First implantable cardiac defibrillator insertions in New South Wales, 2005-2020: an analysis of linked administrative data.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the annual numbers of first ICD insertions in New South Wales during 2005-2020; to examine health outcomes for people who first received ICDs during this period. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of linked administrative health data. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: All first insertions of ICDs in NSW, 2005-2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual numbers of first ICD insertions, and of emergency department presentations and hospital re-admissions 30 days, 90 days, 365 days after first ICD insertions; all-cause and disease-specific mortality (to ten years after ICD insertion). RESULTS: During 2005-2020, ICDs were first inserted into 16 867 people (18.5 per 100 000 population); their mean age was 65.7 years (standard deviation, 13.5 years; 7376 aged 70 years or older, 43.7%), 13 214 were men (78.3%). The annual number of insertions increased from 791 in 2005 to 1256 in 2016; the first ICD insertion rate increased from 15.5 in 2005 to 18.9 per 100 000 population in 2010, after which the rate was stable until 2019 (19.8 per 100 000 population). Of the 16 778 people discharged alive from hospital after first ICD insertions, 54.4% presented to emergency departments within twelve months, including 1236 with cardiac arrhythmias (7.4%) and 434 with device-related problems (2.6%); 56% were re-admitted to hospital, including 1944 with cardiac arrhythmias (11.5%) and 2045 with device-related problems (12.1%). A total of 5624 people who received first ICDs during 2005-2020 (33.3%) died during follow-up (6.7 deaths per 100 person-years); the survival rate was 94.4% at one year, 76.5% at five years, and 54.2% at ten years. CONCLUSIONS: The annual number of new ICDs inserted in NSW has increased since 2005. A substantial proportion of recipients experience device-related problems that require re-admission to hospital. The potential harms of ICD insertion should be considered when assessing the likelihood of preventing fatal ventricular arrhythmia.

How should artificial intelligence be used in Australian health care? Recommendations from a citizens' jury.

OBJECTIVE: To support a diverse sample of Australians to make recommendations about the use of artificial intelligence (AI) technology in health care. STUDY DESIGN: Citizens' jury, deliberating the question: "Under which circumstances, if any, should artificial intelligence be used in Australian health systems to detect or diagnose disease?" SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Thirty Australian adults recruited by Sortition Foundation using random invitation and stratified selection to reflect population proportions by gender, age, ancestry, highest level of education, and residential location (state/territory; urban, regional, rural). The jury process took 18 days (16 March - 2 April 2023): fifteen days online and three days face-to-face in Sydney, where the jurors, both in small groups and together, were informed about and discussed the question, and developed recommendations with reasons. Jurors received extensive information: a printed handbook, online documents, and recorded presentations by four expert speakers. Jurors asked questions and received answers from the experts during the online period of the process, and during the first day of the face-to-face meeting. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Jury recommendations, with reasons. RESULTS: The jurors recommended an overarching, independently governed charter and framework for health care AI. The other nine recommendation categories concerned balancing benefits and harms; fairness and bias; patients' rights and choices; clinical governance and training; technical governance and standards; data governance and use; open source software; AI evaluation and assessment; and education and communication. CONCLUSIONS: The deliberative process supported a nationally representative sample of citizens to construct recommendations about how AI in health care should be developed, used, and governed. Recommendations derived using such methods could guide clinicians, policy makers, AI researchers and developers, and health service users to develop approaches that ensure trustworthy and responsible use of this technology.

A summary of the 2023 Society of Obstetric Medicine of Australia and New Zealand (SOMANZ) hypertension in pregnancy guideline.

INTRODUCTION: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) affect up to 10% of all pregnancies annually and are associated with an increased risk of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. This guideline represents an update of the Society of Obstetric Medicine of Australia and New Zealand (SOMANZ) guidelines for the management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy 2014 and has been approved by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) under section 14A of the National Health and Medical Research Council Act 1992. In approving the guideline recommendations, NHMRC considers that the guideline meets NHMRC's standard for clinical practice guidelines. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: A total of 39 recommendations on screening, preventing, diagnosing and managing HDP, especially preeclampsia, are presented in this guideline. Recommendations are presented as either evidence-based recommendations or practice points. Evidence-based recommendations are presented with the strength of recommendation and quality of evidence. Practice points were generated where there was inadequate evidence to develop specific recommendations and are based on the expertise of the working group. CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT RESULTING FROM THE GUIDELINE: This version of the SOMANZ guideline was developed in an academically robust and rigorous manner and includes recommendations on the use of combined first trimester screening to identify women at risk of developing preeclampsia, 14 pharmacological and two non-pharmacological preventive interventions, clinical use of angiogenic biomarkers and the long term care of women who experience HDP. The guideline also includes six multilingual patient infographics which can be accessed through the main website of the guideline. All measures were taken to ensure that this guideline is applicable and relevant to clinicians and multicultural women in regional and metropolitan settings in Australia and New Zealand.

