Quantifying Patient Risk Threshold in Managing Pancreatic Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to better understand patients' treatment preferences and quantify the level of cancer risk at which treatment preferences change (risk threshold) to inform better counseling of patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The complexity of IPMN management provides an opportunity to align treatment with individual preference. METHODS: We surveyed a sample of healthy volunteers simulating a common scenario: undergoing an imaging study that incidentally identifies an IPMN. In the scenario, the estimated risk of cancer in the IPMN was 5%. Patients were asked their treatment preference (surgery or surveillance), to quantify the level of cancer risk in the IPMN at which their treatment preference would change (i.e. risk threshold), and their level of cancer anxiety as measured on a 5-point Likert scale. We examined associations between participant characteristics, treatment preferences, and risk threshold using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: The median risk threshold among the 520 participants was 25% (IQR 2.3-50%). The risk threshold had a bimodal distribution: 40% of participants had a risk threshold between 0-10% and 47% had a risk threshold above 30%. When informed that the risk of cancer was 5%, 62% of participants (n=323) preferred surveillance, and the remaining 38% (n=197) preferred surgery. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants who expressed "worry" or "extreme worry" about the malignancy risk of IPMN had significantly lower risk thresholds than participants who were "not at all worried" (Coefficient -12, 95%CI -21 to -2, P=0.015 and Coefficient -18, 95%CI -29 to -8, P<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Participants varied in treatment preference and risk threshold of incidentally identified IPMNs. Given the uncertainty in estimating the true malignant potential of IPMNs, a better understanding of a patient's risk threshold, as influenced by patient concern about malignancy, will help inform the shared decision-making process.

Defining the Minimal and Optimal Thresholds for Lymph Node Resection and Examination for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm Derived Pancreatic Cancer: A Multicenter Retrospective Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To establish minimal and optimal lymphadenectomy thresholds for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN)-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and evaluate their prognostic value. BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend a minimum of 12-15 lymph nodes (LNs) in PDAC. This is largely based on pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN)-derived PDAC, a biologically distinct entity from IPMN-derived PDAC. METHODS: Multicenter retrospective study including consecutive patients undergoing upfront surgery for IPMN-derived PDAC was conducted. The minimum cut-off for lymphadenectomy was defined as the maximum number of LNs where a significant node positivity difference was observed. Maximally selected log-rank statistic was used to derive the optimal lymphadenectomy cut-off (maximize survival). Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to analyze overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Multivariable Cox-regression was used to determine hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS: In 341 patients with resected IPMN-derived PDAC, the minimum number of LNs needed to ensure accurate nodal staging was 10 (P=0.040), whereas ≥20 LNs was the optimal number associated with improved OS (80.3 vs. 37.2 mo, P<0.001). Optimal lymphadenectomy was associated with improved OS [HR:0.57 (95%CI 0.39-0.83)] and RFS [HR:0.70 (95%CI 0.51-0.97)] on multivariable Cox-regression. On sub-analysis the optimal lymphadenectomy cut-offs for pancreatoduodenectomy, distal pancreatectomy, and total pancreatectomy were 20 (P<0.001), 23 (P=0.160), and 25 (P=0.008). CONCLUSION: In IPMN-derived PDAC, lymphadenectomy with at least 10 lymph nodes mitigates under-staging, and at least 20 lymph nodes is associated with the improved survival. Specifically, for pancreatoduodenectomy and total pancreatectomy, 20 and 25 lymph nodes were the optimal cut-offs.

