Validation of the Pictorial Fit-Frail Scale in a Thoracic Surgery Clinic.

OBJECTIVE: Examine feasibility and construct validity of Pictorial Fit-Frail scale (PFFS) for the first time in older surgical patients. BACKGROUND: The PFFS uses visual images to measure health state in 14 domains and has been previously validated in outpatient geriatric clinics. METHODS: Patients ≥65 year-old who were evaluated in a multidisciplinary thoracic surgery clinic from November 2020 to May 2021 were prospectively included. Patients completed an in-person PFFS and Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES-13) during their visit, and a frailty index was calculated from the PFFS (PFFStrans). A geriatrician performed a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) either in-person or virtually, from which a Frailty Index (FI-CGA) and Frailty Questionnaire (FRAIL) scale were obtained. To assess the validity of the PFFS in this population, the Spearman rank correlations (r spearman ) between PFFS trans and VES-13, FI-CGA, FRAIL were calculated. RESULTS: All 49 patients invited to participate agreed, of which 46/49 (94%) completed the PFFS so a score could be calculated. The majority of patients (59%) underwent an in-person CGA and the reminder (41%) a virtual CGA. The cohort was mainly female (59.0%), with a median age of 77 (range: 67-90). The median PFFS trans was 0.27 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.12-0.34), PFFS was 11 (IQR 5-14), and 0.24 (IQR 0.13-0.32) for FI-CGA. We observed a strong correlation between the PFFS trans and FI-CGA (r spearman = 0.81, P < 0.001) and a moderate correlation between PFFS trans and VES-13 and FRAIL score (r spearman = 0.68 and 0.64 respectively, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: PFFS had good feasibility and construct validity among older surgical patients when compared to previously validated frailty measurements.

Thoracic surgery with geriatric assessment and collaboration can prepare frail older adults for lung cancer surgery.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We assessed frailty, measured by a comprehensive geriatric assessment-based frailty index (FI-CGA), and its association with postoperative outcomes among older thoracic surgical patients. METHODS: Patients aged ≥65 years evaluated in the geriatric-thoracic clinic between June 2016 through May 2020 who underwent lung surgery were included. Frailty was defined as FI-CGA > 0.2, and "occult frailty", a level not often recognized by surgical teams, as 0.2 < FI-CGA < 0.4. A qualitative analysis of geriatric interventions was performed. RESULTS: Seventy-three patients were included, of which 45 (62%) were nonfrail and 28 (38%) were frail. "Occult frailty" was present in 23/28 (82%). Sixty-one (84%) had lung malignancy. Geriatric interventions included delirium management, geriatric-specific pain and bowel regimens, and frailty optimization. More sublobar resections versus lobectomies (61% vs. 25%) were performed among frail patients. Frailty was not significantly associated with overall complications (odds ratio [OR]: 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88-6.44; p = 0.087), major complications (OR: 2.33; 95% CI: 0.48-12.69; p = 0.293), discharge disposition (OR: 2.8; 95% CI: 0.71-11.95; p = 0.141), or longer hospital stay (1.3 more days; p = 0.18). CONCLUSION: Frailty and "occult frailty" are prevalent in patients undergoing lung surgery. However, with integrated geriatric management, these patients can safely undergo surgery.

Association of cancer and Alzheimer's disease risk in a national cohort of veterans.

INTRODUCTION: To examine the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) among cancer survivors in a national database. METHODS: Retrospective cohort of 3,499,378 mostly male US veterans aged ≥65 years were followed between 1996 and 2011. We used Cox models to estimate risk of AD and alternative outcomes (non-AD dementia, osteoarthritis, stroke, and macular degeneration) in veterans with and without a history of cancer. RESULTS: Survivors of a wide variety of cancers had modestly lower AD risk, but increased risk of the alternative outcomes. Survivors of screened cancers, including prostate cancer, had a slightly increased AD risk. Cancer treatment was independently associated with decreased AD risk; those who received chemotherapy had a lower risk than those who did not. DISCUSSION: Survivors of some cancers have a lower risk of AD but not other age-related conditions, arguing that lower AD diagnosis is not simply due to bias. Cancer treatment may be associated with decreased risk of AD.

