Epigenetic Age Acceleration Reflects Long-Term Cardiovascular Health.

[Figure: see text].

Comparison of State-of-the-Art Neural Network Survival Models with the Pooled Cohort Equations for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction.

BACKGROUND: The Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) are race- and sex-specific Cox proportional hazards (PH)-based models used for 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk prediction with acceptable discrimination. In recent years, neural network models have gained increasing popularity with their success in image recognition and text classification. Various survival neural network models have been proposed by combining survival analysis and neural network architecture to take advantage of the strengths from both. However, the performance of these survival neural network models compared to each other and to PCEs in ASCVD prediction is unknown. METHODS: In this study, we used 6 cohorts from the Lifetime Risk Pooling Project (with 5 cohorts as training/internal validation and one cohort as external validation) and compared the performance of the PCEs in 10-year ASCVD risk prediction with an all two-way interactions Cox PH model (Cox PH-TWI) and three state-of-the-art neural network survival models including Nnet-survival, Deepsurv, and Cox-nnet. For all the models, we used the same 7 covariates as used in the PCEs. We fitted each of the aforementioned models in white females, white males, black females, and black males, respectively. We evaluated models' internal and external discrimination power and calibration. RESULTS: The training/internal validation sample comprised 23216 individuals. The average age at baseline was 57.8 years old (SD = 9.6); 16% developed ASCVD during average follow-up of 10.50 (SD = 3.02) years. Based on 10 × 10 cross-validation, the method that had the highest C-statistics was Deepsurv (0.7371) for white males, Deepsurv and Cox PH-TWI (0.7972) for white females, PCE (0.6981) for black males, and Deepsurv (0.7886) for black females. In the external validation dataset, Deepsurv (0.7032), Cox-nnet (0.7282), PCE (0.6811), and Deepsurv (0.7316) had the highest C-statistics for white male, white female, black male, and black female population, respectively. Calibration plots showed that in 10 × 10 validation, all models had good calibration in all race and sex groups. In external validation, all models overestimated the risk for 10-year ASCVD. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the use of the state-of-the-art neural network survival models in ASCVD risk prediction. Neural network survival models had similar if not superior discrimination and calibration compared to PCEs.

Racial Differences in Urinary Incontinence Prevalence, Overactive Bladder and Associated Bother among Men: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PURPOSE: We examined the association of race/ethnicity with urinary incontinence subtypes and overactive bladder, and associated bother in older men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, an observational cohort of 4 racial/ethnic groups. At the sixth followup examination (age 60 to 98 years, 2015 to 2016) urinary symptoms were ascertained with the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire. Prevalence ratios of urinary incontinence subtypes and overactive bladder without incontinence by race/ethnicity were calculated while adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and medications. Degree of bother was based on scale of 0 (none) to 10 (most) with bother presence defined as a score of 3 or greater. RESULTS: Among 1,536 men 94% completed the questionnaire. Among completers, race/ethnicity was 40.7% nonHispanic White, 14.3% Chinese, 23.0% nonHispanic Black and 22.1% Hispanic. Urinary incontinence was reported by 11.1% and urgency urinary incontinence accounted for 78.0% of all urinary incontinence. The highest prevalence of urgency urinary incontinence was noted among nonHispanic Black men (13.0%) followed by Hispanic (11.3%), nonHispanic White (6.8%) and Chinese (2.9%) men. NonHispanic Black men showed a higher prevalence of any urinary incontinence (PR 1.62, 95% CI 1.06-2.47) and urgency urinary incontinence (1.63, 95% CI 1.01-2.61) compared to nonHispanic White men after adjustments for covariates. No significant association was noted with other urinary incontinence subtypes by race/ethnicity after adjustment for covariates. More than 70% of urinary incontinence was associated with bother for all racial/ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary incontinence prevalence differs by race/ethnicity but most urinary incontinence is associated with bother regardless of race/ethnicity.

