The contribution of insects to global forest deadwood decomposition.

The amount of carbon stored in deadwood is equivalent to about 8 per cent of the global forest carbon stocks1. The decomposition of deadwood is largely governed by climate2-5 with decomposer groups-such as microorganisms and insects-contributing to variations in the decomposition rates2,6,7. At the global scale, the contribution of insects to the decomposition of deadwood and carbon release remains poorly understood7. Here we present a field experiment of wood decomposition across 55 forest sites and 6 continents. We find that the deadwood decomposition rates increase with temperature, and the strongest temperature effect is found at high precipitation levels. Precipitation affects the decomposition rates negatively at low temperatures and positively at high temperatures. As a net effect-including the direct consumption by insects and indirect effects through interactions with microorganisms-insects accelerate the decomposition in tropical forests (3.9% median mass loss per year). In temperate and boreal forests, we find weak positive and negative effects with a median mass loss of 0.9 per cent and -0.1 per cent per year, respectively. Furthermore, we apply the experimentally derived decomposition function to a global map of deadwood carbon synthesized from empirical and remote-sensing data, obtaining an estimate of 10.9 ± 3.2 petagram of carbon per year released from deadwood globally, with 93 per cent originating from tropical forests. Globally, the net effect of insects may account for 29 per cent of the carbon flux from deadwood, which suggests a functional importance of insects in the decomposition of deadwood and the carbon cycle.

Temporal dynamics of soil fungi in a pyrodiverse dry-sclerophyll forest.

Fire is a major evolutionary and ecological driver that shapes biodiversity in forests. While above-ground community responses to fire have been well-documented, those below-ground are much less understood. However, below-ground communities, including fungi, play key roles in forests and facilitate the recovery of other organisms after fire. Here, we used internal transcribed spacer (ITS) meta-barcoding data from forests with three different times since fire [short (3 years), medium (13-19 years) and long (>26 years)] to characterize the temporal responses of soil fungal communities across functional groups, ectomycorrhizal exploration strategies and inter-guild associations. Our findings indicate that fire effects on fungal communities are strongest in the short to medium term, with clear distinctions between communities in forests with a short time (3 years) since fire, a medium time (13-19 years) and a long time (>26 years) since fire. Ectomycorrhizal fungi were disproportionately impacted by fire relative to saprotrophs, but the direction of the response varied depending on morphological structures and exploration strategies. For instance, short-distance ectomycorrhizal fungi increased with recent fire, while medium-distance (fringe) ectomycorrhizal fungi decreased. Further, we detected strong, negative inter-guild associations between ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic fungi but only at medium and long times since fire. Given the functional significance of fungi, the temporal changes in fungal composition, inter-guild associations and functional groups after fire demonstrated in our study may have functional implications that require adaptive management to curtail.

New spatial analyses of Australian wildfires highlight the need for new fire, resource, and conservation policies.

Extensive and recurrent severe wildfires present complex challenges for policy makers. This is highlighted by extensive wildfires around the globe, ranging from western North America and Europe to the Amazon and Arctic, and, most recently, the 2019-2020 fires in eastern Australia. In many jurisdictions, discussions after significant losses of life, property, and vegetation are sometimes conducted in the absence of nuanced debates about key aspects of climate, land, and resource management policy. Improved insights that have significant implications for policies and management can be derived from spatial and temporal analyses of fires. Here, we demonstrate the importance of such analyses using a case study of large-scale, recurrent severe wildfires over the past two decades in the Australian state of Victoria. We overlaid the location of current and past fires with ecosystem types, land use, and conservation values. Our analyses revealed 1) the large spatial extent of current fires, 2) the extensive and frequent reburning of recently and previously fire-damaged areas, 3) the magnitude of resource loss for industries such as timber and pulplog production, and 4) major impacts on high conservation value areas and biodiversity. These analyses contain evidence to support policy reforms that alter the mode of forest management, target the protection of key natural assets including unburnt areas, manage repeatedly damaged and potentially collapsed ecosystems, and expand the conservation estate. Our mapping approach should have applicability to other environments subject to large-scale fires, although the particular details of policy reforms would be jurisdiction, ecosystem, and context specific.

