Use of Artificial Intelligence in Improving Outcomes in Heart Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

A major focus of academia, industry, and global governmental agencies is to develop and apply artificial intelligence and other advanced analytical tools to transform health care delivery. The American Heart Association supports the creation of tools and services that would further the science and practice of precision medicine by enabling more precise approaches to cardiovascular and stroke research, prevention, and care of individuals and populations. Nevertheless, several challenges exist, and few artificial intelligence tools have been shown to improve cardiovascular and stroke care sufficiently to be widely adopted. This scientific statement outlines the current state of the art on the use of artificial intelligence algorithms and data science in the diagnosis, classification, and treatment of cardiovascular disease. It also sets out to advance this mission, focusing on how digital tools and, in particular, artificial intelligence may provide clinical and mechanistic insights, address bias in clinical studies, and facilitate education and implementation science to improve cardiovascular and stroke outcomes. Last, a key objective of this scientific statement is to further the field by identifying best practices, gaps, and challenges for interested stakeholders.

Blood pressure lowering and risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure lowering is an established strategy for preventing microvascular and macrovascular complications of diabetes, but its role in the prevention of diabetes itself is unclear. We aimed to examine this question using individual participant data from major randomised controlled trials. METHODS: We performed a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis, in which data were pooled to investigate the effect of blood pressure lowering per se on the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes. An individual participant data network meta-analysis was used to investigate the differential effects of five major classes of antihypertensive drugs on the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes. Overall, data from 22 studies conducted between 1973 and 2008, were obtained by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (Oxford University, Oxford, UK). We included all primary and secondary prevention trials that used a specific class or classes of antihypertensive drugs versus placebo or other classes of blood pressure lowering medications that had at least 1000 persons-years of follow-up in each randomly allocated arm. Participants with a known diagnosis of diabetes at baseline and trials conducted in patients with prevalent diabetes were excluded. For the one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis we used stratified Cox proportional hazards model and for the individual participant data network meta-analysis we used logistic regression models to calculate the relative risk (RR) for drug class comparisons. FINDINGS: 145 939 participants (88 500 [60·6%] men and 57 429 [39·4%] women) from 19 randomised controlled trials were included in the one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis. 22 trials were included in the individual participant data network meta-analysis. After a median follow-up of 4·5 years (IQR 2·0), 9883 participants were diagnosed with new-onset type 2 diabetes. Systolic blood pressure reduction by 5 mm Hg reduced the risk of type 2 diabetes across all trials by 11% (hazard ratio 0·89 [95% CI 0·84-0·95]). Investigation of the effects of five major classes of antihypertensive drugs showed that in comparison to placebo, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (RR 0·84 [95% 0·76-0·93]) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (RR 0·84 [0·76-0·92]) reduced the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes; however, the use of ß blockers (RR 1·48 [1·27-1·72]) and thiazide diuretics (RR 1·20 [1·07-1·35]) increased this risk, and no material effect was found for calcium channel blockers (RR 1·02 [0·92-1·13]). INTERPRETATION: Blood pressure lowering is an effective strategy for the prevention of new-onset type 2 diabetes. Established pharmacological interventions, however, have qualitatively and quantitively different effects on diabetes, likely due to their differing off-target effects, with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers having the most favourable outcomes. This evidence supports the indication for selected classes of antihypertensive drugs for the prevention of diabetes, which could further refine the selection of drug choice according to an individual's clinical risk of diabetes. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, and Oxford Martin School.