Racial differences in urinary incontinence prevalence and associated bother: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Urinary incontinence is influenced by multiple factors, and the prevalence of urinary incontinence subtypes may differ by race and ethnicity. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of urinary incontinence subtypes and associated bother among women by race and ethnicity. STUDY DESIGN: This cross-sectional analysis used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, an observational cohort study of 4 racial and ethnic groups recruited from 6 communities from the United States. At the sixth follow-up examination, urinary symptoms were ascertained with the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire. The prevalence rate ratios of stress urinary incontinence, urgency urinary incontinence, and mixed urinary incontinence by race and ethnicity were calculated using generalized linear models for the binomial family while adjusting for covariates. The degree of bother was based on a scale of 0 (none) to 10 (greatest bother), and presence of any bother was defined as a score of ≥3. RESULTS: Among the 1749 female participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who completed the sixth follow-up examination, 1628 (93%) completed the questionnaire. Women who did not complete the questionnaire were older than those who completed the questionnaire (average age, 82.2 [standard deviation, 9.5] vs 73.7 [standard deviation, 8.4] years; P<.01) and more likely to use diuretics (29.8% vs 18.9%; P<.01). Among those who completed the questionnaire (n=1628), 39.4% were white, 12.5% were Chinese, 27.2% were black, and 20.9% were Hispanic. After adjusting for covariates, stress urinary incontinence (prevalence rate ratio, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.86) and mixed urinary incontinence (prevalence rate ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.89) regardless of bother scores were significantly less prevalent among black vs white women, although no significant racial and ethnic differences in stress or mixed urinary incontinence prevalence were noted for Chinese or Hispanic women vs white women. No racial and ethnic differences in the prevalence of urgency urinary incontinence were noted after the adjustment for covariates. Most women with urinary incontinence reported bother scores of ≥3 regardless of race and ethnicity and urinary incontinence subtype, and bother scores did not differ significantly by race and ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Frequency of urinary incontinence subtypes may differ by race and ethnicity, but older women who report urinary incontinence are likely to have associated bother regardless of race and ethnicity.

Human airway branch variation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Susceptibility to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) beyond cigarette smoking is incompletely understood, although several genetic variants associated with COPD are known to regulate airway branch development. We demonstrate that in vivo central airway branch variants are present in 26.5% of the general population, are unchanged over 10 y, and exhibit strong familial aggregation. The most common airway branch variant is associated with COPD in two cohorts (n = 5,054), with greater central airway bifurcation density, and with emphysema throughout the lung. The second most common airway branch variant is associated with COPD among smokers, with narrower airway lumens in all lobes, and with genetic polymorphisms within the FGF10 gene. We conclude that central airway branch variation, readily detected by computed tomography, is a biomarker of widely altered lung structure with a genetic basis and represents a COPD susceptibility factor.

Results of the CARDIA study suggest that higher dietary potassium may be kidney protective.

The association between dietary sodium and potassium intake with the development of kidney disease remains unclear, particularly among younger individuals. Here, we determined whether dietary sodium and potassium intake are associated with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) using data from 1,030 adults (age 23-35 in 1990-1991) from the Coronary Artery Risk Development In Young Adults study, based on repeated measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR) from 1995 through 2015. Urinary sodium and potassium excretion (mg/day), calculated from three 24-hour urine collections in 1990-1991, were averaged to measure sodium and potassium intake. Serum creatinine was used to calculate eGFR using the CKD EPI equation; spot urine albumin and creatinine were used to calculate ACR, each at five visits from 1995-1996 through 2015-2016. CKD was defined as decreased eGFR (under 60 ml/min/1.73m2) or the development of albuminuria (ACR over 30 mg/g). We used log binomial regression models adjusted for socio-demographic, behavioral, and clinical factors to determine whether sodium and potassium intake were associated with incident CKD (decreased eGFR or developed albuminuria) among those free of CKD in 1995. Dietary sodium intake was not significantly associated with incident CKD. However, every 1,000 mg/day increment of potassium intake in 1990 was significantly associated with a 29% lower risk of incident albuminuria (relative risk 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.53, 0.95), but not eGFR. Thus, higher dietary potassium intake may protect against the development of kidney damage, particularly albuminuria.

