A multivalent mRNA monkeypox virus vaccine (BNT166) protects mice and macaques from orthopoxvirus disease.

In response to the 2022 outbreak of mpox driven by unprecedented human-to-human monkeypox virus (MPXV) transmission, we designed BNT166, aiming to create a highly immunogenic, safe, accessible, and scalable next-generation vaccine against MPXV and related orthopoxviruses. To address the multiple viral forms and increase the breadth of immune response, two candidate multivalent mRNA vaccines were evaluated pre-clinically: a quadrivalent vaccine (BNT166a; encoding the MPXV antigens A35, B6, M1, H3) and a trivalent vaccine (BNT166c; without H3). Both candidates induced robust T cell responses and IgG antibodies in mice, including neutralizing antibodies to both MPXV and vaccinia virus. In challenge studies, BNT166a and BNT166c provided complete protection from vaccinia, clade I, and clade IIb MPXV. Furthermore, immunization with BNT166a was 100% effective at preventing death and at suppressing lesions in a lethal clade I MPXV challenge in cynomolgus macaques. These findings support the clinical evaluation of BNT166, now underway (NCT05988203).

Co-immunization with hemagglutinin stem immunogens elicits cross-group neutralizing antibodies and broad protection against influenza A viruses.

Current influenza vaccines predominantly induce immunity to the hypervariable hemagglutinin (HA) head, requiring frequent vaccine reformulation. Conversely, the immunosubdominant yet conserved HA stem harbors a supersite that is targeted by broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs), representing a prime target for universal vaccines. Here, we showed that the co-immunization of two HA stem immunogens derived from group 1 and 2 influenza A viruses elicits cross-group protective immunity and neutralizing antibody responses in mice, ferrets, and nonhuman primates (NHPs). Immunized mice were protected from multiple group 1 and 2 viruses, and all animal models showed broad serum-neutralizing activity. A bnAb isolated from an immunized NHP broadly neutralized and protected against diverse viruses, including H5N1 and H7N9. Genetic and structural analyses revealed strong homology between macaque and human bnAbs, illustrating common biophysical constraints for acquiring cross-group specificity. Vaccine elicitation of stem-directed cross-group-protective immunity represents a step toward the development of broadly protective influenza vaccines.

Mechanism and spectrum of inhibition of a 4'-cyano modified nucleotide analog against diverse RNA polymerases of prototypic respiratory RNA viruses.

The development of safe and effective broad-spectrum antivirals that target the replication machinery of respiratory viruses is of high priority in pandemic preparedness programs. Here, we studied the mechanism of action of a newly discovered nucleotide analog against diverse RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRps) of prototypic respiratory viruses. GS-646939 is the active 5'-triphosphate metabolite of a 4'-cyano modified C-adenosine analog phosphoramidate prodrug GS-7682. Enzyme kinetics show that the RdRps of human rhinovirus type 16 (HRV-16) and enterovirus 71 incorporate GS-646939 with unprecedented selectivity; GS-646939 is incorporated 20-50-fold more efficiently than its natural ATP counterpart. The RdRp complex of respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus incorporate GS-646939 and ATP with similar efficiency. In contrast, influenza B RdRp shows a clear preference for ATP and human mitochondrial RNA polymerase does not show significant incorporation of GS-646939. Once incorporated into the nascent RNA strand, GS-646939 acts as a chain terminator although higher NTP concentrations can partially overcome inhibition for some polymerases. Modeling and biochemical data suggest that the 4'-modification inhibits RdRp translocation. Comparative studies with GS-443902, the active triphosphate form of the 1'-cyano modified prodrugs remdesivir and obeldesivir, reveal not only different mechanisms of inhibition, but also differences in the spectrum of inhibition of viral polymerases. In conclusion, 1'-cyano and 4'-cyano modifications of nucleotide analogs provide complementary strategies to target the polymerase of several families of respiratory RNA viruses.

A community science approach to public health and public trust in science.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the importance of health literacy and trust in pandemic management. Collaborating with the community to prepare for pandemics is incredibly effective in fostering understanding and building trust in public health and scientific research.

