Identifying a therapeutic window of opportunity for people living with primary sclerosing cholangitis: Embryology and the overlap of inflammatory bowel disease with immune-mediated liver injury.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a variably progressive, fibrosis-causing autoimmune disorder of the intrahepatic and extrahepatic bile ducts of unclear etiology. PSC is commonly (in 60%-90% of cases) associated with an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) like PSC-IBD and less commonly with an autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) like PSC-AIH or AIH-overlap disorder. Hepatologists and Gastroenterologists often consider these combined conditions as distinctly different from the classical forms in isolation. Here, we review recent epidemiologic observations and highlight that PSC-IBD and PSC-AIH overlap appear to represent aspects of a common PSC clinico-pathological pathway and manifest in an age-of-presentation-dependent manner. Particularly from the pediatric experience, we hypothesize that all cases of PSC likely originate from a complex "Early PSC"-"IBD"-"AIH" overlap in which PSC defines the uniquely and variably associated "AIH" and "IBD" components along an individualized lifetime continuum. We speculate that a distinctly unique, "diverticular autoimmunity" against the embryonic cecal- and hepatic diverticulum-derived tissues may be the origin of this combined syndrome, where "AIH" and "IBD" variably commence then variably fade while PSC progresses with age. Our hypothesis provides an explanation for the age-dependent variation in the presentation and progression of PSC. This is critical for the optimal targeting of studies into PSC etiopathogenesis and emphasizes the concept of a "developmental window of opportunity for therapeutic mitigation" in what is currently recognized as an irreversible disease process. The discovery of such a window would be critically important for the targeting of interventions, both the administration of current therapies and therapeutic trial planning.

Primary biliary cholangitis drug evaluation and regulatory approval: Where do we go from here?

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease. The management landscape was transformed 20 years ago with the advent of ursodeoxycholic acid. Up to 40% of patients do not, however, respond adequately to ursodeoxycholic acid and therefore still remain at risk of disease progression to cirrhosis. The introduction of obeticholic acid as a second-line therapy for patients failing ursodeoxycholic acid has improved outcomes for patients with PBC. There remains, however, a need for better treatment for patients at higher risk. The greatest threat facing our efforts to improve treatment in PBC is, paradoxically, the regulatory approval model providing conditional marketing authorization for new drugs based on biochemical markers on the condition that long-term, randomized placebo-controlled outcome trials are performed to confirm efficacy. As demonstrated by the COBALT confirmatory study with obeticholic acid, it is difficult to retain patients in the required follow-on confirmatory placebo-controlled PBC outcome trials when a licensed drug is commercially available. New PBC therapies in development, such as the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor agonists, face even greater challenges in demonstrating outcome benefit through randomized placebo-controlled studies once following conditional marketing authorization, as there will be even more treatment options available. A recently published EMA Reflection Paper provides some guidance on the regulatory pathway to full approval but fails to recognize the importance of real-world data in providing evidence of outcome benefit in rare diseases. Here we explore the impact of the EMA reflection paper on PBC therapy and offer pragmatic solutions for generating evidence of long-term outcomes through real-world data collection.

Adequate versus deep response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: To what extent and under what conditions is normal alkaline phosphatase level associated with complication-free survival gain?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Normal alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels in ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-treated patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are associated with better long-term outcome. However, second-line therapies are currently recommended only when ALP levels remain above 1.5 times the upper limit of normal (×ULN) after 12-month UDCA. We assessed whether, in patients considered good responders to UDCA, normal ALP levels were associated with significant survival gains. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1047 patients with PBC who attained an adequate response to UDCA according to Paris-2 criteria. Time to liver-related complications, liver transplantation, or death was assessed using adjusted restricted mean survival time (RMST) analysis. The overall incidence rate of events was 17.0 (95% CI: 13.7-21.1) per 1000 out of 4763.2 patient-years. On the whole population, normal serum ALP values (but not normal gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), or aspartate aminotransferase (AST); or total bilirubin < 0.6 ×ULN) were associated with a significant absolute complication-free survival gain at 10 years (mean 7.6 months, 95% CI: 2.7 - 12.6 mo.; p = 0.003). In subgroup analysis, this association was significant in patients with a liver stiffness measurement ≥ 10 kPa and/or age ≤ 62 years, with a 10-year absolute complication-free survival gain of 52.8 months (95% CI: 45.7-59.9, p < 0.001) when these 2 conditions were met. CONCLUSIONS: PBC patients with an adequate response to UDCA and persistent ALP elevation between 1.1 and 1.5 ×ULN, particularly those with advanced fibrosis and/or who are sufficiently young, remain at risk of poor outcome. Further therapeutic efforts should be considered for these patients.

