Biomarker analysis from the phase 2b randomized placebo-controlled trial of riociguat in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine disease and target engagement biomarkers in the RISE-SSc trial of riociguat in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis and their potential to predict the response to treatment. METHODS: Patients were randomized to riociguat (n = 60) or placebo (n = 61) for 52 weeks. Skin biopsies and plasma/serum samples were obtained at baseline and week 14. Plasma cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) was assessed using radio-immunoassay. Alpha smooth muscle actin (αSMA) and skin thickness were determined by immunohistochemistry, mRNA markers of fibrosis by qRT-PCR in skin biopsies, and serum CXC motif chemokine ligand 4 (CXCL-4) and soluble platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1 (sPECAM-1) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: By week 14, cGMP increased by 94 ± 78% with riociguat and 10 ± 39% with placebo (p < 0.001, riociguat vs placebo). Serum sPECAM-1 and CXCL-4 decreased with riociguat vs placebo (p = 0.004 and p = 0.008, respectively). There were no differences in skin collagen markers between the 2 groups. Higher baseline serum sPECAM-1 or the detection of αSMA-positive cells in baseline skin biopsies were associated with a larger reduction of modified Rodnan skin score from baseline at week 52 with riociguat vs placebo (interaction P-values 0.004 and 0.02, respectively). CONCLUSION: Plasma cGMP increased with riociguat, suggesting engagement with the nitric oxide-soluble guanylate cyclase-cGMP pathway. Riociguat was associated with a significant reduction in sPECAM-1 (an angiogenic biomarker) vs placebo. Elevated sPECAM-1 and the presence of αSMA-positive skin cells may help to identify patients who could benefit from riociguat in terms of skin fibrosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02283762.

Evaluation of the Rheumatoid Arthritis Impact of Disease (RAID) Score in Assessing Rheumatoid Arthritis Activity in Teleconsultation.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relevance of the Rheumatoid Arthritis Impact of Disease (RAID) score as a disease activity marker of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a teleconsultation setting. METHODS: A prospective, observational, 24-month, single-center study involving patients with RA who underwent teleconsultations was performed. The RAID score was sent to all patients by email and completed the day before the scheduled session. The RAID questionnaire was also completed just prior to the next scheduled face-to-face consultation. The same physician performed teleconsultation/in-person consultations and was unaware of the RAID results. RESULTS: We included 70 patients (mean age 50 [SD 14] yrs, mean disease duration 10 [SD 9] yrs). The RAID score correlated with the following items: patient global assessment (r 0.55, P < 0.001), patient-reported swollen joint count (r 0.50, P < 0.001), and Disease Activity Score in 28 joints based on C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) calculated with patient self-reported tender/swollen joints (r 0.74, P < 0.001). The RAID score completed during the next face-to-face consultation for 45 patients also correlated with the DAS28-CRP performed by the clinician (r 0.65, P < 0.001). A RAID score > 2 was associated with the best combination of sensitivity (94%) and specificity (43%) for the indication of rapid in-person consultation because of insufficiently controlled disease activity, with an area under the curve of 0.74. All 23 patients with RAID < 2 had no intercurrent flares; overall physician global assessment was 1.6 of 10 (SD 1.4), DAS28-CRP 1.5 (SD 0.2), and CRP 1.8 (SD 1.4) mg/L. CONCLUSION: Our findings reinforce the RAID score as a valuable tool in teleconsultation, exhibiting a good correlation with disease activity variables. Using a RAID score threshold of 2 during teleconsultations could distinguish patients with good disease control and those with the potential need for an in-person visit.

A randomised, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 study to Determine the effectiveness of the type I interferon receptor antibody, Anifrolumab, In SYstemic sclerosis: DAISY study design and rationale.

OBJECTIVES: The type I interferon pathway is a promising target for treatment of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Here, we describe the design of a multinational, randomised phase 3 study to Determine the effectiveness of the type I interferon receptor antibody, Anifrolumab, In SYstemic sclerosis (DAISY). METHODS: DAISY includes a 52-week double-blind, placebo-controlled treatment period, a 52-week open-label active treatment period, and a 12-week safety follow-up period. The patient population includes a planned 306 adults with limited or diffuse cutaneous active SSc who satisfied American College of Rheumatology/European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology 2013 SSc criteria. Use of standard immunosuppressants, including mycophenolate mofetil, at a stable dose prior to randomisation is permitted in addition to weekly subcutaneous anifrolumab or placebo. Efficacy will be assessed at Week 52 via Revised-Composite Response Index in SSc (CRISS)-25 response (primary endpoint). Lung function and skin thickness will be assessed via change from baseline in forced vital capacity in patients with SSc-associated interstitial lung disease and modified Rodnan Skin Score, respectively (key secondary endpoints). CONCLUSIONS: The DAISY trial will evaluate the efficacy and safety of anifrolumab as a first-in-class treatment option for patients with both limited and diffuse cutaneous SSc and will provide insight into the contributions of type I interferon to SSc pathogenesis. Revised-CRISS-25 can account for improvement and worsening in a broad set of validated clinical measures beyond lung function and skin thickness, including clinician- and patient-reported outcomes, capturing the heterogeneity of SSc.

