Following the ACA Repeal-and-Replace Effort, Where Does the U.S. Stand on Insurance Coverage? Findings from the Commonwealth Fund Affordable Care Act Tracking Survey, March--June 2017.

Issue: After Congress's failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, some policy leaders are calling for bipartisan approaches to address weaknesses in the law's coverage expansions. To do this, policymakers will need data about trends in insurance coverage, reasons why people remain uninsured, and consumer perceptions of affordability. Goal: To examine U.S. trends in insurance coverage and the demographics of the remaining uninsured population, as well as affordability and satisfaction among adults with marketplace and Medicaid coverage. Methods: Analysis of the Commonwealth Fund Affordable Care Act Tracking Survey, March­June 2017 Findings and Conclusions: The uninsured rate among 19-to-64-year-old adults was 14 percent in 2017, or an estimated 27 million people, statistically unchanged from one year earlier. Uninsured rates ticked up significantly in three subgroups: 35-to-49-year-olds, adults with incomes of 400 percent of poverty or more (about $48,000 for an individual), and adults living in states that had not expanded Medicaid. Half of uninsured adults, or an estimated 13 million, are likely eligible for marketplace subsidies or the Medicaid expansion in their state. Four of 10 uninsured adults are unaware of the marketplaces. Adults in marketplace plans with incomes below 250 percent of poverty are much more likely to view their premiums as easy to afford compared with people with higher incomes. Policies to improve coverage include a federal commitment to supporting the marketplaces and the 2018 open enrollment period, expansion of Medicaid in 19 remaining states, and enhanced subsidies for people with incomes of 250 percent of poverty or more.

How Medicaid Enrollees Fare Compared with Privately Insured and Uninsured Adults: Findings from the Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Survey, 2016.

ISSUE: The number of Americans insured by Medicaid has climbed to more than 70 million, with an estimated 12 million gaining coverage under the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion. Still, some policymakers have questioned whether Medicaid coverage actually improves access to care, quality of care, or financial protection. GOALS: To compare the experiences of working-age adults who were either: covered all year by private employer or individual insurance; covered by Medicaid for the full year; or uninsured for some time during the year. METHOD: Analysis of the Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Survey, 2016. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: The level of access to health care that Medicaid coverage provides is comparable to that afforded by private insurance. Adults with Medicaid coverage reported better care experiences than those who had been uninsured during the year. Medicaid enrollees have fewer problems paying medical bills than either the privately insured or the uninsured.

How the Affordable Care Act Has Improved Americans' Ability to Buy Health Insurance on Their Own: Findings from the Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Survey, 2016.

Issue: Since 2001, long before the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Survey has examined health coverage and consumers' experiences buying insurance and using health care. Goals: To examine long-term trends and to make comparisons before and after passage of health reform. Methods: Analysis of the Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Survey, 2016. Findings and Conclusions: There have been dramatic improvements in people's ability to buy health plans on their own following the passage of the ACA. For adults with family incomes less than $48,500, uninsured rates dropped about 17 percentage points below their 2010 peak. Lower-income whites, blacks, and Latinos have experienced drops this large, though Latinos are uninsured at higher rates. Among working-age adults who had shopped for plans in the individual market and ACA marketplaces over the prior three years, the percentage who reported it was very difficult to find affordable plans fell by nearly half from 2010, prior to the ACA reforms, to 2016. Coverage gains are helping working-age Americans get the care they need: the number of adults who reported problems getting needed health care and filling prescriptions because of costs fell from a high of 80 million in 2012 to an estimated 63 million in 2016.

How the Affordable Care Act Has Helped Women Gain Insurance and Improved Their Ability to Get Health Care: Findings from the Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Survey, 2016.

