Predictors of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism or Arterial Thrombotic Events during and after Anticoagulation for a First Venous Thromboembolism.

After first episodes of venous thromboembolism (VTE), patients are at increased risk of recurrent VTE and arterial thrombotic events (ATE) compared with the general population, two disorders that are influenced by anticoagulation. However, risk factors of these conditions occurring during and after anticoagulation are little described. Using cause-specific hazard regression models, we aimed to determine risk factors of the composite outcome recurrent VTE/ATE, and separately recurrent VTE or ATE, during and after anticoagulation in patients with first episodes of VTE from a prospective cohort. Hazard ratios (HRs) are given with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 2,011 patients treated for at least 3 months were included. A total of 647 patients had recurrent VTE/ATE (incidence: 4.69% per patient-years) during overall follow-up (median: 92 months). Of these events, 173 occurred during anticoagulation (incidence: 3.67% per patient-years). Among patients free of events at the end of anticoagulation, 801 had a post-anticoagulation follow-up ≥3 months; and 95 had recurrent VTE/ATE (incidence: 1.27% per patient-years). After adjustment for confounders, cancer-associated VTE (HR: 2.64, 95% CI: 1.70-4.11) and unprovoked VTE (HR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.35-2.81) were the identified risk factors of recurrent VTE/ATE during anticoagulation (vs. transient risk factor-related VTE). Risk factors of recurrent VTE/ATE after anticoagulation included 50 to 65 years of age (vs. < 50, HR: 1.99, 95% CI: 1.04-3.81), older than 65 years (vs. < 50, HR: 5.28, 95% CI: 3.03-9.21), and unprovoked VTE (vs. transient risk factor-related VTE, HR: 2.06, 95% CI: 1.27-3.34). Cancer-associated VTE and unprovoked VTE are the main risk factors of recurrent VTE/ATE during anticoagulation, while older age and unprovoked VTE mainly predict the risk of these events after anticoagulation.

Risk stratification for predicting recurrent venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of anticoagulation: a post hoc analysis of a French prospective multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to validate and to refine current recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk classification. METHODS: We performed a post hoc analysis of a multicentre cohort including 1881 patients with a first symptomatic VTE prospectively followed after anticoagulation discontinuation. The primary objective was to validate the International Society of Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) risk classification in predicting recurrence risk. The secondary objective was to evaluate a refined ISTH classification based on the recurrence risk estimate for each individual risk factor. RESULTS: During a 4.8-year median follow-up after anticoagulation discontinuation, symptomatic recurrent VTE occurred in 230 patients (12.2%). Based on the ISTH classification, patients with unprovoked VTE or VTE with minor or major persistent risk factors had a 2-fold increased recurrence risk compared with those with VTE and major transient risk factors. Recurrence risk was not increased in patients with minor transient factors (hazard ratio (HR) 1.31, 95% CI 0.84-2.06). Individual risk factors analysis identified hormone-related VTE (pregnancy: HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.08-0.82; oestrogens: HR 0.25, 95% CI 0.14-0.47) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (HR 5.84, 95% CI 1.82-18.70). After reclassification of these factors as major transient for the former and major persistent for the latter, the modified ISTH classification allowed us to accurately discriminate between patients at low risk of recurrence (i.e. with major transient risk factors) and those at high risk of recurrence (i.e. without major transient risk factors). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients who stopped anticoagulation after a first VTE, a refined ISTH classification based on recurrence risk intensity of individual factors allowed discrimination between patients at low recurrence risk, including hormonal exposure in women, and patients at high recurrence risk.

