Avoiding lead-time bias by estimating stage-specific proportions of cancer and non-cancer deaths.

PURPOSE: Understanding how stage at cancer diagnosis influences cause of death, an endpoint that is not susceptible to lead-time bias, can inform population-level outcomes of cancer screening. METHODS: Using data from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for 1,154,515 persons aged 50-84 years at cancer diagnosis in 2006-2010, we evaluated proportional causes of death by cancer type and uniformly classified stage, following or extrapolating all patients until death through 2020. RESULTS: Most cancer patients diagnosed at stages I-II did not go on to die from their index cancer, whereas most patients diagnosed at stage IV did. For patients diagnosed with any cancer at stages I-II, an estimated 26% of deaths were due to the index cancer, 63% due to non-cancer causes, and 12% due to a subsequent primary (non-index) cancer. In contrast, for patients diagnosed with any stage IV cancer, 85% of deaths were attributed to the index cancer, with 13% non-cancer and 2% non-index-cancer deaths. Index cancer mortality from stages I-II cancer was proportionally lowest for thyroid, melanoma, uterus, prostate, and breast, and highest for pancreas, liver, esophagus, lung, and stomach. CONCLUSION: Across all cancer types, the percentage of patients who went on to die from their cancer was over three times greater when the cancer was diagnosed at stage IV than stages I-II. As mortality patterns are not influenced by lead-time bias, these data suggest that earlier detection is likely to improve outcomes across cancer types, including those currently unscreened.

Variation in patterns of second primary malignancies across U.S. race and ethnicity groups: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) analysis.

PURPOSE: One in six incident cancers in the U.S. is a second primary cancer (SPC). Although primary cancers vary considerably by race and ethnicity, little is known about the population-based occurrence of SPC across these groups. METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 12 data and relative to the general population, we calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for SPC among 2,457,756 Hispanics, non-Hispanic Asian American/Pacific Islanders (NHAAPI), non-Hispanic black (NHB), and non-Hispanic whites (NHW) cancer survivors aged 45 years or older when diagnosed with a first primary cancer (FPC) from 1992 to 2015. RESULTS: The risk of second primary bladder cancer after first primary prostate cancer was higher than expected in Hispanic (SIR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01-1.38) and NHAAPI (SIR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.20-1.65) men than NHB and NHW men. Among women with a primary breast cancer, Hispanic, NHAAPI, and NHB women had a nearly 1.5-fold higher risk of a second primary breast cancer, while NHW women had a 6% lower risk. Among men with prostate cancer whose SPC was diagnosed 2 to <12 months, NHB men were at higher risk for colorectal cancer and Hispanic and NHW men for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. In the same time frame for breast cancer survivors, Hispanic and NHAAPI women were significantly more likely than NHB and NHW women to be diagnosed with a second primary lung cancer. CONCLUSION: Future studies of SPC should investigate the role of shared etiologies, stage of diagnosis, treatment, and lifestyle factors after cancer survival across different racial and ethnic populations.

Key risk factors for the relative and absolute 5-year risk of cancer to enhance cancer screening and prevention.

BACKGROUND: This study identifies populations who may benefit most from expanded cancer screening. METHODS: Two American Cancer Society prospective cohort studies, Cancer Prevention Study-II Nutrition Cohort and Cancer Prevention Study-3, were used to identify the risk factors associated with a > 2% absolute risk of any cancer within 5 years. In total, 429,991 participants with no prior personal history of cancer were followed for cancer for up to 5 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for association. By using these hazard ratios, individualized coherent absolute risk estimation was used to calculate absolute risks by age. RESULTS: Overall, 15,226 invasive cancers were diagnosed among participants within 5 years of enrollment. The multivariable-adjusted relative risk of any cancer was strongest for current smokers compared with never-smokers. In men, alcohol intake, family history of cancer, red meat consumption, and physical inactivity were also associated with risk (p < .05). In women, body mass index, type 2 diabetes, hysterectomy, parity, family history of cancer, hypertension, tubal ligation, and physical inactivity were associated (p < .05). The absolute 5-year risk exceeded 2% among nearly all participants older than 50 years and among some participants younger than 50 years, including current or former smokers (<30 years since quitting) and long-term nonsmokers with a body mass index >25 kg/m2 or a first-degree family history of cancer. The absolute 5-year risk was as high as 29% in men and 25% in women. CONCLUSIONS: Older age and smoking were the two most important risk factors associated with the relative and absolute 5-year risk of developing any cancer.

