Text Messages With Financial Incentives for Men With Obesity: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Effective weight loss interventions are needed for men with obesity. Objective: To determine whether an intervention that combined text messaging with financial incentives attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group and whether an intervention of text messaging alone attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group. Design, Setting, and Participants: An assessor-blinded randomized clinical trial conducted in Belfast, Bristol, and Glasgow areas in the UK. A total of 585 men with body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more were enrolled between July 2021 and May 2022. Final follow-up occurred June 2023. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to 12 months of behavioral focused text messages combined with financial incentives (n = 196), 12 months of behavioral focused text messages alone (n= 194), or a waiting list (control group; n= 195). The financial incentive consisted of a monetary reward that was lost if weight loss targets were not met. All participants received weight management information and a pedometer at baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: The 2 primary comparisons were the 12-month comparison of within-participant weight change between the text messaging with financial incentive group and the control group and the comparison between the text messaging alone group and the control group (minimum clinically important difference, 3%). The P value defined for statistical significance was P < .025 for each comparison. Results: Of the 585 men (mean [SD] age, 50.7 [13.3] years; mean weight, 118.5 [19.9] kg; mean BMI, 37.7 [5.7]; 525 [90%] White), 227 (39%) lived in postal code areas with lower socioeconomic status, and 426 (73%) completed the 12-month follow-up. At the 12-month follow-up, compared with the control group, the mean percent weight change was significantly greater in the text messaging with financial incentive group (mean difference, -3.2%; 97.5% CI, -4.6% to -1.9%; P < .001) but was not significantly greater in the text messaging alone group (mean difference, -1.4%; 97.5% CI, -2.9% to 0.0, P = .05). The mean (SD) weight changes were -5.7 (7.4) kg for the text messaging with financial incentives group, -3.0 (7.5) kg for the text messaging alone group, and -1.5 (6.6) kg for the control group. The 12-month mean (SD) percentage weight changes from baseline were -4.8% (6.1%) for the text messaging with financial incentives group, -2.7% (6.3%) for text messaging alone group, and -1.3% (5.5%) for the control group. Of 366 adverse events reported, the most common were infections (83 [23%]). Of the 23 serious adverse events (6.3%), 12 (52%) occurred in the text messaging with financial incentives group, 5 (22%) in the texts messaging alone group, and 6 (26%) in the control group. None were considered related to participating in a trial group. Conclusion and Relevance: Among men with obesity, an intervention with text messaging with financial incentive significantly improved weight loss compared with a control group, whereas text messaging alone was not significantly better than the control condition. These findings support text messaging combined with financial incentives to attain weight loss in men with obesity. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN91974895.

Prevalence of biochemical osteomalacia in adults undergoing vitamin D testing.

OBJECTIVE: Prolonged severe vitamin D deficiency can cause osteomalacia, but the 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) concentration below which this occurs is unknown. We investigated the prevalence of biochemical osteomalacia in adults with a measurement of 25OHD. DESIGN, MEASUREMENT, AND PATIENTS: 25OHD results between 1/1/2009 and 15/6/2020 were obtained from the regional laboratory database, together with measurements of serum calcium, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) within 6 months of the index 25OHD. We defined biochemical osteomalacia as all 3 of: albumin-adjusted serum calcium (aCa)<2.0 mmol/L, PTH>7.3 pmol/L and ALP>150 IU/L. Possible osteomalacia was 2/3 criteria with the other test not done. 25OHD measurements associated with significant renal impairment, elevated hepatic transaminases or hypercalcaemia were excluded. RESULTS: 110,046 25OHD measurements were identified over the 11.5 years period. After removal of ineligible measurements, 42,171 25OHD measurements from 32,386 individuals with at least 2 of aCa, PTH and ALP were included in analyses. Median 25OHD was 63 nmol/L; 8% were <25 nmol/L, and 33% were <50 nmol/L. Five index 25OHD measurements met the definition of biochemical osteomalacia, and another 11 were possible osteomalacia. After reviewing available clinical records for these 16 episodes, we classified 9 cases as osteomalacia and 7 as other diagnoses. Thus, the prevalence of biochemical osteomalacia was 0.02% (9/42,171) for 25OHD measurements and 0.23% (8/3432) for 25OHD<25 nmol/L. All cases of osteomalacia with 25OHD measurements prior to supplementation had 25OHD≤18 nmol/L. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of biochemical osteomalacia is very low, even in individuals with 25OHD<25 nmol/L.

Assessing and Raising Concerns About Duplicate Publication, Authorship Transgressions and Data Errors in a Body of Preclinical Research.

