage were available. RESULTS: Globally, it is estimated that 53.4% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 50.8%-55.9%) of deaths occur at home, slightly higher (59.7%, 95% UI 56.5%-62.7%) in LMICs, substantially higher in low-income countries (79.5%, 95% UI 77.3%-81.5%) and much lower (27.3%, 95% UI 25.2%-29.6%) in high-income countries. Countries with the highest home death percentage are mostly found in South, East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (above 90% in Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan). As expected, the national model has smaller error than the subnational model. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrates substantial diversity in the location of deaths in LMICs and fills a significant gap in knowledge about where people die, given its importance for health systems and policies. The high proportion of deaths in LMICs that occur at home reinforces the need for routine verbal autopsy to determine the causes of death.

The Individual Water Insecurity Experiences (IWISE) Scale: reliability, equivalence and validity of an individual-level measure of water security.

OBJECTIVE: The lack of a validated and cross-culturally equivalent scale for measuring individual-level water insecurity has prevented identification of those most vulnerable to it. Therefore, we developed the 12-item Individual Water InSecurity Experiences (IWISE) Scale to comparably measure individual experiences with access, use, and stability (reliability) of water. Here, we examine the reliability, cross-country equivalence, and cross-country and within-country validity of the scale in a cross-sectional sample. METHODS: IWISE items were implemented by the Gallup World Poll among nationally representative samples of 43 970 adults (>15 y) in 31 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Internal consistency was assessed with Cronbach's alpha. Equivalence was tested using multigroup confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA), the alignment method, and item response theory. Cross-country validity was assessed by regressing mean national IWISE scores on measures of economic, social, and water infrastructure development. Within-country validity was tested with logistic regression models of dissatisfaction with local water quality by IWISE score and regressing individual IWISE scores on per capita household income and difficulty getting by on current income. FINDINGS: Internal consistency was high; Cronbach's alpha was ≥0.89 in all countries. Goodness-of-fit statistics from MGCFA, the proportion of equivalent item thresholds and loadings in the alignment models, and Rasch output indicated equivalence across countries. Validity across countries was also established; country mean IWISE scores were negatively associated with gross domestic product and percentage of the population with access to basic water services, but positively associated with fertility rate. Validity within countries was also demonstrated; individuals' IWISE scores were positively associated with greater odds of dissatisfaction with water quality and negatively associated with lower financial standing. CONCLUSIONS: The IWISE Scale provides an equivalent measure of individual experiences with water access and use across LMICs. It will be useful for establishing and tracking changes in the prevalence of water insecurity and identifying groups who have been 'left behind'.

Are there sex differences in completeness of death registration and quality of cause of death statistics? Results from a global analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Recent studies suggest that more male than female deaths are registered and a higher proportion of female deaths are certified as 'garbage' causes (ie, vague or ill-defined causes of limited policy value). This can reduce the utility of sex-specific mortality statistics for governments to address health problems. To assess whether there are sex differences in completeness and quality of data from civil registration and vital statistics systems, we analysed available global death registration and cause of death data. METHODS: Completeness of death registration for females and males was compared in 112 countries, and in subsets of countries with incomplete death registration. For 64 countries with medical certificate of cause of death data, the level, severity and type of garbage causes was compared between females and males, standardised for the older age distribution and different cause composition of female compared with male deaths. RESULTS: For 42 countries with completeness of less than 95% (both sexes), average female completeness was 1.2 percentage points (p.p.) lower (95% uncertainty interval (UI) -2.5 to -0.2 p.p.) than for males. Aggregate female completeness for these countries was 7.1 p.p. lower (95% UI -12.2 to -2.0 p.p.; female 72.9%, male 80.1%), due to much higher male completeness in nine countries including India. Garbage causes were higher for females than males in 58 of 64 countries (statistically significant in 48 countries), but only by an average 1.4 p.p. (1.3-1.6 p.p.); results were consistent by severity and type of garbage. CONCLUSION: Although in most countries analysed there was no clear bias against females in death registration, there was clear evidence in a few countries of systematic undercounting of female deaths which substantially reduces the utility of mortality data. In countries with cause of death data, it was only of marginally poorer quality for females than males.

