Adequate versus deep response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: To what extent and under what conditions is normal alkaline phosphatase level associated with complication-free survival gain?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Normal alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels in ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-treated patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are associated with better long-term outcome. However, second-line therapies are currently recommended only when ALP levels remain above 1.5 times the upper limit of normal (×ULN) after 12-month UDCA. We assessed whether, in patients considered good responders to UDCA, normal ALP levels were associated with significant survival gains. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1047 patients with PBC who attained an adequate response to UDCA according to Paris-2 criteria. Time to liver-related complications, liver transplantation, or death was assessed using adjusted restricted mean survival time (RMST) analysis. The overall incidence rate of events was 17.0 (95% CI: 13.7-21.1) per 1000 out of 4763.2 patient-years. On the whole population, normal serum ALP values (but not normal gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), or aspartate aminotransferase (AST); or total bilirubin < 0.6 ×ULN) were associated with a significant absolute complication-free survival gain at 10 years (mean 7.6 months, 95% CI: 2.7 - 12.6 mo.; p = 0.003). In subgroup analysis, this association was significant in patients with a liver stiffness measurement ≥ 10 kPa and/or age ≤ 62 years, with a 10-year absolute complication-free survival gain of 52.8 months (95% CI: 45.7-59.9, p < 0.001) when these 2 conditions were met. CONCLUSIONS: PBC patients with an adequate response to UDCA and persistent ALP elevation between 1.1 and 1.5 ×ULN, particularly those with advanced fibrosis and/or who are sufficiently young, remain at risk of poor outcome. Further therapeutic efforts should be considered for these patients.

Dynamics of Liver Stiffness Measurement and Clinical Course of Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), static liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has proven prognostic value. However, the added prognostic value of LSM time course in this disease remains uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an international retrospective cohort study among patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid and followed by vibration-controlled transient elastography between 2003 and 2022. Using joint modeling, the association of LSM trajectory and the incidence of serious clinical events (SCE), defined as cirrhosis complications, liver transplantation, or death, was quantified using the hazard ratio and its confidence interval. RESULTS: A total of 6362 LSMs were performed in 3078 patients (2007 on ursodeoxycholic acid alone; 13% with cirrhosis), in whom 316 SCE occurred over 14,445 person-years (median follow-up, 4.2 years; incidence rate, 21.9 per 1000 person-years). LSM progressed in 59% of patients (mean, 0.39 kPa/year). After adjusting for prognostic factors at baseline, including LSM, any relative change in LSM was associated with a significant variation in SCE risk (P < .001). For example, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) associated with a 20% annual variation in LSM were 2.13 (1.89-2.45) for the increase and 0.40 (0.33-0.46) for the decrease. The association between LSM trajectory and SCE risk persisted regardless of treatment response or duration, when patients with cirrhosis were excluded, and when only death or liver transplantation was considered. CONCLUSIONS: Tracking longitudinal changes in LSM using vibration-controlled transient elastography provides valuable insights into PBC prognosis, offering a robust predictive measure for the risk of SCE. LSM could be used as a clinically relevant surrogate end point in PBC clinical trials.

Unmet needs in autoimmune hepatitis: Results of the prospective multicentre European Reference Network Registry (R-LIVER).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The European Reference Network on Hepatological Diseases (ERN RARE-LIVER) launched the prospective, multicentre, quality-controlled R-LIVER registry on rare liver diseases. The aim of this study was to assess the presentation and outcome of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) after 1 year of treatment. METHODS: Data were prospectively collected at the time of diagnosis and after 6 and 12 months follow-up. Complete biochemical response (CBR) was defined as normalization of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) serum levels. RESULTS: A total of 231 patients from six European centres were included in the analysis. After 6 months of treatment 50% (106/212), and after 12 months 63% (131/210) of patients reached CBR with only 27% (56/211) achieving a steroid-free CBR within the first year. Overall, 16 different treatment regimens were administered. Change of treatment, mostly due to intolerance, occurred in 30.4% within the first 6 months. In multivariate analysis, younger age at diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] = 1.03 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.05]; p = .007), severe fibrosis (OR .38 [95% .16-.89], p = .026) and change of treatment within the first 6 months (OR .40 [95% CI .2-.86]; p = .018) were associated with a lesser chance of ALT normalization at 12 months follow-up. CONCLUSION: The landscape of AIH treatment in Europe is highly heterogeneous, even between expert centres. The results from this first European multicentre prospective registry reveal several unmet needs, highlighted by the overall low rates of CBR and the frequent failure to withdraw corticosteroids.

