Intratumoral presence of the genotoxic gut bacteria pks+ E. coli, Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis, and Fusobacterium nucleatum and their association with clinicopathological and molecular features of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate clinicopathological and molecular tumour features associated with intratumoral pks+ Escherichia coli (pks+E.coli+), pks+E.coli- (non-E.coli bacteria harbouring the pks island), Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) and Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum). METHODS: We screened 1697 tumour-derived DNA samples from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry, Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study and the ANGELS study using targeted PCR. RESULTS: Pks+E.coli+ was associated with male sex (P < 0.01) and APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation (P = 0.03). The association between pks+E.coli+ and APC:c.835-8 A > G was specific to early-onset CRCs (diagnosed<45years, P = 0.02). The APC:c.835-A > G was not associated with pks+E.coli- (P = 0.36). F. nucleatum was associated with DNA mismatch repair deficiency (MMRd), BRAF:c.1799T>A p.V600E mutation, CpG island methylator phenotype, proximal tumour location, and high levels of tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (Ps < 0.01). In the stratified analysis by MMRd subgroups, F. nucleatum was associated with Lynch syndrome, MLH1 methylated and double MMR somatic mutated MMRd subgroups (Ps < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Intratumoral pks+E.coli+ but not pks+E.coli- are associated with CRCs harbouring the APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation, suggesting that this mutation is specifically related to DNA damage from colibactin-producing E.coli exposures. F. nucleatum was associated with both hereditary and sporadic MMRd subtypes, suggesting the MMRd tumour microenvironment is important for F. nucleatum colonisation irrespective of its cause.

Gene-specific ACMG/AMP classification criteria for germline APC variants: Recommendations from the ClinGen InSiGHT Hereditary Colorectal Cancer/Polyposis Variant Curation Expert Panel.

PURPOSE: The Hereditary Colorectal Cancer/Polyposis Variant Curation Expert Panel (VCEP) was established by the International Society for Gastrointestinal Hereditary Tumours and the Clinical Genome Resource, who set out to develop recommendations for the interpretation of germline APC variants underlying Familial Adenomatous Polyposis, the most frequent hereditary polyposis syndrome. METHODS: Through a rigorous process of database analysis, literature review, and expert elicitation, the APC VCEP derived gene-specific modifications to the ACMG/AMP (American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics and Association for Molecular Pathology) variant classification guidelines and validated such criteria through the pilot classification of 58 variants. RESULTS: The APC-specific criteria represented gene- and disease-informed specifications, including a quantitative approach to allele frequency thresholds, a stepwise decision tool for truncating variants, and semiquantitative evaluations of experimental and clinical data. Using the APC-specific criteria, 47% (27/58) of pilot variants were reclassified including 14 previous variants of uncertain significance (VUS). CONCLUSION: The APC-specific ACMG/AMP criteria preserved the classification of well-characterized variants on ClinVar while substantially reducing the number of VUS by 56% (14/25). Moving forward, the APC VCEP will continue to interpret prioritized lists of VUS, the results of which will represent the most authoritative variant classification for widespread clinical use.

Germline mutations in WNK2 could be associated with serrated polyposis syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Patients with serrated polyposis syndrome (SPS) have multiple and/or large serrated colonic polyps and higher risk for colorectal cancer. SPS inherited genetic basis is mostly unknown. We aimed to identify new germline predisposition factors for SPS by functionally evaluating a candidate gene and replicating it in additional SPS cohorts. METHODS: After a previous whole-exome sequencing in 39 SPS patients from 16 families (discovery cohort), we sequenced specific genes in an independent validation cohort of 211 unrelated SPS cases. Additional external replication was also available in 297 SPS cases. The WNK2 gene was disrupted in HT-29 cells by gene editing, and WNK2 variants were transfected using a lentiviral delivery system. Cells were analysed by immunoblots, real-time PCR and functional assays monitoring the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway, cell cycle progression, survival and adhesion. RESULTS: We identified 2 rare germline variants in the WNK2 gene in the discovery cohort, 3 additional variants in the validation cohort and 10 other variants in the external cohorts. Variants c.2105C>T (p.Pro702Leu), c.4820C>T (p.Ala1607Val) and c.6157G>A (p.Val2053Ile) were functionally characterised, displaying higher levels of phospho-PAK1/2, phospho-ERK1/2, CCND1, clonogenic capacity and MMP2. CONCLUSION: After whole-exome sequencing in SPS cases with familial aggregation and replication of results in additional cohorts, we identified rare germline variants in the WNK2 gene. Functional studies suggested germline WNK2 variants affect protein function in the context of the MAPK pathway, a molecular hallmark in this disease.

