Symptoms of depression and risk of emergency department visits among people aged 70 years and over.

BACKGROUND: Older people experiencing depression and anxiety have higher rates of health service utilisation than others, but little is known about whether these influence their seeking of emergency care. The aim was to examine the associations between symptoms of depression and the use of emergency health care, in an Australian context, among a population of people aged 70 years and over initially free of cardiovascular disease, dementia or major physical disability. METHODS: We undertook secondary analyses of data from a large cohort of community-dwelling Australians aged [Formula: see text]70 years. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the association of symptoms of depression (measured using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale 10 question version, CESD at baseline) with subsequent episodes of emergency care, adjusting for physical and social factors of clinical interest. Marginal adjusted odds ratios were calculated from the logistic regression. RESULTS: Data were available for 10,837 Australian participants aged at least 70 years. In a follow-up assessment three years after the baseline assessment, 17.6% of people self-reported an episode of emergency care (attended an ED of called an emergency ambulance) in the last 12 months. Use of emergency healthcare was similar for men and women (17.8% vs. 17.4% p = 0.61). A score above the cut-off on the CESD at baseline was associated with greater use of emergency health care (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.11,1.64). When modelled separately, there was a greater association between a score above the cut-off on the CESD and emergency healthcare for women compared with men. CONCLUSIONS: This study is unique in demonstrating how depressive symptoms among healthy older persons are associated with subsequent increased use of emergency healthcare. Improved understanding and monitoring of mental health in primary care is essential to undertake effective healthcare planning including prevention of needing emergency care.

Infective complications in cancer patients treated with subcutaneous versus intravenous trastuzumab and rituximab: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Investigation of infection risk with subcutaneous versus intravenous trastuzumab and rituximab administration in an individual patient data (IPD) and published data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: Databases were searched to September 2021. Primary outcomes were serious and high-grade infection. Relative-risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated using random-effects models. RESULTS: IPD meta-analysis (6 RCTs, 2971 participants, 2320 infections) demonstrated higher infection incidence with subcutaneous versus intravenous administration, without reaching statistical significance (serious: 12.2% versus 9.3%, RR 1.28, 95%CI 0.93to1.77, P = 0.13; high-grade: 12.2% versus 9.9%, RR 1.32, 95%CI 0.98to1.77, P = 0.07). With exclusion of an outlying study in post-hoc analysis, increased risks were statistically significant (serious: 13.1% versus 8.4%, RR 1.53, 95%CI 1.14to2.06, P = 0.01; high-grade: 13.2% versus 9.3%, RR 1.56, 95%CI 1.16to2.11, P < 0.01). Published data meta-analysis (8 RCTs, 3745 participants, 648 infections) demonstrated higher incidence of serious (HR 1.31, 95%CI 1.02to1.68, P = 0.04) and high-grade (HR 1.52, 95%CI 1.17to1.98, P < 0.01) infection with subcutaneous versus intravenous administration. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest increased infection risk with subcutaneous versus intravenous administration, although IPD findings are sensitive to exclusion of one trial with inconsistent results and identified risk-of-bias. Ongoing trials may confirm findings. Clinical surveillance should be considered when switching to subcutaneous administration. PROSPERO registration CRD42020221866/CRD42020125376.

