Rising trends in incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma and their future projections in Catalonia, Spain: increasing impact or future epidemic?

BACKGROUND: During the past decades, there has been a substantial increase in the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) among all Caucasian populations. Spain presents one of Europe's lowest incidence and mortality rates. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyse the recent trends of CMM incidence and mortality in a region with lower incidence as well as to project their future trends. METHODS: Cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence data were provided by the Tarragona and Girona population-based cancer registries and mortality data were provided by the Mortality Registry of Catalonia. Time trends of incidence and mortality rates by CMM were assessed through the estimated annual percentages of change of the incidence and mortality age-standardized rates to the World Standard Population. Projections were based on a Bayesian age-period-cohort model using second order autoregressive effects on age. RESULTS: During the last 20 years CMM incidence has increased substantially at a faster rate than any other neoplasms in Catalonia, particularly among women and this trend will probably continue for the next several years. Nevertheless, CMM mortality trends have been and probably will remain stable during this period. CONCLUSION: Improvements in preventive activities should be implemented to decrease incidence and mortality from this cancer. Monitoring stage-specific trends in CMM incidence can assess the impact of preventive strategies; for this reason more complete information on diagnostic features of CMM patients in the Spanish population-based cancer registries are necessary.

Detection of incident breast and colorectal cancer cases from an administrative healthcare database in Catalonia, Spain.

OBJECTIVE: To validate the Catalan minimum basic data set (MBDS) of hospital discharges as an information source for detecting incident breast (BC) and colorectal cancer (CRC), against the Hospital del Mar Cancer Registry (RTHMar) in Barcelona (Spain) as the gold standard. METHODS: Using ASEDAT software (Analysis, Selection and Extraction of Tumour Data), we identified Catalan public hospital discharge abstracts in patients with a first-time diagnosis of BC and CRC in the years 2005, 2008, and 2011, aggregated by unique patient identifiers and sorted by date. Once merged with the RTHMar database and anonymized, tumour-specific algorithms were validated to extract data on incident cases, tumour stage, surgical treatment, and date of incidence. RESULTS: MBDS had a respective sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of 78.0% (564/723) and 90.5% (564/623) for BC case detection; and 83.9% (387/461) and 94.9% (387/408) for CRC case detection. The staging algorithms overestimated the proportion of local-stage cases and underestimated the regional-stage cases in both cancers. When loco-regional stage and surgery were combined, sensitivity and PPV reached 98.3% and 99.8%, respectively, for BC and 96.4% and 98.4% for CRC. The differences between dates of incidence between RTHMar and MBDS were greater for BC cases without initial surgery, whereas they were generally smaller and homogeneous for CRC cases. CONCLUSIONS: The MBDS is a valid and efficient instrument to improve the completeness of a hospital-based cancer registry (HBCR), particularly in BC and CRC, which require hospitalization and are predominantly surgical.

Epidemiology of human papillomavirus-related oropharyngeal cancer in a classically low-burden region of southern Europe.

The incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal cancer is increasing in some regions. Nevertheless, the epidemiology of this disease has not been extensively investigated in southern Europe. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with primary oropharyngeal cancer from 1991 to 2016. Cancer tissues underwent histopathological evaluation, DNA quality control, HPV-DNA detection and p16INK4a immunohistochemistry. Data were collected from medical records. Factors associated with HPV positivity and time trends were evaluated with multivariable Bayesian models. The adjusted prevalence of HPV-related cases in 864 patients with a valid HPV-DNA result was 9.7%, with HPV-DNA/p16INK4a double positivity being considered. HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer was likely to occur in non-smokers and non-drinkers, to be located in the tonsil or diagnosed at advanced stages. Time-trend analysis showed an increasing risk of HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer in the most recent periods (5-year period increase of 30%). This increase was highest and with a clear increasing trend only in the most recent years (2012-2016). The prevalence of HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer started to sharply increase in the most recent years in our setting, as occurred two decades ago in areas where most oropharyngeal cancer cases are currently HPV-related. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological landscape of HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer in a region of southern Europe.