Systemic sclerosis is a chronic autoimmune disease that leads to inflammation and scarring of the skin and internal organs, especially the lungs. Systemic sclerosis and lupus are both associated with increased interferon signalling, which is usually triggered by viral infections, but is related to damaging inflammation in these diseases. Anifrolumab, a drug that blocks interferon signalling, is already used to treat patients with lupus (also known as SLE), so it could potentially be used to treat patients with systemic sclerosis. This publication details the DAISY study design and explains why it is needed. This study will follow 2 groups of 153 patients with systemic sclerosis over 2 years. During the first year, in addition to any standard immunosuppressant therapy, the groups will receive weekly injections of either anifrolumab or "dummy drug" (placebo). In the second year, all patients will receive anifrolumab with their standard immunosuppressant therapy. Multiple factors will be considered to evaluate the efficacy of anifrolumab treatment, including clinical measurements of skin thickness and lung function, and questionnaires completed by clinicians and patients to report on patient health and their everyday function during treatment. The DAISY study will investigate the efficacy and safety of anifrolumab treatment in a diverse group of patients with systemic sclerosis who currently have limited options for effective treatment. The study will evaluate the impact of anifrolumab treatment on multiple aspects of the disease, and how patients feel about their overall health-related quality of life.

Lysophosphatidic acid receptor 1 inhibition: a potential treatment target for pulmonary fibrosis.

Lysophosphatidic acid (LPA)-mediated activation of LPA receptor 1 (LPAR1) contributes to the pathophysiology of fibrotic diseases such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and systemic sclerosis (SSc). These diseases are associated with high morbidity and mortality despite current treatment options. The LPA-producing enzyme autotaxin (ATX) and LPAR1 activation contribute to inflammation and mechanisms underlying fibrosis in preclinical fibrotic models. Additionally, elevated levels of LPA have been detected in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from patients with IPF and in serum from patients with SSc. Thus, ATX and LPAR1 have gained considerable interest as pharmaceutical targets to combat fibrotic disease and inhibitors of these targets have been investigated in clinical trials for IPF and SSc. The goals of this review are to summarise the current literature on ATX and LPAR1 signalling in pulmonary fibrosis and to help differentiate the novel inhibitors in development. The mechanisms of action of ATX and LPAR1 inhibitors are described and preclinical studies and clinical trials of these agents are outlined. Because of their contribution to numerous physiologic events underlying fibrotic disease, ATX and LPAR1 inhibition presents a promising therapeutic strategy for IPF, SSc and other fibrotic diseases that may fulfil unmet needs of the current standard of care.

Deficiency and altered phenotype of mucosal-associated invariant T cells in systemic sclerosis.

Objective: Systemic sclerosis is an autoimmune disease characterized by fibrosis of the skin and internal organs including the lung. Mucosal-associated invariant T cells are innate-like T lymphocytes able to produce various cytokines and cytotoxic mediators such as granzyme B. A large body of evidence supports a role of mucosal-associated invariant T cells in autoimmune disease but more recent reports suggest also a potential role in fibrotic conditions. Therefore, we herein addressed the question as whether mucosal-associated invariant T cells may have an altered profile in systemic sclerosis. Methods: Mucosal-associated invariant T cell frequency was analyzed by flow cytometry, using fresh peripheral blood from 74 consecutive systemic sclerosis patients who were compared to 44 healthy donors. In addition, in-depth mucosal-associated invariant T cell phenotype and function were analyzed in unselected 29 women with systemic sclerosis who were compared to 23 healthy women donors. Results: Proportion of circulating mucosal-associated invariant T cells was significantly reduced by 68% in systemic sclerosis compared to healthy donors (0.78% in systemic sclerosis vs 2.5%, p < 0.0001). Within systemic sclerosis subsets, mucosal-associated invariant T cells were reduced in patients with interstitial lung disease (systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease) (0.56% vs 0.96% in patients without interstitial lung disease, p = 0.04). Moreover, in systemic sclerosis patients, mucosal-associated invariant T cells displayed an activated phenotype indicated by markedly increased CD69+ mucosal-associated invariant T cell frequency (20% mucosal-associated invariant T cell CD69+ compared to 9.4% in healthy donors, p = 0.0014). Interestingly, mucosal-associated invariant T cells from systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease patients had a more pronounced altered phenotype compared to systemic sclerosis without interstitial lung disease with a correlation between mucosal-associated invariant T cells expressing CCR6+ and mucosal-associated invariant T cell frequency (r = 0.8, p = 0.006). Conclusion: Circulating mucosal-associated invariant T cells were reduced and exhibited an activated phenotype in systemic sclerosis patients. This peripheral mucosal-associated invariant T cell deficiency may be related to enhanced apoptosis and/or homing in inflamed tissue, particularly in systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease patients.

