Modern temperatures in central-north Greenland warmest in past millennium.

The Greenland Ice Sheet has a central role in the global climate system owing to its size, radiative effects and freshwater storage, and as a potential tipping point1. Weather stations show that the coastal regions are warming2, but the imprint of global warming in the central part of the ice sheet is unclear, owing to missing long-term observations. Current ice-core-based temperature reconstructions3-5 are ambiguous with respect to isolating global warming signatures from natural variability, because they are too noisy and do not include the most recent decades. By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from AD 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P < 0.001) and is on average 1.5 ± 0.4 degrees Celsius (1 standard error) warmer than the twentieth century. Our findings suggest that these exceptional temperatures arise from the superposition of natural variability with a long-term warming trend, apparent since AD 1800. The disproportionate warming is accompanied by enhanced Greenland meltwater run-off, implying that anthropogenic influence has also arrived in central and north Greenland, which might further accelerate the overall Greenland mass loss.

Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet.

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) in response to anthropogenic global warming poses a severe threat in terms of global sea-level rise (SLR)1. Modelling and palaeoclimate evidence suggest that rapidly increasing temperatures in the Arctic can trigger positive feedback mechanisms for the GrIS, leading to self-sustained melting2-4, and the GrIS has been shown to permit several stable states5. Critical transitions are expected when the global mean temperature (GMT) crosses specific thresholds, with substantial hysteresis between the stable states6. Here we use two independent ice-sheet models to investigate the impact of different overshoot scenarios with varying peak and convergence temperatures for a broad range of warming and subsequent cooling rates. Our results show that the maximum GMT and the time span of overshooting given GMT targets are critical in determining GrIS stability. We find a threshold GMT between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C above preindustrial levels for an abrupt ice-sheet loss. GrIS loss can be substantially mitigated, even for maximum GMTs of 6 °C or more above preindustrial levels, if the GMT is subsequently reduced to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels within a few centuries. However, our results also show that even temporarily overshooting the temperature threshold, without a transition to a new ice-sheet state, still leads to a peak in SLR of up to several metres.

A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA.

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago1 had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming2. Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11-19 °C above contemporary values3,4. The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare5. Here we report an ancient environmental DNA6 (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA.

Late Quaternary dynamics of Arctic biota from ancient environmental genomics.

During the last glacial-interglacial cycle, Arctic biotas experienced substantial climatic changes, yet the nature, extent and rate of their responses are not fully understood1-8. Here we report a large-scale environmental DNA metagenomic study of ancient plant and mammal communities, analysing 535 permafrost and lake sediment samples from across the Arctic spanning the past 50,000 years. Furthermore, we present 1,541 contemporary plant genome assemblies that were generated as reference sequences. Our study provides several insights into the long-term dynamics of the Arctic biota at the circumpolar and regional scales. Our key findings include: (1) a relatively homogeneous steppe-tundra flora dominated the Arctic during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by regional divergence of vegetation during the Holocene epoch; (2) certain grazing animals consistently co-occurred in space and time; (3) humans appear to have been a minor factor in driving animal distributions; (4) higher effective precipitation, as well as an increase in the proportion of wetland plants, show negative effects on animal diversity; (5) the persistence of the steppe-tundra vegetation in northern Siberia enabled the late survival of several now-extinct megafauna species, including the woolly mammoth until 3.9 ± 0.2 thousand years ago (ka) and the woolly rhinoceros until 9.8 ± 0.2 ka; and (6) phylogenetic analysis of mammoth environmental DNA reveals a previously unsampled mitochondrial lineage. Our findings highlight the power of ancient environmental metagenomics analyses to advance understanding of population histories and long-term ecological dynamics.

Seabirds reveal mercury distribution across the North Atlantic.

Mercury (Hg) is a heterogeneously distributed toxicant affecting wildlife and human health. Yet, the spatial distribution of Hg remains poorly documented, especially in food webs, even though this knowledge is essential to assess large-scale risk of toxicity for the biota and human populations. Here, we used seabirds to assess, at an unprecedented population and geographic magnitude and high resolution, the spatial distribution of Hg in North Atlantic marine food webs. To this end, we combined tracking data of 837 seabirds from seven different species and 27 breeding colonies located across the North Atlantic and Atlantic Arctic together with Hg analyses in feathers representing individual seabird contamination based on their winter distribution. Our results highlight an east-west gradient in Hg concentrations with hot spots around southern Greenland and the east coast of Canada and a cold spot in the Barents and Kara Seas. We hypothesize that those gradients are influenced by eastern (Norwegian Atlantic Current and West Spitsbergen Current) and western (East Greenland Current) oceanic currents and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. By tracking spatial Hg contamination in marine ecosystems and through the identification of areas at risk of Hg toxicity, this study provides essential knowledge for international decisions about where the regulation of pollutants should be prioritized.

Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland's ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times.

The persistence and size of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) through the Pleistocene is uncertain. This is important because reconstructing changes in the GrIS determines its contribution to sea level rise during prior warm climate periods and informs future projections. To understand better the history of Greenland's ice, we analyzed glacial till collected in 1993 from below 3 km of ice at Summit, Greenland. The till contains plant fragments, wood, insect parts, fungi, and cosmogenic nuclides showing that the bed of the GrIS at Summit is a long-lived, stable land surface preserving a record of deposition, exposure, and interglacial ecosystems. Knowing that central Greenland was tundra-covered during the Pleistocene informs the understanding of Arctic biosphere response to deglaciation.

Ruthenium isotope vestige of Earth's pre-late-veneer mantle preserved in Archaean rocks.

The accretion of volatile-rich material from the outer Solar System represents a crucial prerequisite for Earth to develop oceans and become a habitable planet1-4. However, the timing of this accretion remains controversial5-8. It has been proposed that volatile elements were added to Earth by the late accretion of a late veneer consisting of carbonaceous-chondrite-like material after core formation had ceased6,9,10. This view could not be reconciled with the ruthenium (Ru) isotope composition of carbonaceous chondrites5,11, which is distinct from that of the modern mantle12, or of any known meteorite group5. As a possible solution, Earth's pre-late-veneer mantle could already have contained a fraction of Ru that was not fully extracted by core formation13. The presence of such pre-late-veneer Ru can only be established if its isotope composition is distinct from that of the modern mantle. Here we report the first high-precision, mass-independent Ru isotope compositions for Eoarchaean ultramafic rocks from southwest Greenland, which display a relative 100Ru excess of 22 parts per million compared with the modern mantle value. This 100Ru excess indicates that the source of the Eoarchaean rocks already contained a substantial fraction of Ru before the accretion of the late veneer. By 3.7 billion years ago, the mantle beneath southwest Greenland had not yet fully equilibrated with late accreted material. Otherwise, no Ru isotopic difference relative to the modern mantle would be observed. If constraints from other highly siderophile elements besides Ru are also considered14, the composition of the modern mantle can only be reconciled if the late veneer contained substantial amounts of carbonaceous-chondrite-like materials with their characteristic 100Ru deficits. These data therefore relax previous constraints on the late veneer and are consistent with volatile-rich material from the outer Solar System being delivered to Earth during late accretion.

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018.

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades1,2, and it is expected to continue to be so3. Although increases in glacier flow4-6 and surface melting7-9 have been driven by oceanic10-12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet's mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet's volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 ± 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 ± 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 ± 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 ± 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 ± 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.

Population genomics of the Viking world.

The maritime expansion of Scandinavian populations during the Viking Age (about AD 750-1050) was a far-flung transformation in world history1,2. Here we sequenced the genomes of 442 humans from archaeological sites across Europe and Greenland (to a median depth of about 1×) to understand the global influence of this expansion. We find the Viking period involved gene flow into Scandinavia from the south and east. We observe genetic structure within Scandinavia, with diversity hotspots in the south and restricted gene flow within Scandinavia. We find evidence for a major influx of Danish ancestry into England; a Swedish influx into the Baltic; and Norwegian influx into Ireland, Iceland and Greenland. Additionally, we see substantial ancestry from elsewhere in Europe entering Scandinavia during the Viking Age. Our ancient DNA analysis also revealed that a Viking expedition included close family members. By comparing with modern populations, we find that pigmentation-associated loci have undergone strong population differentiation during the past millennium, and trace positively selected loci-including the lactase-persistence allele of LCT and alleles of ANKA that are associated with the immune response-in detail. We conclude that the Viking diaspora was characterized by substantial transregional engagement: distinct populations influenced the genomic makeup of different regions of Europe, and Scandinavia experienced increased contact with the rest of the continent.

The causes of sea-level rise since 1900.