Impact of a non-constant baseline hazard on detection of time-dependent treatment effects: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Non-proportional hazards are common with time-to-event data but the majority of randomised clinical trials (RCTs) are designed and analysed using approaches which assume the treatment effect follows proportional hazards (PH). Recent advances in oncology treatments have identified two forms of non-PH of particular importance - a time lag until treatment becomes effective, and an early effect of treatment that ceases after a period of time. In sample size calculations for treatment effects on time-to-event outcomes where information is based on the number of events rather than the number of participants, there is crucial importance in correct specification of the baseline hazard rate amongst other considerations. Under PH, the shape of the baseline hazard has no effect on the resultant power and magnitude of treatment effects using standard analytical approaches. However, in a non-PH context the appropriateness of analytical approaches can depend on the shape of the underlying hazard. METHODS: A simulation study was undertaken to assess the impact of clinically plausible non-constant baseline hazard rates on the power, magnitude and coverage of commonly utilized regression-based measures of treatment effect and tests of survival curve difference for these two forms of non-PH used in RCTs with time-to-event outcomes. RESULTS: In the presence of even mild departures from PH, the power, average treatment effect size and coverage were adversely affected. Depending on the nature of the non-proportionality, non-constant event rates could further exacerbate or somewhat ameliorate the losses in power, treatment effect magnitude and coverage observed. No single summary measure of treatment effect was able to adequately describe the full extent of a potentially time-limited treatment benefit whilst maintaining power at nominal levels. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show the increased importance of considering plausible potentially non-constant event rates when non-proportionality of treatment effects could be anticipated. In planning clinical trials with the potential for non-PH, even modest departures from an assumed constant baseline hazard could appreciably impact the power to detect treatment effects depending on the nature of the non-PH. Comprehensive analysis plans may be required to accommodate the description of time-dependent treatment effects.

Are non-constant rates and non-proportional treatment effects accounted for in the design and analysis of randomised controlled trials? A review of current practice.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical trials with time-to-event primary outcomes are designed assuming constant event rates and proportional hazards over time. Non-constant event rates and non-proportional hazards are seen increasingly frequently in trials. The objectives of this review were firstly to identify whether non-constant event rates and time-dependent treatment effects were allowed for in sample size calculations of trials, and secondly to assess the methods used for the analysis and reporting of time-to-event outcomes including how researchers accounted for non-proportional treatment effects. METHODS: We reviewed all original reports published between January and June 2017 in four high impact medical journals for trials for which the primary outcome involved time-to-event analysis. We recorded the methods used to analyse and present the main outcomes of the trial and assessed the reporting of assumptions underlying these methods. The sample size calculation was reviewed to see if the effect of either non-constant hazard rates or anticipated non-proportionality of the treatment effect was allowed for during the trial design. RESULTS: From 446 original reports we identified 66 trials with a time-to-event primary outcome encompassing trial start dates from July 1995 to November 2014. The majority of these trials (73%) had sample size calculations that used standard formulae with a minority of trials (11%) using simulation for anticipated changing event rates and/or non-proportional hazards. Well-established analytical methods, Kaplan-Meier curves (98%), the log rank test (88%) and the Cox proportional hazards model (97%), were used almost exclusively for the main outcome. Parametric regression models were considered in 11% of the reports. Of the trials reporting inference from the Cox model, only 11% reported any results of testing the assumption of proportional hazards. CONCLUSIONS: Our review confirmed that when designing trials with time-to-event primary outcomes, methodologies assuming constant event rates and proportional hazards were predominantly used despite potential efficiencies in sample size needed or power achieved using alternative methods. The Cox proportional hazards model was used almost exclusively to present inferential results, yet testing and reporting of the pivotal assumption underpinning this estimation method was lacking.

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the elderly using the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study cohort.

AIM: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the elderly is controversial because age-related decline in kidney function may not truly reflect underlying kidney disease. We estimate the baseline prevalence and predictors of CKD using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPIeGFR ) and Berlin Initiative Study 1 (BIS1eGFR ) eGFR equations in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial cohort of healthy older participants. METHODS: GFR was estimated using CKD-EPI and BIS1 equations. CKD was defined as eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 with urine albumin creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥ 3 mg/mmol. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of CKD prevalence defined by each eGFR equation. RESULTS: Data for analysis were complete for 17,762 participants. Mean age was 75.1 years (SD 5); 56.4% were female, 76.4% had hypertension, 9% had diabetes mellitus. Mean CKD-EPIeGFR was 73.0 (SD 14.2), compared with mean BIS1eGFR of 62.7 (11.4). Median UACR was 0.8 (IQR 0.5, 1.5) mg/mmol. Prevalence of CKD by CKD-EPIeGFR was 27% (predominantly due to normoalbuminuric stage 3a CKD), substantially lower than 47.1% by BIS1eGFR ; the difference was predominantly driven by reclassification of individuals from G1 and G2 CKD to stage G3a without albuminuria. Increased prevalence of CKD by either equation was related to older age, hypertension, diabetes, or higher body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of CKD with CKD-EPIeGFR was 27%, and doubled using the elderly specific BIS1eGFR , with most participants reclassified from stage 2 to stage 3a. Increased prevalence of CKD was related older age, hypertension, diabetes, or increased body mass index.