COVID-19 rapid antigen tests approved for self-testing in Australia: published diagnostic test accuracy studies and manufacturer-supplied information. A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To review evaluations of the diagnostic accuracy of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapid antigen tests (RATs) approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) for self-testing by ambulatory people in Australia; to compare these estimates with values reported by test manufacturers. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review of publications in any language that reported cross-sectional, case-control, or cohort studies in which the participants were ambulatory people in the community or health care workers in hospitals in whom severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was suspected, and the results of testing self-collected biological samples with a TGA-approved COVID-19 RAT were compared with those of reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2. Estimates of diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity, specificity) were checked and compared with manufacturer estimates published on the TGA website. DATA SOURCES: Publications (to 1 September 2022) identified in the Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register and the World Health Organization COVID-19 research database. Information on manufacturer diagnostic accuracy evaluations was obtained from the TGA website. DATA SYNTHESIS: Twelve publications that reported a total of eighteen evaluations of eight RATs approved by the TGA for self-testing (manufacturers: All Test, Roche, Flowflex, MP Biomedicals, Clungene, Panbio, V-Chek, Whistling) were identified. Five studies were undertaken in the Netherlands, two each in Germany and the United States, and one each in Denmark, Belgium, and Canada; test sample collection was unsupervised in twelve studies, and supervised by health care workers or researchers in six. Estimated sensitivity with unsupervised sample collection ranged from 20.9% (MP Biomedicals) to 74.3% (Roche), and with supervised collection from 7.7% (V-Chek) to 84.4% (Panbio); the estimates were between 8.2 and 88 percentage points lower than the values reported by the manufacturers. Test specificity was high for all RATs (97.9-100%). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of false negative results when using COVID-19 RATs for self-testing may be considerably higher than apparent in manufacturer reports on the TGA website, with implications for the reliability of these tests for ruling out infection.

Adenotonsillectomy and adenoidectomy in children: The impact of timing of surgery and post-operative outcomes.

AIM: To investigate the impact of adenotonsillectomy (ADT) and adenoidectomy (AD) on child health and evaluated their post-operative complications. METHODS: We included all children aged <16 years undergoing ADT (tonsillectomy ± adenoidectomy) or AD in New South Wales, Australia, 2008-2017. Health information was obtained from administrative hospitalisation data. Rates of post-operative complications and reoperation were evaluated using generalised estimating equations and Kaplan-Meier methods, respectively. RESULTS: Out of 156 500 included children, 112 361 had ADT and 44 139 had AD. Population rates increased during 2008-2017 (ADT: 68-79 per 10 000 children; AD: 25-34 per 10 000), and children were increasingly operated on at a younger age. Overall, 7262 (6.5%) and 1276 (2.9%) children had post-operative complications (mostly haemorrhage), and 4320 (3.8%) and 5394 (12.2%) required reoperation, following ADT and AD, respectively. Complication rates were highest among children aged 0-1 years, lowest for those 2-5 years and increased with age thereafter. Three-year reoperation rates for children aged 0-1 years were 9.0% and 25.9% following ADT and AD, respectively, decreasing thereafter to 0.5% and 2.1% in children aged 12-13 years. CONCLUSIONS: ADT and AD in Australian children have both increased in frequency and are being done at a younger age. Post-operative complications and reoperation rates highlight surgery is not without risk, especially for children under 2 years old. These findings support a more conservative approach to management of upper respiratory symptoms, with surgery reserved for cases where potential benefits are most likely to outweigh harms.

