A competency framework on simulation modelling-supported decision-making for Master of Public Health graduates.

BACKGROUND: Simulation models are increasingly important for supporting decision-making in public health. However, due to lack of training, many public health professionals remain unfamiliar with constructing simulation models and using their outputs for decision-making. This study contributes to filling this gap by developing a competency framework on simulation model-supported decision-making targeting Master of Public Health education. METHODS: The study combined a literature review, a two-stage online Delphi survey and an online consensus workshop. A draft competency framework was developed based on 28 peer-reviewed publications. A two-stage online Delphi survey involving 15 experts was conducted to refine the framework. Finally, an online consensus workshop, including six experts, evaluated the competency framework and discussed its implementation. RESULTS: The competency framework identified 20 competencies related to stakeholder engagement, problem definition, evidence identification, participatory system mapping, model creation and calibration and the interpretation and dissemination of model results. The expert evaluation recommended differentiating professional profiles and levels of expertise and synergizing with existing course contents to support its implementation. CONCLUSIONS: The competency framework developed in this study is instrumental to including simulation model-supported decision-making in public health training. Future research is required to differentiate expertise levels and develop implementation strategies.

The state of health in the European Union (EU-27) in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The European Union (EU) faces many health-related challenges. Burden of diseases information and the resulting trends over time are essential for health planning. This paper reports estimates of disease burden in the EU and individual 27 EU countries in 2019, and compares them with those in 2010. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals for the whole EU and each country to evaluate age-standardised death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for Level 2 causes, as well as life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE). RESULTS: In 2019, the age-standardised death and DALY rates in the EU were 465.8 deaths and 20,251.0 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Between 2010 and 2019, there were significant decreases in age-standardised death and YLL rates across EU countries. However, YLD rates remained mainly unchanged. The largest decreases in age-standardised DALY rates were observed for "HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases" and "transport injuries" (each -19%). "Diabetes and kidney diseases" showed a significant increase for age-standardised DALY rates across the EU (3.5%). In addition, "mental disorders" showed an increasing age-standardised YLL rate (14.5%). CONCLUSIONS: There was a clear trend towards improvement in the overall health status of the EU but with differences between countries. EU health policymakers need to address the burden of diseases, paying specific attention to causes such as mental disorders. There are many opportunities for mutual learning among otherwise similar countries with different patterns of disease.

District-Level Mortality Convergence in Reunified Germany: Long-Term Trends and Contextual Determinants.

The mortality gap between former East and West Germany decreased rapidly in the decade following the reunification of the country in 1990. However, because no previous study has estimated life expectancy (e0) over time for all German districts, the extent of mortality convergence across districts and its determinants are largely unknown. We used a novel relational Bayesian model to estimate district e0 in Germany during 1997-2016, examined mortality convergence using a novel convergence groups approach, and explored the role of selected district characteristics in the process. Differences in e0 between German districts decreased for both sexes during 1997-2016, mainly driven by rapid mortality improvements in eastern German districts. However, considerable heterogeneity in district-level e0 trajectories within federal states was evident. For example, district clusters in northwestern Germany showed increasing e0 disadvantage, which led to a north-south divergence in mortality. A multinomial regression analysis showed a robust association between the e0 trajectory and the district-level tax base and long-term unemployment but not with hospital density. Thus, an equitable "leveling up" of health seems possible with policies investing in places and the people who inhabit them.

The architecture of the European Union's pandemic preparedness and response policy framework.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has highlighted the importance of preparedness and response systems when faced with a pandemic. The rapid spread of the disease throughout Europe raised questions about the capacity of the European Union (EU) and its Member States to combat serious cross-border threats to health. This article provides an overview of institutional arrangements for pandemic preparedness before the COVID-19 pandemic and outlines the changes proposed by the European Health Union (EHU) framework. METHODS: A systematic review of relevant EU law, EU policy documents and the scientific literature was conducted. EUR-lex, PubMed, Web of Science core collection and Google Scholar databases were searched for relevant records published after the year 2000. The proposed new regulatory framework was extracted from the EHU legislative package. The results were organized according to the Public Health Emergency Preparedness Logic Model. RESULTS: The main EU bodies involved in preparedness and response are the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), the European Commission and the Health Security Committee (HSC). The proposed changes of the EHU focus on strengthening the auditing capabilities of the ECDC, increasing the scope of EU action in managing medical countermeasures, and further formalizing the HSC. CONCLUSIONS: The proposal takes bold steps to address technical and political issues of preparedness and response; whereas, on the latter point, it is likely that amendments to the proposal will not address long-standing challenges in preparing for and coordinating national responses to a future EU-wide pandemic.