Prognostic scores for ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients predict graft loss and mortality in recurrent primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrent primary biliary cholangitis (rPBC) develops in approximately 30% of patients and negatively impacts graft and overall patient survival after liver transplantation (LT). There is a lack of data regarding the response rate to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in rPBC. We evaluated a large, international, multi-center cohort to assess the performance of PBC scores in predicting the risk of graft and overall survival after LT in patients with rPBC. METHODS: A total of 332 patients with rPBC after LT were evaluated from 28 centers across Europe, North and South America. The median age at the time of rPBC was 58.0 years [IQR 53.2-62.6], and 298 patients (90%) were female. The biochemical response was measured with serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin, and Paris-2, GLOBE and UK-PBC scores at 1 year after UDCA initiation. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years [IQR 4.3-12.9] after rPBC diagnosis, 52 patients (16%) had graft loss and 103 (31%) died. After 1 year of UDCA initiation the histological stage at rPBC (hazard ratio [HR] 3.97, 95% CI 1.36-11.55, p = 0.01), use of prednisone (HR 3.18, 95% CI 1.04-9.73, p = 0.04), ALP xULN (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-2.01, p <0.001), Paris-2 criteria (HR 4.14, 95% CI 1.57-10.92, p = 0.004), GLOBE score (HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.71-4.66, p <0.001), and the UK-PBC score (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09, p <0.001) were associated with graft survival in the multivariate analysis. Similar results were observed for overall survival. CONCLUSION: Patients with rPBC and disease activity, as indicated by standard PBC risk scores, have impaired outcomes, supporting efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant PBC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: One in three people who undergo liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis develop recurrent disease in their new liver. Patients with recurrent primary biliary cholangitis and incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid, according to conventional prognostic scores, have worse clinical outcomes, with higher risk of graft loss and mortality in similar ways to the disease before liver transplantation. Our results supportsupport efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant primary biliary cholangitis.

Dynamics of Liver Stiffness Measurement and Clinical Course of Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), static liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has proven prognostic value. However, the added prognostic value of LSM time course in this disease remains uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an international retrospective cohort study among patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid and followed by vibration-controlled transient elastography between 2003 and 2022. Using joint modeling, the association of LSM trajectory and the incidence of serious clinical events (SCE), defined as cirrhosis complications, liver transplantation, or death, was quantified using the hazard ratio and its confidence interval. RESULTS: A total of 6362 LSMs were performed in 3078 patients (2007 on ursodeoxycholic acid alone; 13% with cirrhosis), in whom 316 SCE occurred over 14,445 person-years (median follow-up, 4.2 years; incidence rate, 21.9 per 1000 person-years). LSM progressed in 59% of patients (mean, 0.39 kPa/year). After adjusting for prognostic factors at baseline, including LSM, any relative change in LSM was associated with a significant variation in SCE risk (P < .001). For example, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) associated with a 20% annual variation in LSM were 2.13 (1.89-2.45) for the increase and 0.40 (0.33-0.46) for the decrease. The association between LSM trajectory and SCE risk persisted regardless of treatment response or duration, when patients with cirrhosis were excluded, and when only death or liver transplantation was considered. CONCLUSIONS: Tracking longitudinal changes in LSM using vibration-controlled transient elastography provides valuable insights into PBC prognosis, offering a robust predictive measure for the risk of SCE. LSM could be used as a clinically relevant surrogate end point in PBC clinical trials.

COBALT: A Confirmatory Trial of Obeticholic Acid in Primary Biliary Cholangitis With Placebo and External Controls.