Subnational estimates of factors associated with under-five mortality in Kenya: a spatio-temporal analysis, 1993-2014.

BACKGROUND: To improve child survival, it is necessary to describe and understand the spatial and temporal variation of factors associated with child survival beyond national aggregates, anchored at decentralised health planning units. Therefore, we aimed to provide subnational estimates of factors associated with child survival while elucidating areas of progress, stagnation and decline in Kenya. METHODS: Twenty household surveys and three population censuses conducted since 1989 were assembled and spatially aligned to 47 subnational Kenyan county boundaries. Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression models accounting for inadequate sample size and spatio-temporal relatedness were fitted for 43 factors at county level between 1993 and 2014. RESULTS: Nationally, the coverage and prevalence were highly variable with 38 factors recording an improvement. The absolute percentage change (1993-2014) was heterogeneous ranging between 1% and 898%. At the county level, the estimates varied across space and over time with a majority showing improvements after 2008 which was preceded by a period of deterioration (late-1990 to early-2000). Counties in Northern Kenya were consistently observed to have lower coverage of interventions and remained disadvantaged in 2014 while areas around Central Kenya had and historically have had higher coverage across all intervention domains. Most factors in Western and South-East Kenya recorded moderate intervention coverage although having a high infection prevalence of both HIV and malaria. CONCLUSION: The heterogeneous estimates necessitates prioritisation of the marginalised counties to achieve health equity and improve child survival uniformly across the country. Efforts are required to narrow the gap between counties across all the drivers of child survival. The generated estimates will facilitate improved benchmarking and establish a baseline for monitoring child development goals at subnational level.

Bridging the gap: aligning economic research with disease burden.

INTRODUCTION: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is critical for identifying high-value interventions that address significant unmet need. This study examines whether CEA study volume is proportionate to the burden associated with 21 major disease categories. METHODS: We searched the Tufts Medical Center CEA and Global Health CEA Registries for studies published between 2010 and 2019 that measured cost per quality-adjusted life-year or cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY). Stratified by geographical region and country income level, the relationship between literature volume and disease burden (as measured by 2019 Global Burden of Disease estimates of population DALYs) was analysed using ordinary least squares linear regression. Additionally, the number of CEAs per intervention deemed 'essential' for universal health coverage by the Disease Control Priorities Network was assessed to evaluate how many interventions are supported by cost-effectiveness evidence. RESULTS: The results located below the regression line but with relatively high burden suggested disease areas that were 'understudied' compared with expected study volume. Understudied disease areas varied by region. Higher-income and upper-middle-income country (HUMIC) CEA volume for non-communicable diseases (eg, mental/behavioural disorders) was 100-fold higher than that in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). LLMIC study volume remained concentrated in HIV/AIDS as well as other communicable and neglected tropical diseases. Across 60 essential interventions, only 33 had any supporting CEA evidence, and only 21 had a decision context involving a low-income or middle-income country. With the exception of one intervention, available CEA evidence revealed the 21 interventions to be cost-effective, with base-case findings less than three times the GDP per capita. CONCLUSION: Our analysis highlights disease areas that require significant policy attention. Research gaps for highly prevalent, lethal or disabling diseases, as well as essential interventions may be stifling potential efficiency gains. Large research disparities between HUMICs and LLMICs suggest funding opportunities for improving allocative efficiency in LLMIC health systems.

Using the Demographic Health Survey wealth index to create family planning market segments based on absolute income levels.

Family planning market segmentation approaches typically include analysis by wealth, particularly when considering whether individuals can afford out-of-pocket expenses in the private sector. Most commonly, this is done using the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) wealth index, which uses a relative approach by summing household asset questions and categorising respondents into five groups from poorest to wealthiest within a country. In addition, the use of absolute measures, such as segmenting populations based on whether one lives below or above the International Poverty line, defined by the World Bank as US$1.90 per person per day, may provide further useful insights when designing strategies to ensure access to family planning. While such measures are not readily available in the DHS, a simple approach can be used to combine the wealth index and World Bank poverty lines to generate an absolute measure for an additional perspective when conducting family planning market segmentation. Family planning market size estimates were made for 24 low-income countries using wealth quintiles and World Bank poverty lines. The results show large variations in market size based on what measure is used, particularly for countries with a high density of poverty. Looking at both types of measures and understanding the reasons for the differences in market size estimates between the approaches can help lend a more nuanced understanding of the distribution of wealth and income in a country, leading to improved family planning market segmentation and ultimately to ensure more women have access to a method of their choice.

