Trends in the incidence of colorectal cancer in sub-Saharan Africa: A population-based registry study.

In sub-Saharan Africa, colorectal cancer (CRC) has historically been considered a rare disease, although some previous studies have suggested that the incidence is increasing. We examine time trends in the incidence of CRC using data from 12 population-based cancer registries in 11 countries of sub-Saharan Africa that were able to provide time series data for periods of 12 or more years, or with earlier data with which recent rates may be compared. Age-standardized incidence rates were highest in the higher-income countries, and were increasing in all of the populations studied, and these increases were statistically significant in all but three. Current evidence has suggested a link between the increased adoption of western lifestyle habits with colorectal cancer, and along with increasing urbanization of African populations, there is an increase in body weight, as well as evidence of increasing consumption of meat, sugars, and alcohol.

Global variations in lung cancer incidence by histological subtype in 2020: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the second most common cancer worldwide, yet the distribution by histological subtype remains unknown. We aimed to quantify the global, regional, and national burden of lung cancer incidence for the four main subtypes in 185 countries and territories. METHODS: In this population-based study, we used data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volume XI and the African Cancer Registry Network to assess the proportions of adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, small-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma among all lung cancers by country, sex, and age group and subsequently applied these data to corresponding national (GLOBOCAN) estimates of lung cancer incidence in 2020. Unspecified morphologies were reallocated to specified subtypes. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated using the world standard population to compare subtype risks worldwide, adjusted for differences in age composition between populations by country. FINDINGS: In 2020, there were an estimated 2 206 771 new cases of lung cancer, with 1 435 943 in males and 770 828 in females worldwide. In males, 560 108 (39%) of all lung cancer cases were adenocarcinoma, 351 807 (25%) were squamous cell carcinoma, 163 862 (11%) were small-cell carcinoma, and 115 322 (8%) were large-cell carcinoma cases. In females, 440 510 (57%) of all lung cancer cases were adenocarcinoma, 91 070 (12%) were squamous cell carcinoma, 68 224 (9%) were small-cell carcinoma, and 49 246 (6%) were large-cell carcinoma cases. Age-standardised incidence rates for adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, small-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma, respectively, were estimated to be 12·4, 7·7, 3·6, and 2·6 per 100 000 person-years in males and 8·3, 1·6, 1·3, and 0·9 per 100 000 person-years in females worldwide. The incidence rates of adenocarcinoma exceeded those of squamous cell carcinoma in 150 of 185 countries in males and in all 185 countries in females. The highest age-standardised incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, small-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma, respectively, for males occurred in eastern Asia (23·5), central and eastern Europe (17·5), western Asia (7·2), and south-eastern Asia (11·0); and for females occurred in eastern Asia (16·0), northern America (5·4), northern America (4·7), and south-eastern Asia (3·4). The incidence of each subtype showed a clear gradient according to the Human Development Index for male and female individuals, with increased rates in high and very high Human Development Index countries. INTERPRETATION: Adenocarcinoma has become the most common subtype of lung cancer globally in 2020, with incidence rates in males exceeding those of squamous cell carcinoma in most countries, and in females in all countries. Our findings provide new insights into the nature of the global lung cancer burden and facilitates tailored national preventive actions within each world region. FUNDING: None.

Trends in the incidence of ovarian cancer in sub-Saharan Africa.

Ovarian cancer (OC) is one of the commonest cancers of women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), although to date no data have been available on time trends in incidence to better understand the disease pattern in the region. We estimate time trends by histological subtype from 12 population-based cancer registries in 11 countries: Kenya (Nairobi), Mauritius, Seychelles, Uganda (Kampala), Congo (Brazzaville), Zimbabwe (Bulawayo and Harare), Cote d'Ivoire (Abidjan), The Gambia, Mali (Bamako), Nigeria (Ibadan) and South Africa (Eastern Cape). The selected registries were those that could provide consistent estimates of the incidence of ovarian cancer and with quality assessment for periods of 10 or more years. A total of 5423 cases of OC were included. Incidence rates have been increasing in all registries except Brazzaville, Congo, where a nonsignificant decline of 1% per year was seen. Statistically significant average annual increases were seen in Mauritius (2.5%), Bamako (5.3%), Ibadan (3.9%) and Eastern Cape (8%). Epithelial ovarian cancer was responsible for the increases observed in all registries. Statistically significant average annual percentage changes (AAPC) for epithelial OC were present in Bamako (AAPC = 5.9%), Ibadan (AAPC = 4.7%) and Eastern Cape (AAPC = 11.0%). Creating awareness among professionals of the growing importance of the disease is surely an important step to improving availability of, and access to, diagnosis and treatment of OC in SSA. Support must be given to the cancer registries to improve the availability of good-quality data on this important cancer.

