Survival of European adolescents and young adults diagnosed with cancer in 2000-07: population-based data from EUROCARE-5.

BACKGROUND: Data from EUROCARE have consistently shown lower survival for adolescents and young adults (AYAs; aged 15-24 years) than for children (0-14 years) for most cancers that affect both groups, and modest survival improvements up to 2000-02. AYAs have longer survival than that of adults for most cancers. We used the latest definition of AYAs (aged 15-39 years) and provided estimates of 5-year relative survival for European AYAs with cancer diagnosed in 2000-07, compared with children and adults (40-69 years) with cancer, and assessed survival improvements over time. METHODS: We analysed data from population-based cancer registries of 27 European countries participating in EUROCARE-5. We used the so-called complete method to estimate 5-year, population-weighted relative survival for 19 cancers affecting AYAs and children, and for 27 cancers affecting AYAs and adults. We assessed relative-survival differences between children versus AYAs, and between AYAs versus adults, using the Z test. We used the period approach to estimate 5-year relative survival over time for children and AYAs, and used a generalised linear model to model survival time trends (1999-2007) and to assess the significance of changes over time. FINDINGS: We analysed 56 505 cancer diagnoses in children, 312 483 in AYAs, and 3 567 383 in adults. For all cancers combined, survival improved over time for AYAs (from 79% [95% CI 78·1-80·5] in 1999-2002 to 82% [81·1-83·3] in 2005-07; p<0·0001) and children (from 76% [74·7-77·1] to 79% [77·2-79·4]; p<0·0001). Survival improved significantly in children and AYAs for acute lymphoid leukaemia (p<0·0001) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p<0·0001 in AYAs and p=0·023 in children). Survival improved significantly in AYAs only for CNS tumours (p=0·0046), astrocytomas (p=0·040), and malignant melanomas (p<0·0001). Survival remained significantly worse in AYAs than in children for eight important cancers: acute lymphoid leukaemias, acute myeloid leukaemias, Hodgkin's lymphomas, non-Hodgkin lymphomas, astrocytomas, Ewing's sarcomas, and rhabdomyosarcomas (p<0·0001 in all cases), and osteosarcomas (p=0·011). INTERPRETATION: Notwithstanding the encouraging results for some cancers, and overall, we showed poorer survival in AYAs than in children for the eight important cancers. Recent European initiatives to improve outcomes in AYAs might reduce the survival gap between children and AYAs, but this reduction can only be verified by future population-based studies. FUNDING: Italian Ministry of Health, European Commission.

Survival and cure trends for European children, adolescents and young adults diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia from 1982 to 2002.

Proportion cured is a potentially more informative cancer outcome measurement than 5-year survival. We present population-based estimates of cure for young patients diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Europe from 1982 to 2002. Thirty-five European cancer registries provided data. Survival was estimated by age, period of diagnosis and European region, and used as input for parametric cure models, which assume cured patients have the same mortality as the general population. For acute lymphoblastic leukemia diagnosed in 1-14 year olds in 2000-2002, over 77% were estimated cured. The proportion cured improved significantly over the study period: an impressive 26-58% in infants (up to 1 year), 70-90% in 1-4 year olds, 63-86% in 5-9 year olds, 52-77% in 10-14 year olds, and 44-50% in 15-24 year olds. Regional variations in proportion cured reduced over time for 1-14 year-olds, but persisted in infants and 15-24 year olds. Five-year survival was always slightly higher than proportion cured. Considerable proportions of young patients were estimated cured of acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Nevertheless, a small excess risk of death persisted beyond five years after diagnosis when patients remained at risk for late treatment effects, late relapses and second primaries.

A method for differentiating cancer prevalence according to health status, exemplified using a population-based sample of Italian colorectal cancer cases.