A tumor focused approach to resolving the etiology of DNA mismatch repair deficient tumors classified as suspected Lynch syndrome.

Routine screening of tumors for DNA mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency (dMMR) in colorectal (CRC), endometrial (EC) and sebaceous skin (SST) tumors leads to a significant proportion of unresolved cases classified as suspected Lynch syndrome (SLS). SLS cases (n = 135) were recruited from Family Cancer Clinics across Australia and New Zealand. Targeted panel sequencing was performed on tumor (n = 137; 80×CRCs, 33×ECs and 24xSSTs) and matched blood-derived DNA to assess for microsatellite instability status, tumor mutation burden, COSMIC tumor mutational signatures and to identify germline and somatic MMR gene variants. MMR immunohistochemistry (IHC) and MLH1 promoter methylation were repeated. In total, 86.9% of the 137 SLS tumors could be resolved into established subtypes. For 22.6% of these resolved SLS cases, primary MLH1 epimutations (2.2%) as well as previously undetected germline MMR pathogenic variants (1.5%), tumor MLH1 methylation (13.1%) or false positive dMMR IHC (5.8%) results were identified. Double somatic MMR gene mutations were the major cause of dMMR identified across each tumor type (73.9% of resolved cases, 64.2% overall, 70% of CRC, 45.5% of ECs and 70.8% of SSTs). The unresolved SLS tumors (13.1%) comprised tumors with only a single somatic (7.3%) or no somatic (5.8%) MMR gene mutations. A tumor-focused testing approach reclassified 86.9% of SLS into Lynch syndrome, sporadic dMMR or MMR-proficient cases. These findings support the incorporation of tumor sequencing and alternate MLH1 methylation assays into clinical diagnostics to reduce the number of SLS patients and provide more appropriate surveillance and screening recommendations.

Body Mass Index, sex, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug medications, smoking and alcohol are differentially associated with World Health Organisation criteria and colorectal cancer risk in people with Serrated Polyposis Syndrome: an Australian case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: The unknown aetiology of Serrated Polyposis Syndrome (SPS) impedes risk prediction and prevention. We investigated risk factors for SPS, overall and stratified by World Health Organization (WHO)2010 clinical criteria and by colorectal cancer (CRC). METHOD: A retrospective case-control study involving a cross-sectional analysis from 350 unrelated individuals with SPS from the Genetics of Colonic Polyposis Study and 714 controls from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to determine the association between risk factors and SPS and risk factors associated with CRC in SPS. RESULTS: Female biological sex (odds ratio (OR) = 4.54; 95%Confidence interval (CI) = 2.77-7.45), increasing body mass index (BMI) at age 20 years (OR = 1.09; 95%CI = 1.04-1.13), hormone replacement therapy (OR = 0.44; 95%CI = 0.20.98), and increasing weekly folate intake (OR = 0.82; 95%CI = 0.75-0.90) were associated with SPS by multivariate analysis. Increasing weekly calcium intake (OR = 0.79; 95%CI = 0.64-0.97) and smoking > 10 cigarettes daily (OR = 0.45; 95%CI = 0.23-0.86) were associated with WHO criterion I only. The consumption of 1-100 g of alcohol per week (OR = 0.39; 95%CI = 0.18-0.83) was associated with WHO criterion III only. Smoking 1-5 cigarettes daily (OR = 2.35; 95%CI = 1.09-5.05), weekly non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAIDs) intake (OR = 0.88; 95%CI = 0.78-0.99), and increased height (OR = 1.09; 95% = 1.05-1.13), were associated with SPS fulfilling both WHO criteria I and III. Moreover, weekly NSAIDs intake (OR = 0.81; 95%CI = 0.67-0.98) was associated with a reduced likelihood of CRC in SPS. CONCLUSION: We identified novel risk and potential protective factors associated with SPS, some specific for certain WHO2010 criteria. Weekly use of NSAIDs may reduce the risk of CRC in people with SPS.

