Cost-effectiveness analysis for avelumab first-line maintenance treatment of advanced urothelial carcinoma in Scotland.

Aim: The cost-effectiveness of avelumab first-line maintenance treatment for locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma in Scotland was assessed. Materials & methods: A partitioned survival model was developed comparing avelumab plus best supportive care (BSC) versus BSC alone, incorporating JAVELIN Bladder 100 trial data, costs from national databases and published literature and clinical expert validation of assumptions. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated using lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Results: Avelumab plus BSC had incremental costs of £9446 and a QALY gain of 0.63, leading to a base-case (deterministic) ICER of £15,046 per QALY gained, supported by robust sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Avelumab first-line maintenance is likely to be a cost-effective treatment for locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma in Scotland.

What is this article about? This study looked at the costs of avelumab when given as maintenance treatment for people in Scotland with advanced urothelial carcinoma, compared with the longer survival and other benefits that it provides. How was this done? Researchers estimated the costs and treatment benefits expected with avelumab using data from a clinical trial called JAVELIN Bladder 100, national databases, data from previously published studies and expert opinions. What were the results? Costs associated with using avelumab maintenance treatment for people with advanced urothelial carcinoma in Scotland were considered to be acceptable based on the benefits it provides. What do the results of the study mean? These results support the use of avelumab first-line maintenance as a standard treatment for people with advanced urothelial carcinoma in Scotland.

Matching-adjusted indirect comparison of amivantamab vs mobocertinib in platinum-pretreated EGFR Exon 20 insertion-mutated non-small-cell lung cancer.

Aim: We assessed relative efficacy and safety of amivantamab versus mobocertinib in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer with EGFR exon 20 insertion (exon20ins) mutations who progressed on prior platinum-based chemotherapy. Materials & methods: This matching-adjusted indirect comparison used patient-level data from CHRYSALIS (NCT02609776) and aggregate data from a mobocertinib trial (NCT02716116) to match populations on all clinically relevant confounders. Results: While both agents had similar efficacy for time-to-event outcomes, objective response rate was significantly higher for amivantamab. 15 of 23 any-grade treatment-related adverse events reported for mobocertinib were significantly less common for amivantamab versus only two for mobocertinib. Conclusion: Results suggest that amivantamab has an improved response rate with similar survival and a more favorable safety profile versus mobocertinib in EGFR exon20ins non-small-cell lung cancer.

How Assessment-Schedule Matching Limits Bias When Comparing Progression-Free Survival in Single-Arm Studies: An Application in Second-Line Urothelial Carcinoma Treatments.

OBJECTIVES: Population-adjusted comparisons of progression-free survival (PFS) from single-arm trials of cancer treatments can be derived using matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAICs); however, results are still susceptible to bias, particularly if the trials had different tumor assessment schedules. This study aims to assess the effects of assessment-schedule matching (ASM) on the relative effectiveness on the PFS of avelumab versus approved comparator immunotherapies or chemotherapy after population matching in the second-line (2L) setting for metastatic urothelial carcinoma. METHODS: The MAIC used patient-level data for avelumab from the JAVELIN Solid Tumor trial (NCT01772004). PFS was compared with published curves for other treatments to obtain population-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). The MAIC was repeated after conducting ASM for differences in tumor assessment scheduled first at 6 weeks for avelumab and durvalumab and at 8 or 9 weeks for other treatments. RESULTS: MAIC adjustment alone altered the HR estimates up to 23%, whereas MAIC plus ASM resulted in up to 32.7% reductions from naive comparisons. Even in cases in which MAIC had little effect, ASM brought an additional change of 11.1% to 15.4%. Overall, the HR range of avelumab versus other treatments changed from 0.83 to 1.25 for naive comparisons to 0.76 to 0.99 after ASM plus MAIC, numerically favoring avelumab. CONCLUSIONS: Small variations in assessment schedules can introduce bias in unanchored indirect treatment comparisons of interval-censored time-to-event outcomes. In this study, adjusted PFS was comparable across second-line urothelial carcinoma treatment options, numerically favoring avelumab versus immunotherapies and chemotherapy agents. Correcting this bias is especially important when HRs are applied in cost-effectiveness models to transition patients between states.

Automated Diabetic Retinopathy Image Assessment Software: Diagnostic Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness Compared with Human Graders.

