Cardiovascular disease, mortality, and their associations with modifiable risk factors in a multi-national South Asia cohort: a PURE substudy.

AIM: To examine the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), of death, and the comparative effects of 12 common modifiable risk factors for both outcomes in South Asia. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective study of 33 583 individuals 35-70 years of age from India, Bangladesh, or Pakistan. Mean follow-up period was 11 years. Age and sex adjusted incidence of a CVD event and mortality rates were calculated for the overall cohort, by urban or rural location, by sex, and by country. For each outcome, mutually adjusted population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated in 32 611 individuals without prior CVD to compare risks associated with four metabolic risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, high non-HDL cholesterol), four behavioural risk factors (tobacco use, alcohol use, diet quality, physical activity), education, household air pollution, strength, and depression. Hazard ratios were calculated using Cox regression models, and average PAFs were calculated for each risk factor or groups of risk factors. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of death (35.5%) in South Asia. Rural areas had a higher incidence of CVD (5.41 vs. 4.73 per 1000 person-years) and a higher mortality rate (10.27 vs. 6.56 per 1000 person-years) compared with urban areas. Males had a higher incidence of CVD (6.42 vs. 3.91 per 1000 person-years) and a higher mortality rate (10.66 vs. 6.85 per 1000 person-years) compared with females. Between countries, CVD incidence was highest in Bangladesh, while the mortality rate was highest in Pakistan. The modifiable risk factors studied contributed to approximately 64% of the PAF for CVD and 69% of the PAF for death. Largest PAFs for CVD were attributable to hypertension (13.1%), high non-HDL cholesterol (11.1%), diabetes (8.9%), low education (7.7%), abdominal obesity (6.9%), and household air pollution (6.1%). Largest PAFs for death were attributable to low education (18.9%), low strength (14.6%), poor diet (6.4%), diabetes (5.8%), tobacco use (5.8%), and hypertension (5.5%). CONCLUSION: In South Asia, both CVD and deaths are highest in rural areas and among men. Reducing CVD and premature mortality in the region will require investment in policies that target a broad range of health determinants.

Modifiable risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 155 722 individuals from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Global estimates of the effect of common modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality are largely based on data from separate studies, using different methodologies. The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study overcomes these limitations by using similar methods to prospectively measure the effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality across 21 countries (spanning five continents) grouped by different economic levels. METHODS: In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we examined associations for 14 potentially modifiable risk factors with mortality and cardiovascular disease in 155 722 participants without a prior history of cardiovascular disease from 21 high-income, middle-income, or low-income countries (HICs, MICs, or LICs). The primary outcomes for this paper were composites of cardiovascular disease events (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) and mortality. We describe the prevalence, hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with a cluster of behavioural factors (ie, tobacco use, alcohol, diet, physical activity, and sodium intake), metabolic factors (ie, lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity), socioeconomic and psychosocial factors (ie, education, symptoms of depression), grip strength, and household and ambient pollution. Associations between risk factors and the outcomes were established using multivariable Cox frailty models and using PAFs for the entire cohort, and also by countries grouped by income level. Associations are presented as HRs and PAFs with 95% CIs. FINDINGS: Between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, 155 722 participants were enrolled and followed up for measurement of risk factors. 17 249 (11·1%) participants were from HICs, 102 680 (65·9%) were from MICs, and 35 793 (23·0%) from LICs. Approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease cases and deaths in the overall study population were attributed to modifiable risk factors. Metabolic factors were the predominant risk factors for cardiovascular disease (41·2% of the PAF), with hypertension being the largest (22·3% of the PAF). As a cluster, behavioural risk factors contributed most to deaths (26·3% of the PAF), although the single largest risk factor was a low education level (12·5% of the PAF). Ambient air pollution was associated with 13·9% of the PAF for cardiovascular disease, although different statistical methods were used for this analysis. In MICs and LICs, household air pollution, poor diet, low education, and low grip strength had stronger effects on cardiovascular disease or mortality than in HICs. INTERPRETATION: Most cardiovascular disease cases and deaths can be attributed to a small number of common, modifiable risk factors. While some factors have extensive global effects (eg, hypertension and education), others (eg, household air pollution and poor diet) vary by a country's economic level. Health policies should focus on risk factors that have the greatest effects on averting cardiovascular disease and death globally, with additional emphasis on risk factors of greatest importance in specific groups of countries. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Plasma leptin level mirrors metabolome alterations in young adults.