Life expectancy and age-period-cohort effects: analysis and projections of mortality in Spain between 1977 and 2016.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to: (1) assess Spanish mortality trends between 1977 and 2001 and their impact on life expectancy; and (2) assess the differences in life expectancy between men and women for the period 2002-2016. STUDY DESIGN: Time trends study using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. METHODS: A Bayesian APC model was fitted to describe Spanish mortality rates for the period 1977-2001 and to project Spanish mortality rates for 2002-2016. Life expectancy was predicted through Chiang's method using projected mortality rates. RESULTS: There was a significant cohort effect for Spanish mortality, showing a slight increase in mortality among men aged 20-39 years between 1986 and 1997 (birth cohorts 1940-1970). Life expectancy is expected to increase by approximately 0.5% in men and women between 1977 and 2016 (1 year per 5-year period). Life expectancy for males born between 2012 and 2016 will be 77.15 years, compared with 84.95 years for females born during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: The rising trend in mortality among the 1940-1970 cohorts may be due to the increased risk of avoidable causes of death related to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, traffic accidents, and drug and alcohol abuse during the mid 1980s. The decline in mortality rates in recent years could lead to a mean increase in life expectancy of 1 year per 5-year period in both genders between 2002 and 2016. An increase in life expectancy for women and a levelling off for men is expected for age groups older than 79 years.

Cause-specific mortality after a breast cancer diagnosis: a cohort study of 10,195 women in Girona and Tarragona.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence suggests an excess of long-term mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, second tumours and other causes in patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer (BC). Our aim was to assess this risk of death in a cohort of patients diagnosed with BC in Girona and Tarragona, northeastern Spain. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using data from the cancer registries in these areas, a population-based cohort study was carried out including all the women diagnosed with BC during 1985-2004 and followed up until December 31st 2014 (N = 10,195). The standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for causes other than BC in the cohort at 10 years (periods 1985-1994/1995-2004) and 20 years (period 1985-1994). The impact of competing causes of death in the long-term survival was evaluated through competing risk analysis. RESULTS: The SMRs at 10 and 20 years for all-cause mortality, except BC, were 1.21 and 1.22. The main causes of mortality showing statistically significant SMR at 10 years were other tumours (colon, lung, corpus uteri, ovary, and haematological), diabetes mellitus, diseases of the nervous system, cardiovascular diseases (after BC, the second competing cause of death among patients diagnosed > 69 years) and diseases of the kidney. Globally, the 10-year SMR was higher in the first period. After 20 years of follow-up (1985-1994 cohort), there were 48.5 excess deaths per 10,000 patient-years for causes other than BC. CONCLUSIONS: Women who did not die from BC at 10 or 20 years after the BC diagnosis had 20% higher risk of dying from other causes than women without BC. This excess risk must be clinically considered during 20 years after the BC diagnosis.

Mesothelioma mortality in men: trends during 1977-2001 and projections for 2002-2016 in Spain.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate mesothelioma death trends in Spain and to predict the number of future cases of mesothelioma. METHODS: After descriptive analysis of mesothelioma mortality data, an age-period-cohort model was applied to estimate future mesothelioma deaths. RESULTS: From 1977 to 2001, 1928 men over 35 years of age died of mesothelioma in Spain. Projections indicate that 1321 men are expected to die from mesothelioma between 2007 and 2016. CONCLUSION: It is expected that mesothelioma deaths will increase at least until 2016. Available data do not allow prediction of the year when mortality will start to decrease.