Gender differences in modifiable risk factors for hip fracture: 10-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 million Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the incidence rates and importance of major modifiable risk factors for hip and major osteoporotic fractures in low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the age- and sex-specific incidence of hip, major osteoporotic, and any fractures and their associated risk factors in Chinese adults. METHODS: This was a prospective study of 512,715 adults, aged 30-79 years, recruited from 10 diverse areas in China from 2004 to 2008 and followed up for 10 years. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were estimated, and Cox regression was used to yield adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and population attributable fractions for risk factors. RESULTS: The incidence rates of hip fracture in Chinese adults were 5.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.0-5.3) per 10,000 person-years; they were higher in women than in men and increased by two- to threefold per 10-year older age. Among men, five risk factors for hip fracture, including low education (HR = 1.23; 95% CI 1.04-1.45), regular smoker (1.22, 1.03-1.45), lower weight (1.59, 1.34-1.88), alcohol drinker (1.18, 1.02-1.36), and prior fracture (1.62, 1.33-1.98), accounted for 44.3% of hip fractures. Among women, lower weight (1.30, 1.15-1.46), low physical activity (1.22, 1.10-1.35), diabetes (1.62, 1.41-1.86), prior fracture (1.54, 1.33-1.77), and self-rated poor health (1.29, 1.13-1.47) accounted for 24.9% of hip fractures. Associations of risk factors with major osteoporotic or any fractures were weaker than those with hip fractures. CONCLUSIONS: The age- and sex-specific incidence rates of hip fracture in Chinese adults were comparable with those in Western populations. Five potentially modifiable factors accounted for half of the hip fractures in men and one quarter in women.

Long-term solid fuel use and risks of major eye diseases in China: A population-based cohort study of 486,532 adults.

BACKGROUND: Over 3.5 billion individuals worldwide are exposed to household air pollution from solid fuel use. There is limited evidence from cohort studies on associations of solid fuel use with risks of major eye diseases, which cause substantial disease and economic burden globally. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The China Kadoorie Biobank recruited 512,715 adults aged 30 to 79 years from 10 areas across China during 2004 to 2008. Cooking frequency and primary fuel types in the 3 most recent residences were assessed by a questionnaire. During median (IQR) 10.1 (9.2 to 11.1) years of follow-up, electronic linkages to national health insurance databases identified 4,877 incident conjunctiva disorders, 13,408 cataracts, 1,583 disorders of sclera, cornea, iris, and ciliary body (DSCIC), and 1,534 cases of glaucoma. Logistic regression yielded odds ratios (ORs) for each disease associated with long-term use of solid fuels (i.e., coal or wood) compared to clean fuels (i.e., gas or electricity) for cooking, with adjustment for age at baseline, birth cohort, sex, study area, education, occupation, alcohol intake, smoking, environmental tobacco smoke, cookstove ventilation, heating fuel exposure, body mass index, prevalent diabetes, self-reported general health, and length of recall period. After excluding participants with missing or unreliable exposure data, 486,532 participants (mean baseline age 52.0 [SD 10.7] years; 59.1% women) were analysed. Overall, 71% of participants cooked regularly throughout the recall period, of whom 48% used solid fuels consistently. Compared with clean fuel users, solid fuel users had adjusted ORs of 1.32 (1.07 to 1.37, p < 0.001) for conjunctiva disorders, 1.17 (1.08 to 1.26, p < 0.001) for cataracts, 1.35 (1.10 to 1.66, p = 0.0046) for DSCIC, and 0.95 (0.76 to 1.18, p = 0.62) for glaucoma. Switching from solid to clean fuels was associated with smaller elevated risks (over long-term clean fuel users) than nonswitching, with adjusted ORs of 1.21 (1.07 to 1.37, p < 0.001), 1.05 (0.98 to 1.12, p = 0.17), and 1.21 (0.97 to 1.50, p = 0.088) for conjunctiva disorders, cataracts, and DSCIC, respectively. The adjusted ORs for the eye diseases were broadly similar in solid fuel users regardless of ventilation status. The main limitations of this study include the lack of baseline eye disease assessment, the use of self-reported cooking frequency and fuel types for exposure assessment, the risk of bias from delayed diagnosis (particularly for cataracts), and potential residual confounding from unmeasured factors (e.g., sunlight exposure). CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese adults, long-term solid fuel use for cooking was associated with higher risks of not only conjunctiva disorders but also cataracts and other more severe eye diseases. Switching to clean fuels appeared to mitigate the risks, underscoring the global health importance of promoting universal access to clean fuels.