"I Can't Take Any Chances": A Mixed Methods Study of Frailty, Isolation, Worry, and Loneliness Among Aging Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Little is known about how frailty has shaped experiences of living through the COVID-19 pandemic. In this cross-sectional mixed methods study, we analyzed data from the nationwide COVID-19 Coping Study from December 2020 through January 2021 (N = 2094 US adults aged ≥55) to investigate quantitative associations between frailty and the prevalence of physical isolation, worry about COVID-19, and loneliness. Reflexive thematic analysis explored aging adults' lived experiences of frailty during the pandemic. In multivariable-adjusted population-weighted modified Poisson regression models, we found that frailty was associated with increased prevalence of physical isolation, worry about COVID-19, and loneliness. Qualitative experiences of aging with frailty during the pandemic were diverse, and encompassed isolation, worry, and loneliness, as well as coping strategies and resilience. The findings may inform individualized multi-factorial strategies (e.g., physical activity, nutrition, and social interaction) to support well-being among adults aging with frailty during the pandemic.

Perioperative Esophagectomy Outcomes in Older Esophageal Cancer Patients in Two Different Time Eras.

To investigate perioperative outcomes of esophagectomies by age groups. Retrospective analysis of esophageal cancer patients undergoing esophagectomy from 2005 to 2020 at a single academic institution. Baseline characteristics and outcomes were analyzed by 3 age groups: <70, 70-79, and ≥80 years-old. Sub-analysis was done for 2 time periods: 2005-2012 and 2013-2020. Of 1135 patients, 789 patients were <70, 294 were 70-79, and 52 were ≥80 years-old. Tumor characteristics, and operative technique were similar, except positive longitudinal margins rates (all <3%) (P = 0.008). Older adults experienced increased complications (53.6% vs 69.7% vs 65.4% respectively; P < 0.001) attributable to grade II complications (41.4% vs 62.2% vs 63.5% respectively; P < 0.001). Hospital length of stay (LOS) and rehabilitation requirements were higher in older adults (both P < 0.05). 30-day readmissions, reoperation, and 30-day mortality rates (all <2%) showed no association with age group. Overall complications, LOS, discharge disposition and re-operative rates improved from 2005 to 2012 to 2013-2020 for all (P < 0.05). Increasing age was an independent risk factor for cardiovascular complications (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.23-2.46 for ages 70-79 and OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.37-5.10 for ages ≥80 ), inpatient rehabilitation (OR 3.3, 95% CI 2.26-5.05 for ages 70-79 and OR 12.1 95% CI 5.83-25.04 for ages ≥80), and prolonged LOS (OR 1.64 95% CI 1.16-2.31 for ages 70-79 and OR 3.6 95% CI 1.71-7.67 for ≥80. After adjusting for time period, older age remained associated with complications (P < 0.05). Highly selected older adults at a large volume esophagectomy center can undergoesophagectomy with increased minor complication and rehabilitation needs.

From research to bedside: Incorporation of a CGA-based frailty index among multiple comanagement services.

The comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is the core tool used by geriatricians across diverse clinical settings to identify vulnerabilities and estimate physiologic reserve in older adults. In this paper, we demonstrate the iterative process at our institution to identify and develop a feasible, acceptable, and sustainable bedside CGA-based frailty index tool (FI-CGA) that not only quantifies and grades frailty but also provides a uniform way to efficiently communicate complex geriatric concepts such as reserve and vulnerability with other teams. We describe our incorporation of the FI-CGA into the electronic health record (EHR) and dissemination among clinical services. We demonstrate that an increasing number of patients have documented FI-CGA in their initial assessment from 2018 to 2020, while additional comanagement services were established (Figure 2). The acceptability and sustainability of the FI-CGA, and its routine use by geriatricians in our division, were demonstrated by a survey where the majority of clinicians report using the FI-CGA when assessing a new patient and that the FI-CGA informs their clinical management. Finally, we demonstrate how we refined and updated the FI-CGA, we provide examples of applications of the FI-CGA across the institution and describe areas of ongoing process improvement and challenges for the use of this tailored yet standardized tool across diverse inpatient and outpatient services. The process outlined can be used by other geriatric departments to introduce and incorporate an FI-CGA.

