IL-6 trans-signaling in a humanized mouse model of scleroderma.

Fibrosis is regulated by interactions between immune and mesenchymal cells. However, the capacity of cell types to modulate human fibrosis pathology is poorly understood due to lack of a fully humanized model system. MISTRG6 mice were engineered by homologous mouse/human gene replacement to develop an immune system like humans when engrafted with human hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). We utilized MISTRG6 mice to model scleroderma by transplantation of healthy or scleroderma skin from a patient with pansclerotic morphea to humanized mice engrafted with unmatched allogeneic HSC. We identified that scleroderma skin grafts contained both skin and bone marrow-derived human CD4 and CD8 T cells along with human endothelial cells and pericytes. Unlike healthy skin, fibroblasts in scleroderma skin were depleted and replaced by mouse fibroblasts. Furthermore, HSC engraftment alleviated multiple signatures of fibrosis, including expression of collagen and interferon genes, and proliferation and activation of human T cells. Fibrosis improvement correlated with reduced markers of T cell activation and expression of human IL-6 by mesenchymal cells. Mechanistic studies supported a model whereby IL-6 trans-signaling driven by CD4 T cell-derived soluble IL-6 receptor complexed with fibroblast-derived IL-6 promoted excess extracellular matrix gene expression. Thus, MISTRG6 mice transplanted with scleroderma skin demonstrated multiple fibrotic responses centered around human IL-6 signaling, which was improved by the presence of healthy bone marrow-derived immune cells. Our results highlight the importance of IL-6 trans-signaling in pathogenesis of scleroderma and the ability of healthy bone marrow-derived immune cells to mitigate disease.

Morphoea presenting histopathologically as mycosis fungoides: an illustrative series of four cases.

AIMS: There have been exceptional reports of morphoea presenting with epidermal changes overlapping histopathologically with cutaneous T cell lymphoma of the mycosis fungoides type (MF). This phenomenon gives rise to an ambiguous clinicopathological scenario in which distinguishing these conditions may be challenging. The aim of this study is to characterise the clinical, histopathological and molecular findings of this phenomenon through a case series. METHODS AND RESULTS: Four patients with classical clinical presentation of morphoea but unusual histopathology displaying typical findings of morphoea, together with intra-epidermal CD8 positive lymphocytes indistinguishable from MF, were identified. The clinical phenotypes of morphoea were varied, and they all presented early in the active phase of the disease. They all exhibited intra-epidermal lymphocytes with tagging and cytological atypia. Pautrier-like microabscesses were also seen. Using molecular analysis, two cases showed clonal TCR gene rearrangement. Follow-up of all cases has been consistent with classical morphoea. CONCLUSION: Early morphoea can seldom present with atypical clonal intra-epidermal lymphocytes indistinguishable from MF. The fact that these changes can occur in several different clinical subtypes of morphoea raises the possibility that this could be a pattern of inflammation in early disease more common than currently appreciated.

Transplantation of in vitro prefabricated adipose organoids attenuates skin fibrosis by restoring subcutaneous fat and inducing dermal adipogenesis.

Localized scleroderma is a complex autoimmune disease characterized by dermal fibrosis and loss of cutaneous fat. While cytotherapy offers a promising treatment option, stem cell transplantation results in low survival rates and fails in target cell differentiation. In this study, we aimed to prefabricate syngeneic adipose organoids (ad-organoids) using microvascular fragments (MVFs) via three-dimensional (3D) culturing and transplant them beneath the fibrotic skin to restore subcutaneous fat and reverse the pathological manifestation of localized scleroderma. We employed 3D culturing of syngeneic MVFs with stepwise angiogenic and adipogenic induction to produce ad-organoids and evaluated their microstructure and paracrine function in vitro. C57/BL6 mice with induced skin scleroderma were treated with adipose-derived stem cells (ASCs), adipocytes, ad-organoids, and Matrigel, and the therapeutic effect was assessed histologically. Our results showed that ad-organoids derived from MVF contained mature adipocytes and a well-established vessel network, secreted multiple adipokines, promoted adipogenic differentiation of ASCs, and suppressed proliferation and migration of scleroderma fibroblasts. Subcutaneous transplantation of ad-organoids reconstructed the subcutaneous fat layer and stimulated dermal adipocyte regeneration in bleomycin-induced scleroderma skin. It reduced collagen deposition and dermal thickness, attenuating dermal fibrosis. Moreover, ad-organoids suppressed macrophage infiltration and promoted angiogenesis in the skin lesion. In conclusion, 3D culturing of MVFs with stepwise angiogenic and adipogenic induction is an effective strategy for the fabrication of ad-organoids, and the transplantation of prefabricated ad-organoids can improve skin sclerosis by restoring cutaneous fat and attenuating skin fibrosis. These findings offer a promising therapeutic approach for the treatment of localized scleroderma.