OBJECTIVE: With the increasing prevalence of diabetes, annual screening for diabetic retinopathy (DR) by expert human grading of retinal images is challenging. Automated DR image assessment systems (ARIAS) may provide clinically effective and cost-effective detection of retinopathy. We aimed to determine whether ARIAS can be safely introduced into DR screening pathways to replace human graders. DESIGN: Observational measurement comparison study of human graders following a national screening program for DR versus ARIAS. PARTICIPANTS: Retinal images from 20 258 consecutive patients attending routine annual diabetic eye screening between June 1, 2012, and November 4, 2013. METHODS: Retinal images were manually graded following a standard national protocol for DR screening and were processed by 3 ARIAS: iGradingM, Retmarker, and EyeArt. Discrepancies between manual grades and ARIAS results were sent to a reading center for arbitration. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Screening performance (sensitivity, false-positive rate) and diagnostic accuracy (95% confidence intervals of screening-performance measures) were determined. Economic analysis estimated the cost per appropriate screening outcome. RESULTS: Sensitivity point estimates (95% confidence intervals) of the ARIAS were as follows: EyeArt 94.7% (94.2%-95.2%) for any retinopathy, 93.8% (92.9%-94.6%) for referable retinopathy (human graded as either ungradable, maculopathy, preproliferative, or proliferative), 99.6% (97.0%-99.9%) for proliferative retinopathy; Retmarker 73.0% (72.0 %-74.0%) for any retinopathy, 85.0% (83.6%-86.2%) for referable retinopathy, 97.9% (94.9%-99.1%) for proliferative retinopathy. iGradingM classified all images as either having disease or being ungradable. EyeArt and Retmarker saved costs compared with manual grading both as a replacement for initial human grading and as a filter prior to primary human grading, although the latter approach was less cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Retmarker and EyeArt systems achieved acceptable sensitivity for referable retinopathy when compared with that of human graders and had sufficient specificity to make them cost-effective alternatives to manual grading alone. ARIAS have the potential to reduce costs in developed-world health care economies and to aid delivery of DR screening in developing or remote health care settings.

Prevalence of Active Long-term Problems in Patients With Anorectal Malformations: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Anorectal malformations are a spectrum of congenital anomalies of the rectum with high infantile survival rates and variable outcomes. Long-term (>10 years old) active problems associated with this condition have been poorly investigated. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this review was to systematically define the prevalence of the most common active long-term problems in patients with a history of anorectal malformation repair. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched electronically using the OVID search platform. STUDY SELECTION: Original articles from August 1, 1994, to October 20, 2015, that included outcome data for patients aged ≥10 years with anorectal malformation. Cloaca was excluded from the study. INTERVENTIONS: Prevalence estimates of anorectal malformations were obtained from published articles. CIs were ascertained in the logit scale after transforming prevalence into log odds and were then transformed into the original scale. The same method was used for subgroup analysis investigating high and low anorectal malformations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The overall prevalences of fecal, urinary, and sexual dysfunction were analyzed. RESULTS: Twelve studies including 455 patients with a history of anorectal malformation repair were included for analysis. The range of reported prevalence of long-term active problems was as follows: fecal incontinence, 16.7% to 76.7%; chronic constipation, 22.2% to 86.7%; urinary incontinence, 1.7% to 30.5%; ejaculatory dysfunction, 15.6% to 41.2%; and erectile dysfunction, 5.6% to 11.8%. LIMITATIONS: The study was limited by its retrospective, small size; multiple complex associated anomalies often not reported; and heterogeneous composition of patients with limited stratification analysis. CONCLUSIONS: There is an overall high prevalence of active long-term issues in adolescents and young adults with anorectal malformations. Additional multicenter research is needed to define characteristics and predictors of long-term outcome, to implement effective follow-up, and to transition to adult health care.

Descriptive analysis to assess seasonal patterns of COVID-19 and influenza in low-income and middle-income countries in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding disease seasonality can help predict the occurrence of outbreaks and inform public health planning. Respiratory diseases typically follow seasonal patterns; however, knowledge regarding the seasonality of COVID-19 and its impact on the seasonality of influenza remains limited. The objective of this study was to provide more evidence to understand the circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in an endemic scenario to guide potential preventive strategies. DESIGN: In this study, a descriptive analysis was undertaken to describe seasonality trends and/or overlap between COVID-19 and influenza in 12 low-income and middle-income countries using Our World in Data and FluMart data sources. Plots of COVID-19 and influenza cases were analysed. SETTING: Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 cases and influenza cases. RESULTS: No seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2/influenza cocirculation were observed in most countries, even when considering the avian influenza pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS: These results can inform public health strategies. The lack of observed seasonal behaviour highlights the importance of maintaining year-round vaccination rather than implementing seasonal campaigns. Further research investigating the influence of climate conditions, social behaviour and year-round preventive measures could be fundamental for shaping appropriate policies related to COVID-19 and respiratory viral disease control in low-income and middle-income countries as COVID-19 variant data and epidemiologic patterns accrue over time.

