A threat to the natural World Heritage site rarely happens alone.

This study contributes an empirical investigation of the likelihood that different external threats to a UNESCO Natural World Heritage Site occur in combination with each other when site characteristics and location are controlled for. For the purpose of the analysis, the World Heritage database and the UNESCO State of Conservation Reports are used and the nine most frequently appearing external threats are identified. These databases include 6852 site-year observations and 3316 threats over the period 1979-2023. The most commonly identified external threats are illegal activities, with eleven percent of all observations and mining with six percent. Transport infrastructure, tourism and visitor pressure are also common threats. Estimation results based on the multivariate Probit (equation system) model demonstrate that there are strong positive correlations between many pairs of the nine external threats. Most apparent are the links between illegal activities and loss of identity, social cohesion, changes in local population and community, water infrastructure (dams) and farming, as well as illegal activities and land conversion. There are also clear links between tourism and infrastructure. This emphasises that the various threats seldom appear in isolation from each other. Results also highlight that the threats have different drivers. Among the determinants, site characteristics and location are the most important ones. The likelihood of threats is highest for Natural Heritage Sites covered by forests or those in marine and coastal areas, Africa as well as the Arab region. It is also possible to identify a general increase in threats over time, although with a diminishing rate of growth towards the period 2015-2019. Contrary to this development and the general downturn in threats during the Covid-19 pandemic period of 2020-2023, pressure from tourism continues to grow. Methodologically, the results emphasize the need for multivariate Probit models when research goes beyond analyses of descriptive statistics and single equation approaches.

Probability and severity of climate change threats to natural world heritage sites vary across site specifics and over time.

This study contributes a first comparison of current and potential threats to Natural World Heritage Sites from climate change, as assessed by experts, when site and location characteristics (size, year of inscription to the World Heritage list, continent, climate zone and kind of site) are controlled for. The probability of a threat as well as its intensity is analysed. Another novelty lies in the use of data from the IUCN Conservation Outlook Assessment, covering all 245 Natural and Mixed World Heritage Sites across the world for three points in time: 2014, 2017 and 2020. The threat of climate change is broadly defined and includes temperature extremes, rising temperatures, disappearing glaciers, coral bleaching, droughts, desertification, and rising sea levels. Results based on a simultaneous Probit model with random effects show that the probability of actual and potential climate change threats increases over time, but with differences for size, kind of site and location. The probability that a threat is identified is highest for marine and coastal sites, and for those in Latin America, while it is significantly lower for sites on the African continent. Larger sites have a higher probability of being assessed as at risk and the severity of threats is found to be lower for recently inscribed sites. The rate at which the likelihood of a threat assessment increases is consistent for both current and future situations, while the probability of the most severe threat is larger for the current than the future period. A serious threat from climate change is assessed as highest for locations in the tropical monsoon (current period) or the tropical savannah climate (future period). Estimations also show that pure descriptive statistics or bivariate correlations may not correctly identify the risk or the dignity of a threat.

Crafting impactful papers: Expectations and recommendations for Business and management articles.

This paper introduces Heliyon's Business and Management Section, established in 2023 as a platform committed to maintaining rigorous ethical and scientific publishing standards within the field. Prioritizing scientific correctness and technical soundness over mere novelty, it encompasses a wide range of research domains, encouraging contributions from scholars across diverse backgrounds. Within this guide, we provide insights into the process of preparing effective papers and offer constructive guidelines for the reviewing process. Authors will find valuable tools to align their work with the journal's expectations, incorporating current literature to enhance the probability of successful publication. Both aspiring authors and reviewers will benefit from this resource, which emphasizes academic and professional growth. By promoting collaboration and upholding high-quality standards, we aim to fortify the scholarly publishing community and advance knowledge in the field of business and management.