Brown adipose tissue transplantation improves skin fibrosis in localized scleroderma.

Adipose tissue transplantation shows great therapeutic potential in reversing localized scleroderma-associated skin fibrosis. Brown adipose tissue (BAT) can specifically secrete various cytokines against fibrosis, but its therapeutic potential in improving skin fibrosis has not yet been demonstrated. In this study, we have demonstrated the superior therapeutic efficacy of BAT transplantation for sclerotic skin by transplanting two distinct types of adipose tissue. In comparison to the white adipose tissue (WAT) group, mice treated with BAT transplantation exhibited a significant reduction in dermal thickness. BAT transplantation effectively reverses skin sclerosis through mechanisms involving inflammation reduction, promotion of angiogenesis, inhibition of myofibroblast accumulation, and collagen deposition. This therapeutic effect can be attributed to its unique paracrine effects. Furthermore, transcriptome sequencing (RNA-Seq) revealed upregulation of pathways associated with lipogenesis and fatty acid metabolism in BAT while downregulating pathways are related to transforming growth factor ß(TGF-ß), epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), and inflammatory response. These findings suggest that BAT transplantation holds great promise as a novel approach for localized scleroderma treatment.

Interleukin-4 Receptor α Signaling in Myeloid Cells Controls Collagen Fibril Assembly in Skin Repair.

Activation of the immune response during injury is a critical early event that determines whether the outcome of tissue restoration is regeneration or replacement of the damaged tissue with a scar. The mechanisms by which immune signals control these fundamentally different regenerative pathways are largely unknown. We have demonstrated that, during skin repair in mice, interleukin-4 receptor α (IL-4Rα)-dependent macrophage activation controlled collagen fibril assembly and that this process was important for effective repair while having adverse pro-fibrotic effects. We identified Relm-α as one important player in the pathway from IL-4Rα signaling in macrophages to the induction of lysyl hydroxylase 2 (LH2), an enzyme that directs persistent pro-fibrotic collagen cross-links, in fibroblasts. Notably, Relm-ß induced LH2 in human fibroblasts, and expression of both factors was increased in lipodermatosclerosis, a condition of excessive human skin fibrosis. Collectively, our findings provide mechanistic insights into the link between type 2 immunity and initiation of pro-fibrotic pathways.

The Free Sign in morphea and other sclerosing disorders: A clue to the presence of early sclerosis?

BACKGROUND: The Floating Sign is a histopathologic clue to the diagnosis of autoimmune sclerosing skin disorders such as morphea and interstitial granulomatous dermatitis (IGD). On the other hand, the "free-floating" sign has been associated with neoplasms, for example, dermatofibroma and interstitial mycosis fungoides. Herein, we report the Free Sign in sclerosing skin disorders. METHODS: In a case-control study, we applied detailed histopathologic definitions of Floating Sign and Free Sign to assess their presence in morphea, IGD, and other sclerosing disorders. RESULTS: Free Sign was present in most cases of morphea (46/55, 84%) and IGD (7/13, 54%) but not necrobiosis lipoidica (NL) (6/14, 42.8%) or sclerodermoid graft versus host disease (SGVHD) (2/7, 28.5%). The sensitivity and specificity of Free Sign for morphea versus other disorders was 84% and 56%, respectively. Floating Sign was not identified in most cases: NL (3/14, 21.4%), SGVHD (1/7, 14.2%), morphea (5/55, 9%), IGD (1/13, 7.7%). The diagnostic sensitivity of Floating Sign in morphea was 9%. CONCLUSIONS: The Free Sign was present in most cases of morphea in our series and may represent a clue to the presence of evolving sclerosis. Free Sign may be seen in other sclerosing disorders. Technical artifact is a potential cause of a false-positive Free Sign.