INTRODUCTION: Obeticholic acid (OCA) treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) was conditionally approved in the phase 3 POISE trial. The COBALT confirmatory trial assessed whether clinical outcomes in patients with PBC improve with OCA therapy. METHODS: Patients randomized to OCA (5-10 mg) were compared with placebo (randomized controlled trial [RCT]) or external control (EC). The primary composite endpoint was time to death, liver transplant, model for end-stage liver disease score ≥15, uncontrolled ascites, or hospitalization for hepatic decompensation. A prespecified propensity score-weighted EC group was derived from a US healthcare claims database. RESULTS: In the RCT, the primary endpoint occurred in 28.6% of OCA (n = 168) and 28.9% of placebo patients (n = 166; intent-to-treat analysis hazard ratio [HR] = 1.01, 95% confidence interval = 0.68-1.51), but functional unblinding and crossover to commercial therapy occurred, especially in the placebo arm. Correcting for these using inverse probability of censoring weighting and as-treated analyses shifted the HR to favor OCA. In the EC (n = 1,051), the weighted primary endpoint occurred in 10.1% of OCA and 21.5% of non-OCA patients (HR = 0.39; 95% confidence interval = 0.22-0.69; P = 0.001). No new safety signals were identified in the RCT. DISCUSSION: Functional unblinding and treatment crossover, particularly in the placebo arm, confounded the intent-to-treat estimate of outcomes associated with OCA in the RCT. Comparison with the real-world EC showed that OCA treatment significantly reduced the risk of negative clinical outcomes. These analyses demonstrate the value of EC data in confirmatory trials and suggest that treatment with OCA improves clinical outcomes in patients with PBC.

Improving predictive accuracy in primary biliary cholangitis: A new genetic risk score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Genetic variants influence primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) risk. We established and tested an accurate polygenic risk score (PRS) using these variants. METHODS: Data from two Italian cohorts (OldIT 444 cases, 901 controls; NewIT 255 cases, 579 controls) were analysed. The latest international genome-wide meta-analysis provided effect size estimates. The PRS, together with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) status and sex, was included in an integrated risk model. RESULTS: Starting from 46 non-HLA genes, 22 variants were selected. PBC patients in the OldIT cohort showed a higher risk score than controls: -.014 (interquartile range, IQR, -.023, .005) versus -.022 (IQR -.030, -.013) (p < 2.2 × 10-16). For genetic-based prediction, the area under the curve (AUC) was .72; adding sex increased the AUC to .82. Validation in the NewIT cohort confirmed the model's accuracy (.71 without sex, .81 with sex). Individuals in the top group, representing the highest 25%, had a PBC risk approximately 14 times higher than that of the reference group (lowest 25%; p < 10-6). CONCLUSION: The combination of sex and a novel PRS accurately discriminated between PBC cases and controls. The model identified a subset of individuals at increased risk of PBC who might benefit from tailored monitoring.

Is there a correlation between prepartum anaemia and an increased likelihood of developing postpartum depression? A prospective observational study.

PURPOSE: Postpartum depression (PPD) represents a significant challenge to maternal and child health. Early screening for PPD is essential to ensure appropriate treatment and support. The present study aimed to assess whether maternal prepartum anaemia influences the likelihood of developing PPD within 3 days after delivery. METHODS: In collaboration with the Department of Psychiatry, a prospective observational study was carried out at the Gynaecology and Obstetrics Department of the University of Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli" in Naples. A total of 211 full-term pregnant women were enrolled, and their predelivery haemoglobin value was recorded. Women with gestational diabetes, hypertension, pre-eclampsia, intrauterine growth restriction, intellectual disability, or pre-existing diagnosis of psychotic spectrum disorder were excluded. Participants provided written informed consent to fill out the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) 3 days after delivery. EPDS cut-off score of ≥ 10 was used to identify women at risk of developing PPD. Statistical analysis was performed using Student's t test, the Wilcoxon Rank Sum test, and linear regression. RESULTS: The participants were categorized into 2 groups based on EPDS scores: EPDS < 10 (176 patients) or EPDS ≥ 10 (35 patients). The two groups showed homogeneity in terms of socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. The mean haemoglobin values of anaemic pregnant women in the EPDS ≤ 10 group (11.78 ± 1.39 g/dl) and the EPDS > 10 group (11.62 ± 1.27 g/dl) were not significantly different (p = 0.52). There was no significant correlation between the predelivery haemoglobin value and the EPDS postpartum score of < 10 or ≥ 10. The Wilcoxon Rank Sum test and the estimated coefficients of the linear regression model did not show any statistical relationship between continuous and binary haemoglobin values. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that maternal prepartum anaemia did not negatively impact the likelihood of developing postpartum depressive symptoms, in the first 3 days after delivery.

