Decision-Making for Preventive Interventions in Asymptomatic Patients.

The decision to treat an incidental finding in an asymptomatic patient results from careful risk-benefit consideration and is often challenging. One of the main aspects is after how many years the group who underwent the intervention and faced the immediate treatment complications will gain a treatment benefit over the conservatively managed group, which maintains a lower but ongoing risk. We identify a common error in decision-making. We illustrate how a risk-based approach using the classical break-even point at the Kaplan-Meier curves can be misleading and advocate for using an outcome-based approach, counting the cumulative number of lost quality-adjusted life years instead. In clinical practice, we often add together the yearly risk of the natural course up to the time point where the number equals the risk of the intervention and assume that the patient will benefit from an intervention beyond this point in time. It corresponds to the crossing of the Kaplan-Meier curves. However, because treatment-related poor outcome occurs at the time of the intervention, while the poor outcome in the conservative group occurs over a given time period, the true benefit of retaining more quality-adjusted life years in the interventional group emerges at a much later time. To avoid overtreatment of patients with asymptomatic diseases, decision-making should be outcome-based with counting the cumulative loss of quality-adjusted life years, rather than risk-based, comparing the interventional risk with the ongoing yearly risk of the natural course.

Project Baby Bear: Rapid precision care incorporating rWGS in 5 California children's hospitals demonstrates improved clinical outcomes and reduced costs of care.

Genetic disorders are a leading contributor to mortality in neonatal and pediatric intensive care units (ICUs). Rapid whole-genome sequencing (rWGS)-based rapid precision medicine (RPM) is an intervention that has demonstrated improved clinical outcomes and reduced costs of care. However, the feasibility of broad clinical deployment has not been established. The objective of this study was to implement RPM based on rWGS and evaluate the clinical and economic impact of this implementation as a first line diagnostic test in the California Medicaid (Medi-Cal) program. Project Baby Bear was a payor funded, prospective, real-world quality improvement project in the regional ICUs of five tertiary care children's hospitals. Participation was limited to acutely ill Medi-Cal beneficiaries who were admitted November 2018 to May 2020, were <1 year old and within one week of hospitalization, or had just developed an abnormal response to therapy. The whole cohort received RPM. There were two prespecified primary outcomes-changes in medical care reported by physicians and changes in the cost of care. The majority of infants were from underserved populations. Of 184 infants enrolled, 74 (40%) received a diagnosis by rWGS that explained their admission in a median time of 3 days. In 58 (32%) affected individuals, rWGS led to changes in medical care. Testing and precision medicine cost $1.7 million and led to $2.2-2.9 million cost savings. rWGS-based RPM had clinical utility and reduced net health care expenditures for infants in regional ICUs. rWGS should be considered early in ICU admission when the underlying etiology is unclear.

Cost-effectiveness of maribavir versus conventional antiviral therapies for post-transplant refractory cytomegalovirus infection with or without genotypic resistance: A US perspective.

This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of maribavir versus investigator-assigned therapy (IAT; valganciclovir/ganciclovir, foscarnet, or cidofovir) for post-transplant refractory cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection with or without resistance. A two-stage Markov model was designed using data from the SOLSTICE trial (NCT02931539), real-world multinational observational studies, and published literature. Stage 1 (0-78 weeks) comprised clinically significant CMV (csCMV), non-clinically significant CMV (n-csCMV), and dead states; stage 2 (78 weeks-lifetime) comprised alive and dead states. Total costs (2022 USD) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated for the maribavir and IAT cohorts. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated to determine cost-effectiveness against a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY. Compared with IAT, maribavir had lower costs ($139 751 vs $147 949) and greater QALYs (6.04 vs 5.83), making it cost-saving and more cost-effective. Maribavir had higher acquisition costs compared with IAT ($80 531 vs $65 285), but lower costs associated with administration/monitoring ($16 493 vs $27 563), adverse events (AEs) ($11 055 vs $16 114), hospitalization ($27 157 vs $33 905), and graft loss ($4516 vs $5081), thus making treatment with maribavir cost-saving. Maribavir-treated patients spent more time without CMV compared with IAT-treated patients (0.85 years vs 0.68 years), leading to lower retreatment costs for maribavir (cost savings: -$42 970.80). Compared with IAT, maribavir was more cost-effective for transplant recipients with refractory CMV, owing to better clinical efficacy and avoidance of high costs associated with administration, monitoring, AEs, and hospitalizations. These results can inform healthcare decision-makers on the most effective use of their resources for post-transplant refractory CMV treatment.

