What is the benefit of prophylaxis to prevent HBV reactivation in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients? Meta-analysis and decision curve analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with overt or occult hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection receiving immunosuppressive treatments have a wide risk of HBV reactivation (HBVr). We performed meta-analysis with decision curve analyses (DCA) to estimate the risk of HBVr in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients naïve to nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) receiving immunosuppressive treatments. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Studies were identified through literature search until October 2022. Pooled estimates were obtained using random-effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed according to underlying disease and immunosuppressive treatments. DCA was used to identify the threshold probability associated with the net benefit of antiviral prophylaxis in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients. We selected 68 studies (40 retrospective and 28 prospective), including 8034 patients with HBsAg negative anti-HBc positive. HBVr was 4% (95% CI 3%-6%) in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients, with a significantly high heterogeneity (I2 69%; p < .01). The number-needed-to-treat (NNT) by DCA ranged from 8 to 24 for chemotherapy plus rituximab, from 12 to 24 for targeted therapies in cancer patients and from 13 to 39 for immune-mediated diseases. Net benefit was small for monoclonal antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: Our DCA in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients provided evidence that NA prophylaxis is strongly recommended in patients treated with chemotherapy combined with rituximab and could be appropriate in patients with cancer treated with targeted therapies and in patients with immune-mediated diseases. Finally, in patients with cancer treated with monoclonal antibodies or with chemotherapy without rituximab, the net benefit is even lower.

Hepatitis D double reflex testing of all hepatitis B carriers in low-HBV- and high-HBV/HDV-prevalence countries.

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021. Only 1,994,000 of the HBV infections were newly diagnosed in 2021, with more than half of the new diagnoses made in China. Our initial estimates indicated a much lower prevalence of HDV antibody (anti-HDV) and HDV RNA positivity than previously reported in published studies. Accurate estimates of HDV prevalence are needed. The most effective method to generate estimates of the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity and to find undiagnosed individuals at the national level is to implement double reflex testing. This requires anti-HDV testing of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive individuals and HDV RNA testing of all anti-HDV-positive individuals. This strategy is manageable for healthcare systems since the number of newly diagnosed HBV cases is low. At the global level, a comprehensive HDV screening strategy would require only 1,994,000 HDV antibody tests and less than 89,000 HDV PCR tests. Double reflex testing is the preferred strategy in countries with a low prevalence of HBV and those with a high prevalence of both HBV and HDV. For example, in the European Union and North America only 35,000 and 22,000 cases, respectively, will require anti-HDV testing annually.

AGILE 3+ Score for the Diagnosis of Advanced Fibrosis and for Predicting Liver-related Events in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of AGILE 3+, a recently developed score based on the combination of aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, platelet count, diabetes status, sex, age, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography, when compared with Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and LSM, for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis and for the prediction of liver-related events (LREs) occurrence in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: A total of 614 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD or clinical diagnosis of NAFLD-related compensated cirrhosis were enrolled. LREs were recorded during follow-up. FIB-4, LSM by transient elastography (FibroScan device), and AGILE 3+ were measured. The diagnostic performance of noninvasive criteria for advanced fibrosis and for the prediction of LREs was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: In patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD (n = 520), LSM and AGILE 3+ had higher AUROC than FIB-4 (0.88 for LSM and AGILE 3+ vs 0.78 for FIB-4; P < .001) for advanced fibrosis, and AGILE 3+ exhibited a smaller indeterminate area in the test (25.2% for FIB-4 vs 13.1% for LSM vs 8.3% for AGILE 3+). Within the entire cohort of patients, AGILE 3+ had significantly higher AUROC for predicting LREs with respect to LSM (AUROC 36 months 0.95 vs 0.93; P =.008; 60 months 0.95 vs 0.92; P = .006; 96 months 0.97 vs 0.95; P = .001). Decision curve analysis showed that all scores had modest net benefit for ruling-out advanced fibrosis at the risk threshold of 5% to 10% where advanced fibrosis was absent. At the risk threshold of 5% of false negatives or false positives in LRE at 36, 60, 96, and 120 months, AGILE 3+ outperformed both FIB-4 and LSM for ruling out LRE. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on resource availability, clinical setting, and the risk scenarios, AGILE 3+ is an accurate and valid alternative to FIB-4 and LSM for the noninvasive assessment of disease severity and prognosis in patients with NAFLD.