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate. RESULTS: The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation. CONCLUSIONS: In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Pharmacotherapy for smoking cessation: effects by subgroup defined by genetically informed biomarkers.

This review has been withdrawn because it has been found to be in breach of the Cochrane Commercial Sponsorship policy clause 2:  'Individuals who are currently employed or where employed any time in the last three years by a company that has a real or potential financial interest in the outcome of the review (including but not limited to drug companies or medical device manufacturers); or who hold or have applied for a patent related to the review are prohibited from being Cochrane Review authors. In most cases, current or previous employment would be characterized by the affiliation statement made by the author at the title registration, protocol, or review stage of the review'.

Red meat, poultry and fish consumption and risk of diabetes: a 9 year prospective cohort study of the China Kadoorie Biobank.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Previous evidence linking red meat consumption with diabetes risk mainly came from western countries, with little evidence from China, where patterns of meat consumption are different. Moreover, global evidence remains inconclusive about the associations of poultry and fish consumption with diabetes. Therefore we investigated the associations of red meat, poultry and fish intake with incidence of diabetes in a Chinese population. METHODS: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited ~512,000 adults (59% women, mean age 51 years) from ten rural and urban areas across China in 2004-2008. At the baseline survey, a validated interviewer-administered laptop-based questionnaire was used to collect information on the consumption frequency of major food groups including red meat, poultry, fish, fresh fruit and several others. During ~9 years of follow-up, 14,931 incidences of new-onset diabetes were recorded among 461,036 participants who had no prior diabetes, cardiovascular diseases or cancer at baseline. Cox regression analyses were performed to calculate adjusted HRs for incident diabetes associated with red meat, poultry and fish intake. RESULTS: At baseline, 47.0%, 1.3% and 8.9% of participants reported a regular consumption (i.e. ≥4 days/week) of red meat, poultry and fish, respectively. After adjusting for adiposity and other potential confounders, each 50 g/day increase in red meat and fish intake was associated with 11% (HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.04, 1.20]) and 6% (HR 1.06 [95% CI 1.00, 1.13]) higher risk of incident diabetes, respectively. For both, the associations were more pronounced among men and women from urban areas, with an HR (95% CI) of 1.42 (1.15, 1.74) and 1.18 (1.03, 1.36), respectively, per 50 g/day red meat intake and 1.15 (1.02, 1.30) and 1.11 (1.01, 1.23), respectively, per 50 g/day fish intake. There was no significant association between diabetes and poultry intake, either overall (HR 0.96 [95% CI 0.83, 1.12] per 50 g/day intake) or in specific population subgroups. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In Chinese adults, both red meat and fish, but not poultry, intake were positively associated with diabetes risk, particularly among urban participants. Our findings add new evidence linking red meat and fish intake with cardiometabolic diseases. DATA AVAILABILITY: Details of how to access the China Kadoorie Biobank data and rules of China Kadoorie Biobank data release are available from www.ckbiobank.org/site/Data+Access.

Conventional and genetic evidence on alcohol and vascular disease aetiology: a prospective study of 500 000 men and women in China.

