Predicting thresholds for population replacement gene drives.

BACKGROUND: Threshold-dependent gene drives (TDGDs) could be used to spread desirable traits through a population, and are likely to be less invasive and easier to control than threshold-independent gene drives. Engineered Genetic Incompatibility (EGI) is an extreme underdominance system previously demonstrated in Drosophila melanogaster that can function as a TDGD when EGI agents of both sexes are released into a wild-type population. RESULTS: Here we use a single generation fitness assay to compare the fecundity, mating preferences, and temperature-dependent relative fitness to wild-type of two distinct genotypes of EGI agents. We find significant differences in the behavior/performance of these EGI agents that would not be predicted a priori based on their genetic design. We report a surprising temperature-dependent change in the predicted threshold for population replacement in an EGI agent that drives ectopic expression of the developmental morphogen pyramus. CONCLUSIONS: The single-generation fitness assay presented here could reduce the amount of time required to estimate the threshold for TDGD strategies for which hybrid genotypes are inviable. Additionally, this work underscores the importance of empirical characterization of multiple engineered lines, as behavioral differences can arise in unique genotypes for unknown reasons.

Wolbachia Invasion in Mosquitoes with Incomplete CI, Imperfect Maternal Transmission and Maturation Delay.

The mechanism of cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) is important in the study of Wolbachia invasion in wild mosquitoes. Su et al. (Bull Math Biol 84(9):95, 2022) proposed a delay differential equation model by relating the CI effect to maturation delay. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of this model by allowing the same density-dependent death rate and distinct density-independent death rates. Through analyzing the existence and stability of equilibria, we obtain the parameter conditions for Wolbachia successful invasion if the maternal transmission is perfect. While if the maternal transmission is imperfect, we give the ranges of parameters to ensure failure invasion, successful invasion and partially suppressing, respectively. Meanwhile, numerical simulations indicate that the system may exhibit monostable and bistable dynamics when parameters vary. Particularly, in the bistable situation an unstable separatrix, like a line, exists when choosing constant functions as initial values; and the maturation delay affects this separatrix in an interesting way.

Gene drive and resilience through renewal with next generation Cleave and Rescue selfish genetic elements.

Gene drive-based strategies for modifying populations face the problem that genes encoding cargo and the drive mechanism are subject to separation, mutational inactivation, and loss of efficacy. Resilience, an ability to respond to these eventualities in ways that restore population modification with functional genes, is needed for long-term success. Here, we show that resilience can be achieved through cycles of population modification with "Cleave and Rescue" (ClvR) selfish genetic elements. ClvR comprises a DNA sequence-modifying enzyme such as Cas9/gRNAs that disrupts endogenous versions of an essential gene and a recoded version of the essential gene resistant to cleavage. ClvR spreads by creating conditions in which those lacking ClvR die because they lack functional versions of the essential gene. Cycles of modification can, in principle, be carried out if two ClvR elements targeting different essential genes are located at the same genomic position, and one of them, ClvRn+1, carries a Rescue transgene from an earlier element, ClvRnClvRn+1 should spread within a population of ClvRn, while also bringing about a decrease in its frequency. To test this hypothesis, we first show that multiple ClvRs, each targeting a different essential gene, function when located at a common chromosomal position in Drosophila We then show that when several of these also carry the Rescue from a different ClvR, they spread to transgene fixation in populations fixed for the latter and at its expense. Therefore, genetic modifications of populations can be overwritten with new content, providing an ongoing point of control.

PIMMS43 is required for malaria parasite immune evasion and sporogonic development in the mosquito vector.

After being ingested by a female Anopheles mosquito during a bloodmeal on an infected host, and before they can reach the mosquito salivary glands to be transmitted to a new host, Plasmodium parasites must establish an infection of the mosquito midgut in the form of oocysts. To achieve this, they must first survive a series of robust innate immune responses that take place prior to, during, and immediately after ookinete traversal of the midgut epithelium. Understanding how parasites may evade these responses could highlight new ways to block malaria transmission. We show that an ookinete and sporozoite surface protein designated as PIMMS43 (Plasmodium Infection of the Mosquito Midgut Screen 43) is required for parasite evasion of the Anopheles coluzzii complement-like response. Disruption of PIMMS43 in the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei triggers robust complement activation and ookinete elimination upon mosquito midgut traversal. Silencing components of the complement-like system through RNAi largely restores ookinete-to-oocyst transition but oocysts remain small in size and produce a very small number of sporozoites that additionally are not infectious, indicating that PIMMS43 is also essential for sporogonic development in the oocyst. Antibodies that bind PIMMS43 interfere with parasite immune evasion when ingested with the infectious blood meal and significantly reduce the prevalence and intensity of infection. PIMMS43 genetic structure across African Plasmodium falciparum populations indicates allelic adaptation to sympatric vector populations. These data add to our understanding of mosquito-parasite interactions and identify PIMMS43 as a target of malaria transmission blocking.

