Migration to the Maya Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala: Why place matters.

Virtually all migration research examines international migration or urbanization. Yet understudied rural migrants are of critical concern for environmental conservation and rural sustainable development. Despite the fact that a relatively small number of all migrants settle remote rural frontiers, these are the agents responsible for perhaps most of the tropical deforestation on the planet. Further, rural migrants are among the most destitute people worldwide in terms of economic and human development. While a host of research has investigated deforestation resulting from frontier migration, and a modest literature has emerged on frontier development, this article explores the necessary antecedent to tropical deforestation and poverty along agricultural frontiers: out-migration from origin areas. The data come from a 2000 survey with community leaders and key informants in 16 municipios of migrant origin to the Maya Biosphere Reserve (MBR), Petén, Guatemala. A common denominator among communities of migration origin to the Petén frontier was unequal resource access, usually land. Nevertheless, the factors driving resource scarcity were widely variable. Land degradation, land consolidation, and population growth prevailed in some communities but not in others. Despite similar exposure to community and regional level push factors, most people in the sampled communities did not out-migrate, suggesting that any one or combination of factors is not necessarily sufficient for out-migration.

Resource management and fertility in Mexico's Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve: Campos, cash, and contraception in the lobster-fishing village of Punta Allen.

This case study examines the link between marine resource management, and the universal contraceptive use among married couples in the lobster- fishing village of Punta Allen, located in the Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Several reasons appear to contribute to small desired and actual family sizes. Some of these include a medical clinic staff effective in promoting family planning, cooperative and private resource ownership, changing cultural attitudes, geographical limitations to population and economic growth, and a desire to conserve the environment for aesthetic and economic motives. Lastly, families desired to preserve a sustained balance between benefiting from lobster harvests today and safeguarding this marine resource for their children in the future.

Declining fertility on the frontier: the Ecuadorian Amazon.

This paper examines farm and household characteristics associated with a rapid fertility decline in a forest frontier of the Ecuadorian Amazon. The Amazon basin and other rainforests in the tropics are among the last frontiers in the ongoing global fertility transition. The pace of this transition along agricultural frontiers will likely have major implications for future forest transitions, rural development, and ultimately urbanization in frontier areas. The study here is based upon data from a probability sample of 172 women who lived on the same farm in 1990 and 1999. These data are from perhaps the first region-wide longitudinal survey of fertility in an agricultural frontier. Descriptive analyses indicate that fertility has plummeted in the region, which is surprising since it had remained high and unchanging among migrant colonists up to 1990. Thus only half of the women in our sample reported having a birth during the 1990-1999 time period, and most women report in 1999 that they do not want to have any more children. Analyses, controlling for women's age, corroborate hypotheses about land-fertility relations. For example, women from households with a legal land title had fewer than half as many children as those from households without a title. Large cattle (pasture) holdings and hiring laborers to work on the farm (which may replace household labor) are both related to socio-economic status that is traditionally associated with lower fertility. Similarly, distance to the nearest community center is positively related to fertility. Factors negatively related to fertility include increasing temporary out-migration of adult men or women from the household, asset accumulation, and access to electricity.

Gender-specific out-migration, deforestation and urbanization in the Ecuadorian Amazon.

The Ecuadorian Amazon, one of the richest reserves of biodiversity in the world, has faced one of the highest rates of deforestation of any Amazonian nation. Most of this forest elimination has been caused by agricultural colonization that followed the discovery of oil fields in 1967. Since the 1990s, an increasing process of urbanization has also engendered new patterns of population mobility within the Amazon, along with traditional ways by which rural settlers make their living. However, while very significant in its effects on deforestation, urbanization and regional development, population mobility within the Amazon has hardly been studied at all, as well as the distinct migration patterns between men and women. This paper uses a longitudinal dataset of 250 farm households in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon to understand differentials between men and women migrants to urban and rural destinations and between men and women non-migrants. First, we use hazard analysis based on the Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimator to obtain the cumulative probability that an individual living in the study area in 1990 or at time t, will out-migrated at some time, t+n, before 1999. Results indicate that out-migration to other rural areas in the Amazon, especially pristine areas is considerably greater than out-migration to the growing, but still incipient, Amazonian urban areas. Furthermore, men are more likely to out-migrate to rural areas than women, while the reverse occurs for urban areas. Difference-of-means tests were employed to examine potential factors accounting for differentials between male and female out-migration to urban and rural areas. Among the key results, relative to men younger women are more likely to out-migrate to urban areas; more difficult access from farms to towns and roads constrains women's migration; and access to new lands in the Amazon-an important cause of further deforestation-is more associated with male out-migration. Economic factors such as engagement in on-farm work, increasing resource scarcity-measured by higher population density at the farm and reduction in farm land on forest and crops-and increase in pasture land are more associated with male out-migration to rural areas. On the other hand, increasing resource scarcity, higher population density and weaker migration networks are more associated with female out-migration to urban areas. Thus, a "vicious cycle" is created: Pressure over land leads to deforestation in most or all farm forest areas and reduces the possibilities for further agricultural extensification (deforestation); out-migration, especially male out-migration, occurs to other rural or forest areas in the Amazon (with women being more likely to choose urban destinations); and, giving continuing population growth and pressures in the new settled areas, new pressures promote further out-migration to rural destinations and unabated deforestation.