UNLABELLED: Cancer prevalence is the proportion of a population diagnosed with cancer. We present a method for differentiating prevalence into the proportions expected to survive without relapse, die of cancer within a year, and die of cancer within 10 years or survive with relapse at the end of the 10th year. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The method was applied to samples of colorectal cancer cases, randomly extracted from four Italian cancer registries (CRs). The CRs collected data on treatments, local relapses, distant relapses, and causes of death: 1) over the entire follow-up to 31 December 2007 for 601 cases diagnosed in 2002 (cohort approach); 2) over a single year (2007) for five cohorts of cases defined by year of diagnosis (from 1997 to 2001), alive at 1 January 2007 (total 298 cases). The cohorts were combined into a fictitious cohort with 10 years survival experience. For each year j after diagnosis the health status of cases alive at the beginning of j was estimated at the end of the 10th year. From these estimates the 10-year colorectal cancer prevalence was differentiated. RESULTS: We estimated: 74.7% alive without relapse or not undergoing treatment at the end of 10 years; 8.1% had died of colorectal cancer within a year; 11.4% had died of colorectal cancer 1-10 years after diagnosis or had relapsed or were undergoing treatment at the end of the 10th year; and 5.8% had died of other causes. CONCLUSIONS: We have introduced a new method for estimating the healthcare and rehabilitation demands of cancer survivors based on CR data plus treatment and relapse data specifically collected for samples of cases archived by CRs.

Progress in colorectal cancer survival in Europe from the late 1980s to the early 21st century: the EUROCARE study.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cause of death due to cancer causing death in Europe, accounting for more than 200,000 deaths per year. Prognosis strongly depends on stage at diagnosis, and the disease can be cured in most cases if diagnosed at an early stage. We aimed to assess trends and recent developments in 5-year relative survival in European countries, with a special focus on age, stage at diagnosis and anatomical cancer subsite. Data from 25 population-based cancer registries from 16 European countries collected in the context of the EUROCARE-4 project were analyzed. Using period analysis, age-adjusted and age-specific 5-year relative survival was calculated by country, European region, stage and cancer subsite for time periods from 1988-1990 to 2000-2002. Survival substantially increased over time in all European regions. In general, increases were more pronounced in younger than in older patients, for earlier than for more advanced cancer stages and for rectum than for colon cancer. Substantial variation of CRC survival between European countries and between age groups persisted and even tentatively increased over time. There is a huge potential for reducing the burden of CRC in Europe by more widespread and equal delivery of existing options of effective early detection and curative treatment to the European population.

Citrus fruit and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Citrus fruit has shown a favorable effect against various cancers. To better understand their role in cancer risk, we analyzed data from a series of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The studies included 955 patients with oral and pharyngeal cancer, 395 with esophageal, 999 with stomach, 3,634 with large bowel, 527 with laryngeal, 2,900 with breast, 454 with endometrial, 1,031 with ovarian, 1,294 with prostate, and 767 with renal cell cancer. All cancers were incident and histologically confirmed. Controls were admitted to the same network of hospitals for acute, nonneoplastic conditions. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated by multiple logistic regression models, including terms for major identified confounding factors for each cancer site, and energy intake. RESULTS: The ORs for the highest versus lowest category of citrus fruit consumption were 0.47 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.36-0.61) for oral and pharyngeal, 0.42 (95% CI, 0.25-0.70) for esophageal, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.52-0.92) for stomach, 0.82 (95% CI, 0.72-0.93) for colorectal, and 0.55 (95% CI, 0.37-0.83) for laryngeal cancer. No consistent association was found with breast, endometrial, ovarian, prostate, and renal cell cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that citrus fruit has a protective role against cancers of the digestive and upper respiratory tract.

Risk factors for falls in community-dwelling older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Falls are the main cause of accidental death in persons aged 65 years or older. METHODS: Using MEDLINE and previous reviews, we searched for prospective studies investigating risk factors for falls among community-dwelling older people. For risk factors investigated by at least 5 studies in a comparable way, we computed pooled odds ratios (ORs) using random-effects models, with a test for heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 74 studies met the inclusion criteria and 31 risk factors were considered, including sociodemographic, mobility, sensory, psychologic, and medical factors and medication use. The strongest associations were found for history of falls (OR = 2.8 for all fallers; OR = 3.5 for recurrent fallers), gait problems (OR = 2.1; 2.2), walking aids use (OR = 2.2; 3.1), vertigo (OR = 1.8; 2.3), Parkinson disease (OR = 2.7; 2.8), and antiepileptic drug use (OR = 1.9; 2.7). For most other factors, the ORs were moderately above 1. ORs were generally higher for recurrent fallers than for all fallers. For some factors, there was substantial heterogeneity among studies. For some important factors (eg, balance and muscle weakness), we did not compute a summary estimate because the measures used in various studies were not comparable. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis provides comprehensive evidence-based assessment of risk factors for falls in older people, confirming their multifactorial etiology. Some nonspecific indicators of high baseline risk were also strong predictors of the risk of falling.