The phenotypic landscape of primary biliary cholangitis and autoimmune hepatitis variants.

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) stand as distinct diseases, yet occasionally intertwine with overlapping features, posing diagnostic and management challenges. This recognition traces back to the 1970s, with initial case reports highlighting this complexity. Diagnostic scoring systems like IAIHG and simplified criteria for AIH were introduced but are inherently limited in diagnosing variant syndromes. The so-called Paris criteria offer a diagnostic framework with high sensitivity and specificity for variant syndromes, although disagreements among international guidelines persist. Histological findings in AIH and PBC may exhibit overlapping features, rendering histology alone inadequate for a definitive diagnosis. Autoantibody profiles could be helpful, but similarly cannot be considered alone to reach a solid and consistent evaluation. Treatment strategies vary based on the predominant features observed. Individuals with overlapping characteristics favoring AIH ideally benefit from corticosteroids, while patients primarily manifesting PBC features should initially receive treatment with choleretic drugs like ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA).

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Exploring the landscape of steatotic liver disease in the general US population.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study is to explore the epidemiologic impact of the definition of steatotic liver disease (SLD) proposed by a multi-society (American Association for the Study of the Liver-the European Association for the Study of Liver Diseases-Asociación Latinoamericana para el Estudio del Hígado) Delphi consensus statement. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of US adults participating in the 2017-2020 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey who were evaluated by vibration-controlled transient elastography. Hepatic steatosis and fibrosis were diagnosed by the median value of controlled attenuation parameter and liver stiffness measurement using cut-offs of 274 dB/m and 8.0 kPa, respectively. Recently proposed criteria for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), MetALD (MASLD + significant alcohol consumption), MASLD-Viral hepatitis and cryptogenic SLD were applied. RESULTS: SLD was present in 42.1% (95% CI: 40.3-43.9) of the 3173 included participants. Among patients with SLD, 99.4% met the metabolic dysfunction definition. Moreover, 89.4%, 7.7%, 2.4%, 0.4% and 0.1% were defined as MASLD, MetALD, MASLD-Viral, alcoholic liver disease (ALD) (significant alcohol consumption without metabolic dysfunction) and cryptogenic, respectively. No patients without metabolic dysfunction had significant liver fibrosis, which was present in 15.2%, 9.5% and 19.5% of patients with MASLD, MetALD and MASLD-viral, respectively. Approximately, 90% of the overall adult US population could be diagnosed with metabolic dysfunction according to the consensus criteria. A high degree of concordance was found between MASLD and the previously proposed metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease definition. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic dysfunction is present in almost all patients with SLD in the United States. The new change in diagnostic criteria did not significantly impact disease prevalence.

