Adverse events following first and second dose COVID-19 vaccination in England, October 2020 to September 2021: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study.

BackgroundPost-authorisation vaccine safety surveillance is well established for reporting common adverse events of interest (AEIs) following influenza vaccines, but not for COVID-19 vaccines.AimTo estimate the incidence of AEIs presenting to primary care following COVID-19 vaccination in England, and report safety profile differences between vaccine brands.MethodsWe used a self-controlled case series design to estimate relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the national sentinel network, the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. We compared AEIs (overall and by clinical category) 7 days pre- and post-vaccination to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021.ResultsWithin 7,952,861 records, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs, 4.85% within 7 days post-vaccination. Overall, medically attended AEIs decreased post-vaccination against background levels. There was a 3-7% decrease in incidence within 7 days after both doses of Comirnaty (RI: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94 and RI: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98, respectively) and Vaxzevria (RI: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98). A 20% increase was observed after one dose of Spikevax (RI: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00-1.44). Fewer AEIs were reported as age increased. Types of AEIs, e.g. increased neurological and psychiatric conditions, varied between brands following two doses of Comirnaty (RI: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.28-1.56) and Vaxzevria (RI: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.78).ConclusionCOVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in medically attended AEI incidence. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, contributing to reporting vaccine safety.

Diagnostic performance of a faecal immunochemical test for patients with low-risk symptoms of colorectal cancer in primary care: an evaluation in the South West of England.

BACKGROUND: The faecal immunochemical test (FIT) was introduced to triage patients with low-risk symptoms of possible colorectal cancer in English primary care in 2017, underpinned by little primary care evidence. METHODS: All healthcare providers in the South West of England (population 4 million) participated in this evaluation. 3890 patients aged ≥50 years presenting in primary care with low-risk symptoms of colorectal cancer had a FIT from 01/06/2018 to 31/12/2018. A threshold of 10 µg Hb/g faeces defined a positive test. RESULTS: Six hundred and eighteen (15.9%) patients tested positive; 458 (74.1%) had an urgent referral to specialist lower gastrointestinal (GI) services within three months. Forty-three were diagnosed with colorectal cancer within 12 months. 3272 tested negative; 324 (9.9%) had an urgent referral within three months. Eight were diagnosed with colorectal cancer within 12 months. Positive predictive value was 7.0% (95% CI 5.1-9.3%). Negative predictive value was 99.8% (CI 99.5-99.9%). Sensitivity was 84.3% (CI 71.4-93.0%), specificity 85.0% (CI 83.8-86.1%). The area under the ROC curve was 0.92 (CI 0.86-0.96). A threshold of 37 µg Hb/g faeces would identify patients with an individual 3% risk of cancer. CONCLUSIONS: FIT performs exceptionally well to triage patients with low-risk symptoms of colorectal cancer in primary care; a higher threshold may be appropriate in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis.

The impact of social and physical distancing measures on COVID-19 activity in England: findings from a multi-tiered surveillance system.

BackgroundA multi-tiered surveillance system based on influenza surveillance was adopted in the United Kingdom in the early stages of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic to monitor different stages of the disease. Mandatory social and physical distancing measures (SPDM) were introduced on 23 March 2020 to attempt to limit transmission.AimTo describe the impact of SPDM on COVID-19 activity as detected through the different surveillance systems.MethodsData from national population surveys, web-based indicators, syndromic surveillance, sentinel swabbing, respiratory outbreaks, secondary care admissions and mortality indicators from the start of the epidemic to week 18 2020 were used to identify the timing of peaks in surveillance indicators relative to the introduction of SPDM. This timing was compared with median time from symptom onset to different stages of illness and levels of care or interactions with healthcare services.ResultsThe impact of SPDM was detected within 1 week through population surveys, web search indicators and sentinel swabbing reported by onset date. There were detectable impacts on syndromic surveillance indicators for difficulty breathing, influenza-like illness and COVID-19 coding at 2, 7 and 12 days respectively, hospitalisations and critical care admissions (both 12 days), laboratory positivity (14 days), deaths (17 days) and nursing home outbreaks (4 weeks).ConclusionThe impact of SPDM on COVID-19 activity was detectable within 1 week through community surveillance indicators, highlighting their importance in early detection of changes in activity. Community swabbing surveillance may be increasingly important as a specific indicator, should circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses increase.