Informing Decision-making for Transected Margin Reresection in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm-derived PDAC: An International Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognostic impact of margin status in patients with resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN)-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and to inform future intraoperative decision-making on handling differing degrees of dysplasia on frozen section. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The ideal oncologic surgical outcome is a negative transection margin with normal pancreatic epithelium left behind. However, the prognostic significance of reresecting certain degrees of dysplasia or invasive cancer at the pancreatic neck margin during pancreatectomy for IPMN-derived PDAC is debatable. METHODS: Consecutive patients with resected and histologically confirmed IPMN-derived PDAC (2002-2022) from six international high-volume centers were included. The prognostic relevance of a positive resection margin (R1) and degrees of dysplasia at the pancreatic neck margin were assessed by log-rank test and multivariable Cox-regression for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). RESULTS: Overall, 832 patients with IPMN-derived PDAC were included with 322 patients (39%) having an R1-resection on final pathology. Median OS (mOS) was significantly longer in patients with an R0 status compared to those with an R1 status (65.8 vs. 26.3 mo P<0.001). Patients without dysplasia at the pancreatic neck margin had similar OS compared to those with low-grade dysplasia (mOS: 78.8 vs. 66.8 months, P=0.344). However, high-grade dysplasia (mOS: 26.1 mo, P=0.001) and invasive cancer (mOS: 25.0 mo, P<0.001) were associated with significantly worse OS compared to no or low-grade dysplasia. Patients who underwent conversion of high-risk margins (high-grade or invasive cancer) to a low-risk margin (low-grade or no dysplasia) after intraoperative frozen section had significantly superior OS compared to those with a high-risk neck margin on final pathology (mOS: 76.9 vs. 26.1 mo P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In IPMN-derived PDAC, normal epithelium or low-grade dysplasia at the neck have similar outcomes while pancreatic neck margins with high-grade dysplasia or invasive cancer are associated with poorer outcomes. Conversion of a high-risk to low-risk margin after intraoperative frozen section is associated with survival benefit and should be performed when feasible.

Total versus Partial Pancreatectomy in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer Arising from Multifocal or Diffuse Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasia - A Multicenter Observational Study.

AIM: To investigate the impact of total pancreatectomy (TP) on oncological outcomes for patients at high-risk of local recurrence or secondary progression in the remnant gland after partial pancreatectomy (PP) for IPMN-associated cancer. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Major risk factors for invasive progression in the remnant gland include multifocality, diffuse main duct dilation, and the presence of invasive cancer. In these high-risk patients, a TP may be oncologically beneficial. However, current guidelines discourage TP, especially in elderly patients. METHODS: This international multicenter study compares TP versus PP in patients with adenocarcinoma arising from multifocal or diffuse IPMN (2002-2022). Log-rank test and multivariable Cox-analysis with interaction analysis was performed to assess overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local-DFS. RESULTS: Of 359 included patients, 162 (45%) were treated with TP, whereas 197 (55%) underwent PP. Despite TP and PP having similar R0-rates (59% vs. 58%, P=0.866), patients undergoing a TP had significantly longer local-DFS compared to PP (P=0.039). However, no difference in OS was observed between the two surgical approaches (P=0.487). In a multivariable analysis, young age (optimal cut-off ≤63.6 yrs) was associated with an OS benefit derived from TP (HR:0.44, 95%CI:0.22-0.89), whereas no significant difference was observed in elderly patients (HR:1.24, 95%CI:0.92-1.67, Pinteraction=0.007). CONCLUSION: Since overall, patients with diffuse or multifocal IPMN with an invasive component do not benefit from TP in terms of OS, the indication for TP may be individualized to young patients who have sufficient life expectancy to benefit from the prevention of secondary progression or local recurrence.

Interobserver Variability in the International Study Group for Pancreas Surgery (ISGPS)-Defined Complications After Pancreatoduodenectomy: An International Cross-Sectional Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the interobserver variability for complications of pancreatoduodenectomy as defined by the International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) and others. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Good interobserver variability for the definitions of surgical complications is of major importance in comparing surgical outcomes between and within centers. However, data on interobserver variability for pancreatoduodenectomy-specific complications are lacking. METHODS: International cross-sectional multicenter study including 52 raters from 13 high-volume pancreatic centers in 8 countries on 3 continents. Per center, 4 experienced raters scored 30 randomly selected patients after pancreatoduodenectomy. In addition, all raters scored six standardized case vignettes. This variability and the 'within centers' variability were calculated for twofold scoring (no complication/grade A vs grade B/C) and threefold scoring (no complication/grade A vs grade B vs grade C) of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), post-pancreatoduodenectomy hemorrhage (PPH), chyle leak (CL), bile leak (BL), and delayed gastric emptying (DGE). Interobserver variability is presented with Gwet's AC-1 measure for agreement. RESULTS: Overall, 390 patients after pancreatoduodenectomy were included. The overall agreement rate for the standardized cases vignettes for twofold scoring was 68% (95%-CI: 55%-81%, AC1 score: moderate agreement) and for threefold scoring 55% (49%-62%, AC1 score: fair agreement). The mean 'within centers' agreement for twofold scoring was 84% (80%-87%, AC1 score; substantial agreement). CONCLUSION: The interobserver variability for the ISGPS defined complications of pancreatoduodenectomy was too high even though the 'within centers' agreement was acceptable. Since these findings will decrease the quality and validity of clinical studies, ISGPS has started efforts aimed at reducing the interobserver variability.