Efficacy and safety of palliative treatment in patients with autoimmune liver disease-associated hepatocellular carcinoma.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Autoimmune liver diseases (AILD) are rare causes hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). and data on the efficacy and tolerability of anti-tumour therapies are scarce. This pan-European study aimed to assess outcomes in AILD-HCC patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) compared with patients with more common HCC etiologies, including viral, alcoholic or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 107 patients with HCC-AILD (AIH:55; PBC:52) treated at 13 European centres between 1996 and 2020 were included. 65 received TACE and 28 received TKI therapy. 43 (66%) were female (median age 73 years) with HCC tumour stage BCLC A (34%), B (46%), C (9%) or D (11%). For each treatment type, propensity score matching was used to match AILD to non-AILD-HCC on a 1:1 basis, yielding in a final cohort of 130 TACE and 56 TKI patients for comparative analyses of median overall survival (mOS) and treatment tolerability. RESULTS: HCC-AILD patients showed comparable mOS to controls for both TACE (19.5 vs 22.1 months, p=0.9) and TKI (15.4 vs 15.1 months, p=0.5). Adverse events were less frequent in AILD-HCC patients than controls (33% vs 62%, p=0.003). For TKIs, there were no significant differences in adverse events (73% vs. 86%, p=0.2) or interruption rates (44% vs. 36%, p=0.7). CONCLUSIONS: In summary, this study demonstrates comparable mOS for AILD-HCC patients undergoing local and systemic treatments, with better tolerability than HCC of other causes. TKIs remain important therapeutic options for AILD-HCC patients, particularly given their exclusion from recent immunotherapy trials.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment-Induced GLOBE Score Changes Are Associated With Liver Transplantation-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0-1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1-2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Interferon gamma-induced protein 10 (IP-10) for the early prognosis of the risk for severe respiratory failure and death in COVID-19 pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: Elevated concentrations of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) predict progression to severe respiratory failure (SRF) or death among patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and guide early anakinra treatment. As suPAR testing may not be routinely available in every health-care setting, alternative biomarkers are needed. We investigated the performance of C-reactive protein (CRP), interferon gamma-induced protein-10 (IP-10) and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) for predicting SRF or death in COVID-19. METHODS: Two cohorts were studied; one discovery cohort with 534 patients from the SAVE-MORE clinical trial; and one validation cohort with 364 patients from the SAVE trial including also 145 comparators. CRP, IP-10 and TRAIL were measured by the MeMed Key® platform in order to select the biomarker with the best prognostic performance for the early prediction of progression into SRF or death. RESULTS: IP-10 had the best prognostic performance: baseline concentrations 2000 pg/ml or higher predicted equally well to suPAR (sensitivity 85.0 %; negative predictive value 96.6 %). Odds ratio for poor outcome among anakinra-treated participants of the SAVE-MORE trial was 0.35 compared to placebo when IP-10 was 2,000 pg/ml or more. IP-10 could divide different strata of severity for SRF/death by day 14 in the validation cohort. Anakinra treatment decreased this risk irrespective the IP-10 concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: IP-10 concentrations of 2,000 pg/ml or higher are a valid alternative to suPAR for the early prediction of progression into SRF or death the first 14 days from hospital admission for COVID-19 and they may guide anakinra treatment. CLINICALTRIALS: gov, NCT04680949 and NCT04357366.