Linkage of the CHHiP randomised controlled trial with primary care data: a study investigating ways of supplementing cancer trials and improving evidence-based practice.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evidence-based practice. However, RCTs can have limitations. For example, translation of findings into practice can be limited by design features, such as inclusion criteria, not accurately reflecting clinical populations. In addition, it is expensive to recruit and follow-up participants in RCTs. Linkage with routinely collected data could offer a cost-effective way to enhance the conduct and generalisability of RCTs. The aim of this study is to investigate how primary care data can support RCTs. METHODS: Secondary analysis following linkage of two datasets: 1) multicentre CHHiP radiotherapy trial (ISRCTN97182923) and 2) primary care database from the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. Comorbidities and medications recorded in CHHiP at baseline, and radiotherapy-related toxicity recorded in CHHiP over time were compared with primary care records. The association of comorbidities and medications with toxicity was analysed with mixed-effects logistic regression. RESULTS: Primary care records were extracted for 106 out of 2811 CHHiP participants recruited from sites in England (median age 70, range 44 to 82). Complementary information included longitudinal body mass index, blood pressure and cholesterol, as well as baseline smoking and alcohol usage but was limited by the considerable missing data. In the linked sample, 9 (8%) participants were recorded in CHHiP as having a history of diabetes and 38 (36%) hypertension, whereas primary care records indicated incidence prior to trial entry of 11 (10%) and 40 (38%) respectively. Concomitant medications were not collected in CHHiP but available in primary care records. This indicated that 44 (41.5%) men took aspirin, 65 (61.3%) statins, 14 (13.2%) metformin and 46 (43.4%) phosphodiesterase-5-inhibitors at some point before or after trial entry. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a set of recommendations on linkage and supplementation of trials. Data recorded in primary care are a rich resource and linkage could provide near real-time information to supplement trials and an efficient and cost-effective mechanism for long-term follow-up. In addition, standardised primary care data extracts could form part of RCT recruitment and conduct. However, this is at present limited by the variable quality and fragmentation of primary care data.

Household presentation of influenza and acute respiratory illnesses to a primary care sentinel network: retrospective database studies (2013-2018).

BACKGROUND: Direct observation of the household spread of influenza and respiratory infections is limited; much of our understanding comes from mathematical models. The study aims to determine household incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections within a primary care routine data and identify factors associated with the diseases' incidence. METHODS: We conducted two five-year retrospective analyses of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections using the England Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network database; a cross-sectional study reporting incident rate ratio (IRR) from a negative binomial model and a retrospective cohort study, using a shared gamma frailty survival model, reporting hazard ratios (HR). We reported the following household characteristics: children < 5 years old, each extra household member, gender, ethnicity (reference white), chronic disease, pregnancy, and rurality. RESULTS: The IRR where there was a child < 5 years were 1·62 (1·38-1·89, p < 0·0001), 2·40 (2.04-2.83, p < 0·0001) and 4·46 (3.79-5.255, p < 0·0001) for ILI, LRTI and URTI respectively. IRR also increased with household size, rurality and presentations and by female gender, compared to male. Household incidence of URTI and LRTI changed little between years whereas influenza did and were greater in years with lower vaccine effectiveness. The HR where there was a child < 5 years were 2·34 (95%CI 1·88-2·90, p < 0·0001), 2·97 (95%CI 2·76-3·2, p < 0·0001) and 10·32 (95%CI 10.04-10.62, p < 0·0001) for ILI, LRTI and URTI respectively. HR were increased with female gender, rurality, and increasing household size. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of household incidence can be measured from routine data and may provide insights for the modelling of disease transmission and public health policy.