Authorship transgressions, duplicate data reporting and reporting/data errors compromise the integrity of biomedical publications. Using a standardized template, we raised concerns with journals about each of these characteristics in 33 pairs of publications originating from 15 preclinical (animal) trials reported by a group of researchers. The outcomes of interest were journal responses, including time to acknowledgement of concerns, time to decision, content of decision letter, and disposition of publications at 1 year. Authorship transgressions affected 27/36 (75%) publications. The median proportion of duplicate data within pairs of publications was 45% (interquartile range 29-57). Data/reporting discrepancies [median 3 (1-5)] were present in 28/33 (85%) pairs. Journals acknowledged receipt of concerns for 53% and 94% of publications by 1 month and 9 months, respectively. After 1 year, journals had communicated decisions for 16/36 (44%) publications. None of the decision letters specifically addressed each of the concerns raised. Decisions were no action, correction and retraction for 9, 3 and 4 publications, respectively: the amounts of duplicate data reporting and data/reporting discrepancies were similar irrespective of journal decision. Authorship transgressions affected 6/9 (67%) publications for which no action was decided. Journal responses to concerns about duplicate publication, authorship transgressions, and data/reporting discrepancies were slow, opaque and inconsistent.

Assessment of research waste part 1: an exemplar from examining study design, surrogate and clinical endpoints in studies of calcium intake and vitamin D supplementation.

BACKGROUND: Research waste is estimated to be very common, but assessments of its prevalence and scope are rare. As an example, we assessed research waste in clinical research on calcium intake (assessing study design and endpoint type) and vitamin D supplementation (assessing endpoint type). METHODS: We examined 404 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies of calcium intake (diet or supplements) and bone mineral density (BMD) or fracture, and 547 RCTs of vitamin D supplements, and assessed the proportion of studies that used surrogate or clinical endpoints. For studies with BMD or fracture as an endpoint, we estimated when the 'tipping' point occurred indicating the need for RCTs with fracture as an endpoint (based on cumulative meta-analyses of BMD RCTs, and chronological review of observational studies), and whether each study published at least 5y after the tipping point was novel, added new clinical knowledge or was research waste. RESULTS: Observational studies of calcium intake and BMD or fracture outnumbered RCTs by 3.3-4.5 times. For both calcium intake and vitamin D supplements, studies using surrogate endpoints outnumbered studies using clinical endpoints by 1.6-3 times. Of 41 RCT publications of calcium intake and BMD or fracture published at least 5y after the tipping point in 1994, we considered that 19 (46%) lacked novelty, another 13 (32%) added no new clinical knowledge, and 30 (73%) were research waste. Of 204 observational study publications of calcium intake and BMD or fracture, 197 (96%) lacked novelty, another 5 (2%) added no new clinical knowledge, and 202 (99%) were research waste. Of 39 RCTs of vitamin D supplementation and BMD or fracture published at least 5y after the tipping point in 1999, 14 (36%) lacked novelty, another 13 (33%) added no new clinical knowledge, and 27 (69%) were research waste. CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of studies of calcium intake since 2000 (95%) and trials of vitamin D supplements since 2005 (69%) on BMD or fracture represent research waste.

Assessment of research waste part 2: wrong study populations- an exemplar of baseline vitamin D status of participants in trials of vitamin D supplementation.

BACKGROUND: Research waste can occur when trials are conducted in the wrong populations. Vitamin D deficient populations are most likely to benefit from vitamin D supplementation. We investigated waste attributable to randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of supplementation in populations that were not vitamin D deficient. METHODS: In December 2015, we searched Pubmed, recent systematic reviews, and three trial registries for RCTs of vitamin D with clinical endpoints in adults, and 25-hydroxvitamin D (25OHD) survey data relevant to large (N ≥ 1000) RCTs. We investigated the proportion of RCTs that studied vitamin D deficient populations, temporal trends in baseline 25OHD, and whether investigators in large RCTs considered relevant 25OHD survey data or systematic reviews in their trial justifications. RESULTS: Of 137 RCTs of vitamin D with clinical endpoints, 118 (86%) reported baseline mean/median 25OHD, which was < 25, 25-49, 50-74, and ≥ 75 nmol/L in 12 (10%), 62 (53%), 36 (31%), and 8 (7%) RCTs, respectively. In 70% of RCTs, baseline 25OHD was > 40 nmol/L. Baseline 25OHD increased over time. Before 2006, 38%, 62%, 0% and 0% of RCTs had baseline 25OHD < 25, 25-49, 50-74, and ≥ 75 nmol/L respectively; in 2011-15, the respective proportions were 9%, 49%, 37%, and 6%. Of 12 RCTs with baseline 25OHD < 25 nmol/L, 8 had neutral findings. Of 25 large RCTs (18 completed, 7 ongoing), 1 was undertaken in a vitamin D deficient population, 3 in vitamin D insufficient populations, and 17 had, or probably will have, baseline 25OHD > 40 nmol/L. 44% (8/18) of large completed RCTs cited relevant prior population 25OHD data, and only 3/10 (30%) relevant prior systematic reviews. CONCLUSIONS: Up to 70% of RCTs of vitamin D with clinical endpoints, 71% of large completed RCTs, and 100% of ongoing large RCTs could be considered research waste because they studied cohorts that were not vitamin D deficient.