BACKGROUND: Moderate alcohol intake has been associated with reduced cardiovascular risk in many studies, in comparison with abstinence or with heavier drinking. Studies in east Asia can help determine whether these associations are causal, since two common genetic variants greatly affect alcohol drinking patterns. We used these two variants to assess the relationships between cardiovascular risk and genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake in men, contrasting the findings in men with those in women (few of whom drink). METHODS: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 715 adults between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008, from ten areas of China, recording alcohol use and other characteristics. It followed them for about 10 years (until Jan 1, 2017), monitoring cardiovascular disease (including ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and myocardial infarction) by linkage with morbidity and mortality registries and electronic hospital records. 161 498 participants were genotyped for two variants that alter alcohol metabolism, ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984. Adjusted Cox regression was used to obtain the relative risks associating disease incidence with self-reported drinking patterns (conventional epidemiology) or with genotype-predicted mean male alcohol intake (genetic epidemiology-ie, Mendelian randomisation), with stratification by study area to control for variation between areas in disease rates and in genotype-predicted intake. FINDINGS: 33% (69 897/210 205) of men reported drinking alcohol in most weeks, mainly as spirits, compared with only 2% (6245/302 510) of women. Among men, conventional epidemiology showed that self-reported alcohol intake had U-shaped associations with the incidence of ischaemic stroke (n=14 930), intracerebral haemorrhage (n=3496), and acute myocardial infarction (n=2958); men who reported drinking about 100 g of alcohol per week (one to two drinks per day) had lower risks of all three diseases than non-drinkers or heavier drinkers. In contrast, although genotype-predicted mean male alcohol intake varied widely (from 4 to 256 g per week-ie, near zero to about four drinks per day), it did not have any U-shaped associations with risk. For stroke, genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake had a continuously positive log-linear association with risk, which was stronger for intracerebral haemorrhage (relative risk [RR] per 280 g per week 1·58, 95% CI 1·36-1·84, p<0·0001) than for ischaemic stroke (1·27, 1·13-1·43, p=0·0001). For myocardial infarction, however, genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake was not significantly associated with risk (RR per 280 g per week 0·96, 95% CI 0·78-1·18, p=0·69). Usual alcohol intake in current drinkers and genotype-predicted alcohol intake in all men had similarly strong positive associations with systolic blood pressure (each p<0·0001). Among women, few drank and the studied genotypes did not predict high mean alcohol intake and were not positively associated with blood pressure, stroke, or myocardial infarction. INTERPRETATION: Genetic epidemiology shows that the apparently protective effects of moderate alcohol intake against stroke are largely non-causal. Alcohol consumption uniformly increases blood pressure and stroke risk, and appears in this one study to have little net effect on the risk of myocardial infarction. FUNDING: Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, GlaxoSmithKline, Medical Research Council, and Wellcome Trust.

Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years.

BACKGROUND: Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHODS: We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS: In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury. RESULTS: Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change. CONCLUSIONS: While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Solid Fuel Use and Risks of Respiratory Diseases. A Cohort Study of 280,000 Chinese Never-Smokers.

RATIONALE: Little evidence from large-scale cohort studies exists about the relationship of solid fuel use with hospitalization and mortality from major respiratory diseases. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations of solid fuel use and risks of acute and chronic respiratory diseases. METHODS: A cohort study of 277,838 Chinese never-smokers with no prior major chronic diseases at baseline. During 9 years of follow-up, 19,823 first hospitalization episodes or deaths from major respiratory diseases, including 10,553 chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD), 4,398 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 7,324 acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), were recorded. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for disease risks associated with self-reported primary cooking fuel use. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Overall, 91% of participants reported regular cooking, with 52% using solid fuels. Compared with clean fuel users, solid fuel users had an adjusted HR of 1.36 (95% confidence interval, 1.32-1.40) for major respiratory diseases, whereas those who switched from solid to clean fuels had a weaker HR (1.14, 1.10-1.17). The HRs were higher in wood (1.37, 1.33-1.41) than coal users (1.22, 1.15-1.29) and in those with prolonged use (≥40 yr, 1.54, 1.48-1.60; <20 yr, 1.32, 1.26-1.39), but lower among those who used ventilated than nonventilated cookstoves (1.22, 1.19-1.25 vs. 1.29, 1.24-1.35). For CLRD, COPD, and ALRI, the HRs associated with solid fuel use were 1.47 (1.41-1.52), 1.10 (1.03-1.18), and 1.16 (1.09-1.23), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese adults, solid fuel use for cooking was associated with higher risks of major respiratory disease admissions and death, and switching to clean fuels or use of ventilated cookstoves had lower risk than not switching.