An ontological approach to identifying cases of chronic kidney disease from routine primary care data: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Accurately identifying cases of chronic kidney disease (CKD) from primary care data facilitates the management of patients, and is vital for surveillance and research purposes. Ontologies provide a systematic and transparent basis for clinical case definition and can be used to identify clinical codes relevant to all aspects of CKD care and its diagnosis. METHODS: We used routinely collected primary care data from the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. A domain ontology was created and presented in Ontology Web Language (OWL). The identification and staging of CKD was then carried out using two parallel approaches: (1) clinical coding consistent with a diagnosis of CKD; (2) laboratory-confirmed CKD, based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or the presence of proteinuria. RESULTS: The study cohort comprised of 1.2 million individuals aged 18 years and over. 78,153 (6.4%) of the population had CKD on the basis of an eGFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73m2, and a further 7366 (0.6%) individuals were identified as having CKD due to proteinuria. 19,504 (1.6%) individuals without laboratory-confirmed CKD had a clinical code consistent with the diagnosis. In addition, a subset of codes allowed for 1348 (0.1%) individuals receiving renal replacement therapy to be identified. CONCLUSIONS: Finding cases of CKD from primary care data using an ontological approach may have greater sensitivity than less comprehensive methods, particularly for identifying those receiving renal replacement therapy or with CKD stages 1 or 2. However, the possibility of inaccurate coding may limit the specificity of this method.

Uptake and impact of vaccinating primary school-age children against influenza: experiences of a live attenuated influenza vaccine programme, England, 2015/16.

The 2015/16 influenza season was the third season of the introduction of an intra-nasally administered live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) for children in England. All children aged 2‒6 years were offered LAIV, and in addition, a series of geographically discrete areas piloted vaccinating school-age children 7‒11 years old. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was the dominant circulating strain during 2015/16 followed by influenza B. We measured influenza vaccine uptake and the overall and indirect effect of vaccinating children of primary school -age, by comparing cumulative disease incidence in targeted and non-targeted age groups in vaccine pilot and non-pilot areas in England. Uptake of 57.9% (range: 43.6-72.0) was achieved in the five pilot areas for children aged 5‒11 years. In pilot areas, cumulative emergency department respiratory attendances, influenza-confirmed hospitalisations and intensive care unit admissions were consistently lower, albeit mostly non-significantly, in targeted and non-targeted age groups compared with non-pilot areas. Effect sizes were less for adults and more severe endpoints. Vaccination of healthy primary school-age children with LAIV at moderately high levels continues to be associated with population-level reductions in influenza-related respiratory illness. Further work to evaluate the population-level impact of the programme is required.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine for adults and children in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care in the United Kingdom: 2015/16 end-of-season results.

The United Kingdom (UK) is in the third season of introducing universal paediatric influenza vaccination with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The 2015/16 season in the UK was initially dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and then influenza of B/Victoria lineage, not contained in that season's adult trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). Overall adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 52.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 41.0-61.6) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultation, 54.5% (95% CI: 41.6-64.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 54.2% (95% CI: 33.1-68.6) against influenza B. In 2-17 year-olds, adjusted VE for LAIV was 57.6% (95% CI: 25.1 to 76.0) against any influenza, 81.4% (95% CI: 39.6-94.3) against influenza B and 41.5% (95% CI: -8.5 to 68.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates demonstrate moderate to good levels of protection, particularly against influenza B in children, but relatively less against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Despite lineage mismatch in the trivalent IIV, adults younger than 65 years were still protected against influenza B. These results provide reassurance for the UK to continue its influenza immunisation programme planned for 2016/17.

Deploying an asthma dashboard to support quality improvement across a nationally representative sentinel network of 7.6 million people in England.