Detection of clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus in New York City.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of the H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b were detected in North America in the winter of 2021/2022. These viruses have spread across the Americas, causing morbidity and mortality in both wild and domestic birds as well as some mammalian species, including cattle. Many surveillance programs for wildlife as well as commercial poultry operations have detected these viruses. In this study, we conducted surveillance of avian species in the urban environment in New York City. We detected highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses in six samples from four different bird species and performed whole-genome sequencing. Sequencing analysis showed the presence of multiple different genotypes. Our work highlights that the interface between animals and humans that may give rise to zoonotic infections or even pandemics is not limited to rural environments and commercial poultry operations but extends into the heart of our urban centers.IMPORTANCEWhile surveillance programs for avian influenza viruses are often focused on migratory routes and their associated stop-over locations or commercial poultry operations, many bird species-including migratory birds-frequent or live in urban green spaces and wetlands. This brings them into contact with a highly dense population of humans and pets, providing an extensive urban animal-human interface in which the general public may have little awareness of circulating infectious diseases. This study focuses on virus surveillance of this interface, combined with culturally responsive science education and community outreach.

Scalable RT-LAMP-based SARS-CoV-2 testing for infection surveillance with applications in pandemic preparedness.

Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, limited diagnostic capacities prevented sentinel testing, demonstrating the need for novel testing infrastructures. Here, we describe the setup of a cost-effective platform that can be employed in a high-throughput manner, which allows surveillance testing as an acute pandemic control and preparedness tool, exemplified by SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics in an academic environment. The strategy involves self-sampling based on gargling saline, pseudonymized sample handling, automated RNA extraction, and viral RNA detection using a semiquantitative multiplexed colorimetric reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay with an analytical sensitivity comparable with RT-qPCR. We provide standard operating procedures and an integrated software solution for all workflows, including sample logistics, analysis by colorimetry or sequencing, and communication of results. We evaluated factors affecting the viral load and the stability of gargling samples as well as the diagnostic sensitivity of the RT-LAMP assay. In parallel, we estimated the economic costs of setting up and running the test station. We performed > 35,000 tests, with an average turnover time of < 6 h from sample arrival to result announcement. Altogether, our work provides a blueprint for fast, sensitive, scalable, cost- and labor-efficient RT-LAMP diagnostics, which is independent of potentially limiting clinical diagnostics supply chains.

Universal healthcare as pandemic preparedness: The lives and costs that could have been saved during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The fragmented and inefficient healthcare system in the United States leads to many preventable deaths and unnecessary costs every year. During a pandemic, the lives saved and economic benefits of a single-payer universal healthcare system relative to the status quo would be even greater. For Americans who are uninsured and underinsured, financial barriers to COVID-19 care delayed diagnosis and exacerbated transmission. Concurrently, deaths beyond COVID-19 accrued from the background rate of uninsurance. Universal healthcare would alleviate the mortality caused by the confluence of these factors. To evaluate the repercussions of incomplete insurance coverage in 2020, we calculated the elevated mortality attributable to the loss of employer-sponsored insurance and to background rates of uninsurance, summing with the increased COVID-19 mortality due to low insurance coverage. Incorporating the demography of the uninsured with age-specific COVID-19 and nonpandemic mortality, we estimated that a single-payer universal healthcare system would have saved about 212,000 lives in 2020 alone. We also calculated that US$105.6 billion of medical expenses associated with COVID-19 hospitalization could have been averted by a single-payer universal healthcare system over the course of the pandemic. These economic benefits are in addition to US$438 billion expected to be saved by single-payer universal healthcare during a nonpandemic year.

Pandemic origins and a One Health approach to preparedness and prevention: Solutions based on SARS-CoV-2 and other RNA viruses.

COVID-19 is the latest zoonotic RNA virus epidemic of concern. Learning how it began and spread will help to determine how to reduce the risk of future events. We review major RNA virus outbreaks since 1967 to identify common features and opportunities to prevent emergence, including ancestral viral origins in birds, bats, and other mammals; animal reservoirs and intermediate hosts; and pathways for zoonotic spillover and community spread, leading to local, regional, or international outbreaks. The increasing scientific evidence concerning the origins of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is most consistent with a zoonotic origin and a spillover pathway from wildlife to people via wildlife farming and the wildlife trade. We apply what we know about these outbreaks to identify relevant, feasible, and implementable interventions. We identify three primary targets for pandemic prevention and preparedness: first, smart surveillance coupled with epidemiological risk assessment across wildlife-livestock-human (One Health) spillover interfaces; second, research to enhance pandemic preparedness and expedite development of vaccines and therapeutics; and third, strategies to reduce underlying drivers of spillover risk and spread and reduce the influence of misinformation. For all three, continued efforts to improve and integrate biosafety and biosecurity with the implementation of a One Health approach are essential. We discuss new models to address the challenges of creating an inclusive and effective governance structure, with the necessary stable funding for cross-disciplinary collaborative research. Finally, we offer recommendations for feasible actions to close the knowledge gaps across the One Health continuum and improve preparedness and response in the future.

