Patient-Specific, Mechanistic Models of Tumor Growth Incorporating Artificial Intelligence and Big Data.

Despite the remarkable advances in cancer diagnosis, treatment, and management over the past decade, malignant tumors remain a major public health problem. Further progress in combating cancer may be enabled by personalizing the delivery of therapies according to the predicted response for each individual patient. The design of personalized therapies requires the integration of patient-specific information with an appropriate mathematical model of tumor response. A fundamental barrier to realizing this paradigm is the current lack of a rigorous yet practical mathematical theory of tumor initiation, development, invasion, and response to therapy. We begin this review with an overview of different approaches to modeling tumor growth and treatment, including mechanistic as well as data-driven models based on big data and artificial intelligence. We then present illustrative examples of mathematical models manifesting their utility and discuss the limitations of stand-alone mechanistic and data-driven models. We then discuss the potential of mechanistic models for not only predicting but also optimizing response to therapy on a patient-specific basis. We describe current efforts and future possibilities to integrate mechanistic and data-driven models. We conclude by proposing five fundamental challenges that must be addressed to fully realize personalized care for cancer patients driven by computational models.

Artificial intelligence and radiologists in prostate cancer detection on MRI (PI-CAI): an international, paired, non-inferiority, confirmatory study.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI) systems can potentially aid the diagnostic pathway of prostate cancer by alleviating the increasing workload, preventing overdiagnosis, and reducing the dependence on experienced radiologists. We aimed to investigate the performance of AI systems at detecting clinically significant prostate cancer on MRI in comparison with radiologists using the Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System version 2.1 (PI-RADS 2.1) and the standard of care in multidisciplinary routine practice at scale. METHODS: In this international, paired, non-inferiority, confirmatory study, we trained and externally validated an AI system (developed within an international consortium) for detecting Gleason grade group 2 or greater cancers using a retrospective cohort of 10 207 MRI examinations from 9129 patients. Of these examinations, 9207 cases from three centres (11 sites) based in the Netherlands were used for training and tuning, and 1000 cases from four centres (12 sites) based in the Netherlands and Norway were used for testing. In parallel, we facilitated a multireader, multicase observer study with 62 radiologists (45 centres in 20 countries; median 7 [IQR 5-10] years of experience in reading prostate MRI) using PI-RADS (2.1) on 400 paired MRI examinations from the testing cohort. Primary endpoints were the sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the AI system in comparison with that of all readers using PI-RADS (2.1) and in comparison with that of the historical radiology readings made during multidisciplinary routine practice (ie, the standard of care with the aid of patient history and peer consultation). Histopathology and at least 3 years (median 5 [IQR 4-6] years) of follow-up were used to establish the reference standard. The statistical analysis plan was prespecified with a primary hypothesis of non-inferiority (considering a margin of 0·05) and a secondary hypothesis of superiority towards the AI system, if non-inferiority was confirmed. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05489341. FINDINGS: Of the 10 207 examinations included from Jan 1, 2012, through Dec 31, 2021, 2440 cases had histologically confirmed Gleason grade group 2 or greater prostate cancer. In the subset of 400 testing cases in which the AI system was compared with the radiologists participating in the reader study, the AI system showed a statistically superior and non-inferior AUROC of 0·91 (95% CI 0·87-0·94; p<0·0001), in comparison to the pool of 62 radiologists with an AUROC of 0·86 (0·83-0·89), with a lower boundary of the two-sided 95% Wald CI for the difference in AUROC of 0·02. At the mean PI-RADS 3 or greater operating point of all readers, the AI system detected 6·8% more cases with Gleason grade group 2 or greater cancers at the same specificity (57·7%, 95% CI 51·6-63·3), or 50·4% fewer false-positive results and 20·0% fewer cases with Gleason grade group 1 cancers at the same sensitivity (89·4%, 95% CI 85·3-92·9). In all 1000 testing cases where the AI system was compared with the radiology readings made during multidisciplinary practice, non-inferiority was not confirmed, as the AI system showed lower specificity (68·9% [95% CI 65·3-72·4] vs 69·0% [65·5-72·5]) at the same sensitivity (96·1%, 94·0-98·2) as the PI-RADS 3 or greater operating point. The lower boundary of the two-sided 95% Wald CI for the difference in specificity (-0·04) was greater than the non-inferiority margin (-0·05) and a p value below the significance threshold was reached (p<0·001). INTERPRETATION: An AI system was superior to radiologists using PI-RADS (2.1), on average, at detecting clinically significant prostate cancer and comparable to the standard of care. Such a system shows the potential to be a supportive tool within a primary diagnostic setting, with several associated benefits for patients and radiologists. Prospective validation is needed to test clinical applicability of this system. FUNDING: Health~Holland and EU Horizon 2020.

