Four-factor risk score for the prediction of interstitial lung disease in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is one of the commonest systemic complications in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and carries a significant morbidity and mortality burden. We aimed to identify key variables to risk-stratify RA patients in order to identify those at increased risk of developing ILD. We propose a probability score based on the identification of these variables. METHODS: A retrospective, multicentre study using clinical data collected between 2010 and 2020, across 20 centres. RESULTS: A total of 430 RA (210 with ILD confirmed on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT)) patients were evaluated. We explored several independent variables for the risk of developing ILD in RA and found that the key significant variables were smoking (past or present), older age and positive rheumatoid factor/anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to form a scoring system for categorising patients into high and low risk on a scale of 0-9 points and a cut-off score of 5, based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76 (CI 95% 0.71-0.82). This yielded a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 58%. High-risk patients should be considered for investigation with HRCT and monitored closely. CONCLUSION: We have proposed a new model for identifying RA patients at risk of developing ILD. This approach identified four simple clinical variables: age, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies, Rheumatoid factor and smoking, which allowed development of a predictive scoring system for the presence of ILD in patients with RA.

Long-term outcomes in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Review of data from the 'Basildon Inflammatory Arthritis Cohort'.

Objective: The aim was to determine outcomes in RA with long-term analysis of a real-world inception cohort. Methods: We carried out a retrospective cohort analysis of 184 patients with a new diagnosis of RA (ACR/EULAR 2010 criteria) between 2009 and 2013. Measured parameters included patient demographics, serological markers, disease activity (DAS28-CRP), treatment regimen, development of new co-morbidities and all-cause mortality. Results: Complete data were available for analysis in 171 patients, 60 men and 111 women, with a median age of 57 years and median follow-up time of 7.5 years. DAS-28 remission was achieved in 73%, with the majority continuing to require pharmacological therapy. Drug-free remission was achieved in 11.7%, whereas 3.5% remained refractory to treatment. Analysis of new co-morbidities revealed malignancy in 12.9% (n = 22), with lung cancer having the highest incidence (n = 9). Cardiovascular, pulmonary and cerebrovascular disease developed in 11.1% (n = 19), 5.8% (n = 10) and 5.3% (n = 9), respectively. The crude mortality rate was 19.3% (33 of 171), incidence mortality rate 174 per 10 000 person-years of follow-up and standardized mortality ratio 1.57 (95% CI 1.10, 2.17). More deaths were recorded from underlying malignancy [7.6% (n = 13)] than with cardiovascular disease [4.7% (n = 8)]. The majority of deaths occurred ≥5 years after initial diagnosis (67%). Conclusion: Long-term analysis reveals that mortality in RA remains significantly elevated compared with the general population. Additionally, this real-world study underlines malignancy as the predominant cause of morbidity and mortality in RA.