A mixed-methods evaluation of a community pharmacy signposting service to a commercial weight-loss provider.

OBJECTIVE: Community pharmacies could provide access for clients to commercial weight management organizations. We evaluated recruitment, referral and outcomes of adults provided with free vouchers by community pharmacies to attend Scottish Slimmers classes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort design with qualitative interviews with clients and pharmacy personnel. Scottish Slimmers collected weight and attendance data. SETTING: Pharmacies in Aberdeen City, Scotland. SUBJECTS: Clients aged ≥18 years with BMI≥30 kg/m2. RESULTS: Ten of twenty-three pharmacies were recruited; eight successfully recruited clients. Of 129 clients recruited, ninety-seven (75 %) attended at least one class and fifty-one (40 %) attended all twelve classes. At baseline, clients' mean weight was 99·4 (sd 17·5) kg, mean BMI was 37·8 (sd 6·0) kg/m2. After 12 weeks, mean weight change was -3·7 % (last observation carried forward) or -2·8 % (baseline observation carried forward) for all ninety-seven clients. Client interviews indicated that many individuals would have not addressed their weight problems if this referral service had not been available. They had positive attitudes towards the pharmacy signposting service, attributed to the use of consultation rooms for privacy, receiving professional service from personnel and ongoing support and encouragement. The free provision of 12-week access facilitated participation. Service providers had positive attitudes and indicated their willingness to provide this service in future. CONCLUSIONS: Community pharmacies could be used to increase access to weight management services, with pharmacy personnel providing additional support to clients. Future provision of pharmacy referral schemes should be evaluated on a larger scale with an economic evaluation.

New debate: is it time for infertility weight-loss programmes to be couple-based?

With obesity on the rise in the general population, it has also become more prevalent among people of reproductive age. Weight loss has shown benefits in overweight women and men experiencing fertility problems. However, the existing weight-loss interventions for individuals with infertility are associated with high drop-out rates and limited success. In this article, we argue for the development of weight-loss programmes targeting couples, as couples are routinely seen in fertility clinics, rather than individuals. Couples may have correlated weights, and similar eating and activity patterns. Involving both partners may facilitate mutual support, behaviour change, weight loss and programme continuation, at very little additional cost. A successful couple-based intervention could improve the chances of achieving pregnancy and delivering a healthy baby, with a reduction in pregnancy complications. In the longer run, both partners and their baby could benefit from maintained behaviour change with better health across the lifespan. We conclude that there is a need for research to systematically develop a couple-based weight-loss intervention with state-of-the-art design that is tailored to both partners' needs.

Nutritional supplementation for hip fracture aftercare in older people.