Guideline Concordance of Treatment and Outcomes Among Adult Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma Patients in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Multinational, Population-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is the 6th most common malignancy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), little is known about its management and outcome. Herein, we examined treatment patterns and survival among NHL patients. METHODS: We obtained a random sample of adult patients diagnosed between 2011 and 2015 from 11 population-based cancer registries in 10 SSA countries. Descriptive statistics for lymphoma-directed therapy (LDT) and degree of concordance with National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines were calculated, and survival rates were estimated. FINDINGS: Of 516 patients included in the study, sub-classification was available for 42.1% (121 high-grade and 64 low-grade B-cell lymphoma, 15 T-cell lymphoma and 17 otherwise sub-classified NHL), whilst the remaining 57.9% were unclassified. Any LDT was identified for 195 of all patients (37.8%). NCCN guideline-recommended treatment was initiated in 21 patients. This corresponds to 4.1% of all 516 patients, and to 11.7% of 180 patients with sub-classified B-cell lymphoma and NCCN guidelines available. Deviations from guideline-recommended treatment were initiated in another 49 (9.5% of 516, 27.2% of 180). By registry, the proportion of all patients receiving guideline-concordant LDT ranged from 30.8% in Namibia to 0% in Maputo and Bamako. Concordance with treatment recommendations was not assessable in 75.1% of patients (records not traced (43.2%), traced but no sub-classification identified (27.8%), traced but no guidelines available (4.1%)). By registry, diagnostic work-up was in part importantly limited, thus impeding guideline evaluation significantly. Overall 1-year survival was 61.2% (95%CI 55.3%-67.1%). Poor ECOG performance status, advanced stage, less than 5 cycles and absence of chemo (immuno-) therapy were associated with unfavorable survival, while HIV status, age, and gender did not impact survival. In diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, initiation of guideline-concordant treatment was associated with favorable survival. INTERPRETATION: This study shows that a majority of NHL patients in SSA are untreated or undertreated, resulting in unfavorable survival. Investments in enhanced diagnostic services, provision of chemo(immuno-)therapy and supportive care will likely improve outcomes in the region.

Trends in childhood cancer incidence in sub-Saharan Africa: Results from 25 years of cancer registration in Harare (Zimbabwe) and Kyadondo (Uganda).

We examined trends in childhood cancer incidence in sub-Saharan Africa using data from two population-based cancer registries in Harare (Zimbabwe) and Kyadondo (Uganda) with cases classified according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer and explored reasons for observed variations and changes. Over the whole 25-year period (1991-2015) studied, there were only small, and nonsignificant overall trends in incidence. Nevertheless, within the period, peaks in incidence occurred from 1996 to 2001 in Harare (Zimbabwe) and from 2003 to 2006 in Kyadondo (Uganda). Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma accounted for the majority of the cases during these periods. These fluctuations in incidence rates in both registries can be linked to similar trends in the prevalence of HIV, and the availability of antiretroviral therapy. In addition, we noted that, in Harare, incidence rates dropped from 2003 to 2004 and 2007 to 2008, correlating with declines in national gross domestic product. The results indicate that the registration of childhood cancer cases in resource-poor settings is linked to the availability of diagnostic services mediated by economic developments. The findings highlight the need for specialised diagnostic and treatment programmes for childhood cancer patients as well as positive effects of HIV programmes on certain childhood cancers.

Stage at diagnosis and survival by stage for the leading childhood cancers in three populations of sub-Saharan Africa.