ISSUE: Prior to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), one-third of women who tried to buy a health plan on their own were either turned down, charged a higher premium because of their health, or had specific health problems excluded from their plans. Beginning in 2010, ACA consumer protections, particularly coverage for preventive care screenings with no cost-sharing and a ban on plan benefit limits, improved the quality of health insurance for women. In 2014, the law's major insurance reforms helped millions of women who did not have employer insurance to gain coverage through the ACA's marketplaces or through Medicaid. GOALS: To examine the effects of ACA health reforms on women's coverage and access to care. METHOD: Analysis of the Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Surveys, 2001­2016. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: Women ages 19 to 64 who shopped for new coverage on their own found it significantly easier to find affordable plans in 2016 compared to 2010. The percentage of women who reported delaying or skipping needed care because of costs fell to an all-time low. Insured women were more likely than uninsured women to receive preventive screenings, including Pap tests and mammograms.

Insurance Coverage, Access to Care, and Medical Debt Since the ACA: a Look at California, Florida, New York, and Texas.

ISSUE: The Affordable Care Act has significantly increased health insurance coverage and access to care among U.S. adults nationwide. However, the law gives states flexibility in implementing certain provisions, leading to wide variations between states in consumers' experiences. GOAL: To examine the differences in insurance coverage, access to care, and medical bill problems in the four largest states­California, Florida, New York, and Texas­all of which have made different choices in implementing the law. METHODS: Analysis of the Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Survey, 2016. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: In 2016, uninsured rates among adults ages 19 to 64 across the four states varied from 7 percent in New York and 10 percent in California to 16 percent in Florida and 25 percent in Texas. This variation was also apparent in the proportions of residents reporting problems getting needed care because of the cost­significantly lower in California and New York than in Florida and Texas. Lower percentages of Californians and New Yorkers reported having a medical bill problem in the past 12 months or having accrued medical debt compared to Floridians and Texans. These variations might be explained by several factors: whether the state expanded Medicaid eligibility; whether it ran its own health insurance marketplace; what the uninsured rate was prior to the Affordable Care Act; differences in the cost protections provided by private health plans; and demographic differences.

The Slowdown in Employer Insurance Cost Growth: Why Many Workers Still Feel the Pinch.

Issue: Although predictions that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) would lead to reductions in employer-sponsored health coverage have not been realized, some of the law's critics maintain the ACA is nevertheless driving higher premium and deductible costs for businesses and their workers. Goal: To compare cost growth in employer-sponsored health insurance before and after 2010, when the ACA was enacted, and to compare changes in these costs relative to changes in workers' incomes. Methods: The authors analyzed federal Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data to compare cost trends over the 10-year period from 2006 to 2015. Key findings and conclusions: Compared to the five years leading up to the ACA, premium growth for single health insurance policies offered by employers slowed both in the nation overall and in 33 states and the District of Columbia. There has been a similar slowdown in growth in the amounts employees contribute to health plan costs. Yet many families feel pinched by their health care costs: despite a recent surge, income growth has not kept pace in many areas of the U.S. Employee contributions to premiums and deductibles amounted to 10.1 percent of U.S. median income in 2015, compared to 6.5 percent in 2006. These costs are higher relative to income in many southeastern and southern states, where incomes are below the national average.

Who Are the Remaining Uninsured and Why Haven't They Signed Up for Coverage?

The number of uninsured people in the United States has declined by an estimated 20 million since the Affordable Care Act went into effect in 2010. Yet, an estimated 24 million people still lack health insurance. Goal: To examine the characteristics of the remaining uninsured adults and their reasons for not enrolling in marketplace plans or Medicaid. Methods: Analysis of the Commonwealth Fund ACA Tracking Survey, February--April 2016. Key findings and conclusions: There have been notable shifts in the demographic composition of the uninsured since the law's major coverage expansions went into effect in 2014. Latinos have become a growing share of the uninsured, rising from 29 percent in 2013 to 40 percent in 2016. Whites have become a declining share, falling from half the uninsured in 2013 to 41 percent in 2016. The uninsured are very poor: 39 percent of uninsured adults have incomes below the federal poverty level, twice the rate of their overall representation in the adult population. Of uninsured adults who are aware of the marketplaces or who have tried to enroll for coverage, the majority point to affordability concerns as a reason for not signing up.

Americans' Experiences with ACA Marketplace Coverage: Affordability and Provider Network Satisfaction: Findings from the Commonwealth Fund Affordable Care Act Tracking Survey, February--April 2016.

