Superposition of COVID-19 waves, anticipating a sustained wave, and lessons for the future.

The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19), also known as SARS-CoV-2, is highly pathogenic and virulent, and it spreads very quickly through human-to-human contact. In response to the growing number of cases, governments across the spectrum of affected countries have adopted different strategies in implementing control measures, in a hope to reduce the number of new cases. However, 5 months after the first confirmed case, countries like the United States of America (US) seems to be heading towards a trajectory that indicates a health care crisis. This is in stark contrast to the downward trajectory in Europe, China, and elsewhere in Asia, where the number of new cases has seen a decline ahead of an anticipated second wave. A data-driven approach reveals three key strategies in tackling COVID-19. Our work here has definitively evaluated these strategies and serves as a warning to the US, and more importantly, a guide for tackling future pandemics. Also see the video abstract here https://youtu.be/gPkCi2_7tWo.

Gender difference in sickness absence: Do managers evaluate men and women differently with regard to the appropriateness of sickness absence?

Aims: Women have much higher rates of sickness absence than men, but the causes of the difference are not well understood. This study examines whether managers have more lenient attitudes towards women's than towards men's absence, as this might contribute to higher rates of sickness absence among women. Differences between managers and other employees are also assessed. Methods: Vignettes were used to measure attitudes towards the legitimacy of sickness absence. The vignettes consisted of brief case descriptions of individuals considering asking their physicians for sick leave, with information about the medical condition (mainly taken from the descriptions in ICPC-2), occupation and gender. Respondents judged how appropriate sickness absence was in each case. Quota sampling was used, and the effective sample size was 899 managers and 1396 other employees, with each respondent evaluating either four or six vignettes. Generalised ordinal logistic regression was used. Results: The gender of the vignette person had no effect on the managers' evaluations of the appropriateness of sickness absence. Irrespective of the gender of the vignette person, however, managers were generally more restrictive than non-managers. Conclusions: Different attitudes on the part of managers towards sickness absence in men and women do not seem to contribute to gender differences in sickness absence, but managers are generally more restrictive compared to non-managerial employees.

Ciclos de trabajo-confinamiento para reducir la transmisión de Covid-19: evidencia y recomendaciones en el contexto de México.

Este artículo propone intervenciones estructurales dirigidas a la reorganización del trabajo para evitar un repunte de casos de Covid-19, permitiendo la continuidad de la actividad económica. Se resume la evidencia disponible acerca de los ciclos de trabajo-confinamiento y la posible aplicación de ciclos de cuatro días de trabajo por tres de confinamiento (4x3) en el contexto mexicano. También se discuten otras intervenciones como la continuación del teletrabajo en algunos sectores y el escalonamiento de las jornadas de trabajo como medidas complementarias a los ciclos de trabajo-confinamiento. Esta discusión se da en el contexto de alta informalidad y escasos recursos para absorber una pérdida importante de la productividad por las empresas medianas y pequeñas en México. Se considera la necesidad de implementar apoyos para que personas y empresas puedan mitigar pérdidas en salarios y ganancias tanto del sector formal como informal.

Hierarchical distance and employees' commitment as conditioning of team-based work in the Spanish public sector.

Team-based work (TBW) plays a crucial role in the success and quality of public services. In the context of the Spanish public sector, our study evaluates if a low level of hierarchical distance (HD) in public organizations condition the public employees' commitment (EC) as well as TBW, assessed in terms of participation and consensus among team members. Simultaneously, we evaluated to what extent EC help to enhance TBW. Employing a sample of 213 government organizations from the south of Spain through a model of structural equations, we were able to answer the above questions. Our results revealed that team-based work functions more successfully within public organizations where there exists little verticality in their structures, norms, values and rules - in simplest terms, where there is minimal organizational HD. Such results also suggest that although regulations exist in the Spanish public sector, should public organizations attempt to be less vertical and more horizontal, they would perhaps have public servants that were more committed to their organizations. As a result, servants view the organization as their own and remain loyal. Finally, from an academic perspective, this study could be one of few to research and evaluate the hierarchical role and employees' commitment to the functioning of public employees based on participation and consensus in their work teams.