Screening and risk reducing surgery for endometrial or ovarian cancers in Lynch syndrome: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Lynch syndrome is a hereditary cancer syndrome caused by mismatch repair gene mutations, and female carriers are at an increased risk of endometrial and ovarian cancer. The best approach to screening is not yet clear and practice varies across countries and centers. We aimed to provide evidence to inform the best approach to screening and risk reduction. METHODS: A systematic search of the literature was conducted (Medline, Embase, PubMed). Studies evaluating the following were included: women with Lynch syndrome (by mismatch repair mutation or Amsterdam II criteria), screening methods for endometrial and/or ovarian cancer, intervention included endometrial biopsy, transvaginal ultrasound, or serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125), outcomes evaluated were number of cancers and/or endometrial hyperplasia. RESULTS: A total of 18 studies of Lynch syndrome carriers which screened for endometrial cancer using transvaginal ultrasound and/or hysteroscopy/endometrial biopsy revealed an incidence of 3.9% at the time of screening. Most (64.1%) endometrial cancers detected were from screening, with the balance detected in symptomatic women at the first screening visits, regular review, or between screening intervals. In mismatch repair carriers, the overall sensitivity of endometrial screening was 66.7%, and the number needed to screen ranged between 4 and 38 (median 7). The sensitivity of endometrial biopsy was 57.1% and the number needed to screen was 23-380 (median 78). The sensitivity of transvaginal ultrasound was 34.4% and the number needed to screen was 35-973 (median 170). Fourteen studies which screened for ovarian cancer using transvaginal ultrasound and/or CA-125 revealed an incidence of 1.3% at the time of screening and 42.9% of ovarian cancers were detected at asymptomatic screening. The sensitivity of ovarian screening was 54.6%, and the number needed to screen was 9-191 (median 23) in mismatch repair carriers. Thirteen studies reported 5.8% incident endometrial cancers and 0.5% ovarian cancers at time of risk reducing surgery. CONCLUSIONS: There is limited evidence to support screening for endometrial and ovarian cancer in Lynch syndrome and data on mortality reduction are not available. Further prospective, randomized trials comparing targeted screening methods are needed. Risk reducing surgery remains the most reliable way to reduce endometrial and ovarian cancer risk in Lynch syndrome.

Evaluating the utility of tumour mutational signatures for identifying hereditary colorectal cancer and polyposis syndrome carriers.

OBJECTIVE: Germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes and in the base excision repair gene MUTYH underlie hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC) and polyposis syndromes. We evaluated the robustness and discriminatory potential of tumour mutational signatures in CRCs for identifying germline PV carriers. DESIGN: Whole-exome sequencing of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) CRC tissue was performed on 33 MMR germline PV carriers, 12 biallelic MUTYH germline PV carriers, 25 sporadic MLH1 methylated MMR-deficient CRCs (MMRd controls) and 160 sporadic MMR-proficient CRCs (MMRp controls) and included 498 TCGA CRC tumours. COSMIC V3 single base substitution (SBS) and indel (ID) mutational signatures were assessed for their ability to differentiate CRCs that developed in carriers from non-carriers. RESULTS: The combination of mutational signatures SBS18 and SBS36 contributing >30% of a CRC's signature profile was able to discriminate biallelic MUTYH carriers from all other non-carrier control CRCs with 100% accuracy (area under the curve (AUC) 1.0). SBS18 and SBS36 were associated with specific MUTYH variants p.Gly396Asp (p=0.025) and p.Tyr179Cys (p=5×10-5), respectively. The combination of ID2 and ID7 could discriminate the 33 MMR PV carrier CRCs from the MMRp control CRCs (AUC 0.99); however, SBS and ID signatures, alone or in combination, could not provide complete discrimination (AUC 0.79) between CRCs from MMR PV carriers and sporadic MMRd controls. CONCLUSION: Assessment of SBS and ID signatures can discriminate CRCs from biallelic MUTYH carriers and MMR PV carriers from non-carriers with high accuracy, demonstrating utility as a potential diagnostic and variant classification tool.

