Longitudinal assessment in COPD patients: multidimensional variability and outcomes.

The value and timing of multidimensional assessments in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains unclear because there is little information about their variability and relationship to outcome. The aim of this study was to determine the progression of COPD using clinical and spirometric variability over time with mortality as the outcome. We determined the annual intra-individual variability of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity) index in 403 patients with at least five measurements. The pattern was defined as "stable" if the annual change remained constant in ≥66% of the observations and "unstable" if it did not meet that threshold. We explored the minimum number of yearly observations that related to mortality in the 704 patients of the cohort. The "unstable" pattern of FEV1 was seen in 53% and 40% of patients using a threshold of 40 mL·year(-1) and 100 mL·year(-1), respectively. There was a slightly more "stable" pattern in the BODE index (62% for 1 point). A profile associated with mortality was defined by a baseline measurement followed by annual measurements for 2 years of the BODE index, but not its individual components, including FEV1 (p<0.001). Progression of COPD measured using FEV1 is inconsistent and relates poorly to outcome. Monitoring the more stable BODE index better assesses disease progression.

A risk tertiles model for predicting mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: age, plateau pressure, and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset can predict mortality.

BACKGROUND: Predicting mortality has become a necessary step for selecting patients for clinical trials and defining outcomes. We examined whether stratification by tertiles of respiratory and ventilatory variables at the onset of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) identifies patients with different risks of death in the intensive care unit. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of data from 220 patients included in 2 multicenter prospective independent trials of ARDS patients mechanically ventilated with a lung-protective strategy. Using demographic, pulmonary, and ventilation data collected at ARDS onset, we derived and validated a simple prediction model based on a population-based stratification of variable values into low, middle, and high tertiles. The derivation cohort included 170 patients (all from one trial) and the validation cohort included 50 patients (all from a second trial). RESULTS: Tertile distribution for age, plateau airway pressure (P(plat)), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset identified subgroups with different mortalities, particularly for the highest-risk tertiles: age (> 62 years), P(plat) (> 29 cm H(2)O), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) (< 112 mm Hg). Risk was defined by the number of coexisting high-risk tertiles: patients with no high-risk tertiles had a mortality of 12%, whereas patients with 3 high-risk tertiles had 90% mortality (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: A prediction model based on tertiles of patient age, P(plat), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at the time the patient meets ARDS criteria identifies patients with the lowest and highest risk of intensive care unit death.

North African influences and potential bias in case-control association studies in the Spanish population.

BACKGROUND: Despite the limited genetic heterogeneity of Spanish populations, substantial evidences support that historical African influences have not affected them uniformly. Accounting for such population differences might be essential to reduce spurious results in association studies of genetic factors with disease. Using ancestry informative markers (AIMs), we aimed to measure the African influences in Spanish populations and to explore whether these might introduce statistical bias in population-based association studies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We genotyped 93 AIMs in Spanish (from the Canary Islands and the Iberian Peninsula) and Northwest Africans, and conducted population and individual-based clustering analyses along with reference data from the HapMap, HGDP-CEPH, and other sources. We found significant differences for the Northwest African influence among Spanish populations from as low as ≈ 5% in Spanish from the Iberian Peninsula to as much as ≈ 17% in Canary Islanders, whereas the sub-Saharan African influence was negligible. Strikingly, the Northwest African ancestry showed a wide inter-individual variation in Canary Islanders ranging from 0% to 96%, reflecting the violent way the Islands were conquered and colonized by the Spanish in the XV century. As a consequence, a comparison of allele frequencies between Spanish samples from the Iberian Peninsula and the Canary Islands evidenced an excess of markers with significant differences. However, the inflation of p-values for the differences was adequately controlled by correcting for genetic ancestry estimates derived from a reduced number of AIMs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although the African influences estimated might be biased due to marker ascertainment, these results confirm that Northwest African genetic footprints are recognizable nowadays in the Spanish populations, particularly in Canary Islanders, and that the uneven African influences existing in these populations might increase the risk for false positives in association studies. Adjusting for population stratification assessed with a few dozen AIMs would be sufficient to control this effect.

The ALIEN study: incidence and outcome of acute respiratory distress syndrome in the era of lung protective ventilation.

PURPOSE: While our understanding of the pathogenesis and management of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) has improved over the past decade, estimates of its incidence have been controversial. The goal of this study was to examine ARDS incidence and outcome under current lung protective ventilatory support practices before and after the diagnosis of ARDS. METHODS: This was a 1-year prospective, multicenter, observational study in 13 geographical areas of Spain (serving a population of 3.55 million at least 18 years of age) between November 2008 and October 2009. Subjects comprised all consecutive patients meeting American-European Consensus Criteria for ARDS. Data on ventilatory management, gas exchange, hemodynamics, and organ dysfunction were collected. RESULTS: A total of 255 mechanically ventilated patients fulfilled the ARDS definition, representing an incidence of 7.2/100,000 population/year. Pneumonia and sepsis were the most common causes of ARDS. At the time of meeting ARDS criteria, mean PaO(2)/FiO(2) was 114 ± 40 mmHg, mean tidal volume was 7.2 ± 1.1 ml/kg predicted body weight, mean plateau pressure was 26 ± 5 cmH(2)O, and mean positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) was 9.3 ± 2.4 cmH(2)O. Overall ARDS intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital mortality was 42.7% (95%CI 37.7-47.8) and 47.8% (95%CI 42.8-53.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to prospectively estimate the ARDS incidence during the routine application of lung protective ventilation. Our findings support previous estimates in Europe and are an order of magnitude lower than those reported in the USA and Australia. Despite use of lung protective ventilation, overall ICU and hospital mortality of ARDS patients is still higher than 40%.

Serum lipopolysaccharide binding protein levels predict severity of lung injury and mortality in patients with severe sepsis.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for biomarkers insuring identification of septic patients at high-risk for death. We performed a prospective, multicenter, observational study to investigate the time-course of lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP) serum levels in patients with severe sepsis and examined whether serial serum levels of LBP could be used as a marker of outcome. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: LBP serum levels at study entry, at 48 hours and at day-7 were measured in 180 patients with severe sepsis. Data regarding the nature of infections, disease severity, development of acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and intensive care unit (ICU) outcome were recorded. LBP serum levels were similar in survivors and non-survivors at study entry (117.4+/-75.7 microg/mL vs. 129.8+/-71.3 microg/mL, P = 0.249) but there were significant differences at 48 hours (77.2+/-57.0 vs. 121.2+/-73.4 microg/mL, P<0.0001) and at day-7 (64.7+/-45.8 vs. 89.7+/-61.1 microg/ml, p = 0.017). At 48 hours, LBP levels were significantly higher in ARDS patients than in ALI patients (112.5+/-71.8 microg/ml vs. 76.6+/-55.9 microg/ml, P = 0.0001). An increase of LBP levels at 48 hours was associated with higher mortality (odds ratio 3.97; 95%CI: 1.84-8.56; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Serial LBP serum measurements may offer a clinically useful biomarker for identification of patients with severe sepsis having the worst outcomes and the highest probability of developing sepsis-induced ARDS.