[Occupational factors associated with suicide among French employees from the special agricultural social security scheme (MSA) working between 2007 and 2013]. / Facteurs professionnels en lien avec le suicide au sein des salariés affiliés à la Mutualité sociale agricole (MSA) et en activité entre 2007 et 2013.

BACKGROUND: Work and related exposures may play a role in suicide and there has been evidence in the literature that some occupational factors may be associated with suicide. The identification of occupational risk factors of suicide mortality among employees affiliated to the French special agricultural social security scheme (MSA), an understudied population, appears important. The objective of this study was to identify the occupational factors associated with suicide mortality among French employees from the MSA working between 2007 and 2013. METHODS: The study population included all the employees affiliated to the MSA working between 1st January 2007 and 31st December 2013, i.e. 1,699,929 men and 1,201,017 women. The studied occupational factors included: economic activity, skill level, and work contract. Survival analyses (Cox models) stratified on gender were performed using age as time scale and region and year of contract as adjustment variables. RESULTS: Among men, the factors associated with an elevated suicide risk were: economic activities of forestry, agriculture and related activities, and manufacture of food products and beverages (e.g. meat, wine), low-skilled level and working in the regions of Brittany, Burgundy Franche-Comté, Pays de la Loire, Normandy, Grand Est and Centre-Val-de-Loire. No association was observed among women. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that economic activity and low-skilled level may be associated with suicide among men affiliated to the MSA and may contribute to the implementation of prevention interventions. Further studies are needed to confirm and better understand these associations.

How different governance models may impact physician-hospital alignment.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals utilize three ideal type models for governing relationships with their physicians: the traditional medical staff, strategic alliances, and employment. Little is known about how these models impact physician alignment. PURPOSE: The study compares the level of physician-hospital alignment across the three models. APPROACH: We used survey data from 1,895 physicians in all three models across 34 hospitals in eight systems to measure several dimensions of alignment. We used logistic equations to predict survey nonresponse and differential physician selection into the alliance and employment models. Controlling for these selection effects, we then used multiple regression to estimate the effects of alliance and employment models on alignment. RESULTS: Physicians in employment models express greater alignment with their hospital on several dimensions, compared to physicians in alliances and the traditional medical staff. There were no differences in physician alignment between the latter two models. CONCLUSIONS: Employment models promote greater alignment on some (but not all) dimensions, controlling for physician selection. The impact of employment on alignment is not large, however. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Hospitals and accountable care organizations that rely on employment may achieve higher physician alignment compared to the other two models. It is not clear that the gain in alignment is worth the cost of employment. Given the small impact of employment on alignment, it is also clear that they are not identical. Hospitals may need to go beyond structural models of integration to achieve alignment with their physicians.

Intergenerational Relationships, Family Caregiving Policy, and COVID-19 in the United States.

Families and intergenerational relationships are important sources of risk for COVID-19 infection, especially for older adults who are at high risk of complications from the disease. If one family member is exposed to the virus they could serve as a source of transmission or, if they fall ill, the resources they provide to others could be severed. These risks may be especially heightened for family members who work outside the home and provide care, or for those family members who care for multiple generations. Policies have the potential to help families bear the burden of these decisions. This essay argues that policies that address health, employment, and other social issues have implications for families, and that policies aimed at families and caregivers can affect the health, employment, and the general well-being of the nation.

Older Workers in the Time of COVID-19: The Senior Community Service Employment Program and Implications for Social Work.

It has long been the goal of many gerontological social work scholars to increase the ability and opportunity for people to be engaged in paid and unpaid work throughout the life course. Yet the COVID-19 pandemic is revealing and exacerbating the financial insecurity of many older adults. In this paper, we review information related to older workers and how they might be affected by this pandemic and its aftermath, paying particular attention to the most socioeconomically and physically vulnerable older workers. We also offer first-hand experiences from our careers working with and conducting scholarship on older workers, paying particular attention to recent actions by many in the Senior Community Service Employment Program (SCSEP) network to provide paid sick leave to its low-income, older adult participants. We conclude with implications for social work scholarship and teaching, noting the uptick in technology use among older adults and the disparities that remain, as well as teaching that integrates discussions on the lifelong and cumulative effects of inequalities and marginalization and the need for additional researcher, student, and community collaborations.

Can the unemployed be trained to care for the elderly? The effects of subsidized training in elderly care.