Psychometric Performance of the EQ Health and Wellbeing Short in a United Kingdom Population Sample.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the psychometric performance and construct validity of the EQ Health and Wellbeing Short (EQ-HWB-S), using a validated measure, the EQ-5D-5L, as a comparator. METHODS: The experimental version of the EQ-HWB-S was compared with the EQ-5D-5L to assess the psychometric performance of the measures. Data were drawn from the valuation stages of the Extending the Quality-Adjusted Life-Year project (UK general population, n = 429) and the EQ-5D-5L UK valuation pilot study (UK general population, n = 248). Construct validity was assessed based on convergent validity, using Spearman correlations and Pearson correlations. Known-group validity was assessed by estimating effect sizes to assess the ability of the EQ-HWB-S and EQ-5D-5L to discriminate between known groups based on "healthy" status, presence of a long-term condition, health and life satisfaction, age, and employment status. The degree of agreement in utility values across instruments was also evaluated using Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: Strong associations (rs ≥ 0.5, P < .001) were found between conceptually overlapping dimensions and the utility scores of the EQ-HWB-S and EQ-5D-5L. The instruments performed comparably in discriminating between known groups including healthy versus unhealthy groups (based on the visual analog scale ≥ 80), long-term condition (vs no long-term condition), and above versus below average health and life satisfaction and employed (vs unemployed and long-term sick). CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-HWB-S performs favorably with utility values successfully discriminating between groups in which differences are expected. Convergence between the EQ-HWB-S and EQ-5D-5L is evident, especially between conceptually overlapping dimensions.

Can Generalized Cost-effectiveness Analysis Leverage Meaningful Use of Novel Value Elements in Pharmacoeconomics to Inform Medicare Drug Price Negotiation?

OBJECTIVES: Decision makers considering using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to inform health-technology assessment must contend with documented and controversial shortfalls of CEA, including its assumption of disease severity independence and static pricing. ISPOR has recently introduced novel value elements besides direct healthcare cost and effectiveness for the patient, and these should be captured in CEA. Although novel value elements advance our understanding of "what" should be measured (value of hope, severity of disease, health equity, etc), there is limited direction on "how" to measure them in conventional CEA. Furthermore, with Medicare empowered to set drug prices under the Inflation Reduction Act, it is not clear what role CEA might have on where prices are set, given objections to the quality-adjusted life year in conventional approaches. METHODS: We critically reviewed the evidence for expanding conventional CEA methods to a more generalized approach of generalized CEA (GCEA). RESULTS: GCEA accounts for methods that address objections to the quality-adjusted life year and incorporate novel value elements. Although GCEA offers advantages, it also requires further research to develop "off-the-shelf" resources to help inform, for example, maximum fair price in the context of Medicare drug price negotiation. CONCLUSIONS: Should a shift toward GCEA reveal that the societal value of novel medicines exceeds their market-based costs, which will raise the key question of what market failure Medicare negotiation is meant to solve, if any, and therefore what the appropriate role of such negotiation might be to maximize the value society might garner from the development of novel medicines.

This Dead or That Dead: Framing Effects in the Evaluation of Health States.

