How patients with multiple sclerosis acquire disability.

Patients with multiple sclerosis acquire disability either through relapse-associated worsening (RAW) or progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA). This study addresses the relative contribution of relapses to disability worsening over the course of the disease, how early progression begins and the extent to which multiple sclerosis therapies delay disability accumulation. Using the Novartis-Oxford multiple sclerosis (NO.MS) data pool spanning all multiple sclerosis phenotypes and paediatric multiple sclerosis, we evaluated ∼200 000 Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) transitions from >27 000 patients with ≤15 years follow-up. We analysed three datasets: (i) A full analysis dataset containing all observational and randomized controlled clinical trials in which disability and relapses were assessed (n = 27 328); (ii) all phase 3 clinical trials (n = 8346); and (iii) all placebo-controlled phase 3 clinical trials (n = 4970). We determined the relative importance of RAW and PIRA, investigated the role of relapses on all-cause disability worsening using Andersen-Gill models and observed the impact of the mechanism of worsening and disease-modifying therapies on the time to reach milestone disability levels using time continuous Markov models. PIRA started early in the disease process, occurred in all phenotypes and became the principal driver of disability accumulation in the progressive phase of the disease. Relapses significantly increased the hazard of all-cause disability worsening events; following a year in which relapses occurred (versus a year without relapses), the hazard increased by 31-48% (all P < 0.001). Pre-existing disability and older age were the principal risk factors for incomplete relapse recovery. For placebo-treated patients with minimal disability (EDSS 1), it took 8.95 years until increased limitation in walking ability (EDSS 4) and 18.48 years to require walking assistance (EDSS 6). Treating patients with disease-modifying therapies delayed these times significantly by 3.51 years (95% confidence limit: 3.19, 3.96) and 3.09 years (2.60, 3.72), respectively. In patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, those who worsened exclusively due to RAW events took a similar length of time to reach milestone EDSS values compared with those with PIRA events; the fastest transitions were observed in patients with PIRA and superimposed relapses. Our data confirm that relapses contribute to the accumulation of disability, primarily early in multiple sclerosis. PIRA begins in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and becomes the dominant driver of disability accumulation as the disease evolves. Pre-existing disability and older age are the principal risk factors for further disability accumulation. The use of disease-modifying therapies delays disability accrual by years, with the potential to gain time being highest in the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis.

Effect of siponimod on magnetic resonance imaging measures of neurodegeneration and myelination in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: Gray matter atrophy and magnetization transfer ratio analyses from the EXPAND phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurements of gray matter (GM) atrophy and magnetization transfer ratio (MTR; correlate of myelination) may provide better insights than conventional MRI regarding brain tissue integrity/myelination in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of siponimod in the EXPAND trial on whole-brain and GM atrophy, newly formed normalized magnetization transfer ratio (nMTR) lesions, and nMTR-assessed integrity of normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT), cortical GM (cGM), and normal-appearing white matter (NAWM). METHODS: Patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) received siponimod (2 mg/day; n =1037) or placebo (n = 523). Endpoints included percentage change from baseline to months 12/24 in whole-brain, cGM, and thalamic volumes; change in nMTR from baseline to months 12/24 in NABT, cGM, and NAWM; MTR recovery in newly formed lesions. RESULTS: Compared with placebo, siponimod significantly reduced progression of whole-brain and GM atrophy over 12/24 months, and was associated with improvements in brain tissue integrity/myelination within newly formed nMTR lesions and across NABT, cGM, and NAWM over 24 months. Effects were consistent across age, disease duration, inflammatory activity subgroups, and disease severity. CONCLUSION: Siponimod reduced brain tissue damage in patients with SPMS as evidenced by objective measures of brain tissue integrity/myelination. This is consistent with central nervous system (CNS) effects observed in preclinical models. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01665144.

Characterisation of MS phenotypes across the age span using a novel data set integrating 34 clinical trials (NO.MS cohort): Age is a key contributor to presentation.