A semi-Markov model for stroke with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring.

This paper presents a parametric method of fitting semi-Markov models with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring. We investigate transition intensities in a three-state illness-death model with no recovery. We relax the Markov assumption by adjusting the intensity for the transition from state 2 (illness) to state 3 (death) for the time spent in state 2 through a time-varying covariate. This involves the exact time of the transition from state 1 (healthy) to state 2. When the data are subject to left or interval censoring, this time is unknown. In the estimation of the likelihood, we take into account interval censoring by integrating out all possible times for the transition from state 1 to state 2. For left censoring, we use an Expectation-Maximisation inspired algorithm. A simulation study reflects the performance of the method. The proposed combination of statistical procedures provides great flexibility. We illustrate the method in an application by using data on stroke onset for the older population from the UK Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of avelumab plus best supportive care versus best supportive care alone as first-line maintenance treatment for patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma have limited treatment options and a poor prognosis. The JAVELIN Bladder 100 trial showed that avelumab as first-line maintenance plus best supportive care significantly prolonged overall survival and progression-free survival versus best supportive care alone in patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma that had not progressed with first-line platinum-containing chemotherapy. AIMS: We assessed whether avelumab plus best supportive care is a cost-effective treatment option versus best supportive care alone in this patient group in Taiwan. METHODS AND RESULTS: A partitioned survival model was used to estimate the costs and effects of avelumab plus best supportive care versus best supportive care alone over a 20-year time horizon from the perspective of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Administration. Patient-level data from JAVELIN Bladder 100 on efficacy, safety, utility, and time on treatment were analyzed to provide parameters for the model. Log-normal and Weibull distributions were used for overall survival and progression-free survival, respectively. Costs of healthcare resources, drug acquisition, adverse events, and progression were identified through publicly available data sources and clinician interviews. The model estimated total costs, life years, and quality-adjusted life years. In the modeled base case, avelumab plus best supportive care increased survival versus best supportive care alone by 0.79 life years (2.93 vs. 2.14) and 0.61 quality-adjusted life years (2.15 vs. 1.54). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for avelumab plus best supportive care versus best supportive care alone was NT$1 827 680. Most (78%) of the probabilistic sensitivity analyses fell below three times the gross domestic product per capita. Scenario analysis indicated that life year and quality-adjusted life year gains were most sensitive to alternative survival extrapolations for both avelumab plus best supportive care and best supportive care alone. CONCLUSION: Avelumab first-line maintenance therapy combined with best supportive care was determined as a cost-effective treatment strategy for patients in Taiwan diagnosed with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma that had not progressed with platinum-containing chemotherapy.

Tafasitamab Plus Lenalidomide Versus 3 Rituximab-Based Treatments for Non-Transplant Eligible Relapsed/Refractory Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma: A Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparison.