Attitudes and barriers to pulmonary arterial hypertension screening in systemic sclerosis patients: A survey of UK-based rheumatologists.

Objectives: The objectives were to explore rheumatologists' current clinical screening practices of pulmonary arterial hypertension in patients with systemic sclerosis in the United Kingdom and to identify barriers to screening and consider potential solutions. Methods: A survey of 31 questions was developed and included six sections: clinician demographics, the importance of screening, screening practices, barriers to screening, treatment and patient education. The survey was disseminated among rheumatologists working in the United Kingdom. Results: Forty-four rheumatologists working in the United Kingdom participated in the study, and the majority completed all the questions. Around one-third (37.0%) worked in specialised systemic sclerosis units (university or general hospitals (54.5% and 45.4%, respectively)). The majority recognised that systemic sclerosis-pulmonary arterial hypertension is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Over half (60.0%) reported using the DETECT algorithm to screen for systemic sclerosis-pulmonary arterial hypertension, although other algorithms were also sometimes used. All of the respondents utilised transthoracic echocardiogram, and almost all (95.0%) performed pulmonary function tests for screening purposes. Various challenges and barriers were identified relating to systemic sclerosis-pulmonary arterial hypertension screening, with the difficulty in interpreting results from other hospitals and extended wait times for diagnostic tests being the most reported (76.0% and 74.0%, respectively). Most respondents agreed that access to key investigations (87.0%), ongoing clinician education (82.0%), multidisciplinary meetings (79.5%) and a better understanding of proposed screening algorithms (79.5%) could be potential solutions. Conclusion: Screening patients with systemic sclerosis for pulmonary arterial hypertension is crucial to improve survival, but variable practices exist among UK rheumatologists. Solutions include educating healthcare professionals on guidelines, sharing information between centres and integrating care services.

The Performance of Pulmonary Function Tests in Predicting Systemic Sclerosis-Interstitial Lung Disease in the European Scleroderma Trial and Research Database.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In SSc, ILD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. We aimed to investigate the performance of DLCO (diffusing capacity of lung carbon monoxide) and FVC (forced vital capacity) delta change (Δ) and baseline values in predicting the development of SSc-ILD. METHODS: Longitudinal data of DLCO, FVC, and ILD on the HRCT of SSc patients from the EUSTAR database were evaluated at baseline (t0) and after 12 (±4) (t1) and 24 (±4) (t2) months. RESULTS: 474/17805 patients were eligible for the study (403 females); 46 (9.7%) developed ILD at t2. Positivity for anti-topoisomerase antibodies (117 patients) showed an association with ILD development at t2 (p = 0.0031). Neither the mean t0 to t1 change (Δ) of DLCO nor the mean t0 to t1 FVCΔ predicted the appearance of ILD at t2. Investigating the possible role of baseline DLCO and FVC values in predicting ILD appearance after 24 (±4) months, we observed a moderate predictive capability of t0 DLCO < 80%, stronger than that of FVC < 80%. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that an impaired baseline DLCO may be predictive of the appearance of ILD after 2 years of follow-up. This result advances the hypothesis that a reduction in gas exchange may be considered an early sign of lung involvement. However, further rigorous studies are warranted to understand the predictive role of DLCO evaluation in the course of SSc.

Tailoring the treatment of inflammatory rheumatic diseases by a better stratification and characterization of the clinical patient heterogeneity. Findings from a systematic literature review and experts' consensus.