Smoking Cessation Pharmacotherapy Based on Genetically-Informed Biomarkers: What is the Evidence?

INTRODUCTION: Pharmacogenomic studies have used genetic variants to identify smokers likely to respond to pharmacological treatments for smoking cessation. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of primary and secondary analyses of trials of smoking cessation pharmacotherapies. Eligible were trials with data on a priori selected single nucleotide polymorphisms, replicated non-single nucleotide polymorphisms, and/or the nicotine metabolite ratio. We estimated the genotype × treatment interaction as the ratio of risk ratios (RRR) for treatment effects across genotype groups. RESULTS: We identified 18 trials (N = 9017 participants), including 40 active (bupropion, nicotine replacement therapy [NRT], varenicline, or combination therapies) versus placebo comparisons and 16 active versus active comparisons. There was statistical evidence of heterogeneity across rs16969968 genotypes in CHRNA5 with regard to both 6-month abstinence and end-of-treatment abstinence in non-Hispanic black smokers and end-of-treatment abstinence in non-Hispanic white smokers. There was also heterogeneity across rs1051730 genotypes in CHRNA3 with regard to end-of-treatment abstinence in non-Hispanic white smokers. There was no clear statistical evidence for other genotype-by-treatment combinations. Compared with placebo, NRT was more effective among non-Hispanic black smokers with rs16969968-GG with regard to both 6-month abstinence (RRR for GG vs. GA or AA, 3.51; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19 to 10.30) and end-of-treatment abstinence (RRR for GG vs. GA or AA, 5.84; 95% CI = 1.89 to 18.10). Among non-Hispanic white smokers, NRT effectiveness relative to placebo was comparable across rs1051730 and rs169969960 genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: We did not identify widespread differential effects of smoking cessation pharmacotherapies based on genotype. The quality of the evidence is generally moderate. IMPLICATIONS: Although we identified some evidence of genotype × treatment interactions, the vast majority of analyses did not provide evidence of differential treatment response by genotype. Where we find some evidence, these results should be considered preliminary and interpreted with caution because of the small number of contributing trials per genotype comparison, the wide confidence intervals, and the moderate quality of evidence. Prospective trials and individual-patient data meta-analyses accounting for heterogeneity of treatment effects through modeling are needed to assess the clinical utility of genetically informed biomarkers to guide pharmacotherapy choice for smoking cessation.

Association of vitamin D with risk of type 2 diabetes: A Mendelian randomisation study in European and Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have reported that higher plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations are associated with lower risks of diabetes, but it is unclear if these associations are causal. The aim of this study was to test the relevance of 25(OH)D for type 2 diabetes using genetically instrumented differences in plasma 25(OH)D concentrations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were available on four 25(OH)D single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; n = 82,464), plasma 25(OH)D concentrations (n = 13,565), and cases with diabetes (n = 5,565) in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). The effects on risk of diabetes were assessed by a genetic score using two 25(OH)D synthesis SNPs (DHCR7-rs12785878 and CYP2R1-rs10741657), with and without the addition of SNPs affecting the transport (GC/DBP-rs2282679) and catabolism (CYP24A1-rs6013897) of 25(OH)D. The CKB results were combined in a meta-analysis of 10 studies for the 2 synthesis SNPs (n = 58,312 cases) and 7 studies for all 4 SNPs (n = 32,796 cases). Mean (SD) 25(OH)D concentration was 62 (20) nmol/l in CKB, and the per allele effects of genetic scores on 25(OH)D were 2.87 (SE 0.39) for the synthesis SNPs and 3.54 (SE 0.32) for all SNPs. A 25-nmol/l higher biochemically measured 25(OH)D was associated with a 9% (95% CI: 0%-18%) lower risk of diabetes in CKB. In a meta-analysis of all studies, a 25-nmol/l higher genetically instrumented 25(OH)D concentration was associated with a 14% (95% CI: 3%-23%) lower risk of diabetes (p = 0.01) using the 2 synthesis SNPs. An equivalent difference in 25(OH)D using a genetic score with 4 SNPs was not significantly associated with diabetes (odds ratio 8%, 95% CI: -1% to 16%, lower risk, p = 0.07), but had some evidence of pleiotropy. A limitation of the meta-analysis was the access only to study level rather than individual level data. CONCLUSIONS: The concordant risks of diabetes for biochemically measured and genetically instrumented differences in 25(OH)D using synthesis SNPs provide evidence for a causal effect of higher 25(OH)D for prevention of diabetes.