INTRODUCTION: Tafasitamab plus lenalidomide (TAFA + LEN) received accelerated US Food and Drug Administration approval and conditional European Medicines Agency approval for treatment of adults with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (R/R DLBCL) not eligible for autologous stem cell transplant. This study investigates the relative efficacy of TAFA + LEN versus comparator treatments. METHODS: Matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAICs) of TAFA + LEN were performed using data from L-MIND, and comparator studies assessing rituximab-based combination therapies, including polatuzumab vedotin + bendamustine + rituximab (POLA + BR) bendamustine + rituximab (BR), and gemcitabine + oxaliplatin + rituximab (R-GEMOX) to provide relative efficacy estimates for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), duration of response (DOR), objective response rate (ORR), and complete response rate (CRR). Patient-level data from L-MIND were weighted to match reported distributions of clinically validated prognostic factors and effect modifiers in comparator trials. MAIC results versus multiple BR studies were pooled using meta-analysis. RESULTS: MAICs were feasible versus POLA + BR and BR. Compared to POLA + BR, TAFA + LEN was associated with significantly longer DOR [hazard ratio (HR) 0.34 (95% CI 0.12, 0.98); p = 0.045]. Due to concerns about the proportional hazard assumption for OS and PFS, separate HRs were estimated before and after 4 months of follow-up. OS after 4 months, was significantly greater for TAFA + LEN versus POLA + BR [HR 0.41 (95% CI 0.19, 0.90); p = 0.026]. Compared with BR, TAFA + LEN was associated with significantly improved OS [GO29365 comparator trial: HR 0.39 (95% CI 0.18, 0.82); p = 0.014], PFS (pooled data: HR 0.39 (95% CI 0.29, 0.53); p < 0.001], DOR [pooled data: HR 0.35 (95% CI 0.25, 0.50); p < 0.001], and CRR [pooled data: odds ratio 2.43 (95% CI 1.33, 4.41); p = 0.004]. CONCLUSION: In MAIC analyses, treatment with TAFA + LEN for R/R DLBCL provided better OS and PFS outcomes than standard treatment regimens. Validation from large, randomized, phase 3 clinical trials is required to confirm these results.

Tafasitamab in combination with lenalidomide has been recently approved for the treatment of adults with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. There are no clinical trials to directly compare the outcomes of tafasitamab + lenalidomide against other treatments for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. Matching-adjusted indirect comparisons allow an estimate of the relative efficacy of treatments to be derived in the absence of head-to-head comparisons from clinical trials. Matching-adjusted indirect comparisons analyses utilizing data from previously published clinical trials were conducted to compare the combination of tafasitamab + lenalidomide against 3 standard treatments for relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: polatuzumab vedotin + bendamustine + rituximab, bendamustine + rituximab, and rituximab + gemcitabine + oxaliplatin. Compared to those treated with polatuzumab vedotin + bendamustine + rituximab, patients treated with TAFA + LEN maintained their response to treatment for longer and are more likely to experience long-term survival. When compared to those treated with bendamustine + rituximab, patients treated with TAFA + LEN had increased survival, a higher level of response, and maintained their response to treatment for longer. Overall, the findings suggest that treatment with TAFA + LEN for R/R DLBCL is likely to result in significantly better outcomes compared with standard rituximab-based treatments.

Assessment of aortic stiffness in marfan syndrome using two-dimensional and Doppler echocardiography.

BACKGROUND: Extracellular matrix remodeling in the aortic wall results in increased aortic stiffness (AoS) in Marfan syndrome (MFS). Pulsed-wave velocity (PWV) constitutes the best indirect AoS measurement. We aimed to assess PWV in MFS patients using two-dimensional (2D) and Doppler echocardiography. METHODS: Thirty-one MFS patients, (mean age 31 ± 14 years, 16 men) and 31 controls were examined. Blood flow was recorded in the aorta near the aortic valve and immediately after in the descending aorta with simultaneous electrocardiography. PWV was calculated by dividing the distance between the two sample volume positions (D) by the time difference (TD) between the intervals from the QRS start to the ascending and descending aortic flow onsets. B-stiffness was also measured. RESULTS: TD (described in "Methods" section) and, aortic arch length were significantly increased in MFS patients, P < 0.001. Thus, PWV values were significantly higher in patients when compared with controls, 7.20 m/s (5.12, 9.43) versus 4.64 m/s (3.37, 6.24), P < 0.001. B-stiffness was also significantly increased in MFS patients; 5.15 (3.69, 7.65) versus 2.44 (1.82, 3.66), P < 0.001. Multiple regression analysis showed a positive association with MFS diagnosis and age, (P = 0.002 and 0.009, respectively). Reproducibility of PWV measurements was <5%. CONCLUSIONS: AoS was significantly higher in MFS patients as expected. Our data demonstrated that PWV measurements can be performed, in the absence of serious musculoskeletal abnormalities in MFS adults, as part of a cardiac ultrasound scan. This technique can be helpful in diagnosis and management in MFS.