Digital Health Paradox: International Policy Perspectives to Address Increased Health Inequalities for People Living With Disabilities.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the uptake of digital health worldwide and highlighted many benefits of these innovations. However, it also stressed the magnitude of inequalities regarding accessing digital health. Using a scoping review, this article explores the potential benefits of digital technologies for the global population, with particular reference to people living with disabilities, using the autism community as a case study. We ultimately explore policies in Sweden, Australia, Canada, Estonia, the United Kingdom, and the United States to learn how policies can lay an inclusive foundation for digital health systems. We conclude that digital health ecosystems should be designed with health equity at the forefront to avoid deepening existing health inequalities. We call for a more sophisticated understanding of digital health literacy to better assess the readiness to adopt digital health innovations. Finally, people living with disabilities should be positioned at the center of digital health policy and innovations to ensure they are not left behind.

Mortality convergence in the enlarged European Union: a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: The high mortality rates in the European Union (EU) Member States that acceded in 2004 sparked political interest in mortality convergence. Whether mortality is converging in the EU remains unclear. We reviewed the literature on mortality convergence in the post-2004 EU territory as a whole. We also explored whether the study designs influenced the results and whether any determinants of mortality convergence had been empirically examined. METHODS: A systematic literature review was performed. Our search included scientific databases and the websites of international governmental institutions and European demographic research institutes. RESULTS: We uncovered 94 unique records and included seven studies that reported on 36 analyses. There was marked methodological heterogeneity, including in the convergence measures (beta and sigma convergence). All of the beta convergence analyses found narrowing mortality differentials, whereas most of the sigma convergence analyses found widening mortality differentials. The results are robust to the units of analysis and mortality and dispersion measures. Our results also suggest that there is a lack of evidence on the determinants of mortality convergence in the EU. CONCLUSIONS: There is general agreement that the EU regions and the Member States with high initial mortality rates improved the fastest, but this trend did not lead to overall mortality convergence in the EU. The harmonization of mortality convergence measures and research into determinants of mortality convergence are needed to support future EU cohesion policy. Policy-makers should consider supporting areas that have moderate but stagnant mortality rates, in addition to those with high mortality rates.

Autism and education-international policy in small EU states: policy mapping in Malta, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Slovenia.

BACKGROUND: Special education provides an array of support that can advantageously meet special education needs (SEN) of children with autism. This report maps autism and SEN policies, and tension of international legislation in Malta, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Slovenia. METHODS: A policy path analysis was performed using a scoping review as fundamental methodological framework. RESULTS: Education for children with SEN developed from limited education towards segregation, and further to integration, and inclusion in mainstream education. International policy has greatly influenced the education systems under study. The rights to education and to have SEN addressed have been adopted in all countries. Inclusion is seen to be gradually incorporated by Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg-closely following values of international documents through concise SEN policies. Slovenia's education system remains segregated, indicating potential tension. CONCLUSIONS: It appears that mainstream schools offer SEN services until no longer feasible for the child in the majority of investigated countries. Inclusion has become a guiding principle for most education systems under study. Finally, small states either commit to the implementation of inclusion or delay it and attempt to improve the education system for children with SEN in different ways.

Comparability in Cross-National Health Research Using Insurance Claims Data: The Cases of Germany and The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: Comparison is a key method in learning about what works in health and healthcare. We discuss the importance of comparability in cross-national health research using health insurance claims data, develop a framework to systematically asses these threats and apply it to the German (DaTraV) and Dutch (Vektis) national-level insurance claims datasets. METHODS: We propose a framework of threats to the comparability of health insurance claims databases, which includes three domains: (1) representation of populations compared, (2) data sources and data processing and (3) database contents and availability for research purposes. We apply the framework to analyze the comparability of DaTraV and Vektis databases using publicly available information (organization's websites, scientific publications) and our experiences from an interregional project on rare diseases (EMRaDi). RESULTS: Both databases were created for the same purpose (morbidity-based risk adjustment) and use the same underlying sources of data. Differences in population representation and uncertainty about data processing procedures represent potential sources of incomparability. Access for research purposes is feasible in both databases but may be subject to long processing time. CONCLUSIONS: We find important threats to the comparability of the Dutch and German national insurance claims databases and by extension to validity of any comparative health studies that rely on them. Standard adjustment techniques, making more information available about data collection and processing procedures and adding more diagnosis-related descriptors offer ways to overcome the identified threats to comparability.

The Short-Term Effects of European Integration on Mortality Convergence: A Case Study of European Union's 2004 Enlargement.

Although European integration can be expected to result in mortality convergence (reduced mortality differences), a life expectancy divide persists in the European Union (EU) between the old Member States (OMS) in the west and the new Member States (NMS) in the east. Studies investigating the impact of European integration on mortality convergence are rare and did not consider regional differences. We examine the short-term effects of the 2004 enlargement on mortality convergence at the supranational, national, and subnational levels. Using sex-specific life expectancies for 23 Member States (1990-2017) and the NUTS 2 regions in Czechia, Hungary, and Poland for 1992-2016, we examined the trend in sigma and beta mortality convergence measures at the country and regional levels using joinpoint regression. We found no compelling evidence that EU accession influenced the process of mortality convergence between OMS and NMS, or within the three NMS, over the short term. While there was overall beta and sigma convergence at the national level during 1990-2017, no regional convergence showed, and the trends in convergence did not significantly change at the time of EU accession or soon after (2004-2007). The accession in 2004 did not visibly impact the overall process of mortality convergence over the short term, likely because of the greater influence of country and region-specific policies and characteristics. The interaction of Member State and regional contexts with the mechanisms of European integration requires further study. Future enlargement procedures should emphasise tailored support to ensure more equitable gains from European integration. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-021-09596-y.