Demographic change has increased the need for elderly care. Training unemployed workers might be one way to increase the supply of elderly care nurses. This study analyzes the effectiveness of subsidized training for unemployed individuals in the elderly care professions in Germany over 11.5 years. We find that short further training and long retraining courses significantly increase workers' long-term employment. As approximately 25% to 50% of trained nurses have permanent jobs in the care sector, we estimate that approximately 5% of all employed nurses are formerly trained unemployed workers.

Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States.

In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006-2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition-specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses-have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time-in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles-further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.

Informal employees in the European Union: working conditions, employment precariousness and health.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of informal workers and their working conditions and employment precariousness in the EU-27; and to explore the association of different contract arrangements with health outcomes and how they are influenced by working and employment conditions. METHODS: A sample of 27 245 working-age employees from the fifth European Working Condition Survey of 2010 was analysed. Logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the contribution of different contract arrangement (permanent, temporary and informal) and working and employment precariousness variables on health outcomes (psychosocial well-being and self-rated health). RESULTS: Prevalence of informal employees in the EU-27 is 4.1% among men and 5.1% among women. Although informal employees have the poorest working conditions and employment precariousness, they did not seem to reflect poorer health. Precariousness employment variables have a greater impact than working conditions variables in reducing the association between health outcomes and type of contract arrangement, especially in the case of informal employees. CONCLUSIONS: Informal employment in the EU-27 is characterized by worse working conditions and employment precariousness than the conditions for formal employees. There is no evidence at all that being in informal employment implies better health outcomes compared to permanent employees.

Changes in work characteristics over 12 years: Findings from the 2002-2014 US National NIOSH Quality of Work Life Surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To assess changes in work characteristics, socioeconomic status inequalities in changes in work characteristics, and whether US workplaces are becoming more stressful. METHODS: We analyzed data from 5361 employed participants from the 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014 NIOSH Quality of Work Life Surveys, based on representative samples of US workers. We used regression analyses to assess changes in job characteristics, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, work hours, and unemployment rate. For the regression analyses with continuous job characteristics, we created standardized variables allowing for the magnitude of changes to be directly compared between job characteristics. RESULTS: Over the period 2002-2014, we observed statistically significant increases in job strain (+0.09 standard deviations (SD), P = 0.02), low job control (+0.10 SD, P = 0.03), and work-family conflict (+0.15 SD, P = 0.001). No significant changes were observed for high job demand, low social support, and low reward. The largest increase in low job control was seen among service workers. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in two cardiovascular disease risk factors, job strain, and low job control, might partially explain the slowing of the decline in US heart disease and stroke mortality rates.

The Ties That Bind and Unbound Ties: Experiences of Formerly Homeless Individuals in Recovery From Serious Mental Illness and Substance Use.

This report explores the nature and quality of social ties of formerly homeless individuals in recovery from serious mental illness and substance abuse and how these ties relate to experiences of community. Using grounded theory and cross-case analysis techniques, we analyzed 34 qualitative interviews conducted with predominantly racial/ethnic minority individuals receiving mental health services. Participants described a range of involvement and experiences in the mental health service and mainstream communities indicating a combination of weak or strong ties in these communities. Across participants, two broad themes emerged: ties that bind and obstacles that "get in the way" of forming social ties. Salient subthemes included those related to family, cultural spaces, employment, substance abuse, stigma and mental health service providers and peers. The current study integrates our understanding of positive and negative aspects of social ties and provides a theoretical framework highlighting the complexity of social ties within mainstream and mental health service communities.

[Psychosocial burden and strains in geriatric nursing: comparison of nursing personnel with and without migration background]. / Psychosoziale Belastungen und Beanspruchungen in der Altenpflege: Vergleich zwischen Pflegekräften mit und ohne Migrationshintergrund.