BACKGROUND: Older people with hip fractures are often malnourished at the time of fracture, and subsequently have poor food intake. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2000, and previously updated in 2010. OBJECTIVES: To review the effects (benefits and harms) of nutritional interventions in older people recovering from hip fracture. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Embase, CAB Abstracts, CINAHL, trial registers and reference lists. The search was last run in November 2015. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials of nutritional interventions for people aged over 65 years with hip fracture where the interventions were started within the first month after hip fracture. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected trials, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Where possible, we pooled data for primary outcomes which were: all cause mortality; morbidity; postoperative complications (e.g. wound infections, pressure sores, deep venous thromboses, respiratory and urinary infections, cardiovascular events); and 'unfavourable outcome' defined as the number of trial participants who died plus the number of survivors with complications. We also pooled data for adverse events such as diarrhoea. MAIN RESULTS: We included 41 trials involving 3881 participants. Outcome data were limited and risk of bias assessment showed that trials were often methodologically flawed, with less than half of trials at low risk of bias for allocation concealment, incomplete outcome data, or selective reporting of outcomes. The available evidence was judged of either low or very low quality indicating that we were uncertain or very uncertain about the estimates.Eighteen trials evaluated oral multinutrient feeds that provided non-protein energy, protein, vitamins and minerals. There was low-quality evidence that oral feeds had little effect on mortality (24/486 versus 31/481; risk ratio (RR) 0.81 favouring supplementation, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49 to 1.32; 15 trials). Thirteen trials evaluated the effect of oral multinutrient feeds on complications (e.g. pressure sore, infection, venous thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, confusion). There was low-quality evidence that the number of participants with complications may be reduced with oral multinutrient feeds (123/370 versus 157/367; RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.86; 11 trials). Based on very low-quality evidence from six studies (334 participants), oral supplements may result in lower numbers with 'unfavourable outcome' (death or complications): RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.89. There was very low-quality evidence for six studies (442 participants) that oral supplementation did not result in an increased incidence of vomiting and diarrhoea (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.47 to 2.05).Only very low-quality evidence was available from the four trials examining nasogastric multinutrient feeding. Pooled data from three heterogeneous trials showed no evidence of an effect of supplementation on mortality (14/142 versus 14/138; RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.97). One trial (18 participants) found no difference in complications. None reported on unfavourable outcome. Nasogastric feeding was poorly tolerated. One study reported no cases of aspiration pneumonia.There is very low-quality evidence from one trial (57 participants, mainly men) of no evidence for an effect of tube feeding followed by oral supplementation on mortality or complications. Tube feeding, however, was poorly tolerated.There is very low-quality evidence from one trial (80 participants) that a combination of intravenous feeding and oral supplements may not affect mortality but could reduce complications. However, this expensive intervention is usually reserved for people with non-functioning gastrointestinal tracts, which is unlikely in this trial.Four trials tested increasing protein intake in an oral feed. These provided low-quality evidence for no clear effect of increased protein intake on mortality (30/181 versus 21/180; RR 1.42, 95% CI 0.85 to 2.37; 4 trials) or number of participants with complications but very low-quality and contradictory evidence of a reduction in unfavourable outcomes (66/113 versus 82/110; RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.95; 2 trials). There was no evidence of an effect on adverse events such as diarrhoea.Trials testing intravenous vitamin B1 and other water soluble vitamins, oral 1-alpha-hydroxycholecalciferol (vitamin D), high dose bolus vitamin D, different oral doses or sources of vitamin D, intravenous or oral iron, ornithine alpha-ketoglutarate versus an isonitrogenous peptide supplement, taurine versus placebo, and a supplement with vitamins, minerals and amino acids, provided low- or very low-quality evidence of no clear effect on mortality or complications, where reported.Based on low-quality evidence, one trial evaluating the use of dietetic assistants to help with feeding indicated that this intervention may reduce mortality (19/145 versus 36/157; RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.95) but not the number of participants with complications (79/130 versus 84/125). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is low-quality evidence that oral multinutrient supplements started before or soon after surgery may prevent complications within the first 12 months after hip fracture, but that they have no clear effect on mortality. There is very low-quality evidence that oral supplements may reduce 'unfavourable outcome' (death or complications) and that they do not result in an increased incidence of vomiting and diarrhoea. Adequately sized randomised trials with robust methodology are required. In particular, the role of dietetic assistants, and peripheral venous feeding or nasogastric feeding in very malnourished people require further evaluation.

Systematic review of the clinical and cost effectiveness of cholecystectomy versus observation/conservative management for uncomplicated symptomatic gallstones or cholecystitis.

BACKGROUND: Gallstone disease is a common gastrointestinal disorder in industrialised countries. Although symptoms can be severe, some people can be symptom free for many years after the original attack. Surgery is the current treatment of choice, but evidence suggests that observation is also feasible and safe. We reviewed the evidence on cholecystectomy versus observation for uncomplicated symptomatic gallstones and conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: We searched six electronic databases (last search April 2014). We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or non-randomised comparative studies where adults received either cholecystectomy or observation/conservative management for the first episode of symptomatic gallstone disease (biliary pain or cholecystitis) being considered for surgery in secondary care. Meta-analysis was used to combine results. A de novo Markov model was developed to assess the cost effectiveness of the interventions. RESULTS: Two RCTs (201 participants) were included. Eighty-eight percent of people randomised to surgery and 45 % of people randomised to observation underwent cholecystectomy during the 14-year follow-up period. Participants randomised to observation were significantly more likely to experience gallstone-related complications (RR = 6.69, 95 % CI = 1.57-28.51, p = 0.01), in particular acute cholecystitis (RR = 9.55, 95 % CI = 1.25-73.27, p = 0.03), and less likely to undergo surgery (RR = 0.50, 95 % CI = 0.34-0.73, p = 0.0004) or experience surgery-related complications (RR = 0.36, 95 % CI = 0.16-0.81, p = 0.01) than those randomised to surgery. Fifty-five percent of people randomised to observation did not require surgery, and 12 % of people randomised to cholecystectomy did not undergo surgery. On average, surgery costs £1,236 more per patient than conservative management, but was more effective. CONCLUSIONS: Cholecystectomy is the preferred treatment for symptomatic gallstones. However, approximately half the observation group did not require surgery or suffer complications indicating that it may be a valid alternative to surgery. A multicentre trial is needed to establish the effects, safety and cost effectiveness of observation/conservative management relative to cholecystectomy.