OBJECTIVES: Current approaches to health state valuation rely on credible classification of states as either "better than dead" or "worse than dead" (WTD). We investigate how such evaluations of health states are affected by the framing in pairwise comparison tasks. METHODS: We conducted an online survey with 361 participants to compare the propensity to evaluate a state as WTD under 6 frames: (A) using a regular time trade-off (TTO) choice task, (B) using a lead-time TTO choice task, (C) excluding the immediacy of death, (D) avoiding reference to the process of dying, (E) focusing on longevity, and (F) focusing on improvements in quality of life. Each participant evaluated 9 EQ-5D-5L health states using 3 frames. The frames were compared using several statistical approaches to confirm robustness to indirect comparisons or respondent heterogeneity and inattentiveness. RESULTS: The odds of a state being evaluated as WTD, compared with frame A, increase 2.7-fold and 1.5-fold in frame B and E, respectively, and decrease >5-fold in frame F. Frames C and D do not differ significantly from frame A. CONCLUSIONS: Different framings for questions about whether a state is WTD or better than dead, even if theoretically equivalent, yield substantially different results. Notably, whether a state is evaluated as WTD differs greatly between the regular TTO and lead-time TTO choice tasks and when either final outcomes or improvements over time are considered.

Health state utility estimates for value assessments of novel treatments in Huntington's disease: a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease with a devastating impact on patients and their families. Quantifying how treatments affect patient outcomes is critical for informing reimbursement decisions. Many countries mandate a formal value assessment in which the treatment benefit is measured as quality-adjusted life-years, calculated with the use of utility estimates that reflect respondents' preferences for health states. OBJECTIVE: To summarize published health state utility data in HD and identify gaps and uncertainties in the data available that could be used to inform value assessments. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review of studies that used preference-based instruments (e.g., EQ-5D and SF-6D) to estimate utility values for people with HD. The studies were published between January 2012 and December 2022. RESULTS: Of 383 articles screened, 16 articles reported utility values estimated in 11 distinct studies. The utility measure most frequently reported was EQ-5D (9/11 studies). Two studies reported SF-6D data; one used time trade-off methods to value health state descriptions (vignettes). Although utility scores generally worsened to a lower value with increased HD severity, the estimates varied considerably across studies. The EQ-5D index range was 0.89 - 0.72 for mild/prodromal HD and 0.71 - 0.37 for severe/late-stage disease. CONCLUSIONS: This study uncovered high variability in published utility estimates, indicating substantial uncertainty in existing data. Further research is needed to better understand preferences and valuation across all stages and domains of HD symptoms and the degree to which generic utility measures capture the impact of cognitive changes on quality of life.

Cost-effectiveness analysis for avelumab first-line maintenance treatment of advanced urothelial carcinoma in Scotland.

Aim: The cost-effectiveness of avelumab first-line maintenance treatment for locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma in Scotland was assessed. Materials & methods: A partitioned survival model was developed comparing avelumab plus best supportive care (BSC) versus BSC alone, incorporating JAVELIN Bladder 100 trial data, costs from national databases and published literature and clinical expert validation of assumptions. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated using lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Results: Avelumab plus BSC had incremental costs of £9446 and a QALY gain of 0.63, leading to a base-case (deterministic) ICER of £15,046 per QALY gained, supported by robust sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Avelumab first-line maintenance is likely to be a cost-effective treatment for locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma in Scotland.

What is this article about? This study looked at the costs of avelumab when given as maintenance treatment for people in Scotland with advanced urothelial carcinoma, compared with the longer survival and other benefits that it provides. How was this done? Researchers estimated the costs and treatment benefits expected with avelumab using data from a clinical trial called JAVELIN Bladder 100, national databases, data from previously published studies and expert opinions. What were the results? Costs associated with using avelumab maintenance treatment for people with advanced urothelial carcinoma in Scotland were considered to be acceptable based on the benefits it provides. What do the results of the study mean? These results support the use of avelumab first-line maintenance as a standard treatment for people with advanced urothelial carcinoma in Scotland.

Cost-utility analysis of second-line axicabtagene ciloleucel versus standard of care in Japan based on the ZUMA-7 trial.