Inflammatory rheumatic diseases are different pathologic conditions associated with a deregulated immune response, codified along a spectrum of disorders, with autoinflammatory and autoimmune diseases as two-end phenotypes of this continuum. Despite pathogenic differences, inflammatory rheumatic diseases are commonly managed with a limited number of immunosuppressive drugs, sometimes with partial evidence or transferring physicians' knowledge in different patients. In addition, several randomized clinical trials, enrolling these patients, did not meet the primary pre-established outcomes and these findings could be linked to the underlying molecular diversities along the spectrum of inflammatory rheumatic disorders. In fact, the resulting patient heterogeneity may be driven by differences in underlying molecular pathology also resulting in variable responses to immunosuppressive drugs. Thus, the identification of different clinical subsets may possibly overcome the major obstacles that limit the development more effective therapeutic strategies for these patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases. This clinical heterogeneity could require a diverse therapeutic management to improve patient outcomes and increase the frequency of clinical remission. Therefore, the importance of better patient stratification and characterization is increasingly pointed out according to the precision medicine principles, also suggesting a new approach for disease treatment. In fact, based on a better proposed patient profiling, clinicians could more appropriately balance the therapeutic management. On these bases, we synthetized and discussed the available literature about the patient profiling in regard to therapy in the context of inflammatory rheumatic diseases, mainly focusing on randomized clinical trials. We provided an overview of the importance of a better stratification and characterization of the clinical heterogeneity of patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases identifying this point as crucial in improving the management of these patients.

Beyond very early systemic sclerosis: deciphering pre­scleroderma and its trajectories to open new avenues for preventive medicine.

The identification of individuals with systemic sclerosis in an oligosymptomatic phase preceding the very early manifestations of the disease represents a challenge in the search for a new window of opportunity in systemic sclerosis. This phase could be identified in a clinical scenario as the pre-scleroderma phase, in which the disease would still be far from systemic sclerosis-related fibrotic or irreversible manifestations in skin or organs. In this Personal View, we discuss parameters and candidate definitions for a conceptual framework of pre-scleroderma, from the identification of populations at risk to autoantibodies and their potential functional activities. We discuss how this new paradigm of pre-scleroderma could represent a game-changing approach in the management of systemic sclerosis, allowing the treatment of patients at high risk of organ involvement or skin fibrosis before such events occur.

The role of skin ultrasound in systemic sclerosis: looking below the surface to understand disease evolution.

Skin ultrasound has shown promising results in the evaluation of skin involvement in patients with systemic sclerosis, as substantiated by a recent systematic literature review from the World Scleroderma Foundation Skin Ultrasound Working Group. In this Viewpoint, we will discuss the role of ultrasound in evaluating skin involvement in patients with systemic sclerosis, particularly the possibility of using this technique to detect an early subclinical skin involvement from the very early phase, suggesting its possible use in both diagnosis and disease follow-up. To detect subclinical skin involvement, it is essential to understand the difference between the skin of patients with systemic sclerosis and that of healthy controls, including defining exactly which structures are affected by the disease and which are spared. The potential of this non-invasive technique might suggest its future role in both clinical practice and clinical trials, possibly replacing invasive and painful procedures such as skin biopsies and promoting patient retention in clinical trials.

Digital Ulcers and Ventricular Arrhythmias as Red Flags to Predict Replacement Myocardial Fibrosis in Systemic Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac involvement in systemic sclerosis (SSc) affects the prognosis of the disease. Echocardiography is the first line imaging tool to detect cardiac involvement, but it is not able to routinely detect myocardial fibrosis. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is the gold standard for replacement myocardial fibrosis assessment, but its availability is currently limited. AIM: We aimed to assess the clinical and instrumental parameters that would be useful for predicting the presence of LGE-CMR, to achieve a better selection of patients with SSc that could benefit from third-level CMR imaging. METHODS: 344 SSc patients underwent a comprehensive echocardiogram and LGE-CMR on the same day; for 189 patients, a 24 h ECG Holter monitoring was available. RESULTS: CMR showed non-junctional replacement myocardial fibrosis via LGE in 25.1% patients. A history of digital ulcers (OR 2.188; 95% C.I. 1.069-4.481) and ventricular arrhythmias at ECG Holter monitoring (OR 3.086; 95% C.I. 1.191-7.998) were independent predictors of replacement myocardial fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: CMR can detect patterns of clinical and subclinical cardiac involvement, which are frequent in SSc. A history of digital ulcers and evidence of ventricular arrhythmias at ECG Holter monitoring are red flags for the presence of replacement myocardial fibrosis in CMR. The association between digital ulcers and myocardial fibrosis suggests that a similar pathological substrate of abnormal vascular function may underlie peripheral vascular and cardiac complications.