Use of artificial intelligence for public health surveillance: a case study to develop a machine Learning-algorithm to estimate the incidence of diabetes mellitus in France.

BACKGROUND: The use of machine learning techniques is increasing in healthcare which allows to estimate and predict health outcomes from large administrative data sets more efficiently. The main objective of this study was to develop a generic machine learning (ML) algorithm to estimate the incidence of diabetes based on the number of reimbursements over the last 2 years. METHODS: We selected a final data set from a population-based epidemiological cohort (i.e., CONSTANCES) linked with French National Health Database (i.e., SNDS). To develop this algorithm, we adopted a supervised ML approach. Following steps were performed: i. selection of final data set, ii. target definition, iii. Coding variables for a given window of time, iv. split final data into training and test data sets, v. variables selection, vi. training model, vii. Validation of model with test data set and viii. Selection of the model. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to select the best algorithm. RESULTS: The final data set used to develop the algorithm included 44,659 participants from CONSTANCES. Out of 3468 variables from SNDS linked to CONSTANCES cohort were coded, 23 variables were selected to train different algorithms. The final algorithm to estimate the incidence of diabetes was a Linear Discriminant Analysis model based on number of reimbursements of selected variables related to biological tests, drugs, medical acts and hospitalization without a procedure over the last 2 years. This algorithm has a sensitivity of 62%, a specificity of 67% and an accuracy of 67% [95% CI: 0.66-0.68]. CONCLUSIONS: Supervised ML is an innovative tool for the development of new methods to exploit large health administrative databases. In context of InfAct project, we have developed and applied the first time a generic ML-algorithm to estimate the incidence of diabetes for public health surveillance. The ML-algorithm we have developed, has a moderate performance. The next step is to apply this algorithm on SNDS to estimate the incidence of type 2 diabetes cases. More research is needed to apply various MLTs to estimate the incidence of various health conditions.

Inclusive education in the European Union: A fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of education policy for autism.

Children with special education needs (SEN), such as children with autism, benefit from being included in education along with typical peers. However, development and implementation of inclusive education (IE) is considered difficult. This paper identifies conditions that facilitate IE development for children with autism in the European Union and benchmarks to track IE policy development. Education policy data from 30 legislative regions in the European Union were analyzed through a qualitative comparative analysis using eight conditions: a definition of SEN, the right to education for children with SEN, support for teaching staff, support services for children with SEN, individualized learning outcomes, parental involvement, and mixed mainstream classes. The right to education for children with SEN is implemented in all regions under study. Seven of the examined conditions were associated with IE: an established definition of SEN, support for teaching staff, support services for children with SEN, individualized learning outcomes, parental involvement, IE policies, and mixed mainstream classrooms. Mixed classrooms and support services for children with SEN were identified as necessary for IE. IE policies and support for teaching staff were present in all scenarios that facilitated IE. While the analysis was initially focused on autism, the policies consisted predominantly of general SEN policies, allowing the results to be interpreted in a wider context, beyond autism. Ultimately, mixed mainstream classrooms and support services for children with special needs were found essential for consistent IE development. Support for teaching staff and IE policies facilitate IE and should be further explored and implemented.

Investigation of sirtuin 1 polymorphisms in relation to the risk of colorectal cancer by molecular subtype.

Sirtuin 1 (SIRT1), a histone deacetylase, is involved in maintenance of genetic stability, inflammation, immune response, metabolism (energy-sensing molecule) and colorectal tumorigenesis. We investigated SIRT1's specific role in colorectal tumorigenesis by studying SIRT1 polymorphisms in relation to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk by microsatellite instability (MSI) and CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) status. The Netherlands Cohort study (NLCS) was initiated in 1986 and includes 120,852 participants in a case-cohort design. CRC tumour samples were available for incident cases between 1989 and 1993. Toenail deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) was used for genotyping of two SIRT1 tagging variants (rs10997870 and rs12778366). Excluding the first 2.3 years of follow-up, subcohort members and CRC cases with no toenail DNA available and those with low sample call rates, and CRC cases with no tumour DNA available left 3478 subcohort members and 533 CRC cases. Cox regression was utilised to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for MSI and CIMP positive and negative tumours by SIRT1 genotypes. The results were that the rs12778366 TC/CC versus TT genotype was inversely associated with MSI CRC (HR = 0.41, 95% confidence interval: 0.20, 0.88), while no association was found with the risk of an MSS tumour (TC/CC versus TT carriers: HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.44). No significant associations were found between other SIRT1 genotypes and CRC subtypes. In conclusion, the results suggest a role for SIRT1 polymorphisms in colorectal tumorigenesis, particularly MSI CRC.