The lack of accurate population-based information on childhood cancer stage and survival in low-income countries is a barrier to improving childhood cancer outcomes. In our study, data from three population-based registries in sub-Saharan Africa (Abidjan, Harare and Kampala) were examined for children aged under 15. We assessed the feasibility of assigning stage at diagnosis according to Tier 1 of the Toronto Childhood Cancer Stage Guidelines for patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma [including Burkitt lymphoma (BL)], retinoblastoma and Wilms' tumour. Patients were actively followed-up, allowing calculation of 3-year relative survival by cancer type and registry. Stage-specific observed survival was estimated. The cohort comprised 381 children, of whom half (n = 192, 50%) died from any cause within 3 years of diagnosis. Three-year relative survival varied by malignancy and location and ranged from 17% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 6%-33%] for BL in Harare to 57% (95% CI = 31%-76%) for retinoblastoma in Kampala. Stage was assigned for 83% of patients (n = 317 of 381), with over half having metastatic or advanced disease at diagnosis (n = 166, 52%). Stage was a strong predictor of survival for each malignancy; for example, 3-year observed survival was 88% (95% CI = 68%-96%) and 13% (4%-29%) for localised and advanced BL, respectively (P < .001). These are the first data on stage distribution and stage-specific survival for childhood cancers in Africa. They demonstrate the feasibility of the Toronto Stage Guidelines in a low-resource setting and highlight the value of population-based cancer registries in aiding our understanding of the poor outcomes experienced by this population.

Colorectal cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis and Human Development Index: A population-based registry study.

There are limited population-based survival data for colorectal cancer (CRC) in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, 1707 persons diagnosed with CRC from 2005 to 2015 were randomly selected from 13 population-based cancer registries operating in 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Vital status was ascertained from medical charts or through next of kin. 1-, 3- and 5-year overall and relative survival rates for all registries and for each registry were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Multivariable analysis was used to examine the associations of 5-year relative survival with age at diagnosis, stage and country-level Human Development Index (HDI). Observed survival for 1448 patients with CRC across all registries combined was 72.0% (95% CI 69.5-74.4%) at 1 year, 50.4% (95% CI 47.6-53.2%) at 3 years and 43.5% (95% CI 40.6-46.3%) at 5 years. We estimate that relative survival at 5 years in these registry populations is 48.2%. Factors associated with poorer survival included living in a country with lower HDI, late stage at diagnosis and younger or older age at diagnosis (<50 or ≥70 years). For example, the risk of death was 1.6 (95% CI 1.2-2.1) times higher for patients residing in medium-HDI and 2.7 (95% CI 2.2-3.4) times higher for patients residing in low-HDI compared to those residing in high-HDI countries. Survival for CRC remains low in sub-Saharan African countries, though estimates vary considerably by HDI. Strengthening health systems to ensure access to prevention, early diagnosis and appropriate treatment is critical in improving outcomes of CRC in the region.

Prostate cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis, and human development index: a population-based registry study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate observed and relative survival of prostate cancer patients in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and to examine the influence of age, stage at diagnosis and the Human Development Index (HDI). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this comparative registry study, we selected a random sample of 1752 incident cases of malign prostatic neoplasm from 12 population-based cancer registries from 10 SSA countries, registered between 2005 and 2015. We analyzed the data using Kaplan-Meier and Ederer II methods to obtain outcome estimates and flexible Poisson regression modeling to calculate the excess hazards of death RESULTS: For the 1406 patients included in the survival analyses, 763 deaths occurred during 3614 person-years of observation. Of patients with known stage, 45.2% had stage IV disease, 31.2% stage III and only 23.6% stage I and II. The 1 and 5-year relative survival for the entire cohort was 78.0% (75.4-80.7) and 60.0% (55.7-64.6), while varying between the registries. Late presentation was associated with increased excess hazards and a 0.1 increase in the HDI was associated with a 20% lower excess hazard of death, while for age at diagnosis no association was found. CONCLUSIONS: We found poor survival of SSA prostatic tumor patients, as well as high proportions of late stage presentation, which are associated with inferior outcome. This calls for investment in health-care systems and action regarding projects to raise awareness among the population to achieve earlier diagnosis and improve survival.

Development of paediatric non-stage prognosticator guidelines for population-based cancer registries and updates to the 2014 Toronto Paediatric Cancer Stage Guidelines.