BACKGROUND: Because of demographic changes the nursing care sector is faced with a lack of qualified employees in the medium and long term. The shortage in the work force is caused by high workloads and unfavorable working conditions. In response to this shortage, there have been attempts to recruit qualified nursing staff from abroad and also to improve the integration of people with a migration background living in Germany into the job market. METHODOLOGY: Based on a quantitative cross-sectional study of 366 nurses, the psychosocial burden and strains among employees with a migration background (n = 112) and without a migration background (n = 254) were examined. For this purpose, 13 scales of the German version of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ) were used for the assessment of psychosocial factors at work. The results were compared with professional group-specific reference values (geriatric care) from the COPSOQ database. RESULTS: The comparison of nursing staff with and without a migration background revealed that the emotional demands, work-privacy conflict and role conflicts factors received a significantly better rating among nursing staff with a migration background, while development opportunities were rated worse by this population group. The surveyed nursing staff exhibited higher stress values compared to the COPSOQ reference group in almost all scales. CONCLUSION: Nursing staff with a migration background need to be supported with respect to development opportunities. Suitable education and training measures may offer adequate career perspectives and may encourage employees to stay in their jobs.

Organisational factors and occupational balance in working parents in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Parents with small children constitute a vulnerable group as they have an increased risk of sick leave due to stress-related disorders compared to adults without children. It has been shown that mothers and fathers to small children together spend more time in paid work than any other group, which could create negative stress and an experience of low occupational balance. AIM: The aim of this study was to examine associations between organisational factors and occupational balance among parents with small children in Sweden. METHODS: Data were collected by a survey including questions about occupational balance, organisational factors and age, sex, employment rate, work position, monthly household income, number of children at home, separation/divorce last five years and overtime. The total number of parents included in this study was 718 (490 mothers and 228 fathers). Logistic regression models were applied to examine the odds ratios for occupational balance in relation to organisational factors. RESULTS: Parents who experienced positive attitudes towards parenthood and parental leave among colleagues and managers were more likely to experience high occupational balance than parents who experienced negative or neutral attitudes. Having a clear structure for handover when absent from work was also strongly associated with high occupational balance. CONCLUSIONS: The result of the present study indicates that some organisational factors could be important for the occupational balance of parents with small children.

Involving the employer to enhance return to work among patients with stress-related mental disorders - study protocol of a cluster randomized controlled trial in Swedish primary health care.

BACKGROUND: Work-related stress has become a major challenge for social security and health care systems, employers and employees across Europe. In Sweden, sickness absence particularly due to stress-related disorders has increased excessively in recent years, and the issue of how to improve sustainable return to work in affected employees is high up on the political agenda. The literature on interventions for return to work in patients with common mental disorders is still inconclusive. This randomized controlled trial (RCT) aims to contribute with knowledge about how physicians and rehabilitation coordinators in primary health care can involve the employer in the rehabilitation of patients with stress-related disorders. The objective is to evaluate whether the early involvement of the patient's employer can reduce the time for return to work compared to treatment as usual. A process study will complete the RCT with information about what prerequisites primary health caregivers need to succeed with this endeavor. METHODS: Twenty-two primary care centers were randomized to either intervention or control group. At the intervention centers, physicians and rehabilitation coordinators underwent training, providing them with both knowledge and practical tools to involve the employer in rehabilitation. At the patient level, employed patients with an ICD-10 F43 diagnosis were eligible for participation (n=132). Difference in proportion of patients on full- or part-time sick leave at three, six and 12 months after inclusion will be investigated. Register data, logbooks and interviews with coordinators and physicians at both intervention and control centers will be used for process evaluation. DISCUSSION: Although the issue of how to tackle work-related stress can be recognized all across Europe, Sweden face an urgent need to curb the disproportional increase of stress-related disorders in the sick-leave statistics. Since physicians are limited by time constraints, the rehabilitation coordinator may be a helpful resource to take this contact. The current study will contribute to knowledge about how this collaboration can be organized to facilitate employer involvement and reduce time to return to work among patients suffering from work related stress. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered on 1 November 2016, ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03022760 .

Predictors of Turnover Among Asian Foreign-Educated Nurses in Their 1st Year of US Employment.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate factors affecting turnover of Asian foreign-educated nurses (FENs), which may lead to improvements in retention strategies. BACKGROUND: Asian FENs working in the United States have considerable rates of turnover. Little is known about which factors are related. METHODS: A cross-sectional design was used. A convenience sample (n = 201) of Asian FENs completed surveys by regular mail and through a website. Backward multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with turnover in their 1st year of employment. RESULTS: Most participants were from the Philippines and Korea. Perceived quality of orientation predicted organizational-level turnover and trended toward predicting unit-level turnover. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare institutions may benefit from developing organizational programs for FENs that are sensitive to their unique needs, in the interest of reducing rapid or early turnover and accompanying negative effects on hospital finances and patient care.