Poor Prognostic Factors in Long-Term Survivors of Resected Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: An International, Multicenter Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the rate of LTS in resected PDAC and determine the association between predictors of OS and LTS. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Long-term survival (>5 y, LTS) remains rare in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Multiple predictors of overall survival (OS) are known but their association with LTS remains unclear. METHODS: An international, multicenter retrospective study was conducted. Included were patients from 2012-2019 with resected PDAC. Excluded were those with metastases at diagnosis or resection, R2 resections, and 90-day mortality. Predictors of OS were identified using multivariable Cox regression and their prevalence in patients with LTS assessed. LTS was calculated by excluding patients with shorter follow-up and predictors of LTS were identified using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: 3,003 patients were included (27.4% received neoadjuvant chemotherapy). Elevated baseline CA19-9, high tumor grade, nodal disease, and perineural and lymphovascular invasion were negative independent predictors of OS, while receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy predicted improved OS (all P<0.05). LTS was observed in 220/2,436 patients (9.0%), of whom 198 (90%) harbored poor prognostic factors: elevated baseline CA19-9 (58.1%), poor tumor differentiation (51.0%), nodal disease (46.8%), and perineural invasion (76.0%). Of those without any of these four features, 50.0% achieved LTS as compared to 21.3%, 13.3%, 5.2%, and 3.5% in those with 1, 2, 3, or 4 features. CONCLUSIONS: This bi-national cohort demonstrates a true LTS rate of 9.0% in resected PDAC. Clinicians should remain aware that presence of poor prognostic factors does not preclude LTS.

Predictors for Long-Term Survival After Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Improved systemic therapy has made long term (≥ 5 years) overall survival (LTS) after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) increasingly common. However, a systematic review on predictors of LTS following resection of PDAC is lacking. METHODS: The PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases were systematically searched from inception until March 2023. Studies reporting actual survival data (based on follow-up and not survival analysis estimates) on factors associated with LTS were included. Meta-analyses were conducted by using a random effects model, and study quality was gauged by using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). RESULTS: Twenty-five studies with 27,091 patients (LTS: 2,132, non-LTS: 24,959) who underwent surgical resection for PDAC were meta-analyzed. The median proportion of LTS patients was 18.32% (IQR 12.97-21.18%) based on 20 studies. Predictors for LTS included sex, body mass index (BMI), preoperative levels of CA19-9, CEA, and albumin, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, tumor grade, AJCC stage, lymphovascular and perineural invasion, pathologic T-stage, nodal disease, metastatic disease, margin status, adjuvant therapy, vascular resection, operative time, operative blood loss, and perioperative blood transfusion. Most articles received a "good" NOS assessment, indicating an acceptable risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis pools all true follow up data in the literature to quantify associations between prognostic factors and LTS after resection of PDAC. While there appears to be evidence of a complex interplay between risk, tumor biology, patient characteristics, and management related factors, no single parameter can predict LTS after the resection of PDAC.

Preoperative Prediction of Lymph Node Metastases in Nonfunctional Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors Using a Combined CT Radiomics-Clinical Model.

BACKGROUND: PanNETs are a rare group of pancreatic tumors that display heterogeneous histopathological and clinical behavior. Nodal disease has been established as one of the strongest predictors of patient outcomes in PanNETs. Lack of accurate preoperative assessment of nodal disease is a major limitation in the management of these patients, in particular those with small (< 2 cm) low-grade tumors. The aim of the study was to evaluate the ability of radiomic features (RF) to preoperatively predict the presence of nodal disease in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs). PATIENTS AND METHODS: An institutional database was used to identify patients with nonfunctional PanNETs undergoing resection. Pancreas protocol computed tomography was obtained, manually segmented, and RF were extracted. These were analyzed using the minimum redundancy maximum relevance analysis for hierarchical feature selection. Youden index was used to identify the optimal cutoff for predicting nodal disease. A random forest prediction model was trained using RF and clinicopathological characteristics and validated internally. RESULTS: Of the 320 patients included in the study, 92 (28.8%) had nodal disease based on histopathological assessment of the surgical specimen. A radiomic signature based on ten selected RF was developed. Clinicopathological characteristics predictive of nodal disease included tumor grade and size. Upon internal validation the combined radiomics and clinical feature model demonstrated adequate performance (AUC 0.80) in identifying nodal disease. The model accurately identified nodal disease in 85% of patients with small tumors (< 2 cm). CONCLUSIONS: Non-invasive preoperative assessment of nodal disease using RF and clinicopathological characteristics is feasible.