Risk Factors for Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events and Major Adverse Limb Events after Venous Thromboembolism: A Large Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: There is an increased risk of arterial events including major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and major adverse limb events (MALE) after venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, their risk factors remain little explored. METHODS: We aimed to determine the risk factors for MACE (acute coronary syndrome/stroke/cardiovascular death) and MALE (limb ischemia/critical limb ischemia/non-traumatic amputation/any limb revascularization) after VTE. Competing risk models (Fine-Gray) were used in a multicenter prospective cohort of 4,940 patients (mean age: 64.6 years and median follow-up: 64 months). RESULTS: MACE occurred in 17.3% of participants (2.35% per patient-years) and MALE in 1.7% (0.27% per patient-years). In multivariable analysis, the identified risk factors for MACE were the age of 50 to 65 years (vs. <50 years, hazard ratio [HR]: 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38-2.91), age >65 years (vs. <50 years, HR 4.85, 95% CI: 3.35-7.02), pulmonary embolism + deep vein thrombosis (DVT) (vs. isolated-DVT, HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.02-1.55), unprovoked-VTE (vs. transient risk factor associated-VTE, HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.04-1.59), current tobacco use (vs. never, HR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.07-1.98), hypertension (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.30-1.98), past history of symptomatic atherosclerosis (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.17-1.98), heart failure (HR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.21-2.42), atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.15-2.08), and vena cava filter insertion (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03-2.08). The identified risk factors for MALE were the age of 50-65 years (vs. <50 years, HR: 3.49, 95% CI: 1.26-9.65) and atrial fibrillation (HR: 2.37, 95% CI: 1.15-4.89). CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for MACE and MALE after VTE included some traditional cardiovascular risk factors, patient's comorbidities, and some characteristics of VTE.

Association between obstructive sleep apnea and venous thromboembolism recurrence: results from a French cohort.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence suggests the relationship between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and venous thromboembolism (VTE). Few studies focused on VTE recurrence risk associated with OSA after anticoagulation cessation. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, patients with documented VTE, were followed for an indefinite length of time and VTE recurrence were documented and adjudicated. The primary outcome was recurrent VTE after anticoagulation discontinuation. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality and the clinical presentation of VTE. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify risk factors for recurrence and mortality. RESULTS: Among the 2109 patients with documented VTE included, 74 patients had moderate to severe OSA diagnosis confirmed by home sleep test or polysomnography. During a median follow-up of 4.8 (interquartile range 2.5-8.0) years recurrent VTE occurred in 252 patients (9 with OSA and 243 without OSA). The recurrence risk in the univariable and multivariable analysis was not increased in patients with OSA, regardless of the time of diagnosis (before or after index VTE or pooled). VTE phenotype was significantly more often PE with or without associated deep vein thrombosis in the first event and recurrence for OSA patients compared to non-OSA patients. The risk of death was not increased in the OSA population compared to non-OSA patients in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with OSA and VTE, the risk of all-cause mortality and VTE recurrence after anticoagulation discontinuation was not increased compared to non-OSA patients.

Risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding in patients with interstitial lung disease: a cohort study.

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) encompasses various parenchymal lung disorders, which has the potential to increase the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). To evaluate, in patients with ILD and VTE, the risk of recurrent VTE during follow-up after stopping anticoagulation. This was a cohort of patients with a first VTE recruited between 1997 and 2015. The primary outcome was adjudicated fatal or nonfatal recurrent VTE after stopping anticoagulation. Main secondary outcomes were major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding under anticoagulation. Among 4314 patients with VTE, 50 had ILD diagnosed before VTE. Of these, anticoagulation was stopped in 30 patients after a median duration of 180 days and continued indefinitely in 20 patients. During a median follow-up of 27.8 months after anticoagulation discontinuation, recurrent VTE occurred in 15 on 30 patients (annual incidence of 19.2 events per 100-person-years [95%CI 12.0-29.3], case-fatality rate of 6.7% [95%CI 1.21-29.8]). The risk of recurrence was threefold higher when VTE was unprovoked and case-fatality rate of recurrence was increased by 3 when VTE index was PE. During the anticoagulant period, (median duration of 8.6 months), 6 patients had a major or clinically relevant bleeding (annual incidence of 7.3 events per 100-person-years [95%CI 3.4-15.1], case-fatality rate of 16.7% [95%CI 3.0-56.4]). In patients with ILD, the risk of recurrent VTE after stopping anticoagulation and the risk of bleeding under anticoagulation were very high. Our results suggest that anticoagulation should not be prolonged beyond 3-6 months of anticoagulation in most of cases.