Every year, there are ~100,000 hospital admissions for asthma in the UK, many of which are potentially preventable. Evidence suggests that carefully conceptualised and implemented audit and feedback (A&F) cycles have the potential to improve clinical outcomes for those with chronic conditions. We wanted to investigate the technical feasibility of developing a near-real time asthma dashboard to support A&F interventions for asthma management in primary care. We extracted cross-sectional data on asthma from 756 participating GP practices in the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP RSC) database in England comprising 7.6 million registered people. Summary indicators for a GP practice were compared to all participating RCGP RSC practices using practice-level data, for the week 6-12th-Mar-2023. A weekly, automated asthma dashboard with features that can support electronic-A&F cycles that compared key asthma indicators for a GP practice to RCGP RSC could be created ( https://tinyurl.com/3ydtrt85 ): 12-weeks-incidence 0.4% vs 0.4%, annual prevalence 6.1% vs 6.7%, inhaled relievers to preventer 1.2 vs 1.1, self-management plan given 83.4% vs 60.8%, annual reviews 36.8% vs 57.3%, prednisolone prescriptions 2.0% vs 3.2%, influenza vaccination 56.6% vs 55.5%, pneumococcal vaccination ever (aged ≥65 years) 90.2% vs 84.1% and current smokers 14.9% vs 14.8%. Across the RCGP RSC, the rate of hospitalisations was 0.024%; comparative data had to be suppressed for the study practice because of small numbers. We have successfully created an automated near real-time asthma dashboard that can be used to support A&F initiatives to improve asthma care and outcomes in primary care.

The Relationship between Serum Sodium Concentration and Albuminuria: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Lowering dietary salt intake reduces albuminuria, an early marker of renal damage and a sensitive predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. The mechanisms underlying this effect are uncertain but small changes in serum sodium concentration may be important: this retrospective cohort study investigated the hypothesis that higher serum sodium concentration is a risk factor for albuminuria (defined as a urine albumin:creatinine ratio [UACR], ≥3 mg/mmol). METHODS: Primary care data from the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre were used to identify 47,294 individuals with a UACR result available between April 2010 and March 2015, and no known albuminuria prior to this. Exclusion criteria were missing or abnormal serum sodium concentration at baseline (<135 or >146 mmol/L); age <18 years; diabetes mellitus; decompensated liver disease; heart failure; and stage 5 chronic kidney disease. RESULTS: After adjustment for known risk factors, there was a significant "U-shaped" relationship between serum sodium concentration and albuminuria. The lowest risk was associated with a serum sodium of 138-140 mmol/L. In comparison, the risk of albuminuria was 18% higher with a serum sodium of 135-137 mmol/L and 19% higher with a serum sodium of 144-146 mmol/L. There was no association between serum sodium concentration and blood pressure. CONCLUSION: The finding of a positive association between higher serum sodium concentration and albuminuria is in support of the hypothesis, but the inverse relationship between serum sodium concentration and albuminuria at lower concentrations warrants further explanation.

Modifiable risk factors for asthma exacerbations during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based repeated cross-sectional study using the Research and Surveillance Centre primary care database.