Anaplastic large cell lymphoma in human immunodeficiency virus-infected people and solid organ transplant recipients.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people and solid organ transplant recipients have elevated risk of anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL). Little is known regarding ALCL risk factors in immunosuppressed populations. We used data from US cancer registries linked to HIV registries (1996-2016) and to the national transplant registry (1992-2017). ALCL risk in HIV-infected people and transplant recipients relative to the general population was calculated as a standardized incidence ratio (SIR). ALCL risk factors were evaluated using Poisson regression. We identified 121 incident ALCL cases in the HIV (n = 86) and transplant (n = 35) populations. We reviewed pathology reports for 45 cases and most (86·7%) were confirmed as ALCL. Epstein-Barr virus tested positive in 1/8 (12·5%) cases. Compared to the general population, ALCL risk was strongly elevated among HIV-infected people [SIR 5·43; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4·27-6·81] and transplant recipients (5·96; 4·03-8·49). Among HIV-infected people, ALCL incidence was strongly related to CD4 count [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 0·15 for ≥500 vs. <200 cells/µl; P trend < 0·001]. Among transplant recipients, risk was highest within the first year (aIRR 6·82) and 10+ years post-transplant (5·99). In conclusion, ALCL risk is strongly increased in these immunosuppressed populations but may be unrelated to EBV infection based on limited reports.

Magnitude of reduction in risk of second contralateral breast cancer with bilateral mastectomy in patients with breast cancer: Data from California, 1998 through 2015.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, patients with breast cancer undergo bilateral mastectomy (BLM). To the authors' knowledge, the magnitude of benefit is unknown. METHODS: The authors used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program regarding all women diagnosed with American Joint Committee on Cancer stage 0 to stage III unilateral breast cancer in California from 1998 through 2015 and treated with BLM versus breast-conserving therapy including surgery and radiotherapy (BCT) or unilateral mastectomy (ULM). The authors measured relative risks of second contralateral breast cancer (CBC) and breast cancer death using Fine and Gray multivariable regression modeling adjusted for the competing risk of death and death from another cause, respectively, and potential confounding factors. Absolute excess risk of CBC was measured as the observed minus expected number of breast cancers in the general population divided by 10,000 person-years at risk. RESULTS: Among 245,418 patients with a median follow-up of 6.7 years, 7784 patients (3.2%) developed CBC. Relative risks were lower after BLM (hazard ratio [HR], 0.10; 95% CI, 0.07-0.14) and higher after ULM (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.13) versus BCT. Absolute excess risks were higher after BCT and ULM (5.0 and 13.6 more cases, respectively) compared with BLM (28.6 fewer cases). BLM reduced risk more among older women (38.0 fewer cases for women aged ≥50 years vs 17.9 fewer cases among women aged <50 years) but provided similar risk reduction across categories of tumor grade and tumor hormone receptor status. Compared with BCT, the risk of breast cancer death was equivalent after BLM (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.96-1.11) and higher after ULM (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.17-1.25). CONCLUSIONS: BLM may reduce second breast cancer risk by 34 to 43 cases per 10,000 person-years compared with other surgical procedures, but is not associated with a lower risk of death. Second breast cancers are rare, and their reduction should be weighed against the harms associated with BLM.

Risk of Kaposi sarcoma after solid organ transplantation in the United States.