Vitamin D and vitamin D analogues for preventing fractures in post-menopausal women and older men.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D and related compounds have been used to prevent osteoporotic fractures in older people. This is the third update of a Cochrane review first published in 1996. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effects of vitamin D or related compounds, with or without calcium, for preventing fractures in post-menopausal women and older men. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register (to December 2012), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (2012, Issue 12), MEDLINE (1966 to November Week 3 2012), EMBASE (1980 to 2012 Week 50), CINAHL (1982 to December 2012), BIOSIS (1985 to 3 January 2013), Current Controlled Trials (December 2012) and reference lists of articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised or quasi-randomised trials that compared vitamin D or related compounds, alone or with calcium, against placebo, no intervention or calcium alone, and that reported fracture outcomes in older people. The primary outcome was hip fracture. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently assessed trial risk of selection bias and aspects of methodological quality, and extracted data. Data were pooled, where possible, using the fixed-effect model, or the random-effects model when heterogeneity between studies appeared substantial. MAIN RESULTS: We included 53 trials with a total of 91,791 participants. Thirty-one trials, with sample sizes ranging from 70 to 36,282 participants, examined vitamin D (including 25-hydroxy vitamin D) with or without calcium in the prevention of fractures in community, nursing home or hospital inpatient populations. Twelve of these 31 trials had participants with a mean or median age of 80 years or over.Another group of 22 smaller trials examined calcitriol or alfacalcidol (1-alphahydroxyvitamin D3), mostly with participants who had established osteoporosis. These trials were carried out in the setting of institutional referral clinics or hospitals.In the assessment of risk of bias for random sequence generation, 21 trials (40%) were deemed to be at low risk, 28 trials (53%) at unclear risk and four trials at high risk (8%). For allocation concealment, 22 trials were at low risk (42%), 29 trials were at unclear risk (55%) and two trials were at high risk (4%).There is high quality evidence that vitamin D alone, in the formats and doses tested, is unlikely to be effective in preventing hip fracture (11 trials, 27,693 participants; risk ratio (RR) 1.12, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.98 to 1.29) or any new fracture (15 trials, 28,271 participants; RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.11).There is high quality evidence that vitamin D plus calcium results in a small reduction in hip fracture risk (nine trials, 49,853 participants; RR 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74 to 0.96; P value 0.01). In low-risk populations (residents in the community: with an estimated eight hip fractures per 1000 per year), this equates to one fewer hip fracture per 1000 older adults per year (95% CI 0 to 2). In high risk populations (residents in institutions: with an estimated 54 hip fractures per 1000 per year), this equates to nine fewer hip fractures per 1000 older adults per year (95% CI 2 to 14). There is high quality evidence that vitamin D plus calcium is associated with a statistically significant reduction in incidence of new non-vertebral fractures. However, there is only moderate quality evidence of an absence of a statistically significant preventive effect on clinical vertebral fractures. There is high quality evidence that vitamin D plus calcium reduces the risk of any type of fracture (10 trials, 49,976 participants; RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.99).In terms of the results for adverse effects: mortality was not adversely affected by either vitamin D or vitamin D plus calcium supplementation (29 trials, 71,032 participants, RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.01). Hypercalcaemia, which was usually mild (2.6 to 2.8 mmol/L), was more common in people receiving vitamin D or an analogue, with or without calcium (21 trials, 17,124 participants, RR 2.28, 95% CI 1.57 to 3.31), especially for calcitriol (four trials, 988 participants, RR 4.41, 95% CI 2.14 to 9.09), than in people receiving placebo or control. There was also a small increased risk of gastrointestinal symptoms (15 trials, 47,761 participants, RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.08), especially for calcium plus vitamin D (four trials, 40,524 participants, RR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09), and a significant increase in renal disease (11 trials, 46,548 participants, RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.33). Other systematic reviews have found an increased association of myocardial infarction with supplemental calcium; and evidence of increased myocardial infarction and stroke, but decreased cancer, with supplemental calcium plus vitamin D, without an overall effect on mortality. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D alone is unlikely to prevent fractures in the doses and formulations tested so far in older people. Supplements of vitamin D and calcium may prevent hip or any type of fracture. There was a small but significant increase in gastrointestinal symptoms and renal disease associated with vitamin D and calcium. This review found that there was no increased risk of death from taking calcium and vitamin D.