The rate of global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 has varied over time, but the contributing factors are still poorly understood1. Previous assessments found that the summed contributions of ice-mass loss, terrestrial water storage and thermal expansion of the ocean could not be reconciled with observed changes in global-mean sea level, implying that changes in sea level or some contributions to those changes were poorly constrained2,3. Recent improvements to observational data, our understanding of the main contributing processes to sea-level change and methods for estimating the individual contributions, mean another attempt at reconciliation is warranted. Here we present a probabilistic framework to reconstruct sea level since 1900 using independent observations and their inherent uncertainties. The sum of the contributions to sea-level change from thermal expansion of the ocean, ice-mass loss and changes in terrestrial water storage is consistent with the trends and multidecadal variability in observed sea level on both global and basin scales, which we reconstruct from tide-gauge records. Ice-mass loss-predominantly from glaciers-has caused twice as much sea-level rise since 1900 as has thermal expansion. Mass loss from glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet explains the high rates of global sea-level rise during the 1940s, while a sharp increase in water impoundment by artificial reservoirs is the main cause of the lower-than-average rates during the 1970s. The acceleration in sea-level rise since the 1970s is caused by the combination of thermal expansion of the ocean and increased ice-mass loss from Greenland. Our results reconcile the magnitude of observed global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 with estimates based on the underlying processes, implying that no additional processes are required to explain the observed changes in sea level since 1900.

Oceanic forcing of penultimate deglacial and last interglacial sea-level rise.

Sea-level histories during the two most recent deglacial-interglacial intervals show substantial differences1-3 despite both periods undergoing similar changes in global mean temperature4,5 and forcing from greenhouse gases6. Although the last interglaciation (LIG) experienced stronger boreal summer insolation forcing than the present interglaciation7, understanding why LIG global mean sea level may have been six to nine metres higher than today has proven particularly challenging2. Extensive areas of polar ice sheets were grounded below sea level during both glacial and interglacial periods, with grounding lines and fringing ice shelves extending onto continental shelves8. This suggests that oceanic forcing by subsurface warming may also have contributed to ice-sheet loss9-12 analogous to ongoing changes in the Antarctic13,14 and Greenland15 ice sheets. Such forcing would have been especially effective during glacial periods, when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) experienced large variations on millennial timescales16, with a reduction of the AMOC causing subsurface warming throughout much of the Atlantic basin9,12,17. Here we show that greater subsurface warming induced by the longer period of reduced AMOC during the penultimate deglaciation can explain the more-rapid sea-level rise compared with the last deglaciation. This greater forcing also contributed to excess loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the LIG, causing global mean sea level to rise at least four metres above modern levels. When accounting for the combined influences of penultimate and LIG deglaciation on glacial isostatic adjustment, this excess loss of polar ice during the LIG can explain much of the relative sea level recorded by fossil coral reefs and speleothems at intermediate- and far-field sites.

Rapid expansion of Greenland's low-permeability ice slabs.

In recent decades, meltwater runoff has accelerated to become the dominant mechanism for mass loss in the Greenland ice sheet1-3. In Greenland's high-elevation interior, porous snow and firn accumulate; these can absorb surface meltwater and inhibit runoff4, but this buffering effect is limited if enough water refreezes near the surface to restrict percolation5,6. However, the influence of refreezing on runoff from Greenland remains largely unquantified. Here we use firn cores, radar observations and regional climate models to show that recent increases in meltwater have resulted in the formation of metres-thick, low-permeability 'ice slabs' that have expanded the Greenland ice sheet's total runoff area by 26 ± 3 per cent since 2001. Although runoff from the top of ice slabs has added less than one millimetre to global sea-level rise so far, this contribution will grow substantially as ice slabs expand inland in a warming climate. Runoff over ice slabs is set to contribute 7 to 33 millimetres and 17 to 74 millimetres to global sea-level rise by 2100 under moderate- and high-emissions scenarios, respectively-approximately double the estimated runoff from Greenland's high-elevation interior, as predicted by surface mass balance models without ice slabs. Ice slabs will have an important role in enhancing surface meltwater feedback processes, fundamentally altering the ice sheet's present and future hydrology.

Industrial-era decline in subarctic Atlantic productivity.