Aim: To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing axicabtagene ciloleucel (axi-cel) with standard of care (SoC; salvage chemoimmunotherapy, followed by high-dose therapy with autologous stem cell rescue for responders) for second-line (2L) treatment of adults with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma (r/r LBCL) in the pivotal ZUMA-7 trial data from a Japanese payer perspective. Materials & methods: A three-state partitioned survival model was utilized using population and clinical inputs from the ZUMA-7 trial data over a lifetime horizon. Results: Axi-cel was associated with greater incremental quality-adjusted life-years (2.06) and higher incremental total costs ($48,685.59/¥6.9 million) leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $23,590.34/¥3.3 million per quality-adjusted life-years compared with SoC. Conclusion: Axi-cel is a cost-effective treatment alternative to SoC for 2L treatment of adults with r/r LBCL.

[Box: see text].

Cost-effectiveness analysis 3L of axicabtagene ciloleucel vs tisagenlecleucel and lisocabtagene maraleucel in Japan.

Aim: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was performed to compare axicabtagene ciloleucel (axi-cel) with tisagenlecleucel (tisa-cel) and lisocabtagene (liso-cel) for treatment of relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma in adult patients after ≥2 lines of therapy in Japan. Materials & methods: Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using the partition survival mixture cure model based on the ZUMA-1 trial and adjusted to the JULIET and TRANSCEND trials using matching-adjusted indirect comparisons. Results & conclusion: Axi-cel was associated with greater incremental life years (3.13 and 2.85) and incremental quality-adjusted life-years (2.65 and 2.24), thus generated lower incremental direct medical costs (-$976.29 [-¥137,657] and -$242.00 [-¥34,122]), compared with tisa-cel and liso-cel. Axi-cel was cost-effective option compared with tisa-cel and liso-cel from a Japanese payer's perspective.

[Box: see text].

Cost-utility of VISITAG SURPOINT in catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Clinical studies have demonstrated the safety, efficacy, and efficiency of VISITAG SURPOINT® (VS), which provides important lesion markers during catheter ablation (CA) of atrial fibrillation (AF). The present study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of CA with VS compared to CA without VS in AF from the publicly-funded German and Belgium healthcare perspectives. METHODS: We constructed a two-stage cost utility model that included a decision tree to simulate clinical events, costs, and utilities during the first year after the index procedure and a Markov model to simulate transitions between health states throughout a patient's lifetime. Model inputs included published literature, a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials AF outcomes, and publicly available administrative data on costs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the robustness of the model. RESULTS: CA with VS was associated with lower per patient costs vs CA without VS (Germany: €3295 vs. €3936, Belgium: €3194 vs. €3814) and similar quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (Germany: 5.35 vs. 5.34, Belgium: 5.68 vs. 5.67). CA with VS was the dominant ablation strategy (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios: Germany: €-52,455/QALY, Belgium: €-50,676/QALY). The model results were robust and not highly sensitive to variation to individual parameters with regard to QALYs or costs. Freedom from AF and procedure time had the greatest impact on model results, highlighting the importance of these outcomes in ablation. CONCLUSIONS: CA with VS resulted in cost savings and QALY gains compared to CA without VS, supporting the increased adoption of VS in CA in Germany and Belgium.

Cost-effectiveness of surveillance intervals after curative resection of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Major guidelines consistently recommend 5 years of postoperative surveillance for patients with colorectal cancer. However, they differ in their recommendations for examination intervals and whether they should vary according to disease stage. Furthermore, there are no reports on the cost-effectiveness of the different surveillance schedules. The objective of this study is to identify the most cost-effective surveillance intervals after curative resection of colorectal cancer. METHODS: A total of 3701 patients who underwent curative surgery for colorectal cancer at the National Cancer Center Hospital were included. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted for the five surveillance strategies with reference to the guidelines. Expected medical costs and quality-adjusted life years after colorectal cancer resection were calculated using a state-transition model by Monte Carlo simulation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life years gained was calculated for each strategy, with a maximum acceptable value of 43 500-52 200 USD (5-6 million JPY). RESULTS: Stages I, II and III included 1316, 1082 and 1303 patients, respectively, with 45, 140 and 338 relapsed cases. For patients with stage I disease, strategy 4 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $26 555/quality-adjusted life year) was considered to be the most cost-effective, while strategies 3 ($83 071/quality-adjusted life year) and 2 ($289 642/quality-adjusted life year) exceeded the threshold value. In stages II and III, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for strategy 3 was the most cost-effective option, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $18 358-22 230/quality-adjusted life year. CONCLUSIONS: In stage I, the cost-effectiveness of intensive surveillance is very poor and strategy 4 is the most cost-effective. Strategy 3 is the most cost-effective in stages II and III.