Statistical techniques to assess publication integrity in groups of randomized trials: a narrative review.

OBJECTIVES: To describe statistical tools available for assessing publication integrity of groups of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Narrative review. RESULTS: Freely available statistical tools have been developed that compare the observed distributions of baseline variables with the expected distributions that would occur if successful randomization occurred. For continuous variables, the tools assess baseline means, baseline P values, and the occurrence of identical means and/or standard deviation. For categorical variables, they assess baseline P values, frequency counts for individual or all variables, numbers of trial participants randomized or withdrawing, and compare reported with independently calculated P values. The tools have been used to identify publication integrity concerns in RCTs from individual groups, and performed at an acceptable level in discriminating intentionally fabricated baseline summary data from genuine RCTs. The tools can be used when concerns have been raised about RCT(s) from an individual/group and when the whole body of their work is being examined, when conducting systematic reviews, and could be adapted to aid screening of RCTs at journal submission. CONCLUSION: Statistical tools are useful for the assessment of publication integrity of groups of RCTs.

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy versus conservative management for adults with uncomplicated symptomatic gallstones: the C-GALL RCT.

Background: Gallstone disease is a common gastrointestinal disorder in industrialised societies. The prevalence of gallstones in the adult population is estimated to be approximately 10-15%, and around 80% remain asymptomatic. At present, cholecystectomy is the default option for people with symptomatic gallstone disease. Objectives: To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of observation/conservative management compared with laparoscopic cholecystectomy for preventing recurrent symptoms and complications in adults presenting with uncomplicated symptomatic gallstones in secondary care. Design: Parallel group, multicentre patient randomised superiority pragmatic trial with up to 24 months follow-up and embedded qualitative research. Within-trial cost-utility and 10-year Markov model analyses. Development of a core outcome set for uncomplicated symptomatic gallstone disease. Setting: Secondary care elective settings. Participants: Adults with symptomatic uncomplicated gallstone disease referred to a secondary care setting were considered for inclusion. Interventions: Participants were randomised 1: 1 at clinic to receive either laparoscopic cholecystectomy or observation/conservative management. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was quality of life measured by area under the curve over 18 months using the Short Form-36 bodily pain domain. Secondary outcomes included the Otago gallstones' condition-specific questionnaire, Short Form-36 domains (excluding bodily pain), area under the curve over 24 months for Short Form-36 bodily pain domain, persistent symptoms, complications and need for further treatment. No outcomes were blinded to allocation. Results: Between August 2016 and November 2019, 434 participants were randomised (217 in each group) from 20 United Kingdom centres. By 24 months, 64 (29.5%) in the observation/conservative management group and 153 (70.5%) in the laparoscopic cholecystectomy group had received surgery, median time to surgery of 9.0 months (interquartile range, 5.6-15.0) and 4.7 months (interquartile range 2.6-7.9), respectively. At 18 months, the mean Short Form-36 norm-based bodily pain score was 49.4 (standard deviation 11.7) in the observation/conservative management group and 50.4 (standard deviation 11.6) in the laparoscopic cholecystectomy group. The mean area under the curve over 18 months was 46.8 for both groups with no difference: mean difference -0.0, 95% confidence interval (-1.7 to 1.7); p-value 0.996; n = 203 observation/conservative, n = 205 cholecystectomy. There was no evidence of differences in quality of life, complications or need for further treatment at up to 24 months follow-up. Condition-specific quality of life at 24 months favoured cholecystectomy: mean difference 9.0, 95% confidence interval (4.1 to 14.0), p < 0.001 with a similar pattern for the persistent symptoms score. Within-trial cost-utility analysis found observation/conservative management over 24 months was less costly than cholecystectomy (mean difference -£1033). A non-significant quality-adjusted life-year difference of -0.019 favouring cholecystectomy resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £55,235. The Markov model continued to favour observation/conservative management, but some scenarios reversed the findings due to uncertainties in longer-term quality of life. The core outcome set included 11 critically important outcomes from both patients and healthcare professionals. Conclusions: The results suggested that in the short term (up to 24 months) observation/conservative management may be a cost-effective use of National Health Service resources in selected patients, but subsequent surgeries in the randomised groups and differences in quality of life beyond 24 months could reverse this finding. Future research should focus on longer-term follow-up data and identification of the cohort of patients that should be routinely offered surgery. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN55215960. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 14/192/71) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 26. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