Forecasting the long-term impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Italy has a high HCV prevalence, and despite the approval of a dedicated fund for 'Experimental screening' for 2 years, screening has not been fully implemented. We aimed to evaluate the long-term impact of the persisting delay in HCV elimination after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Italy. METHODS: We used a mathematical, probabilistic modelling approach evaluating three hypothetical 'Inefficient', 'Efficient experimental' and 'WHO Target' screening scenarios differing by treatment rates over time. A Markov chain for liver disease progression evaluated the number of active infections, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV liver-related deaths up to the years 2030 and 2050. RESULTS: The 'WHO Target' scenario estimated 3900 patients with DC and 600 with HCC versus 4400 and 600 cases, respectively, similar for both 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' screening up to 2030. A sharp (10-fold) decrease in DC and HCC was estimated by the 'WHO Target' scenario compared with the other two scenarios in 2050; the forecasted number of DC was 420 cases versus 4200 and 3800 and of HCC <10 versus 600 and 400 HCC cases by 'WHO Target,' 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' scenarios, respectively. A significant decrease of the cumulative estimated number of liver-related deaths was observed up to 2050 by the 'WHO Target' scenario (52000) versus 'Inefficient' or 'Efficient experimental' scenarios (79 000 and 74 000 liver-related deaths, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates highlight the need to extensively and efficiently address HCV screening and cure of HCV infection in order to avoid the forecasted long-term HCV adverse outcomes in Italy.

Programmed cell death 1 genetic variant and liver damage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Programmed cell death 1/programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-1/PDL-1) axis has been reported to modulate liver inflammation and progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Here, we examined whether the PDCD1 variation is associated with NAFLD severity in individuals with liver biopsy. METHODS: We examined the impact of PDCD1 gene variants on HCC, as robust severe liver disease phenotype in UK Biobank participants. The strongest genetic association with the rs13023138 G>C variation was subsequently tested for association with liver damage in 2889 individuals who underwent liver biopsy for suspected nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Hepatic transcriptome was examined by RNA-Seq in a subset of NAFLD individuals (n = 121). Transcriptomic and deconvolution analyses were performed to identify biological pathways modulated by the risk allele. RESULTS: The rs13023138 C>G showed the most robust association with HCC in UK Biobank (p = 5.28E-4, OR = 1.32, 95% CI [1.1, 1.5]). In the liver biopsy cohort, rs13023138 G allele was independently associated with severe steatosis (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34; p = .01), NASH (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.37; p < .001) and advanced fibrosis (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.50; p = .007). At deconvolution analysis, rs13023138 G>C allele was linked to higher hepatic representation of M1 macrophages, paralleled by upregulation of pathways related to inflammation and higher expression of CXCR6. CONCLUSIONS: The PDCD1 rs13023138 G allele was associated with HCC development in the general population and with liver disease severity in patients at high risk of NASH.

Viral hepatitis elimination: Towards a hepatitis-free world.

Advances in diagnostics and therapeutics have brought the elimination of chronic viral hepatitis into focus. The World Health Organization has defined the targets for elimination, but it is unclear how these can be achieved and how they should be measured. The goal of this special conference was to examine current efforts and metrics to assess progress towards elimination.

RESIST-HCV Criteria to Monitor Progression of Low-Risk Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis After HCV Eradication: The SIMPLE Study: SIMPLE: Scoring Index to Monitor Progression of Low-risk Esophageal varices.