BACKGROUND: The Oxford Big Data Institute, multiple sclerosis (MS) physicians and Novartis aim to address unresolved questions in MS with a novel comprehensive clinical trial data set. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to describe the Novartis-Oxford MS (NO.MS) data set and to explore the relationships between age, disease activity and disease worsening across MS phenotypes. METHODS: We report key characteristics of NO.MS. We modelled MS lesion formation, relapse frequency, brain volume change and disability worsening cross-sectionally, as a function of patients' baseline age, using phase III study data (≈8000 patients). RESULTS: NO.MS contains data of ≈35,000 patients (>200,000 brain images from ≈10,000 patients), with >10 years follow-up. (1) Focal disease activity is highest in paediatric patients and decreases with age, (2) brain volume loss is similar across age and phenotypes and (3) the youngest patients have the lowest likelihood (<25%) of disability worsening over 2 years while risk is higher (25%-75%) in older, disabled or progressive MS patients. Young patients benefit most from treatment. CONCLUSION: NO.MS will illuminate questions related to MS characterisation, progression and prognosis. Age modulates relapse frequency and, thus, the phenotypic presentation of MS. Disease worsening across all phenotypes is mediated by age and appears to some extent be independent from new focal inflammatory activity.

Siponimod: Disentangling disability and relapses in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In multiple sclerosis, impact of treatment on disability progression can be confounded if treatment also reduces relapses. OBJECTIVE: To distinguish siponimod's direct effects on disability progression from those on relapses in the EXPAND phase 3 trial. METHODS: Three estimands, one based on principal stratum and two on hypothetical scenarios (no relapses, or equal relapses in both treatment arms), were defined to determine the extent to which siponimod's effects on 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression were independent of on-study relapses. RESULTS: Principal stratum analysis estimated that siponimod reduced the risk of 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression by 14%-20% and 29%-33%, respectively, compared with placebo in non-relapsing patients. In the hypothetical scenarios, risk reductions independent of relapses were 14%-18% and 23% for 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression, respectively. CONCLUSION: By controlling the confounding impact of on-study relapses on confirmed disability progression, these statistical approaches provide a methodological framework to assess treatment effects on disability progression in relapsing and non-relapsing patients. The analyses support that siponimod may be useful for treating secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in patients with or without relapses.

Baseline characteristics and effects of fingolimod on cognitive performance in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Studies reporting the baseline determinants of cognitive performance and treatment effect on cognition in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) are limited. We investigated the baseline correlates of cognition and the long-term treatment effects of fingolimod 0.5 mg once daily on cognitive processing speed and attention in patients with relapsing-remitting MS. METHODS: This post hoc analysis pooled data from the phase 3 FREEDOMS and FREEDOMS II trials (N = 1556). We assessed the correlation between baseline patient demographic and disease characteristics and baseline 3-second Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT-3) scores (Spearman's rank test) and the changes from baseline in PASAT-3 (mixed model repeated measures model) in the fingolimod and placebo (up to 24 months) or placebo-fingolimod switched (from Month 24 up to 120 months) groups. Additionally, the predictive value of PASAT-3 score for future disease outcomes was assessed (Cox or logistic regression models). RESULTS: Among the variables assessed, lower PASAT-3 score at baseline correlated with higher disease burden (total brain volume, T2 lesion volume, and Expanded Disability Status Scale score), longer disease duration and older age (p < 0.0001 for all). Fingolimod significantly improved PASAT-3 scores from baseline versus placebo at 6 (1.3; p = 0.0007), 12 (1.1; p = 0.0044) and 24 months (1.1; p = 0.0028), with a sustained effect (overall treatment effect p = 0.0012) up to 120 months. Improvements were seen regardless of baseline cognitive status (PASAT quartile). Baseline PASAT-3 score was predictive of both clinical and magnetic resonance imaging measures of disease activity at Month 24 (p < 0.001 for all). CONCLUSION: Early fingolimod treatment may offer long-term cognitive benefit in patients with relapsing-remitting MS.