The carbon footprint of pathology testing.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the carbon footprint of five common hospital pathology tests: full blood examination; urea and electrolyte levels; coagulation profile; C-reactive protein concentration; and arterial blood gases. DESIGN, SETTING: Prospective life cycle assessment of five pathology tests in two university-affiliated health services in Melbourne. We included all consumables and associated waste for venepuncture and laboratory analyses, and electricity and water use for laboratory analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Greenhouse gas footprint, measured in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e) emissions. RESULTS: CO2 e emissions for haematology tests were 82 g/test (95% CI, 73-91 g/test) for coagulation profile and 116 g/test (95% CI, 101-135 g/test) for full blood examination. CO2 e emissions for biochemical tests were 0.5 g/test CO2 e (95% CI, 0.4-0.6 g/test) for C-reactive protein (low because typically ordered with urea and electrolyte assessment), 49 g/test (95% CI, 45-53 g/test) for arterial blood gas assessment, and 99 g/test (95% CI, 84-113 g/test) for urea and electrolyte assessment. Most CO2 e emissions were associated with sample collection (range, 60% for full blood examination to 95% for coagulation profile); emissions attributable to laboratory reagents and power use were much smaller. CONCLUSION: The carbon footprint of common pathology tests was dominated by those of sample collection and phlebotomy. Although the carbon footprints were small, millions of tests are performed each year in Australia, and reducing unnecessary testing will be the most effective approach to reducing the carbon footprint of pathology. Together with the detrimental health and economic effects of unnecessary testing, our environmental findings should further motivate clinicians to test wisely.

Estimating the magnitude of cancer overdiagnosis in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the proportion of cancer diagnoses in Australia that might reasonably be attributed to overdiagnosis by comparing current and past lifetime risks of cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Routinely collected Australian Institute of Health and Welfare national data were analysed to estimate recent (2012) and historical (1982) lifetime risks (adjusted for competing risk of death and changes in risk factors) of diagnoses with five cancers: prostate, breast, renal, thyroid cancers, and melanoma. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Difference in lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis between 1982 and 2012, interpreted as probable overdiagnosis. RESULTS: For women, absolute lifetime risk increased by 3.4 percentage points for breast cancer (invasive cancers, 1.7 percentage points), 0.6 percentage point for renal cancer, 1.0 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 5.1 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 0.7 percentage point). An estimated 22% of breast cancers (invasive cancers, 13%), 58% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 54% of melanomas (invasive melanoma, 15%) were overdiagnosed, or 18% of all cancer diagnoses (8% of invasive cancer diagnoses). For men, absolute lifetime risk increased by 8.2 percentage points for prostate cancer, 0.8 percentage point for renal cancer, 0.4 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 8.0 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 1.5 percentage points). An estimated 42% of prostate cancers, 42% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 58% of melanomas (invasive melanomas, 22%) were overdiagnosed, or 24% of all cancer diagnoses (16% of invasive cancer diagnoses). Alternative assumptions slightly modified the estimates for overdiagnosis of breast cancer and melanoma. CONCLUSIONS: About 11 000 cancers in women and 18 000 in men may be overdiagnosed each year. Rates of overdiagnosis need to be reduced and health services should monitor emerging areas of overdiagnosis.

Is the risk of cancer in Australia overstated? The importance of competing mortality for estimating lifetime risk.

OBJECTIVES: To calculate lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis and cancer-specific death, adjusted for competing mortality, and to compare these estimates with the corresponding risks published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW). DESIGN, SETTING: Analysis of publicly available annual AIHW data on age-specific cancer incidence and mortality - for breast cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, melanoma of the skin, and lung cancer - and all-cause mortality in Australia, 1982-2013. OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis and mortality (to age 85), adjusted for competing mortality. RESULTS: During 1982-2013, AIHW estimates were consistently higher than our competing mortality-adjusted estimates of lifetime risks of diagnosis and death for all five cancers. Differences between AIHW and adjusted estimates declined with time for breast cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, and lung cancer (for men only), but remained steady for lung cancer (women only) and melanoma of the skin. In 2013, the respective estimated lifetime risks of diagnosis (AIHW and adjusted) were 12.7% and 12.1% for breast cancer, 18.7% and 16.2% for prostate cancer, 9.0% and 7.0% (men) and 6.4% and 5.5% (women) for colorectal cancer, 7.5% and 6.0% (men) and 4.4% and 4.0% (women) for melanoma of the skin, and 7.6% and 5.8% (men) and 4.5% and 3.9% (women) for lung cancer. CONCLUSION: The method employed in Australia to calculate the lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis and mortality overestimates these risks, especially for men.