Quality of Care Indicators for Head and Neck Cancers: The Experience of the European Project RARECAREnet.

Background: Monitoring and improving quality of cancer care has become pivotal today. This is especially relevant for head and neck cancers since the disease is complex, it needs multi therapy, patients tend to be older, they tend to have comorbidities and limited social support. However, information on quality of care for head and neck cancers is scarce. In the context of the project "Information Network on Rare Cancers" we aimed to identify indicators of quality of care specific for the head and neck cancers management and to measure the quality of care for head and neck cancers in different EU Member States. Methods: We defined indicators of quality of care for head and neck cancers based on a multidisciplinary and expert-based consensus process at a European level. To test the proposed indicators, we performed an observational population-based retrospective study in four countries (Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, and Slovenia) in the years 2009-2011. Results: The main quality indicators identified are: availability of formalized multidisciplinary team, participation in clinical and translational research; timeliness of care, high quality of surgery and radiotherapy, and of pathological reporting. For head and neck cancers, the quality of care did not reach the optimal standards in most of the countries analyzed. A high proportion of patients was diagnosed at an advanced disease stage, showed delays in starting treatment (especially for radiotherapy), and there was only a very limited use of multi therapy. Conclusions: According to the achieved consensus, indicators of quality of care for head and neck cancers have to cover the patient journey (i.e., diagnosis and treatment). Our results, showed suboptimal quality of care across countries and call for solutions for ensuring good quality of care for head and neck cancer patients in all EU countries. One possible option might be to refer head and neck cancer patients to specialized centers or to networks including specialized centers.

Family history of cancer and stomach cancer risk.

A family history of stomach cancer in first-degree relatives increases the risk of stomach cancer, but uncertainties remain as concerns the variation of the risk according to age, sex and type of relative, as well as on the role of family history of other cancers. We investigated the issue using data from a multicentric case-control study conducted in Italy between 1997 and 2007 on 230 cases aged not more than 80 years, with histologically confirmed incident gastric cancer and 547 controls admitted to hospital for acute, non neoplastic conditions. Logistic regression models adjusted for the effect of sex, age, year of interview, education, body mass index (BMI), tobacco smoking and number of brothers and sisters were used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) of stomach cancer. Relative to subjects with no history, those with a family history of gastric cancer had an OR of 2.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-4.2). No significant heterogeneity emerged according to sex or age of the proband or of the affected relative, or smoking habits, BMI and education of the proband. As suggested from previous studies the OR was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR=5.1, 95% CI: 1.3-20.6) rather than a parent (OR=2.2, 95% CI: 1.2-3.9), although the heterogeneity test was not significant. The risk of stomach cancer was not increased in subjects with a family history of cancer at any other site. The OR for all sites excluding stomach was 1.0 (95% CI: 0.7-1.4).

Family history and the risk of oral and pharyngeal cancer.

Scanty data are available on familial risk in oral and pharyngeal cancer. The relationship between oral and pharyngeal cancer and family history of cancer in first-degree relatives was investigated using data from a multicentric case-control study conducted in Italy and Switzerland between 1992 and 2005 on 956 cases aged less than 79 years, with histologically confirmed incident oral and pharyngeal cancer, and 2362 controls admitted to hospital for acute, nonneoplastic conditions. Logistic regression models conditioned on sex, age, study centre, and including terms for education, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and number of siblings were used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) of oral and pharyngeal cancer. The multivariate ORs were similar for a family history of oral and pharyngeal cancer (2.6, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.5-4.5) and laryngeal cancer (3.8, 95% CI, 2.0-7.2). The OR was 3.1 (95% CI, 2.0-4.8) for oral and pharyngeal cancer and laryngeal cancer combined. The OR was 7.1 (95% CI, 1.3-37.2) for subjects with 2 or more first-degree relatives with oral and pharyngeal/laryngeal cancers. Significant increases in risk were also observed for a family history of melanoma (OR = 5.8; 95% CI, 1.3-26.4) and lung cancer (OR = 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-2.0). Compared to subjects without family history, nonsmokers, and non or moderate drinkers, the OR was 42.6 for current smokers, heavy drinkers with family history. History of oral and pharyngeal cancer and laryngeal cancer is a strong determinant of oral and pharyngeal cancer risk, independent from tobacco and alcohol.