A vulnerability index for COVID-19: spatial analysis at the subnational level in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic calls for precision public health reflecting our improved understanding of who is the most vulnerable and their geographical location. We created three vulnerability indices to identify areas and people who require greater support while elucidating health inequities to inform emergency response in Kenya. METHODS: Geospatial indicators were assembled to create three vulnerability indices; Social VulnerabilityIndex (SVI), Epidemiological Vulnerability Index (EVI) and a composite of the two, that is, Social Epidemiological Vulnerability Index (SEVI) resolved at 295 subcounties in Kenya. SVI included 19 indicators that affect the spread of disease; socioeconomic deprivation, access to services and population dynamics, whereas EVI comprised 5 indicators describing comorbidities associated with COVID-19 severe disease progression. The indicators were scaled to a common measurement scale, spatially overlaid via arithmetic mean and equally weighted. The indices were classified into seven classes, 1-2 denoted low vulnerability and 6-7, high vulnerability. The population within vulnerabilities classes was quantified. RESULTS: The spatial variation of each index was heterogeneous across Kenya. Forty-nine northwestern and partly eastern subcounties (6.9 million people) were highly vulnerable, whereas 58 subcounties (9.7 million people) in western and central Kenya were the least vulnerable for SVI. For EVI, 48 subcounties (7.2 million people) in central and the adjacent areas and 81 subcounties (13.2 million people) in northern Kenya were the most and least vulnerable, respectively. Overall (SEVI), 46 subcounties (7.0 million people) around central and southeastern were more vulnerable, whereas 81 subcounties (14.4 million people) were least vulnerable. CONCLUSION: The vulnerability indices created are tools relevant to the county, national government and stakeholders for prioritisation and improved planning. The heterogeneous nature of the vulnerability indices underpins the need for targeted and prioritised actions based on the needs across the subcounties.

Population health, economics and ethics in the age of COVID-19.

Are the steps that have been taken to arrest the spread of COVID-19 justifiable? Specifically, are they likely to have improved public health understood according to widely used aggregate population health measures, such as Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) as much or more than alternatives? This is a reasonable question, since such measures have been promoted extensively in global and national health policy by influential actors, and they have become almost synonymous with quantification of public health. If the steps taken against COVID-19 did not meet this test, then either the measures or the policies must be re-evaluated. There are indications that policies against COVID-19 may have been unbalanced and therefore not optimal. A balanced approach to protecting population health should be proportionate in its effects across distinct health concerns at a moment, across populations over time and across populations over space. These criteria provide a guide to designing and implementing policies that diminish harm from COVID-19 while also providing due attention to other threats to aggregate population health. They should shape future policies in response to this pandemic and others.

Validating Joint External Evaluation reports with the quality of outbreak response in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Madagascar.

To date more than 100 countries have carried out a Joint External Evaluation (JEE) as part of their Global Health Security programme. The JEE is a detailed effort to assess a country's capacity to prevent, detect and respond to population health threats in 19 programmatic areas. To date no attempt has been made to determine the validity of these measures. We compare scores and commentary from the JEE in three countries to the strengths and weaknesses identified in the response to a subsequent large-scale outbreak in each of those countries. Relevant indicators were compared qualitatively, and scored as low, medium or in a high level of agreement between the JEE and the outbreak review in each of these three countries. Three reviewers independently reviewed each of the three countries. A high level of correspondence existed between score and text in the JEE and strengths and weaknesses identified in the review of an outbreak. In general, countries responded somewhat better than JEE scores indicated, but this appears to be due in part to JEE-related identification of weaknesses in that area. The improved response in large measure was due to more rapid requests for international assistance in these areas. It thus appears that even before systematic improvements are made in public health infrastructure that the JEE process may assist in improving outcomes in response to major outbreaks.