Impact of salt substitute and stepwise reduction of salt supply on blood pressure in residents in senior residential facilities: Design and rationale of the DECIDE-Salt trial.

BACKGROUND: High sodium intake has been considered as the leading dietary risk factor for deaths and disability-adjusted life-years among older adults. High-quality randomized trials to evaluate the effects of practical sodium reduction strategies are needed. METHODS: The study is a cluster randomized trial with a 2 × 2 factorial design conducted in 48 senior residential facilities in northern China. These facilities are randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to 1 of 4 groups: stepwise salt supply control (SSSC) in which 5%-10% of the study salt supply in the institutional kitchens will be reduced every 3 months, replacing normal salt with salt substitute (SS); SSSC only; SS only; or neither SSSC nor SS. The interventions last for 2 years with follow-up every 6 months. The primary outcome is the change in systolic blood pressure from baseline to 24 months. Secondary outcomes include the incidence of hyperkalemia, hyponatremia, cardiovascular events, and death. CURRENT STATUS: The study has recruited and randomized 48 senior residential facilities with 1,606 participants. Mean age at baseline was 71 years, and 76% are male. Both types of salt intervention were initiated in the study facilities between January and April 2018. CONCLUSION: The study is well placed to define the effects of 2 practical and scalable sodium reduction strategies for blood pressure reduction and will provide important new data about safety of these strategies among older adults in China.

Intakes of long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and non-fried fish in relation to incidence of chronic kidney disease in young adults: a 25-year follow-up.

PURPOSE: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is increasing rapidly in many countries and has become a major public health concern. Although intakes of long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCω3PUFA) and its food source-fish-may have renal protective effects, little is known about the longitudinal association between these dietary factors and CKD incidence. METHODS: A total of 4133 healthy individuals of black and white race aged 18-30 at baseline (1985-1986) from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study were enrolled and followed up over 25 years. LCω3PUFA and fish intake were assessed by an interview-based dietary history questionnaire at baseline, year 7 (1992-1993) and 20 (2005-2006). RESULTS: Four hundred and eighty-nine incident cases of CKD were identified. After adjustment for potential confounders, LCω3PUFA intake was inversely associated with CKD incidence [HR = 0.73 (95% CI 0.60-0.89), P = 0.002, with one standard division (0.19 g/day) increment in LCω3PUFA]. This inverse association was persisted among females [0.64 (95% CI 0.48, 0.84; P = 0.002], but not males (Pinteraction = 0.070). A marginal significant inverse association was also found between non-fried fish consumption and CKD incidence (HR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.73, 1.01; P = 0.073). CONCLUSIONS: Dietary LCω3PUFA intake was inversely associated with incidence of CKD among American young adults over 25 years of follow-up. The suggestive evidence of the inverse association between non-fried fish consumption with CKD incidence needs further confirmation.

The Association of Optimism with Sleep Duration and Quality: Findings from the Coronary Artery Risk and Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

Optimism is associated with better health outcomes with hypothesized effects due in part to optimism's association with restorative health processes. Limited work has examined whether optimism is associated with better quality sleep, a major restorative process. We test the hypothesis that greater optimism is associated with more favorable sleep quality and duration. Main analyses included adults aged 32-51 who participated in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study (n = 3,548) during the fifth (Year 15: 2000-2001) and sixth (Year 20: 2005-2006) follow-up visits. Optimism was assessed using the revised Life-Orientation Test. Self-report measures of sleep quality and duration were obtained twice 5 years apart. A subset of CARDIA participants (2003-2005) additionally provided actigraphic data and completed the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS). Multivariate regression analyses were used to examine associations of optimism and sleep indicators. In cross-sectional analyses of 3548 participants, each standard deviation (SD) higher optimism score resulted in 78% higher odds of self-reporting very good sleep quality. Prospectively, a 1-SD higher optimism score was related to higher odds of reporting persistently good sleep quality across 5-years relative to those with persistently poor sleep [OR = 1.31; 95%CI:1.10,1.56]. In participant with supplementary data, each SD higher optimism score was marginally associated with 22% greater odds of favorable sleep quality [OR = 1.22; 95%CI:1.00,1.49] as measured by the PSQI, with possible mediation by depressive symptoms. Optimism was unrelated to objective actigraphic sleep data. Findings support a positive cross-sectional and prospective association between optimism and self-reported sleep behavior.