[Cancer mortality trends in Catalonia, 1985-2004]. / Tendencias de la mortalidad por cáncer en Cataluña, 1985-2004.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In the last two decades, major changes have occurred in both the epidemiology and the healthcare of cancer, which have had a substantial impact on the mortality due to this disease. The objective of this study was to analyze cancer mortality trends in Catalonia in the previous 20 years and to compare these trends with those in Europe. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Mortality data were gathered from the mortality register of the Department of Health of Catalonia, which includes all deaths in Catalonia from 1985-2004. The causes of death are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 for 1985-1998 and ICD-10 for 1999-2004). The population data used were inter-census (1985-2000), census (2001) and post-census (2002-2004) estimates from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Ageadjusted rates (AR) (to the world population of 1960) and accumulated rates from 0 to 74 years old were calculated. A Poisson model was adjusted to the AR to estimate the mortality trend and the annual percentage of change was calculated for the years 1985-1994 and 1995- 2004 and for the period 1985-2002 as a whole. RESULTS: From 1985-2004, the risk of dying from cancer decreased from 18.54 % to 17.49% in men and from 9.24% to 7.69% in women. The adjusted rate of mortality decreased in cancer of the larynx (2,52%), prostate (1.11%) and stomach (2.89%) in men and in stomach cancer (-3.64) in women. In men, there was a significant increase in mortality from colorectal cancer (an increase of 2.8% to 1994 with subsequent stabilization) and from lung cancer (an increase of 1.36% to 1994 with a subsequent decrease). Cancer of the liver showed a nonsignificant increase until 1994 with a subsequent decrease of 3.13%. In women, breast cancer increased until 1994 (1.48%) and subsequently significantly decreased (2.72%). Lung cancer increased throughout the entire period but this increase was only significant (4,81%) in the last decade. CONCLUSIONS: In the last two decades, cancer mortality has shown a general decreasing trend, although mortality from several tumors has substantially increased. Compared with other European countries, Catalonia shows lower cancer mortality in women than in men. Nevertheless, the trends shown in the last decade are similar to those followed by the countries in the best positions.

[Predictions of cancer incidence and mortality in Catalonia to 2015 by means of Bayesian models]. / Proyección de la incidencia y la mortalidad del cáncer en Cataluña hasta el año 2015 mediante un modelo bayesiano.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To perform cancer incidence and mortality projections in Catalonia for the period 2005-2019. To assess the projected increase in the incidence in 2015 compared with that in 2005, and to determine whether this increase is attributable to changes in risk or in demographics. POPULATION AND METHOD: Bayesian age-period-cohort models were fitted to age-specific rates for 1985-2004 to obtain the expected number of cases for the 5-year periods 2005-2009, 2010-2014 and 2015- 2019. Annual cases were estimated through a polynomial interpolation model. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Tarrragona and Gerona cancer registries, while population pyramids for the period 1985-2019 were obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. RESULTS: In Catalonia, 27,438 cancer cases will be diagnosed among men and 19,986 among women in 2015, representing an increase in the number of cases diagnosed of 31% and 34%, respectively, when compared with those diagnosed in 2005 (20,999 and 14,141, respectively). In men, the increases attributable to risk, aging and demographic changes are 10%, 14% and 7%, respectively, whereas in women these changes are 6%, 13% and 15%. In the next decade, cancer mortality is expected to stabilize in men and to continue to decrease in women. Major increases in cancer incidence and mortality are expected among old age groups. CONCLUSIONS: The present study highlights the need to reorganize the resources and infrastructures required for cancer control and care, taking into account the predicted burden of oncology patients.

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 European countries by 2020.

BACKGROUND: We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010. METHODS: BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. RESULTS: The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted.

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona-Tarragona 1985-2004).

BACKGROUND: We provide population-based long-term survival indicators of breast cancer patients by quantifying the observed survival, and the probabilities of death due to breast cancer and to other causes by age and tumor stage at diagnosis. METHODS: We included a total of 10,195 female patients diagnosed before 85 years with invasive primary breast cancer in Girona and Tarragona during the periods 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and followed-up until December 31st 2014. The survival indicators were estimated at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years of follow-up comparing diagnostic periods. RESULTS: Comparing diagnostic periods: I) the probability of death due to other causes did not change; II) the 20-year survival for women diagnosed ≤ 49 years increased 13% (1995-2004 = 68%; 1985-1994:55%), whereas their probability of death due to breast cancer decreased at the same pace (1995-2004 = 29%; 1985-1994 = 42%); III) at 10 years of follow-up, decreases in the probabilities of death due to breast cancer across age groups switched from 11 to 17% resulting in a risk of death reduction of 19% after adjusting by stage. During 1995-2004, the stage-specific 10-year probabilities of death due to breast cancer switched from: 3-6% in stage I, 18-20% in stage II, 34-46% in stage III and surpassed 70% in stage IV beyond 5 years after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, women diagnosed with breast cancer had higher long-term probability to die from breast cancer than from other causes. The improvements in treatment and the lead-time bias in detecting cancer in an early stage resulted in a reduction of 19% in the risk of death between diagnostic periods.

