Performance of the model for end-stage liver disease score for mortality prediction and the potential role of etiology.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although the discriminative ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is generally considered acceptable, its calibration is still unclear. In a validation study, we assessed the discriminative performance and calibration of 3 versions of the model: original MELD-TIPS, used to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS); classic MELD-Mayo; and MELD-UNOS, used by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). We also explored recalibrating and updating the model. METHODS: In total, 776 patients who underwent elective TIPS (TIPS cohort) and 445 unselected patients (non-TIPS cohort) were included. Three, 6 and 12-month mortality predictions were calculated by the 3 MELD versions: discrimination was assessed by c-statistics and calibration by comparing deciles of predicted and observed risks. Cox and Fine and Grey models were used for recalibration and prognostic analyses. RESULTS: In the TIPS/non-TIPS cohorts, the etiology of liver disease was viral in 402/188, alcoholic in 185/130, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in 65/33; mean follow-up±SD was 25±9/19±21 months; and the number of deaths at 3-6-12 months was 57-102-142/31-47-99, respectively. C-statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.72 in TIPS and 0.66 to 0.76 in non-TIPS cohorts across prediction times and scores. A post hoc analysis revealed worse c-statistics in non-viral cirrhosis with more pronounced and significant worsening in the non-TIPS cohort. Calibration was acceptable with MELD-TIPS but largely unsatisfactory with MELD-Mayo and -UNOS whose performance improved much after recalibration. A prognostic analysis showed that age, albumin, and TIPS indication might be used to update the MELD. CONCLUSIONS: In this validation study, the performance of the MELD score was largely unsatisfactory, particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. MELD recalibration and candidate variables for an update to the MELD score are proposed. LAY SUMMARY: While the discriminative performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is credited to be fair to good, its calibration, the correspondence of observed to predicted mortality, is still unsettled. We found that application of 3 different versions of the MELD in 2 independent cirrhosis cohorts yielded largely imprecise mortality predictions particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. Thus, we propose a recalibration and suggest candidate variables for an update to the model.

Quantification of Core Antigen Monitors Efficacy of Direct-acting Antiviral Agents in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Widespread use of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents to treat patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has reduced the need for monitoring of HCV RNA levels, because viral kinetics do not predict sustained virologic response (SVR) to these drugs. However, the performance of cheaper tests such as the assay to quantify HCV core antigen (HCV Ag) has not been determined. We investigated the accuracy of the HCV Ag test in predicting which patients receiving DAAs will achieve SVRs at week 12 (SVR12). METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 58 patients infected with HCV genotypes 1-5 (45% with HCV genotype 1, 72% with cirrhosis) receiving DAA therapy from the Liver Center at the Università degli Studi of Milan in Italy from January to March 2015. We collected blood samples and measured levels of HCV Ag and HCV RNA at baseline, after 2 and 4 weeks of treatment, the end of treatment, and 12 weeks after treatment ended. We compared the ability of these assays to predict which patients would have SVR12. RESULTS: The median baseline level of HCV RNA was 5.79 log10 IU/mL (range, 3.51-7.31 log10 IU/mL) and of HCV Ag was 3226.87 fmol/L (range, 17.30-54,927.00 fmol/L). HCV Ag became undetectable in 71% of patients at week 2, 84% at week 4, and 93% at the end of treatment. HCV RNA became undetectable in 10% of patients at week 2, 43% at week 4, and 100% at the end of treatment (P < .0001). Concordance between the tests in identifying patients who would achieve SVR12 was 40% at week 2, 55% at week 4, and 95% at the end of treatment. Fifty-three of 58 patients (91%) achieved an SVR12; the test for HCV Ag identified 97% of these patients. The tests for HCV Ag and HCV RNA predicted which patients would have SVR12 with positive predictive values of 90% vs 83%, respectively, at week 2 and 89% vs 92%, respectively, at week 4. CONCLUSIONS: Tests that measure HCV Ag monitor efficacy of DAA therapy for HCV infection as well as assays that measure HCV RNA and can be recommended for clinical practice. However, measurement of HCV RNA after treatment can rule out relapse in HCV Ag-positive patients.

Transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 gene E167K variant impacts on steatosis and liver damage in chronic hepatitis C patients.

