Significant sparse polygenic risk scores across 813 traits in UK Biobank.

We present a systematic assessment of polygenic risk score (PRS) prediction across more than 1,500 traits using genetic and phenotype data in the UK Biobank. We report 813 sparse PRS models with significant (p < 2.5 x 10-5) incremental predictive performance when compared against the covariate-only model that considers age, sex, types of genotyping arrays, and the principal component loadings of genotypes. We report a significant correlation between the number of genetic variants selected in the sparse PRS model and the incremental predictive performance (Spearman's ⍴ = 0.61, p = 2.2 x 10-59 for quantitative traits, ⍴ = 0.21, p = 9.6 x 10-4 for binary traits). The sparse PRS model trained on European individuals showed limited transferability when evaluated on non-European individuals in the UK Biobank. We provide the PRS model weights on the Global Biobank Engine (https://biobankengine.stanford.edu/prs).

A modified Michaelis-Menten equation estimates growth from birth to 3 years in healthy babies in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Standard pediatric growth curves cannot be used to impute missing height or weight measurements in individual children. The Michaelis-Menten equation, used for characterizing substrate-enzyme saturation curves, has been shown to model growth in many organisms including nonhuman vertebrates. We investigated whether this equation could be used to interpolate missing growth data in children in the first three years of life and compared this interpolation to several common interpolation methods and pediatric growth models. METHODS: We developed a modified Michaelis-Menten equation and compared expected to actual growth, first in a local birth cohort (N = 97) then in a large, outpatient, pediatric sample (N = 14,695). RESULTS: The modified Michaelis-Menten equation showed excellent fit for both infant weight (median RMSE: boys: 0.22 kg [IQR:0.19; 90% < 0.43]; girls: 0.20 kg [IQR:0.17; 90% < 0.39]) and height (median RMSE: boys: 0.93 cm [IQR:0.53; 90% < 1.0]; girls: 0.91 cm [IQR:0.50;90% < 1.0]). Growth data were modeled accurately with as few as four values from routine well-baby visits in year 1 and seven values in years 1-3; birth weight or length was essential for best fit. Interpolation with this equation had comparable (for weight) or lower (for height) mean RMSE compared to the best performing alternative models. CONCLUSIONS: A modified Michaelis-Menten equation accurately describes growth in healthy babies aged 0-36 months, allowing interpolation of missing weight and height values in individual longitudinal measurement series. The growth pattern in healthy babies in resource-rich environments mirrors an enzymatic saturation curve.

Principal curve approaches for inferring 3D chromatin architecture.

Three-dimensional (3D) genome spatial organization is critical for numerous cellular processes, including transcription, while certain conformation-driven structural alterations are frequently oncogenic. Genome architecture had been notoriously difficult to elucidate, but the advent of the suite of chromatin conformation capture assays, notably Hi-C, has transformed understanding of chromatin structure and provided downstream biological insights. Although many findings have flowed from direct analysis of the pairwise proximity data produced by these assays, there is added value in generating corresponding 3D reconstructions deriving from superposing genomic features on the reconstruction. Accordingly, many methods for inferring 3D architecture from proximity data have been advanced. However, none of these approaches exploit the fact that single chromosome solutions constitute a one-dimensional (1D) curve in 3D. Rather, this aspect has either been addressed by imposition of constraints, which is both computationally burdensome and cell type specific, or ignored with contiguity imposed after the fact. Here, we target finding a 1D curve by extending principal curve methodology to the metric scaling problem. We illustrate how this approach yields a sequence of candidate solutions, indexed by an underlying smoothness or degrees-of-freedom parameter, and propose methods for selection from this sequence. We apply the methodology to Hi-C data obtained on IMR90 cells and so are positioned to evaluate reconstruction accuracy by referencing orthogonal imaging data. The results indicate the utility and reproducibility of our principal curve approach in the face of underlying structural variation.

Fast Lasso method for large-scale and ultrahigh-dimensional Cox model with applications to UK Biobank.