Impaired biventricular deformation in Marfan syndrome: a strain and strain rate study in adult unoperated patients.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the presence of any regional myocardial deformation abnormalities in Marfan syndrome (MFS) and determine the benefits of using advanced echocardiography compared to conventional techniques. BACKGROUND: Myocardial dysfunction in MFS may be caused by extracellular matrix remodeling thus, resulting in uniform reduced functionality. However, increased aortic stiffness may cause segmental ventricular abnormalities. Strain rate imaging (SRI) constitutes a validated technique to assess regional deformation in various clinical conditions. With this in mind, we aimed to investigate biventricular function in MFS using SRI. METHODS: Forty-four MFS patients (mean age 30 ± 12 years, 26 men) and 49 controls without valvular disease were examined using SRI. Ejection fraction (EF) was calculated by the Simpson's biplane method. Biventricular deformation was assessed by measuring strain/strain rate. Strain values were divided by left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic volume to adjust LV deformation for geometry changes providing a strain index (SI). Aortic stiffness was evaluated using the ß-stiffness index. RESULTS: EF (%) was reduced in MFS patients (59 ± 5 vs 72 ± 4, P < 0.001), whereas ß-stiffness was increased (P < 0.001). LV radial and LV and right ventricular (RV) long-axis strain values (%) were reduced in the patient group (70 ± 17 vs 93 ± 10; 19 ± 2 vs 25 ± 2; 30 ± 9 vs 36 ± 8, respectively, P < 0.001). Strain rate measurements were also reduced (P < 0.001). In a multiple regression analysis, MFS diagnosis was negatively associated with LV SI (-0.262 [-0.306, -0.219], P < 0.001). ß-Stiffness was negatively associated with SI obtained from the septum, inferior and anterior walls. ROC analyses demonstrated that SRI, when compared with conventional echocardiography, had higher sensitivity and specificity in predicting biventricular dysfunction in MFS. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed a uniform reduction in biventricular deformation in MFS. These findings suggest that assessment of myocardial function using advanced echocardiographic techniques could be more accurate in MFS patient evaluation than conventional echocardiography alone.

DREAMM-2: Indirect Comparisons of Belantamab Mafodotin vs. Selinexor + Dexamethasone and Standard of Care Treatments in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma.

INTRODUCTION: Single-agent belantamab mafodotin (belamaf; BLENREP) demonstrated deep and durable responses in patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma and ≥ 3 prior lines of therapy, including an immunomodulatory agent, proteasome inhibitor, and anti-CD38 antibody (DREAMM-2; NCT03525678). METHODS: At the time of this study, STORM Part 2, NCT02336815 (selinexor plus low-dose dexamethasone; sel + dex) was systematically identified as the only feasible comparator to the DREAMM-2 cohort. Matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAIC) evaluated efficacy and safety of belamaf (2.5 mg/kg; n = 97) versus sel + dex (80 mg + 20 mg, respectively; n = 123). Populations were weighted for clinically validated effect modifiers and prognostic factors. Outcomes included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), duration of response (DoR), overall response rate (ORR), time to response (TTR), and safety. The relative efficacy of belamaf versus standard of care (SoC) on OS was estimated by a Bucher indirect treatment comparison using the MAIC-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for OS of belamaf (DREAMM-2) versus sel + dex (STORM Part 2) and a HR adjusted for refractoriness to carfilzomib and high-risk cytogenetics of sel + dex (STORM) versus SoC (MAMMOTH). RESULTS: Belamaf demonstrated improved OS (HR 0.53; 95% confidence interval 0.34, 0.83; p = 0.005) and DoR (0.41; 0.21, 0.83; p = 0.013) versus sel + dex. There were no statistically significant differences in ORR, TTR, and PFS. Belamaf had a favorable safety profile for most evaluable hematologic (any-grade, Grade 3-4) and non-hematologic (any-grade) adverse events versus sel + dex. Significantly improved OS was observed with belamaf versus SoC (0.29; 0.16, 0.54; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Single-agent belamaf represents a new treatment option for triple-class refractory patients with RRMM.

Belantamab mafodotin for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma in heavily pretreated patients: a US cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) require several lines of therapy, with typically shorter remission duration with each additional line. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The cost-effectiveness of belantamab mafodotin (belamaf; DREAMM-2; NCT03525678) was compared with selinexor plus dexamethasone (SEL+DEX; STORM Part 2; NCT02336815) among patients with RRMM who have received at least four prior therapies. The base case used a US commercial payer's perspective over a 10-year time horizon. Efficacy data were based on parametric survival analysis of DREAMM-2 and matching-adjusted indirect treatment comparison between DREAMM-2 and STORM Part 2, which assessed relative treatment effects between belamaf and SEL+DEX. Cost inputs included drug treatment, concomitant medications, adverse event management, subsequent treatments, and disease management. RESULTS: Belamaf decreased total treatment costs per patient by $14,267 and increased patient life years by 0.74 and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 0.49 versus SEL+DEX. Patients receiving belamaf accrued 0.12 fewer progression-free life years versus patients on SEL+DEX. CONCLUSIONS: From a US commercial payer's perspective, belamaf had lower costs, and increased QALYs and life-year gain, compared with SEL+DEX. Belamaf is therefore likely to be a cost-effective treatment option for patients with RRMM who have received four or more prior lines of therapy.