Disturbance alters the forest soil microbiome.

Billions of microorganisms perform critical below-ground functions in all terrestrial ecosystems. While largely invisible to the naked eye, they support all higher lifeforms, form symbiotic relationships with ~90% of terrestrial plant species, stabilize soils, and facilitate biogeochemical cycles. Global increases in the frequency of disturbances are driving major changes in the structure and function of forests. However, despite their functional significance, the disturbance responses of forest microbial communities are poorly understood. Here, we explore the influence of disturbance on the soil microbiome (archaea, fungi and bacteria) of some of the world's tallest and most carbon-dense forests, the Mountain Ash forests of south-eastern Australia. From 80 sites, we identified 23,277 and 19,056 microbial operational taxonomic units from the 0-10 cm and 20-30 cm depths of soil respectively. From this extensive data set, we found the diversity and composition of these often cryptic communities has been altered by human and natural disturbance events. For instance, the diversity of ectomycorrhizal fungi declined with clearcut logging, the diversity of archaea declined with salvage logging, and bacterial diversity and overall microbial diversity declined with the number of fires. Moreover, we identified key associations between edaphic (soil properties), environmental (slope, elevation) and spatial variables and the composition of all microbial communities. Specifically, we found that soil pH, manganese, magnesium, phosphorus, iron and nitrate were associated with the composition of all microbial communities. In a period of widespread degradation of global forest ecosystems, our findings provide an important and timely insight into the disturbance responses of soil microbial communities, which may influence key ecological functions.

Fencing farm dams to exclude livestock halves methane emissions and improves water quality.

Agricultural practices have created tens of millions of small artificial water bodies ("farm dams" or "agricultural ponds") to provide water for domestic livestock worldwide. Among freshwater ecosystems, farm dams have some of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per m2 due to fertilizer and manure run-off boosting methane production-an extremely potent GHG. However, management strategies to mitigate the substantial emissions from millions of farm dams remain unexplored. We tested the hypothesis that installing fences to exclude livestock could reduce nutrients, improve water quality, and lower aquatic GHG emissions. We established a large-scale experiment spanning 400 km across south-eastern Australia where we compared unfenced (N = 33) and fenced farm dams (N = 31) within 17 livestock farms. Fenced farm dams recorded 32% less dissolved nitrogen, 39% less dissolved phosphorus, 22% more dissolved oxygen, and produced 56% less diffusive methane emissions than unfenced dams. We found no effect of farm dam management on diffusive carbon dioxide emissions and on the organic carbon in the soil. Dissolved oxygen was the most important variable explaining changes in carbon fluxes across dams, whereby doubling dissolved oxygen from 5 to 10 mg L-1 led to a 74% decrease in methane fluxes, a 124% decrease in carbon dioxide fluxes, and a 96% decrease in CO2 -eq (CH4 + CO2 ) fluxes. Dams with very high dissolved oxygen (>10 mg L-1 ) showed a switch from positive to negative CO2 -eq. (CO2 + CH4 ) fluxes (i.e., negative radiative balance), indicating a positive contribution to reduce atmospheric warming. Our results demonstrate that simple management actions can dramatically improve water quality and decrease methane emissions while contributing to more productive and sustainable farming.

Age and spatial distribution of the world's oldest trees.

Extremely old trees have important roles in providing insights about historical climatic events and supporting cultural values. Yet there has been limited work on the global distribution and conservation of these trees. We extracted information on 197,855 tree cores at 4,854 sites, and combined it with other tree age data from a further 156 sites, to determine the age of the world's oldest trees and quantify the factors influencing their global distribution. We found that extremely old trees >1,000 years are rare. Among 30 individual trees that exceeded 2,000 years old, 27 occurred in high mountains. Our model suggests that many of the existing oldest trees occur in high-elevation, cold and arid mountains with limited human disturbance. This pattern is markedly different from that of the tallest trees, which are more likely to occur in more mesic and productive locations. Global warming and expansion of human activities may induce rapid population declines of extremely old trees. New strategies, including targeted establishment of conservation reserves in remote regions, especially those in western Table 1 parts of China and USA, are required to protect these trees. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Predicting landscape-scale biodiversity recovery by natural tropical forest regrowth.