Advancing data science in drug development through an innovative computational framework for data sharing and statistical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Novartis and the University of Oxford's Big Data Institute (BDI) have established a research alliance with the aim to improve health care and drug development by making it more efficient and targeted. Using a combination of the latest statistical machine learning technology with an innovative IT platform developed to manage large volumes of anonymised data from numerous data sources and types we plan to identify novel patterns with clinical relevance which cannot be detected by humans alone to identify phenotypes and early predictors of patient disease activity and progression. METHOD: The collaboration focuses on highly complex autoimmune diseases and develops a computational framework to assemble a research-ready dataset across numerous modalities. For the Multiple Sclerosis (MS) project, the collaboration has anonymised and integrated phase II to phase IV clinical and imaging trial data from ≈35,000 patients across all clinical phenotypes and collected in more than 2200 centres worldwide. For the "IL-17" project, the collaboration has anonymised and integrated clinical and imaging data from over 30 phase II and III Cosentyx clinical trials including more than 15,000 patients, suffering from four autoimmune disorders (Psoriasis, Axial Spondyloarthritis, Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and Rheumatoid arthritis (RA)). RESULTS: A fundamental component of successful data analysis and the collaborative development of novel machine learning methods on these rich data sets has been the construction of a research informatics framework that can capture the data at regular intervals where images could be anonymised and integrated with the de-identified clinical data, quality controlled and compiled into a research-ready relational database which would then be available to multi-disciplinary analysts. The collaborative development from a group of software developers, data wranglers, statisticians, clinicians, and domain scientists across both organisations has been key. This framework is innovative, as it facilitates collaborative data management and makes a complicated clinical trial data set from a pharmaceutical company available to academic researchers who become associated with the project. CONCLUSIONS: An informatics framework has been developed to capture clinical trial data into a pipeline of anonymisation, quality control, data exploration, and subsequent integration into a database. Establishing this framework has been integral to the development of analytical tools.

Video-Based Pairwise Comparison: Enabling the Development of Automated Rating of Motor Dysfunction in Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the feasibility, reliability, granularity, and convergent validity of a video-based pairwise comparison technique that uses algorithmic support to enable automated rating of motor dysfunction in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). DESIGN: Feasibility and larger cross-sectional cohort study. SETTING: The outpatient clinic of 2 specialist university medical centers. PARTICIPANTS: Selected sample from a cohort of patients with MS participating in the Assess MS study (N=42). Videos were randomly drawn from each strata of the ataxia severity-degrees as defined in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). In Basel: 19 videos of 17 patients (mean age, 43.4±11.6y; 10 women). In Amsterdam: 50 videos of 25 patients (mean age, 50.0±10.0y; 15 women). INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: In each center, neurologists (n=13; n=10) viewed pairs of videos of patients performing standardized movements (eg, finger-to-nose test) to assess relative performance. A comparative assessment score was calculated for each video using the TrueSkill algorithm and analyzed for intrarater (test-retest; ratio of agreement) and interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] for absolute agreement) and convergent validity (Spearman ρ). Granularity was estimated from the average difference in comparative assessment scores at which 80% of neurologists considered performance to be different. RESULTS: Intrarater reliability was excellent (median ratio of agreement≥0.87). The comparative assessment scores calculated from individual neurologists demonstrated good-excellent ICCs for interrater reliability (0.89; 0.71). The comparative assessment scores correlated (very) highly with their Neurostatus-EDSS equivalent (ρ=0.78, P<.001; ρ=0.91, P<.05), suggesting a more fine-grained rating. CONCLUSIONS: Video-based pairwise comparison of motor dysfunction allows for reliable and fine-grained capturing of clinical judgment about neurologic performance, which can contribute to the development of a consistent quantified metric of motor ability in MS.

Autoencoder as a New Method for Maintaining Data Privacy While Analyzing Videos of Patients With Motor Dysfunction: Proof-of-Concept Study.

BACKGROUND: In chronic neurological diseases, especially in multiple sclerosis (MS), clinical assessment of motor dysfunction is crucial to monitor the disease in patients. Traditional scales are not sensitive enough to detect slight changes. Video recordings of patient performance are more accurate and increase the reliability of severity ratings. When these recordings are automated, quantitative disability assessments by machine learning algorithms can be created. Creation of these algorithms involves non-health care professionals, which is a challenge for maintaining data privacy. However, autoencoders can address this issue. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this proof-of-concept study was to test whether coded frame vectors of autoencoders contain relevant information for analyzing videos of the motor performance of patients with MS. METHODS: In this study, 20 pre-rated videos of patients performing the finger-to-nose test were recorded. An autoencoder created encoded frame vectors from the original videos and decoded the videos again. The original and decoded videos were shown to 10 neurologists at an academic MS center in Basel, Switzerland. The neurologists tested whether the 200 videos were human-readable after decoding and rated the severity grade of each original and decoded video according to the Neurostatus-Expanded Disability Status Scale definitions of limb ataxia. Furthermore, the neurologists tested whether ratings were equivalent between the original and decoded videos. RESULTS: In total, 172 of 200 (86.0%) videos were of sufficient quality to be ratable. The intrarater agreement between the original and decoded videos was 0.317 (Cohen weighted kappa). The average difference in the ratings between the original and decoded videos was 0.26, in which the original videos were rated as more severe. The interrater agreement between the original videos was 0.459 and that between the decoded videos was 0.302. The agreement was higher when no deficits or very severe deficits were present. CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of videos (172/200, 86.0%) decoded by the autoencoder contained clinically relevant information and had fair intrarater agreement with the original videos. Autoencoders are a potential method for enabling the use of patient videos while preserving data privacy, especially when non-health-care professionals are involved.