Association of Solid Fuel Use With Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality in Rural China.

Importance: When combusted indoors, solid fuels generate a large amount of pollutants such as fine particulate matter. Objective: To assess the associations of solid fuel use for cooking and heating with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide prospective cohort study recruited participants from 5 rural areas across China between June 2004 and July 2008; mortality follow-up was until January 1, 2014. A total of 271 217 adults without a self-reported history of physician-diagnosed cardiovascular disease at baseline were included, with a random subset (n = 10 892) participating in a resurvey after a mean interval of 2.7 years. Exposures: Self-reported primary cooking and heating fuels (solid: coal, wood, or charcoal; clean: gas, electricity, or central heating), switching of fuel type before baseline, and use of ventilated cookstoves. Main Outcomes and Measures: Death from cardiovascular and all causes, collected through established death registries. Results: Among the 271 217 participants, the mean (SD) age was 51.0 (10.2) years, and 59% (n = 158 914) were women. A total of 66% (n = 179 952) of the participants reported regular cooking (at least weekly) and 60% (n = 163 882) reported winter heating, of whom 84% (n = 150 992) and 90% (n = 147 272) used solid fuels, respectively. There were 15 468 deaths, including 5519 from cardiovascular causes, documented during a mean (SD) of 7.2 (1.4) years of follow-up. Use of solid fuels for cooking was associated with greater risk of cardiovascular mortality (absolute rate difference [ARD] per 100 000 person-years, 135 [95% CI, 77-193]; hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.02-1.41]) and all-cause mortality (ARD, 338 [95% CI, 249-427]; HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.03-1.20]). Use of solid fuels for heating was also associated with greater risk of cardiovascular mortality (ARD, 175 [95% CI, 118-231]; HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.06-1.55]) and all-cause mortality (ARD, 392 [95% CI, 297-487]; HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.03-1.26]). Compared with persistent solid fuel users, participants who reported having previously switched from solid to clean fuels for cooking had a lower risk of cardiovascular mortality (ARD, 138 [95% CI, 71-205]; HR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.69-0.99]) and all-cause mortality (ARD, 407 [95% CI, 317-497]; HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.79-0.95]), while for heating, the ARDs were 193 (95% CI, 128-258) and 492 (95% CI, 383-601), and the HRs were 0.57 (95% CI, 0.42-0.77) and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.57-0.79), respectively. Among solid fuel users, use of ventilated cookstoves was also associated with lower risk of cardiovascular mortality (ARD, 33 [95% CI, -9 to 75]; HR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.80-0.99]) and all-cause mortality (ARD, 87 [95% CI, 20-153]; HR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.85-0.96]). Conclusions and Relevance: In rural China, solid fuel use for cooking and heating was associated with higher risks of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. These risks may be lower among those who had previously switched to clean fuels and those who used ventilation.