Long-term Outcomes Following Esophagectomy in Older and Younger Adults with Esophageal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patterns of overall and disease-free survival after esophagectomy for esophageal cancer in older adults have not been carefully studied. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all patients with esophageal cancer undergoing esophagectomy from 2005 to 2020 at our institution was performed. Differences in outcomes were stratified by age groups, < 75 and ≥ 75 years old, and two time periods, 2005-2012 and 2013-2020. RESULTS: A total of 1135 patients were included: 979 (86.3%) patients were < 75 (86.3%), and 156 (13.7%) were ≥ 75 years old. Younger patients had fewer comorbidities, better nutritional status, and were more likely to receive neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapy (all p < 0.05). However, tumor stage and operative approach were similar, except for increased performance of the McKeown technique in younger patients (p = 0.02). Perioperatively, younger patients experienced fewer overall and grade II complications (both p < 0.05). They had better overall survival (log-rank p-value < 0.001) and median survival, 62.2 vs. 21.5 months (p < 0.05). When stratified by pathologic stage, survival was similar for yp0 and pathologic stage II disease (both log-rank p-value > 0.05). Multivariable Cox models showed older age (≥ 75 years old) had increased hazard for reduced overall survival (HR 2.04 95% CI 1.5-2.8; p < 0.001) but not disease-free survival (HR 1.1 95% CI 0.78-1.6; p = 0.54). Over time, baseline characteristics remained largely similar, while stage became more advanced with a rise in neoadjuvant use and increased performance of minimally invasive esophagectomy (all p < 0.05). While overall complication rates improved (p < 0.05), overall and recurrence-free survival did not. Overall survival was better in younger patients during both time periods (both log-rank p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Despite similar disease-free survival rates, long-term survival was decreased in older adults as compared to younger patients. This may be related to unmeasured factors including frailty, long-term complications after surgery, and competing causes of death. However, our results suggest that survival is similar in those with complete pathologic responses.

Power and limitations of daily prognostications of death in the medical intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE: We tested the accuracy of predictions of impending death for medical intensive care unit patients, offered daily by their professional medical caretakers. DESIGN: For 560 medical intensive care unit patients, on each medical intensive care unit day, we asked their attending physicians, fellows, residents, and registered nurses one question: "Do you think this patient will die in the hospital or survive to be discharged?" RESULTS: We obtained>6,000 predictions on 2018 medical intensive care unit patient days. Seventy-five percent of MICU patients who stayed≥4 days had discordant predictions; that is, at least one caretaker predicted survival, whereas others predicted death before discharge. Only 107 of 206 (52%) patients with a prediction of "death before discharge" actually died in hospital. This number rose to 66% (96 of 145) for patients with 1 day of corroborated (i.e., >1) prediction of "death," and to 84% (79 of 94) with at least 1 unanimous day of predictions of death. However, although positive predictive value rose with increasingly stringent prediction criteria, sensitivity fell so that the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve did not differ for single, corroborated, or unanimous predictions of death. Subsets of older (>65 yrs) and ventilated medical intensive care unit patients revealed parallel findings. CONCLUSIONS: 1) Roughly half of all medical intensive care unit patients predicted to die in hospital survived to discharge nonetheless. 2) More highly corroborated predictions had better predictive value; although, approximately 15% of patients survived unexpectedly, even when predicted to die by all medical caretakers.