Six months versus two years of oral anticoagulation after a first episode of unprovoked deep-vein thrombosis. The PADIS-DVT randomized clinical trial.

The optimal duration of anticoagulation after a first episode of unprovoked deep-vein thrombosis is uncertain. We aimed to assess the benefits and risks of an additional 18 months of treatment with warfarin versus placebo, after an initial 6 months of anticoagulation for a first unprovoked proximal deep-vein thrombosis. We conducted a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, controlled trial comparing an additional 18 months of warfarin with placebo in patients with a unprovoked proximal deep-vein thrombosis initially treated for 6 months (treatment period: 18 months; follow up after treatment period: 24 months). The primary outcome was the composite of recurrent venous thromboembolism or major bleeding at 18 months. Secondary outcomes were the composite at 42 months, as well as each component of the composite, and death unrelated to pulmonary embolism or major bleeding, at 18 and 42 months. All outcomes were centrally adjudicated. A total of 104 patients, enrolled between July 2007 and October 2013 were analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis; no patient was lost to follow-up. During the 18-month treatment period, the primary outcome occurred in none of the 50 patients in the warfarin group and in 16 out of 54 patients (cumulative risk, 29.6%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.03; 95% confidence interval: 0.01 to 0.09; P<0.001). During the entire 42-month study period, the composite outcome occurred in 14 patients (cumulative risk, 36.8%) in the warfarin group and 17 patients (cumulative risk, 31.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval: 0.35-1.46). In conclusion, after a first unprovoked proximal deep-vein thrombosis initially treated for 6 months, an additional 18 months of warfarin therapy reduced the composite of recurrent venous thrombosis and major bleeding compared to placebo. However, this benefit was not maintained after stopping anticoagulation. Clinical registration: this trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00740493.

Risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism in COPD patients: results from a prospective cohort study.

We aimed to assess the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) following cessation of anticoagulation therapy.In a prospective cohort of 1468 patients with a documented episode of VTE, followed for up to 5 years after cessation of anticoagulation therapy, the diagnosis of COPD was confirmed in 136. The main outcome was recurrent VTE. The secondary outcome was overall mortality. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the risk factors of recurrence.Of the 1468 patients included, recurrent VTE was observed in 306 (34 with COPD and 272 without) during a median follow-up period of 36.5 months. The incidence rate of recurrent VTE was 9.1% (95% CI 6.5-12.8) for COPD patients and 7.0% (95% CI 6.2-7.9) for non-COPD patients. COPD was not associated with an increased risk of VTE recurrence on univariate or multivariate analyses (hazard ratio: 1.0 (95% CI 0.7-1.4)). The risk of death, adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics, showed no increase in COPD patients, as compared to non-COPD patients.In patients with COPD who had an acute episode of VTE, the risk of recurrent VTE was not any higher than that in non-COPD patients.