Association among sickle cell trait, fitness, and cardiovascular risk factors in CARDIA.

The contribution of sickle cell trait (SCT) to racial disparities in cardiopulmonary fitness is not known, despite concerns that SCT is associated with exertion-related sudden death. We evaluated the association of SCT status with cross-sectional and longitudinal changes in fitness and risk for hypertension, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome over the course of 25 years among 1995 African Americans (56% women, 18-30 years old) in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study. Overall, the prevalence of SCT was 6.8% (136/1995) in CARDIA, and over the course of 25 years, 46% (738/1590), 18% (288/1631), and 40% (645/1,611) of all participants developed hypertension, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome, respectively. Compared with participants without SCT, participants with SCT had similar baseline measures of fitness in cross-section, including exercise duration (535 vs 540 seconds; P = .62), estimated metabolic equivalent of tasks (METs; 11.6 vs 11.7; P = .80), maximum heart rate (174 vs 175 beats/min; P = .41), and heart rate at 2 minutes recovery (44 vs 43 beats/min; P = .28). In our secondary analysis, there was neither an association of SCT status with longitudinal changes in fitness nor an association with development of hypertension, diabetes, or metabolic syndrome after adjustment for sex, baseline age, body mass index, fitness, and physical activity. SCT is not associated with reduced fitness in this longitudinal study of young African American adults, suggesting the increased risk for exertion-related sudden death in SCT carriers is unlikely related to fitness. SCT status also is not an independent risk factor for developing hypertension, diabetes, or metabolic syndrome.

Evaluating Longitudinal Associations Between Depressive Symptoms, Smoking, and Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Disease in the CARDIA Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to evaluate associations between 15-year trajectories of co-occurring depressive symptoms and smoking with biomarkers of cardiovascular disease at year 15. METHODS: In the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, we modeled trajectories of depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale [CES-D]) and smoking (cigarettes per day [CPD]) among 3614 adults followed from year 0 (ages 18-30 years) through year 15 (ages 33-45 years). Biomarkers of inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), oxidative stress (superoxide dismutase, F2-isoprostanes), and endothelial dysfunction (soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1, soluble P-selectin) were assessed at year 15. We conducted separate linear regression analyses with CES-D trajectory, CPD trajectory, and their interaction with each of the five biomarkers. RESULTS: The sample was 56% women, 47% black, and 40 years old on average at year 15. The CES-D trajectory by CPD trajectory interaction was not associated with any of the biomarkers (all p's > .01). Removing the interaction term, CES-D trajectory was associated with inflammation: higher levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein were observed in the subthreshold (ß = 0.57, p = .004) and increasing depressive symptoms (ß = 1.36, p < .001) trajectories compared with the no depression trajectory. CPD trajectory was associated with oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction: compared with never smokers, heavy smokers had significantly higher levels of F2-isoprostanes (ß = 6.20, p = .001), soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ß = 24.98, p < .001), and soluble P-selectin (ß = 2.91, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Co-occurring depressive symptoms and smoking do not seem to synergistically convey risk for cardiovascular disease via processes of inflammation, oxidative stress, or endothelial dysfunction. Nonetheless, these results advance our understanding of the complex relationships between modifiable risk factors and chronic disease.