Optimizing therapy in primary biliary cholangitis: Alkaline phosphatase at six months identifies one-year non-responders and predicts survival.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. METHODS: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. RESULTS: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82-1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72-3.69) at six months (p < .001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. CONCLUSIONS: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

Liver stiffness measurement by vibration-controlled transient elastography improves outcome prediction in primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) has been shown to predict outcomes of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) in small-size studies. We aimed to validate the prognostic value of LSM in a large cohort study. METHODS: We performed an international, multicentre, retrospective follow-up study of 3,985 patients with PBC seen at 23 centres in 12 countries. Eligibility criteria included at least 1 reliable LSM by VCTE and a follow-up ≥ 1 year. Independent derivation (n = 2,740) and validation (n = 568) cohorts were built. The primary endpoint was time to poor clinical outcomes defined as liver-related complications, liver transplantation, or death. Hazard ratios (HRs) with CIs were determined using a time-dependent multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: LSM was independently associated with poor clinical outcomes in the derivation (5,324 LSMs, mean follow-up 5.0 ± 3.1 years) and validation (1,470 LSMs, mean follow-up 5.0 ± 2.8 years) cohorts: adjusted HRs (95% CI) per additional kPa were 1.040 (1.026-1.054) and 1.042 (1.029-1.056), respectively (p <0.0001 for both). Adjusted C-statistics (95% CI) at baseline were 0.83 (0.79-0.87) and 0.92 (0.89-0.95), respectively. Between 5 and 30 kPa, the log-HR increased as a monotonic function of LSM. The predictive value of LSM was stable in time. LSM improved the prognostic ability of biochemical response criteria, fibrosis scores, and prognostic scores. The 8 kPa and 15 kPa cut-offs optimally separated low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Forty percent of patients were at medium to high risk according to LSM. CONCLUSIONS: LSM by VCTE is a major, independent, validated predictor of PBC outcome. Its value as a surrogate endpoint for clinical benefit in PBC should be considered. LAY SUMMARY: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic autoimmune disease, wherein the body's immune system mistakenly attacks the bile ducts. PBC progresses gradually, so surrogate markers (markers that predict clinically relevant outcomes like the need for a transplant or death long before the event occurs) are often needed to expedite the drug development and approval process. Herein, we show that liver stiffness measurement is a strong predictor of clinical outcomes and could be a useful surrogate endpoint in PBC trials.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients with autoimmune hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding outcome of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in vaccinated patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) are lacking. We evaluated the outcome of COVID-19 in AIH patients who received at least one dose of Pfizer- BioNTech (BNT162b2), Moderna (mRNA-1273) or AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1-S) vaccine. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective study on AIH patients with COVID-19. The outcomes of AIH patients who had acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infection after at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine were compared to unvaccinated patients with AIH. COVID-19 outcome was classified according to clinical state during the disease course as: (i) no hospitalization, (ii) hospitalization without oxygen supplementation, (iii) hospitalization with oxygen supplementation by nasal cannula or mask, (iv) intensive care unit (ICU) admission with non-invasive mechanical ventilation, (v) ICU admission with invasive mechanical ventilation or (vi) death, and data was analyzed using ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS: We included 413 (258 unvaccinated and 155 vaccinated) patients (81%, female) with a median age of 52 (range: 17-85) years at COVID-19 diagnosis. The rates of hospitalization were (36.4% vs. 14.2%), need for any supplemental oxygen (29.5% vs. 9%) and mortality (7% vs. 0.6%) in unvaccinated and vaccinated AIH patients with COVID-19. Having received at least one dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine was associated with a significantly lower risk of worse COVID-19 severity, after adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities and presence of cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.18, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.10-0.31). Overall, vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 was associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality from COVID-19 (aOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.11-0.35). CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination significantly reduced the risk of COVID-19 severity and mortality in patients with AIH.