Accuracy of PECARN, CATCH, and CHALICE head injury decision rules in children: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision rules can help to determine the need for CT imaging in children with head injuries. We aimed to validate three clinical decision rules (PECARN, CATCH, and CHALICE) in a large sample of children. METHODS: In this prospective observational study, we included children and adolescents (aged <18 years) with head injuries of any severity who presented to the emergency departments of ten Australian and New Zealand hospitals. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of PECARN (stratified into children aged <2 years and ≥2 years), CATCH, and CHALICE in predicting each rule-specific outcome measure (clinically important traumatic brain injury [TBI], need for neurological intervention, and clinically significant intracranial injury, respectively). For each calculation we used rule-specific predictor variables in populations that satisfied inclusion and exclusion criteria for each rule (validation cohort). In a secondary analysis, we compiled a comparison cohort of patients with mild head injuries (Glasgow Coma Scale score 13-15) and calculated accuracy using rule-specific predictor variables for the standardised outcome of clinically important TBI. This study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12614000463673. FINDINGS: Between April 11, 2011, and Nov 30, 2014, we analysed 20 137 children and adolescents attending with head injuries. CTs were obtained for 2106 (10%) patients, 4544 (23%) were admitted, 83 (<1%) underwent neurosurgery, and 15 (<1%) died. PECARN was applicable for 4011 (75%) of 5374 patients younger than 2 years and 11 152 (76%) of 14 763 patients aged 2 years and older. CATCH was applicable for 4957 (25%) patients and CHALICE for 20 029 (99%). The highest point validation sensitivities were shown for PECARN in children younger than 2 years (100·0%, 95% CI 90·7-100·0; 38 patients identified of 38 with outcome [38/38]) and PECARN in children 2 years and older (99·0%, 94·4-100·0; 97/98), followed by CATCH (high-risk predictors only; 95·2%; 76·2-99·9; 20/21; medium-risk and high-risk predictors 88·7%; 82·2-93·4; 125/141) and CHALICE (92·3%, 89·2-94·7; 370/401). In the comparison cohort of 18 913 patients with mild injuries, sensitivities for clinically important TBI were similar. Negative predictive values in both analyses were higher than 99% for all rules. INTERPRETATION: The sensitivities of three clinical decision rules for head injuries in children were high when used as designed. The findings are an important starting point for clinicians considering the introduction of one of the rules. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council, Emergency Medicine Foundation, Perpetual Philanthropic Services, WA Health Targeted Research Funds, Townsville Hospital Private Practice Fund, Auckland Medical Research Foundation, A + Trust.

Prevalence and determinants of antibiotic exposure in infants: A population-derived Australian birth cohort study.

AIM: The aim of this study was to describe antibiotic exposure in Australian infants during the first year of life, focusing on antibiotic class, indication, risk factors associated with exposure and comparison with international counterparts. METHODS: The Barwon Infant Study is a birth cohort study (n = 1074) with an unselected antenatal sampling frame from a large regional centre in Victoria, Australia. Longitudinal data on infection and medication were collected at 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months by parental questionnaire and from general practitioner and hospital records. Predictors of questionnaire non-completion were identified. A total of 660 infants with complete serial data were comprehensively examined. Antibiotic exposure was calculated as (i) antibiotic prescriptions and (ii) antibiotic days-exposed per person-year. RESULTS: Mean antibiotic prescription rate was 0.92 prescriptions (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.83-1.02) per person-year, with the highest rates in those aged <1 month (1.50 (95% CI, 1.09-1.91) per person-year). A total of 50.0% of infants were exposed to at least one antibiotic in their first year of life. Increasing number of siblings was associated with increased antibiotic exposure. Penicillin with extended spectrum (365 of 661 antibiotic prescriptions, 52.6%) and cephalosporins (12.0%) were the most frequently prescribed antibiotics. One fifth of antibiotics were prescribed for respiratory tract infections and bronchiolitis. CONCLUSION: Australian infants in this large population-based study are exposed to considerably more antibiotics than the majority of their international counterparts. Interventions aimed at addressing avoidable prescribing by medical practitioners and modifiable risk factors associated with antibiotic exposure may reduce antibiotic use.