We develop a scalable and highly efficient algorithm to fit a Cox proportional hazard model by maximizing the $L^1$-regularized (Lasso) partial likelihood function, based on the Batch Screening Iterative Lasso (BASIL) method developed in Qian and others (2019). Our algorithm is particularly suitable for large-scale and high-dimensional data that do not fit in the memory. The output of our algorithm is the full Lasso path, the parameter estimates at all predefined regularization parameters, as well as their validation accuracy measured using the concordance index (C-index) or the validation deviance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm, we analyze a large genotype-survival time dataset across 306 disease outcomes from the UK Biobank (Sudlow and others, 2015). We provide a publicly available implementation of the proposed approach for genetics data on top of the PLINK2 package and name it snpnet-Cox.

A fast and scalable framework for large-scale and ultrahigh-dimensional sparse regression with application to the UK Biobank.

The UK Biobank is a very large, prospective population-based cohort study across the United Kingdom. It provides unprecedented opportunities for researchers to investigate the relationship between genotypic information and phenotypes of interest. Multiple regression methods, compared with genome-wide association studies (GWAS), have already been showed to greatly improve the prediction performance for a variety of phenotypes. In the high-dimensional settings, the lasso, since its first proposal in statistics, has been proved to be an effective method for simultaneous variable selection and estimation. However, the large-scale and ultrahigh dimension seen in the UK Biobank pose new challenges for applying the lasso method, as many existing algorithms and their implementations are not scalable to large applications. In this paper, we propose a computational framework called batch screening iterative lasso (BASIL) that can take advantage of any existing lasso solver and easily build a scalable solution for very large data, including those that are larger than the memory size. We introduce snpnet, an R package that implements the proposed algorithm on top of glmnet and optimizes for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) datasets. It currently supports ℓ1-penalized linear model, logistic regression, Cox model, and also extends to the elastic net with ℓ1/ℓ2 penalty. We demonstrate results on the UK Biobank dataset, where we achieve competitive predictive performance for all four phenotypes considered (height, body mass index, asthma, high cholesterol) using only a small fraction of the variants compared with other established polygenic risk score methods.

Elastic Net Regularization Paths for All Generalized Linear Models.

The lasso and elastic net are popular regularized regression models for supervised learning. Friedman, Hastie, and Tibshirani (2010) introduced a computationally efficient algorithm for computing the elastic net regularization path for ordinary least squares regression, logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression, while Simon, Friedman, Hastie, and Tibshirani (2011) extended this work to Cox models for right-censored data. We further extend the reach of the elastic net-regularized regression to all generalized linear model families, Cox models with (start, stop] data and strata, and a simplified version of the relaxed lasso. We also discuss convenient utility functions for measuring the performance of these fitted models.

Feature-weighted elastic net: using "features of features" for better prediction.

In some supervised learning settings, the practitioner might have additional information on the features used for prediction. We propose a new method which leverages this additional information for better prediction. The method, which we call the feature-weighted elastic net ("fwelnet"), uses these "features of features" to adapt the relative penalties on the feature coefficients in the elastic net penalty. In our simulations, fwelnet outperforms the lasso in terms of test mean squared error and usually gives an improvement in true positive rate or false positive rate for feature selection. We also apply this method to early prediction of preeclampsia, where fwelnet outperforms the lasso in terms of 10-fold cross-validated area under the curve (0.86 vs. 0.80). We also provide a connection between fwelnet and the group lasso and suggest how fwelnet might be used for multi-task learning.

Canonical correlation analysis in high dimensions with structured regularization.

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a technique for measuring the association between two multivariate data matrices. A regularized modification of canonical correlation analysis (RCCA) which imposes an ℓ2 penalty on the CCA coefficients is widely used in applications with high-dimensional data. One limitation of such regularization is that it ignores any data structure, treating all the features equally, which can be ill-suited for some applications. In this article we introduce several approaches to regularizing CCA that take the underlying data structure into account. In particular, the proposed group regularized canonical correlation analysis (GRCCA) is useful when the variables are correlated in groups. We illustrate some computational strategies to avoid excessive computations with regularized CCA in high dimensions. We demonstrate the application of these methods in our motivating application from neuroscience, as well as in a small simulation example.