Ambient particulate pollution and the world-wide prevalence of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in children: Phase One of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC).

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of ambient particulate matter on variation in childhood prevalence of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema. METHODS: Prevalences of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema obtained in Phase One of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) were matched with city-level estimates of residential PM(10) obtained from a World Bank model. Associations were investigated using binomial regression adjusting for GNP per capita and for clustering within country. For countries with more than one centre, a two stage meta-analysis was carried out. The results were compared with a meta-analysis of published multi-centre studies. RESULTS: Annual concentrations of PM(10) at city level were obtained for 105 ISAAC centres in 51 countries. After controlling for GNP per capita, there was a weak negative association between PM(10) and various outcomes. For severe wheeze in 13-14-year-olds, the OR for a 10 microg/m(3) increase in PM(10) was 0.92 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.00). In 24 countries with more than one centre, most summary estimates for within-country associations were weakly positive. For severe wheeze in 13-14-year-olds, the summary OR for a 10 microg/m(3) increase in PM(10) was 1.01 (0.92 to 1.10). This result was close to a summary OR of 0.99 (0.91 to 1.06) obtained from published multi-centre studies. CONCLUSIONS: Modelled estimates of particulate matter at city level are imprecise and incomplete estimates of personal exposure to ambient air pollutants. Nevertheless, our results together with those of previous multi-centre studies, suggest that urban background PM(10) has little or no association with the prevalence of childhood asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis or eczema either within or between countries.

Biventricular and atrial diastolic function assessment using conventional echocardiography and tissue-Doppler imaging in adults with Marfan syndrome.

AIMS: Previous studies provided evidence about left ventricular systolic and diastolic dysfunction in adults with Marfan syndrome (MFS). However, in the literature, data on right ventricular and bi-atrial diastolic function are limited. We aimed to investigate whether, in the absence of significant valvular disease, diastolic dysfunction is present not only in both ventricles but also in the atrial cavities. METHODS AND RESULTS: Seventy-two adult unoperated MFS patients and 73 controls without significant differences in age, sex, and body surface area from the patient group were studied using two-dimensional, pulsed, and colour-Doppler and tissue-Doppler imaging (TDI). Biventricular early filling measurements were significantly decreased in MFS patients when compared with controls (P < 0.001). Pulsed TDI early filling measurements obtained from five mitral annular regions and over the lateral tricuspid valve corner were significantly reduced in the patient group (P < 0.001). Indices reflecting atrial function at the reservoir, conduit and contractile phases were also significantly decreased in MFS patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated significant biventricular diastolic and biatrial systolic and diastolic dysfunction in MFS patients. Our findings suggest that MFS affects diastolic function independently. Diastolic abnormalities could be attributed to fibrillin-1 deficiency and dysregulation of transforming growth factor-beta activity in the cardiac extracellular matrix.

Assessment-Schedule Matching in Unanchored Indirect Treatment Comparisons of Progression-Free Survival in Cancer Studies.

BACKGROUND: The timing of efficacy-related clinical events recorded at scheduled study visits in clinical trials are interval censored, with the interval duration pre-determined by the study protocol. Events may happen any time during that interval but can only be detected during a planned or unplanned visit. Disease progression in oncology is a notable example where the time to an event is affected by the schedule of visits within a study. This can become a source of bias when studies with varying assessment schedules are used in unanchored comparisons using methods such as matching-adjusted indirect comparisons. OBJECTIVE: We illustrate assessment-time bias (ATB) in a simulation study based on data from a recent study in second-line treatment for locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma, and present a method to adjust for differences in assessment schedule when comparing progression-free survival (PFS) against a competing treatment. METHODS: A multi-state model for death and progression was used to generate simulated death and progression times, from which PFS times were derived. PFS data were also generated for a hypothetical comparator treatment by applying a constant hazard ratio (HR) to the baseline treatment. Simulated PFS times for the two treatments were then aligned to different assessment schedules so that progression events were only observed at set visit times, and the data were analysed to assess the bias and standard error of estimates of HRs between two treatments with and without assessment-schedule matching (ASM). RESULTS: ATB is highly affected by the rate of the event at the first assessment time; in our examples, the bias ranged from 3 to 11% as the event rate increased. The proposed method relies on individual-level data from a study and attempts to adjust the timing of progression events to the comparator's schedule by shifting them forward or backward without altering the patients' actual follow-up time. The method removed the bias almost completely in all scenarios without affecting the precision of estimates of comparative effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the increasing use of unanchored comparative analyses for novel cancer treatments based on single-arm studies, the proposed method offers a relatively simple means of improving the accuracy of relative benefits of treatments on progression times.