A prospective prostate cancer screening programme for men with pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes (IMPACT): initial results from an international prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Lynch syndrome is a rare familial cancer syndrome caused by pathogenic variants in the mismatch repair genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, or PMS2, that cause predisposition to various cancers, predominantly colorectal and endometrial cancer. Data are emerging that pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes increase the risk of early-onset aggressive prostate cancer. The IMPACT study is prospectively assessing prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in men with germline mismatch repair pathogenic variants. Here, we report the usefulness of PSA screening, prostate cancer incidence, and tumour characteristics after the first screening round in men with and without these germline pathogenic variants. METHODS: The IMPACT study is an international, prospective study. Men aged 40-69 years without a previous prostate cancer diagnosis and with a known germline pathogenic variant in the MLH1, MSH2, or MSH6 gene, and age-matched male controls who tested negative for a familial pathogenic variant in these genes were recruited from 34 genetic and urology clinics in eight countries, and underwent a baseline PSA screening. Men who had a PSA level higher than 3·0 ng/mL were offered a transrectal, ultrasound-guided, prostate biopsy and a histopathological analysis was done. All participants are undergoing a minimum of 5 years' annual screening. The primary endpoint was to determine the incidence, stage, and pathology of screening-detected prostate cancer in carriers of pathogenic variants compared with non-carrier controls. We used Fisher's exact test to compare the number of cases, cancer incidence, and positive predictive values of the PSA cutoff and biopsy between carriers and non-carriers and the differences between disease types (ie, cancer vs no cancer, clinically significant cancer vs no cancer). We assessed screening outcomes and tumour characteristics by pathogenic variant status. Here we present results from the first round of PSA screening in the IMPACT study. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00261456, and is now closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between Sept 28, 2012, and March 1, 2020, 828 men were recruited (644 carriers of mismatch repair pathogenic variants [204 carriers of MLH1, 305 carriers of MSH2, and 135 carriers of MSH6] and 184 non-carrier controls [65 non-carriers of MLH1, 76 non-carriers of MSH2, and 43 non-carriers of MSH6]), and in order to boost the sample size for the non-carrier control groups, we randomly selected 134 non-carriers from the BRCA1 and BRCA2 cohort of the IMPACT study, who were included in all three non-carrier cohorts. Men were predominantly of European ancestry (899 [93%] of 953 with available data), with a mean age of 52·8 years (SD 8·3). Within the first screening round, 56 (6%) men had a PSA concentration of more than 3·0 ng/mL and 35 (4%) biopsies were done. The overall incidence of prostate cancer was 1·9% (18 of 962; 95% CI 1·1-2·9). The incidence among MSH2 carriers was 4·3% (13 of 305; 95% CI 2·3-7·2), MSH2 non-carrier controls was 0·5% (one of 210; 0·0-2·6), MSH6 carriers was 3·0% (four of 135; 0·8-7·4), and none were detected among the MLH1 carriers, MLH1 non-carrier controls, and MSH6 non-carrier controls. Prostate cancer incidence, using a PSA threshold of higher than 3·0 ng/mL, was higher in MSH2 carriers than in MSH2 non-carrier controls (4·3% vs 0·5%; p=0·011) and MSH6 carriers than MSH6 non-carrier controls (3·0% vs 0%; p=0·034). The overall positive predictive value of biopsy using a PSA threshold of 3·0 ng/mL was 51·4% (95% CI 34·0-68·6), and the overall positive predictive value of a PSA threshold of 3·0 ng/mL was 32·1% (20·3-46·0). INTERPRETATION: After the first screening round, carriers of MSH2 and MSH6 pathogenic variants had a higher incidence of prostate cancer compared with age-matched non-carrier controls. These findings support the use of targeted PSA screening in these men to identify those with clinically significant prostate cancer. Further annual screening rounds will need to confirm these findings. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, The Ronald and Rita McAulay Foundation, the National Institute for Health Research support to Biomedical Research Centres (The Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust; Oxford; Manchester and the Cambridge Clinical Research Centre), Mr and Mrs Jack Baker, the Cancer Council of Tasmania, Cancer Australia, Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia, Cancer Council of Victoria, Cancer Council of South Australia, the Victorian Cancer Agency, Cancer Australia, Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia, Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer (AECC), the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER), the Institut Català de la Salut, Autonomous Government of Catalonia, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, National Institutes of Health National Cancer Institute, Swedish Cancer Society, General Hospital in Malmö Foundation for Combating Cancer.