Outcomes of trimodality CROSS regimen in older adults with locally advanced esophageal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Chemoradiotherapy for Esophageal cancer followed by Surgery (CROSS regimen) is standard of care for locally-advanced esophageal cancer. We evaluated CROSS completion rates, toxicity, and postoperative outcomes between older and younger adults receiving trimodality therapy. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of patients with locally-advanced esophageal cancer who underwent CROSS regimen from May 2016 to January 2020 at a single academic center. Outcomes of those aged ≥70-years-old and <70 years-old were analyzed. RESULTS: Of 201 patients, 136 were <70 and 65 were ≥70 years. Older adults were more likely to be male (91% vs. 79%; p = 0.045), have higher ECOG scores (median 1 vs. 0; p = 0.003), Charlson-comorbidity index (median 6 vs. 4; p < 0.001), and undergo open procedures (20% vs. 8% p = 0.008). Most completed CROSS regimen (78% vs. 84% respectively) with similar rates of treatment discontinuation and dose reduction (all p > 0.05). Time to surgery following neoadjuvant therapy was similar between age groups, except in those ≥80-years-old as compared to <70-years-old (p < 0.05). Overall toxicity rates were similar (68% vs. 71% respectively; p = 0.676). Only rates of delirium (19% vs. 5%) and urinary retention (9% vs. 0%) were higher in older adults (both p < 0.05). Length of stay, discharge disposition, mortality, and overall survival were similar. Age was not an independent risk factor for complication, neoadjuvant toxicity or completion, surgery timing, nor worse overall or recurrence-free survival (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Trimodality CROSS regimen for esophageal cancer in older adults is feasible, with similar completion rates and postoperative outcomes as compared to their younger counterparts.

Opportunities for quality improvement in the morbidity pattern of older adults undergoing pulmonary lobectomy for cancer.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on the frequency of complications among older adults after oncological thoracic surgery in the modern era. We hypothesized that morbidity and mortality in older adults with lung cancer undergoing lobectomy is low and different than that of younger patients undergoing thoracic surgery. METHODS: All patients undergoing lobectomy at a large volume academic center between May 2016 and May 2019 were included. Patients were prospectively monitored to grade postoperative morbidity by organ system, based on the Clavien-Dindo classification. Patients were divided into two groups: Group 1 included patients 65-91 years of age, and Group 2 included those <65 years. RESULTS: Of 680 lobectomies in 673 patients, 414(61%) were older than 65 years of age (group 1). Median age at surgery was 68 years (20-91). Median hospital stay was 4 days (1-38) and longer in older adults. Older adults experienced higher rates of grade II and IV complications, mostly driven by an increased incidence of delirium, atrial fibrillation, prolonged air leak, respiratory failure and urinary retention. In this modern cohort, there was only 1 stroke (0.1%), and delirium was reduced to 7%. Patients undergoing minimally invasive (MI) surgery had a lower rate of Grade IV life-threatening complications. Older adults were more likely to be discharged to a rehabilitation facility, however this difference also disappeared with MI surgical procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Current morbidity of older adults undergoing lobectomy for cancer is low and is different than that of younger patients. Thoracotomy may be associated with postoperative complications in these patients. Our findings suggest the need to consider MI approaches and broad-based, geriatric-focused perioperative management of older adults undergoing lobectomy.

Launching a Geriatric Surgery Center: Recommendations from the Society for Perioperative Assessment and Quality Improvement.

To prepare for the increasing numbers of older adults undergoing surgery, the American College of Surgeons (ACS) has recently launched the Geriatric Surgery Verification Program with the goal of encouraging the creation of centers of geriatric surgery. Meanwhile, the Society for Perioperative Assessment and Quality Improvement (SPAQI) has published recommendations for the preoperative management of frailty, which state that teams should actively screen for frailty before surgery and that pathways, including geriatric comanagement, shared decision-making, and multimodal prehabilitation, should be embedded in routine care to help improve patient outcomes. Both SPAQI and the ACS advocate for a multidisciplinary approach to improve the value of care for older adults undergoing surgery. However, the best way to implement geriatric services in the surgical setting is yet to be determined. In this statement, we will describe the SPAQI recommendations for launching a geriatric surgery center and the process by which its value should be assessed over time.

Disease Trajectories and End-of-Life Care for Dementias: Latent Topic Modeling and Trend Analysis Using Clinical Notes.

Despite the increasing prevalence, growing costs, and high mortality of dementia in older adults in the U.S., little is known about the course of these diseases and what care dementia patients receive in their final years of life. Using a large volume of clinical notes of dementia patients over the last two years of life, we conducted automatic topic modeling to capture the trends of various themes mentioned in care provider notes, including patients' physical function status, mental health, falls, nutrition and feeding, infections, hospital care, intensive care, end-of-life care, and family and social supports. Our research contributes to the adoption and evaluation of an unsupervised machine learning method using large amounts of retrospective free-text electronic health record data to discover and understand illness and health care trajectories.