Setanaxib, a first-in-class selective NADPH oxidase 1/4 inhibitor for primary biliary cholangitis: A randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a rare liver disease with significant unmet need for second-line/add-on treatments. Setanaxib, a NOX1/4 inhibitor, has shown anti-fibrotic effects in in vitro and animal studies. This phase 2, randomized, multicentre study investigated the efficacy and safety of setanaxib in patients with PBC. METHODS: Patients with ≥6 months of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment were randomized 1:1:1 to oral setanaxib 400 mg once daily (OD), twice daily (BID), or placebo, in addition to UDCA for 24 weeks. Other inclusion criteria included alkaline phosphatase (ALP) ≥1.5 × ULN and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) ≥1.5 × ULN. The primary endpoint was percentage change from baseline in GGT at Week 24; secondary endpoints included change from baseline in ALP, liver stiffness (LS; via transient elastography), fatigue at Week 24, and safety outcomes. p values compare setanaxib 400 mg BID and placebo groups. RESULTS: Of patients randomized (setanaxib 400 mg OD and BID: 38, and 36; placebo: 37), 104/111 completed Week 24. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) change in GGT to Week 24 was -4.9% (59.6%) for setanaxib 400 mg OD, -19.0% (28.9%) for setanaxib 400 mg BID, and -8.4% (21.5%) for placebo; p = .31. Patients treated with setanaxib 400 mg OD and BID showed decreased serum ALP levels from baseline to Week 24 (p = .002: setanaxib BID versus placebo). Patients treated with setanaxib 400 mg OD and BID showed mean (SD) percentage increases in LS to Week 24 of 3.3% (35.0%) and 7.9% (43.7%), versus 10.1% (33.1%) for placebo (p = .65). Changes in mean (SD) PBC-40 fatigue domain scores to Week 24 were +0.3% (24.9%) for setanaxib 400 mg OD, -9.9% (19.8%) for setanaxib 400 mg BID and +2.4% (23.1%) for placebo, p = .027. Two patients (one placebo, one setanaxib 400 mg BID) experienced serious treatment-emergent adverse events, deemed unrelated to study drug. CONCLUSIONS: The primary endpoint was not met. However, the secondary endpoints provide preliminary evidence for potential anti-cholestatic and anti-fibrotic effects in PBC, supporting the further evaluation of setanaxib in a future phase 2b/3 trial.

Patient-reported quality of care in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Management and follow-up strategies for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) vary. The aim of the present study was to assess patient-reported quality of care to identify the most important areas for improvement. METHODS: Data were collected via an online survey hosted on the EU Survey platform in 11 languages between October 2021 and January 2022. Questions were asked about the disease, symptoms, treatment, investigations and quality of care. RESULTS: In total, 798 nontransplanted people with PSC from 33 countries responded. Eighty-six per cent of respondents reported having had at least one symptom. Twenty-four per cent had never undergone an elastography, and 8% had not had a colonoscopy. Nearly half (49%) had never undergone a bone density scan. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) was used in 90-93% in France, Netherlands and Germany, and 49-50% in the United Kingdom and Sweden. Itch was common (60%), and 50% of those had received any medication. Antihistamines were taken by 27%, cholestyramine by 21%, rifampicin by 13% and bezafibrate by 6.5%. Forty-one per cent had been offered participation in a clinical trial or research. The majority (91%) reported that they were confident with their care although half of the individuals reported the need for more information on disease prognosis and diet. CONCLUSION: Symptom burden in PSC is high, and the most important areas of improvement are disease monitoring with more widespread use of elastography, bone density scan and appropriate treatment for itch. Personalised prognostic information should be offered to all individuals with PSC and include information on how they can improve their health.

Optimizing therapy in primary biliary cholangitis: Alkaline phosphatase at six months identifies one-year non-responders and predicts survival.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. METHODS: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. RESULTS: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82-1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72-3.69) at six months (p < .001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. CONCLUSIONS: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

European Society for Organ Transplantation (ESOT) Consensus Statement on Outcome Measures in Liver Transplantation According to Value-Based Health Care.

Liver transplantation is a highly complex, life-saving, treatment for many patients with advanced liver disease. Liver transplantation requires multidisciplinary teams, system-wide adaptations and significant investment, as well as being an expensive treatment. Several metrics have been proposed to monitor processes and outcomes, however these lack patient focus and do not capture all aspects of the process. Most of the reported outcomes do not capture those outcomes that matter to the patients. Adopting the principles of Value-Based Health Care (VBHC), may provide an opportunity to develop those metrics that matter to patients. In this article, we present a Consensus Statement on Outcome Measures in Liver Transplantation following the principles of VBHC, developed by a dedicated panel of experts under the auspices of the European Society of Organ Transplantation (ESOT) Guidelines' Taskforce. The overarching goal is to provide a framework to facilitate the development of outcome measures as an initial step to apply the VMC paradigm to liver transplantation.