Population Dynamics and Tropical Deforestation: State of the Debate and Conceptual Challenges.

What is the role of population in driving deforestation? This question was put forth as a discussion topic in the cyberseminar hosted by Population Environment Research Network (PERN) in Spring, 2003. Contributors from diverse backgrounds weighed in on the discussion, citing key factors in the population-deforestation nexus and suggesting further courses of action and research. Participants explored themes of their own choosing, with many coming to the forefront. Scale, time, and place-based effects were cited as areas in need of particular attention. Consumption patterns as the mechanism for spurring deforestation were discussed, drawing attention to the differential patterns associated with urban vs. rural demands on forest resources and land. The applicability of the IPAT formula and the influence of its component parts, affluence and technology, when operating in tandem with population, was debated. The relation of demographic factors to these pathways was critically examined. Institutional and governmental influence, such as infrastructure and policies affecting access and incentives, the valuation of resources, and institutional failures such as mismanagement and corruption emerged as a crucial set of factors. This article synthesizes the critical debates in the population-deforestation literature, makes suggestions for future paths of research, and discussed possible policy and direct action initiatives.

Proximate Population Factors and Deforestation in Tropical Agricultural Frontiers.

Forest conversion for agriculture expansion is the most salient signature of human occupation of the earth's land surface. Although population growth and deforestation are significantly associated at the global and regional scales, evidence for population links to deforestation at micro-scales-where people are actually clearing0020forests-is scant. Much of the planet's forest elimination is proceeding along tropical agricultural frontiers. This article examines the evolution of thought on population-environment theories relevant to deforestation in tropical agricultural frontiers. Four primary ways by which population dynamics interact with frontier forest conversion are examined: population density, fertility, and household demographic composition, and in-migration.

Migration Within the Frontier: The Second Generation Colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Since the 1970s, migration to the Amazon has led to a growing human presence and resulting dramatic changes in the physical landscape of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon frontier, including considerable deforestation. Over time, a second demographic phenomenon has emerged with the children of the original migrants leaving settler farms to set out on their own. The vast majority have remained in the Amazon region, some contributing to further changes in land use via rural-rural migration to establish new farms and others to incipient urbanization. This paper uses longitudinal, multi-scale data on settler colonists between 1990 and 1999 to analyze rural-rural and rural-urban migration among second-generation colonists within the region. Following a description of migrants and settlers in terms of their individual, household and community characteristics, a multinomial discrete-time hazard model is used to estimate the determinants of out-migration of the second generation settlers to both urban and rural areas. We find significant differences in the determinants of migration to the two types of destinations in personal characteristics, human capital endowments, stage of farm and household lifecycles, migration networks, and access to community resources and infrastructure. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications of migrants' choice of rural versus urban destinations.

[A multilevel analysis of population and deforestation in the Sierra de Lacandon National Park, Peten, Guatemala]. / Un análisis multinivel de población y deforestación en el Parque Nacional Sierra de Lacandón, Petén, Guatemala.

The paper examines depopulation factors associated with deforestation in the Natural park of the Sierra de Lacandón (PNSL), using multilevel regresión analysis.More than 10 percent of the park area has been deforested since the mid 1980s because of rural population growth and agricultural practices. By means of a two-level regression analysis the study use dem ographic and other household data to explain variations in deforested land in 241 agricultural estates in 8 communities of the PNSL. The methodology, not applied before in the tropics, takes into account spatial variations between communities and households. Multilvel regression allows for better results on the impacts of socioeconomic factors on deforestation, both at the community and at the household levels with important implications for development policies.

Cette étude a examiné les facteurs démographiques associés au phénomène de déforestation du Parc National Sierra de Lacandón (PNSL, Guatemala) en utilisant une analyse de régression multiniveau.Depuis le milieu des années 1980, plus de 10 % du PNSL a été déboisé par la croissance démographique de la population rurale, son besoin en surface et l'utilisation variée de la terre. En utilisant une analyse de régression multiple de deux niveaux, cette étude examine des données démographiques et plusieurs caractéristiques liées aux exploitations, dans le but d'expliquer les variations dans le parc défriché entre 241 propriétés agricoles dans huit communautés du PNSL. Cette méthodologie, nouvelle dans l'étude de l'usage du sol dans les tropiques, prend en compte la variation spatiale entre des communautés ainsi que des exploitations. En utilisant ces modèles de multiniveaux, on peut arriver à de meilleurs résultats concernant les impacts des facteurs au niveau des communautés et des exploitations concernant la déforestation, avec des résultats plus adapatées pour les politiques de développement.