Predicting the cancer burden in Catalonia between 2015 and 2025: the challenge of cancer management in the elderly.

BACKGROUND: Developing effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025. METHODS: Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry. Using the Bashir-Estève method, we divided the net change in the number of cases between 2015 and 2025 into changes due to population size (S), cancer risk (R) and age (A) distribution. RESULTS: By 2025, there will be 21,743 new cancer cases in men (40% aged > 74 years) and 17,268 in women (37% aged > 74 years). More than 40% of the new cases will be diagnosed among population aged 74 and older in prostate, colorectal, lung, bladder, pancreatic and stomach cancers in men, and in colorectal, pancreatic and bladder cancers and leukaemia in women. During 2015-2025, the number of new diagnoses will increase by 5.5% in men (A + R + S = 18.1% - 13.3% + 0.7% = 5.5%) and 11.9% in women (A + R + S = 12.4% - 1.1% + 0.6% = 11.9%). Overall cancer mortality rates will continue to decrease during 2015-2025. Lung cancer will be the most lethal cancer among men (N = 2705) and women (N = 1174). CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the number of cancer cases in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025 will mostly affect the elderly, prompting the need for increased collaboration between geriatricians and oncologists.

Reoperations after primary breast conserving surgery in women with invasive breast cancer in Catalonia, Spain: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Although complete tumor resection is accepted as the best means to reduce recurrence, reoperations after lumpectomy are a common problem in breast cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the reoperation rates after primary breast conserving surgery in invasive breast cancer cases diagnosed in Catalonia, Spain, between 2005 and 2011 and to identify variations based on patient and tumour characteristics. METHODS: Women with invasive incident breast cancer identified from the Patient's Hospital Discharge Database [174.0-174.9 codes of the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) as the primary diagnosis] and receiving primary breast conserving surgery were included in the study and were followed up to 3 and 12 months by collecting information about repeat breast cancer surgery. RESULTS: Reoperation rates after primary breast conserving surgery decreased from 13.0 % in 2005 to 11.7 % in 2011 at 3 months and from 14.2 % in 2005 to 12.9 % in 2011 at 12 months' follow-up. While breast conservation reoperations saw a slight, non-significant increase in the same period (from 5.7 to 7.3 % at 3 months, and from 6.0 to 7.5 % at 12 months), there was a significant decrease in radical reoperation (from 7.3 to 4.4 % at 3 months and from 8.2 to 5.4 % at 12 months). Overall, additional breast surgeries decreased among younger women. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the rise of breast conserving surgery, reoperation rates following initial lumpectomy in Catalonia decreased by 10 % at 3 and 12 months' follow-up, remaining low and almost unchanged. Ultimately, there was also a significant decrease in mastectomies.

[Use of multiple regression models in observational studies (1970-2013) and requirements of the STROBE guidelines in Spanish scientific journals]. / Utilización de los modelos de regresión múltiple en estudios observacionales (1970-2013) y requerimiento de la guía STROBE en revistas científicas españolas.