Significance of serum HBV RNA in non-cirrhotic HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B patients who discontinue effective antiviral therapy.

HBV RNA is considered as a promising predictor in patients who discontinue nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs). We determined HBV RNA levels in non-cirrhotic HBeAg-negative patients who discontinued NAs and assessed their predictability for 12-month outcomes. Fifty-seven patients of DARING-B study were included. HBV RNA levels were determined in stored monthly serum samples drawn at 0-3 months after end of therapy (EOT). Other markers previously determined in the same cohort including hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) were also assessed. HBV RNA at EOT was detectable in 7% of patients, who developed virological/clinical relapse and required retreatment at month 2; in patients with undetectable EOT HBV RNA, 12-month cumulative rates of virological relapse, clinical relapse and retreatment were 68%, 28% and 21%, respectively (p ≤ 0.008). HBV RNA at month-1 after EOT was detectable in 19% of patients being associated with higher probability only of virological relapse (p = 0.001). HBV RNA levels correlated significantly to HBV DNA, HBcrAg, ALT and interferon-induced protein-10, but not HBsAg levels. Combined EOT HBV RNA and HBcrAg detection and/or HBsAg >1000 IU/ml was associated only with higher probability of retreatment having higher sensitivity and lower specificity than HBV RNA alone. In conclusion, serum HBV RNA is detectable in a minority of non-cirrhotic HBeAg-negative patients under effective long-term NAs therapy offering low sensitivity but 100% specificity for early retreatment due to severe clinical relapses after NA discontinuation. The combinations of EOT HBV RNA with HBcrAg and/or high HBsAg levels increase sensitivity but decrease specificity for prediction of retreatment after NAs withdrawal.

Hepatocellular carcinoma after treatment cessation in non-cirrhotic HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B: A multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Scarce data exist on the effect of nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) discontinuation on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHBe-). Therefore, we assessed whether HCC risk is increased in non-cirrhotic CHBe- patients who discontinue compared to those remaining on NAs. METHODS: This cohort study included 650 consecutive non-cirrhotic Caucasian or Asian patients with CHBe- without a history of HCC who discontinued NAs after a median of 5 or 3 years (cases, n = 325; Caucasians: 143, Asians: 182) or remained on NA therapy beyond 5 or 3 years respectively (controls, n = 325; Caucasians: 223, Asians: 102). Propensity score (PS) 1:1 matching was applied to adjust for patients' origin, age and sex. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 44 months, HCC developed in 7/325 cases and 9/325 controls or 7/245 PS-matched cases and 7/245 PS-matched controls with 5-year cumulative HCC incidence of 5.1% and 4.9% respectively (log-rank, P = .836). No difference in 5-year HCC risk was observed between cases and controls of Caucasian (3.0% vs 4.8%; log-rank, P = .510) or Asian origin (1.3% vs 2.2%; log-rank, P = .873). In both cases and controls, HCC incidence was independently associated with age and PAGE-B score. In cases alone, HCC development after NA discontinuation was associated only with pretreatment platelet counts and PAGE-B score, but not with any type of relapse or HBsAg loss. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that discontinuation of effective long-term NA therapy in non-cirrhotic CHBe- patients are not associated with increased HCC risk, which is not affected by post-NA relapses and/or HBsAg loss.