Evaluation of AJCC Nodal Staging for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm-Derived Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) eighth edition is based on pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), a biologically distinct entity from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN)-derived pancreatic cancer. The role of nodal disease and the AJCC's prognostic utility for IPMN-derived pancreatic cancer are unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of nodal disease and the AJCC eighth-edition N-staging for IPMN-derived pancreatic cancer. METHODS: Upfront-surgery patients with IPMN-derived PDAC from four centers were stratified according to the AJCC eighth-edition N stage. Disease characteristics were compared using descriptive statistics, and both overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were evaluated using log-rank tests. Multivariable Cox regression was performed to determine the prognostic value of N stage for OS, presented as hazard ratios with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CIs). A lowest p value log-rank statistic was used to derive the optimal cutoff for node-positive disease. RESULTS: For 360 patients, advanced N stage was associated with worse T stage, grade, tubular histology, and perineural and lymphovascular invasion (all p < 0.05). The median OS was 98.3 months (95 % CI 82.8-122.0 months) for N0 disease, 27.8 months (95 % CI 24.4-41.7 months) for N1 disease, and 18.1 months (95 % CI 16.2-25.9 months) for N2 disease (p < 0.001). The AJCC N stage was validated and associated with worse OS (N1 [HR 1.64; range, 1.05-2.57], N2 [HR2.42; range, 1.48-3.96]) and RFS (N1 [HR 1.81; range, 1.23-2.68], N2 [HR 3.72; range, 2.40-5.77]). The optimal cutoff for positive nodes was five nodes. CONCLUSION: The AJCC eighth-edition N-staging is valid and prognostic for both OS and RFS in IPMN-derived PDAC.

Outcomes after distal pancreatectomy with or without splenectomy for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: international multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: International guidelines on intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) recommend a formal oncological resection including splenectomy when distal pancreatectomy is indicated. This study aimed to compare oncological and surgical outcomes after distal pancreatectomy with or without splenectomy in patients with presumed IPMN. METHODS: An international, retrospective cohort study was undertaken in 14 high-volume centres from 7 countries including consecutive patients after distal pancreatectomy for IPMN (2005-2019). Patients were divided into spleen-preserving distal pancreatectomy (SPDP) and distal pancreatectomy with splenectomy (DPS). The primary outcome was lymph node metastasis (LNM). Secondary outcomes were overall survival, duration of operation, blood loss, and secondary splenectomy. RESULTS: Overall, 700 patients were included after distal pancreatectomy for IPMN; 123 underwent SPDP (17.6%) and 577 DPS (82.4%). The rate of malignancy was 29.6% (137 patients) and the overall rate of LNM 6.7% (47 patients). Patients with preoperative suspicion of malignancy had a LNM rate of 17.2% (23 of 134) versus 4.3% (23 of 539) among patients without suspected malignancy (P < 0.001). Overall, SPDP was associated with a shorter operating time (median 180 versus 226 min; P = 0.001), less blood loss (100 versus 336 ml; P = 0.001), and shorter hospital stay (5 versus 8 days; P < 0.001). No significant difference in overall survival was observed between SPDP and DPS for IPMN after correction for prognostic factors (HR 0.50, 95% c.i. 0.22 to 1.18; P = 0.504). CONCLUSION: This international cohort study found LNM in 6.7% of patients undergoing distal pancreatectomy for IPMN. In patients without preoperative suspicion of malignancy, SPDP seemed oncologically safe and was associated with improved short-term outcomes compared with DPS.