A cost-utility study of elective haemorrhoidectomies in Canada.

AIM: The aim was to estimate the 10-year cost-utility of haemorrhoidectomy surgery with preference-based measures of health using Canadian health utility measures and costs. METHODS: Patients undergoing elective haemorrhoidectomies by general and colorectal surgeons in British Columbia, Vancouver, between September 2015 and November 2022, completed preoperatively and postoperatively the EuroQol five-dimension five-level health-related quality of life questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L). Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) attributable to surgery were calculated by discounting preoperative and postoperative health utility values derived from the EQ-5D-5L. Costs were measured from a health system perspective which incorporated costs of hospital stay and specialists' fees. Results are presented in 2021 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: Of 94 (47%) patients who completed both the preoperative and postoperative questionnaires, the mean gain in QALYs 10 years after surgery was 1.0609, assuming a 3.5% annual discounting rate. The average cost of the surgery was $3166. The average cost per QALY was $2985 when benefits of the surgery were assumed to accrue for 10 years. The cost per QALY was higher for women ($3821) compared with men ($2485). Participants over the age of 70 had the highest cost per QALY ($8079/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: Haemorrhoidectomies have been associated with significant gains in health status and are inexpensive relative to the associated gains in quality of life based on patients' perspectives of their improvement in health and well-being.

Development of algorithms for estimating the Child Health Utility 9D from Caregiver Priorities and Child Health Index of Life with Disability.

PURPOSE: The primary aim was to determine Child Health Utility 9D (CHU9D) utilities from the Caregiver Priorities and Child Health Index of Life with Disabilities (CPCHILD) for non-ambulatory children with cerebral palsy (CP). METHODS: One hundred and eight surveys completed by Australian parents/caregivers of children with CP were analysed. Spearman's coefficients were used to investigate the correlations between the two instruments. Ordinary least square, robust MM-estimator, and generalised linear models (GLM) with four combinations of families and links were developed to estimate CHU9D utilities from either the CPCHILD total score or CPCHILD domains scores. Internal validation was performed using 5-fold cross-validation and random sampling validation. The best performing algorithms were identified based on mean absolute error (MAE), concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), and the difference between predicted and observed means of CHU9D. RESULTS: Moderate correlations (ρ 0.4-0.6) were observed between domains of the CHU9D and CPCHILD instruments. The best performing algorithm when considering the CPCHILD total score was a generalised linear regression (GLM) Gamma family and logit link (MAE = 0.156, CCC = 0.508). Additionally, the GLM Gamma family logit link using CPCHILD comfort and emotion, quality of life, and health domain scores also performed well (MAE = 0.152, CCC = 0.552). CONCLUSION: This study established algorithms for estimating CHU9D utilities from CPCHILD scores for non-ambulatory children with CP. The determined algorithms can be valuable for estimating quality-adjusted life years for cost-utility analysis when only the CPCHILD instrument is available. However, further studies with larger sample sizes and external validation are recommended to validate these findings.

Rasch validation of the short form (8 item) PC-QoL questionnaire and applicability of use as a health state classification system for a new preference-based measure.