Safety and Immunogenicity of a Delayed Heterologous Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Vaccine Boost Following Different Priming Regimens: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A (H7N9) has caused multiple disease waves with evidence of strain diversification. Optimal influenza A (H7N9) prime-boost vaccine strategies are unknown. METHODS: We recruited participants who had received monovalent inactivated A/Shanghai/2/2013 (H7N9) vaccine (MIV) approximately 5 years earlier, as follows: MIV with MF59 (MF59 × 2 group), MIV with AS03 (AS03 × 2 group), unadjuvanted MIV (No Adj group), MIV with MF59 or AS03 followed by unadjuvanted MIV (Adjx1 group), and A/H7-naive (unprimed group). Participants were randomized to receive 1 dose of AS03-adjuvanted or unadjuvanted A/Hong Kong/125/2017 (H7N9) MIV and were followed for safety and immunogenicity using hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and neutralizing antibody assays. RESULTS: We enrolled 304 participants: 153 received the adjuvanted boost and 151 received the unadjuvanted boost. At 21 days postvaccination, the proportion of participants with HAI antibody titers against the boosting vaccine strain of ≥40 in the adjuvanted and unadjuvanted arms, respectively, were 88% and 49% in MF59 × 2 group, 89% and 75% in AS03 × 2 group, 59% and 20% in No Adj group, 94% and 55% in Adjx1group, and 9% and 11% in unprimed group. CONCLUSIONS: Serologic responses to a heterologous A(H7N9) MIV boost were highest in participants primed and boosted with adjuvant-containing regimens. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03738241.

A Systematic Review of Predictor Composition, Outcomes, Risk of Bias, and Validation of COVID-19 Prognostic Scores.

BACKGROUND: Numerous prognostic scores have been published to support risk stratification for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We performed a systematic review to identify the scores for confirmed or clinically assumed COVID-19 cases. An in-depth assessment and risk of bias (ROB) analysis (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool [PROBAST]) was conducted for scores fulfilling predefined criteria ([I] area under the curve [AUC)] ≥ 0.75; [II] a separate validation cohort present; [III] training data from a multicenter setting [≥2 centers]; [IV] point-scale scoring system). RESULTS: Out of 1522 studies extracted from MEDLINE/Web of Science (20/02/2023), we identified 242 scores for COVID-19 outcome prognosis (mortality 109, severity 116, hospitalization 14, long-term sequelae 3). Most scores were developed using retrospective (75.2%) or single-center (57.1%) cohorts. Predictor analysis revealed the primary use of laboratory data and sociodemographic information in mortality and severity scores. Forty-nine scores were included in the in-depth analysis. The results indicated heterogeneous quality and predictor selection, with only five scores featuring low ROB. Among those, based on the number and heterogeneity of validation studies, only the 4C Mortality Score can be recommended for clinical application so far. CONCLUSIONS: The application and translation of most existing COVID scores appear unreliable. Guided development and predictor selection would have improved the generalizability of the scores and may enhance pandemic preparedness in the future.

Project NextGen: Developing the Next Generation of COVID-19 Vaccines and Therapeutics to Respond to the Present and Prepare for the Future.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemiology and product landscapes have changed considerably since onset of the pandemic. Safe and effective vaccines and therapeutics are available, but the continual emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants introduce limitations in our ability to prevent and treat disease. Project NextGen is a collaboration between the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, part of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health, that is leveraging public-private partnerships to address gaps in the nation's COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic capabilities. Targeted investments will advance promising next-generation candidates through the most difficult phases of clinical development to encourage further private sector interest for later stage development and commercial availability. New commercial vaccines and therapeutics that are more durable and effective across variants will improve our fight against COVID-19 and transform our response to future threats.