Alcohol and breast cancer risk defined by estrogen and progesterone receptor status: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption increases breast cancer risk. Some studies suggested that this association is stronger or limited to tumors expressing estrogen receptors (ER). METHODS: We investigated the role of alcohol according to ER and progesterone receptor (PR) status in a case-control study on breast cancer conducted from 1991 to 1994 in three Italian areas. Cases were 989 women with incident, histologically confirmed breast cancer. Controls were 1,350 women admitted to hospitals in the same catchment areas for acute nonneoplastic diseases. A validated food-frequency questionnaire was used to collect information on dietary habits and lifetime consumption of various alcoholic beverages. Multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). RESULTS: Alcohol drinking was associated with ER+ tumors (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.68-2.76 for an intake of > or =13.8 g/d as compared with nondrinkers). The odds ratio was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.07-1.20) for a 10-g increase in daily intake. For ER- tumors, the relation with alcohol consumption was not significant (odds ratio, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.93-2.01). When breast cancers were further classified according to PR, the findings for ER+PR+ cancers were similar to those for all ER+ ones, with an odds ratio of 2.34 (95% CI, 1.81-3.04) for an intake of > or =13.8 g/d. No significant association emerged for ER-PR- tumors (odds ratio, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.81-1.94). CONCLUSION: This study supports the hypothesis that alcohol is more strongly related to ER+ than to ER- breast tumors.

Family history of cancer and the risk of renal cell cancer.

Only scant information is available on the association between family history of kidney cancer and risk of renal cell cancer (RCC), particularly as concerns the variation of the risk according to sex, age, and type of relative or the association of family history of other cancers with RCC. We thus investigated the issue using data from a large multicentric case-control study conducted in Italy between 1992 and 2004 on 767 patients (494 men and 273 women) under age 80 years, with incident, histologically confirmed RCC, and 1,534 controls under age 80 years, admitted to hospital for a wide spectrum of acute, nonneoplastic conditions and frequency matched 2:1 to cases by center, sex, and age. Conditional logistic regression models, conditioned on center, sex, and age and adjusted for year of interview, smoking, body mass index, and number of brothers and sisters were used to estimate odds ratios (OR). Eighteen RCC and 8 controls reported a family history of kidney cancer in one first-degree relative [OR, 5.2; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.2-12.2]. No significant heterogeneity emerged according to sex or age of the proband or of the affected relative, or smoking habits, body mass index, and history of hypertension of the proband. Although not significant, the OR was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR, 7.0; 95% CI, 1.8-27.7) rather than a parent or child (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.5-12.9), as suggested from previous studies. The OR of RCC was also significantly elevated for a family history of prostate cancer (OR, 1.9), leukemias (OR, 2.2), or any cancer (OR, 1.5).

Survival of male genital cancers (prostate, testis and penis) in Europe 1999-2007: Results from the EUROCARE-5 study.

BACKGROUND: We provide updated estimates of survival and survival trends of male genital tumours (prostate, testicular and penis cancers), in Europe and across European areas. METHODS: The complete approach was used to obtain relative survival estimates for patients diagnosed in 2000-2007, and followed up through 2008 in 29 countries. Data came from 87 cancer registries (CRs) for prostate tumours and from 86 CRs for testis and penis tumours. Relative survival time trends in 1999-2007 were estimated by the period approach. Data came from 49 CRs in 25 countries. RESULTS: We analysed 1,021,275 male genital cancer cases. Five-year relative survival was high and decreased with increasing age for all tumours considered. We found limited variation in survival between European regions with Eastern Europe countries having lower survival than the others. Survival for penile cancer patients did not improve from 1999 to 2007. Survival for testicular cancer patients remained stable at high levels since 1999. Survival for prostate cancer patients increased over time. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment standardisation and centralisation for very rare diseases such as penile cancers or advanced testicular tumours should be supported. The high survival of testicular cancer makes long-term monitoring of testicular cancer survivors necessary and CRs can be an important resource. Prostate cancer patients' survival must be interpreted considering incidence and mortality data. The follow-up of the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer should continue to clarify the impact of screening on prostate cancer mortality together with population based studies including information on stage and treatments.