Use of an Artificial Intelligence-Generated Vascular Severity Score Improved Plus Disease Diagnosis in Retinopathy of Prematurity.

PURPOSE: To evaluate whether providing clinicians with an artificial intelligence (AI)-based vascular severity score (VSS) improves consistency in the diagnosis of plus disease in retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). DESIGN: Multireader diagnostic accuracy imaging study. PARTICIPANTS: Eleven ROP experts, 9 of whom had been in practice for 10 years or more. METHODS: RetCam (Natus Medical Incorporated) fundus images were obtained from premature infants during routine ROP screening as part of the Imaging and Informatics in ROP study between January 2012 and July 2020. From all available examinations, a subset of 150 eye examinations from 110 infants were selected for grading. An AI-based VSS was assigned to each set of images using the i-ROP DL system (Siloam Vision). The clinicians were asked to diagnose plus disease for each examination and to assign an estimated VSS (range, 1-9) at baseline, and then again 1 month later with AI-based VSS assistance. A reference standard diagnosis (RSD) was assigned to each eye examination from the Imaging and Informatics in ROP study based on 3 masked expert labels and the ophthalmoscopic diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean linearly weighted κ value for plus disease diagnosis compared with RSD. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR) for labels 1 through 9 compared with RSD for plus disease. RESULTS: Expert agreement improved significantly, from substantial (κ value, 0.69 [0.59, 0.75]) to near perfect (κ value, 0.81 [0.71, 0.86]), when AI-based VSS was integrated. Additionally, a significant improvement in plus disease discrimination was achieved as measured by mean AUC (from 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.92-0.96] to 0.98 [95% CI, 0.96-0.99]; difference, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.01-0.06]) and AUPR (from 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.90] to 0.95 [95% CI, 0.91-0.97]; difference, 0.09 [95% CI, 0.03-0.14]). CONCLUSIONS: Providing ROP clinicians with an AI-based measurement of vascular severity in ROP was associated with both improved plus disease diagnosis and improved continuous severity labeling as compared with an RSD for plus disease. If implemented in practice, AI-based VSS could reduce interobserver variability and could standardize treatment for infants with ROP. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Stroke-Related Visceral Alterations: A Voxel-Based Neuroanatomic Localization Study.

OBJECTIVE: Functional and morphologic changes in extracranial organs can occur after acute brain injury. The neuroanatomic correlates of such changes are not fully known. Herein, we tested the hypothesis that brain infarcts are associated with cardiac and systemic abnormalities (CSAs) in a regionally specific manner. METHODS: We generated voxelwise p value maps of brain infarcts for poststroke plasma cardiac troponin T (cTnT) elevation, QTc prolongation, in-hospital infection, and acute stress hyperglycemia (ASH) in 1,208 acute ischemic stroke patients prospectively recruited into the Heart-Brain Interactions Study. We examined the relationship between infarct location and CSAs using a permutation-based approach and identified clusters of contiguous voxels associated with p < 0.05. RESULTS: cTnT elevation not attributable to a known cardiac reason was detected in 5.5%, QTc prolongation in the absence of a known provoker in 21.2%, ASH in 33.9%, and poststroke infection in 13.6%. We identified significant, spatially segregated voxel clusters for each CSA. The clusters for troponin elevation and QTc prolongation mapped to the right hemisphere. There were 3 clusters for ASH, the largest of which was in the left hemisphere. We found 2 clusters for poststroke infection, one associated with pneumonia in the left and one with urinary tract infection in the right hemisphere. The relationship between infarct location and CSAs persisted after adjusting for infarct volume. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that there are discrete regions of brain infarcts associated with CSAs. This information could be used to bootstrap toward new markers for better differentiation between neurogenic and non-neurogenic mechanisms of poststroke CSAs. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:1155-1163.