For people with low and moderate incomes, the Affordable Care Act's tax credits have made premium costs roughly comparable to those paid by people with job-based health insurance. For those with higher incomes, the tax credits phase out, meaning that adults in marketplace plans on average have higher premium costs than those in employer plans. The law's cost-sharing reductions are reducing deductibles. Lower-income adults in marketplace plans were less likely than higher-income adults to report having deductibles of $1,000 or more. Majorities of new marketplace enrollees and those who have changed plans since they initially obtained marketplace coverage are satisfied with the doctors participating in their plans. Overall, the majority of marketplace enrollees expressed confidence in their ability to afford care if they were to become seriously ill. This issue brief explores these and other findings from the Commonwealth Fund Affordable Care Act Tracking Survey, February--April 2016.

Changes in Self-reported Insurance Coverage, Access to Care, and Health Under the Affordable Care Act.

IMPORTANCE: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) completed its second open enrollment period in February 2015. Assessing the law's effects has major policy implications. OBJECTIVES: To estimate national changes in self-reported coverage, access to care, and health during the ACA's first 2 open enrollment periods and to assess differences between low-income adults in states that expanded Medicaid and in states that did not expand Medicaid. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of the 2012-2015 Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, a daily national telephone survey. Using multivariable regression to adjust for pre-ACA trends and sociodemographics, we examined changes in outcomes for the nonelderly US adult population aged 18 through 64 years (n = 507,055) since the first open enrollment period began in October 2013. Linear regressions were used to model each outcome as a function of a linear monthly time trend and quarterly indicators. Then, pre-ACA (January 2012-September 2013) and post-ACA (January 2014-March 2015) changes for adults with incomes below 138% of the poverty level in Medicaid expansion states (n = 48,905 among 28 states and Washington, DC) vs nonexpansion states (n = 37,283 among 22 states) were compared using a differences-in-differences approach. EXPOSURES: Beginning of the ACA's first open enrollment period (October 2013). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Self-reported rates of being uninsured, lacking a personal physician, lacking easy access to medicine, inability to afford needed care, overall health status, and health-related activity limitations. RESULTS: Among the 507,055 adults in this survey, pre-ACA trends were significantly worsening for all outcomes. Compared with the pre-ACA trends, by the first quarter of 2015, the adjusted proportions who were uninsured decreased by 7.9 percentage points (95% CI, -9.1 to -6.7); who lacked a personal physician, -3.5 percentage points (95% CI, -4.8 to -2.2); who lacked easy access to medicine, -2.4 percentage points (95% CI, -3.3 to -1.5); who were unable to afford care, -5.5 percentage points (95% CI, -6.7 to -4.2); who reported fair/poor health, -3.4 percentage points (95% CI, -4.6 to -2.2); and the percentage of days with activities limited by health, -1.7 percentage points (95% CI, -2.4 to -0.9). Coverage changes were largest among minorities; for example, the decrease in the uninsured rate was larger among Latino adults (-11.9 percentage points [95% CI, -15.3 to -8.5]) than white adults (-6.1 percentage points [95% CI, -7.3 to -4.8]). Medicaid expansion was associated with significant reductions among low-income adults in the uninsured rate (differences-in-differences estimate, -5.2 percentage points [95% CI, -7.9 to -2.6]), lacking a personal physician (-1.8 percentage points [95% CI, -3.4 to -0.3]), and difficulty accessing medicine (-2.2 percentage points [95% CI, -3.8 to -0.7]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The ACA's first 2 open enrollment periods were associated with significantly improved trends in self-reported coverage, access to primary care and medications, affordability, and health. Low-income adults in states that expanded Medicaid reported significant gains in insurance coverage and access compared with adults in states that did not expand Medicaid.

Cell-cycle protein expression in a population-based study of ovarian and endometrial cancers.