Cancer rehabilitation services: an Italian population-based cohort study.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: In Italy more than 55% of cancer patients live for more than 5 years after diagnosis, sometimes with several cancer-related sequelae. For this reason rehabilitation must offer not only physical interventions but also psychological, clinical, social and nutritional support. The CAREMORE pilot study was designed to assess whether cancer registries could serve to collect information on rehabilitation services, to describe and quantify the services provided by the National Health Service, and to examine the allocation of rehabilitation services to cancer patients. METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN: This was a pilot population-based cohort study. A sample of 1200 patients was identified from the databases of the Varese, Genoa, Reggio Emilia, Sassari and Ragusa cancer registries, all diagnosed in 2002 and followed for 5 years. For 4 cancer sites a list of rehabilitation items to be collected was drafted by a joint community of researchers and voluntary associations, with variables regarding rehabilitation data and follow-up. Data were analyzed by groups of patients, vital status, sex, and age. RESULTS: This pilot study suggested it is useful to collect information on several rehabilitation services: disability benefits, home care, aids and other support; it was not possible to collect reliable information on nutritional and psychological rehabilitation. In all, 36% of the sample applied for disability benefits, but with important differences between cancer sites. Eleven percent of the sample obtained home care, with no substantial differences between cancer sites, and 16% received at least one aid, with percentages varying from 27% for rectal cancer to 8% for lymphoma patients. CONCLUSIONS: The pilot study indicated that cancer registries could collect information on rehabilitation services. In the future it would be interesting to expand the roles of these registries to factors that influence quality of life, taking into account the possibility of collecting more information by actually interviewing patients.

Estimates of cancer burden in Abruzzo and Molise.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: Abruzzo and Molise are two regions located in the south of Italy, currently without population-based cancer registries. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence for the Abruzzo and Molise regions combined. METHODS: The MIAMOD method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and project the incidence of chronic diseases from mortality and patient survival, was used for the estimation of incidence and prevalence by calendar year (from 1970 to 2015) and age (from 0 to 99). The survival estimates are based on cancer registry data of southern Italy. RESULTS: The most frequently diagnosed cancers were those of the colon and rectum, breast and prostate, with 1,394, 1,341 and 698 new diagnosed cases, respectively, estimated in 2012. Incidence rates were estimated to increase constantly for female breast cancer, colorectal cancer in men and melanoma in both sexes. For prostate cancer and male lung cancer, the incidence rates increased, reaching a peak, and then decreased. In women the incidence of colorectal and lung cancer stabilized after an initial increase. For stomach and cervical cancers, the incidence rates showed a constant decrease. Prevalence was increasing for all the considered cancer sites with the exception of the cervix uteri. The highest prevalence values were estimated for breast and colorectal cancer with about 12,300 and over 8,200 cases in 2012, respectively. In the 2000s the mortality rates declined for all cancers except skin melanoma and female lung cancer, for which the mortality was almost stable. CONCLUSION: This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in Abruzzo and Molise until 2015. The increase in cancer survival, added to population aging, will inflate the cancer prevalence. In order to better evaluate the cancer burden in the two regions, it would be important to implement cancer registration.