Performance of explainable artificial intelligence in guiding the management of patients with a pancreatic cyst.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Pancreatic cyst management can be distilled into three separate pathways - discharge, monitoring or surgery- based on the risk of malignant transformation. This study compares the performance of artificial intelligence (AI) models to clinical care for this task. METHODS: Two explainable boosting machine (EBM) models were developed and evaluated using clinical features only, or clinical features and cyst fluid molecular markers (CFMM) using a publicly available dataset, consisting of 850 cases (median age 64; 65 % female) with independent training (429 cases) and holdout test cohorts (421 cases). There were 137 cysts with no malignant potential, 114 malignant cysts, and 599 IPMNs and MCNs. RESULTS: The EBM and EBM with CFMM models had higher accuracy for identifying patients requiring monitoring (0.88 and 0.82) and surgery (0.66 and 0.82) respectively compared with current clinical care (0.62 and 0.58). For discharge, the EBM with CFMM model had a higher accuracy (0.91) than either the EBM model (0.84) or current clinical care (0.86). In the cohort of patients who underwent surgical resection, use of the EBM-CFMM model would have decreased the number of unnecessary surgeries by 59 % (n = 92), increased correct surgeries by 7.5 % (n = 11), identified patients who require monitoring by 122 % (n = 76), and increased the number of patients correctly classified for discharge by 138 % (n = 18) compared to clinical care. CONCLUSIONS: EBM models had greater sensitivity and specificity for identifying the correct management compared with either clinical management or previous AI models. The model predictions are demonstrated to be interpretable by clinicians.

The impact of metastatic sites on survival Rates and predictors of extended survival in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the role of site-specific metastatic patterns over time and assess factors associated with extended survival in metastatic PDAC. Half of all patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) present with metastatic disease. The site of metastasis plays a crucial role in clinical decision making due to its prognostic value. METHODS: We examined 56,757 stage-IV PDAC patients from the National Cancer Database (2016-2019), categorizing them by metastatic site: multiple, liver, lung, brain, bone, carcinomatosis, or other. The site-specific prognostic value was assessed using log-rank tests while time-varying effects were assessed by Aalen's linear hazards model. Factors associated with extended survival (>3years) were assessed with logistic regression. RESULTS: Median overall survival (mOS) in patients with distant lymph node-only metastases (9.0 months) and lung-only metastases (8.1 months) was significantly longer than in patients with liver-only metastases (4.6 months, p < 0.001). However, after six months, the metastatic site lost prognostic value. Logistic regression identified extended survivors (3.6 %) as more likely to be younger, Hispanic, privately insured, Charlson-index <2, having received chemotherapy, or having undergone primary or distant site surgery (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: While synchronous liver metastases are associated with worse outcomes than lung-only and lymph node-only metastases, this predictive value is diminished after six months. Therefore, treatment decisions beyond this time should not primarily depend on the metastatic site. Extended survival is possible in a small subset of patients with favorable tumor biology and good conditional status, who are more likely to undergo aggressive therapies.

Uncertainty Profiles and Treatment Preferences for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.

INTRODUCTION: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are pancreatic premalignant lesions frequently detected incidentally. Choosing between surgery and surveillance for IPMNs is rooted in uncertainty. We characterized patient preferences in IPMN management, and examined associations with patients' uncertainty profiles (risk perception, risk attitude, and uncertainty tolerance). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey drawn from a national opt-in panel. We simulated an encounter following an incidental computed tomography scan finding of an IPMN with a 5% cancer risk. We elicited participants' preferred treatment (surgery versus surveillance). Participant cancer risk perception, risk attitude (risk seeking versus risk averse), and uncertainty tolerance (comfort with the unknown) were determined using validated measures. Multivariate regression models assessed for independent predictors of treatment preference and risk perception. RESULTS: The sample included 520 participants, ages 40-70, racially representative of the US population. Participants preferred surveillance (n = 331, 64%) over surgery (n = 189, 36%). Patients were significantly more likely to prefer surgery as their cancer risk perception increased (absolute difference = 12% from 1.0 standard deviation below to 1.0 standard deviation above the mean, 95% CI 3.5-20.2). Treatment preference was not significantly associated with risk attitude (P = 0.068) or uncertainty tolerance (P = 0.755). However, initial cancer risk perception was significantly associated with both uncertainty tolerance (P = 0.013) and baseline cancer anxiety (risk perception 16.4% versus 65%, not worried at all versus extremely worried, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patient preference varies widely for IPMN and is significantly associated with cancer risk perception, which is, in turn, significantly associated with uncertainty tolerance and cancer anxiety. These findings argue for the preference-sensitive nature of IPMN treatment decisions.