Generalized early inflammatory morphea mimicking interstitial T-cell lymphoma: A diagnostic pitfall.

Early generalized morphea can clinically mimic mycosis fungoides. The microscopic features of early inflammatory morphea may show variable degrees of infiltration and do not have the characteristic dermal collagen sclerosis. We report the case of a 63-year-old female patient who presented with a 2-month history of an asymptomatic skin rash. Physical examination revealed multiple erythematous to dusky patches on the trunk and thighs, resembling the patch stage of mycosis fungoides. Two skin biopsies were performed, both of which showed prominent interstitial lymphoid infiltration in the reticular dermis without dermal sclerosis. Small lymphocyte exocytosis and lining along the dermal-epidermal junction were observed focally in the epidermis. Small clusters of plasma cells and eosinophils were observed in perivascular areas. Although no predominant clonality was found for CD4 and CD8 stains, 50% loss of CD5 antigen and 90% loss of CD7 antigen expression were apparent in immunohistochemical studies. Subsequent blood tests showed a normal blood cell count and positive human T-lymphotropic virus Type 1 antibodies. The overall findings suggested interstitial mycosis fungoides or early adult T-cell lymphoma-leukemia. The patient refused aggressive treatment, and 3 months later, she presented with indurated plaques from the previous rash. A repeat biopsy revealed the typical features of morphea. This report discussed the pitfalls in the clinical and histopathological diagnosis of early generalized inflammatory morphea that both clinicians and pathologists should consider.

Measurement equivalence of the English and French versions of the self-efficacy to manage chronic disease scale: a Scleroderma Patient-Centered Intervention Network (SPIN) study.

PURPOSE: The Self-Efficacy to Manage Chronic Disease (SEMCD) scale is widely used, including in systemic sclerosis (SSc). The SEMCD has been validated in SSc, but the metric equivalence of the English and French versions has not been assessed (i.e., whether psychometric properties are equivalent across English and French). METHODS: Participants were adults from the Scleroderma Patient-Centered Intervention Network (SPIN) Cohort (N = 2159) who completed baseline measures in English (n = 1473) or French (n = 686) between May 2014 to July 2020. Analyses assessed internal consistency reliability via Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega, convergent validity via Pearson's correlations, structural validity via confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and differential item functioning via the Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model. RESULTS: Internal consistency reliability was high in English (α = .93, ω = .93) and French (α = .92, ω = .93). All correlations between the SEMCD and measures of health outcomes were moderate to large, statistically significant, and in the hypothesized direction in both languages. The CFA demonstrated that the one-factor model of self-efficacy, overall, fit reasonably well (CFI = .96, TLI = .93, SRMR = .03, RMSEA = .14). Standardized factor loadings were large (.76 to .88). Three items displayed statistically significant uniform DIF and all six displayed nonuniform DIF; all DIF was of minimal magnitude. Comparison of unadjusted and DIF-adjusted models indicated that DIF did not meaningfully impact total score (ICC = 0.999, r = 0.999). CONCLUSION: Scores from English- and French-speaking adults with SSc can be combined for analysis or compared.

Carcinogenic risk in patients treated with UVA-1 phototherapy: A 5-year retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: UVA-1 phototherapy was first used to treat atopic dermatitis and afterwards to several other skin diseases. The contribution of UVA-1 in human photocarcinogenesis, skin photoaging, immune suppression, and hyperpigmentation is now well established. The actual contribution of UVA-1 radiation to the development of malignant melanoma (MM) in humans cannot be excluded. PURPOSE: The aim of the study is to evaluate the risk of developing skin cancers (non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) and MM) in patients treated with UVA-1 phototherapy with a 5-year dermatological follow-up. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 31 patients with morphea and atopic dermatitis treated with medium dose UVA-1 phototherapy (34 J/cm2). All enrolled patients underwent an oncologic prevention visit annually with a 5-year follow-up with clinical evaluation of the entire skin surface. RESULTS: During the 5-year follow-up, we recorded a case of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in the cervical region and one case of MM on the back (pT1a). In both cases, the patients were female and affected by morphea. The Glogau 3 group is prevalent (42%), which is consistent with moderate to severe aging; the data appear to be compatible with the age. CONCLUSIONS: This study attests that medium-dose UVA-1 phototherapy does not increase the risk of developing skin tumors and that UVA-1 phototherapy is not a worsening factor of facial photoaging. The main limitation of the study is the small sample size, avoiding to obtain statistically significant values. It was not possible to analyze individually the actual daily sun exposure during the 5-year observation period and to correlate it in terms of time and tumor development. Further studies with large sample sizes will be needed to confirm our data. Our study reaffirms how the dermatological examination performed annually is essential in the follow-up of patients undergoing this type of therapy.