Agreement on Lesion Presence and Location at Colposcopy.

OBJECTIVES/PURPOSE: The reproducibility and sensitivity of image-based colposcopy is low, but agreement on lesion presence and location remains to be explored. Here, we investigate the interobserver agreement on lesions on colposcopic images by evaluating and comparing marked lesions on digitized colposcopic images between colposcopists. METHODS: Five colposcopists reviewed images from 268 colposcopic examinations. Cases were selected based on histologic diagnosis, i.e., normal/cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)1 ( n = 50), CIN2 ( n = 50), CIN3 ( n = 100), adenocarcinoma in situ ( n = 53), and cancer ( n = 15). We obtained digitized time-series images every 7-10 seconds from before acetic acid application to 2 minutes after application. Colposcopists were instructed to digitally annotate all areas with acetowhitening or suspect of lesions. To estimate the agreement on lesion presence and location, we assessed the proportion of images with annotations and the proportion of images with overlapping annotated area by at least 4 (4+) colposcopists, respectively. RESULTS: We included images from 241 examinations (1 image from each) with adequate annotations. The proportion with a least 1 lesion annotated by 4+ colposcopists increased by severity of histologic diagnosis. Among the CIN3 cases, 84% had at least 1 lesion annotated by 4+ colposcopists, whereas 54% of normal/CIN1 cases had a lesion annotated. Notably, the proportion was 70% for adenocarcinoma in situ and 71% for cancer. Regarding lesion location, there was no linear association with severity of histologic diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Despite that 80% of the CIN2 and CIN3 cases were annotated by 4+ colposcopists, we did not find increasing agreement on lesion location with histology severity. This underlines the subjective nature of colposcopy.

Inconsistent Partitioning and Unproductive Feature Associations Yield Idealized Radiomic Models.

Background Radiomics is the extraction of predefined mathematic features from medical images for the prediction of variables of clinical interest. While some studies report superlative accuracy of radiomic machine learning (ML) models, the published methodology is often incomplete, and the results are rarely validated in external testing data sets. Purpose To characterize the type, prevalence, and statistical impact of methodologic errors present in radiomic ML studies. Materials and Methods Radiomic ML publications were reviewed for the presence of performance-inflating methodologic flaws. Common flaws were subsequently reproduced with randomly generated features interpolated from publicly available radiomic data sets to demonstrate the precarious nature of reported findings. Results In an assessment of radiomic ML publications, the authors uncovered two general categories of data analysis errors: inconsistent partitioning and unproductive feature associations. In simulations, the authors demonstrated that inconsistent partitioning augments radiomic ML accuracy by 1.4 times from unbiased performance and that correcting for flawed methodologic results in areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve approaching a value of 0.5 (random chance). With use of randomly generated features, the authors illustrated that unproductive associations between radiomic features and gene sets can imply false causality for biologic phenomenon. Conclusion Radiomic machine learning studies may contain methodologic flaws that undermine their validity. This study provides a review template to avoid such flaws. © RSNA, 2022 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Jacobs in this issue.

Machine Learning for Adrenal Gland Segmentation and Classification of Normal and Adrenal Masses at CT.