INTRODUCTION: Noninvasive criteria to predict the progression of low-risk esophageal varices (EV) in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis after sustained virological response (SVR) by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are lacking. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic performance of Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-HCV (RESIST-HCV) criteria for EV progression compared with elastography-based criteria (Baveno VI, Expanded Baveno VI, and Baveno VII-HCV criteria). METHODS: All consecutive patients observed at 3 referral centers with compensated HCV cirrhosis with or without F1 EV who achieved sustained virological response by DAAs were classified at last esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGDS) as RESIST-HCV low risk (i.e., low probability of high-risk varices [HRV]) if platelets were >120 × 10 9 /L and serum albumin >3.6 g/dL or RESIST-HCV high risk (i.e., high probability of HRV) if platelets were <120 × 10 9 /L or serum albumin <3.6 g/dL. The primary outcome was the progression to HRV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis of noninvasive criteria were calculated. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 353 patients in Child-Pugh class A (mean age 67.2 years, 53.8% males). During a mean follow-up of 44.2 months, 34 patients (9.6%, 95% CI 6.7%-13.5%) developed HRV. At the last EGDS, 178 patients (50.4%) were RESIST-low risk, and 175 (49.6%) were RESIST-high risk. RESIST-HCV criteria showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.75), correctly sparing the highest number of EGDS (54.3%), with the lowest false-positive rate (45.7%), compared with elastography-based criteria. Decision curve analysis showed that RESIST-HCV had higher clinical utility than elastography-based criteria. DISCUSSION: Biochemical-based RESIST-HCV criteria are useful to easily predict HRV development after HCV eradication by DAAs in patients with compensated cirrhosis and low-risk EV.

Optimizing diagnostic algorithms to advance Hepatitis C elimination in Italy: A cost effectiveness evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: Optimized diagnostic algorithms to detect active infections are crucial to achieving HCV elimination. We evaluated the cost effectiveness and sustainability of different algorithms for HCV active infection diagnosis, in a context of a high endemic country for HCV infection. METHODS: A Markov disease progression model, simulating six diagnostic algorithms in the birth cohort 1969-1989 over a 10-year horizon from a healthcare perspective was used. Conventionally diagnosis of active HCV infection is through detection of antibodies (HCV-Ab) detection followed by HCV-RNA or HCV core antigen (HCV-Ag) confirmatory testing either on a second sample or by same sample reflex testing. The undiagnosed and unconfirmed rates were evaluated by assays false negative estimates and each algorithm patients' drop-off. Age, liver disease stages distribution, liver disease stage costs, treatment effectiveness and costs were used to evaluate the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). RESULTS: The reference option was Rapid HCV-Ab followed by second sample HCV-Ag testing which produced the lowest QALYs (866,835 QALYs). The highest gains in health (QALYs=974,458) was obtained by HCV-RNA reflex testing which produced a high cost-effective ICER (€891/QALY). Reflex testing (same sample-single visit) vs two patients' visits algorithms, yielded the highest QALYs and high cost-effective ICERs (€566 and €635/QALY for HCV-Ag and HCV-RNA, respectively), confirmed in 99.9% of the 5,000 probabilistic simulations. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm, by a cost effectiveness point of view, the EASL and WHO clinical practice guidelines recommending HCV reflex testing as most cost effective diagnostic option vs other diagnostic pathways.