Potential impact of family history-based screening guidelines on the detection of early-onset colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Initiating screening at an earlier age based on cancer family history is one of the primary recommended strategies for the prevention and detection of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), but data supporting the effectiveness of this approach are limited. The authors assessed the performance of family history-based guidelines for identifying individuals with EOCRC. METHODS: The authors conducted a population-based, case-control study of individuals aged 40 to 49 years with (2473 individuals) and without (772 individuals) incident CRC in the Colon Cancer Family Registry from 1998 through 2007. They estimated the sensitivity and specificity of family history-based criteria jointly recommended by the American Cancer Society, the US Multi-Society Task Force on CRC, and the American College of Radiology in 2008 for early screening, and the age at which each participant could have been recommended screening initiation if these criteria had been applied. RESULTS: Family history-based early screening criteria were met by approximately 25% of cases (614 of 2473 cases) and 10% of controls (74 of 772 controls), with a sensitivity of 25% and a specificity of 90% for identifying EOCRC cases aged 40 to 49 years. Among 614 individuals meeting early screening criteria, 98.4% could have been recommended screening initiation at an age younger than the observed age of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Of CRC cases aged 40 to 49 years, 1 in 4 met family history-based early screening criteria, and nearly all cases who met these criteria could have had CRC diagnosed earlier (or possibly even prevented) if earlier screening had been implemented as per family history-based guidelines. Additional strategies are needed to improve the detection and prevention of EOCRC for individuals not meeting family history criteria for early screening.

Medically actionable pathogenic variants in a population of 13,131 healthy elderly individuals.

PURPOSE: To measure the prevalence of medically actionable pathogenic variants (PVs) among a population of healthy elderly individuals. METHODS: We used targeted sequencing to detect pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in 55 genes associated with autosomal dominant medically actionable conditions, among a population of 13,131 individuals aged 70 or older (mean age 75 years) enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial. Participants had no previous diagnosis or current symptoms of cardiovascular disease, physical disability or dementia, and no current diagnosis of life-threatening cancer. Variant curation followed American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) standards. RESULTS: One in 75 (1.3%) healthy elderly individuals carried a PV. This was lower than rates reported from population-based studies, which have ranged from 1.8% to 3.4%. We detected 20 PV carriers for Lynch syndrome (MSH6/MLH1/MSH2/PMS2) and 13 for familial hypercholesterolemia (LDLR/APOB/PCSK9). Among 7056 female participants, we detected 15 BRCA1/BRCA2 PV carriers (1 in 470 females). We detected 86 carriers of PVs in lower-penetrance genes associated with inherited cardiac disorders. CONCLUSION: Medically actionable PVs are carried in a healthy elderly population. Our findings raise questions about the actionability of lower-penetrance genes, especially when PVs are detected in the absence of symptoms and/or family history of disease.