Reorienting Latent Variable Modeling for Supervised Learning.

Despite its potentials benefits, using prediction targets generated based on latent variable (LV) modeling is not a common practice in supervised learning, a dominating framework for developing prediction models. In supervised learning, it is typically assumed that the outcome to be predicted is clear and readily available, and therefore validating outcomes before predicting them is a foreign concept and an unnecessary step. The usual goal of LV modeling is inference, and therefore using it in supervised learning and in the prediction context requires a major conceptual shift. This study lays out methodological adjustments and conceptual shifts necessary for integrating LV modeling into supervised learning. It is shown that such integration is possible by combining the traditions of LV modeling, psychometrics, and supervised learning. In this interdisciplinary learning framework, generating practical outcomes using LV modeling and systematically validating them based on clinical validators are the two main strategies. In the example using the data from the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) Study, a large pool of candidate outcomes is generated by flexible LV modeling. It is demonstrated that this exploratory situation can be used as an opportunity to tailor desirable prediction targets taking advantage of contemporary science and clinical insights.

Fast numerical optimization for genome sequencing data in population biobanks.

MOTIVATION: Large-scale and high-dimensional genome sequencing data poses computational challenges. General-purpose optimization tools are usually not optimal in terms of computational and memory performance for genetic data. RESULTS: We develop two efficient solvers for optimization problems arising from large-scale regularized regressions on millions of genetic variants sequenced from hundreds of thousands of individuals. These genetic variants are encoded by the values in the set {0,1,2,NA}. We take advantage of this fact and use two bits to represent each entry in a genetic matrix, which reduces memory requirement by a factor of 32 compared to a double precision floating point representation. Using this representation, we implemented an iteratively reweighted least square algorithm to solve Lasso regressions on genetic matrices, which we name snpnet-2.0. When the dataset contains many rare variants, the predictors can be encoded in a sparse matrix. We utilize the sparsity in the predictor matrix to further reduce memory requirement and computational speed. Our sparse genetic matrix implementation uses both the compact two-bit representation and a simplified version of compressed sparse block format so that matrix-vector multiplications can be effectively parallelized on multiple CPU cores. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this representation, we implement an accelerated proximal gradient method to solve group Lasso on these sparse genetic matrices. This solver is named sparse-snpnet, and will also be included as part of snpnet R package. Our implementation is able to solve Lasso and group Lasso, linear, logistic and Cox regression problems on sparse genetic matrices that contain 1 000 000 variants and almost 100 000 individuals within 10 min and using less than 32GB of memory. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/rivas-lab/snpnet/tree/compact.

Survival analysis on rare events using group-regularized multi-response Cox regression.

MOTIVATION: The prediction performance of Cox proportional hazard model suffers when there are only few uncensored events in the training data. RESULTS: We propose a Sparse-Group regularized Cox regression method to improve the prediction performance of large-scale and high-dimensional survival data with few observed events. Our approach is applicable when there is one or more other survival responses that 1. has a large number of observed events; 2. share a common set of associated predictors with the rare event response. This scenario is common in the UK Biobank dataset where records for a large number of common and less prevalent diseases of the same set of individuals are available. By analyzing these responses together, we hope to achieve higher prediction performance than when they are analyzed individually. To make this approach practical for large-scale data, we developed an accelerated proximal gradient optimization algorithm as well as a screening procedure inspired by Qian et al. AVAILABILITYANDIMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/rivas-lab/multisnpnet-Cox.

SURPRISES IN HIGH-DIMENSIONAL RIDGELESS LEAST SQUARES INTERPOLATION.