Lack of robust evidence for a Wolbachia infection in Anopheles gambiae from Burkina Faso.

The endosymbiont Wolbachia can have major effects on the reproductive fitness, and vectorial capacity of host insects and may provide new avenues to control mosquito-borne pathogens. Anopheles gambiae s.l is the major vector of malaria in Africa but the use of Wolbachia in this species has been limited by challenges in establishing stable transinfected lines and uncertainty around native infections. High frequencies of infection of Wolbachia have been previously reported in An. gambiae collected from the Valle du Kou region of Burkina Faso in 2011 and 2014. Here, we re-evaluated the occurrence of Wolbachia in natural samples, collected from Valle du Kou over a 12-year time span, and in addition, expanded sampling to other sites in Burkina Faso. Our results showed that, in contrast to earlier reports, Wolbachia is present at an extremely low prevalence in natural population of An. gambiae. From 5341 samples analysed, only 29 were positive for Wolbachia by nested PCR representing 0.54% of prevalence. No positive samples were found with regular PCR. Phylogenetic analysis of 16S rRNA gene amplicons clustered across supergroup B, with some having similarity to sequences previously found in Anopheles from Burkina Faso. However, we cannot discount the possibility that the amplicon positive samples we detected were due to environmental contamination or were false positives. Regardless, the lack of a prominent native infection in An. gambiae s.l. is encouraging for applications utilizing Wolbachia transinfected mosquitoes for malaria control.

Wolbachia wAlbB inhibits bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic fever viruses in Culicoides midge cells.

Culicoides midges are hematophagous insects that transmit arboviruses of veterinary importance. These viruses include bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic fever virus (EHDV). The endosymbiont Wolbachia pipientis Hertig spreads rapidly through insect host populations and has been demonstrated to inhibit viral pathogen transmission in multiple mosquito vectors. Here, we have demonstrated a replication inhibitory effect on BTV and EHDV in a Wolbachia (wAlbB strain)-infected Culicoides sonorensis Wirth and Jones W8 cell line. Viral replication was significantly reduced by day 5 for BTV and by day 2 for EHDV as detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) of the non-structural NS3 gene of both viruses. Evaluation of innate cellular immune responses as a cause of the inhibitory effect showed responses associated with BTV but not with EHDV infection. Wolbachia density also did not play a role in the observed pathogen inhibitory effects, and an alternative hypothesis is suggested. Applications of Wolbachia-mediated pathogen interference to impact disease transmission by Culicoides midges are discussed.

Cleave and Rescue, a novel selfish genetic element and general strategy for gene drive.

There is great interest in being able to spread beneficial traits throughout wild populations in ways that are self-sustaining. Here, we describe a chromosomal selfish genetic element, CleaveR [Cleave and Rescue (ClvR)], able to achieve this goal. ClvR comprises two linked chromosomal components. One, germline-expressed Cas9 and guide RNAs (gRNAs)-the Cleaver-cleaves and thereby disrupts endogenous copies of a gene whose product is essential. The other, a recoded version of the essential gene resistant to cleavage and gene conversion with cleaved copies-the Rescue-provides essential gene function. ClvR enhances its transmission, and that of linked genes, by creating conditions in which progeny lacking ClvR die because they have no functional copies of the essential gene. In contrast, those who inherit ClvR survive, resulting in an increase in ClvR frequency. ClvR is predicted to spread to fixation under diverse conditions. To test these predictions, we generated a ClvR element in Drosophila melanogasterClvRtko is located on chromosome 3 and uses Cas9 and four gRNAs to disrupt melanogaster technical knockout (tko), an X-linked essential gene. Rescue activity is provided by tko from Drosophila virilisClvRtko results in germline and maternal carryover-dependent inactivation of melanogaster tko (>99% per generation); lethality caused by this loss is rescued by the virilis transgene; ClvRtko activities are robust to genetic diversity in strains from five continents; and uncleavable but functional melanogaster tko alleles were not observed. Finally, ClvRtko spreads to transgene fixation. The simplicity of ClvR suggests it may be useful for altering populations in diverse species.