Population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) generate measures of cancer incidence and survival that are essential for cancer surveillance, research, and cancer control strategies. In 2014, the Toronto Paediatric Cancer Stage Guidelines were developed to standardise how PBCRs collect data on the stage at diagnosis for childhood cancer cases. These guidelines have been implemented in multiple jurisdictions worldwide to facilitate international comparative studies of incidence and outcome. Robust stratification by risk also requires data on key non-stage prognosticators (NSPs). Key experts and stakeholders used a modified Delphi approach to establish principles guiding paediatric cancer NSP data collection. With the use of these principles, recommendations were made on which NSPs should be collected for the major malignancies in children. The 2014 Toronto Stage Guidelines were also reviewed and updated where necessary. Wide adoption of the resultant Paediatric NSP Guidelines and updated Toronto Stage Guidelines will enhance the harmonisation and use of childhood cancer data provided by PBCRs.

The evolving epidemic of breast cancer in sub-Saharan Africa: Results from the African Cancer Registry Network.

Breast cancer (BC) is the leading cause of cancer in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with rapidly increasing incidence rates reported in Uganda and Zimbabwe. However, the magnitude of these rising trends in premenopausal and postmenopausal women is unknown in most African countries. We used data from the African Cancer Registry Network on incident breast cancers in women from 11 population-based cancer registries in 10 countries representing each of the four SSA regions. We explored incidence changes among women before and after age 50 by calendar period and, where possible, generational effects in this unique sub-Saharan African cohort. Temporal trends revealed increasing incidence rates in all registries during the study period, except in Nairobi where rates stabilised during 2010 to 2014 after rapidly increasing from 2003 to 2010 (APC = 8.5 95%, CI: 3.0-14.2). The cumulative risk varied between and within regions, with the highest risks observed in Nairobi-Kenya, Mauritius and the Seychelles. There were similar or more rapidly increasing incidence rates in women aged 50+ compared to women <50 years in all registries except The Gambia. Birth cohort analyses revealed increases in the incidence rates in successive generations of women aged 45 and over in Harare-Zimbabwe and Kampala-Uganda. In conclusion, the incidence of BC is increasing rapidly in many parts of Africa; however, the magnitude of these changes differs. These results highlight the need for urgent actions across the cancer continuum from in-depth risk factor studies to provision of adequate therapy as well as the necessity of supporting the maintenance of good quality population-based cancer registration in Africa.

Cervical cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis and Human Development Index: A population-based registry study.

Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in African women. We sought to estimate population-based survival and evaluate excess hazards for mortality in African women with cervical cancer, examining the effects of country-level Human Development Index (HDI), age and stage at diagnosis. We selected a random sample of 2760 incident cervical cancer cases, diagnosed in 2005 to 2015 from 13 population-based cancer registries in 11 countries (Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe) through the African Cancer Registry Network. Of these, 2735 were included for survival analyses. The 1-, 3- and 5-year observed and relative survival were estimated by registry, stage and country-level HDI. We used flexible Poisson regression models to estimate the excess hazards for death adjusting for age, stage and HDI. Among patients with known stage, 65.8% were diagnosed with Stage III-IV disease. The 5-year relative survival for Stage I-II cervical cancer in high HDI registry areas was 67.5% (42.1-83.6) while it was much lower (42.2% [30.6-53.2]) for low HDI registry areas. Independent predictors of mortality were Stage III-IV disease, medium to low country-level HDI and age >65 years at cervical cancer diagnosis. The average relative survival from cervix cancer in the 11 countries was 69.8%, 44.5% and 33.1% at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively. Factors contributing to the HDI (such as education and a country's financial resources) are critical for cervical cancer control in SSA and there is need to strengthen health systems with timely and appropriate prevention and treatment programmes.

Breast cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa by age, stage at diagnosis and human development index: A population-based registry study.

Breast cancer is the leading cancer diagnosis and second most common cause of cancer deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, there are few population-level survival data from Africa and none on the survival differences by stage at diagnosis. Here, we estimate breast cancer survival within SSA by area, stage and country-level human development index (HDI). We obtained data on a random sample of 2,588 breast cancer incident cases, diagnosed in 2008-2015 from 14 population-based cancer registries in 12 countries (Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe) through the African Cancer Registry Network. Of these, 2,311 were included for survival analyses. The 1-, 3- and 5-year observed and relative survival (RS) were estimated by registry, stage and country-level HDI. We equally estimated the excess hazards adjusting for potential confounders. Among patients with known stage, 64.9% were diagnosed in late stages, with 18.4% being metastatic at diagnosis. The RS varied by registry, ranging from 21.6%(8.2-39.8) at Year 3 in Bulawayo to 84.5% (70.6-93.5) in Namibia. Patients diagnosed at early stages had a 3-year RS of 78% (71.6-83.3) in contrast to 40.3% (34.9-45.7) at advanced stages (III and IV). The overall RS at Year 1 was 86.1% (84.4-87.6), 65.8% (63.5-68.1) at Year 3 and 59.0% (56.3-61.6) at Year 5. Age at diagnosis was not independently associated with increased mortality risk after adjusting for the effect of stage and country-level HDI. In conclusion, downstaging breast cancer at diagnosis and improving access to quality care could be pivotal in improving breast cancer survival outcomes in Africa.