Outcomes in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm-derived pancreatic cancer differ from PanIN-derived pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN)-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) management is generally extrapolated from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN)-derived PDAC guidelines. However, these are biologically divergent, and heterogeneity further exists between tubular and colloid subtypes. METHODS: Consecutive upfront surgery patients with PanIN-derived and IPMN-derived PDAC were retrospectively identified from international centers (2000-2019). One-to-one propensity score matching for clinicopathologic factors generated three cohorts: IPMN-derived versus PanIN-derived PDAC, tubular IPMN-derived versus PanIN-derived PDAC, and tubular versus colloid IPMN-derived PDAC. Overall survival (OS) was compared using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Multivariable Cox regression determined corresponding hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: The median OS (mOS) in 2350 PanIN-derived and 700 IPMN-derived PDAC patients was 23.0 and 43.1 months (P < 0.001), respectively. PanIN-derived PDAC had worse T-stage, CA19-9, grade, and nodal status. Tubular subtype had worse T-stage, CA19-9, grade, nodal status, and R1 margins, with a mOS of 33.7 versus 94.1 months (P < 0.001) in colloid. Matched (n = 495), PanIN-derived and IPMN-derived PDAC had mOSs of 30.6 and 42.8 months (P < 0.001), respectively. In matched (n = 341) PanIN-derived and tubular IPMN-derived PDAC, mOS remained poorer (27.7 vs 37.4, P < 0.001). Matched tubular and colloid cancers (n = 112) had similar OS (P = 0.55). On multivariable Cox regression, PanIN-derived PDAC was associated with worse OS than IPMN-derived (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.44-1.90) and tubular IPMN-derived (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.32-1.77) PDAC. Colloid and tubular subtype was not associated with OS (P = 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: PanIN-derived PDAC has worse survival than IPMN-derived PDAC supporting distinct outcomes. Although more indolent, colloid IPMN-derived PDAC has similar survival to tubular after risk adjustment.

What is the optimal surgical approach for ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic neck? - a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The appropriate surgical approach for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is determined by the tumor's relation to the porto-mesenteric axis. Although the extent and location of lymphadenectomy is dependent on the type of resection, a pancreatoduodenectomy (PD), distal pancreatectomy (DP), or total pancreatectomy (TP) are considered equivalent oncologic operations for pancreatic neck tumors. Therefore, we aimed to assess differences in histopathological and oncological outcomes for surgical approaches in the treatment of pancreatic neck tumors. METHODS: Patients with resected PDAC located in the pancreatic neck were identified from the National Cancer Database (2004-2020). Patients with metastatic disease were excluded. Furthermore, patients with 90-day mortality and R2-resections were excluded from the multivariable Cox-regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 846 patients, 58% underwent PD, 25% DP, and 17% TP with similar R0-resection rates (p = 0.722). Significant differences were observed in nodal positivity (PD:44%, DP:34%, TP:57%, p < 0.001) and mean-number of examined lymph nodes (PD:17.2 ± 10.4, DP:14.7 ± 10.5, TP:21.2 ± 11.0, p < 0.001). Furthermore, inadequate lymphadenectomy (< 12 nodes) was observed in 30%, 44%, and 19% of patients undergoing PD, DP, and TP, respectively (p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis yielded similar overall survival after DP (HR:0.83, 95%CI:0.63-1.11), while TP was associated with worse survival (HR:1.43, 95%CI:1.08-1.89) compared to PD. CONCLUSION: While R0-rates are similar amongst all approaches, DP is associated with inadequate lymphadenectomy which may result in understaging disease. However, this had no negative influence on survival. In the premise that an oncological resection of the pancreatic neck tumor is feasible with a partial pancreatectomy, no benefit is observed by performing a TP.