Population replacement of benzimidazole-resistant Haemonchus contortus with susceptible strains: evidence of changes in the resistance status.

The spread of anthelmintic resistance (AR) in nematode populations threatens the viability of sheep production systems worldwide, and warrants the adoption of sensitive, practical, and standardized tests to detect AR. The aim of this study was to characterize the replacement of an Haemonchus contortus population resistant to benzimidazoles (BZDs) by a susceptible one, by means of both phenotypic and genotypic techniques. Phenotypic methods to assess BZD resistance included in vivo tests, such as the fecal egg count reduction test (FECRT), and in vitro tests, such as the egg hatch assay (EHA). Additionally, genotypification of polymorphisms associated with BZD resistance by sequencing a fragment of the isotype 1 ß-tubulin gene was carried out. The initial, BZD-resistant population (initial Balcarce population) exhibited an egg count reduction (ECR) of 59.3%. Following refugium replacement, the final population (final Balcarce population) exhibited an ECR of 95.2%. For the initial Balcarce population, the median effective dose (ED50) for the EHA was 0.607 µg thiabendazole (TBZ)/mL, with a rate of eclosion at a discriminating dose (EDD) of 0.1 µg TBZ/mL of 76.73%. For the final Balcarce population, ED50 was 0.02 µg TBZ/mL, and EDD was 1.97%. In the initial population, 93% of the analyzed individuals exhibited genotypic combinations associated with BZD resistance (53% Phe/Phe167-Tyr/Tyr200, 37% Phe/Tyr167-Phe/Tyr200, and 3% Phe/Tyr167-Glu/Leu198). Conversely, no combination associated with resistance was found in individuals from the final population. All of the tests were useful for detecting AR to BZDs. The results from the genetic and phenotypical studies were consistent, and the resulting information greatly aided in interpreting the outcomes of the population replacement and the potential impact of this strategy on management of AR.

Exploring the evolution of archaic humans through sedimentary ancient DNA.

Recent success in the retrieval of nuclear DNA of ancient humans and animals from cave sediments paves the way for genome-wide studies of past populations directly from sediments. In three studies, nuclear genomes of different species were obtained from the sediments of multiple archeological caves and their genetic histories were revealed, including an unknown population replacement of Neanderthals from Estatuas cave in Spain, which was recovered using a new DNA capture approach. By extending sediments as a source of DNA beyond fossils, this breakthrough is of particular significance to the field of ancient human genomics, which brings about more possibilities for exploring the history of past population migration, evolution and adaptation within larger time-scales and geographical areas where no fossil remains exist. Here, we mainly review the significance of the technical advances in retrieving ancient nuclear DNA from sediments and present new insights into the genetic history of Neanderthals revealed by this technique. By combining ancient genomes retrieved from fossils and additional mitochondrial DNA extracted from sediments of archaeological sites, we may begin investigating diverse archaic populations and examine their genetic relationships, movements and replacements in detail.

Genetic stability of Aedes aegypti populations following invasion by wMel Wolbachia.

BACKGROUND: Wolbachia wMel is the most commonly used strain in rear and release strategies for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that aim to inhibit the transmission of arboviruses such as dengue, Zika, Chikungunya and yellow fever. However, the long-term establishment of wMel in natural Ae. aegypti populations raises concerns that interactions between Wolbachia wMel and Ae. aegypti may lead to changes in the host genome, which could affect useful attributes of Wolbachia that allow it to invade and suppress disease transmission. RESULTS: We applied an evolve-and-resequence approach to study genome-wide genetic changes in Ae. aegypti from the Cairns region, Australia, where Wolbachia wMel was first introduced more than 10 years ago. Mosquito samples were collected at three different time points in Gordonvale, Australia, covering the phase before (2010) and after (2013 and 2018) Wolbachia releases. An additional three locations where Wolbachia replacement happened at different times across the last decade were also sampled in 2018. We found that the genomes of mosquito populations mostly remained stable after Wolbachia release, with population differences tending to reflect the geographic location of the populations rather than Wolbachia infection status. However, outlier analysis suggests that Wolbachia may have had an influence on some genes related to immune response, development, recognition and behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Ae. aegypti populations remained geographically distinct after Wolbachia wMel releases in North Australia despite their Wolbachia infection status. At some specific genomic loci, we found signs of selection associated with Wolbachia, suggesting potential evolutionary impacts can happen in the future and further monitoring is warranted.