UNLABELLED: Steatosis and inherited host factors influence liver damage progression in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 (TM6SF2) gene E167K variant increases liver fat and risk of progressive steatohepatitis by interfering with lipoprotein secretion. Our aim was to determine whether the E167K variant affects histological severity of steatosis, necroinflammation, and fibrosis in a cross-sectional cohort of 815 Italian therapy-naïve CHC patients. The association with clinically significant fibrosis was replicated in 645 Swiss/German patients. The TM6SF2 E167K variant was genotyped by TaqMan assays, steatosis graded according to the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score, and necroinflammation and fibrosis graded and staged according to Ishak in Italian, and to Metavir in Swiss/German patients. The E167K variant was detected in 69 (9%) Italian patients and was associated with more severe steatosis, independently of confounders (P = 0.038). The association between E167K and steatosis severity was present in patients not infected by genotype 3 (G3) HCV (P = 0.031), but not in those infected by G3 HCV (P = 0.58). Furthermore, the E167K variant was associated with more severe necroinflammation (Ishak grade; adjusted P = 0.037) and nearly associated with more severe fibrosis (Ishak stage; adjusted P = 0.058). At multivariate logistic regression analysis, the E167K variant was independently associated with histologically probable or definite cirrhosis (Ishak stage S6; odds ratio [OR]: 2.19; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-3.93; P = 0.010). After further conditioning for steatosis and necroinflammation, the E167K variant remained associated with cirrhosis (OR, 3.15; 95% CI: 1.60-5.99; P < 0.001). In Swiss/German patients, the E167K variant was independently associated with clinically significant fibrosis Metavir stage F2-F4 (OR, 1.81; 95% CI: 1.12-3.02; P = 0.016). CONCLUSION: TM6SF2 E167K variant impacts on steatosis severity and is associated with liver damage and fibrosis in patients with CHC.

The association of IL28B genotype with the histological features of chronic hepatitis C is HCV genotype dependent.

The interleukin 28B (IL28B) rs12979860 polymorphism is associated with treatment outcome in hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 and 4 patients. Its association with the histological features of chronic hepatitis C and disease severity needs further clarifications. To assess the correlation between IL28B genotype, HCV genotype and liver biopsy findings in untreated patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Pre-treatment liver biopsies from 335 HCV Caucasian patients (59% males, age 50 years) enrolled in the MIST study were staged for fibrosis and inflammation according to the METAVIR and the Ishak scoring systems; steatosis was dichotomized as <5% or ≥5%. IL28B was typed by Taqman Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) genotyping assay. HCV genotype was 1 in 151 (45%), 2 in 99 (30%), 3 in 50 (15%) and 4 in 35 (10%) patients. IL28B genotype was CC in 117 (34%), CT in 166 (49%) and TT in 52 (15%). At univariate analysis, the IL28B CC genotype was associated with severe portal inflammation in HCV-1 patients (CC vs. CT/TT: 86% vs. 63%, p = 0.005), severe lobular inflammation in HCV-2 patients (CC vs. CT/TT: 44% vs. 23%, p = 0.03), and less fatty infiltration in HCV-1 patients (CC vs. CT/TT: 72% vs. 51%, p = 0.02). Despite the lack of any association between IL28B and fibrosis stage, in HCV-3 patients IL28B CC correlated with METAVIR F3-F4 (CC vs. CT/TT: 74% vs. 26%, p = 0.05). At multivariate analysis, the genotype CC remained associated with severe portal inflammation in HCV-1, only (Odds Ratio (OR): 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.24 (1.23-8.51)). IL28B genotype is associated with the histological features of chronic hepatitis C in a HCV genotype dependent manner, with CC genotype being independently associated with severe portal inflammation.

Risk of hepatitis B virus reactivation in oncological patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors: A case report and literature analysis.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation (HBVr) represents a severe and potentially life-threatening condition, and preventive measures are available through blood test screening or prophylactic therapy administration. The assessment of HBVr traditionally considers factors such as HBV profile, including hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and antibody to hepatitis B core antigen, along with type of medication (chemotherapy; immunomodulants). Nevertheless, consideration of possible patient's underlying tumor and the specific malignancy type (solid or hematologic) plays a crucial role and needs to be assessed for decision-making process.

The autoimmune landscape of Porto-sinusoidal vascular disorder: What the rheumatologist needs to know.