INTRODUCTION: Leptin is known to regulate pathways of energy metabolism, reproduction, and control appetite. Whether plasma leptin levels reflect changes in metabolites of these pathways is unknown. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to find whether there is an association between leptin levels and levels of metabolites of energy and hormone metabolism. METHODS: We performed an untargeted metabolomics analysis of plasma from 110 healthy adults (men: women = 1:1; aged 18-40 years), using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Blood samples were collected from all the study subjects in the fasting state. Clinical features and markers of obesity and Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were assessed in all. The association between levels of metabolites and clinical and biochemical parameters was identified using the multivariable-adjusted linear regression model and PLS-DA analysis. RESULTS: The leptin level was found to have a significant association with a substantial number of metabolites in women and men. Leptin level was positively associated with glycocholic acid and arachidic acid, metabolites related to energy metabolisms, pregnanediol-3-glucuronide, a metabolite of progesterone metabolism, and quercetin 3'-sulfate, a diet-derived metabolite. Leptin level was negatively associated with ponasteroside A and barringtogenol C levels. Leptin level was positively correlated with adiponectin and negatively with total calorie intake and levels of triglyceride and very-low-density lipoprotein. Leptin levels were associated with lipid and sex hormone metabolism in women, while metabolites involved in amino acid metabolism were correlated to leptin in men. CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that leptin level reflects metabolome alterations and hence could be a useful marker to detect early changes in energy and hormone metabolisms.

Variations in risks from smoking between high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: an analysis of data from 179 000 participants from 63 countries.

BACKGROUND: Separate studies suggest that the risks from smoking might vary between high-income (HICs), middle-income (MICs), and low-income (LICs) countries, but this has not yet been systematically examined within a single study using standardised approaches. We examined the variations in risks from smoking across different country income groups and some of their potential reasons. METHODS: We analysed data from 134 909 participants from 21 countries followed up for a median of 11·3 years in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) cohort study; 9711 participants with myocardial infarction and 11 362 controls from 52 countries in the INTERHEART case-control study; and 11 580 participants with stroke and 11 331 controls from 32 countries in the INTERSTROKE case-control study. In PURE, all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular disease, cancers, respiratory diseases, and their composite were the primary outcomes for this analysis. Biochemical verification of urinary total nicotine equivalent was done in a substudy of 1000 participants in PURE. FINDINGS: In PURE, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for the composite outcome in current smokers (vs never smokers) was higher in HICs (HR 1·87, 95% CI 1·65-2·12) than in MICs (1·41, 1·34-1·49) and LICs (1·35, 1·25-1·46; interaction p<0·0001). Similar patterns were observed for each component of the composite outcome in PURE, myocardial infarction in INTERHEART, and stroke in INTERSTROKE. The median levels of tar, nicotine, and carbon monoxide displayed on the cigarette packs from PURE HICs were higher than those on the packs from MICs. In PURE, the proportion of never smokers reporting high second-hand smoke exposure (≥1 times/day) was 6·3% in HICs, 23·2% in MICs, and 14·0% in LICs. The adjusted geometric mean total nicotine equivalent was higher among current smokers in HICs (47·2 µM) than in MICs (31·1 µM) and LICs (25·2 µM; ANCOVA p<0·0001). By contrast, it was higher among never smokers in LICs (18·8 µM) and MICs (11·3 µM) than in HICs (5·0 µM; ANCOVA p=0·0001). INTERPRETATION: The variations in risks from smoking between country income groups are probably related to the higher exposure of tobacco-derived toxicants among smokers in HICs and higher rates of high second-hand smoke exposure among never smokers in MICs and LICs. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Postprandial Metabolism is Impaired in Overweight Normoglycemic Young Adults without Family History of Diabetes.