A wAlbB Wolbachia Transinfection Displays Stable Phenotypic Effects across Divergent Aedes aegypti Mosquito Backgrounds.

Aedes mosquitoes harboring intracellular Wolbachia bacteria are being released in arbovirus and mosquito control programs. With releases taking place around the world, understanding the contribution of host variation to Wolbachia phenotype is crucial. We generated a Wolbachia transinfection (wAlbBQ) in Aedes aegypti and performed backcrossing to introduce the infection into Australian or Malaysian nuclear backgrounds. Whole Wolbachia genome sequencing shows that the wAlbBQ transinfection is nearly identical to the reference wAlbB genome, suggesting few changes since the infection was first introduced to A. aegypti over 15 years ago. However, these sequences were distinct from other available wAlbB genome sequences, highlighting the potential diversity of wAlbB in natural Aedes albopictus populations. Phenotypic comparisons demonstrate the effects of wAlbB infection on egg hatching and nuclear background on fecundity and body size but no interactions between wAlbB infection and nuclear background for any trait. The wAlbB infection was stable at high temperatures and showed perfect maternal transmission and cytoplasmic incompatibility regardless of the host background. Our results demonstrate the stability of wAlbB across host backgrounds and point to its long-term effectiveness for controlling arbovirus transmission and mosquito populations. IMPORTANCEWolbachia bacteria are being used to control the transmission of dengue virus and other arboviruses by mosquitoes. For Wolbachia release programs to be effective globally, Wolbachia infections must be stable across mosquito populations from different locations. In this study, we transferred Wolbachia (strain wAlbB) to Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with an Australian genotype and introduced the infection to Malaysian mosquitoes through backcrossing. We found that the phenotypic effects of Wolbachia are stable across both mosquito backgrounds. We sequenced the genome of wAlbB and found very few genetic changes despite spending over 15 years in a novel mosquito host. Our results suggest that the effects of Wolbachia infections are likely to remain stable across time and host genotype.

Mosquito Control Based on Pesticides and Endosymbiotic Bacterium Wolbachia.

Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever and Zika, have posed a serious threat to human health around the world. Controlling vector mosquitoes is an effective method to prevent these diseases. Spraying pesticides has been the main approach of reducing mosquito population, but it is not a sustainable solution due to the growing insecticide resistance. One promising complementary method is the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes into wild mosquito populations, which has been proven to be a novel and environment-friendly way for mosquito control. In this paper, we incorporate consideration of releasing infected sterile mosquitoes and spraying pesticides to aim to reduce wild mosquito populations based on the population replacement model. We present the estimations for the number of wild mosquitoes or infection density in a normal environment and then discuss how to offset the effect of the heatwave, which can cause infected mosquitoes to lose Wolbachia infection. Finally, we give the waiting time to suppress wild mosquito population to a given threshold size by numerical simulations.

Modeling confinement and reversibility of threshold-dependent gene drive systems in spatially-explicit Aedes aegypti populations.

BACKGROUND: The discovery of CRISPR-based gene editing and its application to homing-based gene drive systems has been greeted with excitement, for its potential to control mosquito-borne diseases on a wide scale, and concern, for the invasiveness and potential irreversibility of a release. Gene drive systems that display threshold-dependent behavior could potentially be used during the trial phase of this technology, or when localized control is otherwise desired, as simple models predict them to spread into partially isolated populations in a confineable manner, and to be reversible through releases of wild-type organisms. Here, we model hypothetical releases of two recently engineered threshold-dependent gene drive systems-reciprocal chromosomal translocations and a form of toxin-antidote-based underdominance known as UDMEL-to explore their ability to be confined and remediated. RESULTS: We simulate releases of Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector of dengue, Zika, and other arboviruses, in Yorkeys Knob, a suburb of Cairns, Australia, where previous biological control interventions have been undertaken on this species. We monitor spread to the neighboring suburb of Trinity Park to assess confinement. Results suggest that translocations could be introduced on a suburban scale, and remediated through releases of non-disease-transmitting male mosquitoes with release sizes on the scale of what has been previously implemented. UDMEL requires fewer releases to introduce, but more releases to remediate, including of females capable of disease transmission. Both systems are expected to be confineable to the release site; however, spillover of translocations into neighboring populations is less likely. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis supports the use of translocations as a threshold-dependent drive system capable of spreading disease-refractory genes into Ae. aegypti populations in a confineable and reversible manner. It also highlights increased release requirements when incorporating life history and population structure into models. As the technology nears implementation, further ecological work will be essential to enhance model predictions in preparation for field trials.