Natural forest regrowth is a cost-effective, nature-based solution for biodiversity recovery, yet different socioenvironmental factors can lead to variable outcomes. A critical knowledge gap in forest restoration planning is how to predict where natural forest regrowth is likely to lead to high levels of biodiversity recovery, which is an indicator of conservation value and the potential provisioning of diverse ecosystem services. We sought to predict and map landscape-scale recovery of species richness and total abundance of vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in tropical and subtropical second-growth forests to inform spatial restoration planning. First, we conducted a global meta-analysis to quantify the extent to which recovery of species richness and total abundance in second-growth forests deviated from biodiversity values in reference old-growth forests in the same landscape. Second, we employed a machine-learning algorithm and a comprehensive set of socioenvironmental factors to spatially predict landscape-scale deviation and map it. Models explained on average 34% of observed variance in recovery (range 9-51%). Landscape-scale biodiversity recovery in second-growth forests was spatially predicted based on socioenvironmental landscape factors (human demography, land use and cover, anthropogenic and natural disturbance, ecosystem productivity, and topography and soil chemistry); was significantly higher for species richness than for total abundance for vertebrates (median range-adjusted predicted deviation 0.09 vs. 0.34) and invertebrates (0.2 vs. 0.35) but not for plants (which showed a similar recovery for both metrics [0.24 vs. 0.25]); and was positively correlated for total abundance of plant and vertebrate species (Pearson r = 0.45, p = 0.001). Our approach can help identify tropical and subtropical forest landscapes with high potential for biodiversity recovery through natural forest regrowth.

Predicción de la Recuperación de la Biodiversidad a Escala de Paisaje según la Regeneración Natural del Bosque Tropical Resumen La regeneración natural del bosque es una solución rentable para la recuperación de la biodiversidad basada en la naturaleza, sin embargo, los diferentes factores socioambientales pueden derivar en resultados variables. Cómo predecir la ubicación en donde la regeneración natural del bosque recuperará los niveles de biodiversidad, los cuales son un indicador del valor de la conservación y un suministro potencial de diferentes servicios ambientales, es un vacío de conocimiento importante en la planeación de la restauración forestal. Buscamos predecir y mapear la recuperación a escala de paisaje de la riqueza de especies y la abundancia total de vertebrados, invertebrados y plantas en bosques tropicales y subtropicales de segundo crecimiento para guiar la planeación de la restauración. Primero, realizamos un metaanálisis mundial para cuantificar la medida a la que se desvió la recuperación de la riqueza y la abundancia total de especies en los bosques de segundo crecimiento de los valores de biodiversidad en los bosques antiguos referenciales en el mismo paisaje. Después, utilizamos un algoritmo de aprendizaje automático y un conjunto integral de factores socioambientales para predecir espacialmente la desviación a escala de paisaje para después mapearla. Los modelos explicaron en promedio el 34% de la varianza observada en la recuperación (rango de 9-51%). La recuperación de la biodiversidad a escala de paisaje en los bosques de segundo crecimiento pudo predecirse espacialmente con base en los factores socioambientales del paisaje (demografía humana, uso y cobertura del suelo, alteraciones naturales y antropogénicas, productividad del ecosistema, tipo de topografía y de suelo); fue significativamente más alta para la riqueza de especies que para la abundancia total de vertebrados (desviación media pronosticada ajustada al rango de 0.09 versus 0.34) e invertebrados (0.2 versus 0.35) pero no para las plantas (las cuales mostraron una recuperación similar para ambas medidas [0.24 versus 0.25]); y tuvo una correlación positiva para la abundancia de especies de plantas y vertebrados (Pearson r =0.45, p=0.001). Nuestra estrategia puede ayudar a identificar los paisajes de bosques tropicales y subtropicales con un potencial alto para la recuperación de la biodiversidad por medio de la regeneración natural del bosque.