Persistent Circulating Tumor Cells at 1 Year After Oncologic Resection Predict Late Recurrence in Pancreatic Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to assess the association between persistent circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and subsequent recurrence in patients who were clinically recurrence free ~12 months postoperatively. BACKGROUND: Circulating tumor cells have been proposed as biomarkers to predict survival in pancreatic cancer. Some patients demonstrate persistent CTCs postoperatively, which could represent minimal residual disease. METHODS: Patients from previously published prospective circulating tumor cell in pancreatic cancer trial without clinical evidence of recurrence 12 months postoperatively and CTC testing performed 9 to 15 months postoperatively were included. The presence of epithelial and transitional CTCs (trCTCs) was evaluated as predictor of recurrence. Kaplan-Meier curve, log-rank test, and Cox model were used for survival analysis. RESULTS: Thirty-three of 129 eligible patients (circulating tumor cell in pancreatic cancer trial) were included. The trCTC-positive and negative patients were well balanced in clinicopathologic features. Patients with trCTCs had a recurrence rate per-person-month of 10.3% compared with 3.1% in trCTCs-negative patients with a median time to recurrence of 3.9 versus 27.1 months, respectively. On multivariable analysis, trCTCs positivity was associated with higher risk of late recurrence (hazard ratio: 4.7, 95% CI, 1.2-18.3, P =0.024). Fourteen (42.4%) patients recurred during the second postoperative year. One-year postoperative trCTCs positivity was associated with a higher rate of recurrence during the second year (odds ratio:13.1, 95% CI, 1.6-1953.4, P =0.028, area under curve=0.72). Integrating clinicopathologic features with trCTCs increased the area under curve to 0.80. A majority of trCTCs-positive patients (N=5, 62.5%) had multisite recurrence, followed by local-only (N=2, 25.0%) and liver-only (N=1, 12.5%) recurrence. This was in striking contrast to trCTCs-negative patients, where a majority (N=6, 66.7%) had a local-only recurrence, followed by liver-only (N=2, 22.2%) and multisite (N=1, 11.1%) recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: In patients deemed to be clinically disease-free 12 months postoperatively, trCTCs positivity is associated with higher rates of subsequent recurrence with distinct patterns of recurrence. CTCs could be used a putative biomarker to guide patient prognostication and management in pancreatic cancer.

Conduits in Vascular Pancreatic Surgery: Analysis of Clinical Outcomes, Operative Techniques, and Graft Performance.

OBJECTIVES: We analyze successes and failures of pushing the boundaries in vascular pancreatic surgery to establish safety of conduit reconstructions. BACKGROUND: Improved systemic control from chemotherapy in pancreatic cancer is increasing the demand for surgical solutions of extensive local vessel involvement, but conduit-specific data are scarce. METHODS: We identified 63 implanted conduits (41% autologous vessels, 37% allografts, 18% PTFE) in 56 pancreatic resections of highly selected cancer patients between October 2013 and July 2020 from our prospectively maintained database. Assessed parameters were survival, perioperative complications, operative techniques (anatomic and extra-anatomic routes), and conduit patency. RESULTS: For vascular reconstruction, 25 arterial and 38 venous conduits were utilized during 39 pancreatoduodenectomies, 14 distal pancreatectomies, and 3 total pancreatectomies. The median postoperative survival was 2 years. A Clavien-Dindo grade ≥IIIa complication was apparent in 50% of the patients with a median Comprehensive Complication Index of 29.6. The 90-day mortality in this highly selected cohort was 9%. Causes of mortality were conduit related in 3 patients, late postpancreatectomy hemorrhage in 1 patient, and early liver metastasis in 1 patient. Image-based patency rates of conduits were 66% and 45% at postoperative days 30 and 90, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our perioperative mortality of vascular pancreatic surgery with conduits in the arterial or venous system is 9%. Reconstructions are technically feasible with different anatomic and extra-anatomic strategies, while identifying predictors of early conduit occlusion remains challenging. Optimizing reconstructed arterial and venous hemodynamics in the context of pancreatic malignancy will enable long-term survival in more patients responsive to chemotherapies.

Progression of Site-Specific Recurrence of Pancreatic Cancer and Implications for Treatment.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to analyze post-recurrence progression in context of recurrence sites and assess implications for post-recurrence treatment. BACKGROUND: Most patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) recur within two years. Different survival outcomes for location-specific patterns of recurrence are reported, highlighting their prognostic value. However, a lack of understanding of post-recurrence progression and survival remains. METHODS: This retrospective analysis included surgically treated PDAC patients at the NYU-Langone Health (2010-2021). Sites of recurrence were identified at time of diagnosis and further follow-up. Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank test, and Cox-regression analyses were applied to assess survival outcomes. RESULTS: Recurrence occurred in 57.3% (196/342) patients with a median time to recurrence of 11.3 months (95%CI:12.6 to 16.5). First site of recurrence was local in 43.9% patients, liver in 23.5%, peritoneal in 8.7%, lung in 3.6%, while 20.4% had multiple sites of recurrence. Progression to secondary sites was observed in 11.7%. Only lung involvement was associated with significantly longer survival after recurrence compared to other sites (16.9 months vs. 8.49 months, P=0.003). In local recurrence, 21 (33.3%) patients were alive after one year without progression to secondary sites. This was associated with a CA19-9 of <100U/ml at time of primary diagnosis (P=0.039), nodal negative disease (P=0.023), and well-moderate differentiation (P=0.042) compared to patients with progression. CONCLUSION: Except for lung recurrence, post-recurrence survival after PDAC resection is associated with poor survival. A subset of patients with local-only recurrence do not quickly succumb to systemic spread. This is associated with markers for favorable tumor biology, making them candidates for potential curative re-resections when feasible.