Engaging Communities in Emerging Infectious Disease Mitigation to Improve Public Health and Safety.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for potent community-based tools to improve preparedness. We developed a community health-safety climate (HSC) measure to assess readiness to adopt health behaviors during a pandemic. We conducted a mixed-methods study incorporating qualitative methods (e.g., focus groups) to generate items for the measure and quantitative data from a February 2021 national survey to test reliability, multilevel construct, and predictive and nomologic validities. The 20-item HSC measure is unidimensional (Cronbach α = 0.87). All communities had strong health-safety climates but with significant differences between communities (F = 10.65; p<0.001), and HSC levels predicted readiness to adopt health-safety behaviors. HSC strength moderated relationships between HSC level and behavioral indicators; higher climate homogeneity demonstrated stronger correlations. The HSC measure can predict community readiness to adopt health-safety behaviors in communities to inform interventions before diseases spread, providing a valuable tool for public health authorities and policymakers during a pandemic.

Proceedings of the Clinical Microbiology Open 2023: discussions about pandemic preparedness.

The 4th Clinical Microbiology Open (CMO) took place in Carlsbad, California, on 10 and 11 February 2023. This event facilitated discussion between clinical and public health laboratory directors, government agencies, and industry representatives from the companies that make up ASM's Corporate Council. While many topics were discussed, much of the discussion focused on pandemic preparedness. There were four major questions addressed: (i) When is the perfect the enemy of good in pandemic testing? (ii) What other types of pathogens might cause another pandemic and how would this affect laboratory response? (iii) What research is needed to better understand the effectiveness of the pandemic response? (iv) What have we learned about the utility of self and at-home testing in future pandemics? This review serves as a summary of these discussions.

Field Research Is Essential to Counter Virological Threats.

The interface between humans and wildlife is changing and, with it, the potential for pathogen introduction into humans has increased. Avian influenza is a prominent example, with an ongoing outbreak showing the unprecedented expansion of both geographic and host ranges. Research in the field is essential to understand this and other zoonotic threats. Only by monitoring dynamic viral populations and defining their biology in situ can we gather the information needed to ensure effective pandemic preparation.

Status and future developments for downstream processing of biological products: Perspectives from the Recovery XIX yield roundtable discussions.

Governments and biopharmaceutical organizations aggressively leveraged expeditious communication capabilities, decision models, and global strategies to make a COVID-19 vaccine happen within a period of 12 months. This was an unusual effort and cannot be transferred to normal times. However, this focus on a single vaccine has also led to other treatments and drug developments being sidelined. Society expects the pharmaceutical industry to provide an uninterrupted supply of medicines. However, it is often overlooked how complex the manufacture of these compounds is and what logistics are required, not to mention the time needed to develop new drugs. The overarching theme, therefore, is patient access and how we can help ensure access and extend it to low- and middle-income countries. Despite unceasing efforts to make medications available to all patient populations, this must never be done at the expense of patient safety. A major fraction of the costs in biopharmaceutical manufacturing are for drug discovery, process development, and clinical studies. Infrastructure costs are very difficult to quantify because they often depend on whether a greenfield facility or an existing, depreciated facility is used or adapted for a new product. To accelerate process development concepts of platform process and prior knowledge are increasingly leveraged. While more traditional protein therapeutics continue to dominate the field, we are also experiencing the exciting emergence and evolution of other therapeutic formats (bispecifics, tetravalent mAbs, antibody-drug conjugates, enzymes, peptides, etc.) that offer unique treatment options for patients. Protein modalities are still dominant, but new modalities are being developed that can be learned from including advanced therapeutics-like cell and gene therapies. The industry must develop a model-based strategy for process development and technologies such as continuous integrated biomanufacturing must be adopted. The overall conclusion is that the pandemic pace was unsustainable, focused on vaccine delivery at the expense of other modalities/disease targets, and had implications for professional and personal life (work-life balance). Routinely reducing development time from 10 years to 1 year is nearly impossible to achieve. Environmental aspects of sustainable downstream processing are also described.

How could a pooled testing policy have performed in managing the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic? Results from a simulation study.