Due to treatment with immunosuppressive medications, solid organ transplant recipients have elevated risk for Kaposi sarcoma (KS), which is caused by human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8). Other risk factors for KS are poorly understood. We linked the United States solid organ transplant registry with 17 population-based cancer registries to ascertain KS incidence among 244,964 transplant recipients from 1987-2014. To compare incidence rates of KS according to patient and transplant characteristics, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression. To compare associations of KS with other skin cancers occurring before or within 12 months of KS diagnosis, we computed odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using conditional logistic regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. We identified 163 KS cases during follow-up. Among transplant recipients, we found significantly increased risk of KS associated with male sex (IRR = 1.87; 95%CI:1.32,2.71), nonwhite race (IRR = 2.67; 95%CI:1.92,3.72), non-US citizenship (IRR = 2.10; 95%CI:1.19,3.47), lung transplant (IRR = 2.22; 95%CI:1.03,4.24, vs. kidney), and older age at transplant. KS risk decreased significantly with time since transplant and recent calendar year, however, no specific induction or maintenance medication was associated with KS. KS incidence was not significantly associated with ambient ultraviolet radiation (IRR = 1.32 95%CI:0.87,2.02, tertile 3 vs. 1). KS incidence has decreased in recent calendar years. In a cross-sectional sample, we found cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma was associated with KS (OR = 4.83; 95%CI:1.30,14.69). KS risk factors included those potentially associated with HHV8 infection and increased immunosuppression. Our findings suggest that transplant recipients with a non-KS skin cancer may also be at high KS risk.

Risk of oral tongue cancer among immunocompromised transplant recipients and human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Oral tongue cancer incidence has increased among whites in the United States; however, the cause remains unknown. If an infectious agent is implicated, then elevated risk would be expected among immunosuppressed individuals. METHODS: By using population-based registry linkage information from the US Transplant Cancer Match and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) Cancer Match studies, the authors examined the risk of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among immunocompromised transplantation recipients and HIV-infected individuals. In addition, the risks of oropharyngeal SCC (strongly related to human papillomavirus infection; modestly affected by immunosuppression), other tobacco/alcohol-related oral cavity SCCs (not thought to be infection/immunosuppression-related), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma of oral cavity/pharynx (strongly related to Epstein-Barr virus; profoundly affected by immunosuppression) were evaluated. RESULTS: Compared with the general population, the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was strongly increased (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] > 8.0). The risk of all SCCs was modestly and similarly elevated among transplantation recipients (SIR range, 2.2-2.7; Pheterogeneity = .2); whereas, among HIV-infected individuals, the risk of oral tongue SCC was higher compared with the risk of other SCCs (SIR, 3.0 vs 1.7 [for oropharyngeal SCCs] and 2.3 [for other oral cavity SCCs]; Pheterogeneity < .001). The risk of SCCs was significantly higher among men, older individuals, and whites; and risk increased with the time since transplantation/AIDS onset. The risk of oral tongue SCC was significantly higher among HIV-infected men who have sex with men compared with the average risk in HIV-infected individuals (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0). CONCLUSIONS: Similar modest increases in the risk of oral tongue and other oral cavity SCCs do not suggest that an infectious agent or exposure profoundly affected by immunosuppression underlies the increase in oral tongue cancer. Cancer 2018;124:2515-22. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Characterizing the neighborhood obesogenic environment in the Multiethnic Cohort: a multi-level infrastructure for cancer health disparities research.

PURPOSE: We characterized the neighborhood obesogenic environment in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) by examining the associations of obesity with attributes of the social and built environment, establishing a multi-level infrastructure for future cancer research. METHODS: For 102,906 African American, Japanese American, Latino, and white MEC participants residing predominately in Los Angeles County, baseline residential addresses (1993-1996) were linked to census and geospatial data, capturing neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES), population density, commuting, food outlets, amenities, walkability, and traffic density. We examined neighborhood attributes and obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2) associations using multinomial logistic regression, adjusting for individual-level (e.g., demographics, physical activity, and diet) and neighborhood-level factors. RESULTS: NSES was associated with obesity among African Americans, Latinos, and whites (p-trend ≤ 0.02), with twofold higher odds (adjusted odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals) for living in the lowest versus highest quintile among African American women (2.07, 1.62-2.65), white men (2.11, 1.29-3.44), and white women (2.50, 1.73-3.61). Lower density of businesses among African American and white women and lower traffic density among white men were also associated with obesity (p-trends ≤ 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights differential impacts of neighborhood factors across racial/ethnic groups and establishes the foundation for multi-level studies of the neighborhood context and obesity-related cancers.