The C-GALL study assessed the benefits, in terms of symptoms, quality of life and costs, of cholecystectomy versus observation (conservative management: by the patient and general practitioner that might include dietary advice and pain management and surgery if needed). Four hundred and thirty-four patients with symptomatic gallstones were randomly allocated surgery or conservative management. The main symptom of ongoing bodily pain and some other quality-of-life measures were assessed over the next 2 years using postal questionnaires. After 2 years, 70% of those allocated to surgery had been operated on and 37% of the observation group either had an operation or were waiting for one. There was no difference in bodily pain or overall quality of life between the groups. However, participants in the surgery group reported fewer ongoing problems related to their gallstone disease or after surgery than those in the conservative management group. Surgery was, however, more costly than conservative management. The C-GALL study has shown that for some patients, a conservative management approach may be a sufficient and less costly way of managing their gallstone symptoms rather than going straight on the waiting list for surgery. More research is needed to identify which patients benefit most from surgery.

Protocol for the development of a tool (INSPECT-SR) to identify problematic randomised controlled trials in systematic reviews of health interventions.

INTRODUCTION: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) inform healthcare decisions. It is now apparent that some published RCTs contain false data and some appear to have been entirely fabricated. Systematic reviews are performed to identify and synthesise all RCTs that have been conducted on a given topic. While it is usual to assess methodological features of the RCTs in the process of undertaking a systematic review, it is not usual to consider whether the RCTs contain false data. Studies containing false data therefore go unnoticed and contribute to systematic review conclusions. The INveStigating ProblEmatic Clinical Trials in Systematic Reviews (INSPECT-SR) project will develop a tool to assess the trustworthiness of RCTs in systematic reviews of healthcare-related interventions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The INSPECT-SR tool will be developed using expert consensus in combination with empirical evidence, over five stages: (1) a survey of experts to assemble a comprehensive list of checks for detecting problematic RCTs, (2) an evaluation of the feasibility and impact of applying the checks to systematic reviews, (3) a Delphi survey to determine which of the checks are supported by expert consensus, culminating in, (4) a consensus meeting to select checks to be included in a draft tool and to determine its format and (5) prospective testing of the draft tool in the production of new health systematic reviews, to allow refinement based on user feedback. We anticipate that the INSPECT-SR tool will help researchers to identify problematic studies and will help patients by protecting them from the influence of false data on their healthcare. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The University of Manchester ethics decision tool was used, and this returned the result that ethical approval was not required for this project (30 September 2022), which incorporates secondary research and surveys of professionals about subjects relating to their expertise. Informed consent will be obtained from all survey participants. All results will be published as open-access articles. The final tool will be made freely available.

A survey of experts to identify methods to detect problematic studies: Stage 1 of the INSPECT-SR Project.

Background: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) inform healthcare decisions. Unfortunately, some published RCTs contain false data, and some appear to have been entirely fabricated. Systematic reviews are performed to identify and synthesise all RCTs which have been conducted on a given topic. This means that any of these 'problematic studies' are likely to be included, but there are no agreed methods for identifying them. The INSPECT-SR project is developing a tool to identify problematic RCTs in systematic reviews of healthcare-related interventions. The tool will guide the user through a series of 'checks' to determine a study's authenticity. The first objective in the development process is to assemble a comprehensive list of checks to consider for inclusion. Methods: We assembled an initial list of checks for assessing the authenticity of research studies, with no restriction to RCTs, and categorised these into five domains: Inspecting results in the paper; Inspecting the research team; Inspecting conduct, governance, and transparency; Inspecting text and publication details; Inspecting the individual participant data. We implemented this list as an online survey, and invited people with expertise and experience of assessing potentially problematic studies to participate through professional networks and online forums. Participants were invited to provide feedback on the checks on the list, and were asked to describe any additional checks they knew of, which were not featured in the list. Results: Extensive feedback on an initial list of 102 checks was provided by 71 participants based in 16 countries across five continents. Fourteen new checks were proposed across the five domains, and suggestions were made to reword checks on the initial list. An updated list of checks was constructed, comprising 116 checks. Many participants expressed a lack of familiarity with statistical checks, and emphasized the importance of feasibility of the tool. Conclusions: A comprehensive list of trustworthiness checks has been produced. The checks will be evaluated to determine which should be included in the INSPECT-SR tool.