Interpolators-estimators that achieve zero training error-have attracted growing attention in machine learning, mainly because state-of-the art neural networks appear to be models of this type. In this paper, we study minimum ℓ 2 norm ("ridgeless") interpolation least squares regression, focusing on the high-dimensional regime in which the number of unknown parameters p is of the same order as the number of samples n. We consider two different models for the feature distribution: a linear model, where the feature vectors x i ∈ ℝ p are obtained by applying a linear transform to a vector of i.i.d. entries, x i = Σ1/2 z i (with z i ∈ ℝ p ); and a nonlinear model, where the feature vectors are obtained by passing the input through a random one-layer neural network, xi = φ(Wz i ) (with z i ∈ ℝ d , W ∈ ℝ p × d a matrix of i.i.d. entries, and φ an activation function acting componentwise on Wz i ). We recover-in a precise quantitative way-several phenomena that have been observed in large-scale neural networks and kernel machines, including the "double descent" behavior of the prediction risk, and the potential benefits of overparametrization.

Relating whole-brain functional connectivity to self-reported negative emotion in a large sample of young adults using group regularized canonical correlation analysis.

The goal of our study was to use functional connectivity to map brain function to self-reports of negative emotion. In a large dataset of healthy individuals derived from the Human Connectome Project (N = 652), first we quantified functional connectivity during a negative face-matching task to isolate patterns induced by emotional stimuli. Then, we did the same in a complementary task-free resting state condition. To identify the relationship between functional connectivity in these two conditions and self-reports of negative emotion, we introduce group regularized canonical correlation analysis (GRCCA), a novel algorithm extending canonical correlations analysis to model the shared common properties of functional connectivity within established brain networks. To minimize overfitting, we optimized the regularization parameters of GRCCA using cross-validation and tested the significance of our results in a held-out portion of the data set using permutations. GRCCA consistently outperformed plain regularized canonical correlation analysis. The only canonical correlation that generalized to the held-out test set was based on resting state data (r = 0.175, permutation test p = 0.021). This canonical correlation loaded primarily on Anger-aggression. It showed high loadings in the cingulate, orbitofrontal, superior parietal, auditory and visual cortices, as well as in the insula. Subcortically, we observed high loadings in the globus pallidus. Regarding brain networks, it loaded primarily on the primary visual, orbito-affective and ventral multimodal networks. Here, we present the first neuroimaging application of GRCCA, a novel algorithm for regularized canonical correlation analyses that takes into account grouping of the variables during the regularization scheme. Using GRCCA, we demonstrate that functional connections involving the visual, orbito-affective and multimodal networks are promising targets for investigating functional correlates of subjective anger and aggression. Crucially, our approach and findings also highlight the need of cross-validation, regularization and testing on held out data for correlational neuroimaging studies to avoid inflated effects.

Assessment of heterogeneous treatment effect estimation accuracy via matching.

We study the assessment of the accuracy of heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, where the HTE is not directly observable so standard computation of prediction errors is not applicable. To tackle the difficulty, we propose an assessment approach by constructing pseudo-observations of the HTE based on matching. Our contributions are three-fold: first, we introduce a novel matching distance derived from proximity scores in random forests; second, we formulate the matching problem as an average minimum-cost flow problem and provide an efficient algorithm; third, we propose a match-then-split principle for the assessment with cross-validation. We demonstrate the efficacy of the assessment approach using simulations and a real dataset.

Proteomic analysis of monolayer-integrated proteins on lipid droplets identifies amphipathic interfacial α-helical membrane anchors.