BACKGROUND: The parent-proxy paediatric chronic cough quality of life questionnaire (PC-QoL) is a commonly used measure of spillover quality of life in parents of children with chronic cough. To date, spillover health utility in these parents is not routinely estimated largely due to the lack of a suitable instrument. Their perspective is not included in economic evaluations of interventions for their children. We explored developing a health state classification system based on the PC-QoL for measuring health utility spill over in this population. METHODS: This study included PC-QoL 8-item responses of 653 parents participating in a prospective cohort study about paediatric chronic cough. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and Rasch analysis were used to examine dimensionality and select potential items and level structure. RESULTS: EFA indicated that the PC-QoL had one underlying domain. Rasch analysis indicated threshold disordering in all items which improved when items were collapsed from seven to four levels. Two demonstrated differential item functioning (DIF) by diagnosis or ethnicity and were excluded from the final scale. This scale satisfied Rasch assumptions of local independence and unidimensionality and demonstrated acceptable fit to the Rasch model. It was presented to and modified by an expert panel and a consumer panel. The resulting classification system had six items, each with four levels. DISCUSSION: The PC-QoL can conform to a Rasch model with minor modifications. It may be a good basis for the classification system of a child cough-specific PBM. A valuation study is required to estimate preference weights for each item and to estimate health utility in parents of children with chronic cough.

The Estimated Lifetime Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Lost Due to Chlamydia, Gonorrhea, and Trichomoniasis in the United States in 2018.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive evaluation of the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost attributable to chlamydia, gonorrhea, andtrichomoniasis in the United States is lacking. METHODS: We adapted a previous probability-tree model to estimate the average number of lifetime QALYs lost due to genital chlamydia, gonorrhea, and trichomoniasis, per incident infection and at the population level, by sex and age group. We conducted multivariate sensitivity analyses to address uncertainty around key parameter values. RESULTS: The estimated total discounted lifetime QALYs lost for men and women, respectively, due to infections acquired in 2018, were 1541 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 186-6358) and 111 872 (95% UI, 29 777-267 404) for chlamydia, 989 (95% UI, 127-3720) and 12 112 (95% UI, 2 410-33 895) for gonorrhea, and 386 (95% UI, 30-1851) and 4576 (95% UI, 13-30 355) for trichomoniasis. Total QALYs lost were highest among women aged 15-24 years with chlamydia. QALYs lost estimates were highly sensitive to disutilities (health losses) of infections and sequelae, and to duration of infections and chronic sequelae for chlamydia and gonorrhea in women. CONCLUSIONS: The 3 sexually transmitted infections cause substantial health losses in the United States, particularly gonorrhea and chlamydia among women. The estimates of lifetime QALYs lost per infection help to prioritize prevention policies and inform cost-effectiveness analyses of sexually transmitted infection interventions.

Estimation of the Lifetime Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) Lost Due to Syphilis Acquired in the United States in 2018.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to estimate the health impact of syphilis in the United States in terms of the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost attributable to infections in 2018. METHODS: We developed a Markov model that simulates the natural history and management of syphilis. The model was parameterized by sex and sexual orientation (women who have sex with men, men who have sex with women [MSW], and men who have sex with men [MSM]), and by age at primary infection. We developed a separate decision tree model to quantify health losses due to congenital syphilis. We estimated the average lifetime number of QALYs lost per infection, and the total expected lifetime number of QALYs lost due to syphilis acquired in 2018. RESULTS: We estimated the average number of discounted lifetime QALYs lost per infection as 0.09 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] .03-.19). The total expected number of QALYs lost due to syphilis acquired in 2018 was 13 349 (5071-31 360). Although per-case loss was the lowest among MSM (0.06), MSM accounted for 47.7% of the overall burden. For each case of congenital syphilis, we estimated 1.79 (1.43-2.16) and 0.06 (.01-.14) QALYs lost in the child and the mother, respectively. We projected 2332 (1871-28 250) and 79 (17-177) QALYs lost for children and mothers, respectively, due to congenital syphilis in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Syphilis causes substantial health losses in adults and children. Quantifying these health losses in terms of QALYs can inform cost-effectiveness analyses and can facilitate comparisons of the burden of syphilis to that of other diseases.

Risk and Benefit of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines for the Omicron Variant by Age, Sex, and Presence of Comorbidity: A Quality-Adjusted Life Years Analysis.