Estimates of cancer burden in Liguria.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: The regional health care system of Liguria caters for a resident population which is among the oldest in Europe. One population-based cancer registry is present in the region, providing incidence and survival data for the Genoa province (covering 55% of the regional population). This paper will estimate the incidence, prevalence and mortality in the Liguria region for cancers of the lung, breast, prostate, colon-rectum, stomach and uterine cervix and melanoma of the skin in 1970-2015. METHODS: The estimated figures were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method. Starting from mortality and survival data, incidence and prevalence were derived using a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. The MIAMOD method was applied also to estimate the colorectal cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence rates in the Ligurian provinces in the period 1988-2015. RESULTS: In 2012 about 1,500 new cases of breast cancer were expected in Ligurian women. The estimates for the other cancer sites were considerably lower, ranging from 839 (colon-rectum) to 54 (cervix). In men about 1,400 new cases were estimated for prostate cancer, while the incidence for the other sites ranged from 1,118 (colon-rectum) to 208 (skin melanoma). The breast cancer prevalence rate was more than 10 times the incidence rate in women, and the lung cancer prevalence rate was more than double the incidence rate in both sexes. Mortality rates were highest for lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women; the lowest rates were estimated for melanoma and cancer of the uterine cervix. CONCLUSION: In Liguria a large portion of the health expenditure has been devoted to diagnostic and therapeutic resources. This may have contributed to the reduction of mortality rates and to the improvement of cancer survival. This phenomenon, added to population aging, will inflate the cancer prevalence. One of the major challenges for the Liguria region is to face the increasing demand for oncology services.

Estimates of cancer burden in Marche.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence of seven major cancers in the Marche region for the period 1970-2015. METHODS: The MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach, was applied to derive incidence and prevalence figures from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were used as the basis for survival modeling. RESULTS: Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer were the most frequent cancers in 2012, with 1,563, 1,215 and 1,191 estimated incident cases, and leading to 539, 224 and 228 deaths, respectively. Age-standardized rates were estimated to decrease for stomach and cervical cancer and to increase for skin melanoma and female lung cancer. In men, the lung cancer incidence rates reached their maximum level during the late 1980s and decreased thereafter. The colorectal cancer trend showed an initially increasing pattern, followed by a decrease in the last decade, both for men and women. The estimated incidence rates of prostate cancer presented a very steep rise in the period 1985-2002 and then remained stable at the high levels reached in 2003. The largest increases in prevalence were for breast, colorectal and prostate cancer, for which 17,098, 11,844 and 9,269 cases were estimated, respectively, in 2012. CONCLUSION. This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in the Marche region until 2015. The estimates were fairly consistent with previously published data by the Macerata province cancer registry. The MIAMOD method provides a picture of the impressive increase in the prevalence of breast cancer and prostate cancer over the period studied, thereby allowing to foresee an increasing demand for cancer care services as one of the major challenges for the regional health care system.

Estimates of cancer burden in Lazio.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: Since 1983 a population-based cancer registry has been operating in Lazio which provides incidence and survival data and covers the entire Latina province, amounting to 10% of the regional population. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence for seven major cancers in the Lazio region for the period 1970-2015. METHODS: The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. RESULTS: In 2012 the most frequent cancer sites were breast, colon-rectum and prostate with 5,529, 5,315 and 4,759 new diagnosed cases, respectively. The cancers with increasing incidence trends were breast cancer, lung cancer and skin melanoma in women, and prostate cancer, colorectal cancer and melanoma in men. The incidence rates of uterine cervix and stomach cancer decreased. The male lung cancer rates increased, reaching a peak in the late 1980s, and then decreased. Prevalence increased for all the considered cancers except cervix cancer. In 2012 breast, colorectal and prostate cancer had the highest prevalence, with 68,239, 36,617 and 33,934 prevalent cases, respectively. In the final period of the study the mortality declined for all cancers except female lung cancer. In 2012, the highest mortality rates were estimated for lung cancer in both men and women, with 89 and 40 deaths per 100,000, respectively. CONCLUSION: These estimates give a useful description of the present and future cancer patterns in the Lazio region. Incidence, mortality and prevalence projections provide new information for health resource planning. Furthermore, they point to the need to reinforce the organized screening programs, especially for breast and colorectal cancer.