High-frequency ultrasound evaluation of morphea: Retrospective analytical study.

BACKGROUND: To date, there are no accepted outcome measures to monitor morphea, and consensus on specific monitoring criteria for morphea remains elusive. A few studies have assessed the criterion validity of skin ultrasound in morphea. So, in this study, we approach ultrasound findings in morphea lesions. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a retrospective-analytical study conducted between December 2021 and May 2023. Patients were clinically evaluated at a dermatology outpatient clinic and then referred for high-frequency ultrasound (HF-US) evaluation and were selected to be included in this study. The lesions were confirmed by histopathology as well. Sonographic evaluations were performed on the lesion site and the symmetrical uninvolved other side. Dermal thickness and dermal echogenicities were recorded. Statistical analysis of group differences was performed by using the 2-tailed Student t-test. A p-value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Forty-one morphea lesions in the inflammatory phase of 27 patients were included in the study. The mean dermal thickness of morphea lesions was 1107.97 ± 414.3 and the mean dermal thickness of the control side was 1094.65 ± 331.06, The difference between these two variables was not statistically significant. The mean dermal density of lesions was 49.13 ± 18.97 and the mean dermal density of the control side was 52.22 ± 25.33. The difference between these two variables was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: This study shows that HF-US indicated increasing dermal thickness and reducing the dermal density of the morphea lesions in the inflammatory phase confirmed with the histopathology.

Consensus statement on the diagnosis and treatment of sclerosing diseases of the skin, Part 1: Localized scleroderma, systemic sclerosis and overlap syndromes.

The term 'sclerosing diseases of the skin' comprises specific dermatological entities, which have fibrotic changes of the skin in common. These diseases mostly manifest in different clinical subtypes according to cutaneous and extracutaneous involvement and can sometimes be difficult to distinguish from each other. The present consensus provides an update to the 2017 European Dermatology Forum Guidelines, focusing on characteristic clinical and histopathological features, diagnostic scores and the serum autoantibodies most useful for differential diagnosis. In addition, updated strategies for the first- and advanced-line therapy of sclerosing skin diseases are addressed in detail. Part 1 of this consensus provides clinicians with an overview of the diagnosis and treatment of localized scleroderma (morphea), and systemic sclerosis including overlap syndromes.

Morphea as an isotopic response to pigmented purpuric dermatosis and lichen striatus.

Morphea is an uncommon inflammatory and fibrosing disorder that has a polymorphous clinical presentation. We report two cases of morphea developing as an isotopic response after a preceding benign skin disease, accompanied by a review of the literature. This case series highlights the importance of return to care recommendations for benign skin conditions such lichen striatus and pigmented purpuric dermatoses due to the rare possibility of subsequent morphea development.

Novel multispectral imaging to predict disease progression in pediatric morphea.

BACKGROUND: Morphea, or localized scleroderma, is an inflammatory, fibrosing skin disorder that can be progressive and debilitating. Infrared thermography frequently has false positive results. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of multispectral imaging to predict disease progression in children with morphea. METHODS: Children with morphea were recruited between 2016 and 2022. Multispectral images of affected and matched contralateral unaffected sites were obtained using the Antera™ 3D camera. Clinical assessment was performed using the Localized Scleroderma Assessment Tool (LoSCAT). Children were followed up every 3 months for imaging and clinical review. The main outcome measurement was correlation of hemoglobin gradient between affected and matched contralateral unaffected tissue and progression. RESULTS: Of 17 children, the average age was 12 years (range 6-18 years); most were female (76.5%) and white (94.1%). Nearly two-thirds (64.7%) had linear morphea, 35.2% had plaque morphea; 58.8% had been treated with systemic agents. The average LoSCAT score was 20.6 (range 5-73). The average hemoglobin gradient between affected and matched contralateral unaffected skin was four times higher in those who had progression (average differential 0.3, range 0.1-0.4) compared to those who did not (average differential 0.08, range 0.02-0.15). Using a cut off of a 0.18 hemoglobin gradient between affected and unaffected skin, the sensitivity of multispectral imaging for detecting progression in pediatric morphea is 90% with specificity of 100%. CONCLUSIONS: Multispectral imaging is a novel assessment tool with promising accuracy in predicting progression as an adjunct to clinical assessment in pediatric morphea. Further research should examine its performance against thermography.