The role of ω-3 fatty acid supplemented parenteral nutrition in critical illness in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the supplementation of parenteral nutrition with ω-3 fatty acids confers treatment benefits to critically ill adult patients. DATA SOURCE: We performed computerized searches for relevant articles from 1996 to June 2011 on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane register of controlled trials and abstracts of scientific meetings from 2005 to 2011. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized controlled trials of ω-3 fatty acid supplemented parenteral nutrition in critically ill adult patients admitted to the intensive therapy unit, given in addition to their routine care, compared with parenteral nutrition without ω-3 fatty acid supplementation. DATA SYNTHESIS: Five fully published trials and three trials published in abstract form with 391 participants have been included. Overall trial quality was poor. Mortality data were pooled from eight studies with 391 participants. No differences were found with a risk ratio for death of 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.57, 1.20; p = 0.32). Data for infectious complications were available from five studies with 337 participants. No differences were found, with a risk ratio for infection of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.43, 1.41; p = 0.41). Data for intensive therapy unit and hospital length of stay were available from six and three studies with 305 and 117 participants, respectively. With respect to intensive therapy unit length of stay, no differences were observed with a mean difference of 0.57 days in favor of the ω-3 fatty acid group (95% confidence interval -5.05, 3.90; p = 0.80). A significant reduction in hospital length of stay of 9.49 days (95% confidence interval -16.51, -2.47; p = 0.008) was observed for those receiving ω-3 fatty acid supplemented parenteral nutrition, but results were strongly influenced by one small study. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of this systematic review, it can be concluded that ω-3 fatty acid supplementation of parenteral nutrition does not improve mortality, infectious complications, and intensive therapy unit length of stay in comparison with standard parenteral nutrition. Although ω-3 fatty acids appear to reduce hospital length of stay, the poor methodology of the included studies and the absence of other outcome improvements mean they cannot be presently recommended.

Calcium supplements and cancer risk: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

Some evidence suggests that Ca and vitamin D supplements affect cancer risk; however, it is uncertain whether the effects are due to Ca, vitamin D or the combination. We investigated the effect of Ca supplements without co-administered vitamin D on cancer risk. Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, reference lists of meta-analyses and two clinical trial registries were searched for randomised, placebo-controlled trials of Ca supplements ( ≥ 500 mg/d), with ≥ 100 participants and duration >1 year. The lead authors of eligible trials supplied data on cancer outcomes. Trial-level data were analysed using random-effects meta-analyses and patient-level data using Cox proportional hazards models. A total of sixteen trials were eligible, six had no data available, ten provided trial-level data (n 10,496, mean duration 3·9 years), and of these, four provided patient-level data (n 7221, median duration 3·5 years). In the meta-analysis of trial-level data, allocation to Ca did not alter the risk of total cancer (relative risk 0·95, 95% CI 0·76, 1·18, P= 0·63), colorectal cancer (relative risk 1·38, 95% CI 0·89, 2·15, P= 0·15), breast cancer (relative risk 1·01, 95% CI 0·64, 1·59, P= 0·97) or cancer-related mortality (relative risk 0·96, 95% CI 0·74, 1·24, P= 0·75), but reduced the risk of prostate cancer (relative risk 0·54, 95 % CI 0·30, 0·96, P= 0·03), although there were few events. The meta-analysis of patient-level data showed similar results, with no effect of Ca on the risk of total cancer (hazard ratio 1·07, 95% CI 0·89, 1·28, P= 0·50). Ca supplements without co-administered vitamin D did not alter total cancer risk over 4 years, although the meta-analysis lacked power to detect very small effects, or those with a longer latency.

Responses to concerns raised about publications don't address the concerns raised.

Recently in the Journal, Amanda Williams described her experience of raising concerns about a group of trials with "untrustworthy data". We were inspired by the work of Williams and colleagues to examine these and other trials by the same research group. Similar to Williams, we found that the patterns of reported data differed from the patterns expected to arise from valid randomisation. We also identified a high proportion of reported baseline p-values for categorial variables that differed from independently calculated p-values. We reported these findings to the affected journals but none of the concerns were addressed and no action will be taken about the majority. Despite the large number of unresolved concerns about these trials, readers will be unaware of the issues, which seems entirely unsatisfactory.