Porto-sinusoidal vascular disorder (PSVD) encompasses a group of vascular disorders characterized by lesions of the portal venules and sinusoids with clinical manifestations ranging from non-specific abnormalities in serum liver enzymes to clinically overt portal hypertension and related complications. Several reports have documented cases of PSVD in patients with systemic autoimmune conditions, such as systemic lupus erythematosus, systemic sclerosis, and rheumatoid arthritis. It is of note that these diseases share specific pathophysiological features with PSVD, including endothelial dysfunction, vascular inflammation, and molecular signatures. This narrative review aims to summarize the current knowledge on the association between PSVD and systemic autoimmune diseases, emphasizing the importance of promptly recognizing this condition in the rheumatological practice, and highlighting the key aspects where further research is necessary from both pathogenic and clinical perspectives.

Sustained virological response prevents the development of insulin resistance in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

UNLABELLED: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with insulin resistance (IR), which is a condition known to influence the progression of liver fibrosis and the response to pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN)/ribavirin (RBV) therapy. We aimed to assess whether a sustained virological response (SVR) after antiviral therapy prevents the development of IR in the long term. Members of the Milan Safety Tolerability study cohort, who received PEG-IFNα2a/RBV or PEG-IFNα2b/RBV, underwent a homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) at the baseline and 24 months after treatment completion. For all patients (n = 431), a liver biopsy sample was scored for grading, staging (Ishak), and steatosis. At the baseline, IR (HOMA value > 2) was detected in 48 patients (12%), and it was associated with body weight (P = 0.03), an HCV load < 0.6 × 10(6) IU/L (P = 0.006), fibrosis staging ≥ 4 (P = 0.01), and moderate to severe steatosis (P = 0.03). IR did not influence the rates of end-of-treatment response (75% versus 69%, P = 0.4), SVR (63% versus 60%, P = 0.8), or relapse (19% versus 24%, P = 0.5). After treatment, IR developed in 49 of the 384 nondiabetic patients (14%). Although the mean baseline and posttreatment HOMA values were similar in SVR patients (1.11 ± 0.8 versus 1.18 ± 1.1, P = 0.25), patients experiencing treatment failure showed a significant increase in the mean HOMA value at the follow-up visit (1.20 ± 0.85 versus 1.49 ± 1.3, P = 0.007), and there was an increased rate of de novo IR in non-SVR patients versus SVR patients (17% versus 7%, P = 0.007). According to a logistic regression analysis, treatment failure (odds ratio = 2.81, 95% confidence interval = 1.39-5.67, P = 0.004) and a 10% body mass index increase (odds ratio = 6.42, 95% confidence interval = 1.69-24.3, P = 0.006) were significantly associated with the development of de novo IR. CONCLUSION: In nondiabetic patients with chronic HCV, the achievement of SVR with PEG-IFN and RBV prevents the development of de novo IR.

Interleukin 28B polymorphism predicts pegylated interferon plus ribavirin treatment outcome in chronic hepatitis C genotype 4.

UNLABELLED: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) near the interleukin 28B (IL28B) region are the strongest baseline predictors of a sustained virologic response (SVR) to peg-interferon (PegIFN) and ribavirin (Rbv) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 infection. Whether this holds true for HCV-4 patients too is unknown. The aim was to investigate the predictive power of the rs12979860 IL28B SNP for a response to Peg-IFN and Rbv in HCV-4 patients. All HCV-4 patients consecutively treated between September 2004 and June 2010 with PegIFN and Rbv at two liver centers at the Maggiore Hospital Milan (Italy) underwent TaqMan SNP Genotyping assays for testing rs12979860 genotype. Of 112 treated patients (98 males, 75 of Egyptian descent, 26 with cirrhosis) 103 were included in the final analysis; five discontinued treatment for nonvirologic reasons and four did not consent to genetic testing. Twenty-four (23%) were genotype CC, 65 (63%) CT, and 14 (14%) TT. Overall, 50 (49%) achieved an SVR: 21 (88%) CC patients versus 29 (37%) CT/TT (P < 0.0001). CC patients more often had a rapid virologic response (RVR) than CT/TT patients (12, 50% versus 23, 29%; P = 0.08), while also showing lower relapse rates (0% [0/21] versus 36% [16/45] P = 0.0013). In non-RVR patients, SVR rates were higher in CC than CT/TT patients (9 [75%] versus 13 [23%] P = 0.001). By logistic regression, the IL28B rs12979860 CC genotype was an independent predictor of SVR with an odds ratio of 8.0 (95% confidence interval 2.00-32.01; P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: The IL28B rs12979860 SNP may have an added value in the treatment algorithm of HCV-4 patients because it is the strongest predictor of an SVR to PegIFN/Rbv therapy.

Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the Elderly in the Era of Direct-Acting Antivirals: Evidence from Clinical Trials and Real Life.