A Physician-Completed Digital Tool for Evaluating Disease Progression (Multiple Sclerosis Progression Discussion Tool): Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Defining the transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) can be challenging and delayed. A digital tool (MSProDiscuss) was developed to facilitate physician-patient discussion in evaluating early, subtle signs of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease progression representing this transition. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine cut-off values and corresponding sensitivity and specificity for predefined scoring algorithms, with or without including Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, to differentiate between RRMS and SPMS patients and to evaluate psychometric properties. METHODS: Experienced neurologists completed the tool for patients with confirmed RRMS or SPMS and those suspected to be transitioning to SPMS. In addition to age and EDSS score, each patient's current disease status (disease activity, symptoms, and its impacts on daily life) was collected while completing the draft tool. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves determined optimal cut-off values (sensitivity and specificity) for the classification of RRMS and SPMS. RESULTS: Twenty neurologists completed the draft tool for 198 patients. Mean scores for patients with RRMS (n=89), transitioning to SPMS (n=47), and SPMS (n=62) were 38.1 (SD 12.5), 55.2 (SD 11.1), and 69.6 (SD 12.0), respectively (P<.001, each between-groups comparison). Area under the ROC curve (AUC) including and excluding EDSS were for RRMS (including) AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.87-0.95, RRMS (excluding) AUC 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.93, SPMS (including) AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.95, and SPMS (excluding) AUC 0.86, 95% CI 0.81-0.91. In the algorithm with EDSS, the optimal cut-off values were ≤51.6 for RRMS patients (sensitivity=0.83; specificity=0.82) and ≥58.9 for SPMS patients (sensitivity=0.82; specificity=0.84). The optimal cut-offs without EDSS were ≤46.3 and ≥57.8 and resulted in similar high sensitivity and specificity (0.76-0.86). The draft tool showed excellent interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient=.95). CONCLUSIONS: The MSProDiscuss tool differentiated RRMS patients from SPMS patients with high sensitivity and specificity. In clinical practice, it may be a useful tool to evaluate early, subtle signs of MS disease progression indicating the evolution of RRMS to SPMS. MSProDiscuss will help assess the current level of progression in an individual patient and facilitate a more informed physician-patient discussion.

Siponimod versus placebo in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (EXPAND): a double-blind, randomised, phase 3 study.

BACKGROUND: No treatment has consistently shown efficacy in slowing disability progression in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). We assessed the effect of siponimod, a selective sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) receptor1,5 modulator, on disability progression in patients with SPMS. METHODS: This event-driven and exposure-driven, double-blind, phase 3 trial was done at 292 hospital clinics and specialised multiple sclerosis centres in 31 countries. Using interactive response technology to assign numbers linked to treatment arms, patients (age 18-60 years) with SPMS and an Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 3·0-6·5 were randomly assigned (2:1) to once daily oral siponimod 2 mg or placebo for up to 3 years or until the occurrence of a prespecified number of confirmed disability progression (CDP) events. The primary endpoint was time to 3-month CDP. Efficacy was assessed for the full analysis set (ie, all randomly assigned and treated patients); safety was assessed for the safety set. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01665144. FINDINGS: 1651 patients were randomly assigned between Feb 5, 2013, and June 2, 2015 (1105 to the siponimod group, and 546 to the placebo group). One patient did not sign the consent form, and five patients did not receive study drug, all of whom were in the siponimod group. 1645 patients were included in the analyses (1099 in the siponimod group and 546 in the placebo). At baseline, the mean time since first multiple sclerosis symptoms was 16·8 years (SD 8·3), and the mean time since conversion to SPMS was 3·8 years (SD 3·5); 1055 (64%) patients had not relapsed in the previous 2 years, and 918 (56%) of 1651 needed walking assistance. 903 (82%) patients receiving siponimod and 424 (78%) patients receiving placebo completed the study. 288 (26%) of 1096 patients receiving siponimod and 173 (32%) of 545 patients receiving placebo had 3-month CDP (hazard ratio 0·79, 95% CI 0·65-0·95; relative risk reduction 21%; p=0·013). Adverse events occurred in 975 (89%) of 1099 patients receiving siponimod versus 445 (82%) of 546 patients receiving placebo; serious adverse events were reported for 197 (18%) patients in the siponimod group versus 83 (15%) patients in the placebo group. Lymphopenia, increased liver transaminase concentration, bradycardia and bradyarrhythmia at treatment initiation, macular oedema, hypertension, varicella zoster reactivation, and convulsions occurred more frequently with siponimod than with placebo. Initial dose titration mitigated cardiac first-dose effects. Frequencies of infections, malignancies, and fatalities did not differ between groups. INTERPRETATION: Siponimod reduced the risk of disability progression with a safety profile similar to that of other S1P modulators and is likely to be a useful treatment for SPMS. FUNDING: Novartis Pharma AG.