Pediatric neuro-oncology survival disparities in California.

The objective of this study was to investigate racial/ethnic differences in survival for pediatric high-grade glioma (HGG) and medulloblastoma in the state of California. We obtained data from the California Cancer Registry on 552 high-grade glioma patients (110 brainstem, 442 non-brainstem) and 648 medulloblastoma patients ages 0-19 years from 1988 to 2012. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, we examined the impact of individual and neighborhood characteristics on survival. Socioeconomic quintile and insurance status differed significantly by race for both diagnoses. Hispanic children with non-brainstem HGG had worse survival than non-Hispanic white children: hazard ratio (HR) 1.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24-2.11, but the difference was mitigated some by accounting for socioeconomic status (HR 1.48, CI 1.10-1.99). Racial/ethnic differences in survival exist for children with high-grade glioma, particularly Hispanic children with non-brainstem high-grade glioma, and are likely related to sociologic factors.

Regular and low-dose aspirin, other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medications and prospective risk of HER2-defined breast cancer: the California Teachers Study.

BACKGROUND: Regular users of aspirin may have reduced risk of breast cancer. Few studies have addressed whether risk reduction pertains to specific breast cancer subtypes defined jointly by hormone receptor (estrogen and progesterone receptor) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) expression. This study assessed the prospective risk of breast cancer (overall and by subtype) according to use of aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medications (NSAIDs) in a cohort of female public school professionals in California. METHODS: In 1995 - 1996, participants in the California Teachers Study completed a baseline questionnaire on family history of cancer and other conditions, use of NSAIDs, menstrual and reproductive history, self-reported weight and height, living environment, diet, alcohol use, and physical activity. In 2005-2006, 57,164 participants provided some updated information, including use of NSAIDs and 1457 of these participants developed invasive breast cancer before January 2013. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models provided hazard rate ratios (HRR) for the association between NSAID use and risk of invasive breast cancer as well as hormone receptor- and HER2-defined subtypes. RESULTS: Developing breast cancer was associated inversely with taking three or more tablets of low-dose aspirin per week (23% of participants). Among women reporting this exposure, the HRR was 0.84 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.98) compared to those not taking NSAIDs and this was particularly evident in women with the hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative subtype (HRR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.96). Use of three or more tablets of "other" NSAIDs was marginally associated with lower risk of breast cancer (HRR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.62-1.00). Other associations with NSAIDs were generally null. CONCLUSION: Our observation of reduced risk of breast cancer, among participants who took three or more tablets of low-dose aspirin weekly, is consistent with other reports looking at aspirin without differentiation by dose. This is the first report to suggest that the reduction in risk occurs for low-dose aspirin and not for regular-dose aspirin and only among women with the hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative subtype. This preliminary study builds on previous knowledge and further supports the need for formal cancer chemoprevention studies of low-dose aspirin.

Contribution of solid organ transplant recipients to the pediatric non-hodgkin lymphoma burden in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric solid organ transplant recipients have a 100 to 200 times higher risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) than the general pediatric population. Consequently, transplant-related NHL may contribute considerably to the pediatric NHL burden in the United States. METHODS: A cohort study using a linkage between the US transplant registry and 16 cancer registries was conducted. Cancer incidence rates were calculated for people less than 20 years old in the transplant and general populations. Rates were applied to transplant registry and US census data to estimate pediatric NHL counts for transplant recipients and the general population. RESULTS: During 1990-2012, an estimated 22,270 NHLs were diagnosed in US children and adolescents; they included 628 cases diagnosed in transplant recipients. Thus, 2.82% of pediatric NHL diagnoses in the general population (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.45%-3.19%) occurred in transplant recipients. Among transplant recipients, the most common subtypes were diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL; 64.5% of cases) and Burkitt lymphoma (BL; 8.6%). For DLBCL and BL, transplant recipients contributed 7.62% (95% CI, 6.35%-8.88%) and 0.87% (95% CI, 0.51%-1.23%) of diagnoses, respectively. The proportion of NHLs that occurred in transplant recipients was highest among children less than 5 years old (4.46%; 95% CI, 3.24%-5.69%) and in more recent calendar years (3.73% in 2010-2012; 95% CI, 2.07%-5.39%). DLBCL patterns were similar, with transplant recipients contributing 19.78% of cases among children less than 5 years old (95% CI, 12.89%-26.66%) and 11.4% of cases in 2010-2012 (95% CI, 5.54%-17.28%). CONCLUSIONS: Among children and adolescents, solid organ transplant recipients contribute a substantial fraction of NHL diagnoses, particularly DLBCL diagnoses. This fraction has increased over time. Prevention efforts targeted toward this group could reduce the overall pediatric NHL burden. Cancer 2017;123:4663-4671. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Subsequent primary malignancies after diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the modern treatment era.