The Standards of Reporting of Neurological Disorders (STROND) checklist: Application to multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Descriptive epidemiological studies documenting the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) and studies that report morbidity, mortality, and economic burden provide essential information for patients, healthcare providers, and policymakers. However, the quality of reporting of observational studies is often poor, limiting the ability to evaluate the validity of the findings. The Standards of Reporting of Neurological Disorders (STROND) reporting guideline comprises recommendations and a 15-item checklist of reporting items to aid high-quality reporting of incidence and prevalence studies of neurological disorders. METHODS: We explain the basic reporting items of the STROND checklist for the methods, results, and discussion sections in the context of the MS literature and searched for examples of good reporting of those items. RESULTS: We identified examples of good reporting of the basic reporting items from previous systematic reviews of the descriptive epidemiologic literature in MS. CONCLUSION: The adoption of the STROND reporting guidelines should improve the quality of reporting of descriptive epidemiological studies in MS. Along with efforts to improve methodological aspects of epidemiological studies and harmonization of data collection efforts, improved reporting could contribute to furthering our understanding of the epidemiology of MS.

Systematic review of statistical approaches to quantify, or correct for, measurement error in a continuous exposure in nutritional epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: Several statistical approaches have been proposed to assess and correct for exposure measurement error. We aimed to provide a critical overview of the most common approaches used in nutritional epidemiology. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS and CINAHL were searched for reports published in English up to May 2016 in order to ascertain studies that described methods aimed to quantify and/or correct for measurement error for a continuous exposure in nutritional epidemiology using a calibration study. RESULTS: We identified 126 studies, 43 of which described statistical methods and 83 that applied any of these methods to a real dataset. The statistical approaches in the eligible studies were grouped into: a) approaches to quantify the relationship between different dietary assessment instruments and "true intake", which were mostly based on correlation analysis and the method of triads; b) approaches to adjust point and interval estimates of diet-disease associations for measurement error, mostly based on regression calibration analysis and its extensions. Two approaches (multiple imputation and moment reconstruction) were identified that can deal with differential measurement error. CONCLUSIONS: For regression calibration, the most common approach to correct for measurement error used in nutritional epidemiology, it is crucial to ensure that its assumptions and requirements are fully met. Analyses that investigate the impact of departures from the classical measurement error model on regression calibration estimates can be helpful to researchers in interpreting their findings. With regard to the possible use of alternative methods when regression calibration is not appropriate, the choice of method should depend on the measurement error model assumed, the availability of suitable calibration study data and the potential for bias due to violation of the classical measurement error model assumptions. On the basis of this review, we provide some practical advice for the use of methods to assess and adjust for measurement error in nutritional epidemiology.