Eight things you should never do in a monitoring program: an Australian perspective.

Monitoring is critical to gauge the effect of environmental management interventions as well as to measure the effects of human disturbances such as climate change. Recognition of the critical need for monitoring means that, at irregular intervals, recommendations are made for new government-instigated programs or to revamp existing ones. Using insights from past well-intentioned (but sadly also often failed) attempts to establish and maintain government-instigated monitoring programs in Australia, we outline eight things that should never be done in environmental monitoring programs (if they aim to be useful). These are the following: (1) Never commence a new environmental management initiative without also committing to a monitoring program. (2) Never start a monitoring program without clear questions. (3) Never implement a monitoring program without first doing a proper experimental design. (4) Never ignore the importance of matching the purpose and objectives of a monitoring program to the design of that program. (5) Never change the way you monitor something without ensuring new methods can be calibrated with the old ones. (6) Never try to monitor everything. (7) Never collect data without planning to curate and report on it. (8) If possible, avoid starting a monitoring program without the necessary resources secured. To balance our "nevers", we provide a checklist of actions that will increase the chances a monitoring program will actually measure the effectiveness of environmental management. Scientists and resource management practitioners need to be part of a stronger narrative for, and key participants in, well-designed, implemented, and maintained government-led monitoring programs. We argue that monitoring programs should be mandated in threatened species conservation programs and all new environmental management initiatives.

Direct and indirect disturbance impacts in forests.

Human and natural disturbances are key drivers of change in forest ecosystems. Yet, the direct and indirect mechanisms which underpin these changes remain poorly understood at the ecosystem level. Here, using structural equation modelling across a 150+ year chronosequence, we disentangle the direct and indirect effects of major disturbances in a temperate forest ecosystem. We show that wildfires, logging and post-fire (salvage) logging can affect plant and microbial communities and abiotic soil properties both directly and indirectly through plant-soil-microbial interactions. We quantified 68 direct and indirect disturbance effects across these components, with the majority resulting in ecosystem-wide adverse effects. Indirect disturbance effects accounted for 43% of total disturbance effects, with some amplifying or partially mitigating direct disturbance effects. Overall, human disturbances were associated with more negative effects than natural disturbances. Our analyses provide novel insights into the multifaceted dynamics of forest disturbances and the mechanisms which underpin their relative impacts.

Scale-dependent signatures of local adaptation in a foundation tree species.

Understanding local adaptation is critical for conservation management under rapidly changing environmental conditions. Local adaptation inferred from genotype-environment associations may show different genomic patterns depending on the spatial scale of sampling, due to differences in the slope of environmental gradients and the level of gene flow. We compared signatures of local adaptation across the genome of mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) at two spatial scales: A species-wide data set and a topographically-complex subregional data set. We genotyped 367 individual trees at over 3700 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), quantified patterns of spatial genetic structure among populations, and used two analytical methods to identify loci associated with at least one of three environmental variables at each spatial scale. Together, the analyses identified 549 potentially adaptive SNPs at the subregion scale, and 435 SNPs at the range-wide scale. A total of 39 genic or near-genic SNPs, associated with 28 genes, were identified at both spatial scales, although no SNP was identified by both methods at both scales. We observed that nongenic regions had significantly higher homozygote excess than genic regions, possibly due to selective elimination of inbred genotypes during stand development. Our results suggest that strong environmental selection occurs in mountain ash, and that the identification of putatively adaptive loci can differ substantially depending on the spatial scale of analyses. We also highlight the importance of multiple adaptive genetic architectures for understanding patterns of local adaptation across large heterogenous landscapes, with comparison of putatively adaptive loci among spatial scales providing crucial insights into the process of adaptation.

Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic.

Globally, collapse of ecosystems-potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function-imperils biodiversity, human health and well-being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2 , from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic 'presses' and/or acute 'pulses', drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5-17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles-abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three-step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

Ongoing declines of woodland birds: Are restoration plantings making a difference?