With the addition of rituximab and other treatment advances, survival after diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has improved, but subsequent primary malignancies (SPMs) have emerged as an important challenge for DLBCL survivorship. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for SPMs among 23 879 patients who survived at least 1 year after a first primary DLBCL diagnosed during 1989-2012, compared to the general population in California. Cumulative incidence (CMI) of SPMs, accounting for the competing risk of death, also was calculated. We found that the incidence of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) nearly doubled in the post-rituximab era [SIR (95% CI) 4·39 (2·51-7·13) pre- (1989-2000) and 8·70 (6·62-11·22) post-rituximab (2001-2012)]. Subsequent thyroid cancer was rare pre-rituximab, but increased substantially after 2001 [0·66 (0·08-2·37) vs. 2·27(1·44-3·41)]. The 5-year CMI for all SPMs (4·77% pre- vs. 5·41% post-rituximab, P = 0·047), AML (0·15% vs. 0·41%, P = 0·003), thyroid cancer (0·03% vs. 0·15%, P = 0·003) and melanoma (0·25% vs. 0·42%, P = 0·020) were greater in DLBCL patients diagnosed in the post- versus pre-rituximab period. This study provides insight into the changing pattern of SPM occurrence after the introduction of rituximab, which may elucidate the aetiology of SPMs and should guide future cancer surveillance efforts among DLBCL patients.

Rising Bilateral Mastectomy Rates Among Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Recipients in California From 1998 to 2012.

OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of rising bilateral mastectomy rates among neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) recipients in California. BACKGROUND: NAC for operable breast cancer (BC) can downstage disease and facilitate breast conservation. We assessed trends in NAC use and surgical procedures in California from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2012 using statewide population-based cancer registry data. METHODS: A total of 236,797 females diagnosed with stage I-III BC were studied. Information regarding NAC, adjuvant chemotherapy (aCT), breast conserving surgery (BCS), bilateral mastectomy (BLM), and unilateral mastectomy (ULM) was abstracted from the medical records. Multivariable polytomous logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) of receiving NAC and of type of surgery after NAC. RESULTS: Approximately, 40.1% (94,980) of patients received chemotherapy: 87% (82,588) aCT and 13.0% (12,392) NAC. NAC use more than doubled over time and increased with stage (Stage I, 0.7%; Stage III, 29.9%). Multivariable predictors of NAC treatment were stage (III), younger age (<40 yrs), Black or Hispanic race/ethnicity versus non-Hispanic White (OR 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.16), and care at a National Cancer Institute (NCI)-designated center (OR 1.70, CI 1.58-1.82). Most NAC recipients (68.4%) had mastectomies, and 14.3% of them underwent BLM. In contrast, 47.9% aCT patients had mastectomies with 7.3% BLM. The only independent predictor of BCS after NAC was care at a NCI-designated center (OR 1.28, CI 1.10-1.49), and of BLM, age <40 years versus 50 to 64 years (OR 2.59, CI 2.21-3.03), or residence in the highest socioeconomic neighborhood quintile versus lowest (OR 2.10, CI 1.67-2.64). CONCLUSIONS: NAC use remains low. Predictors of surgery type after NAC were sociodemographic rather than clinical, raising concern for disparities in care access.