Estimates of cancer burden in Piedmont and Aosta Valley.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: Cancer registration in Piedmont currently covers the city of Turin and the province of Biella, together representing 24% of the regional population. The objective of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence and mortality rates and prevalence proportions for cancer of the lung, breast, cervix, prostate, colon-rectum and stomach and melanoma of the skin for 2012 and the time trends up to 2015 for the Piedmont and Aosta Valley regions. METHODS: The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled in order to estimate the regional cancer survival. The MIAMOD estimates were also compared with those obtained by applying a method based on the mortality-incidence and prevalence-incidence ratios. RESULTS: The most frequently diagnosed cancers in absolute terms were prostate, colorectal, breast and lung cancer with about 5,000, 4,700, 3,300, and 2,900 new cases, respectively, in 2012. Incidence rates were rising for melanoma in both sexes and lung cancer in women, while they diminished for cervical and stomach cancer. For prostate cancer and male lung cancer the rates initially increased but were estimated to decrease in the most recent period. Colorectal cancer also increased up to the 1990s but was estimated to reach a plateau in the final years of estimation. Prevalence increased for all the considered cancers with the exception of cervical cancer. Mortality was declining for all considered cancers with the exception of lung cancer in women. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring indicators of the cancer burden is crucial for setting priorities among possible health system activities in a limited-resource setting. Piedmont has long invested in organized, population-based screening programs: these will have to be extended and accompanied by greater efforts in primary prevention.

Estimates of cancer burden in Tuscany.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: The Tuscan cancer registry has been operating since 1985, providing cancer incidence and survival data in Tuscany; it covers about 33% of the regional population. The purpose of this paper is to provide incidence, prevalence and mortality estimates for the major cancers in the whole Tuscany region for the period 1970-2015. METHODS: The estimated figures were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method. Starting from mortality and survival data, incidence and prevalence were derived using a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. RESULTS: According to the estimates, the most frequent cancer sites were colon-rectum in both genders, prostate in men and breast in women, with 4,188, 3,082 and 3,092 new diagnoses, respectively, in 2012. The incidence rates were steadily increasing for lung cancer in women and melanoma in both sexes, while they were decreasing for uterine cervix cancer in women, lung cancer in men and stomach cancer in both sexes. For colorectal cancer a small reduction in incidence was estimated for both sexes in recent years. The incidence rates for prostate cancer, after a steep increase and subsequent stabilization, were estimated to increase slightly in the last years. The breast cancer incidence was estimated to stabilize in the last 10 years. The mortality trends were decreasing for all considered cancers except female lung cancer. Prevalence increased for most of the studied cancers except stomach cancer in both sexes, lung cancer in men and cervix cancer in women. The highest prevalence was estimated for breast cancer, with over 42,000 cases in 2012. CONCLUSION: This paper provides an updated description of the cancer burden in Tuscany until 2015. These trends will have a significant impact on the regional health services and it is therefore important to enhance both primary prevention, for reducing the cancer incidence, and oncological surveillance, for evaluating the care and assistance of cancer patients.

Estimates of cancer burden in Umbria.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: Model-based estimates and projections of epidemiological indicators related to cancer are important tools to support public health policies and planning. The aim of the present study is to produce projections of cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence for the Umbria region (900,000 inhabitants) in central Italy. METHODS: The estimations were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled in order to estimate regional cancer survival. Estimated incidence rates were validated with observed incidence rates obtained from the Umbria regional cancer registry. RESULTS: The most frequent cancer sites estimated were colon-rectum, prostate and breast in women, with 970, 615 and 729 new diagnoses, respectively, in 2012. The incidence rates were increasing for female lung cancer, male colorectal cancer, and melanoma. By contrast, the rates have been declining for cervix and stomach cancer. For lung cancer and prostate cancer in men and colorectal cancer in women the rates increased, reaching a peak in different periods, and then decreased. The incidence rates of breast cancer rose, reaching a plateau in the mid 2010s. Favorable mortality trends were predicted for all cancers except skin melanoma and lung cancer in women. The prevalence of cancer was increasing with the only exception of cervical cancer in women and lung cancer in men in the most recent estimation period. CONCLUSION: The scenario found for cancer incidence and prevalence was largely influenced by screening activities, so that increasing or stable incidence rates may reflect active preventive efforts. Aging, screening, and more complex and costly treatments pose a problem of sustainability and selection of interventions to the regional oncology system. Evaluation of effectiveness of intervention and cost-benefit analyses will be important to ensure cancer control in the future.