BACKGROUND: In medicine and biomedical research, statistical techniques like logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression are widely known. The main objective is to describe the evolution of multivariate techniques used in observational studies indexed in PubMed (1970-2013), and to check the requirements of the STROBE guidelines in the author guidelines in Spanish journals indexed in PubMed. METHODS: A targeted PubMed search was performed to identify papers that used logistic linear Cox and Poisson models. Furthermore, a review was also made of the author guidelines of journals published in Spain and indexed in PubMed and Web of Science. RESULTS: Only 6.1% of the indexed manuscripts included a term related to multivariate analysis, increasing from 0.14% in 1980 to 12.3% in 2013. In 2013, 6.7, 2.5, 3.5, and 0.31% of the manuscripts contained terms related to logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression, respectively. On the other hand, 12.8% of journals author guidelines explicitly recommend to follow the STROBE guidelines, and 35.9% recommend the CONSORT guideline. CONCLUSIONS: A low percentage of Spanish scientific journals indexed in PubMed include the STROBE statement requirement in the author guidelines. Multivariate regression models in published observational studies such as logistic regression, linear, Cox and Poisson are increasingly used both at international level, as well as in journals published in Spanish.

Time trends of cancer incidence and mortality in Catalonia during 1993-2007.

PURPOSE: To describe time trends of cancer in Catalonia, Spain, during the period 1993-2007. METHODS/PATIENTS: Data have been provided by two population-based cancer registries, Girona and Tarragona, and the Catalan mortality registry. Cancer incidence in Catalonia has been estimated through modeling methods using data from these health structures. RESULTS: During 2003-2007, there were 20,042 cancer cases and 9,842 deaths per year among men and 13,673 new cancer cases and 5,882 deaths among women. The most frequent incident cancers among men were prostate (N = 4,258), lung (N = 3,021), colorectal (N = 3,007) and bladder (N = 2,238), whereas among women they were breast (N = 3,907), colorectal (N = 2,088), corpus uteri (N = 734) and lung (N = 527). During 1993-2007, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) rose 1.2 % per year among men [prostate (6.3 %), testis (5.7 %), kidney (2.9 %), liver (2.2 %) and colorectal (2.1 %)]. ASIRs decreased for stomach (-2.9 %), oral cavity and pharynx (-2.8 %), larynx (-2.7 %) and esophagus (-2 %). Among women, ASIRs only rose for lung (5.2 %), kidney (3.1 %), oral cavity and pharynx (2.6 %) and thyroid (1.6 %). ASIRs decreased for corpus uteri (-2.3 %), stomach (-1.7 %) and ovary (-1.6 %). Cancer mortality decreased -1.3 % per year among men and -2.1 % among women during the same period. CONCLUSION: Among men, the decrease of incidence/mortality of tobacco-related tumors was related to a reduction of smoking prevalence. Among women, the stabilization of breast cancer incidence and the rise of lung cancer incidence are similar to that observed in most European regions. These results allow assessing the effectiveness of public health strategies and they pose new frontiers for cancer control in Catalonia.

Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models.

PURPOSE: To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010-2020. METHODS/PATIENTS: Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Predicted cases in Catalonia were estimated through autoregressive Bayesian age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: There will be diagnosed 26,455 incident cases among men and 18,345 among women during 2020, which means an increase of 22.5 and 24.5 % comparing with the cancer incidence figures of 2010. In men, the increase of cases (22.5 %) can be partitioned in three components: 12 % due to ageing, 8 % due to increase in population size and 2 % due to cancer risk. In women, the role of each component was 9, 8 and 8 %, respectively. The increased risk is mainly expected to be observed in tobacco-related tumours among women and in colorectal and liver cancers among men. During 2010-2020 a mortality decline is expected in both sexes. CONCLUSION: The expected increase of cancer incidence, mainly due to tobacco-related tumours in women and colorectal in men, reinforces the need to strengthen smoking prevention and the expansion of early detection of colorectal cancer in Catalonia.