Riociguat in patients with early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (RISE-SSc): open-label, long-term extension of a phase 2b, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The phase 2b Riociguat Safety and Efficacy in Patients with Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis (RISE-SSc) trial investigated riociguat versus placebo in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis. The long-term extension evaluated safety and exploratory treatment effects for an additional year. METHODS: Patients were enrolled to RISE-SSc between Jan 15, 2015, and Dec 8, 2016. Those who completed the 52-week, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, double-blind phase were eligible for the long-term extension. Patients originally assigned to riociguat continued therapy (riociguat-riociguat group). Those originally assigned to placebo were switched to riociguat (placebo-riociguat group), adjusted up to 2·5 mg three times daily in a 10-week, double-blind dose-adjustment phase, followed by an open-label phase. Statistical analyses were descriptive. Safety including adverse events and serious adverse events was assessed in the long-term safety analysis set (all patients randomly assigned and treated with study medication in the double-blind phase who continued study medication in the long-term extension). The RISE-SSc trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02283762. FINDINGS: In total, 87 (72%) of 121 patients in the main RISE-SSc study entered the long-term extension (riociguat-riociguat, n=42; placebo-riociguat, n=45). 65 (75%) of 87 patients were women, 22 (25%) were men, and 62 (71%) were White. Overall, 82 (94%) of 87 patients in the long-term extension had an adverse event; most (66 [76%] of 87) were of mild to moderate severity, with no increase in pulmonary-related serious adverse events in patients with interstitial lung disease. INTERPRETATION: No new safety signals were observed with long-term riociguat in patients with early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis. Study limitations include the absence of a comparator group in this open-label extension study. FUNDING: Bayer and Merck Sharp & Dohme.

Safety and tolerability of nintedanib in patients with interstitial lung diseases in subgroups by sex: a post-hoc analysis of pooled data from four randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Nintedanib is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor used in the treatment of progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). We assessed the safety and tolerability of nintedanib in patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs and with other ILDs in subgroups by sex. METHODS: In this post-hoc analysis, we pooled data from the two INPULSIS trials in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), the SENSCIS trial in patients with fibrosing ILDs associated with systemic sclerosis, and the INBUILD trial in patients with progressive fibrosing ILDs other than IPF. In each trial, patients were randomly assigned to receive oral nintedanib 150 mg twice daily or matched placebo. We assessed adverse events reported over 52 weeks in patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs and other ILDs in subgroups by sex. FINDINGS: In these analyses, we included 746 patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs (523 [70%] were female, 223 [30%] were male; 615 [82%] had systemic sclerosis), of whom 370 (50%) received nintedanib (268 [72%] female and 102 [28%] male patients) and 376 (50%) received placebo (255 [68%] female and 121 [32%] male patients); and 1554 patients with other ILDs (437 [28%] female, 1117 [72%] male; 1061 [68%] with IPF), of whom 888 (57%) received nintedanib (237 [27%] female and 651 [73%] male patients) and 666 (43%) received placebo (200 [30%] female and 466 [70%] male patients). Of 102 male and 268 female patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs treated with nintedanib, nausea was reported in 21 (21%) male and 92 (34%) female patients, vomiting in 12 (12%) male and 73 (27%) female patients, alanine aminotransferase increase in four (4%) male and 31 (12%) female patients, aspartate aminotransferase increase in three (3%) male and 23 (9%) female patients, and adverse events leading to dose reduction in 18 (18%) male and 101 (38%) female patients; 28 (27%) male and 107 (40%) female patients had at least one treatment interruption. Of 651 male and 237 female nintedanib-treated patients with other ILDs, nausea was reported in 135 (21%) male and 95 (40%) female patients, vomiting in 51 (8%) male and 70 (30%) female patients, alanine aminotransferase increase in 19 (3%) male and 31 (13%) female patients, aspartate aminotransferase increase in 17 (3%) male and 26 (11%) female patients, and adverse events leading to dose reduction in 106 (16%) male and 84 (35%) female patients; 155 (24%) male and 82 (35%) female patients had at least one treatment interruption. The proportions of patients with adverse events leading to discontinuation of nintedanib were similar between female and male patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs (44 [16%] of 268 vs 17 [17%] of 102), but were greater among female than male patients with other ILDs (62 [26%] of 237 vs 112 [17%] of 651). Across subgroups by diagnosis and sex, diarrhoea was the most frequent adverse event associated with nintedanib (autoimmune-related ILDs: 198 [74%] of 268 female and 73 [72%] of 102 male patients; other ILDs: 155 [65%] of 237 female and 408 [63%] of 651 male patients), and was the event that most frequently led to treatment discontinuation (autoimmune-related ILDs: 20 [7%] female and five [5%] male patients; other ILDs: 16 [7%] female and 27 [4%] male patients). INTERPRETATION: The adverse event profile of nintedanib was generally similar between male and female patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs, and between male and female patients with other ILDs, but nausea, vomiting, liver enzyme elevations, dose reductions, and treatment interruptions were more frequent in female patients than in male patients. Sex should be considered in the monitoring and management of adverse events that might be associated with nintedanib. FUNDING: Boehringer Ingelheim.