The introduction of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) into clinical practice has revolutionized the therapeutic approach to patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. According to the most recent guidelines, the first line of treatment for HCV infection involves the use of one of three pan-genotypic DAA combinations, sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL), glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (GLE/PIB), and sofosbuvir/velpatasvir/voxilaprevir (SOF/VEL/VOX). These drugs have been shown to be effective and safe in numerous clinical trials and real-world studies, but special populations have been neglected. Among the special populations to be treated are elderly patients, whose numbers are increasing in clinical practice. The management of these patients can be challenging, in particular due to multiple comorbidities, polypharmacotherapy, and potential drug-drug interactions. This narrative review aims to summarize the current scientific evidence on the efficacy and safety of DAAs in the elderly population, both in clinical trials and in real-life settings. Although there is still a paucity of real-world data and no clinical trials have yet been conducted in the population aged ≥ 75 years old, some considerations about the efficacy and safety of DAAs in the elderly can be made based on the results of these studies. The pan-genotypic associations of DAAs appear to be as efficacious and safe in the elderly population as in the general population; this is both in terms of similar sustained virologic response (SVR) rates and similar frequencies of adverse events (AEs). However, further studies specifically involving this patient population would be necessary to confirm this evidence.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Does Not Improve COVID-19 Outcome in Hospitalized Patients.

Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) was demonstrated to reduce susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro and improve infection course in chronic liver diseases. However, real-life evidence is lacking. We analyzed the impact of UDCA on COVID-19 outcomes in patients hospitalized in a tertiary center. Between January 2020 and January 2023, among 3847 patients consecutively hospitalized for COVID19, 57 (=UDCA group) were taking UDCA. The UDCA and the control groups (n = 3790) did not differ concerning comorbidities including diabetes mellitus type 2 (15.8% vs. 12.8%) and neoplasia (12.3% vs. 9.4%). Liver diseases and vaccination rate were more common in the UDCA group (14.0% vs. 2.5% and 54.4% vs. 30.2%, respectively). Overall mortality and CPAP treatment were 22.8 % and 15.7% in the UDCA, and 21.3% and 25.9% in the control group. Mortality was similar (p = 0.243), whereas UDCA was associated with a lower rate of CPAP treatment (OR = 0.76, p < 0.05). Treatment with UDCA was not an independent predictor of survival in patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

Hyporesponsiveness to PegIFNα2B plus ribavirin in patients with hepatitis C-related advanced fibrosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The success of pegylated-interferon (PegIFN)/ribavirin (Rbv) therapy of chronic hepatitis C is compromised by liver fibrosis. Whether fibrosis equally affects the two PegIFNα-based therapies is unknown. To assess the response to the two PegIFN regimens in patients with different degree of liver fibrosis. METHODS: A sub-analysis of the MIST study: 431 consecutive naïve patients randomly assigned, based on HCV genotype, to receive either (A) PegIFNα2a 180 µg/wk plus daily Rbv 800-1200 mg or (B) PegIFNα2b 1.5 µg/kg/week plus daily Rbv 800-1200 mg, were stratified according to Ishak staging (S) into mild (S0-S2) or moderate (S3, S4) fibrosis and cirrhosis (S5, S6). RESULTS: In A the sustained virological response (SVR) rates were not significantly influenced by fibrosis stage (71% in S0-S2, 66% in S3, S4, 53% in S5, S6, p=0.12), compared to B where the SVR rates differed according to fibrosis stage (65%, 46%, and 38%, p=0.004, respectively). This was even more so in HCV-1/4 patients treated with PegIFNα2b where the SVR rates were twice as many in S0-S2 vs. S≥3 (44% vs. 22%, p=0.02), while in A the SVR rates were similar between the two fibrosis subgroups (S0-S2: 47% vs. S≥3: 48%, p=0.8). By logistic regression analysis genotype 1/4 and lack of rapid virological response were independent predictors of treatment failure in both treatment groups, while S≥3 fibrosis was associated to PegIFNα2b treatment failure, only (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.4-5.68, p=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Liver fibrosis was an independent moderator of treatment outcome in patients receiving PegIFNα2b, not in those receiving PegIFNα2a.

Patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing 3 I148M polymorphism, steatosis, and liver damage in chronic hepatitis C.