Tasks of activities of daily living (ADL) are more valuable than the classical neurological examination to assess upper extremity function and mobility in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Accurate clinical assessment in multiple sclerosis (MS) is challenging. The Assess MS system is being developed to automatically quantify motor dysfunction in MS, including upper extremity function (UEF) and mobility. OBJECTIVE: To determine to what extent combinations of standardized movements included in the Assess MS system explain accepted measures of UEF and mobility. METHODS: MS patients were recruited at four European MS centres. Eight movements were selected, including tasks of activities of daily living (ADL) and classical neurological tests. Movements were recorded on video and rated by experienced neurologists (n = 5). Subsequently, multivariate linear regression models were performed to explain the variance of the Nine-Hole Peg Test (9HPT), Arm Function in Multiple Sclerosis Questionnaire (AMSQ) and Timed-25 Foot Walk test (T25WT). RESULTS: In total, 257 patients were included. The movements explained 62.9% to 80.1% of the variance of the 9HPT models, 43.3% and 44.3% of the AMSQ models and 70.8% of the T25WT. In all models, tasks of ADL contributed most to the variance. CONCLUSION: Combinations of movements are valuable to assess UEF and mobility. Incorporating ADL tasks into daily clinical practice and clinical trials may be more valuable than the classical neurological examination of UEF and mobility.

Neurostatus e-Scoring improves consistency of Expanded Disability Status Scale assessments: A proof of concept study.

BACKGROUND: To improve the consistency of standardized Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) assessments, an electronic data capture tool and analysis tool was developed, Neurostatus e-Scoring (NESC). This tool allows real-time feedback by comparing entries with established scoring rules. OBJECTIVE: To test whether using NESC reduces inconsistencies as compared to the paper-and-pencil version of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (pEDSS). METHODS: In all, 100 multiple sclerosis (MS) patients were assessed in random order on the same day by pairs of neurologists, one using pEDSS and one NESC. We compared inter-rater reliability and frequency of inconsistencies in Neurostatus subscores, functional system (FS) scores, ambulation and EDSS steps. RESULTS: Inconsistencies of any type were more likely to occur when using pEDSS (mean odds ratio (95% confidence interval (CI)) = 2.93 (1.62; 5.29)). This was also the case for FS score inconsistencies (2.54 (1.40; 4.61)) and more likely for patients in the lower EDSS range (⩽3.5 vs >3.5) (5.32 (1.19; 23.77)). Overall, inter-rater agreement for the assessed Neurostatus subscores was high (median and inter-quartile range = 0.84 (0.73, 0.81)). CONCLUSION: Our data provide class II evidence that the use of NESC increases consistency of standardized EDSS assessments, and may thus have the potential to decrease noise and increase power of MS clinical trials.

Rationale for Use of Sphingosine-1-Phosphate Receptor Modulators in COVID-19 Patients: Overview of Scientific Evidence.

Maladjusted immune responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), for example, cytokine release syndrome, may result in immunopathology and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P), a bioactive lipid mediator, and its S1P receptor (S1PR) are crucial in maintaining endothelial cell chemotaxis and barrier integrity. Apart from the S1P1 receptor-mediated mechanisms of sequestration of cytotoxic lymphocytes, including Th-17 and S1P1/2/3-mediated endothelial barrier functions, S1PR modulators may also attenuate cytokine release via activation of serine/threonine protein phosphatase 2A and enhance the pulmonary endothelial barrier via the c-Abl tyrosine kinase pathway. Chronic treatment with fingolimod (S1PR1,3,4,5 modulator) and siponimod (S1PR1,5 modulator) has demonstrated efficacy in reducing inflammatory disease activity and slowing down disease progression in multiple sclerosis. The decision to selectively suppress the immunity of a critically ill patient with COVID-19 remains a difficult choice. It has been suggested that treatment with fingolimod or siponimod may be appropriate to attenuate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)-induced hyperinflammation in patients with COVID-19 since these patients are already monitored in an intensive care setting. Here, we review the use of S1PR modulators, fingolimod and siponimod, in regulating the inflammatory response to SARS-CoV-2 with the aim of understanding their potential rationale use in patients with COVID-19.