A cholestatic pattern predicts major liver-related outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: NAFLD patients usually have an increase in AST/ALT levels, but cholestasis can also be observed. We aimed to assess in subjects with NAFLD the impact of the (cholestatic) C pattern on the likelihood of developing major liver-related outcomes (MALO). METHODS: Five hundred and eighty-two consecutive patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD or a clinical diagnosis of NAFLD-related compensated cirrhosis were classified as hepatocellular (H), C and mixed (M) patterns, by using the formula (ALT/ALT Upper Limit of Normal-ULN)/(ALP/ALP ULN). MALO were recorded during follow-up. An external cohort of 1281 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients was enrolled as validation set. RESULTS: H, M and C patterns were found in 153 (26.3%), 272 (46.7%) and 157 (27%) patients respectively. During a median follow-up of 78 months, only 1 (0.6%) patient with H pattern experienced MALO, whilst 15 (5.5%) and 38 (24.2%) patients in M and C groups had MALO. At multivariate Cox regression analysis, age >55 years (HR 2.55, 95% CI 1.17-5.54; p = .01), platelets <150 000/mmc (HR 0.14, 95% CI 0.06-0.32; p < .001), albumin <4 g/L(HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.35-1.08; p = .09), C versus M pattern (HR 7.86, 95% CI 1.03-60.1; p = .04), C versus H pattern(HR 12.1, 95% CI 1.61-90.9; p = .01) and fibrosis F3-F4(HR 35.8, 95% CI 4.65-275.2; p < .001) were independent risk factors for MALO occurrence. C versus M pattern(HR 14.3, 95% CI 1.90-105.6; p = .008) and C versus H pattern (HR 15.6, 95% CI 2.10-115.1; p = .0068) were confirmed independently associated with MALO occurrence in the validation set. The immunohistochemical analysis found a significantly higher prevalence of moderate-high-grade ductular metaplasia combined with low-grade ductular proliferation in C pattern when compared with the biochemical H pattern. Gene expression analysis showed a lower expression of NR1H3, RXRα and VCAM1 in patients with the C pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of a cholestatic pattern in patients with NAFLD predicts a higher risk of MALO independently from other features of liver disease.

Meet-Test-Treat for HCV management: patients' and clinicians' preferences in hospital and drug addiction services in Italy.

BACKGROUND: It has been estimated that the incidence of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) will not decline over the next 10 years despite the improved efficacy of antiviral therapy because most patients remain undiagnosed and/or untreated. This study aimed to investigate the opinion of relevant target populations on the practicability, effectiveness and best modalities of the test-and-treat approach in the fight against HCV in Italy. METHODS: A survey was delivered to patients with HCV from the general population, patients from drug addiction services, hospital physicians and healthcare providers for drug addiction services. RESULTS: For both hospital clinicians and SerD HCPs, tolerability is shown as the most important feature of a suitable treatment. Time to treatment (the time from first contact to initiation of treatment) is deemed important to the success of the strategy by all actors. While a tolerable treatment was the main characteristic in a preferred care pathway for general patients, subjects from drug addiction services indicated that a complete Meet-Test-Treat pathway is delivered within the habitual care center as a main preference. This is also important for SerD HCPs who are a strong reference for their patients; hospital clinicians were less aware of the importance of the patient-HCP relationship in this process. CONCLUSION: The health system is bound to implement suitable pathways to facilitate HCV eradication. A Meet-Test-Treat program within the drug addiction services may provide good compliance from subjects mainly concerned with virus transmission.

A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions.

BACKGROUND: Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown. METHODS: A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0-F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentially symptomatic). RESULTS: By January 2020, it was estimated that there were 409,184 Italian individuals with HCV (prevalence of 0.68%; 95% CI: 0.54-0.82%), of which 300,171 (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.6%) were stage F0-F3. Considering all individuals with HCV in stage F0-F3, the geographical distributions (expressed as the proportion of HCV infected individuals by macroarea within the overall estimated number of F0-F3 individuals and prevalence values, expressed as the percentage of individuals with HCV versus the overall number of individuals for each macroarea) were as follows: North 42.1% (0.45%; 95% CI: 0.36-0.55%), Central 24.1% (0.61%; 95% CI: 0.48-0.74%), South 23.2% (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.61%), and the Isles 10.6% (0.49%; 95% CI: 0.39-0.59%). The population of people who inject drugs accounted for 50.4% of all individuals infected (F0-F3). Undiagnosed individuals (F0-F3) were ~ 15 years younger (⁓ 50 years) compared with patients with stage F4 (⁓ 65 years), with similar age distributions across macroareas. In contrast to what has been reported on HCV epidemiology in Italy, an increasing trend in the proportion of potentially undiagnosed individuals with HCV (absolute number within the F0-F3) from South (23.2%) to North (42.1%) emerged, independent of similar regional prevalence values. CONCLUSION: This targeted approach, which addresses the specific profile of undiagnosed individuals, is helpful in planning effective elimination strategies by region in Italy and could be a useful methodology for other countries in implementing their elimination plans.