UNLABELLED: Steatosis has been reported to negatively influence the natural history of chronic hepatitis C (CHC), but controversy remains over its causal role due to the confounding effect of adiposity, insulin resistance, and diabetes. The rs738409 C>G patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing 3 (PNPLA3) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), encoding for the I148M protein variant, influences liver fat without affecting insulin resistance and body composition. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the rs738409 CG genotype on liver fat and fibrosis in CHC patients. We also explored the possible effect of PNPLA3 genotype on other steatosis-related complications, namely, treatment failure and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. To this end we considered two independent series of 325 and 494 CHC patients with available DNA and liver biopsy followed at tertiary referral centers in northern Italy. The rs738409 genotype was determined by a Taqman assay. The rs738409 GG genotype, observed in 10% of patients, was associated with steatosis independently of age, sex, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, alcohol intake, and viral genotype (odds ratio [OR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-2.7; P < 0.001). The association with rs738409 genotype was confirmed for severe steatosis, was independent of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) values, and was observed in all viral genotypes but the 3. The rs738409 GG genotype was associated with fibrosis stage and cirrhosis (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.2-1.9; P = 0.002), treatment response (n = 470; OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.4-0.8; P = 0.006), and HCC occurrence (n = 325; OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.3-3.6; P = 0.002), independently of confounders. CONCLUSION: The rs738409 PNPLA3 genotype influences steatosis development in CHC and is independently associated with cirrhosis and other steatosis-related clinical outcomes, such as lack of response to antiviral treatment and possibly HCC.

Genetic variation in the interleukin-28B gene is not associated with fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C and known date of infection.

UNLABELLED: Polymorphisms in the interleukin-28B (IL28B) region are associated with spontaneous and treatment-induced viral clearance in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Nevertheless, it is unknown whether genetic variation at the IL28B locus influences the natural history of chronic HCV infection. Thus, we asked whether an association between IL28B polymorphisms and liver fibrosis progression existed. We studied 247 consecutive patients with chronic HCV, an accurate estimate of the date of infection, and a liver biopsy performed before any treatment. No patient had a history of alcohol abuse or coinfection with other viruses. We assessed the role of rs8099917 and rs12979860 polymorphisms and the effect of host and environmental factors on fibrosis progression. Blood transfusion (75%) was the main modality of infection. Median age at infection was 21 years, and median interval between infection and liver biopsy was 25 years. One hundred twenty-nine patients (52%) were infected by HCV-1, 74 (30%) by HCV-2, 34 (14%) by HCV-3, and 10 (4%) by HCV-4. Bridging fibrosis/cirrhosis (Ishak ≥ 4) was detected in 24% of patients. Age at infection had a marked effect on fibrosis progression by both a linear model and Cox proportional-hazard regression (P < 2E-16). A 12.1% increase in the hazard of advanced fibrosis was estimated for each additional year at infection, suggesting that this was the major explanatory variable in this cohort. Male gender (P < 0.05), HCV genotype 3 (P < 0.001) and steatosis (P < 0.05) were also associated with faster fibrosis progression. Conversely, the two IL28B polymorphisms had no impact on fibrosis progression. CONCLUSION: In HCV patients with a known date of infection, IL28B genotype was not associated with fibrosis progression rate or with the risk of developing advanced liver fibrosis.

Myosteatosis Is Not Associated with Complications or Survival in HCC Patients Undergoing Trans Arterial Embolization.

Alterations in nutritional status, in particular sarcopenia, have been extensively associated with a poor prognosis in cirrhotic patients regardless of the etiology of liver disease. Less is known about the predictive value of myosteatosis, defined as pathological fat infiltration into the skeletal muscle. We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 151 cirrhotic patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent their first trans-arterial embolization (TAE) between 1 March 2011 and 1 July 2019 at our Institution. Clinical and biochemical data were collected. Sarcopenia was assessed using the L3-SMI method while myosteatosis with a dedicated segmentation suite (3D Slicer), using a single slice at an axial plane located at L3 and calculating the IMAC (Intramuscular Adipose Tissue Content Index). The sex-specific cut-off values for defining myosteatosis were IMAC > −0.44 in males and >−0.31 in females. In our cohort, 115 (76%) patients were included in the myosteatosis group; 128 (85%) patients had a coexistent diagnosis of sarcopenia. Patients with myosteatosis were significantly older and showed higher BMI than patients without myosteatosis. In addition, male gender and alcoholic- or metabolic-related cirrhosis were most represented in the myosteatosis group. Myosteatosis was not associated with a different HCC burden, length of hospitalization, complication rate, and readmission in the first 30 days after discharge. Overall survival was not influenced by the presence of myosteatosis.