Aberrant expression of cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) inhibitors is implicated in the carcinogenesis of many cancers, including ovarian and endometrial cancers. We examined associations between CDK inhibitor expression, cancer risk factors, tumor characteristics, and survival outcomes among ovarian and endometrial cancer patients enrolled in a population-based case-control study. Expression (negative vs. positive) of three CDK inhibitors (p16, p21, and p27) and ki67 was examined with immunohistochemical staining of tissue microarrays. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between biomarkers, risk factors, and tumor characteristics. Survival outcomes were only available for ovarian cancer patients and examined using Kaplan-Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards regression. Among ovarian cancer patients (n = 175), positive p21 expression was associated with endometrioid tumors (OR = 12.22, 95% CI = 1.45-102.78) and higher overall survival (log-rank p = 0.002). In Cox models adjusted for stage, grade, and histology, the association between p21 expression and overall survival was borderline significant (hazard ratio = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.42-1.05). Among endometrial cancer patients (n = 289), positive p21 expression was inversely associated with age (OR ≥ 65 years of age = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.07-0.84) and current smoking status (OR: 0.33, 95% CI 0.15, 0.72) compared to negative expression. Our study showed heterogeneity in expression of cell-cycle proteins associated with risk factors and tumor characteristics of gynecologic cancers. Future studies to assess these markers of etiological classification and behavior may be warranted.

Physical activity and sedentary behavior in relation to esophageal and gastric cancers in the NIH-AARP cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Body mass index is known to be positively associated with an increased risk of adenocarcinomas of the esophagus, yet there is there limited evidence on whether physical activity or sedentary behavior affects risk of histology- and site-specific upper gastrointestinal cancers. We used the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study to assess these exposures in relation to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA). METHODS: Self-administered questionnaires were used to elicit physical activity and sedentary behavior exposures at various age periods. Cohort members were followed via linkage to the US Postal Service National Change of Address database, the Social Security Administration Death Master File, and the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS: During 4.8 million person years, there were a total of 215 incident ESCCs, 631 EAs, 453 GCAs, and 501 GNCAs for analysis. Strenuous physical activity in the last 12 months (HR(>5 times/week vs. never)=0.58, 95%CI: 0.39, 0.88) and typical physical activity and sports during ages 15-18 years (p for trend=0.01) were each inversely associated with GNCA risk. Increased sedentary behavior was inversely associated with EA (HR(5-6 hrs/day vs. <1 hr)=0.57, 95%CI: 0.36, 0.92). There was no evidence that BMI was a confounder or effect modifier of any relationship. After adjustment for multiple testing, none of these results were deemed to be statistically significant at p<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: We find evidence for an inverse association between physical activity and GNCA risk. Associations between body mass index and adenocarcinomas of the esophagus do not appear to be related to physical activity and sedentary behavior.

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, chronic liver disease, and hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been shown to reduce chronic inflammation and risk of many cancers, but their effect on risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death due to chronic liver disease (CLD) has not been investigated. METHODS: We analyzed prospective data on 300504 men and women aged 50 to 71 years in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort and linked self-reported aspirin and nonaspirin NSAID use with registry-confirmed diagnoses of HCC (n=250) and death due to CLD (n=428, excluding HCC). We calculated hazard rate ratios (RRs) and their two-sided 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox proportional hazard regression models with adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and body mass index. All tests of statistical significance were two-sided. RESULTS: Aspirin users had statistically significant reduced risks of incidence of HCC (RR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.77) and mortality due to CLD (RR = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.67) compared to those who did not use aspirin. In contrast, users of nonaspirin NSAIDs had a reduced risk of mortality due to CLD (RR = 0.74; 95% CI= 0.61 to 0.90) but did not have lower risk of incidence of HCC (RR = 1.08; 95% CI = 0.84 to 1.39) compared to those who did not use nonaspirin NSAIDs. The risk estimates did not vary in statistical significance by frequency (monthly, weekly, daily) of aspirin use, but the reduced risk of mortality due to CLD was statistically significant only among monthly users of nonaspirin NSAIDs compared to non-users. CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin use was associated with reduced risk of developing HCC and of death due to CLD whereas nonaspirin NSAID use was only associated with reduced risk of death due to CLD.