Sex-specific risk of anti-topoisomerase antibodies on mortality and disease severity in systemic sclerosis: 10-year analysis of the Leiden CCISS and EUSTAR cohorts.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate sex-specific risk of anti-topoisomerase I antibodies (ATA) on mortality, diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis, interstitial lung disease, and pulmonary hypertension in two cohorts of people with systemic sclerosis. METHODS: This study was a 10-year analysis of the prospective Leiden Combined Care in Systemic Sclerosis (CCISS) cohort in the Netherlands and the international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort. We included participants with systemic sclerosis according to the 2013 American College of Rheumatology-European League Against Rheumatism (ACR-EULAR) classification criteria; available autoantibody status; available skin subtyping; at least one available radiographic assessment of interstitial lung disease; and with a known date of disease onset. People with systemic sclerosis were categorised in six risk groups by sex and autoantibody status (anti-centromere antibody [ACA]-positive female, ACA-positive male, ACA and ATA-negative female, ACA and ATA-negative male, ATA-positive female, and ATA-positive male). We constructed Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models, accounting for left-truncated survival to prevent bias because the date of disease onset (first non-Raynaud's symptom) preceded the date of cohort entry for all patients. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality and the secondary outcomes were diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis, interstitial lung disease, and pulmonary hypertension. FINDINGS: 445 (63%) of 708 participants between April 1, 2009, and Jan 1, 2022, in CCISS (101 [23%] male and 344 [77%] female) and 4263 (50%) of 8590 between June 1, 2004, and March 28, 2018, in EUSTAR (783 [18%] male and 3480 [82%] female) were eligible for this study. In both cohorts, ATA expression occurred significantly more often in males than in females (39 [39%] of 101 males vs 67 [19%] of 344 females in CCISS; p<0·0001 and 381 [49%] of 783 males vs 1323 [38%] of 3480 females in EUSTAR; p<0·0001). According to estimated survival rates, 30% of ATA-positive males versus 12% of ATA-positive females died in the CCISS cohort and 33% versus 15% died in the EUSTAR cohort within 10 years. After adjustment for age, race, and autoantibody status, male sex remained the most important risk factor for all-cause mortality (HR 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·5] in CCISS, p=0·0018; and HR 2·6 [2·0-3·4] in EUSTAR, p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: We show that the association between male sex and increased mortality in systemic sclerosis cannot be explained by higher ATA prevalence. However, additional research on the effect of sex-specific characteristics on people with systemic sclerosis is required. FUNDING: None.

Stratification in systemic sclerosis according to autoantibody status versus skin involvement: a study of the prospective EUSTAR cohort.

BACKGROUND: The current subclassification of systemic sclerosis into cutaneous subtypes does not fully capture the heterogeneity of the disease. We aimed to compare the performances of stratification into LeRoy's cutaneous subtypes versus stratification by autoantibody status in systemic sclerosis. METHODS: For this cohort study, we assessed people with systemic sclerosis in the multicentre international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Individuals positive for systemic-sclerosis autoantibodies of two specificities were excluded, and remaining individuals were classified by cutaneous subtype, according to their systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies, or both. We assessed the performance of each model to predict overall survival, progression-free survival, disease progression, and different organ involvement. The three models were compared by use of the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and the net reclassification improvement (NRI). Missing data were imputed. FINDINGS: We assessed the database on July 26, 2019. Of 16 939 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 711 patients were included: 1647 (15·4%) of 10 709 were male, 9062 (84·6%) were female, mean age was 54·4 (SD 13·8) years, and mean disease duration was 7·9 (SD 8·2) years. Information regarding cutaneous subtype was available for 10 176 participants and antibody data were available for 9643 participants. In the prognostic analysis, there was no difference in AUC for overall survival (0·82, 95% CI 0·81-0·84 for cutaneous only vs 0·84, 0·82-0·85 for antibody only vs 0·84, 0·83-0·86 for combined) or for progression-free survival (0·70, 0·69-0·71 vs 0·71, 0·70-0·72 vs 0·71, 0·70-0·72). However, at 4 years the NRI showed substantial improvement for the antibody-only model compared with the cutaneous-only model in prediction of overall survival (0·57, 0·46-0·71 for antibody only vs 0·29, 0·19-0·39 for cutaneous only) and disease progression (0·36, 0·29-0·46 vs 0·21, 0·14-0·28). The antibody-only model did better than the cutaneous-only model in predicting renal crisis (AUC 0·72, 0·70-0·74 for antibody only vs 0·66, 0·64-0·69 for cutaneous only) and lung fibrosis leading to restrictive lung function (AUC 0·76, 0·75-0·77 vs 0·71, 0·70-0·72). The combined model improved the prediction of digital ulcers and elevated systolic pulmonary artery pressure, but did poorly for cardiac involvement. INTERPRETATION: The autoantibody-only model outperforms cutaneous-only subsetting for risk stratifying people with systemic sclerosis in the EUSTAR cohort. Physicians should be aware of these findings at the time of decision making for patient management. FUNDING: World Scleroderma Foundation.