Six Months vs Extended Oral Anticoagulation After a First Episode of Pulmonary Embolism: The PADIS-PE Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: The optimal duration of anticoagulation after a first episode of unprovoked pulmonary embolism is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To determine the benefits and harms of an additional 18-month treatment with warfarin vs placebo, after an initial 6-month nonrandomized treatment period on a vitamin K antagonist. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized, double-blind trial (treatment period, 18 months; median follow-up, 24 months); 371 adult patients who had experienced a first episode of symptomatic unprovoked pulmonary embolism (ie, with no major risk factor for thrombosis) and had been treated initially for 6 uninterrupted months with a vitamin K antagonist were randomized and followed up between July 2007 and September 2014 in 14 French centers. INTERVENTIONS: Warfarin or placebo for 18 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was the composite of recurrent venous thromboembolism or major bleeding at 18 months after randomization. Secondary outcomes were the composite at 42 months (treatment period plus 24-month follow-up), as well as each component of the composite, and death unrelated to pulmonary embolism or major bleeding, at 18 and 42 months. RESULTS: After randomization, 4 patients were lost to follow-up, all after month 18, and 1 withdrew due to an adverse event. During the 18-month treatment period, the primary outcome occurred in 6 of 184 patients (3.3%) in the warfarin group and in 25 of 187 (13.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.22; 95% CI, 0.09-0.55; P = .001). Recurrent venous thromboembolism occurred in 3 patients in the warfarin group and 25 patients in the placebo group (HR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.05-0.43); major bleeding occurred in 4 patients in the warfarin group and in 1 patient in the placebo group (HR, 3.96; 95% CI, 0.44 to 35.89). During the 42-month entire study period (including the study treatment and follow-up periods), the composite outcome occurred in 33 patients (20.8%) in the warfarin group and in 42 (24.0%) in the placebo group (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.47-1.18). Rates of recurrent venous thromboembolism, major bleeding, and unrelated death did not differ between groups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients with a first episode of unprovoked pulmonary embolism who received 6 months of anticoagulant treatment, an additional 18 months of treatment with warfarin reduced the composite outcome of recurrent venous thrombosis and major bleeding compared with placebo. However, benefit was not maintained after discontinuation of anticoagulation therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00740883.

Risk factors of arterial thrombotic events after unprovoked venous thromboembolism, and after cancer associated venous thromboembolism: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: The increased risk of arterial thrombotic (ATE) after VTE, particularly when they are unprovoked or cancer-associated has been established. However, the risk factors of ATE after these VTE remain unclear. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using cause-specific hazard regression models, we determined risk factors of ATE (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, acute limb ischemia, digestive tract ischemia, or renal ischemia) in 2242 patients with unprovoked VTE and in 914 patients with cancer-associated VTE from a multi-center prospective cohort. RESULTS: Of patients with unprovoked-VTE, 174 developed ATE (7.8%, incidence: 1.26 per 100 patient-years) during follow-up (median: 68 months). Among patients with cancer-associated VTE, 57 developed ATE (6.2%, incidence: 1.98 per 100 patient-years) during follow-up (median: 30 months). After multivariable analysis, the identified risk factors of ATE in patients with unprovoked-VTE were age > 65 years (vs. <50 years, HR 2.59, 95% CI: 1.56-4.29), past history of symptomatic atherosclerosis (HR 2.11, 95% CI: 1.40-3.19), and treatment with low molecule weight heparin (vs. vitamin K antagonists, HR: 2.26, 95% CI: 1.13-4.52). In patients with cancer-associated VTE, the identified risk factors of ATE were: past history of symptomatic atherosclerosis (HR: 3.13, 95% CI: 1.72-5.67), and ongoing anticoagulation at the diagnosis of VTE (HR: 2.77, 95% CI: 1.07-7.22). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of ATE after unprovoked VTE and after cancer-associated VTE, is determined by some classic cardiovascular risk factors and appears to be influenced by anticoagulant treatment introduced for VTE, as well as the presence or absence of ongoing anticoagulation at the diagnosis of VTE.

Anticoagulation for VTE: Impact on the Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: It was recently established that patients who developed VTE are at increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) compared with the general population. However, whether the anticoagulation used for VTE influences the risk of MACE remains undescribed. RESEARCH QUESTION: Does the anticoagulant treatment for VTE affect the risk of subsequent MACE? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This study included patients from a large prospective cohort who received only one family of anticoagulant treatment after the acute phase of VTE, including vitamin K antagonist (VKAs) and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). MACE included nonfatal acute coronary syndrome, nonfatal stroke, and all-cause death. The secondary outcome, MACE-2, included cardiovascular death instead of all-cause death. Cox proportional and Fine-Gray models served to study the relationship between anticoagulation characteristics and the risk of outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 3,790 patients (47.2% male; mean age, 60.48 years) were included. A total of 1,228 patients (32.4%) were treated for 0 to 3 months (median in overall population, 6 months). Compared with these patients, those treated for 3 to 12 months (hazard ratio [HR], 0.64; 95% CI, 0.54-0.76) or > 12 months (HR, 0.47, 95% CI, 0.39-0.56) had a significant reduced risk of MACE following adjustment for confounders. Findings were similar for MACE-2 (sub-HR for 3-12 months, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.47-0.79]; sub-HR > 12 months, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.39-0.68]). After adjustment for confounders, there was a reduced risk of MACE (HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.39-0.71) and MACE-2 (sub-HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.29-0.77) in patients treated with DOACs (vs VKAs). INTERPRETATION: Treatment of VTE for > 3 months is associated with a reduced risk of MACE, as is treatment with DOACs vs VKAs. These findings, which may influence the choice of anticoagulation strategies for VTE, need confirmation by randomized clinical trials.

Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Death after Venous Thromboembolism: Results from a Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular deaths (CVDTs) are more frequent in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) than in the general population; however, risk factors associated with this increased risk of CVDT in patients with VTE are not described. METHODS: To determine the risk factors of CVDT in patients with VTE from a multicenter prospective cohort study, Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard models were conducted. RESULTS: Of the 3,988 included patients, 426 (10.7%) died of CVDT during a median follow-up of 5 years. The risk factors of CVDT after multivariate analyses were: age of 50 to 65 years (vs. <50 years, hazard ratio [HR]: 3.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.67-6.62), age >65 years (vs. <50 years, HR: 7.60, 95% CI: 3.73-15.52), cancer-associated VTE (vs. transient risk factor-related VTE, HR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.15-2.61), unprovoked VTE (vs. transient risk factor-related VTE, HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.02-2.00), past tobacco use (vs. never, HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.06-1.94), current tobacco use (vs. never, HR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.15-3.01), hypertension (HR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.51-2.96), chronic heart failure (HR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.37-3.79), chronic respiratory failure (HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.02-2.89), and atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.06-2.60). The risk of CVDT was significantly reduced with direct oral anticoagulants (vs. vitamin-K antagonists) and with longer duration of treatment (>3 months). CONCLUSION: Risk factors of CVDT after VTE include some traditional cardiovascular risk factors and other risk factors that are related to characteristics of VTE, and patients' comorbidities.

Risk factors for recurrence during a pregnancy following a first venous thromboembolism: A French observational study.

BACKGROUND: Women with a previous venous thromboembolism (VTE) are at risk of recurrence during pregnancy. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the incidence rate of recurrent VTE during pregnancy, according to the period of pregnancy, and the clinical parameters associated with recurrence, in a prospective cohort of women of childbearing age after a first VTE. PATIENTS/METHODS: A total of 189 women aged 15-49 years with a first documented VTE were followed until a subsequent pregnancy of at least 20 weeks' gestation between 2000 and 2020. VTE recurrences during pregnancy were recorded, as were potential clinical risk factors for recurrence. RESULTS: Recurrent VTE occurred in six women during antepartum: five during the first trimester (incidence rate 106.4 per 1000 women-years) (95% confidence interval [CI] 46.3-226.0); none during the second trimester; and one during the third trimester (incidence rate 27.0 per 1000 women-years [95% CI 4.8-138.2]). During postpartum, recurrences occurred in 11 women (incidence rate 212.8 per 1000 women-years [95% CI 119.9-349.1]). These 17 recurrent VTEs presented as pulmonary embolism ± deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in five patients and isolated DVT in 12. Failure of thromboprophylaxis occurred in two cases (33.3%) antepartum and in 10 cases (90.9%) postpartum. In multivariable analysis, only obesity (defined on prepregnancy body mass index) was associated with recurrent VTE (odds ratio 3.34 [95% CI 1.11-10.05, p = .03]). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms a high risk of recurrent VTE postpartum, despite thromboprophylaxis, in women with a previous VTE. Only obesity was associated with VTE recurrence during pregnancy, suggesting that low-dose anticoagulation might not be appropriate in obese pregnant women.