A coordinated testing policy is an essential tool for responding to emerging epidemics, as was seen with COVID-19. However, it is very difficult to agree on the best policy when there are multiple conflicting objectives. A key objective is minimizing cost, which is why pooled testing (a method that involves pooling samples taken from multiple individuals and analyzing this with a single diagnostic test) has been suggested. In this article, we present results from an extensive and realistic simulation study comparing testing policies based on individually testing subjects with symptoms (a policy resembling the UK strategy at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic), individually testing subjects at random or pools of subjects randomly combined and tested. To compare these testing methods, a dynamic model compromised of a relationship network and an extended SEIR model is used. In contrast to most existing literature, testing capacity is considered as fixed and limited rather than unbounded. This article then explores the impact of the proportion of symptomatic infections on the expected performance of testing policies. Symptomatic testing performs better than pooled testing unless a low proportion of infections are symptomatic. Additionally, we include the novel feature for testing of non-compliance and perform a sensitivity analysis for different compliance assumptions. Our results suggest for the pooled testing scheme to be superior to testing symptomatic people individually, only a small proportion of the population ( > 10 % $$ >10\% $$ ) needs to not comply with the testing procedure.

Challenges in assessing the immunization status of adults in Germany-lessons from a population-based VACCELERATE survey on polio vaccination.

PURPOSE: Considering the re-emergence of poliomyelitis (PM) in non-endemic regions, it becomes apparent that vaccine preventable diseases can rapidly develop epi- or even pandemic potential. Evaluation of the current vaccination status is required to inform patients, health care providers and policy makers about vaccination gaps. METHODS: Between October 28 2022 and November 23 2022, 5,989 adults from the VACCELEREATE Volunteer Registry completed an electronic case report form on their previous PM vaccine doses including number, types/-valencies and the time of administration based on their vaccination records. A uni-/multivariable regression analysis was performed to assess associations in participant characteristics and immunization status. RESULTS: Among German volunteers (n = 5,449), complete PM immunization schedule was found in 1,981 (36%) participants. Uncertain immunization, due to unknown previous PM vaccination (n = 313, 6%), number of doses (n = 497, 9%), types/-valencies (n = 1,233, 23%) or incoherent immunization schedule (n = 149, 3%) was found in 40% (n = 2,192). Out of 1,276 (23%) participants who reported an incomplete immunization schedule, 62 (1%) never received any PM vaccine. A total of 5,074 (93%) volunteers reported having been vaccinated at least once and 2,087 (38%) indicated that they received vaccination within the last ten years. Female sex, younger age, as well as availability of first vaccination record were characteristics significantly associated with complete immunization (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Full PM immunization schedule was low and status frequently classified as uncertain due to lack of details on administered doses. There is an obviousneed for improved recording to enable long-term access to detailed vaccination history in the absence of a centralized immunization register.

Innovative approaches for vaccine trials as a key component of pandemic preparedness - a white paper.

BACKGROUND: WHO postulates the application of adaptive design features in the global clinical trial ecosystem. However, the adaptive platform trial (APT) methodology has not been widely adopted in clinical research on vaccines. METHODS: The VACCELERATE Consortium organized a two-day workshop to discuss the applicability of APT methodology in vaccine trials under non-pandemic as well as pandemic conditions. Core aspects of the discussions are summarized in this article. RESULTS: An "ever-warm" APT appears ideally suited to improve efficiency and speed of vaccine research. Continuous learning based on accumulating APT trial data allows for pre-planned adaptations during its course. Given the relative design complexity, alignment of all stakeholders at all stages of an APT is central. Vaccine trial modelling is crucial, both before and in a pandemic emergency. Various inferential paradigms are possible (frequentist, likelihood, or Bayesian). The focus in the interpandemic interval may be on research gaps left by industry trials. For activation in emergency, template Disease X protocols of syndromal design for pathogens yet unknown need to be stockpiled and updated regularly. Governance of a vaccine APT should be fully integrated into supranational pandemic response mechanisms. DISCUSSION: A broad range of adaptive features can be applied in platform trials on vaccines. Faster knowledge generation comes with increased complexity of trial design. Design complexity should not preclude simple execution at trial sites. Continuously generated evidence represents a return on investment that will garner societal support for sustainable funding. Adaptive design features will naturally find their way into platform trials on vaccines.