Progression of patients with Raynaud's phenomenon to systemic sclerosis: a five-year analysis of the European Scleroderma Trial and Research group multicentre, longitudinal registry study for Very Early Diagnosis of Systemic Sclerosis (VEDOSS).

BACKGROUND: Preliminary criteria for the very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis (VEDOSS) have been previously proposed to identify signs and symptoms in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon. Patients with all signs or symptoms of the VEDOSS criteria already fulfil the 2013 American College of Rheumatology-European League Against Rheumatism (ACR-EULAR) classification criteria for systemic sclerosis. However, prospective data for the evolution to fulfilling these criteria do not exist. We therefore aimed to determine the clinical value of the VEDOSS criteria to identify patients with Raynaud's phenomenon who progress to systemic sclerosis within 5 years. METHODS: The VEDOSS project was a multicentre, longitudinal registry study done in 42 European Scleroderma Trial and Research group centres located in 20 countries in Europe, North America, and South America. Patients with Raynaud's phenomenon were eligible for enrolment. Those who had fulfilled the 1980 ACR or the 2013 ACR-EULAR classification criteria for systemic sclerosis, as well as of any other ACR or EULAR classification criteria for other definite connective tissue diseases at enrolment were excluded. Data were recorded each year during follow-up visits and included the four VEDOSS criteria (ie, positivity for antinuclear antibodies [ANAs], puffy fingers, systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies, and abnormal nailfold capillaroscopy). The primary endpoint was the fulfilment of the 2013 ACR-EULAR classification criteria for systemic sclerosis (ie, progression from enrolment to follow-up). Proportion of progressors and VEDOSS criteria interaction were reported descriptively. Predictors of progression of the distinct VEDOSS criteria interactions were determined based on the point prevalence at 5 years. To investigate the intermediate course of progression of the distinct VEDOSS criteria and their combinations, Kaplan-Meier analysis was done. RESULTS: Between March 1, 2010, and Oct 4, 2018, we enrolled 1150 patients with Raynaud's phenomenon in the VEDOSS database. 764 (66·4%) of 1150 patients met the VEDOSS criteria for study inclusion. Of the 764 patients, 553 (72·4%) had at least one available follow-up visit and the median duration of follow-up was 3·6 years (IQR 1·7-5·8). The mean age was 45·9 years (SD 15·0), 507 (91·7%) of 553 participants were female, and the median time since the onset of Raynaud's phenomenon was 4·0 years (IQR 1·7-10·0). At baseline, 401 (73·7%) of 544 patients with Raynaud's phenomenon had detectable ANA, with 208 (39·5%) of 527 patients positive for systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies. Nailfold capillaroscopy abnormalities were present in 182 (36·0%) of 505 patients and puffy fingers were detected in 96 (17·8%) of 540 at baseline. 1885 follow-up visits were recorded. 254 (45·9%) of 553 patients completed the study with progression or a 5-year follow-up; of whom, 133 reached the primary endpoint, resulting in an overall progression rate of 52·4%. The absence of ANA at baseline was the factor most strongly associated with a lack of progression within 5 years, with only four (10·8%) of 37 ANA-negative patients progressing. Conversely, positivity at baseline for systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies and puffy fingers was the combination having the highest risk of progression (16 [94·1%] of 17). INTERPRETATION: Our results from the VEDOSS project offers a useful tool for a stratified risk approach to patients with Raynaud's phenomenon. The absence of ANA is a strong protective factor that identifies patients with very low risk of developing systemic sclerosis whereas the presence of one or two VEDOSS criteria in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon confers a progressively higher risk for systemic sclerosis over time. This stratification tool can be used both for clinical management and to inform early interventional trials. FUNDING: European Scleroderma Trial And Research and World Scleroderma Foundation.

