Autoimmune alleles at the major histocompatibility locus modify melanoma susceptibility.

Autoimmunity and cancer represent two different aspects of immune dysfunction. Autoimmunity is characterized by breakdowns in immune self-tolerance, while impaired immune surveillance can allow for tumorigenesis. The class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC-I), which displays derivatives of the cellular peptidome for immune surveillance by CD8+ T cells, serves as a common genetic link between these conditions. As melanoma-specific CD8+ T cells have been shown to target melanocyte-specific peptide antigens more often than melanoma-specific antigens, we investigated whether vitiligo- and psoriasis-predisposing MHC-I alleles conferred a melanoma-protective effect. In individuals with cutaneous melanoma from both The Cancer Genome Atlas (n = 451) and an independent validation set (n = 586), MHC-I autoimmune-allele carrier status was significantly associated with a later age of melanoma diagnosis. Furthermore, MHC-I autoimmune-allele carriers were significantly associated with decreased risk of developing melanoma in the Million Veteran Program (OR = 0.962, p = 0.024). Existing melanoma polygenic risk scores (PRSs) did not predict autoimmune-allele carrier status, suggesting these alleles provide orthogonal risk-relevant information. Mechanisms of autoimmune protection were neither associated with improved melanoma-driver mutation association nor improved gene-level conserved antigen presentation relative to common alleles. However, autoimmune alleles showed higher affinity relative to common alleles for particular windows of melanocyte-conserved antigens and loss of heterozygosity of autoimmune alleles caused the greatest reduction in presentation for several conserved antigens across individuals with loss of HLA alleles. Overall, this study presents evidence that MHC-I autoimmune-risk alleles modulate melanoma risk unaccounted for by current PRSs.

The Optimal Age to Stop Endoscopic Surveillance of Patients With Barrett's Esophagus Based on Sex and Comorbidity: A Comparative Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Current guidelines recommend surveillance for patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE) but do not include a recommended age for discontinuing surveillance. This study aimed to determine the optimal age for last surveillance of NDBE patients stratified by sex and level of comorbidity. METHODS: We used 3 independently developed models to simulate patients diagnosed with NDBE, varying in age, sex, and comorbidity level (no, mild, moderate, and severe). All patients had received regular surveillance until their current age. We calculated incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained from 1 additional endoscopic surveillance at the current age versus not performing surveillance at that age. We determined the optimal age to end surveillance as the age at which incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 1 more surveillance was just less than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. RESULTS: The benefit of having 1 more surveillance endoscopy strongly depended on age, sex, and comorbidity. For men with NDBE and severe comorbidity, 1 additional surveillance at age 80 years provided 4 more QALYs per 1000 patients with BE at an additional cost of $1.2 million, whereas for women with severe comorbidity the benefit at that age was 7 QALYs at a cost of $1.3 million. For men with no, mild, moderate, and severe comorbidity, the optimal ages of last surveillance were 81, 80, 77, and 73 years, respectively. For women, these ages were younger: 75, 73, 73, and 69 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our comparative modeling analysis illustrates the importance of considering comorbidity status and sex when deciding on the age to discontinue surveillance in patients with NDBE.

Modeling historic incidence trends implies early field cancerization in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Patterns of cancer incidence, viewed over extended time periods, reveal important aspects of multistage carcinogenesis. Here we show how a multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model for cancer can be harnessed to identify biological processes that shape the surprisingly dynamic and disparate incidence patterns of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in the US population. While the dramatic rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in the US has been largely attributed to reflux related increases in the prevalence of Barrett's esophagus (BE), the premalignant field in which most EAC are thought to arise, only scant evidence exists for field cancerization contributing to ESCC. Our analyses of incidence patterns suggest that ESCC is associated with a premalignant field that may develop very early in life. Although the risk of ESCC, which is substantially higher in Blacks than Whites, is generally assumed to be associated with late-childhood and adult exposures to carcinogens, such as from tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption and various industrial exposures, the temporal trends we identify for ESCC suggest an onset distribution of field-defects before age 10, most strongly among Blacks. These trends differ significantly in shape and strength from field-defect trends that we estimate for US Whites. Moreover, the rates of ESCC-predisposing field-defects predicted by the model for cohorts of black children are decreasing for more recent birth cohorts (for Blacks born after 1940). These results point to a potential etiologic role of factors acting early in life, perhaps related to nutritional deficiencies, in the development of ESCC and its predisposing field-defect. Such factors may explain some of the striking racial differences seen in ESCC incidence patterns over time in the US.

Optimal Timing for Cancer Screening and Adaptive Surveillance Using Mathematical Modeling.