Incorporating Tumor Characteristics to the American Joint Committee on Cancer Breast Cancer Staging System.

BACKGROUND: The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) breast cancer staging system provides important prognostic information. The recently published eighth edition incorporates biological markers and recommends the use of a complex "prognostic stage." In this study, we assessed the relationship between stage, breast cancer subtype, grade, and outcome in a large population-based cohort and evaluated a risk score system incorporating tumor characteristic to the AJCC anatomic staging system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with primary breast cancer stage I-IV between 2005-2008 were identified in the California Cancer Registry. For patients with stage I-III disease, pathologic stage was recorded. For patients with stage IV disease, clinical stage was utilized. Five-year breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) and overall survival (OS) rates were determined for each potential tumor size-node involvement-metastases (TNM) combination according to breast cancer subtype. A risk score point-based system using grade, estrogen receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status was designed to complement the anatomic AJCC staging system. Survival probabilities between groups were compared using log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models were used. RESULTS: Among 43,938 patients, we observed differences in 5-year BCSS and OS for each TNM combination according to breast cancer subtype. The most favorable outcomes were seen for hormone receptor-positive tumors followed closely by HER2-positive tumors, with the worst outcomes observed for triple negative breast cancer. Our risk score system separated patients into four risk groups within each stage category (all p < .05). CONCLUSION: Our simple risk score system incorporates biological factors into the AJCC anatomic staging system, providing accurate prognostic information. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This study demonstrates that stage, but also breast cancer subtype and grade, define prognosis in a large population of breast cancer patients. It shows that a point-based risk score system that incorporates these biological factors provides refined stratification and information on prognosis, improving the anatomic American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. In addition, the overall mortality and breast cancer specific mortality rates detailed here provide much-needed information about prognosis in the current era, refining the current AJCC staging.

Breast cancer in Asian Americans in California, 1988-2013: increasing incidence trends and recent data on breast cancer subtypes.

PURPOSE: In contrast to other US racial/ethnic groups, Asian Americans (AA) have experienced steadily increasing breast cancer rates in recent decades. To better understand potential contributors to this increase, we examined incidence trends by age and stage among women from seven AA ethnic groups in California from 1988 to 2013, and incidence patterns by subtype and age at diagnosis for the years 2009 through 2013. METHODS: Joinpoint regression was applied to California Cancer Registry data to calculate annual percentage change (APC) for incidence trends. Incidence rate ratios were used to compare rates for AA ethnic groups relative to non-Hispanic whites (NHW). RESULTS: All AA groups except Japanese experienced incidence increases, with the largest among Koreans in 1988-2006 (APC 4.7, 95% CI 3.8, 5.7) and Southeast Asians in 1988-2013 (APC 2.5, 95% CI 0.8, 4.2). Among women younger than age 50, large increases occurred for Vietnamese and other Southeast Asians; among women over age 50, increasing trends occurred in all AA ethnic groups. Rates increased for distant-stage disease among Filipinas (2.2% per year, 95% CI 0.4, 3.9). Compared to NHW, Filipinas and older Vietnamese had higher incidence rates of some HER2+ subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer incidence rates have risen rapidly among California AA, with the greatest increases in Koreans and Southeast Asians. Culturally tailored efforts to increase awareness of and attention to breast cancer risk factors are needed. Given the relatively higher rates of HER2-overexpressing subtypes in some AA ethnicities, research including these groups and their potentially unique exposures may help elucidate disease etiology.

Variation in risk and outcomes of Epstein-Barr virus-associated breast cancer by epidemiologic characteristics and virus detection strategies: an exploratory study.