Marine phytoplankton have a crucial role in the modulation of marine-based food webs1, fishery yields2 and the global drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide3. However, owing to sparse measurements before satellite monitoring in the twenty-first century, the long-term response of planktonic stocks to climate forcing is unknown. Here, using a continuous, multi-century record of subarctic Atlantic marine productivity, we show that a marked 10 ± 7% decline in net primary productivity has occurred across this highly productive ocean basin over the past two centuries. We support this conclusion by the application of a marine-productivity proxy, established using the signal of the planktonic-derived aerosol methanesulfonic acid, which is commonly identified across an array of Greenlandic ice cores. Using contemporaneous satellite-era observations, we demonstrate the use of this signal as a robust and high-resolution proxy for past variations in spatially integrated marine productivity. We show that the initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity broadly coincides with the onset of Arctic surface warming4, and that productivity strongly covaries with regional sea-surface temperatures and basin-wide gyre circulation strength over recent decades. Taken together, our results suggest that the decline in industrial-era productivity may be evidence of the predicted5 collapse of northern Atlantic planktonic stocks in response to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation6-8. Continued weakening of this Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, as projected for the twenty-first century9,10, may therefore result in further productivity declines across this globally relevant region.

Planetary chaos and inverted climate phasing in the Late Triassic of Greenland.

Sedimentological records provide the only accessible archive for unraveling Earth's orbital variations in the remote geological past. These variations modulate Earth's climate system and provide essential constraints on gravitational parameters used in solar system modeling. However, geologic documentation of midlatitude response to orbital climate forcing remains poorly resolved compared to that of the low-latitude tropics, especially before 50 Mya, the limit of reliable extrapolation from the present. Here, we compare the climate response to orbital variations in a Late Triassic midlatitude temperate setting in Jameson Land, East Greenland (∼43°N paleolatitude) and the tropical low paleolatitude setting of the Newark Basin, with independent time horizons provided by common magnetostratigraphic boundaries whose timing has been corroborated by uranium-lead (U-Pb) zircon dating in correlative strata on the Colorado Plateau. An integrated cyclostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic age model revealed long-term climate cycles with periods of 850,000 and 1,700,000 y ascribed to the Mars­Earth grand orbital cycles. This indicates a 2:1 resonance between modulation of orbital obliquity and eccentricity variations more than 200 Mya and whose periodicities are inconsistent with astronomical solutions and indicate chaotic diffusion of the solar system. Our findings also demonstrate antiphasing in climate response between low and midlatitudes that has implications for precise global correlation of geological records.

Warming-induced tipping points of Arctic and alpine shrub recruitment.

Shrub recruitment, a key component of vegetation dynamics beyond forests, is a highly sensitive indicator of climate and environmental change. Warming-induced tipping points in Arctic and alpine treeless ecosystems are, however, little understood. Here, we compare two long-term recruitment datasets of 2,770 shrubs from coastal East Greenland and from the Tibetan Plateau against atmospheric circulation patterns between 1871 and 2010 Common Era. Increasing rates of shrub recruitment since 1871 reached critical tipping points in the 1930s and 1960s on the Tibetan Plateau and in East Greenland, respectively. A recent decline in shrub recruitment in both datasets was likely related to warmer and drier climates, with a stronger May to July El Niño Southern Oscillation over the Tibetan Plateau and a stronger June to July Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over Greenland. Exceeding the thermal optimum of shrub recruitment, the recent warming trend may cause soil moisture deficit. Our findings suggest that changes in atmospheric circulation explain regional climate dynamics and associated response patterns in Arctic and alpine shrub communities, knowledge that should be considered to protect vulnerable high-elevation and high-latitude ecosystems from the cascading effects of anthropogenic warming.

Glacial meltwater determines the balance between autotrophic and heterotrophic processes in a Greenland fjord.

Global warming accelerates melting of glaciers and increases the supply of meltwater and associated inorganic particles, nutrients, and organic matter to adjacent coastal seas, but the ecosystem impact is poorly resolved and quantified. When meltwater is delivered by glacial rivers, the potential impact could be a reduction in light and nutrient availability for primary producers while supplying allochthonous carbon for heterotrophic processes, thereby tipping the net community metabolism toward heterotrophy. To test this hypothesis, we determined physical and biogeochemical parameters along a 110-km fjord transect in NE Greenland fjord, impacted by glacial meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet. The meltwater is delivered from glacier-fed river outlets in the inner parts of the fjord, creating a gradient in salinity and turbidity. The planktonic primary production was low, 20-45 mg C m-2 d-1, in the more turbid inner half of the fjord, increasing 10-fold to around 350 mg C m-2 d-1 in the shelf waters outside the fjord. Plankton community metabolism was measured at three stations, which displayed a transition from net heterotrophy in the inner fjord to net autotrophy in the coastal shelf waters. Respiration was significantly correlated to turbidity, with a 10-fold increase in the inner turbid part of the fjord. We estimated the changes in meltwater input and sea ice coverage in the area for the last 60 y. The long-term trend and the observed effects demonstrated the importance of freshwater runoff as a key driver of coastal ecosystem change in the Arctic with potential negative consequences for coastal productivity.