Effect of pharmacological interventions and placebo on liver Histology in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: A network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were to quantify the histological improvement and its risk factors in patients with NASH enrolled in the placebo arms of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and to indirectly compare the effect of several investigational drugs for NASH on validated histological outcomes. DATA SYNTHESIS: A comprehensive search was conducted to detect phase 2 and 3 RCTs comparing pharmacological interventions in patients with NASH. According to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommendations, primary outcomes included: 1) NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis; 2) At least 1-point reduction in fibrosis without worsening of NASH. Meta-analysis and meta-regressions were conducted on placebo arms, while network meta-analysis was performed on intervention arms. A total of 15 RCTs met the eligibility criteria. The meta-analysis on placebo arms showed a pooled estimate rate of 17% (95%C.I. 12%-23%;I2 = 86%; p < 0.01) for NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis and of 21% (95%C.I. 13%-31%;I2 = 84%; p < 0.01) for ≥1stage improvement of fibrosis without worsening of NASH. Phase 3 (vs Phase 2)RCTs, older age and higher AST levels were significantly associated with progression of liver disease by univariate meta-regression. At network meta-analysis, Semaglutide (P-score 0.906), Pioglitazione alone (score 0.890) and plus Vitamin E (0.826) had the highest probability of being ranked the most effective intervention for NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis, while Aldafermin (0.776), Lanifibranor (0.773) and Obeticholic acid (0.771) had the highest probability to achieve ≥1 stage of fibrosis improvement without worsening of NASH. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the heterogeneity of histological progression of untreated patients with NASH and provides evidence to stratify patients according to identified risk factors in future RCTs of combination therapies. PROSPERO CRD42021287205.

Lifestyle versus ezetimibe plus lifestyle in patients with biopsy-proven non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (LISTEN): A double-blind randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The LISTEN trial (ClinicalTrial.gov accession: NCT01950884) is a phase IV 52 weeks double blind parallel randomized controlled trial that evaluated the effect of ezetimibe plus lifestyle and dietary intervention (eze) vs. lifestyle and dietary intervention alone (placebo) on progression and complications of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) evaluated by liver histology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty patients with NASH ascertained by histology were randomly allocated on the two study groups and subjected to a follow-up of 52 weeks, when they underwent a second liver biopsy. Main composite end point (EP) was based on the histological improvement in the severity of NASH. Thirty patients completed the study, Eze treatment was not able to improve the primary EP in comparison with placebo, with and odds ratio of 1.029 (0.18-6.38), p = 0.974. Treatment emergent adverse events registered during the study were not more prevalent in the treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: ezetimibe administered on top of lifestyle and dietary modification failed to improve the histology of NASH in comparison with lifestyle and dietary modification alone. TRIAL ACCESSION NUMBER: ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01950884.

Prevalence of hepatitis C virus estimates of undiagnosed individuals in different Italian regions: a mathematical modelling approach by route of transmission and fibrosis progression with results up to January 2021.

This study provides an update on hepatitis C virus (HCV) estimates across Italy up to January 2021. A mathematical probabilistic modelling approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was used to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. Prevalence was defined by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment, and migration rate from the Italian National database (ISTAT). Viraemic infection was estimated for the main HCV transmission routes by stages F0-F3 (patients without liver cirrhosis, i.e., potentially asymptomatic liver disease) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, i.e., potentially symptomatic liver disease). By January 2021, we estimated that there were 398,610 individuals in Italy with active HCV infection (prevalence of 0.66%; 95% CI: 0.66-0.67), of which 287,730 (0.48%; 95% CI: 0.46-0.59%) were stage F0-F3. Prevalence values for all individuals with active HCV infection were: North 0.54% (95% CI: 0.53-0.54%), Central 0.88% (95% CI: 0.87-0.89%), South 0.72% (95% CI: 0.71-0.73%), and the Isles 0.67% (95% CI: 0.66-0.68%). The population at risk for previous/current drug injection accounted for 48.6% of all individuals with active HCV infection. A modelling approach such as this to estimate and update the prevalence of active HCV infection could be a useful methodology for the evaluation of healthcare policies related to HCV elimination plans.

Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in HCV liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination programs. METHODS: Previously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or 'no delay' scenario and a '1-year delay' scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual country-level model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the 'no-delay' estimates from the '1-year delay' estimates. RESULTS: The '1-year delay' scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 43,800-49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600-79,400) excess liver-related deaths, relative to the 'no-delay' scenario globally, from 2020 to 2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, whereas most excess hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths would be among high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. To mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so. LAY SUMMARY: COVID-19 has resulted in many hepatitis elimination programs slowing or stopping altogether. A 1-year delay in hepatitis diagnosis and treatment could result in an additional 44,800 liver cancers and 72,300 deaths from HCV globally by 2030. Countries have committed to hepatitis elimination by 2030, so attention should shift back to hepatitis programming as soon as it becomes appropriate to do so.

PNPLA3 rs738409 C>G Variant Predicts Fibrosis Progression by Noninvasive Tools in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Liver fibrosis is the main predictor of events in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD),1 and its evolution is characterized by a nonlinear trend2,3 mostly affected by metabolic risk factors, severity of liver inflammation and steatosis, and weight loss.3 The rs738409 C>G common variant in PNPLA3 gene has been associated with severity of fibrosis and risk of liver-related events in NAFLD.4,5 Noninvasive tests as Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) are useful to rule-out advanced fibrosis and they could be reliable to predict fibrosis progression.2,6 We aimed to evaluate in patients with NAFLD whether PNPLA3 rs738409 C>G variant impacts on fibrosis progression, noninvasively assessed by FIB-4 and LSM.

Monitoring Occurrence of Liver-Related Events and Survival by Transient Elastography in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with advanced fibrosis related to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are at risk of developing hepatic and extrahepatic complications. We investigated whether, in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) and their changes can be used to identify patients at risk for liver-related and extrahepatic events. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with NAFLD (n = 1039) with a histologic diagnosis of F3-F4 fibrosis and/or LSMs>10 kPa, followed for at least 6 months, from medical centers in 6 countries. LSMs were made by FibroScan using the M or XL probe and recorded at baseline and within 1 year from the last follow-up examination. Differences between follow up and baseline LSMs were categorized as: improvement (reduction of more than 20%), stable (reduction of 20% to an increase of 20%), impairment (an increase of 20% or more). We recorded hepatic events (such as liver decompensation, ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, jaundice, or hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) and overall and liver-related mortality during a median follow-up time of 35 months (interquartile range, 19-63 months). RESULTS: Based on Cox regression analysis, baseline LSM was independently associated with occurrence of hepatic decompensation (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04; P < .001), HCC (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04; P = .003), and liver-related death (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.02-1.03; P = .005). In 533 patients with available LSMs during the follow-up period, change in LSM was independently associated with hepatic decompensation (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05-2.51; P = .04), HCC (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.01-3.02; P = .04), overall mortality (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.11-2.69; P = .01), and liver-related mortality (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.10-3.38; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline LSM and change in LSM are associated with risk of liver-related events and mortality.

Factors Enhancing Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus-Infected Italian People Who Use Drugs: The CLEO-GRECAS Experience.