Background Adrenal masses are common, but radiology reporting and recommendations for management can be variable. Purpose To create a machine learning algorithm to segment adrenal glands on contrast-enhanced CT images and classify glands as normal or mass-containing and to assess algorithm performance. Materials and Methods This retrospective study included two groups of contrast-enhanced abdominal CT examinations (development data set and secondary test set). Adrenal glands in the development data set were manually segmented by radiologists. Images in both the development data set and the secondary test set were manually classified as normal or mass-containing. Deep learning segmentation and classification models were trained on the development data set and evaluated on both data sets. Segmentation performance was evaluated with use of the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), and classification performance with use of sensitivity and specificity. Results The development data set contained 274 CT examinations (251 patients; median age, 61 years; 133 women), and the secondary test set contained 991 CT examinations (991 patients; median age, 62 years; 578 women). The median model DSC on the development test set was 0.80 (IQR, 0.78-0.89) for normal glands and 0.84 (IQR, 0.79-0.90) for adrenal masses. On the development reader set, the median interreader DSC was 0.89 (IQR, 0.78-0.93) for normal glands and 0.89 (IQR, 0.85-0.97) for adrenal masses. Interreader DSC for radiologist manual segmentation did not differ from automated machine segmentation (P = .35). On the development test set, the model had a classification sensitivity of 83% (95% CI: 55, 95) and specificity of 89% (95% CI: 75, 96). On the secondary test set, the model had a classification sensitivity of 69% (95% CI: 58, 79) and specificity of 91% (95% CI: 90, 92). Conclusion A two-stage machine learning pipeline was able to segment the adrenal glands and differentiate normal adrenal glands from those containing masses. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Epidemiologic Evaluation of Retinopathy of Prematurity Severity in a Large Telemedicine Program in India Using Artificial Intelligence.

PURPOSE: Epidemiological changes in retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) depend on neonatal care, neonatal mortality, and the ability to carefully titrate and monitor oxygen. We evaluate whether an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm for assessing ROP severity in babies can be used to evaluate changes in disease epidemiology in babies from South India over a 5-year period. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Babies (3093) screened for ROP at neonatal care units (NCUs) across the Aravind Eye Care System (AECS) in South India. METHODS: Images and clinical data were collected as part of routine tele-ROP screening at the AECS in India over 2 time periods: August 2015 to October 2017 and March 2019 to December 2020. All babies in the original cohort were matched 1:3 by birthweight (BW) and gestational age (GA) with babies in the later cohort. We compared the proportion of eyes with moderate (type 2) or treatment-requiring (TR) ROP, and an AI-derived ROP vascular severity score (from retinal fundus images) at the initial tele-retinal screening exam for all babies in a district, VSS), in the 2 time periods. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Differences in the proportions of type 2 or worse and TR-ROP cases, and VSS between time periods. RESULTS: Among BW and GA matched babies, the proportion [95% confidence interval {CI}] of babies with type 2 or worse and TR-ROP decreased from 60.9% [53.8%-67.7%] to 17.1% [14.0%-20.5%] (P < 0.001) and 16.8% [11.9%-22.7%] to 5.1% [3.4%-7.3%] (P < 0.001), over the 2 time periods. Similarly, the median [interquartile range] VSS in the population decreased from 2.9 [1.2] to 2.4 [1.8] (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In South India, over a 5-year period, the proportion of babies developing moderate to severe ROP has dropped significantly for babies at similar demographic risk, strongly suggesting improvements in primary prevention of ROP. These results suggest that AI-based assessment of ROP severity may be a useful epidemiologic tool to evaluate temporal changes in ROP epidemiology. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Deep Learning Applications for Acute Stroke Management.

Brain imaging is essential to the clinical care of patients with stroke, a leading cause of disability and death worldwide. Whereas advanced neuroimaging techniques offer opportunities for aiding acute stroke management, several factors, including time delays, inter-clinician variability, and lack of systemic conglomeration of clinical information, hinder their maximal utility. Recent advances in deep machine learning (DL) offer new strategies for harnessing computational medical image analysis to inform decision making in acute stroke. We examine the current state of the field for DL models in stroke triage. First, we provide a brief, clinical practice-focused primer on DL. Next, we examine real-world examples of DL applications in pixel-wise labeling, volumetric lesion segmentation, stroke detection, and prediction of tissue fate postintervention. We evaluate recent deployments of deep neural networks and their ability to automatically select relevant clinical features for acute decision making, reduce inter-rater variability, and boost reliability in rapid neuroimaging assessments, and integrate neuroimaging with electronic medical record (EMR) data in order to support clinicians in routine and triage stroke management. Ultimately, we aim to provide a framework for critically evaluating existing automated approaches, thus equipping clinicians with the ability to understand and potentially apply DL approaches in order to address challenges in clinical practice. ANN NEUROL 2022;92:574-587.

Collaborative Privacy-preserving Approaches for Distributed Deep Learning Using Multi-Institutional Data.