Frequency and predictors for chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension after a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism: Results from PADIS studies.

BACKGROUND: Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) is a life-threatening complication of a pulmonary embolism (PE) whose incidence and predictors are not precisely determined. OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency and predictors for CTEPH after a first unprovoked PE. PATIENTS/METHODS: In a randomized trial comparing an additional 18-month warfarin versus placebo in patients after a first unprovoked PE initially treated with vitamin K antagonist for 6 months, we applied recommended CTEPH screening strategies through an 8-year follow-up to determine cumulative incidence of CTEPH. CTEPH predictors were estimated using Cox models. Pulmonary vascular obstruction (PVO) and systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (sPAP) at PE diagnosis and 6 months were studied by receiver operating curves analysis. All CTEPH cases and whether they were incident or prevalent were adjudicated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, nine CTEPH cases were diagnosed among 371 patients, with a cumulative incidence of 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-4.64), and of 1.31% (95% CI 0.01-2.60) after exclusion of five cases adjudicated as prevalent. At PE diagnosis, PVO > 45% and sPAP > 56 mmHg were associated with CTEPH with a hazard ratio (HR) of 33.00 (95% CI 1.64-667.00, p = .02) and 12.50 (95% CI 2.10-74.80, p < .01), respectively. Age > 65 years, lupus anticoagulant antibodies and non-O blood groups were also predictive of CTEPH. PVO > 14% and sPAP > 34 mmHg at 6 months were associated with CTEPH (HR 63.90 [95% CI 3.11-1310.00, p < .01]and HR 17.2 [95% CI 2.75-108, p < .01]). CONCLUSION: After a first unprovoked PE, CTEPH cumulative incidence was 2.8% during an 8-year follow-up. PVO and sPAP at PE diagnosis and at 6 months were the main predictors for CTEPH diagnosis.

The Impact of Pulmonary Vascular Obstruction on the Risk of Recurrence of Pulmonary Embolism: A French Prospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess whether high pulmonary vascular obstruction index (PVOI) measured at the time of pulmonary embolism (PE) diagnosis is associated with an increased risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE). STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: French prospective cohort of patients with a symptomatic episode of PE diagnosed with spiral computerized tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) or ventilation-perfusion (V/Q) lung scan and a follow-up of at least 6 months after anticoagulation discontinuation. PVOI was assessed based on the available diagnostic exam (V/Q lung scan or CTPA). All patients had standardized follow-up and independent clinicians adjudicated all deaths and recurrent VTE events. Main outcome was recurrent VTE after stopping anticoagulation. RESULTS: A total of 418 patients with PE were included. During a median follow-up period of 3.6 (1.2-6.0) years, 109 recurrences occurred. In multivariate analysis, PVOI ≥ 40% was an independent risk factor for recurrence (hazard ratio 1.77, 95% confidence interval 1.20-2.62, p < 0.01), whether PE was provoked by a major transient risk factor or not. A threshold at 41% was identified as the best value associated with the risk of recurrence 6 months after stopping anticoagulation (area under curve = 0.64). CONCLUSION: PVOI ≥ 40% at PE diagnosis was an independent risk factor for recurrence VTE. Further prospective validation studies are needed.

Long-term recurrence risk after a first venous thromboembolism in men and women under 50 years old: A French prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Data on long-term venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence risk according to gender are conflicting. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate long-term VTE recurrence risk after a first VTE in men and women under 50 years old. METHODS: Since May 2000, 875 consecutive patients (315 men, 560 women) with a first symptomatic VTE under 50 years old were enrolled in a French prospective multicentre cohort study and were followed up as long as possible. The primary outcome was symptomatic recurrent VTE during follow-up. RESULTS: At baseline, men were older and had more comorbidities than women. First VTE was mainly unprovoked in men (80.6%) and hormone-related in women (84.3%). During a median follow-up of 7.0 years (inter-quartile range, 5.0-11.0), recurrent VTE occurred in 97 men (30.8%) and in 72 women (12.9%) (annual incidence rates of recurrent VTE of 4.8% versus 1.8%-person-years, P<0.001). However, there was no difference according to gender in subgroups of patients with a first unprovoked VTE (5.8% versus 3.8%-person-years, P = 0.09). In women, duration of hormonal treatment before first VTE did not influence recurrence risk. In multivariable analysis, unprovoked VTE and family history of VTE were independently associated with recurrence (hazard ratio of 2.50 (95% confidence interval, 1.61 to 3.85) and 1.52 (1.11 to 2.09) respectively). LIMITATIONS: Number of women with unprovoked VTE was low. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with a first VTE under 50 years old, a first unprovoked episode and a family history of VTE, but not gender, were associated with a high risk of long-term recurrence.