Woodland birds are a species assemblage of conservation concern, and their persistence in fragmented agricultural landscapes is dependent on both the preservation of existing woodland remnants and the implementation of restoration plantings. However, little is known about the habitat-use and persistence of birds in fragmented agricultural landscapes. We present a detailed, population-oriented study of woodland birds in temperate eucalypt woodland restoration plantings and remnant woodland patches in the South-west Slopes bioregion of New South Wales, Australia. First, we undertook a 3-yr mark-recapture project to assess annual survival and site fidelity in restoration plantings and woodland remnants. We supplemented our recapture efforts with resightings of color-banded individuals. Second, we tracked individual birds of two species, Superb Fairywren (Malurus cyaneus) and Willie Wagtail (Rhipidura leucophrys), and documented snapshots of their home ranges and movement patterns during the breeding season. Annual survival in the woodland bird assemblage was lower than expected (51%). Home ranges of the Superb Fairywren were positively correlated with patch size, and were constrained by patch edges in linear sites. Superb Fairywrens and Willie Wagtails were more likely to travel longer distances between substrates while foraging in linear sites. Willie Wagtails engaged in significant gap-crossing (up to 400 m) between adjacent habitat patches. Our findings indicate that (1) patch isolation and certain patch configurations place resident birds at an energetic disadvantage, and (2) in our study area, woodland bird populations are continuing to decline. We recommend landscape-scale habitat restoration programs aim to address ongoing population declines. Studies such as ours conducted over longer time periods would provide a deeper understanding of habitat use and population processes of woodland birds in fragmented agricultural landscapes.

Hidden collapse is driven by fire and logging in a socioecological forest ecosystem.

Increasing numbers of ecosystems globally are at risk of collapse. However, most descriptions of terrestrial ecosystem collapse are post hoc with few empirically based examples of ecosystems in the process of collapse. This limits learning about collapse and impedes development of effective early-warning indicators. Based on multidecadal and multifaceted monitoring, we present evidence that the Australian mainland Mountain Ash ecosystem is collapsing. Collapse is indicated by marked changes in ecosystem condition, particularly the rapid decline in populations of keystone ecosystem structures. There also has been significant decline in biodiversity strongly associated with these structures and disruptions of key ecosystem processes. In documenting the decline of the Mountain Ash ecosystem, we uncovered evidence of hidden collapse. This is where an ecosystem superficially appears to be relatively intact, but a prolonged period of decline coupled with long lag times for recovery of dominant ecosystem components mean that collapse is almost inevitable. In ecosystems susceptible to hidden collapse, management interventions will be required decades earlier than currently perceived by policy makers. Responding to hidden collapse is further complicated by our finding that different drivers produce different pathways to collapse, but these drivers can interact in ways that exacerbate and perpetuate collapse. Management must focus not only on reducing the number of critical stressors influencing an ecosystem but also on breaking feedbacks between stressors. We demonstrate the importance of multidecadal monitoring programs in measuring state variables that can inform quantitative predictions of collapse as well as help identify management responses that can avert system-wide collapse.

Revegetation and reproduction: do restoration plantings in agricultural landscapes support breeding populations of woodland birds?

Restoration plantings are frequently occupied by native wildlife, but little is known about how planting attributes influence breeding by, and persistence of, fauna populations. We monitored breeding success of woodland birds in restoration plantings in a fragmented agricultural landscape in south-eastern Australia. We documented nest fate and daily nest survival (DSR) in plantings and remnant woodland sites. We analysed the influence on breeding success of patch attributes (size, shape, type) compared to other potentially influential predictors such as nest-site and microhabitat variables. We found that, in general, patch attributes did not play a significant role in determining breeding success for woodland birds. However, we examined a subset of species of conservation concern, and found higher DSR for these species in restoration plantings than in similarly sized woodland remnants. We also found negative effects of patch size and linearity on DSR in species of conservation concern. The primary cause of nest failure was predation (91%). We used camera trap imagery to identify the most common nest predators in our study sites: native predatory bird species, and the introduced red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Our findings are further evidence of the value of restoration plantings and small habitat patches for bird populations in fragmented agricultural landscapes. We recommend controlling for foxes to maximise the likelihood that restoration plantings and other woodland patches in Australia support breeding populations of woodland birds. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of taking a detailed, population-oriented approach to understanding factors that influence habitat suitability for fauna of conservation concern.