Deep learning (DL) algorithms have shown remarkable potential in automating various tasks in medical imaging and radiologic reporting. However, models trained on low quantities of data or only using data from a single institution often are not generalizable to other institutions, which may have different patient demographics or data acquisition characteristics. Therefore, training DL algorithms using data from multiple institutions is crucial to improving the robustness and generalizability of clinically useful DL models. In the context of medical data, simply pooling data from each institution to a central location to train a model poses several issues such as increased risk to patient privacy, increased costs for data storage and transfer, and regulatory challenges. These challenges of centrally hosting data have motivated the development of distributed machine learning techniques and frameworks for collaborative learning that facilitate the training of DL models without the need to explicitly share private medical data. The authors describe several popular methods for collaborative training and review the main considerations for deploying these models. They also highlight publicly available software frameworks for federated learning and showcase several real-world examples of collaborative learning. The authors conclude by discussing some key challenges and future research directions for distributed DL. They aim to introduce clinicians to the benefits, limitations, and risks of using distributed DL for the development of medical artificial intelligence algorithms. ©RSNA, 2023 Quiz questions for this article are available in the supplemental material.

Artificial Intelligence for Retinopathy of Prematurity: Validation of a Vascular Severity Scale against International Expert Diagnosis.

PURPOSE: To validate a vascular severity score as an appropriate output for artificial intelligence (AI) Software as a Medical Device (SaMD) for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) through comparison with ordinal disease severity labels for stage and plus disease assigned by the International Classification of Retinopathy of Prematurity, Third Edition (ICROP3), committee. DESIGN: Validation study of an AI-based ROP vascular severity score. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 34 ROP experts from the ICROP3 committee. METHODS: Two separate datasets of 30 fundus photographs each for stage (0-5) and plus disease (plus, preplus, neither) were labeled by members of the ICROP3 committee using an open-source platform. Averaging these results produced a continuous label for plus (1-9) and stage (1-3) for each image. Experts were also asked to compare each image to each other in terms of relative severity for plus disease. Each image was also labeled with a vascular severity score from the Imaging and Informatics in ROP deep learning system, which was compared with each grader's diagnostic labels for correlation, as well as the ophthalmoscopic diagnosis of stage. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted kappa and Pearson correlation coefficients (CCs) were calculated between each pair of grader classification labels for stage and plus disease. The Elo algorithm was also used to convert pairwise comparisons for each expert into an ordered set of images from least to most severe. RESULTS: The mean weighted kappa and CC for all interobserver pairs for plus disease image comparison were 0.67 and 0.88, respectively. The vascular severity score was found to be highly correlated with both the average plus disease classification (CC = 0.90, P < 0.001) and the ophthalmoscopic diagnosis of stage (P < 0.001 by analysis of variance) among all experts. CONCLUSIONS: The ROP vascular severity score correlates well with the International Classification of Retinopathy of Prematurity committee member's labels for plus disease and stage, which had significant intergrader variability. Generation of a consensus for a validated scoring system for ROP SaMD can facilitate global innovation and regulatory authorization of these technologies.

Radiology Implementation Considerations for Artificial Intelligence (AI) Applied to COVID-19, From the AJR Special Series on AI Applications.

Hundreds of imaging-based artificial intelligence (AI) models have been developed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. AI systems that incorporate imaging have shown promise in primary detection, severity grading, and prognostication of outcomes in COVID-19, and have enabled integration of imaging with a broad range of additional clinical and epidemiologic data. However, systematic reviews of AI models applied to COVID-19 medical imaging have highlighted problems in the field, including methodologic issues and problems in real-world deployment. Clinical use of such models should be informed by both the promise and potential pitfalls of implementation. How does a practicing radiologist make sense of this complex topic, and what factors should be considered in the implementation of AI tools for imaging of COVID-19? This critical review aims to help the radiologist understand the nuances that impact the clinical deployment of AI for imaging of COVID-19. We review imaging use cases for AI models in COVID-19 (e.g., diagnosis, severity assessment, and prognostication) and explore considerations for AI model development and testing, deployment infrastructure, clinical user interfaces, quality control, and institutional review board and regulatory approvals, with a practical focus on what a radiologist should consider when implementing an AI tool for COVID-19.

Artificial intelligence applied to musculoskeletal oncology: a systematic review.