Influence of weather on incidence of bronchiolitis in Australia and New Zealand.

AIM: We aimed to examine the impact of weather on hospital admissions with bronchiolitis in Australia and New Zealand. METHODS: We collected data for inpatient admissions of infants aged 2-12 months to seven hospitals in four cities in Australia and New Zealand from 2009 until 2011. Correlation of hospital admissions with minimum daily temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and rainfall was examined using linear, Poisson and negative binomial regression analyses as well as general estimated equation models. To account for possible lag between exposure to weather and admission to hospital, analyses were conducted for time lags of 0-4 weeks. RESULTS: During the study period, 3876 patients were admitted to the study hospitals. Hospital admissions showed strong seasonality with peaks in wintertime, onset in autumn and offset in spring. The onset of peak incidence was preceded by a drop in temperature. Minimum temperature was inversely correlated with hospital admissions, whereas wind speed was directly correlated. These correlations were sustained for time lags of up to 4 weeks. Standardised correlation coefficients ranged from -0.14 to -0.54 for minimum temperature and from 0.18 to 0.39 for wind speed. Relative humidity and rainfall showed no correlation with hospital admissions in our study. CONCLUSION: A decrease in temperature and increasing wind speed are associated with increasing incidence of bronchiolitis hospital admissions in Australia and New Zealand.

Nasogastric Hydration in Infants with Bronchiolitis Less Than 2 Months of Age.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nasogastric hydration can be used in infants less than 2 months of age with bronchiolitis, and characterize the adverse events profile of these infants compared with infants given intravenous (IV) fluid hydration. STUDY DESIGN: A descriptive retrospective cohort study of children with bronchiolitis under 2 months of age admitted for hydration at 3 centers over 3 bronchiolitis seasons was done. We determined type of hydration (nasogastric vs IV fluid hydration) and adverse events, intensive care unit admission, and respiratory support. RESULTS: Of 491 infants under 2 months of age admitted with bronchiolitis, 211 (43%) received nonoral hydration: 146 (69%) via nasogastric hydration and 65 (31%) via IV fluid hydration. Adverse events occurred in 27.4% (nasogastric hydration) and 23.1% (IV fluid hydration), difference of 4.3%; 95%CI (-8.2 to 16.9), P = .51. The majority of adverse events were desaturations (21.9% nasogastric hydration vs 21.5% IV fluid hydration, difference 0.4%; [-11.7 to 12.4], P = .95). There were no pulmonary aspirations in either group. Apneas and bradycardias were similar in each group. IV fluid hydration use was positively associated with intensive care unit admission (38.5% IV fluid hydration vs 19.9% nasogastric hydration; difference 18.6%, [5.1-32.1], P = .004); and use of ventilation support (27.7% IV fluid hydration vs 15.1% nasogastric hydration; difference 12.6 [0.3-23], P = .03). Fewer infants changed from nasogastric hydration to IV fluid hydration than from IV fluid hydration to nasogastric hydration (12.3% vs 47.7%; difference -35.4% [-49 to -22], P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Nasogastric hydration can be used in the majority of young infants admitted with bronchiolitis. Nasogastric hydration and IV fluid hydration had similar rates of complications.

Reproducibility of aortic intima-media thickness in infants using edge-detection software and manual caliper measurements.