Cardiovascular Event Prediction by Machine Learning: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

RATIONALE: Machine learning may be useful to characterize cardiovascular risk, predict outcomes, and identify biomarkers in population studies. OBJECTIVE: To test the ability of random survival forests, a machine learning technique, to predict 6 cardiovascular outcomes in comparison to standard cardiovascular risk scores. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Baseline measurements were used to predict cardiovascular outcomes over 12 years of follow-up. MESA was designed to study progression of subclinical disease to cardiovascular events where participants were initially free of cardiovascular disease. All 6814 participants from MESA, aged 45 to 84 years, from 4 ethnicities, and 6 centers across the United States were included. Seven-hundred thirty-five variables from imaging and noninvasive tests, questionnaires, and biomarker panels were obtained. We used the random survival forests technique to identify the top-20 predictors of each outcome. Imaging, electrocardiography, and serum biomarkers featured heavily on the top-20 lists as opposed to traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Age was the most important predictor for all-cause mortality. Fasting glucose levels and carotid ultrasonography measures were important predictors of stroke. Coronary Artery Calcium score was the most important predictor of coronary heart disease and all atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease combined outcomes. Left ventricular structure and function and cardiac troponin-T were among the top predictors for incident heart failure. Creatinine, age, and ankle-brachial index were among the top predictors of atrial fibrillation. TNF-α (tissue necrosis factor-α) and IL (interleukin)-2 soluble receptors and NT-proBNP (N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide) levels were important across all outcomes. The random survival forests technique performed better than established risk scores with increased prediction accuracy (decreased Brier score by 10%-25%). CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning in conjunction with deep phenotyping improves prediction accuracy in cardiovascular event prediction in an initially asymptomatic population. These methods may lead to greater insights on subclinical disease markers without apriori assumptions of causality. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00005487.

Cardiovascular health in young and middle adulthood and medical care utilization and costs at older age - The Chicago Heart Association Detection Project Industry (CHA).

It is unclear how long-term medical utilization and costs from diverse care settings and their age-related patterns may differ by cardiovascular health (CVH) status earlier in adulthood. We followed 17,195 participants of the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project Industry (1967-1973) with linked Medicare claims (1992 to 2010). Baseline CVH is a composite measure of blood pressure, body mass index, diabetes, cholesterol, and smoking and includes four mutually exclusive strata: all factors were favorable (5.5%), one or more factors were elevated but none high (20.3%), one factor was high (40.9%), and two or more factors were high (33.2%). We assessed differences in the quantities (using negative binomial models) of and costs (using quantile regressions) for inpatient admissions, ambulatory care, home health care, and others between less favorable and all favorable CVH. All analyses adjusted for baseline age, race, sex, education, age at follow-up, year, state of residence, and death. We found that all favorable CVH in earlier adulthood was associated with lower long-term utilization and costs in all settings and the gap widened with age. Compared to all favorable CVH, the annual number of acute inpatient admissions per person was 79% greater (p-value < 0.001) for poor CVH, the median annual Medicare payment per person was $640 greater (41%, p-value < 0.001), and the mean was $4628 greater (67%, p-value < 0.001). The cost differences were greatest for acute inpatient, followed by ambulatory, post-acute inpatient, home health, and other. Early prevention efforts may potentially result in compressed all-cause morbidity in later years of age, along with reductions in resource use and health care costs for associated conditions.

Respiratory Symptoms in Young Adults and Future Lung Disease. The CARDIA Lung Study.

RATIONALE: There are limited data on factors in young adulthood that predict future lung disease. OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between respiratory symptoms, loss of lung health, and incident respiratory disease in a population-based study of young adults. METHODS: We examined prospective data from 2,749 participants in the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study who completed respiratory symptom questionnaires at baseline and 2 years later and repeated spirometry measurements over 30 years. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Cough or phlegm, episodes of bronchitis, wheeze, shortness of breath, and chest illnesses at both baseline and Year 2 were the main predictor variables in models assessing decline in FEV1 and FVC from Year 5 to Year 30, incident obstructive and restrictive lung physiology, and visual emphysema on thoracic computed tomography scan. After adjustment for covariates, including body mass index, asthma, and smoking, report of any symptom was associated with -2.71 ml/yr excess decline in FEV1 (P < 0.001) and -2.18 in FVC (P < 0.001) as well as greater odds of incident (prebronchodilator) obstructive (odds ratio [OR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-2.14) and restrictive (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.09-1.80) physiology. Cough-related symptoms (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.13-2.16) were associated with greater odds of future emphysema. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent respiratory symptoms in young adults are associated with accelerated decline in lung function, incident obstructive and restrictive physiology, and greater odds of future radiographic emphysema.