Circulating collagen neo-epitopes and their role in the prediction of fibrosis in patients with systemic sclerosis: a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Extracellular matrix remodelling is a hallmark of systemic sclerosis. We evaluated extracellular matrix neo-epitopes as potential serum biomarkers for progression of fibrosis in systemic sclerosis. METHODS: We included patients meeting the 2013 American College of Rheumatology and European League Against Rheumatism criteria and healthy controls from a derivation and validation cohort. The primary outcome was progression of fibrosis at follow-up, defined as decline in percentage of predicted forced vital capacity of 10% or more in patients with interstitial lung disease or increase in modified Rodnan skin score of 25% or more and more than 5 points at a 1-year follow-up visit. Longitudinal assessment and biobanking followed European Scleroderma Trials and Research standards. Extracellular matrix-degradation (BGM, C3M, C4M, and C6M) and extracellular matrix-formation neo-epitopes (PRO-C1, PRO-C3, PRO-C4, PRO-C5, and PRO-C6) were measured in serum using validated ELISAs. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Jan 19, 2015, 149 patients with systemic sclerosis (27 [18%] progressors and 122 [82%] non-progressors) and 29 healthy controls were included in the derivation cohort. Concentrations of type III and IV collagen neo-epitopes were higher in patients with systemic sclerosis compared with healthy controls and were significantly associated with systemic sclerosis in univariable logistic regression. Concentrations of degradation neo-epitopes of type III and IV collagens and their turnover ratios distinguished between progressors and non-progressors (C3M area under the curve 0·77 [95% CI 0·67-0·86], p<0·0001; PRO-C3:C3M 0·70 [0·59-0·80], p=0·0013; C4M 0·73 [0·63-0·82], p<0·0001; PRO-C4:C4M 0·75 [0·64-0·86], p<0·0001). 384 patients with systemic sclerosis (73 [19%] progressors) and 60 healthy controls were included in the multicentre validation cohort between April 17, 2003, and Jan 24, 2017. Analysis of the validation cohort confirmed that neo-epitopes of type III and IV collagens are changed in progressors. In a pooled analysis of both cohorts, the serum concentrations of formation neo-epitopes PRO-C3 and PRO-C4 and the turnover ratio of type IV collagen (PRO-C4:C4M) were higher in skin progressors. The turnover ratio of type IV collagen and PRO-C3 significantly predicted skin progression in a multivariable model adjusted for modified Rodnan skin score, sex, and age. INTERPRETATION: These data suggest that neo-epitopes of type III and IV collagens are promising biomarkers for the assessment and prediction of extracellular matrix remodelling in systemic sclerosis. They could be used in clinical practice to risk stratify patients at risk of progression of fibrosis. FUNDING: None.

Randomised controlled trials in systemic sclerosis: patient selection and endpoints for next generation trials.

The heterogeneity in the natural history of systemic sclerosis is a major issue in both clinical management and trial design and is dictated by the complex and multifactorial pathogenesis of the disease. Systemic sclerosis is an autoimmune disease and therefore many trials for the disease have targeted immune activation pathways; however, the phase 3 trials that have been positive have targeted pathways directly linked to tissue damage rather than systemic immune activation. On one hand, these results represent enormous progress that has led to the first approved drugs for this extremely challenging condition. On the other hand, they have revealed a possible selection bias in our current approach to trial design. In this Series paper, we describe randomised controlled trials from the past 4 years we believe to be most relevant to future strategies in systemic sclerosis. Based on advances in our understanding of the pathogenesis and natural history of disease, we will also identify important points to consider in the design of the next generation of systemic sclerosis trials.

Digital ulcers: should debridement be a standard of care in systemic sclerosis?

Digital ulcers are a serious, recurrent complication in patients with systemic sclerosis. They are often slow to heal and exquisitely painful. Local wound care, such as debridement of the wound bed, is an essential component in the management of digital ulcers in systemic sclerosis. However, digital ulcer debridement is not a standard of care, and there is substantial international variation in the use of this approach. In this Viewpoint, we discuss the assessment of the wound bed and different methods of debridement using the model of tissue management, infection and inflammation, moisture control, and wound edge or epidermal advancement, known as TIME. We highlight the challenges in standard practice and the need for research into local wound care for this type of ulceration, before suggesting a potential roadmap to develop a standardised approach to support ulcer debridement in systemic sclerosis. Debridement might be the missing component in optimising the management of digital ulcers and we propose that the approach should be rigorously investigated as a standard of care in this common complication of systemic sclerosis.