BACKGROUND: Aortic intima-media thickness measured by transabdominal ultrasound (aIMT) is an intermediate phenotype of cardiovascular risk. We aimed to (1) investigate the reproducibility of aIMT in a population-derived cohort of infants; (2) establish the distribution of aIMT in early infancy; (3) compare measurement by edge-detection software to that by manual sonographic calipers; and (4) assess the effect of individual and environmental variables on image quality. METHODS: Participants were term infants recruited to a population-derived birth cohort study. Transabdominal ultrasound was performed at six weeks of age by one of two trained operators. Thirty participants had ultrasounds performed by both operators on the same day. Data were collected on environmental (infant sleeping, presence of a sibling, use of sucrose, timing during study visit) and individual (post-conception age, weight, gender) variables. Two readers assessed image quality and measured aIMT by edge-detection software and a subset by manual sonographic calipers. Measurements were repeated by the same reader and between readers to obtain intra-observer and inter-observer reliability. RESULTS: Aortic IMT was measured successfully using edge-detection in 814 infants, and 290 of these infants also had aIMT measured using manual sonographic calipers. The intra-reader intra-class correlation (ICC) (n = 20) was 0.90 (95% CI 0.76, 0.96), mean difference 1.5 µm (95% LOA -39, 59). The between reader ICC using edge-detection (n = 20) was 0.92 (95% CI 0.82, 0.97) mean difference 2 µm (95% LOA -45.0, 49.0) and with manual caliper measurement (n = 290) the ICC was 0.84 (95% CI 0.80, 0.87) mean difference 5 µm (95% LOA -51.8, 61.8). Edge-detection measurements were greater than those from manual sonographic calipers (mean aIMT 618 µm (50) versus mean aIMT 563 µm (49) respectively; p < 0.001, mean difference 44 µm, 95% LOA -54, 142). With the exception of infant crying (p = 0.001), no associations were observed between individual and environmental variables and image quality. CONCLUSION: In a population-derived cohort of term infants, aIMT measurement has a high level of intra and inter-reader reproducibility. Measurement of aIMT using edge-detection software gives higher inter-reader ICC than manual sonographic calipers. Image quality is not substantially affected by individual and environmental factors.

A prospective observational study to assess the diagnostic accuracy of clinical decision rules for children presenting to emergency departments after head injuries (protocol): the Australasian Paediatric Head Injury Rules Study (APHIRST).

BACKGROUND: Head injuries in children are responsible for a large number of emergency department visits. Failure to identify a clinically significant intracranial injury in a timely fashion may result in long term neurodisability and death. Whilst cranial computed tomography (CT) provides rapid and definitive identification of intracranial injuries, it is resource intensive and associated with radiation induced cancer. Evidence based head injury clinical decision rules have been derived to aid physicians in identifying patients at risk of having a clinically significant intracranial injury. Three rules have been identified as being of high quality and accuracy: the Canadian Assessment of Tomography for Childhood Head Injury (CATCH) from Canada, the Children's Head Injury Algorithm for the Prediction of Important Clinical Events (CHALICE) from the UK, and the prediction rule for the identification of children at very low risk of clinically important traumatic brain injury developed by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) from the USA. This study aims to prospectively validate and compare the performance accuracy of these three clinical decision rules when applied outside the derivation setting. METHODS/DESIGN: This study is a prospective observational study of children aged 0 to less than 18 years presenting to 10 emergency departments within the Paediatric Research in Emergency Departments International Collaborative (PREDICT) research network in Australia and New Zealand after head injuries of any severity. Predictor variables identified in CATCH, CHALICE and PECARN clinical decision rules will be collected. Patients will be managed as per the treating clinicians at the participating hospitals. All patients not undergoing cranial CT will receive a follow up call 14 to 90 days after the injury. Outcome data collected will include results of cranial CTs (if performed) and details of admission, intubation, neurosurgery and death. The performance accuracy of each of the rules will be assessed using rule specific outcomes and inclusion and exclusion criteria. DISCUSSION: This study will allow the simultaneous comparative application and validation of three major paediatric head injury clinical decision rules outside their derivation setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR)- ACTRN12614000463673 (registered 2 May 2014).