Developments in artificial intelligence have the potential to improve the care of patients with musculoskeletal tumors. We performed a systematic review of the published scientific literature to identify the current state of the art of artificial intelligence applied to musculoskeletal oncology, including both primary and metastatic tumors, and across the radiology, nuclear medicine, pathology, clinical research, and molecular biology literature. Through this search, we identified 252 primary research articles, of which 58 used deep learning and 194 used other machine learning techniques. Articles involving deep learning have mostly involved bone scintigraphy, histopathology, and radiologic imaging. Articles involving other machine learning techniques have mostly involved transcriptomic analyses, radiomics, and clinical outcome prediction models using medical records. These articles predominantly present proof-of-concept work, other than the automated bone scan index for bone metastasis quantification, which has translated to clinical workflows in some regions. We systematically review and discuss this literature, highlight opportunities for multidisciplinary collaboration, and identify potentially clinically useful topics with a relative paucity of research attention. Musculoskeletal oncology is an inherently multidisciplinary field, and future research will need to integrate and synthesize noisy siloed data from across clinical, imaging, and molecular datasets. Building the data infrastructure for collaboration will help to accelerate progress towards making artificial intelligence truly useful in musculoskeletal oncology.

Highdicom: a Python Library for Standardized Encoding of Image Annotations and Machine Learning Model Outputs in Pathology and Radiology.

Machine learning (ML) is revolutionizing image-based diagnostics in pathology and radiology. ML models have shown promising results in research settings, but the lack of interoperability between ML systems and enterprise medical imaging systems has been a major barrier for clinical integration and evaluation. The DICOM® standard specifies information object definitions (IODs) and services for the representation and communication of digital images and related information, including image-derived annotations and analysis results. However, the complexity of the standard represents an obstacle for its adoption in the ML community and creates a need for software libraries and tools that simplify working with datasets in DICOM format. Here we present the highdicom library, which provides a high-level application programming interface (API) for the Python programming language that abstracts low-level details of the standard and enables encoding and decoding of image-derived information in DICOM format in a few lines of Python code. The highdicom library leverages NumPy arrays for efficient data representation and ties into the extensive Python ecosystem for image processing and machine learning. Simultaneously, by simplifying creation and parsing of DICOM-compliant files, highdicom achieves interoperability with the medical imaging systems that hold the data used to train and run ML models, and ultimately communicate and store model outputs for clinical use. We demonstrate through experiments with slide microscopy and computed tomography imaging, that, by bridging these two ecosystems, highdicom enables developers and researchers to train and evaluate state-of-the-art ML models in pathology and radiology while remaining compliant with the DICOM standard and interoperable with clinical systems at all stages. To promote standardization of ML research and streamline the ML model development and deployment process, we made the library available free and open-source at https://github.com/herrmannlab/highdicom .

CoVA: An Acuity Score for Outpatient Screening that Predicts Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prognosis.

BACKGROUND: We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death for patients at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting for urgent care. METHODS: We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) based on a single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics or the emergency department. Data were extracted from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse, and split into development (n = 9381, 7 March-2 May) and prospective (n = 2205, 3-14 May) cohorts. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness (intensive care unit or ventilation), or death within 7 days. Calibration was assessed using the expected-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). RESULTS: In the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively. CoVA showed excellent performance in prospective validation for hospitalization (expected-to-observed ratio [E/O]: 1.01; AUC: 0.76), for critical illness (E/O: 1.03; AUC: 0.79), and for death (E/O: 1.63; AUC: 0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top 5 were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate. CONCLUSIONS: CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score for the outpatient setting to predict adverse events related to COVID-19 infection.

The RSNA International COVID-19 Open Radiology Database (RICORD).