Ten-year association of coronary artery calcium with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA).

Aims: While coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been extensively validated for predicting clinical events, most outcome studies of CAC have evaluated coronary heart disease (CHD) rather than atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events (including stroke). Also, virtually all CAC studies are of short- or intermediate-term follow-up, so studies across multi-ethnic cohorts with long-term follow-up are warranted prior to widespread clinical use. We sought to evaluate the contribution of CAC using the population-based MESA cohort with over 10 years of follow-up for ASCVD events, and whether the association of CAC with events varied by sex, race/ethnicity, or age category. Methods and results: We utilized MESA, a prospective multi-ethnic cohort study of 6814 participants (51% women), aged 45-84 years, free of clinical CVD at baseline. We evaluated the relationship between CAC and incident ASCVD using Cox regression models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, income, cigarette smoking status, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, lipid-lowering medication, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, intentional physical exercise, and body mass index. Only the first event for each individual was used in the analysis. Overall, 500 incident ASCVD (7.4%) events were observed in the total study population over a median of 11.1 years. Hard ASCVD included 217 myocardial infarction, 188 strokes (not transient ischaemic attack), 13 resuscitated cardiac arrest, and 82 CHD deaths. Event rates in those with CAC = 0 Agatston units ranged from 1.3% to 5.6%, while for those with CAC > 300, the 10-year event rates ranged from 13.1% to 25.6% across different age, gender, and racial subgroups. At 10 years of follow-up, all participants with CAC > 100 were estimated to have >7.5% risk regardless of demographic subset. Ten-year ASCVD event rates increased steadily across CAC categories regardless of age, sex, or race/ethnicity. For each doubling of CAC, we estimated a 14% relative increment in ASCVD risk, holding all other risk factors constant. This association was not significantly modified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, or baseline lipid-lowering use. Conclusions: Coronary artery calcium is associated strongly and in a graded fashion with 10-year risk of incident ASCVD as it is for CHD, independent of standard risk factors, and similarly by age, gender, and ethnicity. While 10-year event rates in those with CAC = 0 were almost exclusively below 5%, those with CAC ≥ 100 were consistently above 7.5%, making these potentially valuable cutpoints for the consideration of preventive therapies. Coronary artery calcium strongly predicts risk with the same magnitude of effect in all races, age groups, and both sexes, which makes it among the most useful markers for predicting ASCVD risk.

Favorable Cardiovascular Health, Compression of Morbidity, and Healthcare Costs: Forty-Year Follow-Up of the CHA Study (Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry).

BACKGROUND: We examined the association of cardiovascular health at younger ages with the proportion of life lived free of morbidity, the cumulative burden of morbidity, and average healthcare costs at older ages. METHODS: The CHA study (Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry) is a longitudinal cohort of employed men and women 18 to 74 years of age at baseline examination in 1967 to 1973. Baseline measurements included blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, and smoking. Individuals were classified into 1 of 4 strata of cardiovascular health: favorable levels of all factors, 0 factors high but ≥1 elevated risk factors, 1 high risk factor, and ≥2 high risk factors. Linked Medicare and National Death Index data from 1984 to 2010 were used to determine morbidity in older age. An individual's all-cause morbidity score and cardiovascular morbidity score were calculated from International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision codes for each year of follow-up. RESULTS: We included 25 804 participants who became ≥65 years of age by 2010, representing 65% of all original CHA participants (43% female; 90% white; mean age, 44 years at baseline); 6% had favorable levels of all factors, 19% had ≥1 risk factors at elevated levels, 40% had 1 high risk factor, and 35% had ≥2 high risk factors. Favorable cardiovascular health at younger ages extended survival by almost 4 years and postponed the onset of all-cause and cardiovascular morbidity by 4.5 and 7 years, respectively, resulting in compression of morbidity in both absolute and relative terms. This translated to lower cumulative and annual healthcare costs for those in favorable cardiovascular health (P<0.001) during Medicare eligibility. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals in favorable cardiovascular health in early middle age live a longer, healthier life free of all types of morbidity. These findings provide strong support for prevention efforts earlier in life aimed at preserving cardiovascular health and reducing the burden of disease in older ages.