Geography does not limit optimal diabetes care: use of a tertiary centre model of care in an outreach service for type 1 diabetes mellitus.

AIM: Young people with type 1 diabetes mellitus living in rural and regional Australia have previously been shown to have limited access to specialised diabetes services. The Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne has been running diabetes outreach clinics to Western Victoria, Australia, for over 13 years. We aim to evaluate this service by comparing the outcomes of three outreach clinics with our urban diabetes clinic at the Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne. METHODS: We examine our tertiary, multidisciplinary team-based model of care, where visiting specialist medical staff work alongside local allied health teams. The local teams provide interim care between clinics utilising the same protocols and treatment practices as the tertiary centre. Longitudinal data encapsulating the years 2005-2010, as a cohort study with a control group, are reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 69 rural patients were compared with 1387 metropolitan patients. Metabolic control was comparable, with no difference in mean HbA1c (8.3%/67 mmol/mol for both groups). Treatment options varied slightly at diagnosis, while insulin pump usage was comparable between treatment settings (20.3% rural compared with 27.6% urban, P = 0.19). Of note was that the number of visits per year was higher in the rural group (3.3 per year rural compared with 2.7 urban, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the outreach service is able to provide a comparable level of care when the urban model is translated to a rural setting. This model may be further able to be extrapolated to other geographic areas and also other chronic health conditions of childhood.

Effect of Low-Dose Aspirin on the Course of Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Secondary Analysis of the ASPREE Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of irreversible vision loss in old age. There is no proven intervention to prevent AMD and, apart from lifestyle, nutritional, and supplement advice, there is no intervention to delay its progression. Objective: To determine the impact of long-term low-dose aspirin on the incidence and progression of AMD. Design, Setting and Participants: The Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly-AMD (ASPREE-AMD) study was an Australian-based substudy of the ASPREE trial, a multicenter, international, randomized, double-masked, placebo-clinical trial investigating the efficacy of low-dose aspirin in prolonging disability-free survival among older individuals. Retinal photography was conducted at baseline from March 2010 to January 2015, then 3 and 5 years after randomization. AMD status was determined using color retinal images and treatment records. Australian participants in ASPREE aged 70 years and older without dementia, independence-limiting physical disability, cardiovascular disease, or chronic illness limiting 5-year survival and with gradable retinal images at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from December 2022 to December 2023. Interventions: Aspirin (100 mg daily, enteric coated) or placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence of AMD and progression from early/intermediate to late AMD. Outcomes were analyzed by modified intention-to-treat analysis. Results: A total of 4993 participants were enrolled in this substudy. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. At the time of sponsor-determined trial termination, retinal follow-up data were available for 3208 participants, 3171 of whom were analyzed for AMD incidence and progression, with a median (IQR) age of 73.5 (71.5-76.4) years and even sex distribution (1619 [51%] female). Median (IQR) follow-up time was 3.1 (3.0-3.5) years. Cumulative AMD incidence was 195 of 1004 (19.4%) in the aspirin group and 187 of 979 (19.1%) in the placebo group (relative risk [RR], 1.02; 95% CI, 0.85-1.22; P = .86). Cumulative progression from early/intermediate AMD to late AMD was observed in 14 of 615 (2.3%) participants in the aspirin group and 18 of 573 (3.1%) in the placebo group (RR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.36-1.44; P = .36). Conclusions and Relevance: In this trial, low-dose aspirin administered for 3 years did not affect the incidence of AMD. The evidence was weaker for progression of AMD due to low number of progressed cases. Overall, these results do not support suggestion that low-dose daily aspirin prevents the development or progression of AMD. Trial Registration: anzctr.org Identifier: ACTRN12613000755730.

Reduced susceptibility to all neuraminidase inhibitors of influenza H1N1 viruses with haemagglutinin mutations and mutations in non-conserved residues of the neuraminidase.