Background: There were substantial reductions in asthma exacerbations during the COVID-19 pandemic for reasons that remain poorly understood. We investigated changes in modifiable risk factors which might help explain the reductions in asthma exacerbations. Methods: Multilevel generalised linear mixed models were fitted to examine changes in modifiable risk factors for asthma exacerbations during 2020-2022, compared to pre-pandemic year (2019), using observational, routine data from general practices in the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. Asthma exacerbations were defined as any of GP recorded: asthma exacerbations, prescriptions of prednisolone, accident and emergency department attendance or hospitalisation for asthma. Modifiable risk factors of interest were ownership of asthma self-management plan, asthma annual review, inhaled-corticosteroid (ICS) prescriptions, influenza vaccinations and respiratory-tract-infections (RTI). Findings: Compared with 2019 (n = 550,995), in 2020 (n = 565,956) and 2022 (n = 562,167) (p < 0.05): asthma exacerbations declined from 67.1% to 51.9% and 61.1%, the proportion of people who had: asthma exacerbations reduced from 20.4% to 15.1% and 18.5%, asthma self-management plans increased from 28.6% to 37.7% and 55.9%; ICS prescriptions increased from 69.9% to 72.0% and 71.1%; influenza vaccinations increased from 14.2% to 25.4% and 55.3%; current smoking declined from 15.0% to 14.5% and 14.7%; lower-RTI declined from 10.5% to 5.3% and 8.1%; upper-RTI reduced from 10.7% to 5.8% and 7.6%. There was cluster effect of GP practices on asthma exacerbations (p = 0.001). People with asthma were more likely (p < 0.05) to have exacerbations if they had LRTI (seven times(x)), had URTI and ILI (both twice), were current smokers (1.4x), PPV vaccinated (1.3x), seasonal flu vaccinated (1.01x), took ICS (1.3x), had asthma reviews (1.09x). People with asthma were less likely to have exacerbations if they had self-management plan (7%), and were partially (4%) than fully COVID-19 vaccinated. Interpretation: We have identified changes in modifiable risk factors for asthma exacerbation that need to be maintained in the post-pandemic era. Funding: Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research and Health Data Research UK.

A Profile of Influenza Vaccine Coverage for 2019-2020: Database Study of the English Primary Care Sentinel Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Innovation in seasonal influenza vaccine development has resulted in a wider range of formulations becoming available. Understanding vaccine coverage across populations including the timing of administration is important when evaluating vaccine benefits and risks. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to report the representativeness, uptake of influenza vaccines, different formulations of influenza vaccines, and timing of administration within the English Primary Care Sentinel Cohort (PCSC). METHODS: We used the PCSC of the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. We included patients of all ages registered with PCSC member general practices, reporting influenza vaccine coverage between September 1, 2019, and January 29, 2020. We identified influenza vaccination recipients and characterized them by age, clinical risk groups, and vaccine type. We reported the date of influenza vaccination within the PCSC by International Standard Organization (ISO) week. The representativeness of the PCSC population was compared with population data provided by the Office for National Statistics. PCSC influenza vaccine coverage was compared with published UK Health Security Agency's national data. We used paired t tests to compare populations, reported with 95% CI. RESULTS: The PCSC comprised 7,010,627 people from 693 general practices. The study population included a greater proportion of people aged 18-49 years (2,982,390/7,010,627, 42.5%; 95% CI 42.5%-42.6%) compared with the Office for National Statistics 2019 midyear population estimates (23,219,730/56,286,961, 41.3%; 95% CI 4.12%-41.3%; P<.001). People who are more deprived were underrepresented and those in the least deprived quintile were overrepresented. Within the study population, 24.7% (1,731,062/7,010,627; 95% CI 24.7%-24.7%) of people of all ages received an influenza vaccine compared with 24.2% (14,468,665/59,764,928; 95% CI 24.2%-24.2%; P<.001) in national data. The highest coverage was in people aged ≥65 years (913,695/1,264,700, 72.3%; 95% CI 72.2%-72.3%). The proportion of people in risk groups who received an influenza vaccine was also higher; for example, 69.8% (284,280/407,228; 95% CI 69.7%-70%) of people with diabetes in the PCSC received an influenza vaccine compared with 61.2% (983,727/1,607,996; 95% CI 61.1%-61.3%; P<.001) in national data. In the PCSC, vaccine type and brand information were available for 71.8% (358,365/498,923; 95% CI 71.7%-72%) of people aged 16-64 years and 81.9% (748,312/913,695; 95% CI 81.8%-82%) of people aged ≥65 years, compared with 23.6% (696,880/2,900,000) and 17.8% (1,385,888/7,700,000), respectively, of the same age groups in national data. Vaccination commenced during ISO week 35, continued until ISO week 3, and peaked during ISO week 41. The in-week peak in vaccination administration was on Saturdays. CONCLUSIONS: The PCSC's sociodemographic profile was similar to the national population and captured more data about risk groups, vaccine brands, and batches. This may reflect higher data quality. Its capabilities included reporting precise dates of administration. The PCSC is suitable for undertaking studies of influenza vaccine coverage.