Ecological study estimating melanoma overdiagnosis in the USA using the lifetime risk method.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the proportion of melanoma diagnoses (invasive and in situ) in the USA that might be overdiagnosed. DESIGN: In this ecological study, incidence and mortality data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 registries database. DevCan software was used to calculate the cumulative lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma between 1975 and 2018, with adjustments made for changes in longevity and risk factors over the study period. SETTING: USA. PARTICIPANTS: White American men and women (1975-2018). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was excess lifetime risk of melanoma diagnosis between 1976 and 2018 (adjusted for year 2018 competing mortality and changes in risk factors), which was inferred as likely overdiagnosis. The secondary outcome was an excess lifetime risk of melanoma diagnosis in each year between 1976 and 2018 (adjusted and unadjusted). RESULTS: Between 1975 and 2018 the adjusted lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma (invasive and in situ) increased from 3.2% (1 in 31) to 6.4% (1 in 16) among white men, and from 1.6% (1 in 63) to 4.5% (1 in 22) among white women. Over the same period, the adjusted lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma in situ increased from 0.17% (1 in 588) to 2.7% (1 in 37) in white men and 0.08% (1 in 1250) to 2.0% (1 in 50) in white women. An estimated 49.7% of melanomas diagnosed in white men and 64.6% in white women were overdiagnosed in 2018. Among people diagnosed with melanomas in situ, 89.4% of white men and 85.4% of white women were likely overdiagnosed in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Melanoma overdiagnosis among white Americans is significant and increasing over time with an estimated 44 000 overdiagnosed in men and 39 000 in women in 2018. A large proportion of overdiagnosed melanomas are in situ cancers, pointing to a potential focus for intervention.

Exploring anaesthetists' views on the carbon footprint of anaesthesia and identifying opportunities and challenges for reducing its impact on the environment.

A shift in practice by anaesthetists away from anaesthetic gases with high global warming potential towards lower emission techniques (e.g. total intravenous anaesthesia) could result in significant carbon savings for the health system. The purpose of this qualitative interview study was to understand anaesthetists' perspectives on the carbon footprint of anaesthesia, and views on shifting practice towards more environmentally sustainable options. Anaesthetists were recruited from four hospitals in Western Sydney, Australia. Data were organised according to the capability-opportunity-motivation model of behaviour change. Twenty-eight anaesthetists were interviewed (July-September 2021). Participants' age ranged from 29 to 62 years (mean 43 years), 39% were female, and half had completed their anaesthesia training between 2010 and 2019. Challenges to the wider use of greener anaesthetic agents were identified across all components of the capability-opportunity-motivation model: capability (gaps in clinician skills and experience, uncertainty regarding research evidence); opportunity (norms, time, and resource pressures); and motivation (beliefs, habits, responsibility and guilt). Suggestions for encouraging a shift to more environmentally friendly anaesthesia included access to education and training, implementing guidelines and audit/feedback models, environmental restructuring, improving resource availability, reducing low value care, and building the research evidence base on the safety of alternative agents and their impacts on patient outcomes. We identified opportunities and challenges to reducing the carbon footprint of anaesthesia in Australian hospitals by way of system-level and individual behavioural change. Our findings will be used to inform the development of communication and behavioural interventions aiming to mitigate carbon emissions of healthcare.

Considering potential benefits, as well as harms, from the COVID-19 disruption to cancer screening and other healthcare services.

Since 2020, hundreds of thousands of more deaths than expected have been observed across the globe. Amid the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, current research priorities are to control the spread of infection and minimise loss of life. However, there may be future opportunities to learn from the pandemic to build a better healthcare system that delivers maximum health benefits with minimum harm. So far, much research has focused on foregone benefits of healthcare services such as cancer screening during the pandemic. A more balanced approach is to recognise that all healthcare services have potential harms as well as benefits. In this way, we may be able to use pandemic 'natural experiments' to identify cases where a reduction in a healthcare service has not been harmful to the population and some instances where this may have even been beneficial.