S2k guideline: Diagnosis and therapy of localized scleroderma.

The updated S2k guideline deals with the diagnosis and therapy of localized scleroderma (LoS). LoS represents a spectrum of sclerotic skin diseases in which, depending on the subtype and localisation, structures such as adipose tissue, muscles, joints, and bones may also be affected. Involvement of internal organs or progression to systemic sclerosis does not occur. LoS can be classified into four main forms: limited, generalized, linear, and mixed forms, with some additional subtypes. For cases of limited skin involvement, the guideline primarily recommends therapy with topical corticosteroids. UV therapy can also be recommended. In subtypes with severe skin or musculoskeletal involvement, systemic therapy with methotrexate is recommended. During the active phase of the disease, systemic glucocorticosteroids can be used additionally. In cases of methotrexate and steroid refractory courses, contraindications, or intolerance, mycophenolate mofetil, mycophenolic acid, or abatacept can be considered as second-line systemic therapies. In the case of linear LoS, autologous adipose-derived stem cell transplantation can also be performed for correcting soft tissue defects.

A Historic Cohort Analysis of Radiographic and Serologic Findings in Patients With Scleroderma and Interstitial Lung Disease.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Few studies have investigated associations between rheumatologic serology patterns and different interstitial lung disease (ILD) patterns. METHODS: We present novel findings of a historic cohort study (n = 454) with data collected from 2011 to 2021 within our hospital system. In this institutional review board-approved study, data regarding rheumatologic serologies and ILD patterns were noted based on chart review in patients with scleroderma. The Kruskal-Wallis rank sum and χ2 tests were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Results showed a statistically significant association between anti-U1 snRNP with lymphoid interstitial pneumonia, which has not been previously described. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated novel serologic associations with ILD patterns, which have important clinical implications. More robust and high-powered studies are needed to elucidate the role of serologic testing and their association with ILD phenotypes.

Extragenital lichen sclerosus et atrophicus-morphea overlap as an initial presentation of genital lichen sclerosus.

Lichen sclerosus et atrophicus (LSA) is a chronic inflammatory disorder, most often characterized by atrophic skin plaques located on female genitalia. Infrequently, LSA may present extragenitally; however, much is unknown about the temporal relationship between genital and extragenital LSA. Morphea, also known as localized scleroderma, is a rare inflammatory skin condition characterized by sclerotic plaques. Investigators debate whether LSA and morphea exist on the same spectrum of disease, with LSA representing a superficial variant of morphea involving genitalia, or if they are distinct but coincidental entities. Although researchers have described LSA and morphea occurring in different locations on the same patient, few reports describe LSA and morphea occurring in the same lesion and in the inguinal folds. Herein, we report a case of a 62-year-old woman with extragenital LSA-morphea overlap in the inguinal folds, who three months later developed genital LSA. Extragenital LSA-morphea in the same plaque, with no signs of genital lesions on initial exam, with later development of genital LSA, is especially uncommon. The temporal progression of extragenital LSA-morphea overlap to genital LSA over a three-month period is an important contribution to the literature, as the temporal relationship between extragenital and genital LSA is not previously discussed.

Global research status of localised scleroderma reported over the period 1993-2022: A 30-year bibliometric analysis.