While the risk factors for Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are known, early predictive markers of transition from normal to a prediabetes state are unidentified. We studied the basal metabolism and metabolic response to a mixed-meal challenge in 110 healthy subjects in the age group of 18 to 40 years (Male:Female = 1:1); grouped into first degree relatives of patients with T2DM (n = 30), those with a body mass index >23 kg/m2 but <30 kg/m2 (n = 30), those with prediabetes (n = 20) and normal controls (n = 30). We performed an untargeted metabolomics analysis of plasma and related that with clinical and biochemical parameters, markers of inflammation, and insulin sensitivity. Similar to prediabetes subjects, overweight subjects had insulin resistance and significantly elevated levels of C-peptide, adiponectin and glucagon and lower level of ghrelin. Metabolites such as MG(22:2(13Z, 16Z)/0:0/0:0) and LysoPC (15:0) were reduced in overweight and prediabetes subjects. Insulin sensitivity was significantly lower in men. Fasting levels of uric acid, xanthine, and glycochenodeoxycholic-3-glucuronide were elevated in men. However, both lysophospholipids and antioxidant defense metabolites were higher in women. Impaired postprandial metabolism and insulin sensitivity in overweight normoglycemic young adults indicates a risk of developing hyperglycemia. Our results also indicate a higher risk of diabetes in young men.

Association of Symptoms of Depression With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.

Importance: Depression is associated with incidence of and premature death from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer in high-income countries, but it is not known whether this is true in low- and middle-income countries and in urban areas, where most people with depression now live. Objective: To identify any associations between depressive symptoms and incident CVD and all-cause mortality in countries at different levels of economic development and in urban and rural areas. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, population-based cohort study was conducted between January 2005 and June 2019 (median follow-up, 9.3 years) and included 370 urban and 314 rural communities from 21 economically diverse countries on 5 continents. Eligible participants aged 35 to 70 years were enrolled. Analysis began February 2018 and ended September 2019. Exposures: Four or more self-reported depressive symptoms from the Short-Form Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident CVD, all-cause mortality, and a combined measure of either incident CVD or all-cause mortality. Results: Of 145 862 participants, 61 235 (58%) were male and the mean (SD) age was 50.05 (9.7) years. Of those, 15 983 (11%) reported 4 or more depressive symptoms at baseline. Depression was associated with incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05-1.24), all-cause mortality (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11-1.25), the combined CVD/mortality outcome (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.11-1.24), myocardial infarction (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.10-1.37), and noncardiovascular death (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.13-1.31) in multivariable models. The risk of the combined outcome increased progressively with number of symptoms, being highest in those with 7 symptoms (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.12-1.37) and lowest with 1 symptom (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.92 -1.19; P for trend < .001). The associations between having 4 or more depressive symptoms and the combined outcome were similar in 7 different geographical regions and in countries at all economic levels but were stronger in urban (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.13-1.34) compared with rural (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19) communities (P for interaction = .001) and in men (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.13-1.38) compared with women (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.06-1.23; P for interaction < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this large, population-based cohort study, adults with depressive symptoms were associated with having increased risk of incident CVD and mortality in economically diverse settings, especially in urban areas. Improving understanding and awareness of these physical health risks should be prioritized as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the burden of noncommunicable diseases worldwide.

The household economic burden of non-communicable diseases in 18 countries.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally. In 2014, the United Nations committed to reducing premature mortality from NCDs, including by reducing the burden of healthcare costs. Since 2014, the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study has been collecting health expenditure data from households with NCDs in 18 countries. Methods: Using data from the PURE Study, we estimated risk of catastrophic health spending and impoverishment among households with at least one person with NCDs (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, cancer and respiratory diseases; n=17 435), with hypertension only (a leading risk factor for NCDs; n=11 831) or with neither (n=22 654) by country income group: high-income countries (Canada and Sweden), upper middle income countries (UMICs: Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa and Turkey), lower middle income countries (LMICs: the Philippines, Colombia, India, Iran and the Occupied Palestinian Territory) and low-income countries (LICs: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and Tanzania) and China. Results: The prevalence of catastrophic spending and impoverishment is highest among households with NCDs in LMICs and China. After adjusting for covariates that might drive health expenditure, the absolute risk of catastrophic spending is higher in households with NCDs compared with no NCDs in LMICs (risk difference=1.71%; 95% CI 0.75 to 2.67), UMICs (0.82%; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.27) and China (7.52%; 95% CI 5.88 to 9.16). A similar pattern is observed in UMICs and China for impoverishment. A high proportion of those with NCDs in LICs, especially women (38.7% compared with 12.6% in men), reported not taking medication due to costs. Conclusions: Our findings show that financial protection from healthcare costs for people with NCDs is inadequate, particularly in LMICs and China. While the burden of NCD care may appear greatest in LMICs and China, the burden in LICs may be masked by care foregone due to costs. The high proportion of women reporting foregone care due to cost may in part explain gender inequality in treatment of NCDs.