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona-Tarragona 1985-2004)

Background: We provide population-based long-term survival indicators of breast cancer patients by quantifying the observed survival, and the probabilities of death due to breast cancer and to other causes by age and tumor stage at diagnosis. Methods; We included a total of 10,195 female patients diagnosed before 85 years with invasive primary breast cancer in Girona and Tarragona during the periods 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and followed-up until December 31st 2014. The survival indicators were estimated at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years of follow-up comparing diagnostic periods. Results: Comparing diagnostic periods: I) the probability of death due to other causes did not change; II) the 20-year survival for women diagnosed ≤ 49 years increased 13% (1995-2004 = 68%; 1985-1994:55%), whereas their probability of death due to breast cancer decreased at the same pace (1995-2004 = 29%; 1985-1994 = 42%); III) at 10 years of follow-up, decreases in the probabilities of death due to breast cancer across age groups switched from 11 to 17% resulting in a risk of death reduction of 19% after adjusting by stage. During 1995-2004, the stage-specific 10-year probabilities of death due to breast cancer switched from: 3-6% in stage I, 18-20% in stage II, 34-46% in stage III and surpassed 70% in stage IV beyond 5 years after diagnosis. Conclusions: In our study, women diagnosed with breast cancer had higher long-term probability to die from breast cancer than from other causes. The improvements in treatment and the lead-time bias in detecting cancer in an early stage resulted in a reduction of 19% in the risk of death between diagnostic periods

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Utilización de los modelos de regresión múltiple en estudios observacionales (1970-2013) y requerimiento de la guía STROBE en revistas científicas españolas / Use of multiple regression models in observational studies (1970-2013) and requirements of the STROBE guidelines in Spanish scientific journals

Fundamentos. En el ámbito de la investigación médica los modelos de regresión logística, lineal, Cox y Poisson son técnicas estadísticas ampliamente conocidas. El objetivo de este trabajo es describir la evolución de estas técnicas de regresión en los artículos observacionales indexados en PubMed (1970-2013) y revisar los requerimientos de las normas de autor de revistas españolas para conocer si requieren el cumplimiento de la guía STROBE. Métodos. Se realizó una búsqueda dirigida en PubMed para identificar los artículos que utilizaron modelos de regresión logística, lineal, Cox y Poisson. Además, se revisaron las normas de autor de las revistas editadas en España indexadas en PubMed e incluidas en Web Of Science. Resultados. El 6,1% de los artículos de estudios observacionales contenían algún término relativo a los modelos seleccionados, pasando del 0,14% en 1980 hasta un 12,3% en 2013. Este último año, un 6,7% de los artículos contenían algún término referido a regresión logística, un 2,5% a lineal, un 3,5% a Cox y un 0,31% a Poisson. Por otro lado, el 12,8% de las normas de autor de las revistas revisadas recomendaban explícitamente seguir la guía STROBE, y el 35,9%, la guía CONSORT. Conclusiones. Los modelos de regresión multivariantes en estudios observacionales publicados, tales como la regresión logística, lineal, Cox y Poisson, son cada vez más utilizados tanto a nivel global como en revistas publicadas en lengua española. Además, un porcentaje bajo de las revistas científicas españolas indexadas en PubMed incluyen en las normas de autoría el requerimiento de la guía STROBE (AU)

Background. In medicine and biomedical research, statistical techniques like logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression are widely known. The main objective is to describe the evolution of multivariate techniques used in observational studies indexed in PubMed (1970-2013), and to check the requirements of the STROBE guidelines in the author guidelines in Spanish journals indexed in PubMed. Methods. A targeted PubMed search was performed to identify papers that used logistic linear Cox and Poisson models. Furthermore, a review was also made of the author guidelines of journals published in Spain and indexed in PubMed and Web of Science. Results. Only 6.1% of the indexed manuscripts included a term related to multivariate analysis, increasing from 0.14% in 1980 to 12.3% in 2013. In 2013, 6.7, 2.5, 3.5, and 0.31% of the manuscripts contained terms related to logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression, respectively. On the other hand, 12.8% of journals author guidelines explicitly recommend to follow the STROBE guidelines, and 35.9% recommend the CONSORT guideline. Conclusions. A low percentage of Spanish scientific journals indexed in PubMed include the STROBE statement requirement in the author guidelines. Multivariate regression models in published observational studies such as logistic regression, linear, Cox and Poisson are increasingly used both at international level, as well as in journals published in Spanish (AU)

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 European countries by 2020

Background. We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010. Methods. BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. Results. The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. Conclusions. For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted (AU)

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