OBJECTIVES: We characterized human H1N1 influenza isolate A/Hokkaido/15/02, which has haemagglutinin and neuraminidase mutations that reduce drug susceptibility to oseltamivir, zanamivir and peramivir. METHODS: One wild-type and three mutant viruses were isolated by plaque purification. Viruses were tested in MUNANA-based enzyme assays, cell culture and receptor binding assays. RESULTS: Two viruses had a neuraminidase Y155H mutation that reduced susceptibility in the enzyme inhibition assay to all inhibitors by 30-fold to >100-fold. The Y155H mutation reduced plaque size and affected the stability, Km and pH activity profile of the enzyme. In contrast to previous mutants, this neuraminidase demonstrated a slower rate of inhibitor binding in the IC50 kinetics assay. One virus had both the Y155H mutation and a haemagglutinin D225G mutation that rescued the small-plaque phenotype of the Y155H virus and affected receptor binding and drug susceptibility in cell culture and binding assays. We also isolated a third mutant virus, with both neuraminidase V114I and haemagglutinin D225N mutations, which affected susceptibility in the enzyme inhibition assay and receptor binding, respectively, but to lesser extents than the Y155H and D225G mutations. CONCLUSIONS: Neither Y155 nor V114 is conserved across neuraminidase subtypes. Furthermore, Y155 is not conserved even among avian and swine N1 viruses. Structurally, both residues reside far from the neuraminidase active site. D225 forms part of the receptor binding site of the haemagglutinin. We believe this is the first demonstration of a specific haemagglutinin mutation correlating with reduced drug susceptibility in plaque assays in both Madin Darby Canine Kidney and SIAT cells.

The impact of complementary and alternative medicine on hip development in children with cerebral palsy.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) approaches on long-term surgical requirements, and clinical and radiographic outcomes for children with cerebral palsy and hip displacement. METHOD: Twenty-three children with cerebral palsy and early hip displacement who were offered preventive hip surgery and whose parents declined in favour of CAM approaches were followed (13 males, 10 females; mean age 13 y 9 mo [SD 3 y 1 mo]; mean length of follow-up 10 y 2 mo [SD 2 y 11 mo]; 17 with spastic quadriplegia, two with spastic triplegia, and four with spastic diplegia; three with gross motor function classified at Gross Motor Function Classification System [GMFCS] level II, four at level III, six at level IV, and 10 at level V). Principal outcome measures were progression of hip displacement (measured by migration percentage: the percentage of the femoral head sitting outside of the acetabulum), eventual need for reconstructive or salvage surgery, and long-term hip morphology (classified by the Melbourne Cerebral Palsy Hip Classification Scale). The results were compared with a previously reported cohort of 46 children who had surgery when recommended (31 males, 15 females; mean age 13 y 11 mo [SD 1 y 6 mo]; mean length of follow-up 10 y 10 mo; 10 with diplegia and 36 with quadriplegia; three at GMFCS level II, 11 at level III, 20 at level IV, and 12 at level V). RESULTS: Outcomes for 23 children who had pursued CAM were analysed (mean length of follow-up 10 y 2 mo). Hip displacement progressed in one or both hips in all non-ambulant children (GMFCS level IV or V). Of the 20 children with documented progressive hip displacement, eight developed pain and deformity requiring salvage surgery. An additional 11 children with progressive hip displacement had late reconstructive surgery when symptoms first started. There was strong evidence of a relationship between GMFCS and both progressive hip displacement (χ(2) =17.78; p=0.001) and final Melbourne Cerebral Palsy Hip Classification Scale grade (odds ratio 12.5; p=0.012; 95% confidence interval 1.7-90.4). There was also evidence of those children who pursued CAM requiring more complex surgery than the group who had surgery when recommended (odds ratio 2.5; p=0.002; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.5). INTERPRETATION: CAM therapy did not appear to influence the progression of hip displacement in children with cerebral palsy. Most children required major reconstructive surgery or salvage surgery despite pursuing CAM.