Liver stiffness measurement by vibration-controlled transient elastography improves outcome prediction in primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) has been shown to predict outcomes of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) in small-size studies. We aimed to validate the prognostic value of LSM in a large cohort study. METHODS: We performed an international, multicentre, retrospective follow-up study of 3,985 patients with PBC seen at 23 centres in 12 countries. Eligibility criteria included at least 1 reliable LSM by VCTE and a follow-up ≥ 1 year. Independent derivation (n = 2,740) and validation (n = 568) cohorts were built. The primary endpoint was time to poor clinical outcomes defined as liver-related complications, liver transplantation, or death. Hazard ratios (HRs) with CIs were determined using a time-dependent multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: LSM was independently associated with poor clinical outcomes in the derivation (5,324 LSMs, mean follow-up 5.0 ± 3.1 years) and validation (1,470 LSMs, mean follow-up 5.0 ± 2.8 years) cohorts: adjusted HRs (95% CI) per additional kPa were 1.040 (1.026-1.054) and 1.042 (1.029-1.056), respectively (p <0.0001 for both). Adjusted C-statistics (95% CI) at baseline were 0.83 (0.79-0.87) and 0.92 (0.89-0.95), respectively. Between 5 and 30 kPa, the log-HR increased as a monotonic function of LSM. The predictive value of LSM was stable in time. LSM improved the prognostic ability of biochemical response criteria, fibrosis scores, and prognostic scores. The 8 kPa and 15 kPa cut-offs optimally separated low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Forty percent of patients were at medium to high risk according to LSM. CONCLUSIONS: LSM by VCTE is a major, independent, validated predictor of PBC outcome. Its value as a surrogate endpoint for clinical benefit in PBC should be considered. LAY SUMMARY: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic autoimmune disease, wherein the body's immune system mistakenly attacks the bile ducts. PBC progresses gradually, so surrogate markers (markers that predict clinically relevant outcomes like the need for a transplant or death long before the event occurs) are often needed to expedite the drug development and approval process. Herein, we show that liver stiffness measurement is a strong predictor of clinical outcomes and could be a useful surrogate endpoint in PBC trials.

X Chromosome Contribution to the Genetic Architecture of Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Genome-wide association studies in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) have failed to find X chromosome (chrX) variants associated with the disease. Here, we specifically explore the chrX contribution to PBC, a sexually dimorphic complex autoimmune disease. METHODS: We performed a chrX-wide association study, including genotype data from 5 genome-wide association studies (from Italy, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Japan; 5244 case patients and 11,875 control individuals). RESULTS: Single-marker association analyses found approximately 100 loci displaying P < 5 × 10-4, with the most significant being a signal within the OTUD5 gene (rs3027490; P = 4.80 × 10-6; odds ratio [OR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.028-1.88; Japanese cohort). Although the transethnic meta-analysis evidenced only a suggestive signal (rs2239452, mapping within the PIM2 gene; OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.09-1.26; P = 9.93 × 10-8), the population-specific meta-analysis showed a genome-wide significant locus in East Asian individuals pointing to the same region (rs7059064, mapping within the GRIPAP1 gene; P = 6.2 × 10-9; OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.21-1.46). Indeed, rs7059064 tags a unique linkage disequilibrium block including 7 genes: TIMM17B, PQBP1, PIM2, SLC35A2, OTUD5, KCND1, and GRIPAP1, as well as a superenhancer (GH0XJ048933 within OTUD5) targeting all these genes. GH0XJ048933 is also predicted to target FOXP3, the main T-regulatory cell lineage specification factor. Consistently, OTUD5 and FOXP3 RNA levels were up-regulated in PBC case patients (1.75- and 1.64-fold, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This work represents the first comprehensive study, to our knowledge, of the chrX contribution to the genetics of an autoimmune liver disease and shows a novel PBC-related genome-wide significant locus.

