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OBJECTIVE: To assess the probability of being cured from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) by pancreatic surgery. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Statistical cure implies that a patient treated for a specific disease will have the same life expectancy as if he/she never had that disease. METHODS: Patients who underwent pancreatic resection for PDAC between 2010 and 2021 were retrospectively identified using a multi-institutional database. A non-mixture statistical cure model was applied to compare disease-free survival to the survival expected for matched general population. RESULTS: Among 2554 patients, either in the setting of upfront (n=1691) or neoadjuvant strategy (n=863), the cure model showed that the probability that surgery would offer the same life-expectancy (and tumor-free) as the matched general population was 20.4% (95%CI: 18.3, 22.5). Cure likelihood reached the 95% of certainty (time-to-cure) after 5.3 years (95%CI: 4.7, 6.0). A preoperative model was developed based on tumor stage at diagnosis (P=0.001), radiological size (P=0.001), response to chemotherapy (P=0.007), American Society of Anesthesiology class (P=0.001) and pre-operative Ca19-9 (P=0.001). A post-operative model with the addition of surgery type (P=0.015), pathological size (P=0.001), tumour grading (P=0.001), resection margin (P=0.001), positive lymphnode ratio (P=0.001) and the receipt of adjuvant therapy (P=0.001) was also developed. CONCLUSIONS: Patients operated for PDAC can achieve a life-expectancy similar to that of general population and the likelihood of cure increases with the passage of recurrence-free time. An online calculator was developed and available at https://aicep.website/?cff-form=15.
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Importance: There are currently no clinically relevant criteria to predict a futile up-front pancreatectomy in patients with anatomically resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Objectives: To develop a futility risk model using a multi-institutional database and provide unified criteria associated with a futility likelihood below a safety threshold of 20%. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective study took place from January 2010 through December 2021 at 5 high- or very high-volume centers in Italy. Data were analyzed during April 2024. Participants included consecutive patients undergoing up-front pancreatectomy at the participating institutions. Exposure: Standard management, per existing guidelines. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome measure was the rate of futile pancreatectomy, defined as an operation resulting in patient death or disease recurrence within 6 months. Dichotomous criteria were constructed to maintain the futility likelihood below 20%, corresponding to the chance of not receiving postneoadjuvant resection from existing pooled data. Results: This study included 1426 patients. The median age was 69 (interquartile range, 62-75) years, 759 patients were male (53.2%), and 1076 had head cancer (75.4%). The rate of adjuvant treatment receipt was 73.7%. For the model construction, the study sample was split into a derivation (n = 885) and a validation cohort (n = 541). The rate of futile pancreatectomy was 18.9% (19.2% in the development and 18.6% in the validation cohort). Preoperative variables associated with futile resection were American Society of Anesthesiologists class (95% CI for coefficients, 0.68-0.87), cancer antigen (CA) 19.9 serum levels (95% CI, for coefficients 0.05-0.75), and tumor size (95% CI for coefficients, 0.28-0.46). Three risk groups associated with an escalating likelihood of futile resection, worse pathological features, and worse outcomes were identified. Four discrete conditions (defined as CA 19.9 levels-adjusted-to-size criteria: tumor size less than 2 cm with CA 19.9 levels less than 1000 U/mL; tumor size less than 3 cm with CA 19.9 levels less than 500 U/mL; tumor size less than 4 cm with CA 19.9 levels less than 150 U/mL; and tumor size less than 5 cm with CA 19.9 levels less than 50 U/mL) were associated with a futility likelihood below 20%. Both disease-free survival and overall survival were significantly longer in patients fulfilling the criteria. Conclusions and relevance: In this study, a preoperative model (MetroPancreas) and dichotomous criteria to determine the risk of futile pancreatectomy were developed. This might help in selecting patients for up-front resection or neoadjuvant therapy.
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Endometrial carcinoma is the most common neoplasia of female genital tract. The prognosis of early stage disease (FIGO I and FIGO II) is excellent: recurrence after surgery is less than 15%, most of which are reported within 3 years after primary treatment. Herein we report a case of late rectal recurrence from FIGO Ib endometrial adenocarcinoma. Patient had also familiar and personal history of colonic adenocarcinoma and previous findings of microsatellite instability (MSI); molecular analysis evidenced heterozygotic somatic mutation in MLH1 gene. Twenty-eight years after hysterectomy and bilateral salpingoovariectomy, a rectal wall mass was detected during routine colonoscopy. Patients underwent CT scan, pelvic MRI, and rectal EUS with FNA: histopathological and immunohistochemical analysis revealed differentiated carcinoma cells of endometrial origin. No neoadjuvant treatment was planned and low rectal anterior resection with protective colostomy was performed; histology confirmed rectal lesion as metastasis from endometrial carcinoma. Recurrence of early stage endometrial carcinoma after a long period from primary surgery is possible. It is important to keep in mind this possibility in order to set a correct diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm, including preoperative immunohistochemical staining, and to plan a prolonged follow-up program.