Avian functional responses to landscape recovery.

Restoring native vegetation in agricultural landscapes can reverse biodiversity declines via species gains. Depending on whether the traits of colonizers are complementary or redundant to the assemblage, species gains can increase the efficiency or stability of ecological functions, yet detecting these processes is not straightforward. We propose a new conceptual model to identify potential changes to complementarity and redundancy in response to landscape change via relative changes in taxonomic and functional richness. We applied our model to a 14-year study of birds across an extensive agricultural region. We found compelling evidence that high levels of landscape-scale tree cover and patch-scale restoration were significant determinants of functional change in the overall bird assemblage. This was true for every one of the six traits investigated individually, indicating increased trait-specific functional complementarity and redundancy in the assemblage. Applying our conceptual model to species diversity data provided new insights into how the return of vertebrates to restored landscapes may affect ecological function.

Weather effects on birds of different size are mediated by long-term climate and vegetation type in endangered temperate woodlands.

Species occurrence is influenced by a range of factors including habitat attributes, climate, weather, and human landscape modification. These drivers are likely to interact, but their effects are frequently quantified independently. Here, we report the results of a 13-year study of temperate woodland birds in south-eastern Australia to quantify how different-sized birds respond to the interacting effects of: (a) short-term weather (rainfall and temperature in the 12 months preceding our surveys), (b) long-term climate (average rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures over the period 1970-2014), and (c) broad structural forms of vegetation (old-growth woodland, regrowth woodland, and restoration plantings). We uncovered significant interactions between bird body size, vegetation type, climate, and weather. High short-term rainfall was associated with decreased occurrence of large birds in old-growth and regrowth woodland, but not in restoration plantings. Conversely, small bird occurrence peaked in wet years, but this effect was most pronounced in locations with a history of high rainfall, and was actually reversed (peak occurrence in dry years) in restoration plantings in dry climates. The occurrence of small birds was depressed-and large birds elevated-in hot years, except in restoration plantings which supported few large birds under these circumstances. Our investigation suggests that different mechanisms may underpin contrasting responses of small and large birds to the interacting effects of climate, weather, and vegetation type. A diversity of vegetation cover is needed across a landscape to promote the occurrence of different-sized bird species in agriculture-dominated landscapes, particularly under variable weather conditions. Climate change is predicted to lead to widespread drying of our study region, and restoration plantings-especially currently climatically wet areas-may become critically important for conserving bird species, particularly small-bodied taxa.

Spatiotemporal effects of logging and fire on tall, wet temperate eucalypt forest birds.

Forests globally are subject to disturbances such as logging and fire that create complex temporal variation in spatial patterns of forest cover and stand age. However, investigations that quantify temporal changes in biodiversity in response to multiple forms of disturbance in space and time are relatively uncommon. Over a 10-yr period, we investigated the response of bird species to spatiotemporal changes in forest cover associated with logging and wildfire in the mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests of southeastern Australia. Specifically, we examined how bird occurrence changed with shifts in the proportion of area burned or logged in a 4.5 km radius surrounding our 88 long-term field survey sites, each measuring 1 ha in size. Overall species richness was greatest in older forest patches, but declined as the amount of fire around each site increased. At the individual species level, 31 of the 37 bird species we modeled exhibited a negative response to the amount of fire in the surrounding landscape, while one species responded positively to fire. Only nine species exhibited signs of recovery in the 6 yr of surveys following the fire. Five species were more likely to be detected as the proportion of logged forest surrounding a site increased, suggesting a possible "concentration effect" with displaced birds moving into unlogged areas following harvesting of adjacent areas. We also identified relationships between the coefficients of life history attributes and spatiotemporal changes in forest cover and stand age. Large-bodied birds and migratory species were associated with landscapes subject to large amounts of fire in 2009. There were associations between old growth stands and small-bodied bird species and species that were not insectivores. Our study shows that birds in mountain ash forests are strongly associated with old growth stands and exhibit complex, time-dependent, and species-specific responses to landscape disturbance. Despite logging and fire both being high-severity perturbations, no bird species exhibited similar responses to fire and logging in the landscape surrounding our sites. Thus, species responses to one kind of landscape-scale disturbance are not readily predictable based on an understanding of the responses to another kind of (albeit superficially similar) disturbance.