Some are old, some are new: life and death in the ICU.

We compared 560 adults hospitalized in our Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) to 245 ventilated babies hospitalized in our Neonatal ICU (NICU). Both ICUs had comparable mortality rates--roughly 1 patient in 5 died. The average length of hospitalization for nonsurvivors versus survivors was disproportionately short for NICU babies (13d v 33d) and long for MICU adults (15d v 12d). This phenomenon resulted in a redistribution of ICU bed-days and resources in favor of survivors for NICU babies (approximately 9 of every 10 NICU beds were devoted to babies who survived), and nonsurvivors for MICU adults (roughly 1 MICU bed in 2). Both ICUs had comparable percentages of patients predicted to die--roughly 1 patient in 3. The predictive power of an intuition of die was comparable--and not all that great. Almost one third of patients in both ICUs with a single prediction of "die in hospital" survived to be discharged. However, the likelihood of finding a neurologically normal NICU survivor after a prediction of "die" was only 5 in 100. To the extent that informed decisions can be made with 95% certainty, we may have found a foothold on the slippery ethical slope of benefit/burden calculations in the NICU. Unfortunately, we have no comparable data for MICU survivors.

Serial assessment of mortality in the neonatal intensive care unit by algorithm and intuition: certainty, uncertainty, and informed consent.

OBJECTIVES: Does predictive power for outcomes of neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) patients get better with time? Or does it get worse? We determined the predictive power of Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology (SNAP) scores and clinical intuitions as a function of day of life (DOL) for newborn infants admitted to our NICU. METHODS: We identified 369 infants admitted to our NICU during 1996-1997 who required mechanical ventilation. We calculated SNAP scores on DOL 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 14, 21, 28, and weekly thereafter until either death or extubation. We also asked nurses, residents, fellows, and attendings on each day of mechanical ventilation: "Do you think this child is going to live to go home to their family, or die before hospital discharge?" RESULTS: Two thousand twenty-eight SNAP scores were calculated for 285 infants. On DOL 1, SNAP for nonsurvivors (24 +/- 8.7 [standard deviation]) was significantly higher than SNAP for survivors (13 +/- 6.1). However, this difference diminished steadily and by DOL 10 was no longer statistically significant (12.7 +/- 4.9 vs 10.0 +/- 4.8). On each NICU day, at all ranges of SNAP scores, there were at least as many infants who would ultimately survive as would die. Consequently, the positive predictive value of any SNAP value for subsequent mortality was <0.5 on all NICU days. Prediction profiles were obtained for 230 ventilated infants reflecting over 11 000 intuitions obtained on 2867 patient days. One hundred fifty-seven (81%) of 192 survivor profiles displayed consistent accurate prediction profiles-at least 90% of their NICU ventilation days were characterized by 100% prediction of survival. Twenty-five (13%) of 192 surviving infants survived somewhat unexpectedly; that is, after at least 1 day characterized by at least 1 estimate of "death." Thirty-three (60%) of the 55 nonsurvivors died before DOL 10. Eighty-two percent of the prediction profiles for these early dying infants were homogeneous, dismal, and accurate. Twenty-two (40%) of the 55 nonsurvivors died after DOL 10. Seventeen (78%) of these 22 late-dying infants were predicted to live by many observers on many hospital days. Sixty-one (30%) of 230 profiled patients had at least 1 NICU day characterized by at least 1 prediction of death; 26/61 (43%) of these patients were incorrectly predicted; that is, they survived. Seventeen infants who were predicted to die during but survived nonetheless were assessed neurologically at 1 year. Fourteen (82%) of these 17 were not neurologically normal-8 were clearly abnormal, 1 suspicious, and 5 had died. CONCLUSIONS: If absolute certainty about mortality is the only criterion that can justify a decision to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment in the NICU, these data would make such decisions difficult on the first day of life, and increasingly problematic thereafter. However, if we acknowledge that medicine is inevitably an inexact science and that clinical predictions can never be perfect, we can ask the more interesting question of whether good but less-than-perfect predictions of imprecise but ethically relevant clinical outcomes can still be useful. We think that they can-and that they must.