The predicted impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing of people with incident colorectal cancer for Lynch syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing for Lynch syndrome (LS) in people with incident colorectal cancer (CRC) in Australia. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: We investigated the impact of LS testing strategies in a micro-simulation model (Policy1-Lynch), explicitly modelling the cost of testing all patients diagnosed with incident CRC during 2017, with detailed modelling of outcomes for patients identified as LS carriers (probands) and their at-risk relatives throughout their lifetimes. For people with confirmed LS, we modelled ongoing colonoscopic surveillance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost-effectiveness of six universal tumour testing strategies (testing for DNA mismatch repair deficiencies) and of universal germline gene panel testing of patients with incident CRC; impact on cost-effectiveness of restricting testing by age at CRC diagnosis (all ages, under 50/60/70 years) and of colonoscopic surveillance interval (one, two years). RESULTS: The cost-effectiveness ratio of universal tumour testing strategies (annual colonoscopic surveillance, no testing age limit) compared with no testing ranged from $28 915 to $31 904/life-year saved (LYS) (indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: $30 000-$50 000/LYS). These strategies could avert 184-189 CRC deaths with an additional 30 597-31 084 colonoscopies over the lifetimes of 1000 patients with incident CRC with LS and 1420 confirmed LS carrier relatives (164-166 additional colonoscopies/death averted). The most cost-effective strategy was immunohistochemistry and BRAF V600E testing (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER], $28 915/LYS). Universal germline gene panel testing was not cost-effective compared with universal tumour testing strategies (ICER, $2.4 million/LYS). Immunohistochemistry and BRAF V600E testing was cost-effective at all age limits when paired with 2-yearly colonoscopic surveillance (ICER, $11 525-$32 153/LYS), and required 4778-15 860 additional colonoscopies to avert 46-181 CRC deaths (88-103 additional colonoscopies/death averted). CONCLUSIONS: Universal tumour testing strategies for guiding germline genetic testing of people with incident CRC for LS in Australia are likely to be cost-effective compared with no testing. Universal germline gene panel testing would not currently be cost-effective.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus, blood cholesterol, triglyceride and colorectal cancer risk in Lynch syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus and high total cholesterol and triglycerides are known to be associated with increased colorectal cancer risk for the general population. These associations are unknown for people with a germline DNA mismatch repair gene mutation (Lynch syndrome), who are at high risk of colorectal cancer. METHODS: This study included 2023 (56.4% female) carriers with a mismatch repair gene mutation (737 in MLH1, 928 in MSH2, 230 in MSH6, 106 in PMS2, 22 in EPCAM) recruited by the Colon Cancer Family Registry between 1998 and 2012. Weighted Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between self-reported type 2 diabetes, high cholesterol, triglyceride and colorectal cancer risk. RESULTS: Overall, 802 carriers were diagnosed with colorectal cancer at a median age of 42 years. A higher risk of colorectal cancer was observed in those with self-reported type-2 diabetes (HR 1.92; 95% CI, 1.03-3.58) and high cholesterol (HR 1.76; CI 1.23-2.52) compared with those without these conditions. There was no evidence of high triglyceride being associated with colorectal cancer risk. CONCLUSION: For people with Lynch syndrome, self-reported type-2 diabetes mellitus and high cholesterol were associated with increased colorectal cancer risk.

Evaluation of the benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of potential alternatives to iFOBT testing for colorectal cancer screening in Australia.

The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) will fully roll-out 2-yearly screening using the immunochemical Faecal Occult Blood Testing (iFOBT) in people aged 50 to 74 years by 2020. In this study, we aimed to estimate the comparative health benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of screening with iFOBT, versus other potential alternative or adjunctive technologies. A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate a total of 13 screening approaches involving use of iFOBT, colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, computed tomographic colonography (CTC), faecal DNA (fDNA) and plasma DNA (pDNA), in people aged 50 to 74 years. All strategies were evaluated in three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence, (ii) high (but imperfect) adherence, and (iii) low adherence. When assuming perfect adherence, the most effective strategies involved using iFOBT (annually, or biennially with/without adjunct sigmoidoscopy either at 50, or at 54, 64 and 74 years for individuals with negative iFOBT), or colonoscopy (10-yearly, or once-off at 50 years combined with biennial iFOBT). Colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) reductions for these strategies were 51-67(74-80)% in comparison with no screening; 2-yearly iFOBT screening (i.e. the NBCSP) would be associated with reductions of 51(74)%. Only 2-yearly iFOBT screening was found to be cost-effective in all scenarios in context of an indicative willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/life-year saved (LYS); this strategy was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$2,984/LYS-A$5,981/LYS (depending on adherence). The fully rolled-out NBCSP is highly cost-effective, and is also one of the most effective approaches for bowel cancer screening in Australia.

Family history-based colorectal cancer screening in Australia: A modelling study of the costs, benefits, and harms of different participation scenarios.

BACKGROUND: The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) was introduced in 2006. When fully implemented, the programme will invite people aged 50 to 74 to complete an immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) every 2 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To investigate colorectal cancer (CRC) screening occurring outside of the NBCSP, we classified participants (n = 2,480) in the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR) into 3 risk categories (average, moderately increased, and potentially high) based on CRC family history and assessed their screening practices according to national guidelines. We developed a microsimulation to compare hypothetical screening scenarios (70% and 100% uptake) to current participation levels (baseline) and evaluated clinical outcomes and cost for each risk category. The 2 main limitations of this study are as follows: first, the fact that our cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a third-party payer perspective, which does not include indirect costs and results in overestimated cost-effectiveness ratios, and second, that our natural history model of CRC does not include polyp sojourn time, which determines the rate of cancerous transformation. Screening uptake was low across all family history risk categories (64%-56% reported no screening). For participants at average risk, 18% reported overscreening, while 37% of those in the highest risk categories screened according to guidelines. Higher screening levels would substantially reduce CRC mortality across all risk categories (95 to 305 fewer deaths per 100,000 persons in the 70% scenario versus baseline). For those at average risk, a fully implemented NBCSP represented the most cost-effective approach to prevent CRC deaths (AUS$13,000-16,000 per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]). For those at moderately increased risk, higher adherence to recommended screening was also highly cost-effective (AUS$19,000-24,000 per QALY). CONCLUSION: Investing in public health strategies to increase adherence to appropriate CRC screening will save lives and deliver high value for money.