PURPOSE: A relationship of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and breast cancer etiology and outcome may have clinical utility and potential to enhance understanding of tumor biology. Research to date has yielded variable results, likely reflecting differing virus detection assays and unaddressed epidemiologic heterogeneity across studies. METHODS: Applying our novel, five-target assay detection strategy in an exploratory study, we examined demographic, clinical, and tumor characteristics, and overall survival, associated with EBV positivity in breast adenocarcinomas from 59 non-Hispanic white and 68 Hispanic women sampled by age (<50, 50+) and stage (localized, regional/remote) and examined associations based on single assay targets. RESULTS: EBV was localized only to lymphocytes. Nevertheless, viral prevalence, although low, varied across patient subgroups. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) for EBV positivity were lower for younger Hispanic than white women (p interaction = 0.05), and marginally higher for larger [OR (95% confidence intervals) 1.03 (1.00-1.05) per mm increase] and right-sided [2.8 (0.97-7.8)] tumors. In whites, ORs were marginally higher for larger tumors [1.04 (1.00-1.07)] and marginally lower for age 50+ [0.24 (0.06-1.03)]; in Hispanics, ORs were higher for ER negative [5.6 (1.1-30.5)], and marginally higher for right-sided, tumors [5.8 (0.94-36.2)]. Survival was suggestively poorer for EBV-positive than EBV-negative tumors in older women with localized disease. EBV associations differed across single assay targets, indicating variation in prior findings likely due to assay performance. CONCLUSIONS: The differing EBV associations by age and race/ethnicity suggest a non-random role of EBV in breast cancer and support further study using multi-target assays, relevant epidemiologic design, and a larger study sample.

Recent declines in cancer incidence: related to the Great Recession?

PURPOSE: In recent years, cancer case counts in the U.S. underwent a large, rapid decline-an unexpected change given population growth for older persons at highest cancer risk. As these declines coincided with the Great Recession, we examined whether they were related to economic conditions. METHODS: Using California Cancer Registry data from California's 30 most populous counties, we analyzed trends in cancer incidence during pre-recession (1996-2007) and recession/recovery (2008-2012) periods for all cancers combined and the ten most common sites. We evaluated the recession's association with rates using a multifactorial index that measured recession impact, and modeled associations between case counts and county-level unemployment rates using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Yearly cancer incidence rate declines were greater during the recession/recovery (3.3% among males, 1.4% among females) than before (0.7 and 0.5%, respectively), particularly for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers. Lower case counts, especially for prostate and liver cancer among males and breast cancer, melanoma, and ovarian cancer among females, were associated with higher unemployment rates, irrespective of time period, but independent of secular effects. The associations for melanoma translated up to a 3.6% decrease in cases with each 1% increase in unemployment. Incidence declines were not greater in counties with higher recession impact index. CONCLUSIONS: Although recent declines in incidence of certain cancers are not differentially impacted by economic conditions related to the Great Recession relative to pre-recession conditions, the large recent absolute declines in the case counts of some cancer may be attributable to the large declines in unemployment in the recessionary period. This may occur through decreased engagement in preventive health behaviors, particularly for clinically less urgent cancers. Continued monitoring of trends is important to detect any rises in incidence rates as deferred diagnoses come to clinical attention.

Bioscore: A Staging System for Breast Cancer Patients that Reflects the Prognostic Significance of Underlying Tumor Biology.

BACKGROUND: Biologic factors guide treatment decisions and have a significant impact on prognosis for breast cancer patients. This study was undertaken to develop a staging system incorporating biologic factors in addition to standard anatomic factors in the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) pathologic stage (PS) to assess disease-specific survival (DSS). METHODS: Overall, 3327 patients treated with surgery as an initial intervention at MD Anderson Cancer Center from 2007 to 2013 were identified. Multivariate analyses of factors, including PS, T stage (T), nodal stage (N), grade (G), estrogen receptor (ER) status (E) and human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2) status (H) were performed to identify associations with DSS. A score of 0-4 was assigned for each factor by considering the hazard ratio magnitude. Multiple staging system models were then constructed: PS, PS + G, PS + G + E, PS + G + E + H, T + N, T + N + G, T + N + G + E, and T + N + G + E + H. Model performance was quantified using Harrell's concordance index, and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to compare model fits. Comparable cases from California (n = 67,944) were used for validation. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 5.0 years (range 0.1-8.8) and 5-year DSS was 97.9% (95% confidence interval 97.3-98.4). Models incorporating grade, ER status, and HER2 status were most precise with identical C-index (0.81) and comparable AIC (994.9 for PS + G + E + H and 987.8 for T + N + G + E + H). Both models were externally validated. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the importance of biologic factors in determining prognosis for breast cancer patients. We propose the Bioscore, which incorporates grade, ER and HER2 status with AJCC PS, to provide more refined stratification of breast cancer patients undergoing surgery as an initial intervention with respect to DSS.