Determination of the most appropriate method for extrapolating overall survival data from a placebo-controlled clinical trial of lenvatinib for progressive, radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness models for the treatment of long-term conditions often require information on survival beyond the period of available data. OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to identify a robust and reliable method for the extrapolation of overall survival (OS) in patients with radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer receiving lenvatinib or placebo. METHODS: Data from 392 patients (lenvatinib: 261, placebo: 131) from the SELECT trial are used over a 34-month period of follow-up. A previously published criterion-based approach is employed to ascertain credible estimates of OS beyond the trial data. Parametric models with and without a treatment covariate and piecewise models are used to extrapolate OS, and a holistic approach, where a series of statistical and visual tests are considered collectively, is taken in determining the most appropriate extrapolation model. RESULTS: A piecewise model, in which the Kaplan-Meier survivor function is used over the trial period and an extrapolated tail is based on the Exponential distribution, is identified as the optimal model. CONCLUSION: In the absence of long-term survival estimates from clinical trials, survival estimates often need to be extrapolated from the available data. The use of a systematic method based on a priori determined selection criteria provides a transparent approach and reduces the risk of bias. The extrapolated OS estimates will be used to investigate the potential long-term benefits of lenvatinib in the treatment of radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer patients and populate future cost-effectiveness analyses.

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG): a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Systematic review of published population based surveys to examine the relationship between primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) prevalence and demographic factors. A literature search identified population-based studies with quantitative estimates of POAG prevalence (to October 2014). Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log-odds of POAG was used to examine the effect of age and gender among populations of different geographical and ethnic origins, adjusting for study design factors. Eighty-one studies were included (37 countries, 216 214 participants, 5266 POAG cases). Black populations showed highest POAG prevalence, with 5.2% (95% credible interval (CrI) 3.7%, 7.2%) at 60 years, rising to 12.2% (95% CrI 8.9% to 16.6%) at 80 years. Increase in POAG prevalence per decade of age was greatest among Hispanics (2.31, 95% CrI 2.12, 2.52) and White populations (1.99, 95% CrI 1.86, 2.12), and lowest in East and South Asians (1.48, 95% CrI 1.39, 1.57; 1.56, 95% CrI 1.31, 1.88, respectively). Men were more likely to have POAG than women (1.30, 95% CrI 1.22, 1.41). Older studies had lower POAG prevalence, which was related to the inclusion of intraocular pressure in the glaucoma definition. Studies with visual field data on all participants had a higher POAG prevalence than those with visual field data on a subset. Globally 57.5 million people (95% CI 46.4 to 73.1 million) were affected by POAG in 2015, rising to 65.5 million (95% CrI 52.8, 83.2 million) by 2020. This systematic review provides the most precise estimates of POAG prevalence and shows omitting routine visual field assessment in population surveys may have affected case ascertainment. Our findings will be useful to future studies and healthcare planning.

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of childhood myopia, a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis: implications for aetiology and early prevention.