The development of the mutant omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic raised the importance of reevaluating the risk and benefit of COVID-19 vaccines. With a decision tree model, we calculated the benefit-risk ratio and the benefit-risk difference of receiving monovalent messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccine (primary 2 doses, a third dose, and a fourth dose) in the 4-5 months after vaccination using quality-adjusted life years. The analysis was stratified by age, sex, and the presence of comorbidity. Evidence from peer-reviewed publications and gray literature was reviewed on September 16, 2022, to inform the study. Benefit-risk ratios for receipt of the BNT162b2 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) ranged from 6.8 for males aged 12-17 years without comorbidity for the primary doses to 221.3 for females aged ≥65 years with comorbidity for the third dose. The benefit-risk ratios for receipt of the mRNA-1273 vaccine (Moderna) ranged from 7.2 for males aged 18-29 years without comorbidity for the primary doses to 101.4 for females aged ≥65 years with comorbidity for the third dose. In all scenarios of the one-way sensitivity analysis, the benefit-risk ratios were more than 1, irrespective of age, sex, comorbidity status, and type of vaccine, for both primary and booster doses. The benefits of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in protecting against the omicron variant outweigh the risks, irrespective of age, sex, and comorbidity.

Economic evaluation of population-based, expanded reproductive carrier screening for genetic diseases in Australia.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of population-based, expanded reproductive carrier screening (RCS) for a 300 recessive gene panel from health service and societal perspectives. METHODS: A microsimulation model (PreConMod) was developed using 2016 Australian Census data as the base population. Epidemiologic, health, and indirect cost data were based on literature review. The study assessed the incremental cost effectiveness ratio of expanded RCS compared with (1) no population screening and (2) 3-condition screening for cystic fibrosis, spinal muscular atrophy, and fragile X syndrome in a single birth cohort. Averted affected births and health service savings with expanded RCS were projected to year 2061. Both one-way and probability sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty of the parameter inputs. RESULTS: Expanded RCS was cost saving compared with no population screening and cost effective compared with the 3-condition screening (incremental cost effectiveness ratio of Australian dollar [AUD] 6287 per quality-adjusted life year gained) at an uptake rate of 50% for RCS, 59% for in vitro fertilization and preimplantation genetic testing, 90% for prenatal diagnosis testing, and 50% for elective termination of affected pregnancies and a cost of AUD595 per couple screened. Our model predicts that expanded RCS would avert one-third of affected births in a single birth cohort and reduce lifetime health service spending by AUD632.0 million. Expanded RCS was estimated to be cost saving from the societal perspective. CONCLUSION: Expanded RCS is cost effective from health service and societal perspectives. Expanded RCS is projected to avert significantly more affected births and result in health service saving beyond those expected from 3-condition screening or no population screening.

The cost-effectiveness of maternal and neonatal screening for congenital cytomegalovirus infection in Japan.

Congenital cytomegalovirus infection is the most common congenital infection. Using a decision tree model, cost-effectiveness of maternal screening with subsequent prenatal valacyclovir treatment and newborn screening with neonatal valganciclovir treatment was evaluated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for (1) universal maternal antibody screening with prenatal valacyclovir treatment compared to targeted newborn screening, and (2) universal newborn screening with postnatal valganciclovir treatment compared to targeted newborn screening. We performed a one-way sensitivity analysis. Compared to targeted newborn screening, the ICERs for universal newborn screening and maternal screening were 2 966 296 Japanese Yen (JPY) (21 188 USD) and 1 026 984 JPY (7336 USD), respectively. In all scenarios in the one-way sensitivity analysis, the ICERs of the maternal screening and the universal newborn screening strategies were less than three gross domestic product per capita compared with the targeted newborn screening strategy. Both maternal and universal newborn screening strategies may be cost-effective than a targeted newborn screening program. The potential utility of the maternal screening with valacyclovir treatment strategy, while potentially cost effective in regions with lower baseline seroprevalence rates, requires further study as the modeling was based on limited evidence.