COVID-19 and influenza vaccine uptake among pregnant women in national cohorts of England and Wales.

Vaccines against COVID-19 and influenza can reduce the adverse outcomes caused by infections during pregnancy, but vaccine uptake among pregnant women has been suboptimal. We examined the COVID-19 and influenza vaccine uptake and disparities in pregnant women during the COVID-19 pandemic to inform vaccination interventions. We used data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre database in England and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales. The uptake of at least one dose of vaccine was 40.2% for COVID-19 and 41.8% for influenza among eligible pregnant women. We observed disparities in COVID-19 and influenza vaccine uptake, with socioeconomically deprived and ethnic minority groups showing lower vaccination rates. The suboptimal uptake of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines, especially in those from socioeconomically deprived backgrounds and Black, mixed or other ethnic groups, underscores the necessity for interventions to reduce vaccine hesitancy and enhance acceptance in pregnant women.

Qualitative evaluation of a molecular point-of-care testing study for influenza in UK primary care.

BACKGROUND: Influenza contributes to the surge in winter infections and the consequent winter pressures on the health service. Molecular point-of-care testing(POCT) for influenza might improve patient management by providing rapid and accurate clinical diagnosis to inform the timely initiation of antiviral therapy and reduce unnecessary admissions and antibiotics use. AIM: To explore factors that influence the adoption or non-adoption of POCT in English general practices and provide insights to enable its integration into routine practice workflows. DESIGN & SETTING: A qualitative implementation evaluation was conducted in ten general practices within the English national sentinel network (Oxford-RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre), from April to July 2023. METHOD: Using the nonadoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread, and sustainability framework, data collection and analysis were conducted across ten practices. We made ethnographic observations of the POCT workflow and surveyed the practice staff for their perspectives on POCT implementation. Data were analysed using a mix of descriptive statistics, graphical modelling techniques and framework approach. RESULTS: Ethnographic observations identified two modes of POCT integration into practice workflow: 1) clinician POCT workflow - typically involving batch testing due to time constraints, 2) research nurse/healthcare assistant POCT workflow - characterised by immediate testing of individual patients. Survey indicated that most primary care staff considered the POCT training offered was sufficient, and these practices were ready for change and had the capacity and resources to integrate POCT in workflows. CONCLUSION: General practices should demonstrate flexibility in the workflow and workforce they deploy to integrate POCT into routine clinical workflow.

Influenza vaccination during the 2021/22 season: A data-linkage test-negative case-control study of effectiveness against influenza requiring emergency care in England and serological analysis of primary care patients.

We present England 2021/22 end-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against laboratory confirmed influenza related emergency care use in children aged 1-17 and in adults aged 50+, and serological findings in vaccinated vs unvaccinated adults by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Influenza vaccination has been routinely offered to all children aged 2-10 years and adults aged 65 years + in England. In 2021/22, the offer was extended to children to age 15 years, and adults aged 50-64 years. Influenza activity rose during the latter half of the 2021/22 season, while remaining comparatively low due to COVID-19 pandemic control measures. Influenza A(H3N2) strains predominated. A test negative design was used to estimate aVE by vaccine type. Cases and controls were identified within a sentinel laboratory surveillance system. Vaccine histories were obtained from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS), an influenza and COVID-19 vaccine registry. These were linked to emergency department presentations (excluding accidents) with respiratory swabbing ≤ 14 days before or ≤ 7 days after presentation. Amongst adults, 423 positive and 32,917 negative samples were eligible for inclusion, and 145 positive and 6,438 negative samples among children. Those admitted to hospital were further identified. In serology against the circulating A(H3N2) A/Bangladesh/4005/2020-like strain, 61 % of current season adult vaccinees had titres ≥ 1:40 compared to 17 % of those unvaccinated in 2020/21 or 2021/22 (p < 0.001). We found good protection from influenza vaccination against influenza requiring emergency care in children (72.7 % [95 % CI 52.7, 84.3 %]) and modest effectiveness in adults (26.1 % [95 % CI 4.5, 42.8 %]). Adult VE was higher for A(H1N1) (81 % [95 % CI 50, 93 %]) than A(H3N2) (33 % [95 % CI 6, 53 %]). Consistent protection was observable across preschool, primary and secondary school aged children. Imperfect test specificity combined with very low prevalence may have biased estimates towards null. With limited influenza circulation, the study could not determine differences by vaccine types.