Assessment of Multiple Aspects of Upper Extremity Function Independent From Ambulation in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Upper extremity function (UEF) is often compromised in multiple sclerosis (MS), although its importance is regularly underrecognized relative to ambulation. We explored the concurrent presence of impairment in UEF and ambulation by examining various aspects of UEF across different levels of ambulation. METHODS: The cohort consisted of 247 patients with clinically definite MS or clinically isolated syndrome according to the revised 2010 McDonald criteria. The Nine-Hole Peg Test and the Expanded Disability Status Scale were used to stratify patients into clinically different subgroups. For UEF, cerebellar function (finger-to-nose test), pyramidal function (pronator drift test), and the ability to perform a task of activities of daily living (drinking-from-cup test) were examined. Patient-reported limitations of UEF in daily life were assessed using the Arm Function in Multiple Sclerosis Questionnaire. RESULTS: Patients in more severely impaired ambulation groups displayed poorer performance on all UEF measures. Although most patients had normal to mild (n = 147) or moderate (n = 46) ambulatory impairment, 87.7% exhibited some level of UEF impairment as defined using the Nine-Hole Peg Test. Most patients had mild UEF impairment (n = 174), accounting for the largest proportion in all ambulation groups (51.9%-77.8%). CONCLUSIONS: A distinct pattern of impairment was found for ambulation and multiple aspects of UEF. Independent assessment of multiple aspects of disability may be helpful in treatment decision-making and could support the development of rehabilitation strategies that specifically target UEF impairment.

Blood Neurofilament Light in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: Post Hoc Analysis of 2 Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To investigate the potential of plasma neurofilament light (pNfL) as a biomarker of disease progression and treatment response in progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS) with and without acute disease activity. METHODS: A post hoc blinded analysis of pNfL levels in 2 placebo-controlled, phase 3 studies in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS; EXPAND) and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS; INFORMS) using siponimod and fingolimod, respectively, as active compounds was performed. pNfL levels were quantified using a single molecule array (Homebrew Simoa) immunoassay from stored ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) plasma samples of all patients who consented for exploratory biomarker analysis in either study; pNfL levels were divided into high (≥30 pg/mL) and low (<30 pg/mL) at baseline. We investigated the association of pNfL levels with disability progression, cognitive decline, and brain atrophy and their sensitivity to indicate treatment response through clinical measures. RESULTS: We analyzed pNfL in 4,185 samples from 1,452 patients with SPMS and 1,172 samples from 378 patients with PPMS. Baseline pNfL levels were higher in SPMS (geomean 32.1 pg/mL) than in PPMS (22.0 pg/mL; p < 0.0001). In both studies, higher baseline pNfL levels were associated with older age, higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score, more Gd+ lesions, and higher T2 lesion load (all p < 0.05). Independent of treatment, high vs low baseline pNfL levels were associated with significantly higher risks of confirmed 3-month (SPMS [32%], hazard ratio [95% CI] 1.32 [1.09-1.61]; PPMS [49%], 1.49 [1.05-2.12]) and 6-month disability progression (SPMS [26%], 1.26 [1.01-1.57]; PPMS [48%], 1.48 [1.01-2.17]), earlier wheelchair dependence (SPMS [50%], 1.50 [0.96-2.34]; PPMS [197%], 2.97 [1.44-6.10]), cognitive decline (SPMS [41%], 1.41 [1.09-1.84]), and higher rates of brain atrophy (mean change at month 24: SPMS, -0.92; PPMS, -1.39). Baseline pNfL levels were associated with future disability progression and the degree of brain atrophy regardless of presence or absence of acute disease activity (gadolinium-enhancing lesions or recent occurrence of relapses before baseline). pNfL levels were lower in patients treated with siponimod or fingolimod vs placebo-treated patients and higher in those having experienced disability progression. DISCUSSION: pNfL was associated with future clinical and radiologic disability progression features at the group level. pNfL was reduced by treatment and may be a meaningful outcome measure in PMS studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: EXPAND (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01665144) and INFORMS (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00731692).