Correction: Risk of colorectal cancer for carriers of a germ-line mutation in POLE or POLD1.

The abstract to this article contained errors in the Results and Conclusions section. The corrected sections are shown below.

Risk of colorectal cancer for carriers of a germ-line mutation in POLE or POLD1.

BACKGROUND: Germ-line mutations in the exonuclease domains of the POLE and POLD1 genes are associated with an increased, but yet unquantified, risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: We identified families with POLE or POLD1 variants by searching PubMed for relevant studies prior to October 2016 and by genotyping 669 population-based CRC cases diagnosed in patients under 60 years of age, from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry. We estimated the age-specific cumulative risks (penetrance) using a modified segregation analysis. RESULTS: We observed 67 CRCs (mean age at diagnosis = 50.2 (SD = 13.8) years) among 364 first- and second-degree relatives from 41 POLE families, and 6 CRCs (mean age at diagnosis = 39.7 (SD = 6.83) years) among 69 relatives from 9 POLD1 families. We estimated risks of CRC up to the age of 70 years (95% confidence interval) for males and females, respectively, to be 28% (95% CI, 10­42%) and 21% (95% CI, 7­33%) for POLE mutation carriers and 90% (95% CI, 33­99%) and 82% (95% CI, 26­99%) for POLD1 mutation carriers. CONCLUSION: CRC risks for POLE mutation carriers are sufficiently high to warrant consideration of colonoscopy screening and implementation of management guidelines recommended for MSH6 mutation carriers in cases of Lynch syndrome. Refinement of estimates of CRC risk for POLD1 carriers is needed; however, clinical management recommendations could follow those made for POLE carriers.

Revised Australian national guidelines for colorectal cancer screening: family history.

INTRODUCTION: Screening is an effective means for colorectal cancer prevention and early detection. Family history is strongly associated with colorectal cancer risk. We describe the rationale, evidence and recommendations for colorectal cancer screening by family history for people without a genetic syndrome, as reported in the 2017 revised Australian guidelines. Main recommendations: Based on 10-year risks of colorectal cancer, people at near average risk due to no or weak family history (category 1) are recommended screening by immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) every 2 years from age 50 to 74 years. Individuals with moderate risk due to their family history (category 2) are recommended biennial iFOBT from age 40 to 49 years, then colonoscopy every 5 years from age 50 to 74 years. People with a high risk due to their family history (category 3) are recommended biennial iFOBT from age 35 to 44 years, then colonoscopy every 5 years from age 45 to 74 years. Changes in management as a result of the guidelines: By 2019, the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program will offer all Australians free biennial iFOBT screening from age 50 to 74 years, consistent with the recommendations in these guidelines for category 1. Compared with the 2005 guidelines, there are some minor changes in the family history inclusion criteria for categories 1 and 2; the genetic syndromes have been removed from category 3 and, as a consequence, colonoscopy screening is now every 5 years; and for categories 2 and 3, screening begins with iFOBT for people aged 40 and 35 years, respectively, before transitioning to colonoscopy after 10 years.

Predicting response after infliximab salvage in acute severe ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a medical emergency requiring prompt therapeutic intervention. Although infliximab has been used as salvage therapy for over 15 years, clinical predictors of treatment success are lacking. We performed a retrospective analysis to identify factors that predict colectomy and may guide dose intensification. METHODS: Fifty-four hospitalized patients received infliximab for ASUC at seven Australian centers (April 2014-May 2015). Follow-up was over 12 months. The data were primarily analyzed for predictors of colectomy. Accelerated (AI) versus standard (SI) infliximab induction strategies were also compared. RESULTS: Of 54 patients identified, the overall colectomy rate was 15.38% (8/52) at 3 months and 26.92% (14/52) at 12 months. Two patients were lost to follow-up. There was a numerically higher colectomy rate in those treated with AI compared with SI (P = 0.3); however, those treated with AI had more severe biochemical disease. A C-reactive protein (CRP)/albumin ratio cut-off of 0.37 post-commencement of infliximab and before discharge was a significant predictor of colectomy with an area under receiver operating curve of 0.73. Pretreatment CRP and albumin levels were not predictive of colectomy. A Mayo Endoscopic Score of 2 had a 94% PPV for avoidance of colectomy following infliximab salvage. CONCLUSIONS: The baseline Mayo Endoscopic Score and the CRP/albumin ratio following infliximab salvage are significant predictors of treatment response for ASUC and identify patients at high risk of colectomy. Whether this risk can be mitigated using infliximab dose intensification requires prospective evaluation before the CRP/albumin ratio can be integrated into ASUC management algorithms.