Employers' Perspectives on Accommodating and Retaining Employees with Newly Acquired Disabilities: An Exploratory Study.

Introduction Timely and appropriate accommodations can help employees who experience disabilities stay at work instead of exiting the labor force. Employers can play a critical role in connecting such workers with the accommodations they need. This qualitative study seeks to inform policy makers who want to improve workforce retention outcomes by uncovering factors that affect whether employers provide accommodations to, and ultimately retain, employees with disabilities. Methods We conducted semistructured interviews with a convenience sample of human resources professionals in 14 Arkansas-based employers, yielding detailed information on 50 cases in which an employee developed or disclosed a disability. We analyzed the interviews using a grounded theory approach and compared cases to identify key themes emerging across subgroups of cases. Results Two organization-level factors and four employee-level factors influenced employers' efforts to accommodate and retain employees with disabilities: employer resources; employers' communication with the employee and other stakeholders; employee tenure; employee work performance; active/sedentary nature of employee role; and the severity and type of employees' health conditions. Conclusions Consistent with prior literature, employers with greater access to resources and better ability to communicate generally made greater effort to accommodate and retain employees with disabilities. However, employers in the study did not deploy these resources and processes consistently when making decisions about whether and how to provide accommodations to workers with disabilities; employee-level characteristics affected their actions. Policy makers should consider intervention approaches that reach workers who may be overlooked by employers with scarce resources.

The association of health and voluntary early retirement pension and the modifying effect of quality of supervision: Results from a Danish register-based follow-up study.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this article are to (1) determine whether and to what extent general perceived health and quality of supervision predict voluntary early retirement pension (VERP) and (2) assess whether quality of supervision modifies the association between general perceived health and VERP. METHODS: Employees aged 49-64 years who participated in the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study in 2000 were selected. Their questionnaire data about health and work were linked to register data on social transfer payments, among others VERP, from 2001 to 2012 in the Danish Register for Evaluation of Marginalization ( N=1167). Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to identify the prospective association of general perceived health and quality of supervision on VERP. Relative excess risks due to interaction (RERIs) were calculated to assess whether quality of supervision modified the association between health and VERP. RESULTS: Employees with poor health at baseline had an increased risk of VERP during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR]=1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.49). Quality of supervision at baseline was not associated to VERP during follow-up (HR=1.04; 95% CI 0.90-1.21). There was no statistically significant interaction of poor health and poor quality of supervision with regard to risk of VERP (RERI=-0.33; 95% CI -1.79 to 1.14). CONCLUSIONS: This study did not support the notion that quality of supervision buffers the association between poor health and VERP. Future research is needed to determine whether other aspects of supervision, for example supervisors' opportunities to effectuate workplace adjustments, may modify the association of poor health and VERP.

Who initiates and organises situations for work-related alcohol use? The WIRUS culture study.

AIMS: Alcohol is one of the leading causes of ill health and premature death in the world. Several studies indicate that working life might influence employees' alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. The aim of this study was to explore work-related drinking situations, with a special focus on answering who initiates and organises these situations. METHODS: Data were collected through semi-structured group interviews in six Norwegian companies from the private ( n=4) and public sectors ( n=2), employing a total of 3850 employees. The informants ( n=43) were representatives from management and local unions, safety officers, advisers from the social insurance office and human-resource personnel, health, safety and environment personnel, and members from the occupational environment committee. Both qualitative and quantitative content analyses were applied in the analyses of the material. RESULTS: Three different initiators and organisers were discovered: the employer, employees and external organisers. External organisers included customers, suppliers, collaborators, sponsors, subcontractors, different unions and employers' organisations. The employer organised more than half of the situations; external organisers were responsible for more than a quarter. The differences between companies were mostly due to the extent of external organisers. CONCLUSIONS: The employer initiates and organises most situations for work-related alcohol use. However, exposure to such situations seems to depend on how many external relations the company has. These aspects should be taken into account when workplace health-promotion initiatives are planned.