Essential TNM: a registry tool to reduce gaps in cancer staging information.

Accurate information on the extent of disease around the time of diagnosis is an important component of cancer care, in defining disease prognosis, and evaluating national and international cancer control policies. However, the collection of stage data by population-based cancer registries remains a challenge in both high-income and low and middle-income countries. We emphasise the lack of availability and comparability of staging information in many population-based cancer registries and propose Essential TNM, a simplified staging system for cancer registries when information on full Tumour, Node, Metastasis (TNM) is absent. Essential TNM aims at staging cancer in its most advanced disease form by summarising the extent of disease in the order of distant metastasis (M), regional lymph node involvement (N), and tumour size or extension, or both (T). Flowcharts and rules have been developed for coding these elements in breast, cervix, prostate, and colon cancers, and combining them into stage groups (I-IV) that correspond to those obtained by full TNM staging. Essential TNM is comparable to the Union for International Cancer Control TNM stage groups and is an alternative to providing staging information by the population-based cancer registries that complies with the objectives of the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development.

Cancer incidence in older adults in selected regions of sub-Saharan Africa, 2008-2012.

Although the countries of Sub-Sharan Africa represent among the most rapidly growing and aging populations worldwide, no previous studies have examined the cancer patterns in older adults in the region as a means to inform cancer policies. Using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, we describe recent patterns and trends in incidence rates for the major cancer sites in adults aged ≥60 years and in people aged 0-59 for comparison in four selected population-based cancer registries in Kenya (Nairobi), the Republic of South Africa (Eastern Cape Province), Uganda (Kyadondo country), and Zimbabwe (Harare blacks). Over the period 2008-2012, almost 9,000 new cancer cases were registered in older adults in the four populations, representing one-third of all cancer cases. Prostate and esophageal cancers were the leading cancer sites in older males, while breast, cervical and esophageal cancers were the most common among older females. Among younger people, Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma were common. Over the past 20 years, incidence rates among older adults have increased in both sexes in Uganda and Zimbabwe while rates have stabilized among the younger age group. Among older adults, the largest rate increase was observed for breast cancer (estimated annual percentage change: 5% in each country) in females and for prostate cancer (6-7%) in males. Due to the specific needs of older adults, tailored considerations should be given to geriatric oncology when developing, funding and implementing national and regional cancer programmes.

Survival from childhood cancers in Eastern Africa: A population-based registry study.

Cancers occurring in children in Africa are often underdiagnosed, or at best diagnosed late. As a result, survival is poor, even for cancers considered 'curable'. With limited population-level data, understanding the actual burden and survival from childhood cancers in Africa is difficult. In this study, we aimed at providing survival estimates for the most common types of cancers affecting children aged 0-14 years, in three population-based Eastern African registries; Harare, Zimbabwe (Kaposi sarcoma, Wilms tumour (WT), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), retinoblastoma, and acute lymphocytic leukaemia (ALL)), Kampala, Uganda (Burkitt lymphoma, Kaposi sarcoma, WT, and retinoblastoma), and Nairobi, Kenya (ALL, retinoblastoma, WT, Burkitt lymphoma, and Hodgkin lymphoma). We included cases diagnosed within the years 1998-2009 and followed up till the end of 2011. We estimated the observed and relative survival at 1, 3, and 5 years after diagnosis. We studied 627 individual patient records. Median follow-up ranged from 2.2 months for children with Kaposi sarcoma in Harare to 30.2 months for children with ALL in Nairobi. The proportion of children lost to follow-up was highest in the first year after diagnosis. In Harare and Kampala, the 5-year relative survival was <46% for all cancer types. The 5-year relative survival was best for children in Nairobi, though with wider confidence intervals. Survival from childhood cancers in Africa is still poor, even for cancers with good prognosis and potential for cure. Supporting cancer detection, treatment, and registration activities could help improve survival chances for children with cancers in Africa.