Cancer screening and early detection efforts have been partially successful in reducing incidence and mortality, but many improvements are needed. Although current medical practice is informed by epidemiologic studies and experts, the decisions for guidelines are ultimately ad hoc. We propose here that quantitative optimization of protocols can potentially increase screening success and reduce overdiagnosis. Mathematical modeling of the stochastic process of cancer evolution can be used to derive and optimize the timing of clinical screens so that the probability is maximal that a patient is screened within a certain "window of opportunity" for intervention when early cancer development may be observable. Alternative to a strictly empirical approach or microsimulations of a multitude of possible scenarios, biologically based mechanistic modeling can be used for predicting when best to screen and begin adaptive surveillance. We introduce a methodology for optimizing screening, assessing potential risks, and quantifying associated costs to healthcare using multiscale models. As a case study in Barrett's esophagus, these methods were applied for a model of esophageal adenocarcinoma that was previously calibrated to U.S. cancer registry data. Optimal screening ages for patients with symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux disease were older (58 for men and 64 for women) than what is currently recommended (age > 50 years). These ages are in a cost-effective range to start screening and were independently validated by data used in current guidelines. Collectively, our framework captures critical aspects of cancer evolution within patients with Barrett's esophagus for a more personalized screening design. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates how mathematical modeling of cancer evolution can be used to optimize screening regimes, with the added potential to improve surveillance regimes. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/81/4/1123/F1.large.jpg.

Epigenetic Aging: More Than Just a Clock When It Comes to Cancer.

The incidence of cancer, adjusted for secular trends, is directly related to age, and advanced chronologic age is one of the most significant risk factors for cancer. Organismal aging is associated with changes at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels and is affected by both genetic and environmental factors. The specific mechanisms through which these age-associated molecular changes contribute to the increased risk of aging-related disease, such as cancer, are incompletely understood. DNA methylation, a prominent epigenetic mark, also changes over a lifetime as part of an "epigenetic aging" process. Here, we give an update and review of epigenetic aging, in particular, the phenomena of epigenetic drift and epigenetic clock, with regard to its implication in cancer etiology. We discuss the discovery of the DNA methylation-based biomarkers for biological tissue age and the construction of various epigenetic age estimators for human clinical outcomes and health/life span. Recent studies in various types of cancer point to the significance of epigenetic aging in tumorigenesis and its potential use for cancer risk prediction. Future studies are needed to assess the potential clinical impact of strategies focused on lowering cancer risk by preventing premature aging or promoting healthy aging.

Dysfunctional epigenetic aging of the normal colon and colorectal cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Chronological age is a prominent risk factor for many types of cancers including colorectal cancer (CRC). Yet, the risk of CRC varies substantially between individuals, even within the same age group, which may reflect heterogeneity in biological tissue aging between people. Epigenetic clocks based on DNA methylation are a useful measure of the biological aging process with the potential to serve as a biomarker of an individual's susceptibility to age-related diseases such as CRC. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide DNA methylation study on samples of normal colon mucosa (N = 334). Subjects were assigned to three cancer risk groups (low, medium, and high) based on their personal adenoma or cancer history. Using previously established epigenetic clocks (Hannum, Horvath, PhenoAge, and EpiTOC), we estimated the biological age of each sample and assessed for epigenetic age acceleration in the samples by regressing the estimated biological age on the individual's chronological age. We compared the epigenetic age acceleration between different risk groups using a multivariate linear regression model with the adjustment for gender and cell-type fractions for each epigenetic clock. An epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) was performed to identify differential methylation changes associated with CRC risk. RESULTS: Each epigenetic clock was significantly correlated with the chronological age of the subjects, and the Horvath clock exhibited the strongest correlation in all risk groups (r > 0.8, p < 1 × 10-30). The PhenoAge clock (p = 0.0012) revealed epigenetic age deceleration in the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: Among the four DNA methylation-based measures of biological age, the Horvath clock is the most accurate for estimating the chronological age of individuals. Individuals with a high risk for CRC have epigenetic age deceleration in their normal colons measured by the PhenoAge clock, which may reflect a dysfunctional epigenetic aging process.

Implications of Epigenetic Drift in Colorectal Neoplasia.

Many normal tissues undergo age-related drift in DNA methylation, providing a quantitative measure of tissue age. Here, we identify and validate 781 CpG islands (CGI) that undergo significant methylomic drift in 232 normal colorectal tissues and show that these CGI continue to drift in neoplasia while retaining significant correlations across samples. However, compared with normal colon, this drift advanced (∼3-4-fold) faster in neoplasia, consistent with increased cell proliferation during neoplastic progression. The observed drift patterns were broadly consistent with modeled adenoma-to-carcinoma sojourn time distributions from colorectal cancer incidence data. These results support the hypothesis that, beginning with the founder premalignant cell, cancer precursors frequently sojourn for decades before turning into cancer, implying that the founder cell typically arises early in life. At least 77% to 89% of the observed drift variance in distal and rectal tumors was explained by stochastic variability associated with neoplastic progression, whereas only 55% of the variance was explained for proximal tumors. However, gene-CGI pairs in the proximal colon that underwent drift were significantly and primarily negatively correlated with cancer gene expression, suggesting that methylomic drift participates in the clonal evolution of colorectal cancer. Methylomic drift advanced in colorectal neoplasia, consistent with extended sojourn time distributions, which accounts for a significant fraction of epigenetic heterogeneity in colorectal cancer. Importantly, these estimated long-duration premalignant sojourn times suggest that early dietary and lifestyle interventions may be more effective than later changes in reducing colorectal cancer incidence. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings present age-related methylomic drift in colorectal neoplasia as evidence that premalignant cells can persist for decades before becoming cancerous.See related commentary by Sapienza, p. 437.