Measurement of Gamma Glutamyl Transferase to Determine Risk of Liver Transplantation or Death in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a serum marker of cholestasis. We investigated whether serum level of GGT is a prognostic marker for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: We analyzed data from patients with PBC from the Global PBC Study Group, comprising 14 centers in Europe and North America. We obtained measurements of serum GGT at baseline and time points after treatment. We used Cox model hazard ratios to evaluate the association between GGT and clinical outcomes, including liver transplantation and liver-related death. RESULTS: Of the 2129 patients included in our analysis, 281 (13%) had a liver-related clinical endpoint. Mean age at diagnosis was 53 years and 91% of patients were female patients. We found a correlation between serum levels of GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (r = 0.71). Based on data collected at baseline and yearly for up to 5 years, higher serum levels of GGT were associated with lower hazard for transplant-free survival. Serum level of GGT at 12 months after treatment higher than 3.2-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN) identified patients who required liver transplantation or with liver-related death at 10 years with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70. The risk of liver transplantation or liver-related death in patients with serum level of GGT above 3.2-fold the ULN, despite level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN, was higher compared to patients with level of GGT lower than 3.2-fold the ULN and level of ALP lower than 1.5-fold the ULN (P < .05). Including information on level of GGT increased the prognostic value of the Globe score. CONCLUSIONS: Serum level of GGT can be used to identify patients with PBC at risk for liver transplantation or death, and increase the prognostic value of ALP measurement. Our findings support the use of GGT as primary clinical endpoint in clinical trials. In patients with low serum level of ALP, a high level of GGT identifies those who might require treatment of metabolic disorders or PBC treatment escalation.

A Comparison of Prognostic Scores (Mayo, UK-PBC, and GLOBE) in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Autoimmune hepatitis in patients aged 70 years or older: Disease characteristics, treatment response and outcome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) affects both sexes and all age groups. However, very few studies have focused specifically on the characteristics and outcome of AIH in patients aged 70 y or older. METHODS: 25/234 patients with well-established AIH and disease onset at ≥70-y (median: 73-y) were analysed and compared to the rest patients (median: 47 y). Treatment response was assessed in all patients from both groups who were eligible for treatment (n = 202). RESULTS: Disease presentation was mainly insidious in both groups (19/25, 76% vs. 134/209, 64.1%; P = .313). At diagnosis, older patients had lower alaninoaminotrasferase (101[433] vs. 199[441] IU/L, P < .05) but were more frequently cirrhotic (12/25, 48% vs. 57/209, 27.3%; P = .03). Importantly, similar rates of on-treatment response (16/18, 89% vs. 154/184, 84%; P = .565), corticosteroid withdrawal (10/16, 62.5% vs. 113/154, 73.4%; P = .355) and complete withdrawal of immunosuppression (1/16, 6.3% vs. 40/154, 26%; P = .122) were achieved in both groups. Treatment-related adverse events were evenly observed between groups (6/18, 33% vs. 54/184, 29%; P = .724). In treated patients, the age ≥70 y was only associated with the overall mortality (HR 8.3 [95% CI: 2.1-36.4], P = .003), but not with the liver-related mortality (HR 3.4 [95% CI: 0.4-30.0], P = .268). CONCLUSION: AIH should be seriously considered in patients ≥70 y with unexplained impaired liver function tests as the disease is not infrequent in this group and seems to bear an increased risk for advanced disease stage at diagnosis. However, if immunosuppression is started promptly, it seems as safe and effective as in younger patients.

FibroMeter scores for the assessment of liver fibrosis in patients with autoimmune liver diseases.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: We assessed FibroMeter virus (FMvirus) and FibroMeter vibration-controlled transient elastography (FMVCTE) in 134 patients with autoimmune liver diseases [ALD, autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and primary biliary cholangitis (PBC)], in order to assess new potential non-invasive biomarkers of liver fibrosis in patients with ALD, as similar data are missing. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The following groups were included: group 1: n = 78 AIH; group 2: n = 56 PBC. FMvirus and FMVCTE were determined in all 134 patients who underwent liver biopsy and TE the same day with sera collection. In addition, APRI and FIB-4 scores were calculated. RESULTS: The AUCs for TE and FMVCTE were significantly better (0.809; p < 0.001 and 0.772; p = 0.001, respectively for AIH and 0.997; p < 0.001 and 1; p < 0.001, for PBC) than the other three markers in predicting ≥ F3 fibrosis irrespective of the biochemical activity. FMVCTE and TE had good diagnostic accuracy (75.6% and 73%, respectively) for predicting severe fibrosis in AIH and performed even better in PBC (94.6% and 96.4%, respectively). The cut-offs of TE and FMVCTE had the best sensitivity and specificity in predicting ≥ F3 fibrosis in both AIH and PBC. CONCLUSIONS: FMVCTE seems to detect severe fibrosis equally to TE in patients with ALD but with better specificity. Biochemical disease activity did not seem to affect their diagnostic accuracy in ALD and therefore, could be helpful for the assessment of fibrosis, especially if they are performed sequentially (first TE with the best sensitivity and then FMVCTE with the best specificity).