Black-white differences in cancer risk in Harare, Zimbabwe, during 1991-2010.

Data from 20 years of cancer registration in Harare (Zimbabwe) are used to investigate the risk of cancer in the white population of the city (of European origin), relative to that in blacks (of African origin). In the absence of information on the respective populations-at-risk, we calculated odds of each major cancer among all cancers, and took the odds ratios of whites to blacks. Some major differences reflect obvious phenotypic differences (the very high incidence of skin cancer-melanoma and nonmelanoma--in the white population), whereas others (high rates of liver cancer, Kaposi sarcoma and conjunctival cancers in blacks) are the result of differences in exposure to infectious agents. Of particular interest are cancers related to lifestyle factors, and how the differences in risk are changing over time, as a result of evolving lifestyles. Thus, the high risk of cancers of the esophagus and cervix uteri in blacks (relative to whites) and colorectal cancers in whites show little change over time. Conversely, the odds of breast cancer, on average four times higher in whites than blacks, has shown a significant decrease in the differential over time. Cancer of the prostate, with the odds initially (1991-1997) 15% higher in whites had become 33% higher in blacks by 2004-2010.

Cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa (SURVCAN-3): a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The Cancer Survival in Africa, Asia, and South America project (SURVCAN-3) of the International Agency for Research on Cancer aims to fill gaps in the availability of population-level cancer survival estimates from countries in these regions. Here, we analysed survival for 18 cancers using data from member registries of the African Cancer Registry Network across 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We included data on patients diagnosed with 18 cancer types between Jan 1, 2005, and Dec 31, 2014, from 13 population-based cancer registries in Cotonou (Benin), Abidjan (CÔte d'Ivoire), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Eldoret and Nairobi (Kenya), Bamako (Mali), Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles, Eastern Cape (South Africa), Kampala (Uganda), and Bulawayo and Harare (Zimbabwe). Patients were followed up until Dec 31, 2018. Patient-level data including cancer topography and morphology, age and date at diagnosis, vital status, and date of death (if applicable) were collected. The follow-up (survival) time was measured from the date of incidence until the date of last contact, the date of death, or until the end of the study, whichever occurred first. We estimated the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival (observed, net, and age-standardised net survival) by sex, cancer type, registry, country, and human development index (HDI). 1-year and 3-year survival data were available for all registries and all cancer sites, whereas availability of 5-year survival data was slightly more variable; thus to provide medium-term survival prospects, we have focused on 3-year survival in the Results section. FINDINGS: 10 500 individuals from 13 population-based cancer registries in 11 countries were included in the survival analyses. 9177 (87·4%) of 10 500 cases were morphologically verified. Survival from cancers with a high burden and amenable to prevention was poor: the 3-year age-standardised net survival was 52·3% (95% CI 49·4-55·0) for cervical cancer, 18·1% (11·5-25·9) for liver cancer, and 32·4% (27·5-37·3) for lung cancer. Less than half of the included patients were alive 3 years after a cancer diagnosis for eight cancer types (oral cavity, oesophagus, stomach, larynx, lung, liver, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and leukaemia). There were differences in survival for some cancers by sex: survival was longer for females with stomach or lung cancer than males with stomach or lung cancer, and longer for males with non-Hodgkin lymphomas than females with non-Hodgkin lymphomas. Survival did not differ by country-level HDI for cancers of the oral cavity, oesophagus, liver, thyroid, and for Hodgkin lymphoma. INTERPRETATION: For cancers for which population-level prevention strategies exist, and with relatively poor prognosis, these estimates highlight the urgent need to upscale population-level prevention activities in sub-Saharan Africa. These data are vital for providing the knowledge base for advocacy to improve access to prevention, diagnosis, and care for patients with cancers in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: Vital Strategies, the Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. TRANSLATIONS: For the French and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Kaposi sarcoma trends in Uganda and Zimbabwe: a sustained decline in incidence?