The aim of this review was to quantify the global variation in childhood myopia prevalence over time taking account of demographic and study design factors. A systematic review identified population-based surveys with estimates of childhood myopia prevalence published by February 2015. Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log odds of myopia was used to examine the association with age, gender, urban versus rural setting and survey year, among populations of different ethnic origins, adjusting for study design factors. 143 published articles (42 countries, 374 349 subjects aged 1-18 years, 74 847 myopia cases) were included. Increase in myopia prevalence with age varied by ethnicity. East Asians showed the highest prevalence, reaching 69% (95% credible intervals (CrI) 61% to 77%) at 15 years of age (86% among Singaporean-Chinese). Blacks in Africa had the lowest prevalence; 5.5% at 15 years (95% CrI 3% to 9%). Time trends in myopia prevalence over the last decade were small in whites, increased by 23% in East Asians, with a weaker increase among South Asians. Children from urban environments have 2.6 times the odds of myopia compared with those from rural environments. In whites and East Asians sex differences emerge at about 9 years of age; by late adolescence girls are twice as likely as boys to be myopic. Marked ethnic differences in age-specific prevalence of myopia exist. Rapid increases in myopia prevalence over time, particularly in East Asians, combined with a universally higher risk of myopia in urban settings, suggest that environmental factors play an important role in myopia development, which may offer scope for prevention.

An observational study to assess if automated diabetic retinopathy image assessment software can replace one or more steps of manual imaging grading and to determine their cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy screening in England involves labour-intensive manual grading of retinal images. Automated retinal image analysis systems (ARIASs) may offer an alternative to manual grading. OBJECTIVES: To determine the screening performance and cost-effectiveness of ARIASs to replace level 1 human graders or pre-screen with ARIASs in the NHS diabetic eye screening programme (DESP). To examine technical issues associated with implementation. DESIGN: Observational retrospective measurement comparison study with a real-time evaluation of technical issues and a decision-analytic model to evaluate cost-effectiveness. SETTING: A NHS DESP. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive diabetic patients who attended a routine annual NHS DESP visit. INTERVENTIONS: Retinal images were manually graded and processed by three ARIASs: iGradingM (version 1.1; originally Medalytix Group Ltd, Manchester, UK, but purchased by Digital Healthcare, Cambridge, UK, at the initiation of the study, purchased in turn by EMIS Health, Leeds, UK, after conclusion of the study), Retmarker (version 0.8.2, Retmarker Ltd, Coimbra, Portugal) and EyeArt (Eyenuk Inc., Woodland Hills, CA, USA). The final manual grade was used as the reference standard. Arbitration on a subset of discrepancies between manual grading and the use of an ARIAS by a reading centre masked to all grading was used to create a reference standard manual grade modified by arbitration. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Screening performance (sensitivity, specificity, false-positive rate and likelihood ratios) and diagnostic accuracy [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] of ARIASs. A secondary analysis explored the influence of camera type and patients' ethnicity, age and sex on screening performance. Economic analysis estimated the cost per appropriate screening outcome identified. RESULTS: A total of 20,258 patients with 102,856 images were entered into the study. The sensitivity point estimates of the ARIASs were as follows: EyeArt 94.7% (95% CI 94.2% to 95.2%) for any retinopathy, 93.8% (95% CI 92.9% to 94.6%) for referable retinopathy and 99.6% (95% CI 97.0% to 99.9%) for proliferative retinopathy; and Retmarker 73.0% (95% CI 72.0% to 74.0%) for any retinopathy, 85.0% (95% CI 83.6% to 86.2%) for referable retinopathy and 97.9% (95% CI 94.9 to 99.1%) for proliferative retinopathy. iGradingM classified all images as either 'disease' or 'ungradable', limiting further iGradingM analysis. The sensitivity and false-positive rates for EyeArt were not affected by ethnicity, sex or camera type but sensitivity declined marginally with increasing patient age. The screening performance of Retmarker appeared to vary with patient's age, ethnicity and camera type. Both EyeArt and Retmarker were cost saving relative to manual grading either as a replacement for level 1 human grading or used prior to level 1 human grading, although the latter was less cost-effective. A threshold analysis testing the highest ARIAS cost per patient before which ARIASs became more expensive per appropriate outcome than human grading, when used to replace level 1 grader, was Retmarker £3.82 and EyeArt £2.71 per patient. LIMITATIONS: The non-randomised study design limited the health economic analysis but the same retinal images were processed by all ARIASs in this measurement comparison study. CONCLUSIONS: Retmarker and EyeArt achieved acceptable sensitivity for referable retinopathy and false-positive rates (compared with human graders as reference standard) and appear to be cost-effective alternatives to a purely manual grading approach. Future work is required to develop technical specifications to optimise deployment and address potential governance issues. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme, a Fight for Sight Grant (Hirsch grant award) and the Department of Health's NIHR Biomedical Research Centre for Ophthalmology at Moorfields Eye Hospital and the University College London Institute of Ophthalmology.