Pharmacotherapy for smoking cessation: effects by subgroup defined by genetically informed biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Smoking cessation therapies are not effective for all smokers, and researchers are interested in identifying those subgroups of individuals (e.g. based on genotype) who respond best to specific treatments. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether quit rates vary by genetically informed biomarkers within pharmacotherapy treatment arms and as compared with placebo. To assess the effects of pharmacotherapies for smoking cessation in subgroups of smokers defined by genotype for identified genome-wide significant polymorphisms. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group specialised register, clinical trial registries, and genetics databases for trials of pharmacotherapies for smoking cessation from inception until 16 August 2016. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that recruited adult smokers and reported pharmacogenomic analyses from trials of smoking cessation pharmacotherapies versus controls. Eligible trials included those with data on a priori genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10-8) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), replicated non-SNPs, and/or the nicotine metabolite ratio (NMR), hereafter collectively described as biomarkers. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. The primary outcome was smoking abstinence at six months after treatment. The secondary outcome was abstinence at end of treatment (EOT). We conducted two types of meta-analyses- one in which we assessed smoking cessation of active treatment versus placebo within genotype groups, and another in which we compared smoking cessation across genotype groups within treatment arms. We carried out analyses separately in non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) and non-Hispanic blacks (NHBs). We assessed heterogeneity between genotype groups using T², I², and Cochrane Q statistics. MAIN RESULTS: Analyses included 18 trials including 9017 participants, of whom 6924 were NHW and 2093 NHB participants. Data were available for the following biomarkers: nine SNPs (rs1051730 (CHRNA3); rs16969968, rs588765, and rs2036527 (CHRNA5); rs3733829 and rs7937 (in EGLN2, near CYP2A6); rs1329650 and rs1028936 (LOC100188947); and rs215605 (PDE1C)), two variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs; DRD4 and SLC6A4), and the NMR. Included data produced a total of 40 active versus placebo comparisons, 16 active versus active comparisons, and 64 between-genotype comparisons within treatment arms.For those meta-analyses showing statistically significant heterogeneity between genotype groups, we found the quality of evidence (GRADE) to be generally moderate. We downgraded quality most often because of imprecision or risk of bias due to potential selection bias in genotyping trial participants. Comparisons of relative treatment effects by genotypeFor six-month abstinence, we found statistically significant heterogeneity between genotypes (rs16969968) for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) versus placebo at six months for NHB participants (P = 0.03; n = 2 trials), but not for other biomarkers or treatment comparisons. Six-month abstinence was increased in the active NRT group as compared to placebo among participants with a GG genotype (risk ratio (RR) 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 2.03), but not in the combined group of participants with a GA or AA genotype (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.26; ratio of risk ratios (RRR) GG vs GA or AA of 3.51, 95% CI 1.19 to 10.3). Comparisons of treatment effects between genotype groups within pharmacotherapy randomisation armsFor those receiving active NRT, treatment was more effective in achieving six-month abstinence among individuals with a slow NMR than among those with a normal NMR among NHW and NHB combined participants (normal NMR vs slow NMR: RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.78; n = 2 trials). We found no such differences in treatment effects between genotypes at six months for any of the other biomarkers among individuals who received pharmacotherapy or placebo. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We did not identify widespread differential treatment effects of pharmacotherapy based on genotype. Some genotype groups within certain ethnic groups may benefit more from NRT or may benefit less from the combination of bupropion with NRT. The reader should interpret these results with caution because none of the statistically significant meta-analyses included more than two trials per genotype comparison, many confidence intervals were wide, and the quality of this evidence (GRADE) was generally moderate. Although we found evidence of superior NRT efficacy for NMR slow versus normal metabolisers, because of the lack of heterogeneity between NMR groups, we cannot conclude that NRT is more effective for slow metabolisers. Access to additional data from multiple trials is needed, particularly for comparisons of different pharmacotherapies.

Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015.

Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

Incidence of Transient Ischemic Attack in Auckland, New Zealand, in 2011 to 2012.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There have been few recent population-based studies reporting the incidence (first ever) and attack rates (incident and recurrent) of transient ischemic attack (TIA). METHODS: The fourth Auckland Regional Community Stroke study (ARCOS IV) used multiple overlapping case ascertainment methods to identify all hospitalized and nonhospitalized cases of TIA that occurred in people ≥16 years of age usually resident in Auckland (population ≥16 years of age is 1.12 million), during the 12 months from March 1, 2011. All first-ever and recurrent new TIAs (any new TIA 28 days after the index event) during the study period were recorded. RESULTS: There were 785 people with TIA (402 [51.2%] women, mean [SD] age 71.5 [13.8] years); 614 (78%) of European origin, 84 (11%) Maori/Pacific, and 75 (10%) Asian/Other. The annual incidence of TIA was 40 (95% confidence interval, 36-43), and attack rate was 63 (95% confidence interval, 59-68), per 100 000 people, age standardized to the World Health Organization world population. Approximately two thirds of people were known to be hypertensive or were being treated with blood pressure-lowering agents, half were taking antiplatelet agents and just under half were taking lipid-lowering therapy before the index TIA. Two hundred ten (27%) people were known to have atrial fibrillation at the time of the TIA, of whom only 61 (29%) were taking anticoagulant therapy, suggesting a failure to identify or treat atrial fibrillation. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes the burden of TIA in an era of aggressive primary and secondary vascular risk factor management. Education programs for medical practitioners and patients around the identification and management of atrial fibrillation are required.