Predictors of residual pulmonary vascular obstruction after pulmonary embolism: Results from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the prevalence of residual pulmonary vascular obstruction (RPVO) after symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) and to identify risk factors for RPVO. METHODS: On the basis of a prospective cohort of patients with a documented symptomatic venous thromboembolism, we included patients who had an acute PE and underwent a ventilation/perfusion lung scan at 3 to 24 months during the follow-up after PE. RPVO score was assessed for each patient. Initial pulmonary vascular obstruction at PE diagnosis was also assessed when available. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed with preselected data to identify predictors for persistent defect defined as RPVO ≥ 5%. RESULTS: Among the 537 included patients, 278 (51.8%) had RPVO ≥ 5%, and 191 (35.6%) had RPVO ≥ 10%. In primary multivariate analysis on overall population, age ≥ 65 years (odds ratio [OR] 2.25, 95% CI, 1.45-3.52) and chronic respiratory failure (OR 3.19, 95% CI, 1.22-10.04) were independent predictors of RPVO ≥ 5%. In secondary multivariate analysis restricted to 256 patients with available initial pulmonary vascular obstruction score at index PE (IPVO), age ≥ 65 years (OR 2.78, 95% CI, 1.41-5.53), unprovoked PE (OR 2.11, 95% CI, 1.11-4.07) and IPVO ≥ 20% (OR 2.94, 95% CI, 1.68-5.20) were found to be independent risk factors for RVPO ≥5%. CONCLUSION: In this selected population of patients with an acute PE, age ≥ 65 years, unprovoked PE and IPVO ≥ 20% at PE diagnosis appeared to be risk factors for residual pulmonary vascular obstruction measured at three to 24 months.

Evaluation of Venous Thromboembolism Recurrence Scores in an Unprovoked Pulmonary Embolism Population: A Post-hoc Analysis of the PADIS-PE trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to validate the Men Continue and HERDOO2 (HERDOO2), D-dimer, age, sex, hormonal therapy (DASH), and updated Vienna recurrent venous thromboembolism prediction models in a population composed entirely of first unprovoked pulmonary embolism, and to analyze the impact of the addition of the pulmonary vascular obstruction index (PVOI) on score accuracy. METHODS: Analyses were based on the double-blind, randomized PADIS-PE trial, which included 371 unprovoked pulmonary embolism patients initially treated for 6 months, successively randomized to receive an additional 18 months of warfarin or placebo, and subsequently followed-up for 2 years. RESULTS: The HERDOO2, DASH, and updated Vienna scores displayed C-statistics of 0.61 (95% CI 0.54-0.68), 0.60 (95% CI 0.53-0.66), and 0.58 (95% CI 0.51-0.66), respectively. Only the HERDOO2 score identified low recurrence risk patients (<3%/year) after anticoagulation was stopped. When added to either of the prediction models, PVOI measured at pulmonary embolism diagnosis, after 6 months of anticoagulation, or both, improved scores' C-statistics between +0.06 and +0.11 points and consistently led to identifying at least 50% of patients who experienced recurrence but in whom the scores would have indicated against extended anticoagulation. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism, the HERDOO2 score is able to identify patients with a low recurrence risk after treatment discontinuation. Addition of PVOI improves accuracy of all scores. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: NCT00740883.