Recurring Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumor: Timing and Pattern of Recurrence and Current Treatment.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to describe the pattern of recurrence, treatments received, as well the oncological outcomes, of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs) following curative surgery. BACKGROUND: PanNETs recur in 10% to 15% of cases following surgery. Information on the natural history and management of recurring disease is lacking. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with PanNET that underwent curative surgery at 4 institutions between 2000 and 2019 were identified. Patients with poorly differentiated tumors, unknown tumor grade and differentiation, hereditary syndromes, unknown margin or R2 status, metastatic, and those that had neoadjuvant treatment or perioperative mortality were excluded. Clinical variables were assessed including first site of recurrence, treatment received, and survival outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1402 patients were included: 957 (74%) had grade 1, 322 (25%) had grade 2, and 13 (1%) had grade 3 tumors. Median follow-up was 4.8 years (interquartile range: 2-8.2 years). Cumulative incidence of recurrence at 5 years was 13% (95% CI: 11%-15.2%) for distant disease, 1.4% (95% CI: 0.8%-2.3%) for locoregional recurrence, and 0.8% (95% CI: 0.4%-1.5%) for abdominal nodal recurrence. Patients who recurred had 2.89 increased risk of death (95% CI: 2-4.1) as compared with patients who did not recur. Therapy postrecurrence included: somatostatin analogs in 111 (61.0%), targeted therapies in 48 (26.4%), liver-directed therapies in 61 (33.5%), peptide receptor radionuclide therapy in 30 (16.5%), and surgery in 46 (25.3%) patients. Multiple treatments were used in 103 (57%) cases. After the first recurrence, 5-year overall survival was 74.6% (95% CI: 67.4%-82.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Recurrence following surgery is infrequent but reduces survival. Most recurrences are distant and managed with multiple therapies. Prospective studies are needed to establish strategies for surveillance and the sequence of treatment to control the disease and prolong survival.

Surgical Decision-Making in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Modeling Prognosis Following Pancreatectomy in the Era of Induction and Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model of oncologic outcomes for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) undergoing resection after neoadjuvant or induction chemotherapy use. BACKGROUND: Early recurrence following surgical resection for PDAC is common. The use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy prior to resection may increase the likelihood of long-term systemic disease control. Accurately characterizing an individual's likely oncologic outcome in the perioperative setting remains challenging. METHODS: Data from patients with PDAC who received chemotherapy prior to pancreatectomy at a single high-volume institution between 2007 and 2018 were captured in a prospectively collected database. Core clinicopathologic data were reviewed for accuracy and survival data were abstracted from the electronic medical record and national databases. Cox-proportional regressions were used to model outcomes and develop an interactive prognostic tool for clinical decision-making. RESULTS: A total of 581 patients were included with a median overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 29.5 (26.5-32.5) and 16.6 (15.8-17.5) months, respectively. Multivariable analysis demonstrates OS and RFS were associated with type of chemotherapeutic used andthe number of chemotherapy cycles received preoperatively. Additional factors contributing to survival models included: tumor grade, histopathologic response to therapy, nodal status, and administration of adjuvant chemotherapy. The models were validated using an iterative bootstrap method and with randomized cohort splitting. The models were well calibrated with concordance indices of 0.68 and 0.65 for the final OS and RFS models, respectively. CONCLUSION: We developed an intuitive and dynamic decision-making tool that can be useful in estimating OS, RFS, and location-specific disease recurrence rates. This prognostic tool may add value to patient care in discussing the benefits associated with surgical resection for PDAC.