Variation in Cancer Incidence among Patients with ESRD during Kidney Function and Nonfunction Intervals.

Among patients with ESRD, cancer risk is affected by kidney dysfunction and by immunosuppression after transplant. Assessing patterns across periods of dialysis and kidney transplantation may inform cancer etiology. We evaluated 202,195 kidney transplant candidates and recipients from a linkage between the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and cancer registries, and compared incidence in kidney function intervals (time with a transplant) with incidence in nonfunction intervals (waitlist or time after transplant failure), adjusting for demographic factors. Incidence of infection-related and immune-related cancer was higher during kidney function intervals than during nonfunction intervals. Incidence was most elevated for Kaposi sarcoma (hazard ratio [HR], 9.1; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 4.7 to 18), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.8 to 3.7), Hodgkin's lymphoma (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.7 to 5.3), lip cancer (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.0 to 6.0), and nonepithelial skin cancers (HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.5 to 5.8). Conversely, ESRD-related cancer incidence was lower during kidney function intervals (kidney cancer: HR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7 to 0.8 and thyroid cancer: HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6 to 0.8). With each successive interval, incidence changed in alternating directions for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, melanoma, and lung, pancreatic, and nonepithelial skin cancers (higher during function intervals), and kidney and thyroid cancers (higher during nonfunction intervals). For many cancers, incidence remained higher than in the general population across all intervals. These data indicate strong short-term effects of kidney dysfunction and immunosuppression on cancer incidence in patients with ESRD, suggesting a need for persistent cancer screening and prevention.

Recreational physical activity and risk of triple negative breast cancer in the California Teachers Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence has accumulated showing that recreational physical activity reduces breast cancer risk. However, it is unclear whether risk reduction pertains to specific receptor-defined subtypes. Moreover, few studies have examined whether changes in the amount of recreational physical activity during adulthood influence breast cancer risk. METHODS: A total of 108,907 women, ages 22 to 79 years with no history of breast cancer when joining the California Teachers Study in 1995-1996, completed a baseline questionnaire and were eligible for the study. Through 2012, 5882 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. Breast cancer subtypes were defined by the expression status of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models provided adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer overall and ER/PR/HER2-defined subtypes associated with long-term (from high school through age 54 or age at cohort entry, whichever was younger) and baseline (during 3 years prior to baseline) recreational physical activity. Among women who also completed a follow-up questionnaire at 10 years after baseline in 2005-2008 (54,686 women, 1406 with invasive breast cancer), risk associated with changes in the amount of recreational physical activity from baseline to the 10-year follow-up (during 3 years prior to the 10-year follow-up) was determined. RESULTS: Both long-term and baseline strenuous recreational physical activity were inversely associated with risk of invasive breast cancer (P trend ≤0.03). The observed associations were mainly confined to women with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC, ER-/PR-/HER2-, P trend ≤0.02) or luminal A-like subtype (ER+ or PR+ plus HER2-) who were former users of menopausal hormone therapy at baseline (P trend = 0.02, P homogeneity of trends ≤0.03). Moreover, women who consistently engaged in the highest level (≥3.51 h/wk/y) of strenuous recreational physical activity between baseline and 10-year follow-up had the lowest risk of breast cancer (HR = 0.71, 95 % CI = 0.52-0.98) when compared to those who were consistently low (≤0.50 h/wk/y). CONCLUSIONS: Strenuous recreational physical activity is associated with lower breast cancer risk, especially TNBC. The benefit may be maximized by consistently engaging in high-intensity recreational physical activity during adulthood.