Despite not spanning phospholipid bilayers, monotopic integral proteins (MIPs) play critical roles in organizing biochemical reactions on membrane surfaces. Defining the structural basis by which these proteins are anchored to membranes has been hampered by the paucity of unambiguously identified MIPs and a lack of computational tools that accurately distinguish monolayer-integrating motifs from bilayer-spanning transmembrane domains (TMDs). We used quantitative proteomics and statistical modeling to identify 87 high-confidence candidate MIPs in lipid droplets, including 21 proteins with predicted TMDs that cannot be accommodated in these monolayer-enveloped organelles. Systematic cysteine-scanning mutagenesis showed the predicted TMD of one candidate MIP, DHRS3, to be a partially buried amphipathic α-helix in both lipid droplet monolayers and the cytoplasmic leaflet of endoplasmic reticulum membrane bilayers. Coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations support these observations, suggesting that this helix is most stable at the solvent-membrane interface. The simulations also predicted similar interfacial amphipathic helices when applied to seven additional MIPs from our dataset. Our findings suggest that interfacial helices may be a common motif by which MIPs are integrated into membranes, and provide high-throughput methods to identify and study MIPs.

The human connectome project for disordered emotional states: Protocol and rationale for a research domain criteria study of brain connectivity in young adult anxiety and depression.

Through the Human Connectome Project (HCP) our understanding of the functional connectome of the healthy brain has been dramatically accelerated. Given the pressing public health need, we must increase our understanding of how connectome dysfunctions give rise to disordered mental states. Mental disorders arising from high levels of negative emotion or from the loss of positive emotional experience affect over 400 million people globally. Such states of disordered emotion cut across multiple diagnostic categories of mood and anxiety disorders and are compounded by accompanying disruptions in cognitive function. Not surprisingly, these forms of psychopathology are the leading cause of disability worldwide. The Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) initiative spearheaded by NIMH offers a framework for characterizing the relations among connectome dysfunctions, anchored in neural circuits and phenotypic profiles of behavior and self-reported symptoms. Here, we report on our Connectomes Related to Human Disease protocol for integrating an RDoC framework with HCP protocols to characterize connectome dysfunctions in disordered emotional states, and present quality control data from a representative sample of participants. We focus on three RDoC domains and constructs most relevant to depression and anxiety: 1) loss and acute threat within the Negative Valence System (NVS) domain; 2) reward valuation and responsiveness within the Positive Valence System (PVS) domain; and 3) working memory and cognitive control within the Cognitive System (CS) domain. For 29 healthy controls, we present preliminary imaging data: functional magnetic resonance imaging collected in the resting state and in tasks matching our constructs of interest ("Emotion", "Gambling" and "Continuous Performance" tasks), as well as diffusion-weighted imaging. All functional scans demonstrated good signal-to-noise ratio. Established neural networks were robustly identified in the resting state condition by independent component analysis. Processing of negative emotional faces significantly activated the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal and occipital cortices, fusiform gyrus and amygdalae. Reward elicited a response in the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal, parietal and occipital cortices, and in the striatum. Working memory was associated with activation in the dorsolateral prefrontal, parietal, motor, temporal and insular cortices, in the striatum and cerebellum. Diffusion tractography showed consistent profiles of fractional anisotropy along known white matter tracts. We also show that results are comparable to those in a matched sample from the HCP Healthy Young Adult data release. These preliminary data provide the foundation for acquisition of 250 subjects who are experiencing disordered emotional states. When complete, these data will be used to develop a neurobiological model that maps connectome dysfunctions to specific behaviors and symptoms.