Tumor testing to identify lynch syndrome in two Australian colorectal cancer cohorts.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Tumor testing of colorectal cancers (CRC) for mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency is an effective approach to identify carriers of germline MMR gene mutation (Lynch syndrome). The aim of this study was to identify MMR gene mutation carriers in two cohorts of population-based CRC utilizing a combination of tumor and germline testing approaches. METHODS: Colorectal cancers from 813 patients diagnosed with CRC < 60 years of age from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR) and from 826 patients from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) were tested for MMR protein expression using immunohistochemistry, microsatellite instability (MSI), BRAFV600E somatic mutation, and for MLH1 methylation. MMR gene mutation testing (Sanger sequencing and Multiplex Ligation Dependent Probe Amplification) was performed on germline DNA of patients with MMR-deficient tumors and a subset of MMR-proficient CRCs. RESULTS: Of the 813 ACCFR probands, 90 probands demonstrated tumor MMR deficiency (11.1%), and 42 had a MMR gene germline mutation (5.2%). For the MCCS, MMR deficiency was identified in the tumors of 103 probands (12.5%) and seven had a germline mutation (0.8%). All the mutation carriers were diagnosed prior to 70 years of age. Probands with a MMR-deficient CRC without MLH1 methylation and a gene mutation were considered Lynch-like and comprised 41.1% and 25.2% of the MMR-deficient CRCs for the ACCFR and MCCS, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Identification of MMR gene mutation carriers in Australian CRC-affected patients is optimized by immunohistochemistry screening of CRC diagnosed before 70 years of age. A significant proportion of MMR-deficient CRCs will have unknown etiology (Lynch-like) proving problematic for clinical management.

Serologic antibodies in relation to outcome in postoperative Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Disease recurs frequently after Crohn's disease resection. The role of serological antimicrobial antibodies in predicting recurrence or as a marker of recurrence has not been well defined. METHODS: A total of 169 patients (523 samples) were prospectively studied, with testing peri-operatively, and 6, 12 and 18 months postoperatively. Colonoscopy was performed at 18 months postoperatively. Serologic antibody presence (perinuclear anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody [pANCA], anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies [ASCA] IgA/IgG, anti-OmpC, anti-CBir1, anti-A4-Fla2, anti-Fla-X) and titer were tested. Quartile sum score (range 6-24), logistic regression analysis, and correlation with phenotype, smoking status, and endoscopic outcome were assessed. RESULTS: Patients with ≥ 2 previous resections were more likely to be anti-OmpC positive (94% vs 55%, ≥ 2 vs < 2, P = 0.001). Recurrence at 18 months was associated with anti-Fla-X positivity at baseline (49% vs 29%; positive vs negative, P = 0.033) and 12 months (52% vs 31%, P = 0.04). Patients positive (n = 28) for all four antibacterial antibodies (anti-CBir1, anti-OmpC, anti-A4-Fla2, and anti-Fla-X) at baseline were more likely to experience recurrence at 18 months than patients negative (n = 32) for all four antibodies (82% vs 18%, P = 0.034; odds ratio 6.4, 95% confidence interval 1.16-34.9). The baseline quartile sum score for all six antimicrobial antibodies was higher in patients with severe recurrence (Rutgeert's i3-i4) at 18 months, adjusted for clinical risk factors (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.34, P = 0.039). Smoking affected antibody status. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-Fla-X and presence of all anti-bacterial antibodies identifies patients at higher risk of early postoperative Crohn's disease recurrence. Serologic screening pre-operatively may help identify patients at increased risk of recurrence.