Validity of Cardiovascular Data From Electronic Sources: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and HealthLNK.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the validity of data from electronic data research networks is critical to national research initiatives and learning healthcare systems for cardiovascular care. Our goal was to evaluate the degree of agreement of electronic data research networks in comparison with data collected by standardized research approaches in a cohort study. METHODS: We linked individual-level data from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a community-based cohort, with HealthLNK, a 2006 to 2012 database of electronic health records from 6 Chicago health systems. To evaluate the correlation and agreement of blood pressure in HealthLNK in comparison with in-person MESA examinations, and body mass index in HealthLNK in comparison with MESA, we used Pearson correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots. Using diagnoses in MESA as the criterion standard, we calculated the performance of HealthLNK for hypertension, obesity, and diabetes mellitus diagnosis by using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes and clinical data. We also identified potential myocardial infarctions, strokes, and heart failure events in HealthLNK and compared them with adjudicated events in MESA. RESULTS: Of the 1164 MESA participants enrolled at the Chicago Field Center, 802 (68.9%) participants had data in HealthLNK. The correlation was low for systolic blood pressure (0.39; P<0.0001). In comparison with MESA, HealthLNK overestimated systolic blood pressure by 6.5 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, 4.2-7.8). There was a high correlation between body mass index in MESA and HealthLNK (0.94; P<0.0001). HealthLNK underestimated body mass index by 0.3 kg/m2 (95% confidence interval, -0.4 to -0.1). With the use of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes and clinical data, the sensitivity and specificity of HealthLNK queries for hypertension were 82.4% and 59.4%, for obesity were 73.0% and 89.8%, and for diabetes mellitus were 79.8% and 93.3%. In comparison with adjudicated cardiovascular events in MESA, the concordance rates for myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure were, respectively, 41.7% (5/12), 61.5% (8/13), and 62.5% (10/16). CONCLUSIONS: These findings illustrate the limitations and strengths of electronic data repositories in comparison with information collected by traditional standardized epidemiological approaches for the ascertainment of cardiovascular risk factors and events.

Meta-analysis of correlated traits via summary statistics from GWASs with an application in hypertension.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified many genetic variants underlying complex traits. Many detected genetic loci harbor variants that associate with multiple-even distinct-traits. Most current analysis approaches focus on single traits, even though the final results from multiple traits are evaluated together. Such approaches miss the opportunity to systemically integrate the phenome-wide data available for genetic association analysis. In this study, we propose a general approach that can integrate association evidence from summary statistics of multiple traits, either correlated, independent, continuous, or binary traits, which might come from the same or different studies. We allow for trait heterogeneity effects. Population structure and cryptic relatedness can also be controlled. Our simulations suggest that the proposed method has improved statistical power over single-trait analysis in most of the cases we studied. We applied our method to the Continental Origins and Genetic Epidemiology Network (COGENT) African ancestry samples for three blood pressure traits and identified four loci (CHIC2, HOXA-EVX1, IGFBP1/IGFBP3, and CDH17; p < 5.0 × 10(-8)) associated with hypertension-related traits that were missed by a single-trait analysis in the original report. Six additional loci with suggestive association evidence (p < 5.0 × 10(-7)) were also observed, including CACNA1D and WNT3. Our study strongly suggests that analyzing multiple phenotypes can improve statistical power and that such analysis can be executed with the summary statistics from GWASs. Our method also provides a way to study a cross phenotype (CP) association by using summary statistics from GWASs of multiple phenotypes.