Projected geographic disparities in healthcare worker absenteeism from COVID-19 school closures and the economic feasibility of child care subsidies: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: School closures have been enacted as a measure of mitigation during the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It has been shown that school closures could cause absenteeism among healthcare workers with dependent children, but there remains a need for spatially granular analyses of the relationship between school closures and healthcare worker absenteeism to inform local community preparedness. METHODS: We provide national- and county-level simulations of school closures and unmet child care needs across the USA. We develop individual simulations using county-level demographic and occupational data, and model school closure effectiveness with age-structured compartmental models. We perform multivariate quasi-Poisson ecological regressions to find associations between unmet child care needs and COVID-19 vulnerability factors. RESULTS: At the national level, we estimate the projected rate of unmet child care needs for healthcare worker households to range from 7.4 to 8.7%, and the effectiveness of school closures as a 7.6% and 8.4% reduction in fewer hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds, respectively, at peak demand when varying across initial reproduction number estimates by state. At the county level, we find substantial variations of projected unmet child care needs and school closure effects, 9.5% (interquartile range (IQR) 8.2-10.9%) of healthcare worker households and 5.2% (IQR 4.1-6.5%) and 6.8% (IQR 4.8-8.8%) reduction in fewer hospital and ICU beds, respectively, at peak demand. We find significant positive associations between estimated levels of unmet child care needs and diabetes prevalence, county rurality, and race (p<0.05). We estimate costs of absenteeism and child care and observe from our models that an estimated 76.3 to 96.8% of counties would find it less expensive to provide child care to all healthcare workers with children than to bear the costs of healthcare worker absenteeism during school closures. CONCLUSIONS: School closures are projected to reduce peak ICU and hospital demand, but could disrupt healthcare systems through absenteeism, especially in counties that are already particularly vulnerable to COVID-19. Child care subsidies could help circumvent the ostensible trade-off between school closures and healthcare worker absenteeism.

REVEL: An Ensemble Method for Predicting the Pathogenicity of Rare Missense Variants.

The vast majority of coding variants are rare, and assessment of the contribution of rare variants to complex traits is hampered by low statistical power and limited functional data. Improved methods for predicting the pathogenicity of rare coding variants are needed to facilitate the discovery of disease variants from exome sequencing studies. We developed REVEL (rare exome variant ensemble learner), an ensemble method for predicting the pathogenicity of missense variants on the basis of individual tools: MutPred, FATHMM, VEST, PolyPhen, SIFT, PROVEAN, MutationAssessor, MutationTaster, LRT, GERP, SiPhy, phyloP, and phastCons. REVEL was trained with recently discovered pathogenic and rare neutral missense variants, excluding those previously used to train its constituent tools. When applied to two independent test sets, REVEL had the best overall performance (p < 10-12) as compared to any individual tool and seven ensemble methods: MetaSVM, MetaLR, KGGSeq, Condel, CADD, DANN, and Eigen. Importantly, REVEL also had the best performance for distinguishing pathogenic from rare neutral variants with allele frequencies <0.5%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for REVEL was 0.046-0.182 higher in an independent test set of 935 recent SwissVar disease variants and 123,935 putatively neutral exome sequencing variants and 0.027-0.143 higher in an independent test set of 1,953 pathogenic and 2,406 benign variants recently reported in ClinVar than the AUCs for other ensemble methods. We provide pre-computed REVEL scores for all possible human missense variants to facilitate the identification of pathogenic variants in the sea of rare variants discovered as sequencing studies expand in scale.

Human amygdala engagement moderated by early life stress exposure is a biobehavioral target for predicting recovery on antidepressants.

Amygdala circuitry and early life stress (ELS) are both strongly and independently implicated in the neurobiology of depression. Importantly, animal models have revealed that the contribution of ELS to the development and maintenance of depression is likely a consequence of structural and physiological changes in amygdala circuitry in response to stress hormones. Despite these mechanistic foundations, amygdala engagement and ELS have not been investigated as biobehavioral targets for predicting functional remission in translational human studies of depression. Addressing this question, we integrated human neuroimaging and measurement of ELS within a controlled trial of antidepressant outcomes. Here we demonstrate that the interaction between amygdala activation engaged by emotional stimuli and ELS predicts functional remission on antidepressants with a greater than 80% cross-validated accuracy. Our model suggests that in depressed people with high ELS, the likelihood of remission is highest with greater amygdala reactivity to socially rewarding stimuli, whereas for those with low-ELS exposure, remission is associated with lower amygdala reactivity to both rewarding and threat-related stimuli. This full model predicted functional remission over and above the contribution of demographics, symptom severity, ELS, and amygdala reactivity alone. These findings identify a human target for elucidating the mechanisms of antidepressant functional remission and offer a target for developing novel therapeutics. The results also offer a proof-of-concept for using neuroimaging as a target for guiding neuroscience-informed intervention decisions at the level of the individual person.