Applicability of the CATCH, CHALICE and PECARN paediatric head injury clinical decision rules: pilot data from a single Australian centre.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision rules (CDRs) for paediatric head injury (HI) exist to identify children at risk of traumatic brain injury. Those of the highest quality are the Canadian assessment of tomography for childhood head injury (CATCH), Children's head injury algorithm for the prediction of important clinical events (CHALICE) and Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) CDRs. They target different cohorts of children with HI and have not been compared in the same setting. We set out to quantify the proportion of children with HI to which each CDR was applicable. METHODS: Consecutive children presenting to an Australian paediatric Emergency Department with HIs were enrolled. Published inclusion/exclusion criteria and predictor variables from the CDRs were collected prospectively. Using these we determined the frequency with which each CDR was applicable. RESULTS: 1012 patients (69.9%) were enrolled with 949 available for analysis. Mean age was 6.8 years (21% <2 years). 95% had initial Glasgow Coma Scale 15. CT rate was 12.8% and neurosurgery rate was 0.7%. No CDR was applicable to all patients. CHALICE was applicable to the most (97%, 95% CI 96% to 98%) and CATCH to the fewest (26%, 95% CI 24% to 29%). PECARN was applicable to 76% (95% CI 70% to 82%) aged <2 years, and 74% (95% CI 71% to 77%) aged 2-<18 years. CONCLUSIONS: Each CDR is applicable to a different proportion of children with HI. This makes a direct comparison of the CDRs difficult. Prior to selection of any for implementation they should undergo validation outside the derivation setting coupled with an analysis of their performance accuracy, usability and cost effectiveness.

Examining evidence of time-dependent treatment effects: an illustration using regression methods.

BACKGROUND: For the design and analysis of clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes, the Cox proportional hazards model and the logrank test have been the cornerstone methods for many decades. Increasingly, the key assumption of proportionality-or time-fixed effects-that underpins these methods has been called into question. The availability of novel therapies with new mechanisms of action and clinical trials of longer duration mean that non-proportional hazards are now more frequently encountered. METHODS: We compared several regression-based methods to model time-dependent treatment effects. For illustration purposes, we used selected endpoints from a large, community-based clinical trial of low dose daily aspirin in older persons. Relative and absolute estimands were defined, and analyses were conducted in all participants. Additional exploratory analyses were undertaken by selected subgroups of interest using interaction terms in the regression models. DISCUSSION: In the trial with median 4.7 years follow-up, we found evidence for non-proportionality and a time-dependent treatment effect of aspirin on cancer mortality not previously reported in trial findings. We also found some evidence of time-dependence to an aspirin by age interaction for major adverse cardiovascular events. For other endpoints, time-fixed treatment effect estimates were confirmed as appropriate. CONCLUSIONS: The consideration of treatment effects using both absolute and relative estimands enhanced clinical insights into potential dynamic treatment effects. We recommend these analytical approaches as an adjunct to primary analyses to fully explore findings from clinical trials.

Odds of culpability associated with use of impairing drugs in injured drivers in Victoria, Australia.

Culpability analysis was conducted on 5000 drivers injured as a result of a vehicular collision and in whom comprehensive toxicology testing in blood was conducted. The sample included 1000 drivers for each of 5 years from approximately 5000-6000 drivers injured and taken to hospital in the State of Victoria. Logistic regression was used to investigate differences in the odds of culpability associated with alcohol and drug use and other selected crash attributes using the drug-free driver as the reference group. Adjusted odds ratios were obtained from multivariable logistic regression models in which other potentially explanatory driver and crash attributes were included. Drivers with alcohol present showed large increases in the odds of culpability similar to that seen in other studies investigating associations between blood alcohol concentration and crash risk. Methylamphetamine also showed a large increase in the odds of culpability (OR 19) compared to the reference group at both below and above 0.1 mg/L, whereas those drivers with Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) present showed only modest increase in odds when all concentrations were assessed (OR 1.9, 95 %CI 1.2-3.1). Benzodiazepines in drivers also gave an increase in odds (3.2, 95 %CI 1.6-6.1), but not other medicinal drugs such as antidepressants, antipsychotics and opioids. Drivers that had combinations of impairing drugs generally gave a large increase in odds, particularly combinations of alcohol with THC or benzodiazepines, and those drivers using both THC and methamphetamine.