Wolbachia transinfections in Culex quinquefasciatus generate cytoplasmic incompatibility.

Culex quinquefasciatus is an important mosquito vector of a number of viral and protozoan pathogens of humans and animals, and naturally carries the endosymbiont Wolbachia pipientis, strain wPip. Wolbachia are used in two distinct vector control strategies: firstly, population suppression caused by mating incompatibilities between mass-released transinfected males and wild females; and secondly, the spread of pathogen transmission-blocking strains through populations. Using embryonic microinjection, two novel Wolbachia transinfections were generated in C. quinquefasciatus using strains native to the mosquito Aedes albopictus: a wAlbB single infection, and a wPip plus wAlbA superinfection. The wAlbB infection showed full bidirectional cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) with wild-type C. quinquefasciatus in reciprocal crosses. The wPipwAlbA superinfection showed complete unidirectional CI, and therefore population invasion potential. Whereas the wAlbB strain showed comparatively low overall densities, similar to the native wPip, the wPipwAlbA superinfection reached over 400-fold higher densities in the salivary glands compared to the native wPip, suggesting it may be a candidate for pathogen transmission blocking.

Wolbachia spread dynamics in multi-regimes of environmental conditions.

Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever and Zika kill more than 700,000 people each year in the world. A novel strategy to control these diseases employs the bacterium Wolbachia whose infection in mosquitoes blocks virus replication. The prerequisite for this measure is to release Wolbachia -infected mosquitoes to replace wild population. Due to the fluctuation of environmental conditions for mosquito growth, we develop and analyze a model of differential equations with parameters randomly changing over multiple environmental regimes. By comparing the dynamics between the stochastic system and constructed auxiliary systems, combined with other techniques, we provide sharp estimates on the threshold releasing level for Wolbachia fixation. We define the alarm period of disease transmission to measure the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. Our numerical simulations suggest that more frequent inter-regime transitions help reduce the alarm period, and the disease transmission is more sensitive to the average climatic conditions than the number of sub-regimes over a given time period. Further numerical examples also indicate that the reduction in the waiting time to suppress 95% of wild population is more evident when the releasing amount is increased up to a double of the wild population.

Use of age-stage structural models to seek optimal Wolbachia-infected male mosquito releases for mosquito-borne disease control.

Due to the lack of vaccines and effective clinical cures, current methods to control mosquito-borne viral diseases such as dengue and Zika are primarily targeting to eradicate the major mosquito vectors. However, traditional means, including larval source reduction and applications of insecticides etc, are not sufficient to keep vector population density below the epidemic risk threshold. An innovative and operational strategy is to release Wolbachia-infected male mosquitoes into wild areas to sterilize wild female mosquitoes by cytoplasmic incompatibility. To help design optimal release strategies before large scale and expensive operations, we started with an age-stage discrete model to track daily abundances of wild female mosquitoes, which fitted the field data collected by Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2015 to 2017 with an average Pearson correlation coefficient 0.7283. Then, we modeled the Wolbachia interference by introducing the proportional releases of Wolbachia-infected males, and eight optimal release policies which guarantee more than 95% suppression efficiency were sought. Finally, we assessed the robustness of the optimality of the eight release policies by allowing the migration of females or the contamination of Wolbachia-infected females by two further extended mathematical models.

Streamlined SMFA and mosquito dark-feeding regime significantly improve malaria transmission-blocking assay robustness and sensitivity.

BACKGROUND: The development of malaria transmission-blocking strategies including the generation of malaria refractory mosquitoes to replace the wild populations through means of gene drives hold great promise. The standard membrane feeding assay (SMFA) that involves mosquito feeding on parasitized blood through an artificial membrane system is a vital tool for evaluating the efficacy of transmission-blocking interventions. However, despite the availability of several published protocols, the SMFA remains highly variable and broadly insensitive. METHODS: The SMFA protocol was optimized through coordinated culturing of Anopheles coluzzii mosquitoes and Plasmodium falciparum parasite coupled with placing mosquitoes under a strict dark regime before, during, and after the gametocyte feed. RESULTS: A detailed description of essential steps is provided toward synchronized generation of highly fit An. coluzzii mosquitoes and P. falciparum gametocytes in preparation for an SMFA. A dark-infection regime that emulates the natural vector-parasite interaction system is described, which results in a significant increase in the infection intensity and prevalence. Using this optimal SMFA pipeline, a series of putative transmission-blocking antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) were screened, confirming that melittin and magainin can interfere with P. falciparum development in the vector. CONCLUSION: A robust SMFA protocol that enhances the evaluation of interventions targeting human malaria transmission in laboratory setting is reported. Melittin and magainin are identified as highly potent antiparasitic AMPs that can be used for the generation of refractory Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes.

