Metal Requirements for Building Electrical Grid Systems of Global Wind Power and Utility-Scale Solar Photovoltaic until 2050.

Wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power form vital parts of the energy transition toward renewable energy systems. The rapid development of these two renewables represents an enormous infrastructure construction task including both power generation and its associated electrical grid systems, which will generate demand for metal resources. However, most research on material demands has focused on their power generation systems (wind turbines and PV panels), and few have studied the associated electrical grid systems. Here, we estimate the global metal demands for electrical grid systems associated with wind and utility-scale PV power by 2050, using dynamic material flow analysis based on International Energy Agency's energy scenarios and the typical engineering parameters of transmission grids. Results show that the associated electrical grids require large quantities of metals: 27-81 Mt of copper cumulatively, followed by 20-67 Mt of steel and 11-31 Mt of aluminum. Electrical grids built for solar PV have the largest metal demand, followed by offshore and onshore wind. Power cables are the most metal-consuming electrical components compared to substations and transformers. We also discuss the decommissioning issue of electrical grids and their recovery potential. This study would deepen the understanding of the nexus between renewable energy, grid infrastructure, and metal resources.

Novel Indicators for the Quantification of Resilience in Critical Material Supply Chains, with a 2010 Rare Earth Crisis Case Study.

We introduce several new resilience metrics for quantifying the resilience of critical material supply chains to disruptions and validate these metrics using the 2010 rare earth element (REE) crisis as a case study. Our method is a novel application of Event Sequence Analysis, supplemented with interviews of actors across the entire supply chain. We discuss resilience mechanisms in quantitative terms-time lags, response speeds, and maximum magnitudes-and in light of cultural differences between Japanese and European corporate practice. This quantification is crucial if resilience is ever to be taken into account in criticality assessments and a step toward determining supply and demand elasticities in the REE supply chain. We find that the REE system showed resilience mainly through substitution and increased non-Chinese primary production, with a distinct role for stockpiling. Overall, annual substitution rates reached 10% of total demand. Non-Chinese primary production ramped up at a speed of 4% of total market volume per year. The compound effect of these mechanisms was that recovery from the 2010 disruption took two years. The supply disruption did not nudge a system toward an appreciable degree of recycling. This finding has important implications for the circular economy concept, indicating that quite a long period of sustained material constraints will be necessary for a production-consumption system to naturally evolve toward a circular configuration.

A Life Cycle Assessment Case Study of Coal-Fired Electricity Generation with Humidity Swing Direct Air Capture of CO2 versus MEA-Based Postcombustion Capture.

Most carbon capture and storage (CCS) envisions capturing CO2 from flue gas. Direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 has hitherto been deemed unviable because of the higher energy associated with capture at low atmospheric concentrations. We present a Life Cycle Assessment of coal-fired electricity generation that compares monoethanolamine (MEA)-based postcombustion capture (PCC) of CO2 with distributed, humidity-swing-based direct air capture (HS-DAC). Given suitable temperature, humidity, wind, and water availability, HS-DAC can be largely passive. Comparing energy requirements of HS-DAC and MEA-PCC, we find that the parasitic load of HS-DAC is less than twice that of MEA-PCC (60-72 kJ/mol versus 33-46 kJ/mol, respectively). We also compare other environmental impacts as a function of net greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation: To achieve the same 73% mitigation as MEA-PCC, HS-DAC would increase nine other environmental impacts by on average 38%, whereas MEA-PCC would increase them by 31%. Powering distributed HS-DAC with photovoltaics (instead of coal) while including recapture of all background GHG, reduces this increase to 18%, hypothetically enabling coal-based electricity with net-zero life-cycle GHG. We conclude that, in suitable geographies, HS-DAC can complement MEA-PCC to enable CO2 capture independent of time and location of emissions and recapture background GHG from fossil-based electricity beyond flue stack emissions.

Framework for resilience in material supply chains, with a case study from the 2010 Rare Earth Crisis.

In 2010, Chinese export restrictions caused the price of the rare earth element neodymium to increase by a factor of 10, only to return to almost normal levels in the following months. This despite the fact that the restrictions were not lifted. The significant price peak shows that this material supply chain was only weakly resistant to a major supply disruption. However, the fact that prices rapidly returned to lower levels implies a certain resilience. With the help of a novel approach, based on resilience theory combined with a material flow analysis (MFA) based representation of the neodymium magnet (NdFeB) supply chain, we show that supply chain resilience is composed of various mechanisms, including (a) resistance, (b) rapidity, and (c) flexibility, that originate from different parts of the supply chain. We make recommendations to improve the capacity of the NdFeB system to deal with future disruptions and discuss potential generalities for the resilience of other material supply chains.

Recycling potential of neodymium: the case of computer hard disk drives.

Neodymium, one of the more critically scarce rare earth metals, is often used in sustainable technologies. In this study, we investigate the potential contribution of neodymium recycling to reducing scarcity in supply, with a case study on computer hard disk drives (HDDs). We first review the literature on neodymium production and recycling potential. From this review, we find that recycling of computer HDDs is currently the most feasible pathway toward large-scale recycling of neodymium, even though HDDs do not represent the largest application of neodymium. We then use a combination of dynamic modeling and empirical experiments to conclude that within the application of NdFeB magnets for HDDs, the potential for loop-closing is significant: up to 57% in 2017. However, compared to the total NdFeB production capacity, the recovery potential from HDDs is relatively small (in the 1-3% range). The distributed nature of neodymium poses a significant challenge for recycling of neodymium.