Improving Detection of Change in Motor Functioning in Multiple Sclerosis Using Video-Assisted Composite Measures.

BACKGROUND: Assessing motor functioning is important to monitor the disease course of multiple sclerosis (MS). Video-assisted rating of classic neurologic tests and activities of daily living may improve the detection of changes in motor functioning. We investigated the value of using video-assisted composite measures for the detection of changes in mobility and upper extremity function (UEF). METHODS: Forty-three patients with MS were recorded performing motor function tests before and during treatment with fampridine. Patients were classified as improved or not improved on mobility composite (MOB-COM) and UEF composite (UEF-COM) measures based on neurologists' ratings of the tests. The proportional agreements between the composite measures and the conventional measures-the Timed 25-Foot Walk test (T25FW) and the Nine-Hole Peg Test (NHPT)-were determined and compared with patient-perceived improvement, which was determined using patient-reported ratings of changes in mobility and UEF. RESULTS: Agreement between MOB-COM and T25FW was 79.5%, and agreement between UEF-COM and NHPT was 82.1%. Twenty-six of 39 patients (66.7%) reported mobility improvement; 6 of these reports were confirmed by both T25FW and MOB-COM, 4 were confirmed by T25FW only, and 2 were confirmed by MOB-COM only. For UEF, 13 of 39 patients (33.3%) reported improvement; 3 of these were confirmed by the NHPT and 3 were confirmed by the UEF-COM. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the conventional NHPT measure, the video-assisted composite measure of UEF detected additional patient-perceived improvement. This was less evident for mobility measures. Video-assisted composite measures may enhance the detection of treatment effects in MS clinical practice and trials.

Siponimod vs placebo in active secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: a post hoc analysis from the phase 3 EXPAND study.

BACKGROUND: Siponimod is a sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor modulator approved for active secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (aSPMS) in most countries; however, phase 3 EXPAND study data are from an SPMS population with/without disease activity. A need exists to characterize efficacy/safety of siponimod in aSPMS. METHODS: Post hoc analysis of participants with aSPMS (≥ 1 relapse in 2 years before study and/or ≥ 1 T1 gadolinium-enhancing [Gd +] magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] lesions at baseline) receiving oral siponimod (2 mg/day) or placebo for up to 3 years in EXPAND. ENDPOINTS: 3-month/6-month confirmed disability progression (3mCDP/6mCDP); 3-month confirmed ≥ 20% worsening in Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW); 6-month confirmed improvement/worsening in Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) scores (≥ 4-point change); T2 lesion volume (T2LV) change from baseline; number of T1 Gd + lesions baseline-month 24; number of new/enlarging (N/E) T2 lesions over all visits. RESULTS: Data from 779 participants with aSPMS were analysed. Siponimod reduced risk of 3mCDP/6mCDP vs placebo (by 31%/37%, respectively; p < 0.01); there was no significant effect on T25FW. Siponimod increased likelihood of 6-month confirmed SDMT improvement vs placebo (by 62%; p = 0.007) and reduced risk of 6-month confirmed SDMT worsening (by 27%; p = 0.060). Siponimod was associated with less increase in T2LV (1316.3 vs 13.3 mm3; p < 0.0001), and fewer T1 Gd + and N/E T2 lesions than placebo (85% and 80% reductions, respectively; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In aSPMS, siponimod reduced risk of disability progression and was associated with benefits on cognition and MRI outcomes vs placebo. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01665144.

Indirect comparisons of siponimod with fingolimod and ofatumumab in multiple sclerosis: assessing the feasibility of propensity score matching analyses.