The exometabolome of microbial communities inhabiting bare ice surfaces on the southern Greenland Ice Sheet.

Microbial blooms colonize the Greenland Ice Sheet bare ice surface during the ablation season and significantly reduce its albedo. On the ice surface, microbes are exposed to high levels of irradiance, freeze-thaw cycles, and low nutrient concentrations. It is well known that microorganisms secrete metabolites to maintain homeostasis, communicate with other microorganisms, and defend themselves. Yet, the exometabolome of supraglacial microbial blooms, dominated by the pigmented glacier ice algae Ancylonema alaskanum and Ancylonema nordenskiöldii, remains thus far unstudied. Here, we use a high-resolution mass spectrometry-based untargeted metabolomics workflow to identify metabolites in the exometabolome of microbial blooms on the surface of the southern tip of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Samples were collected every 6 h across two diurnal cycles at 5 replicate sampling sites with high similarity in community composition, in terms of orders and phyla present. Time of sampling explained 46% (permutational multivariate analysis of variance [PERMANOVA], pseudo-F = 3.7771, p = 0.001) and 27% (PERMANOVA, pseudo-F = 1.8705, p = 0.001) of variance in the exometabolome across the two diurnal cycles. Annotated metabolites included riboflavin, lumichrome, tryptophan, and azelaic acid, all of which have demonstrated roles in microbe-microbe interactions in other ecosystems and should be tested for potential roles in the development of microbial blooms on bare ice surfaces.

A map of canine sequence variation relative to a Greenland wolf outgroup.

For over 15 years, canine genetics research relied on a reference assembly from a Boxer breed dog named Tasha (i.e., canFam3.1). Recent advances in long-read sequencing and genome assembly have led to the development of numerous high-quality assemblies from diverse canines. These assemblies represent notable improvements in completeness, contiguity, and the representation of gene promoters and gene models. Although genome graph and pan-genome approaches have promise, most genetic analyses in canines rely upon the mapping of Illumina sequencing reads to a single reference. The Dog10K consortium, and others, have generated deep catalogs of genetic variation through an alignment of Illumina sequencing reads to a reference genome obtained from a German Shepherd Dog named Mischka (i.e., canFam4, UU_Cfam_GSD_1.0). However, alignment to a breed-derived genome may introduce bias in genotype calling across samples. Since the use of an outgroup reference genome may remove this effect, we have reprocessed 1929 samples analyzed by the Dog10K consortium using a Greenland wolf (mCanLor1.2) as the reference. We efficiently performed remapping and variant calling using a GPU-implementation of common analysis tools. The resulting call set removes the variability in genetic differences seen across samples and breed relationships revealed by principal component analysis are not affected by the choice of reference genome. Using this sequence data, we inferred the history of population sizes and found that village dog populations experienced a 9-13 fold reduction in historic effective population size relative to wolves.

Food chain without giants: modelling the trophic impact of bowhead whaling on little auk populations in the Atlantic Arctic.

In the Atlantic Arctic, bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) were nearly exterminated by European whalers between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. The collapse of the East Greenland-Svalbard-Barents Sea population, from an estimated 50 000 to a few hundred individuals, drastically reduced predation on mesozooplankton. Here, we tested the hypothesis that this event strongly favoured the demography of the little auk (Alle alle), a zooplanktivorous feeder competitor of bowhead whales and the most abundant seabird in the Arctic. To estimate the effect of bowhead whaling on little auk abundance, we modelled the trophic niche overlap between the two species using deterministic simulations of mesozooplankton spatial distribution. We estimated that bowhead whaling could have led to a 70% increase in northeast Atlantic Arctic little auk populations, from 2.8 to 4.8 million breeding pairs. While corresponding to a major population increase, this is far less than predicted by previous studies. Our study illustrates how a trophic shift can result from the near extirpation of a marine megafauna species, and the methodological framework we developed opens up new opportunities for marine trophic modelling.