Association of Household Wealth Index, Educational Status, and Social Capital with Hypertension Awareness, Treatment, and Control in South Asia.

OBJECTIVE: Hypertension control rates are low in South Asia. To determine association of measures of socioeconomic status (wealth, education, and social capital) with hypertension awareness, treatment, and control among urban and rural subjects in these countries we performed the present study. METHODS: We enrolled 33,423 subjects aged 35-70 years (women 56%, rural 53%, low-education status 51%, low household wealth 25%, low-social capital 33%) in 150 communities in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh during 2003-2009. Prevalence of hypertension and its awareness, treatment, and control status and their association with wealth, education, and social capital were determined. RESULTS: Age-, sex-, and location-adjusted prevalence of hypertension in men was 31.5% (23.9-40.2%) and women was 32.6% (24.9-41.5%) with variations in prevalence across study sites (urban 30-56%, rural 11-43%). Prevalence was significantly greater in urban locations, older subjects, and participants with more wealth, greater education, and lower social capital index. Hypertension awareness was in 40.4% (urban 45.9, rural 32.5), treatment in 31.9% (urban 37.6, rural 23.6), and control in 12.9% (urban 15.4, rural 9.3). Control was lower in men and younger subjects. Hypertension awareness, treatment, and control were significantly lower, respectively, in lowest vs. highest wealth index tertile (26.2 vs. 50.6%, 16.9 vs. 44.0%, and 6.9 vs. 17.3%, P < 0.001) and lowest vs. highest educational status tertile (31.2 vs. 48.4%, 21.8 vs. 42.1%, and 7.8 vs. 19.2%, P < 0.001) while insignificant differences were observed in lowest vs. highest social capital index (38.2 vs. 36.1%, 35.1 vs. 27.8%, and 12.5 vs. 9.1%). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows low hypertension awareness, treatment, and control in South Asia. Lower wealth and educational status are important in low hypertension awareness, treatment, and control.

Utilization of maternal health care services in post-conflict Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Despite a decade-long armed conflict in Nepal, the country made progress in reducing maternal mortality and is on its way to achieve the Millennium Development Goal Five. This study aimed to assess the degree of the utilization of maternal health care services during and after the armed conflict in Nepal. METHODS: This study is based on Nepal Demographic and Health Survey data 2006 and 2011. The units of analysis were women who had given birth to at least one child in the past 5 years preceding the survey. First, we compared the utilization of maternal health care services of 2006 with that of 2011. Second, we merged the two data sets and applied logistic regression to distinguish whether the utilization of maternal health care services had improved after the peace process 2006 was underway. RESULTS: In 2011, 85% of the women sought antenatal care at least once. Skilled health workers for delivery care assisted 36.1% of the women, and 46% of the women attended postnatal care visit at least once. These figures were 70%, 18.7%, and 16%, respectively, in 2006. Similarly, women were more likely to utilize antenatal care at least once (odds ratio [OR] =2.18, confidence interval [CI] =1.95-2.43), skilled care at birth (OR =2.58, CI =2.36-2.81), and postnatal care at least once (OR =4.13, CI =3.75-4.50) in 2011. CONCLUSION: The utilization of maternal health care services tended to increase continuously during both the armed conflict and the post-conflict period in Nepal. However, the increasing proportion of the utilization was higher after the Comprehensive Peace Process Agreement 2006.