The Complex Admixture History and Recent Southern Origins of Siberian Populations.

Although Siberia was inhabited by modern humans at an early stage, there is still debate over whether it remained habitable during the extreme cold of the Last Glacial Maximum or whether it was subsequently repopulated by peoples with recent shared ancestry. Previous studies of the genetic history of Siberian populations were hampered by the extensive admixture that appears to have taken place among these populations, because commonly used methods assume a tree-like population history and at most single admixture events. Here we analyze geogenetic maps and use other approaches to distinguish the effects of shared ancestry from prehistoric migrations and contact, and develop a new method based on the covariance of ancestry components, to investigate the potentially complex admixture history. We furthermore adapt a previously devised method of admixture dating for use with multiple events of gene flow, and apply these methods to whole-genome genotype data from over 500 individuals belonging to 20 different Siberian ethnolinguistic groups. The results of these analyses indicate that there have been multiple layers of admixture detectable in most of the Siberian populations, with considerable differences in the admixture histories of individual populations. Furthermore, most of the populations of Siberia included here, even those settled far to the north, appear to have a southern origin, with the northward expansions of different populations possibly being driven partly by the advent of pastoralism, especially reindeer domestication. These newly developed methods to analyze multiple admixture events should aid in the investigation of similarly complex population histories elsewhere.

Deploying dengue-suppressing Wolbachia : Robust models predict slow but effective spatial spread in Aedes aegypti.

A novel strategy for controlling the spread of arboviral diseases such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya is to transform mosquito populations with virus-suppressing Wolbachia. In general, Wolbachia transinfected into mosquitoes induce fitness costs through lower viability or fecundity. These maternally inherited bacteria also produce a frequency-dependent advantage for infected females by inducing cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), which kills the embryos produced by uninfected females mated to infected males. These competing effects, a frequency-dependent advantage and frequency-independent costs, produce bistable Wolbachia frequency dynamics. Above a threshold frequency, denoted pˆ, CI drives fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections through local populations; but below pˆ, infection frequencies tend to decline to zero. If pˆ is not too high, CI also drives spatial spread once infections become established over sufficiently large areas. We illustrate how simple models provide testable predictions concerning the spatial and temporal dynamics of Wolbachia introductions, focusing on rate of spatial spread, the shape of spreading waves, and the conditions for initiating spread from local introductions. First, we consider the robustness of diffusion-based predictions to incorporating two important features of wMel-Aedes aegypti biology that may be inconsistent with the diffusion approximations, namely fast local dynamics induced by complete CI (i.e., all embryos produced from incompatible crosses die) and long-tailed, non-Gaussian dispersal. With complete CI, our numerical analyses show that long-tailed dispersal changes wave-width predictions only slightly; but it can significantly reduce wave speed relative to the diffusion prediction; it also allows smaller local introductions to initiate spatial spread. Second, we use approximations for pˆ and dispersal distances to predict the outcome of 2013 releases of wMel-infected Aedes aegypti in Cairns, Australia, Third, we describe new data from Ae. aegypti populations near Cairns, Australia that demonstrate long-distance dispersal and provide an approximate lower bound on pˆ for wMel in northeastern Australia. Finally, we apply our analyses to produce operational guidelines for efficient transformation of vector populations over large areas. We demonstrate that even very slow spatial spread, on the order of 10-20 m/month (as predicted), can produce area-wide population transformation within a few years following initial releases covering about 20-30% of the target area.

Wolbachia spread dynamics in stochastic environments.

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease with 100 million people infected annually. A novel strategy for dengue control uses the bacterium Wolbachia to invade dengue vector Aedes mosquitoes. As the impact of environmental heterogeneity on Wolbachia spread dynamics in natural areas has been rarely quantified, we develop a model of differential equations for which the environmental conditions switch randomly between two regimes. We find some striking phenomena that random regime transitions could drive Wolbachia to extinction from certain initial states confirmed Wolbachia fixation in homogeneous environments, and mosquito releasing facilitates Wolbachia invasion more effectively when the regimes transit frequently. By superimposing the phase spaces of the ODE systems defined in each regime, we identify the threshold curves below which Wolbachia invades the whole population, which extends the theory of threshold infection frequency to stochastic environments.