Localised scleroderma predominantly affects the skin with an unknown aetiology. Despite its clinical importance, no comprehensive bibliometric analysis has been conducted to assess the existing research landscape and future prospects for localised scleroderma. The articles related to localised scleroderma were retrieved from the WoSCC database and analysed by VOSviewer 1.6.10.0 (Leiden University, Netherlands), CiteSpace 6.1.R1 (Dreiser University, USA), and HistCite 2.1 (New York, United States). 2049 research papers pertaining to localised scleroderma spanning the years from 1993 to 2022 were extracted from the WoSCC database. The United States exhibited the highest productivity with 644 papers, accounting for 31.43% of the total output, followed by Germany with 206 papers (10.05%) and Italy with 200 papers (9.76%). Regarding academic institutions and journals, the University of Texas System and Dermatology published the most significant number of papers, and Professor Ihn, H emerged as the most prolific contributor among scholars. The top 10 cited references primarily concentrated on the diagnosis and treatment of localised scleroderma. "Phototherapy" and "methotrexate (MTX)" surfaced as the most recent and noteworthy keywords, representing the research hotspots in the domain of localised scleroderma. This bibliometric analysis furnishes valuable insights into the contemporary research landscape of localised scleroderma.

Scleroderma-like Lesions in a Patient Undergoing Combined Pembrolizumab and Routine Chemotherapy: A Case Report and Literature Review.

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) represents a challenging malignancy with limited treatment options and a poor prognosis. Adjuvant therapies, including chemotherapy and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), are commonly employed following breast conservation surgery. However, these treatments can lead to various adverse effects, including cutaneous complications and connective tissue disorders. Here, we present the case of a 54-year-old woman with TNBC who developed morphea, a form of localized scleroderma, following adjuvant chemotherapy and pembrolizumab administration. This case highlights the rarity of drug-induced morphea and emphasizes the importance of recognizing and managing such adverse events in breast cancer patients. We discuss the clinical characteristics, diagnostic challenges, and treatment considerations associated with drug-induced scleroderma-like lesions, as well as the potential mechanisms underlying their development. Furthermore, we review the literature on the incidence, clinical features, and outcomes of scleroderma-like lesions induced by chemotherapy and ICIs. This case underscores the need for increased awareness of immune-related adverse events in patients receiving immunotherapy, as well as the importance of individualized treatment approaches to optimize patient care and outcomes.

Improving outcomes in scleroderma: recent progress of cell-based therapies.

Scleroderma is a rare, potentially fatal, clinically heterogeneous, systemic autoimmune connective tissue disorder that is characterized by progressive fibrosis of the skin and visceral organs, vasculopathy and immune dysregulation. The more severe form of the disease, diffuse cutaneous scleroderma (dcSSc), has no cure and limited treatment options. Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation has emerged as a potentially disease-modifying treatment but faces challenges such as toxicity associated with fully myeloablative conditioning and recurrence of autoimmunity. Novel cell therapies-such as mesenchymal stem cells, chimeric antigen receptor-based therapy, tolerogenic dendritic cells and facilitating cells-that may restore self-tolerance with more favourable safety and tolerability profiles are being explored for the treatment of dcSSc and other autoimmune diseases. This narrative review examines these evolving cell therapies.

Prediction of damage trajectories in systemic sclerosis using group-based trajectory modelling.

OBJECTIVES: Damage accrual in SSc can be tracked using the Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium Damage Index (DI). Our goal was to develop a prediction model for damage accrual in SSc patients with early disease. METHODS: Using patients with <2 years disease duration from Canada and Australia as a derivation cohort, and from the Netherlands as a validation cohort, we used group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) to determine 'good' and 'bad' latent damage trajectories. We developed a prediction model from this analysis and applied it to patients from derivation and validation cohorts. We plotted the actual DI trajectories of the patients predicted to be in 'good' or 'bad' groups. RESULTS: We found that the actual trajectories of damage accumulation for lcSSc and dcSSc were very different, so we studied each subset separately. GBTM found two distinct trajectories in lcSSc and three in dcSSc. We collapsed the two worse trajectories in the dcSSc into one group and developed a prediction model for inclusion in either 'good' or 'bad' trajectories. The performance of models using only baseline DI and sex was excellent with ROC AUC of 0.9313 for lcSSc and 0.9027 for dcSSc. Using this model, we determined whether patients would fall into 'good' or 'bad' trajectory groups and then plotted their actual trajectories which showed clear differences between the predicted 'good' and 'bad' cases in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A simple model using only cutaneous subset, baseline DI and sex can predict damage accumulation in early SSc.