Simulations found within-subject measurement variation in glycaemic measures may cause overdiagnosis of prediabetes and diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of test measurement variation on misclassification of prediabetes and diabetes in the US adult population. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Data from adults with no prior diagnosis of diabetes in the 2015 to 2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were used to simulate populations of US adults eligible for screening. Estimates of measurement variation were applied to each simulated individual's true values to generate observed values for up to five repeated screens. RESULTS: UNDERDIAGNOSIS: For 100,000 people assessed according to ADA or USPSTF guidelines, no people with true values in the diabetes range would be underdiagnosed as normal after one screen, and between 64 and 138 people would be misclassified with prediabetes after five re-screens (depending on guideline and test used). OVERDIAGNOSIS: For 100,000 people assessed according to the guidelines, between 1,602 and 2,233 people with true values in the normal range would be over diagnosed with prediabetes after 3 re-screens. A further 627 to 1,672 people with true values in the prediabetes range would be over diagnosed with diabetes after 5 re-screens. CONCLUSION: Measurement variation may cause overdiagnosis of prediabetes and diabetes, as well as apparent "progression" or "regression" of either condition.

Perspectives and Experiences of Patient-Led Melanoma Surveillance Using Digital Technologies From Clinicians Involved in the MEL-SELF Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial: Qualitative Interview Study.

BACKGROUND: The growing number of melanoma patients who need long-term surveillance increasingly exceeds the capacity of the dermatology workforce, particularly outside of metropolitan areas. Digital technologies that enable patients to perform skin self-examination and send dermoscopic images of lesions of concern to a dermatologist (mobile teledermoscopy) are a potential solution. If these technologies and the remote delivery of melanoma surveillance are to be incorporated into routine clinical practice, they need to be accepted by clinicians providing melanoma care, such as dermatologists and general practitioners (GPs). OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore perceptions of potential benefits and harms of mobile teledermoscopy, as well as experiences with this technology, among clinicians participating in a pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) of patient-led melanoma surveillance. METHODS: This qualitative study was nested within a pilot RCT conducted at dermatologist and skin specialist GP-led melanoma clinics in New South Wales, Australia. We conducted semistructured interviews with 8 of the total 11 clinicians who were involved in the trial, including 4 dermatologists (3 provided teledermatology, 2 were treating clinicians), 1 surgical oncologist, and 3 GPs with qualifications in skin cancer screening (the remaining 3 GPs declined an interview). Thematic analysis was used to analyze the data with reference to the concepts of "medical overuse" and "high-value care." RESULTS: Clinicians identified several potential benefits, including increased access to dermatology services, earlier detection of melanomas, reassurance for patients between scheduled visits, and a reduction in unnecessary clinic visits. However, they also identified some potential concerns regarding the use of the technology and remote monitoring that could result in diagnostic uncertainty. These included poor image quality, difficulty making assessments from a 2D digital image (even if good quality), insufficient clinical history provided, and concern that suspicious lesions may have been missed by the patient. Clinicians thought that uncertainty arising from these concerns, together with perceived potential medicolegal consequences from missing a diagnosis, might lead to increases in unnecessary clinic visits and procedures. Strategies suggested for achieving high-value care included managing clinical uncertainty to decrease the potential for medical overuse and ensuring optimal placement of patient-led teledermoscopy within existing clinical care pathways to increase the potential for benefits. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians were enthusiastic about the potential and experienced benefits of mobile teledermoscopy; however, managing clinical uncertainty will be necessary to achieve these benefits in clinical care outside of trial contexts and minimize potential harms from medical overuse. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616001716459; https://anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=371865.

Future directions in cardiovascular disease risk prediction.

BACKGROUND: Although the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance (NVDPA) guidelines were published in 2012, many individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are not prescribed preventive medication or have CVD risk factors recorded. Better use of CVD risk prediction tools and targeting of medication could reduce CVD. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article is to review recent developments in CVD risk prediction, including calculators developed in the USA, UK and New Zealand, and non-traditional tests for cardiovascular risk assessment. DISCUSSION: The Framingham Risk Equation explains much of the risk variance in the population but overestimates risk for a contemporary Australian population. Newer risk calculators show improvement in calibration. Individuals vary greatly in terms of whether they will find the potential benefits of taking medication worthwhile, and shared decision-making tools can help to clarify decision making.