Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas.

The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.

Long-term decline of global atmospheric ethane concentrations and implications for methane.

After methane, ethane is the most abundant hydrocarbon in the remote atmosphere. It is a precursor to tropospheric ozone and it influences the atmosphere's oxidative capacity through its reaction with the hydroxyl radical, ethane's primary atmospheric sink. Here we present the longest continuous record of global atmospheric ethane levels. We show that global ethane emission rates decreased from 14.3 to 11.3 teragrams per year, or by 21 per cent, from 1984 to 2010. We attribute this to decreasing fugitive emissions from ethane's fossil fuel source--most probably decreased venting and flaring of natural gas in oil fields--rather than a decline in its other major sources, biofuel use and biomass burning. Ethane's major emission sources are shared with methane, and recent studies have disagreed on whether reduced fossil fuel or microbial emissions have caused methane's atmospheric growth rate to slow. Our findings suggest that reduced fugitive fossil fuel emissions account for at least 10-21 teragrams per year (30-70 per cent) of the decrease in methane's global emissions, significantly contributing to methane's slowing atmospheric growth rate since the mid-1980s.

Clean fuels for resource-poor settings: A systematic review of barriers and enablers to adoption and sustained use.

BACKGROUND: Access to, and sustained adoption of, clean household fuels at scale remains an aspirational goal to achieve sufficient reductions in household air pollution (HAP) in order to impact on the substantial global health burden caused by reliance on solid fuels. AIM AND OBJECTIVES: To systematically appraise the current evidence base to identify: (i) which factors enable or limit adoption and sustained use of clean fuels (namely liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), biogas, solar cooking and alcohol fuels) in low- and middle-income countries; (ii) lessons learnt concerning equitable scaling-up of programmes of cleaner cooking fuels in relation to poverty, urban-rural settings and gender. METHODS: A mixed-methods systematic review was conducted using established review methodology and extensive searches of published and grey literature sources. Data extraction and quality appraisal of quantitative, qualitative and case studies meeting inclusion criteria were conducted using standardised methods with reliability checking. FINDINGS: Forty-four studies from Africa, Asia and Latin America met the inclusion criteria (17 on biogas, 12 on LPG, 9 on solar, 6 on alcohol fuels). A broad range of inter-related enabling and limiting factors were identified for all four types of intervention, operating across seven pre-specified domains (i.e. fuel and technology characteristics, household and setting characteristics, knowledge and perceptions, financial, tax and subsidy aspects, market development, regulation, legislation and standards, and programme and policy mechanisms) and multiple levels (i.e. household, community, national). All domains matter and the majority of factors are common to all clean fuels interventions reviewed although some are fuel and technology-specific. All factors should therefore be taken into account and carefully assessed during planning and implementation of any small- and large-scale initiative aiming at promoting clean fuels for household cooking. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations in quantity and quality of the evidence this systematic review provides a useful starting point for the design, delivery and evaluation of programmes to ensure more effective adoption and use of LPG, biogas, alcohol fuels and solar cooking. FUNDING: This review was funded by the Department for International Development (DfID) of the United Kingdom. The authors would also like to thank the Evidence for Policy and Practice Information and Co-ordinating Centre (EPPI-Centre) for their technical support.

Sustainable emergency medical service systems: how much energy do we need?

OBJECTIVE: Modern emergency medical service (EMS) systems are vulnerable to both rising energy prices and potential energy shortages. Ensuring the sustainability of EMS systems requires an empirical understanding of the total energy requirements of EMS operations. This study was undertaken to determine the life cycle energy requirements of US EMS systems. METHODS: Input-output-based energy requirement multipliers for the US economy were applied to the annual budgets for a random sample of 19 metropolitan or county-wide EMS systems. Calculated per capita energy requirements of the EMS systems were used to estimate nationwide EMS energy requirements, and the leading energy sinks of the EMS supply chain were determined. RESULTS: Total US EMS-related energy requirements are estimated at 30 to 60 petajoules (10(15) J) annually. Direct ("scope 1") energy consumption, primarily in the form of vehicle fuels but also in the form of natural gas and heating oil, accounts for 49% of all EMS-related energy requirements. The energy supply chain-including system electricity consumption ("scope 2") as well as the upstream ("scope 3") energy required to generate and distribute liquid fuels and natural gas-accounts for 18% of EMS energy requirements. Scope 3 energy consumption in the materials supply chain accounts for 33% of EMS energy requirements. Vehicle purchases, leases, maintenance, and repair are the most energy-intense components of the non-energy EMS supply chain (23%), followed by medical supplies and equipment (21%). CONCLUSION: Although less energy intense than other aspects of the US healthcare system, ground EMS systems require substantial amounts of energy each year.

Exposure to cooking fuels and birth weight in Lanzhou, China: a birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early studies have suggested that biomass cooking fuels were associated with increased risk of low birth weight (LBW). However it is unclear if this reduced birth weight was due to prematurity or intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). METHODS: In order to understand the relationship between various cooking fuels and risk of LBW and small for gestational age (SGA), we analyzed data from a birth cohort study conducted in Lanzhou, China which included 9,895 singleton live births. RESULTS: Compared to mothers using gas as cooking fuel, significant reductions in birth weight were observed for mothers using coal (weight difference = 73.31 g, 95 % CI: 26.86, 119.77) and biomass (weight difference = 87.84 g, 95 % CI: 10.76, 164.46). Using biomass as cooking fuel was associated with more than two-fold increased risk of LBW (OR = 2.51, 95 % CI: 1.26, 5.01), and the risk was mainly seen among preterm births (OR = 3.43, 95 % CI: 1.21, 9.74). No significant associations with LBW were observed among mothers using coal or electromagnetic stoves for cooking. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that exposure to biomass during pregnancy is associated with risk of LBW, and the effect of biomass on LBW may be primarily due to prematurity rather than IUGR.