Association between Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Lung Health from Young Adulthood to Middle Age.

RATIONALE: Beyond the risks of smoking, there are limited data on factors associated with change in lung function over time. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether cardiorespiratory fitness was longitudinally associated with preservation of lung health. METHODS: Prospective data were collected from 3,332 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study aged 18-30 in 1985 who underwent treadmill exercise testing at baseline visit, and 2,735 participants with a second treadmill test 20 years later. The association between cardiorespiratory fitness and covariate adjusted decline in lung function was evaluated. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Higher baseline fitness was associated with less decline in lung function. When adjusted for age, height, race-sex group, peak lung function, and years from peak lung function, each additional minute of treadmill duration was associated with 1.00 ml/yr less decline in FEV1 (P < 0.001) and 1.55 ml/yr less decline in FVC (P < 0.001). Greater decline in fitness was associated with greater annual decline in lung function. Each 1-minute decline in treadmill duration between baseline and Year 20 was associated with 2.54 ml/yr greater decline in FEV1 (P < 0.001) and 3.27 ml/yr greater decline in FVC (P < 0.001). Both sustaining higher and achieving relatively increased levels of fitness over 20 years were associated with preservation of lung health. CONCLUSIONS: Greater cardiopulmonary fitness in young adulthood, less decline in fitness from young adulthood to middle age, and achieving increased fitness from young adulthood to middle age are associated with less decline in lung health over time. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00005130).

Cardiometabolic Abnormalities Among Normal-Weight Persons From Five Racial/Ethnic Groups in the United States: A Cross-sectional Analysis of Two Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between body weight and cardiometabolic disease may vary substantially by race/ethnicity. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and correlates of the phenotype of metabolic abnormality but normal weight (MAN) for 5 racial/ethnic groups. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis. SETTING: 2 community-based cohorts. PARTICIPANTS: 2622 white, 803 Chinese American, 1893 African American, and 1496 Hispanic persons from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) and 803 South Asian participants in the MASALA (Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America) study. MEASUREMENTS: Prevalence of 2 or more cardiometabolic abnormalities (high fasting glucose, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high triglyceride levels and hypertension) among normal-weight participants was estimated. Correlates of MAN were assessed by using log-binomial models. RESULTS: Among normal-weight participants (n = 846 whites, 323 Chinese Americans, 334 African Americans, 252 Hispanics, and 195 South Asians), the prevalence of MAN was 21.0% (95% CI, 18.4% to 23.9%) in whites, 32.2% (CI, 27.3% to 37.4%) in Chinese Americans, 31.1% (CI, 26.3% to 36.3%) in African Americans, 38.5% (CI, 32.6% to 44.6%) in Hispanics, and 43.6% (CI, 36.8% to 50.6%) in South Asians. Adjustment for demographic, behavioral, and ectopic body fat measures did not explain racial/ethnic differences. After adjustment for age, sex, and race/ethnicity-body mass index (BMI) interaction, for the equivalent MAN prevalence at a BMI of 25.0 kg/m2 in whites, the corresponding BMI values were 22.9 kg/m2 (CI, 19.5 to 26.3 kg/m2) in African Americans, 21.5 kg/m2 (CI, 18.5 to 24.5 kg/m2) in Hispanics, 20.9 kg/m2 (CI, 19.7 to 22.1 kg/m2) in Chinese Americans, and 19.6 kg/m2 (CI, 17.2 to 22.0 kg/m2) in South Asians. LIMITATION: Cross-sectional study design and lack of harmonized dietary data between studies. CONCLUSION: Compared with whites, all racial/ethnic minority groups had a statistically significantly higher prevalence of MAN, which was not explained by demographic, behavioral, or ectopic fat measures. Using a BMI criterion for overweight to screen for cardiometabolic risk may result in a large proportion of racial/ethnic minority groups being overlooked. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.