Trends in Kaposi sarcoma (KS) incidence over four decades were described for Zimbabwe and Uganda. KS data were retrieved from the population-based cancer registries of Bulawayo (1963-1971) and Harare (1990-2005), Zimbabwe and Kyadondo, Uganda (1960-1971 and 1991-2007). Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze time trends of KS incidence. Trends were compared to HIV/AIDS trends and were also described as rates versus birth cohort by age. In both countries, an increased incidence of KS accompanied the emergence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (p-value < 0.0001). In Zimbabwe, KS incidence (both sexes, all ages) changed in parallel to that of HIV/AIDS prevalence, whereas in Uganda, despite an observed decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence since 1992, we observed a decrease in KS incidence in men younger than 50 years (Annual Percent Change, APC after 1991 = -4.5 [-5.6; -3.4], p-value < 0.05) but not in men aged >50 years (APC after 1991 = 1.0 [-2.8; 5.0]) nor in women (APC = 1.0 [-0.6; 2.6]). In both populations, a period effect at older ages was observed, with initial increases in incidence in men followed subsequently by a downturn in rates of the same magnitude. The uniformly declining rates in younger men (aged less than 30 years) suggested that a recent cohort effect was also in operation with a reduced risk in generations born after the mid-1950s in Uganda and in the mid-1960s in Zimbabwe. The combined introduction of antiretroviral therapy and effective prevention programmes against HIV/AIDS appeared to be the key contributors to the KS decline observed in both Uganda and Zimbabwe.

Cancer incidence among people living with HIV in Zimbabwe: A record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV (PLWH) are at increased risk of developing cancer. Cancer diagnoses are often incompletely captured at antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics. AIM: To estimate the incidence and explore risk factors of cancer in a cohort of PLWH in Harare using probabilistic record linkage (PRL). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included PLWH aged ≥16 years starting ART between 2004 and 2017. We used PRL to match records from the Zimbabwe National Cancer Registry (ZNCR) with electronic medical records from an ART clinic in Harare to investigate the incidence of cancer among PLWH initiating ART. We matched records based on demographic data followed by manual clerical review. We followed PLWH up until first cancer diagnosis, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2017, whichever came first. RESULTS: We included 3442 PLWH (64.9% female) with 19 346 person-years (PY) of follow-up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 169 cells/mm3 (interquartile range [IQR]: 82-275), median age was 36.6 years (IQR: 30.6-43.4). There were 66 incident cancer cases for an overall incidence rate of 341/100 000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 268-434). Twenty-two of these cases were recorded in the ZNCR only. The most common cancers were cervical cancer (n = 16; 123/100 000 PY; 95% CI: 75-201), Kaposi sarcoma, and lymphoma (both n = 12; 62/100 000 PY; 95% CI: 35-109). Cancer incidence increased with age and decreased with higher CD4 cell counts at ART initiation. CONCLUSION: PRL was key to correct for cancer under-ascertainment in this cohort. The most common cancers were infection-related types, reinforcing the role of early HIV treatment, human papillomavirus vaccination, and cervical cancer screening for cancer prevention in this setting.

Changes in the Incidence of Cancer in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe over a 50-Year Period.

BACKGROUND: The cancer registry of Bulawayo (Zimbabwe) operated for 15 years in the preindependence period (1963-77), and was restarted in 2011. This allows comparison of incidence of cancers over a period of almost 50 years. METHODS: Age-standardized rates, with SEs, were calculated for 1963-1972 and 2011-2015. Detailed results are presented for those cancers for which there was a significant (P < 0.05) change in the rates between the two periods. RESULTS: There were declines in the rates of those cancers previously known to be common in East and Southern Africa (esophagus, liver, bladder), and the emergence of cancers associated with "westernization" of lifestyles (breast, prostate, large bowel). Cancers related to infection with HIV-AIDS (Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, eye cancers) have come to comprise a much larger proportion of the total burden, and cancer of the cervix (also AIDS-related) has shown a large increase in incidence-as elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). More surprising is the decline in cancer of the lung-formerly very high, but by 2011-2015, despite little change in the prevalence of smoking, rates were low-close to the average for SSA. This may relate, in part, to a decline in the numbers of miners, and ex-miners, residing in the city. CONCLUSIONS: The changes in incidence are largely explained by differences in past exposure to environmental risk factors. IMPACT: Few datasets from SSA can document temporal changes in the cancer epidemic on the continent. There are some anticipated observations, as well as unexpected findings meriting further investigation.