Phenotype execution and modeling architecture to support disease surveillance and real-world evidence studies: English sentinel network evaluation.

Objective: To evaluate Phenotype Execution and Modelling Architecture (PhEMA), to express sharable phenotypes using Clinical Quality Language (CQL) and intensional Systematised Nomenclature of Medicine (SNOMED) Clinical Terms (CT) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) valuesets, for exemplar chronic disease, sociodemographic risk factor, and surveillance phenotypes. Method: We curated 3 phenotypes: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), excessive alcohol use, and incident influenza-like illness (ILI) using CQL to define clinical and administrative logic. We defined our phenotypes with valuesets, using SNOMED's hierarchy and expression constraint language, and CQL, combining valuesets and adding temporal elements where needed. We compared the count of cases found using PhEMA with our existing approach using convenience datasets. We assessed our new approach against published desiderata for phenotypes. Results: The T2DM phenotype could be defined as 2 intensionally defined SNOMED valuesets and a CQL script. It increased the prevalence from 7.2% to 7.3%. Excess alcohol phenotype was defined by valuesets that added qualitative clinical terms to the quantitative conceptual definitions we currently use; this change increased prevalence by 58%, from 1.2% to 1.9%. We created an ILI valueset with SNOMED concepts, adding a temporal element using CQL to differentiate new episodes. This increased the weekly incidence in our convenience sample (weeks 26-38) from 0.95 cases to 1.11 cases per 100 000 people. Conclusions: Phenotypes for surveillance and research can be described fully and comprehensibly using CQL and intensional FHIR valuesets. Our use case phenotypes identified a greater number of cases, whilst anticipated from excessive alcohol this was not for our other variable. This may have been due to our use of SNOMED CT hierarchy. Our new process fulfilled a greater number of phenotype desiderata than the one that we had used previously, mostly in the modeling domain. More work is needed to implement that sharing and warehousing domains.

Risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after autumn 2022 COVID-19 booster vaccinations: a pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies involving 7.4 million adults in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

Background: UK COVID-19 vaccination policy has evolved to offering COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at increased risk of severe Illness from COVID-19. Building on our analyses of vaccine effectiveness of first, second and initial booster doses, we aimed to identify individuals at increased risk of severe outcomes (i.e., COVID-19 related hospitalisation or death) post the autumn 2022 booster dose. Methods: We undertook a national population-based cohort analysis across all four UK nations through linked primary care, vaccination, hospitalisation and mortality data. We included individuals who received autumn 2022 booster doses of BNT162b2 (Comirnaty) or mRNA-1273 (Spikevax) during the period September 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022 to investigate the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between demographic and clinical factors and severe COVID-19 outcomes after the autumn booster dose. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), deprivation, urban/rural areas and comorbidities. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then conducted a fixed-effect meta-analysis to combine results across the four UK nations. Findings: Between September 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022, 7,451,890 individuals ≥18 years received an autumn booster dose. 3500 had severe COVID-19 outcomes (2.9 events per 1000 person-years). Being male (male vs female, aHR 1.41 (1.32-1.51)), older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; 10.43 (8.06-13.50)), underweight (BMI <18.5 vs BMI 25.0-29.9; 2.94 (2.51-3.44)), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9.45 (8.15-10.96)) had a higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death after the autumn booster dose. Those with a larger household size (≥11 people within household vs 2 people; 1.56 (1.23-1.98)) and from more deprived areas (most deprived vs least deprived quintile; 1.35 (1.21-1.51)) had modestly higher risks. We also observed at least a two-fold increase in risk for those with various chronic neurological conditions, including Down's syndrome, immunodeficiency, chronic kidney disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, or cardiovascular disease. Interpretation: Males, older individuals, underweight individuals, those with an increasing number of comorbidities, from a larger household or more deprived areas, and those with specific underlying health conditions remained at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the autumn 2022 vaccine booster dose. There is now a need to focus on these risk groups for investigating immunogenicity and efficacy of further booster doses or therapeutics. Funding: National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.