Accuracy of Transient Elastography in Assessing Fibrosis at Diagnosis in Naïve Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Dual Cut-Off Approach.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Liver fibrosis holds a relevant prognostic meaning in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Noninvasive fibrosis evaluation using vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is routinely performed. However, there is limited evidence on its accuracy at diagnosis in PBC. We aimed to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of VCTE in assessing advanced fibrosis (AF) at disease presentation in PBC. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We collected data from 167 consecutive treatment-naïve PBC patients who underwent liver biopsy (LB) at diagnosis at six Italian centers. VCTE examinations were completed within 12 weeks of LB. Biopsies were scored by two blinded expert pathologists, according to the Ludwig system. Diagnostic accuracy was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for AF (Ludwig stage ≥III). Effects of biochemical and clinical parameters on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were appraised. The derivation cohort consisted of 126 patients with valid LSM and LB; VCTE identified patients with AF with an AUROC of 0.89. LSM cutoffs ≤6.5 and >11.0 kPa enabled to exclude and confirm, respectively, AF (negative predictive value [NPV] = 0.94; positive predictive value [PPV] = 0.89; error rate = 5.6%). These values were externally validated in an independent cohort of 91 PBC patients (NPV = 0.93; PPV = 0.89; error rate = 8.6%). Multivariable analysis found that the only parameter affecting LSM was fibrosis stage. No association was found with BMI and liver biochemistry. CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter study of treatment-naïve PBC patients, we identified two cutoffs (LSM ≤6.5 and >11.0 kPa) able to discriminate at diagnosis the absence or presence, respectively, of AF in PBC patients, with external validation. In patients with LSM between these two cutoffs, VCTE is not reliable and liver biopsy should be evaluated for accurate disease staging. BMI and liver biochemistry did not affect LSMs.

Machine learning in primary biliary cholangitis: A novel approach for risk stratification.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Machine learning (ML) provides new approaches for prognostication through the identification of novel subgroups of patients. We explored whether ML could support disease sub-phenotyping and risk stratification in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: ML was applied to an international dataset of PBC patients. The dataset was split into a derivation cohort (training set) and a validation cohort (validation set), and key clinical features were analysed. The outcome was a composite of liver-related death or liver transplantation. ML and standard survival analysis were performed. RESULTS: The training set was composed of 11,819 subjects, while the validation set was composed of 1,069 subjects. ML identified four clusters of patients characterized by different phenotypes and long-term prognosis. Cluster 1 (n = 3566) included patients with excellent prognosis, whereas Cluster 2 (n = 3966) consisted of individuals at worse prognosis differing from Cluster 1 only for albumin levels around the limit of normal. Cluster 3 (n = 2379) included young patients with florid cholestasis and Cluster 4 (n = 1908) comprised advanced cases. Further sub-analyses on the dynamics of albumin within the normal range revealed that ursodeoxycholic acid-induced increase of albumin >1.2 x lower limit of normal (LLN) is associated with improved transplant-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Unsupervised ML identified four novel groups of PBC patients with different phenotypes and prognosis and highlighted subtle variations of albumin within the normal range. Therapy-induced increase of albumin >1.2 x LLN should be considered a treatment goal.

The mode of dexamethasone decoration influences avidin-nucleic-acid-nano-assembly organ biodistribution and in vivo drug persistence.

Avidin-Nucleic-Acid-NanoASsemblies (ANANAS) possess natural tropism for the liver and, when loaded with dexamethasone, reduce clinical progression in an autoimmune hepatitis murine model. Here, we investigated the linker chemistry (hydrazide-hydrazone, Hz-Hz, or carbamate hydrazide-hydrazone, Cb-Hz bond) and length (long, 5 kDa PEG, or short, 5-6 carbons) in biotin-dexamethasone conjugates used for nanoparticle decoration through in vitro and in vivo studies. All four newly synthesized conjugates released the drug at acidic pH only. In vitro, the Hz-Hz and the PEG derivatives were less stable than the Cb-Hz and the short chain ones, respectively. Once injected in healthy mice, dexamethasone location in the PEGylated ANANAS outer layer favors liver penetration and resident macrophages uptake, while drug Hz-Hz, but not Cb-Hz, short spacing prolongs drug availability. In conclusion, the tight modulation of ANANAS decoration can significantly influence the host interaction, paving the way for the development of steroid nanoformulations suitable for different pharmacokinetic profiles.