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health care emergency. Although reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction testing is the reference standard method to identify patients with COVID-19 infection, chest radiography and CT play a vital role in the detection and management of these patients. Prediction models for COVID-19 imaging are rapidly being developed to support medical decision making. However, inadequate availability of a diverse annotated data set has limited the performance and generalizability of existing models. To address this unmet need, the RSNA and Society of Thoracic Radiology collaborated to develop the RSNA International COVID-19 Open Radiology Database (RICORD). This database is the first multi-institutional, multinational, expert-annotated COVID-19 imaging data set. It is made freely available to the machine learning community as a research and educational resource for COVID-19 chest imaging. Pixel-level volumetric segmentation with clinical annotations was performed by thoracic radiology subspecialists for all COVID-19-positive thoracic CT scans. The labeling schema was coordinated with other international consensus panels and COVID-19 data annotation efforts, the European Society of Medical Imaging Informatics, the American College of Radiology, and the American Association of Physicists in Medicine. Study-level COVID-19 classification labels for chest radiographs were annotated by three radiologists, with majority vote adjudication by board-certified radiologists. RICORD consists of 240 thoracic CT scans and 1000 chest radiographs contributed from four international sites. It is anticipated that RICORD will ideally lead to prediction models that can demonstrate sustained performance across populations and health care systems.

Evaluation of a Deep Learning-Derived Quantitative Retinopathy of Prematurity Severity Scale.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical usefulness of a quantitative deep learning-derived vascular severity score for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) by assessing its correlation with clinical ROP diagnosis and by measuring clinician agreement in applying a novel scale. DESIGN: Analysis of existing database of posterior pole fundus images and corresponding ophthalmoscopic examinations using 2 methods of assigning a quantitative scale to vascular severity. PARTICIPANTS: Images were from clinical examinations of patients in the Imaging and Informatics in ROP Consortium. Four ophthalmologists and 1 study coordinator evaluated vascular severity on a scale from 1 to 9. METHODS: A quantitative vascular severity score (1-9) was applied to each image using a deep learning algorithm. A database of 499 images was developed for assessment of interobserver agreement. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Distribution of deep learning-derived vascular severity scores with the clinical assessment of zone (I, II, or III), stage (0, 1, 2, or 3), and extent (<3 clock hours, 3-6 clock hours, and >6 clock hours) of stage 3 evaluated using multivariate linear regression and weighted κ values and Pearson correlation coefficients for interobserver agreement on a 1-to-9 vascular severity scale. RESULTS: For deep learning analysis, a total of 6344 clinical examinations were analyzed. A higher deep learning-derived vascular severity score was associated with more posterior disease, higher disease stage, and higher extent of stage 3 disease (P < 0.001 for all). For a given ROP stage, the vascular severity score was higher in zone I than zones II or III (P < 0.001). Multivariate regression found zone, stage, and extent all were associated independently with the severity score (P < 0.001 for all). For interobserver agreement, the mean ± standard deviation weighted κ value was 0.67 ± 0.06, and the Pearson correlation coefficient ± standard deviation was 0.88 ± 0.04 on the use of a 1-to-9 vascular severity scale. CONCLUSIONS: A vascular severity scale for ROP seems feasible for clinical adoption; corresponds with zone, stage, extent of stage 3, and plus disease; and facilitates the use of objective technology such as deep learning to improve the consistency of ROP diagnosis.

Quantitative tumor heterogeneity MRI profiling improves machine learning-based prognostication in patients with metastatic colon cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Intra-tumor heterogeneity has been previously shown to be an independent predictor of patient survival. The goal of this study is to assess the role of quantitative MRI-based measures of intra-tumor heterogeneity as predictors of survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. METHODS: In this IRB-approved retrospective study, we identified 55 patients with stage 4 colon cancer with known hepatic metastasis on MRI. Ninety-four metastatic hepatic lesions were identified on post-contrast images and manually volumetrically segmented. A heterogeneity phenotype vector was extracted from each lesion. Univariate regression analysis was used to assess the contribution of 110 extracted features to survival prediction. A random forest-based machine learning technique was applied to the feature vector and to the standard prognostic clinical and pathologic variables. The dataset was divided into a training and test set at a ratio of 4:1. ROC analysis and confusion matrix analysis were used to assess classification performance. RESULTS: Mean survival time was 39 ± 3.9 months for the study population. A total of 22 texture features were associated with patient survival (p < 0.05). The trained random forest machine learning model that included standard clinical and pathological prognostic variables resulted in an area under the ROC curve of 0.83. A model that adds imaging-based heterogeneity features to the clinical and pathological variables resulted in improved model performance for survival prediction with an AUC of 0.94. CONCLUSIONS: MRI-based texture features are associated with patient outcomes and improve the performance of standard clinical and pathological variables for predicting patient survival in metastatic colorectal cancer. KEY POINTS: • MRI-based tumor heterogeneity texture features are associated with patient survival outcomes. • MRI-based tumor texture features complement standard clinical and pathological variables for prognosis prediction in metastatic colorectal cancer. • Agglomerative hierarchical clustering shows that patient survival outcomes are associated with different MRI tumor profiles.