Similar risk of hepatocellular carcinoma during long-term entecavir or tenofovir therapy in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A recent study in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reported that the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was lower in patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) than entecavir (ETV), but this finding remains controversial. We aimed to identify any differences in HCC incidence, or other patient outcomes, between patients receiving TDF or ETV in the well monitored, multicenter European PAGE-B cohort. METHODS: We included 1,935 Caucasians with CHB, with or without compensated cirrhosis, treated with ETV (n = 772) or TDF (n = 1,163) monotherapy. Mean follow-up was 7.1 ± 3.0 years from ETV/TDF onset. RESULTS: The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 5.4% in ETV- and 6.0% in TDF-treated patients (log-rank, p = 0.321), with no significant difference in any patient subgroup (with or without cirrhosis, naïve or experienced to oral antiviral(s) [total, with or without cirrhosis]). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, the hazard of HCC was similar between ETV- and TDF-treated patients after adjustment for several HCC risk factors. ETV- and TDF-treated patients had similar rates of on-therapy biochemical and virological remission, HBsAg loss, liver transplantation and/or death. Elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 (liver stiffness <12 kPa) was observed in 245/347 (70.6%) patients with pretreatment cirrhosis, being more frequent in TDF- than ETV- treated patients (73.8% vs. 61.5%, p = 0.038). CONCLUSION: In Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without cirrhosis, long-term ETV or TDF monotherapy is associated with similar HCC risk, rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death, but elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent with TDF. LAY SUMMARY: In a large cohort of Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) monotherapy, cumulative rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ (up to 12 years). Nor did rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death. However, elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent in TDF- than ETV-treated patients with pretreatment cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma prediction beyond year 5 of oral therapy in a large cohort of Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may develop in patients with chronic hepatitis (CHB) even after 5 years of oral therapy and cannot be easily predicted. We assessed predictors of HCC development and the need for HCC surveillance in this setting. METHODS: Of 1,951 adult Caucasians with CHB included in the PAGE-B cohort, 1,427 (73%) had completed >5 years of follow-up under therapy without developing HCC by year 5. Median follow-up was 8.4 years from treatment onset. Points-based risk scores were developed to predict HCC risk after year 5. RESULTS: In years 5-12, HCC was diagnosed in 33/1,427 (2.3%) patients with cumulative incidences of 2.4%, 3.2% and 3.8% at 8, 10 and 12 years, respectively. Older age or age >50 years, baseline cirrhosis and liver stiffness (LSM) ≥12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with increased HCC risk. The HCC incidence was lower in non-cirrhotics than cirrhotics at baseline with year-5 LSM <12; among cirrhotics at baseline, it was lower in those with year-5 LSM <12 than ≥12 kPa. CAGE-B score was based on age at year 5 and baseline cirrhosis in relation to LSM at year 5 and SAGE-B score was based only on age and LSM at year 5 (c-index = 0.809-0.814, 0.805-0.806 after bootstrap validation). Both scores offered 100% negative predictive values for HCC development in their low risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: In Caucasians with CHB, the HCC risk after the first 5 years of antiviral therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and LSM at year 5. CAGE-B and particularly SAGE-B represent simple and reliable risk scores for HCC prediction and surveillance beyond year 5 of therapy. LAY SUMMARY: In Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after the first 5 years of entecavir or tenofovir therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and liver stiffness at year 5, which can provide simple and reliable risk scores for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction and surveillance beyond year 5. In patients with cirrhosis at baseline, liver stiffness <12 kPa at year 5 is associated with lower HCC risk, but surveillance may be still required.