Pandemic preparedness improves national-level SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality data completeness: a cross-country ecologic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in national SARS-CoV-2 infection surveillance capabilities may compromise global enumeration and tracking of COVID-19 cases and deaths and bias analyses of the pandemic's tolls. Taking account of heterogeneity in data completeness may thus help clarify analyses of the relationship between COVID-19 outcomes and standard preparedness measures. METHODS: We examined country-level associations of pandemic preparedness capacities inventories, from the Global Health Security (GHS) Index and Joint External Evaluation (JEE), on SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 death data completion rates adjusted for income. Analyses were stratified by 100, 100-300, 300-500, and 500-700 days after the first reported case in each country. We subsequently reevaluated the relationship of pandemic preparedness on SARS-CoV-2 infection and age-standardized COVID-19 death rates adjusted for cross-country differentials in data completeness during the pre-vaccine era. RESULTS: Every 10% increase in the GHS Index was associated with a 14.9% (95% confidence interval 8.34-21.8%) increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection completion rate and a 10.6% (5.91-15.4%) increase in the death completion rate during the entire observation period. Disease prevention (infections: ß = 1.08 [1.05-1.10], deaths: ß = 1.05 [1.04-1.07]), detection (infections: ß = 1.04 [1.01-1.06], deaths: ß = 1.03 [1.01-1.05]), response (infections: ß = 1.06 [1.00-1.13], deaths: ß = 1.05 [1.00-1.10]), health system (infections: ß = 1.06 [1.03-1.10], deaths: ß = 1.05 [1.03-1.07]), and risk environment (infections: ß = 1.27 [1.15-1.41], deaths: ß = 1.15 [1.08-1.23]) were associated with both data completeness outcomes. Effect sizes of GHS Index on infection completion (Low income: ß = 1.18 [1.04-1.34], Lower Middle income: ß = 1.41 [1.16-1.71]) and death completion rates (Low income: ß = 1.19 [1.09-1.31], Lower Middle income: ß = 1.25 [1.10-1.43]) were largest in LMICs. After adjustment for cross-country differences in data completeness, each 10% increase in the GHS Index was associated with a 13.5% (4.80-21.4%) decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infection rate at 100 days and a 9.10 (1.07-16.5%) decrease at 300 days. For age-standardized COVID-19 death rates, each 10% increase in the GHS Index was with a 15.7% (5.19-25.0%) decrease at 100 days and a 10.3% (- 0.00-19.5%) decrease at 300 days. CONCLUSIONS: Results support the pre-pandemic hypothesis that countries with greater pandemic preparedness capacities have larger SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality data completeness rates and lower COVID-19 disease burdens. More high-quality data of COVID-19 impact based on direct measurement are needed.

How feasible is it to mobilize $31 billion a year for pandemic preparedness and response? An economic growth modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Covid-19 has reinforced health and economic cases for investing in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR). The World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO) propose that low- and middle-income governments and donor countries should invest $31.1 billion each year for PPR. We analyse, based on the projected economic growth of countries between 2022 and 2027, how likely it is that low- and middle-income country governments and donors can mobilize the estimated funding. METHODS: We modelled trends in economic growth to project domestic health spending by low- and middle-income governments and official development assistance (ODA) by donors for years 2022 to 2027. We modelled two scenarios for countries and donors - a constant and an optimistic scenario. Under the constant scenario we assume that countries and donors continue to dedicate the same proportion of their health spending and ODA as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI), respectively, as they did during baseline (the latest year for which data are available). In the optimistic scenario, we assume a yearly increase of 2.5% in health spending as a share of GDP for countries and ODA as a share of GNI for donors. FINDINGS: Our analysis shows that low-income countries would need to invest on average 37%, lower-middle income countries 9%, and upper-middle income countries 1%, of their total health spending on PPR each year under the constant scenario to meet the World Bank WHO targets. Donors would need to allocate on average 8% of their total ODA across all sectors to PPR each year to meet their target. CONCLUSIONS: The World Bank WHO targets for PPR will not be met unless low- and middle-income governments and donors spend a much higher share of their funding on PPR. Even under optimistic growth scenarios, low-income and lower-middle income countries will require increased support from global health donors. The donor target cannot be met using the yearly increase in ODA under any scenario. If the country and donor targets are not met, the highest-impact health security measures need to be prioritized for funding. Alternative sources of PPR financing could include global taxation (e.g., on financial transactions, carbon, or airline flights), cancelling debt, and addressing illicit financial flows. There is also a need for continued work on estimating current PPR costs and funding requirements in order to arrive at more enduring and reliable estimates.