Energy and climate impacts of producing synthetic hydrocarbon fuels from CO(2).

Within the context of carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization there is an increasing interest in using CO2 as a resource to produce sustainable liquid hydrocarbon fuels. When these fuels are produced by solely using solar energy they are labeled as solar fuels. In the recent discourse on solar fuels intuitive arguments are used to support the prospects of these fuels. This paper takes a quantitative approach to investigate some of the claims made in this discussion. We analyze the life cycle performance of various classes of solar fuel processes using different primary energy and CO2 sources. We compare their efficacy with respect to carbon mitigation with ubiquitous fossil-based fuels and conclude that producing liquid hydrocarbon fuels starting from CO2 by using existing technologies requires much more energy than existing fuels. An improvement in life cycle CO2 emissions is only found when solar energy and atmospheric CO2 are used. Producing fuels from CO2 is a very long-term niche at best, not the panacea suggested in the recent public discourse.

Life cycle inventory of the production of rare earths and the subsequent production of NdFeB rare earth permanent magnets.

Neodymium is one of the more critical rare earth elements with respect to current availability and is most often used in high performance magnets. In this paper, we compare the virgin production route of these magnets with two hypothetical recycling processes in terms of environmental impact. The first recycling process looks at manual dismantling of computer hard disk drives (HDDs) combined with a novel hydrogen based recycling process. The second process assumes HDDs are shredded. Our life cycle assessment is based both on up to date literature and on our own experimental data. Because the production process of neodymium oxide is generic to all rare earths, we also report the life cycle inventory data for the production of rare earth oxides separately. We conclude that recycling of neodymium, especially via manual dismantling, is preferable to primary production, with some environmental indicators showing an order of magnitude improvement. The choice of recycling technology is also important with respect to resource recovery. While manual disassembly allows in principle for all magnetic material to be recovered, shredding leads to very low recovery rates (<10%).

Recycling as a strategy against rare earth element criticality: a systemic evaluation of the potential yield of NdFeB magnet recycling.

End-of-life recycling is promoted by OECD countries as a promising strategy in the current global supply crisis surrounding rare earth elements (REEs) so that dependence on China, the dominant supplier, can be decreased. So far the feasibility and potential yield of REE recycling has not been systematically evaluated. This paper estimates the annual waste flows of neodymium and dysprosium from permanent magnets, the main deployment of these critical REEs, during the 2011-2030 period. The estimates focus on three key permanent magnet waste flows: wind turbines, hybrid and electric vehicles, and hard disk drives (HDDs) in personal computers (PCs). This is a good indication of the end-of-life recycling of neodymium and dysprosium maximum potential yield. Results show that for some time to come, waste flows from permanent magnets will remain small relative to the rapidly growing global REE demand. Policymakers therefore need to be aware that during the next decade recycling is unlikely to substantially contribute to global REE supply security. In the long term, waste flows will increase sharply and will meet a substantial part of the total demand for these metals. Future REE recycling efforts should, therefore, focus on the development of recycling technology and infrastructure.

Life cycle assessment of aquaculture systems-a review of methodologies.

PURPOSE: As capture fishery production has reached its limits and global demand for aquatic products is still increasing, aquaculture has become the world's fastest growing animal production sector. In attempts to evaluate the environmental consequences of this rapid expansion, life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a frequently used method. The present review of current peer-reviewed literature focusing on LCA of aquaculture systems is intended to clarify the methodological choices made, identify possible data gaps, and provide recommendations for future development within this field of research. The results of this review will also serve as a start-up activity of the EU FP7 SEAT (Sustaining Ethical Aquaculture Trade) project, which aims to perform several LCA studies on aquaculture systems in Asia over the next few years. METHODS: From a full analysis of methodology in LCA, six phases were identified to differ the most amongst ten peer-reviewed articles and two PhD theses (functional unit, system boundaries, data and data quality, allocation, impact assessment methods, interpretation methods). Each phase is discussed with regards to differences amongst the studies, current LCA literature followed by recommendations where appropriate. The conclusions and recommendations section reflects on aquaculture-specific scenarios as well as on some more general issues in LCA. RESULTS: Aquaculture LCAs often require large system boundaries, including fisheries, agriculture, and livestock production systems from around the globe. The reviewed studies offered limited coverage of production in developing countries, low-intensity farming practices, and non-finfish species, although most farmed aquatic products originate from a wide range of farming practices in Asia. Apart from different choices of functional unit, system boundaries and impact assessment methods, the studies also differed in their choice of allocation factors and data sourcing. Interpretation of results also differed amongst the studies, and a number of methodological choices were identified influencing the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: Efforts should be made to increase transparency to allow the results to be reproduced, and to construct aquaculture related database(s). More extensive data reporting, including environmental flows, within the greater field of LCA could be achieved, without compromising the focus of studies, by providing supporting information to articles and/or reporting only ID numbers from background databases. More research is needed into aquaculture in Asia based on the latest progress made by the LCA community.