Material flow analysis of fossil fuels in China during 2000-2010.

Since the relationship between the supply and demand of fossil fuels is on edge in the long run, the contradiction between the economic growth and limited resources will hinder the sustainable development of the Chinese society. This paper aims to analyze the input of fossil fuels in China during 2000-2010 via the material flow analysis (MFA) that takes hidden flows into account. With coal, oil, and natural gas quantified by MFA, three indexes, consumption and supply ratio (C/S ratio), resource consumption intensity (RCI), and fossil fuels productivity (FFP), are proposed to reflect the interactions between population, GDP, and fossil fuels. The results indicated that in the past 11 years, China's requirement for fossil fuels has been increasing continuously because of the growing mine productivity in domestic areas, which also leads to a single energy consumption structure as well as excessive dependence on the domestic exploitation. It is advisable to control the fossil fuels consumption by energy recycling and new energy facilities' popularization in order to lead a sustainable access to nonrenewable resources and decrease the soaring carbon emissions.

Modeling the relative GHG emissions of conventional and shale gas production.

Recent reports show growing reserves of unconventional gas are available and that there is an appetite from policy makers, industry, and others to better understand the GHG impact of exploiting reserves such as shale gas. There is little publicly available data comparing unconventional and conventional gas production. Existing studies rely on national inventories, but it is not generally possible to separate emissions from unconventional and conventional sources within these totals. Even if unconventional and conventional sites had been listed separately, it would not be possible to eliminate site-specific factors to compare gas production methods on an equal footing. To address this difficulty, the emissions of gas production have instead been modeled. In this way, parameters common to both methods of production can be held constant, while allowing those parameters which differentiate unconventional gas and conventional gas production to vary. The results are placed into the context of power generation, to give a ″well-to-wire″ (WtW) intensity. It was estimated that shale gas typically has a WtW emissions intensity about 1.8-2.4% higher than conventional gas, arising mainly from higher methane releases in well completion. Even using extreme assumptions, it was found that WtW emissions from shale gas need be no more than 15% higher than conventional gas if flaring or recovery measures are used. In all cases considered, the WtW emissions of shale gas powergen are significantly lower than those of coal.

Life expectancy impacts due to heating energy utilization in China: Distribution, relations, and policy implications.

The relation between life expectancy and energy utilization is of particular concern. Different viewpoints concerned the health impacts of heating policy in China. However, it is still obscure that what kind of heating energy or what pattern of heating methods is the most related with the difference of life expectancies in China. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively investigate the spatial relations between life expectancy at birth (LEB) and different heating energy utilization in China by using spatial autocorrelation models including global spatial autocorrelation, local spatial autocorrelation and hot spot analysis. The results showed that: (1) Most of heating energy exhibit a distinct north-south difference, such as central heating supply, stalks and domestic coal. Whereas spatial distribution of domestic natural gas and electricity exhibited west-east differences. (2) Consumption of central heating, stalks and domestic coal show obvious spatial dependence. Whereas firewood, natural gas and electricity did not show significant spatial autocorrelation. It exhibited an extinct south-north difference of heat supply, stalks and domestic coal which were identified to show significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (3) Central heating, residential boilers and natural gas did not show any significant correlations with LEB. While, the utilization of domestic coal and biomass showed significant negative correlations with LEB, and household electricity shows positive correlations. The utilization of domestic coal in China showed a negative effect on LEB, rather than central heating. To improve the solid fuel stoves and control consumption of domestic coal consumption and other low quality solid fuel is imperative to improve the public health level in China in the future.

Can natural gas save lives? Evidence from the deployment of a fuel delivery system in a developing country.

There has been a widespread displacement of coal by natural gas as space heating and cooking technology in Turkey in the last two decades, triggered by the deployment of natural gas networks. We examine the impact of this development on mortality among adults and the elderly by exploiting the variation in the timing of the deployment and the intensity of expansion of gas networks across provinces using data from 2001 to 2016. The results indicate that the expansion of natural gas has caused significant reductions in mortality among both adults and the elderly. These findings are supported by our auxiliary analysis, which demonstrates that the expansion of natural gas networks might have led to a significant improvement in air quality. Furthermore, we show that the mortality gains are primarily driven by reductions in cardio-respiratory deaths, which are more likely to be due to conditions caused or exacerbated by air pollution.

Closing the carbon cycle through rational use of carbon-based fuels.

In this paper, a brief overview is presented of natural gas as a fuel resource with subsequent carbon capture and re-use as a means to facilitate reduction and eventual elimination of man-made carbon emissions. A particular focus is shale gas and, to a lesser extent, methane hydrates, with the former believed to provide the most reasonable alternative as a transitional fuel toward a low-carbon future. An emphasis is placed on the gradual elimination of fossil resource usage as a fuel over the coming 35 to 85 years and its eventual replacement with renewable resources and nuclear power. Furthermore, it is proposed that synthesis of chemical feedstocks from recycled carbon dioxide and hydrogen-rich materials should be undertaken for specific applications in the transport sector which require access to high energy density fuels. To achieve the latter, carbon dioxide capture is imperative and possible synthetic routes for chemical feedstock production are briefly reviewed.