Right Ventricular Strain Is Common in Intubated COVID-19 Patients and Does Not Reflect Severity of Respiratory Illness.

BACKGROUND: Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction is common and associated with worse outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In non-COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome, RV dysfunction develops due to pulmonary hypoxic vasoconstriction, inflammation, and alveolar overdistension or atelectasis. Although similar pathogenic mechanisms may induce RV dysfunction in COVID-19, other COVID-19-specific pathology, such as pulmonary endothelialitis, thrombosis, or myocarditis, may also affect RV function. We quantified RV dysfunction by echocardiographic strain analysis and investigated its correlation with disease severity, ventilatory parameters, biomarkers, and imaging findings in critically ill COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We determined RV free wall longitudinal strain (FWLS) in 32 patients receiving mechanical ventilation for COVID-19-associated respiratory failure. Demographics, comorbid conditions, ventilatory parameters, medications, and laboratory findings were extracted from the medical record. Chest imaging was assessed to determine the severity of lung disease and the presence of pulmonary embolism. RESULTS: Abnormal FWLS was present in 66% of mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients and was associated with higher lung compliance (39.6 vs 29.4 mL/cmH2O, P = 0.016), lower airway plateau pressures (21 vs 24 cmH2O, P = 0.043), lower tidal volume ventilation (5.74 vs 6.17 cc/kg, P = 0.031), and reduced left ventricular function. FWLS correlated negatively with age (r = -0.414, P = 0.018) and with serum troponin (r = 0.402, P = 0.034). Patients with abnormal RV strain did not exhibit decreased oxygenation or increased disease severity based on inflammatory markers, vasopressor requirements, or chest imaging findings. CONCLUSIONS: RV dysfunction is common among critically ill COVID-19 patients and is not related to abnormal lung mechanics or ventilatory pressures. Instead, patients with abnormal FWLS had more favorable lung compliance. RV dysfunction may be secondary to diffuse intravascular micro- and macro-thrombosis or direct myocardial damage. TRIAL REGISTRATION: National Institutes of Health #NCT04306393. Registered 10 March 2020, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04306393.

Automated tracking of emergency department abdominal CT findings during the COVID-19 pandemic using natural language processing.

PURPOSE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency department (ED) volumes have fluctuated. We hypothesized that natural language processing (NLP) models could quantify changes in detection of acute abdominal pathology (acute appendicitis (AA), acute diverticulitis (AD), or bowel obstruction (BO)) on CT reports. METHODS: This retrospective study included 22,182 radiology reports from CT abdomen/pelvis studies performed at an urban ED between January 1, 2018 to August 14, 2020. Using a subset of 2448 manually annotated reports, we trained random forest NLP models to classify the presence of AA, AD, and BO in report impressions. Performance was assessed using 5-fold cross validation. The NLP classifiers were then applied to all reports. RESULTS: The NLP classifiers for AA, AD, and BO demonstrated cross-validation classification accuracies between 0.97 and 0.99 and F1-scores between 0.86 and 0.91. When applied to all CT reports, the estimated numbers of AA, AD, and BO cases decreased 43-57% in April 2020 (first regional peak of COVID-19 cases) compared to 2018-2019. However, the number of abdominal pathologies detected rebounded in May-July 2020, with increases above historical averages for AD. The proportions of CT studies with these pathologies did not significantly increase during the pandemic period. CONCLUSION: Dramatic decreases in numbers of acute abdominal pathologies detected by ED CT studies were observed early on during the COVID-19 pandemic, though these numbers rapidly rebounded. The proportions of CT cases with these pathologies did not increase, which suggests patients deferred care during the first pandemic peak. NLP can help automatically track findings in ED radiology reporting.