A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem-wide impacts of reintroductions.

Reintroducing a species to an ecosystem can have significant impacts on the recipient ecological community. Although reintroductions can have striking and positive outcomes, they also carry risks; many well-intentioned conservation actions have had surprising and unsatisfactory outcomes. A range of network-based mathematical methods has been developed to make quantitative predictions of how communities will respond to management interventions. These methods are based on the limited knowledge of which species interact with each other and in what way. However, expert knowledge isn't perfect and can only take models so far. Fortunately, other types of data, such as abundance time series, is often available, but, to date, no quantitative method exists to integrate these various data types into these models, allowing more precise ecosystem-wide predictions. In this paper, we develop mathematical methods that combine time-series data of multiple species with knowledge of species interactions and we apply it to proposed reintroductions at Booderee National Park in Australia. There have been large fluctuations in species abundances at Booderee National Park in recent history, following intense feral fox (Vulpes vulpes) control, including the local extinction of the greater glider (Petauroides volans). These fluctuations can provide information about the system isn't readily obtained from a stable system, and we use them to inform models that we then use to predict potential outcomes of eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) and long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) reintroductions. One of the key species of conservation concern in the park is the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus), and we find that long-nosed potoroo introduction would have very little impact on the Eastern Bristlebird population, while the eastern quoll introduction increased the likelihood of Eastern Bristlebird decline, although that depends on the strength and form of any possible interaction.

Developing accurate prediction systems for the terrestrial environment.

In recent decades, meteorologists have made remarkable progress in predicting the weather, thereby saving lives and considerable sums of money. However, we are way behind when it comes to predicting the effects of environmental change on ecosystems, even when we are ourselves the agent of such change. Given the substantial environmental problems facing our living planet, and the need to tackle these in an ecologically responsible and cost-effective way, we should aspire to develop terrestrial environmental prediction systems that reach the levels of accuracy and precision which characterize weather prediction systems. I argue here that well designed, long-term monitoring programs will be key to developing robust environmental prediction systems.

How practitioners integrate decision triggers with existing metrics in conservation monitoring.

Decision triggers are defined thresholds in the status of monitored variables that indicate when to undertake management, and avoid undesirable ecosystem change. Decision triggers are frequently recommended to conservation practitioners as a tool to facilitate evidence-based management practices, but there has been limited attention paid to how practitioners are integrating decision triggers into existing monitoring programs. We sought to understand whether conservation practitioners' use of decision triggers was influenced by the type of variables in their monitoring programs. We investigated this question using a practitioner-focused workshop involving a structured discussion and review of eight monitoring programs. Among our case studies, direct measures of biodiversity (e.g. native species) were more commonly monitored, but less likely to be linked to decision triggers (10% with triggers) than measures being used as surrogates (54% with triggers) for program objectives. This was because decision triggers were associated with management of threatening processes, which were often monitored as a surrogate for a biodiversity asset of interest. By contrast, direct measures of biodiversity were more commonly associated with informal decision processes that led to activities such as management reviews or external consultation. Workshop participants were in favor of including more formalized decision triggers in their programs, but were limited by incomplete ecological knowledge, lack of appropriately skilled staff, funding constraints, and/or uncertainty regarding intervention effectiveness. We recommend that practitioners consider including decision triggers for discussion activities (such as external consultation) in their programs as more than just early warning points for future interventions, particularly for direct measures. Decision triggers for discussions should be recognized as a critical feature of monitoring programs where information and operational limitations inhibit the use of decision triggers for interventions.