AZD1222 effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in individuals with comorbidity or frailty: The RAVEN cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite being prioritized during initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout, vulnerable individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or death) remain underrepresented in vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. The RAVEN cohort study (NCT05047822) assessed AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCov-19) two-dose primary series VE in vulnerable populations. METHODS: Using the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub, linked to secondary care, death registration, and COVID-19 datasets in England, COVID-19 outcomes in 2021 were compared in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals matched on age, sex, region, and multimorbidity. RESULTS: Over 4.5 million AZD1222 recipients were matched (mean follow-up ∼5 months); 68% were ≥50 years, 57% had high multimorbidity. Overall, high VE against severe COVID-19 was demonstrated, with lower VE observed in vulnerable populations. VE against hospitalization was higher in the lowest multimorbidity quartile (91.1%; 95% CI: 90.1, 92.0) than the highest quartile (80.4%; 79.7, 81.1), and among individuals ≥65 years, higher in the 'fit' (86.2%; 84.5, 87.6) than the frailest (71.8%; 69.3, 74.2). VE against hospitalization was lowest in immunosuppressed individuals (64.6%; 60.7, 68.1). CONCLUSIONS: Based on integrated and comprehensive UK health data, overall population-level VE with AZD1222 was high. VEs were notably lower in vulnerable groups, particularly the immunosuppressed.

Interim 2023/2024 Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Primary and Secondary Care in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: We report 2023/2024 season interim influenza vaccine effectiveness for three studies, namely, primary care in Great Britain, hospital settings in Scotland and hospital settings in England. METHODS: A test negative design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness. RESULTS: Estimated vaccine effectiveness against all influenzas ranged from 63% (95% confidence interval 46 to 75%) to 65% (41 to 79%) among children aged 2-17, from 36% (20 to 49%) to 55% (43 to 65%) among adults 18-64 and from 40% (29 to 50%) to 55% (32 to 70%) among adults aged 65 and over. CONCLUSIONS: During a period of co-circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in the United Kingdom, evidence for effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in both children and adults was found.

End of 2022/23 Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Primary Care in Great Britain.

BACKGROUND: The 2022/23 influenza season in the United Kingdom saw the return of influenza to prepandemic levels following two seasons with low influenza activity. The early season was dominated by A(H3N2), with cocirculation of A(H1N1), reaching a peak late December 2022, while influenza B circulated at low levels during the latter part of the season. From September to March 2022/23, influenza vaccines were offered, free of charge, to all aged 2-13 (and 14-15 in Scotland and Wales), adults up to 49 years of age with clinical risk conditions and adults aged 50 and above across the mainland United Kingdom. METHODS: End-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates against sentinel primary-care attendance for influenza-like illness, where influenza infection was laboratory confirmed, were calculated using the test negative design, adjusting for potential confounders. METHODS: Results In the mainland United Kingdom, end-of-season VE against all laboratory-confirmed influenza for all those > 65 years of age, most of whom received adjuvanted quadrivalent vaccines, was 30% (95% CI: -6% to 54%). VE for those aged 18-64, who largely received cell-based vaccines, was 47% (95% CI: 37%-56%). Overall VE for 2-17 year olds, predominantly receiving live attenuated vaccines, was 66% (95% CI: 53%-76%). CONCLUSION: The paper provides evidence of moderate influenza VE in 2022/23.