INTRODUCTION: We assessed the performance of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected people who use drugs (PWUDs) in terms of sustained virological response (SVR) and adherence rates in comparison to a location-matched cohort of non-PWUD HCV patients. METHODS: All consecutive HCV RNA-positive PWUDs were enrolled between 2015 and 2019. All subjects underwent DAA treatment according to international guidelines and then followed, at least, up to 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). The SVR and adherence to treatment was compared with that of non-PWUD HCV patients observed at hepatological units of the CLEO platform. Intention-to-treat analysis was performed. RESULTS: A total of 1,786 PWUDs who were followed up were available for assessment. Most PWUDs (85.4%) were managed inside the specialized outpatient addiction clinics (SerDs). The overall SVR rate was 95.4%. The SerDs group achieved an SVR rate of 96.2% compared with 91.6% of the non-SerDs group (P < 0.001). Comparison with the non-SerDs group and the control HCV group showed a significant difference in the dropout rate (0.6% in the SerDs group versus 2.8% in the non-SerDs group and 1.2% in the control group; P < 0.001). At multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with SVR were use of the most recent regimens (elbasvir/grazoprevir, glecaprevir/pibrentasvir, and sofosbuvir/velpatasvir; odds ratio: 3.126; P = 0.000) and belonging to the SerDs group (odds ratio: 2.356; P = 0.002). DISCUSSION: The performance of DAAs in PWUD is excellent, if 2 conditions are met: (i) that the latest generation drugs are used and (ii) that the patients are managed within the SerDs.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with a normal or abnormal liver.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus causing coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), with an estimated 22 million people infected worldwide so far although involving primarily the respiratory tract, has a remarkable tropism for the liver and the biliary tract. Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and no antecedent liver disease may display evidence of cytolytic liver damage, proportional to the severity of COVID-19 but rarely of clinical significance. The mechanism of hepatocellular injury is unclear and possibly multifactorial. The clinical impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with underlying chronic liver disease, a cohort whose global size is difficult to estimate, has been assessed appropriately only recently and data are still evolving. Patients with cirrhosis are at higher risk of developing severe COVID-19 and worse liver-related outcomes as compared to those with non-cirrhotic liver disease. OLT patients have an intermediate risk. Specific interventions in order to reduce the risk of transmission of infection among this high-risk population have been outlined by international societies, together with recommendations for modified treatment and follow-up regimens during the COVID-19 pandemic. When a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 becomes available, patients with fibrotic liver disease and those with OLT should be considered as prime targets for prophylaxis of COVID-19, as all other highly susceptible subjects.

Liver and cardiovascular mortality after hepatitis C virus eradication by DAA: Data from RESIST-HCV cohort.

Real-world evidence on the course of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) chronic liver disease after Sustained Virologic Response (SVR) obtained with direct-acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) are still limited, and the effects on mortality remain unclear. We evaluated the post-treatment survival of 4307 patients in the RESIST-HCV cohort (mean age 66.3 ± 11.6 years, 56.9% males, 24.7% chronic hepatitis, 66.9% Child-Pugh A cirrhosis and 8.4% Child-Pugh B cirrhosis) treated with DAAs between March 2015 and December 2016 and followed for a median of 73 weeks (range 16-152). Proportional cause-specific hazard regression for competing risks was used to evaluate the survival and to assess the predictors of liver and cardiovascular death. Overall, 94.7% of patients achieved SVR while 5.3% were HCV RNA-positive at last follow-up. Sixty-three patients (1.4%) died during the observation period. SVR was associated with a decreased risk of liver mortality (hazard ratio,HR0.09, beta -2.37, p < .001). Also, platelet count (HR 0.99, beta-0.01, p = .007) and albumin value (HR 0.26, beta -1.36 p = .001) were associated with liver mortality by competing risk analysis. SVR was associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality regardless of presence of cirrhosis (HR 0.07, beta-2.67, p < .001). Presence of diabetes (HR 3.45, beta 1.24, p = .014) and chronic kidney disease class ≥3 (HR 3.60, beta 1.28, p = 0.016) were two factors independently associated with higher risk of cardiovascular mortality. Patients with SVR to a DAA therapy have a better liver and cardiovascular survival, and the effects of HCV eradication are most evident in patients with compensated liver disease.