OBJECTIVE: Head-to-head trials comparing siponimod with fingolimod or ofatumumab in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) are lacking. Instead, the comparative efficacy of siponimod can be derived from indirect treatment comparisons (ITCs). We assessed the suitability of ITCs leveraging individual patient data from relevant phase III trials across different MS phenotypes. METHODS: One siponimod trial in patients with secondary progressive MS (SPMS), four fingolimod trials (three in relapsing-remitting MS [RRMS], and one in primary progressive MS [PPMS]), and two ofatumumab trials in relapsing MS (RMS) were considered. The suitability of ITCs was evaluated based on trial design, patient eligibility criteria, baseline patient characteristics, placebo response, and outcome definitions for each trial. Analyses deemed feasible were conducted using one-to-one propensity score matching (PSM). RESULTS: An ITC between siponimod in SPMS and either fingolimod in RRMS or ofatumumab in RMS was not feasible because of insufficient overlap in key patient characteristics (e.g. disability level and relapse history) and differences in placebo response. However, a comparison between siponimod in SPMS and fingolimod in PPMS was feasible because of sufficient overlap in eligibility criteria and baseline characteristics. One-to-one PSM demonstrated siponimod was favored relative to fingolimod for time to 6- and 3-month confirmed disability progression though not significantly different (hazard ratio 0.76 [95% confidence interval 0.48-1.20; p-value = .240] and hazard ratio 0.80 [95% confidence interval 0.52-1.22; p-value = .300], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: For trials in MS, clinical phenotype is an important determinant of ITC feasibility. An ITC between siponimod in SPMS and either fingolimod in RRMS or ofatumumab in RMS was not feasible. The only feasible comparison was between siponimod in SPMS and fingolimod in PPMS.

Siponimod and Cognition in Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: EXPAND Secondary Analyses.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of siponimod on cognitive processing speed in patients with secondary progressive (SP) multiple sclerosis (MS), by means of a predefined exploratory and post hoc analysis of the Exploring the Efficacy and Safety of Siponimod in Patients With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (EXPAND) study, a randomized controlled trial comparing siponimod and placebo. METHODS: EXPAND was a double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial involving 1,651 patients with SPMS randomized (2:1) to either siponimod 2 mg/d or placebo. Cognitive function was assessed with the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT), and Brief Visuospatial Memory Test-Revised (BVMT-R) administered at baseline, 6-month intervals, and end of treatment. RESULTS: Between-group differences in mean change from baseline in SDMT scores were significantly better in siponimod- vs placebo-treated patients at month 12 (difference 1.08 [95% confidence interval 0.23-1.94]; p = 0.0132), month 18 (1.23 [0.25-2.21); p = 0.0135), and month 24 (2.30 [1.11-3.50]; p = 0.0002). Siponimod-treated patients were at significantly lower risk for having a 4-point sustained decrease in SDMT score (hazard ratio [HR] 0.79 [0.65-0.96]; p = 0.0157), while their chance for having a 4-point sustained increase in SDMT score was higher (HR 1.28 [1.05-1.55]; p = 0.0131). PASAT and BVMT-R scores did not differ significantly between the 2 treatment groups (all p > 0.28). CONCLUSION: Siponimod had a significant benefit on SDMT in patients with SPMS. Siponimod-treated patients were at significantly lower risk for having a ≥4-point decrease in SDMT score and had a significantly higher chance for having a ≥4-point increase in SDMT score, a magnitude of change accepted as clinically meaningful. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01665144. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that, for patients with SPMS, siponimod had a significant benefit on cognitive processing speed.

The importance of considering differences in study and patient characteristics before undertaking indirect treatment comparisons: a case study of siponimod for secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

Background: Indirect treatment comparisons (ITCs) provide valuable evidence on comparative efficacy where head-to-head clinical trials do not exist; however, differences in patient populations may introduce bias. Therefore, it is essential to assess between-trial heterogeneity to determine the suitability of synthesizing ITC results. We provide an illustrative case study in multiple sclerosis (MS) where we assess the feasibility of conducting ITCs between siponimod and interferon beta-1b (IFN ß-1b) and between siponimod and ocrelizumab.Methods: We assessed the feasibility of conducting ITCs using standard unadjusted methods (e.g. Bucher or network meta-analysis [NMA]) as well as matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAICs) using individual patient data (IPD) from the siponimod (EXPAND) trial, based on guidance from NICE. Time to confirmed disability progression (CDP) at 3 or 6 months was assessed.Results: Bucher ITCs and NMAs, which rely on summary-level data, were not able to account for important cross-trial differences. Comparisons between siponimod and IFN ß-1b were feasible using MAIC; the HRs (95% CI) for CDP-6 and CDP-3 were 0.55 (0.33-0.91) and 0.82 (0.42-1.63), respectively. ITCs were not feasible between siponimod and ocrelizumab because study designs and patient populations were too dissimilar to conduct a reliable ITC.Conclusions: This study highlights the importance of conducting a detailed feasibility assessment before undertaking ITCs to illuminate when excessive between-trial heterogeneity would cause biased results. MAIC was performed for siponimod and IFN ß-1b in the absence of a head-to-head trial and was considered a more valid approach than a traditional ITC to examine comparative effectiveness.