Factors Associated With Progression and Outcomes of Early Stage Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients usually receive a diagnosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) at an early stage, based on biochemical analyses. We investigated the proportion of patients who progress to moderate or advanced PBC and factors associated with progression and patient survival. METHODS: We obtained data from 1615 patients (mean age, 55.4 y) with early stage PBC (based on their normal levels of albumin and bilirubin), collected at the time of initial evaluation or treatment, from the Global PBC Study Group database (comprising patients at 19 liver centers in North American and European countries). We collected data from health care evaluations on progression to moderate PBC (abnormal level of bilirubin or albumin) or advanced-stage PBC (abnormal level of both). The median follow-up time was 7.9 years. The composite end point was decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or death. RESULTS: Of the 1615 patients identified with early stage PBC, 904 developed moderate PBC and 201 developed advanced disease over the study period. The proportions of patients who transitioned to moderate PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 12.9%, 30.2%, and 45.8%. The proportions of these patients who then transitioned to advanced PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years later were 3.4%, 12.5%, and 16.0%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 236 patients had a clinical event. The proportions of patients with moderate PBC and event-free survival were 97.9%, 95.1%, and 91.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and the proportions of patients with advanced PBC and event-free survival were 90.6%, 71.2%, and 58.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years later, respectively. Variables associated with transition from early to moderate PBC included baseline levels of bilirubin, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase; aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio; platelet count; and treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid. Transitions from early to moderate PBC and from moderate to advanced PBC were associated with higher probabilities of a clinical event (time-dependent hazard ratios, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.0-4.5; and 4.6; 95% CI, 3.5-6.2). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of patients with early stage PBC progress to a more severe stage within 5 years. Progression is associated with an increased risk of a clinical event, so surveillance is important for patients with early stage PBC.

Goals of Treatment for Improved Survival in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Treatment Target Should Be Bilirubin Within the Normal Range and Normalization of Alkaline Phosphatase.

INTRODUCTION: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) are widely established as independent predictors of prognosis. Current treatment goals do not aim for normalization of surrogate markers because their association with survival has not been defined. METHODS: The patient cohort from the GLOBAL PBC Study Group was used, comprising of long-term follow-up data from European and North American centers. Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated and untreated patients with bilirubin levels ≤1 × upper limit of normal (ULN) at baseline or 1 year were included. The association of normal ALP with transplant-free survival was assessed in a subgroup with ALP ≤1.67 × ULN at 1 year. Optimal thresholds of bilirubin and ALP to predict liver transplantation (LT) or death were evaluated. RESULTS: There were 2,281 patients included in the time zero cohort and 2,555 patients in the 1-year cohort. The bilirubin threshold with the highest ability to predict LT or death at 1 year was 0.6 × ULN (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.69-2.66, P < 0.001). The 10-year survival rates of patients with bilirubin ≤0.6 × ULN and >0.6 × ULN were 91.3% and 79.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). The risk for LT or death was stable below the bilirubin levels of 0.6 × ULN, yet increased beyond this threshold. Ursodeoxycholic acid-induced reduction in bilirubin below this threshold was associated with an 11% improvement in 10-year survival. Furthermore, ALP normalization was optimal, with 10-year survival rates of 93.2% in patients with ALP ≤ 1 × ULN and 86.1% in those with ALP 1.0-1.67 × ULN. DISCUSSION: Attaining bilirubin levels ≤0.6 × ULN or normal ALP are associated with the lowest risk for LT or death in patients with PBC. This has important implications for treatment targets.