Cumulative incidence of and risk factors for BCG infection after adjuvant BCG instillations.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the cumulative incidence proportion of disseminated or local Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) infections after adjuvant BCG instillations in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed the timing and occurrence of BCG infections and absolute and relative risk in relation to patient characteristics available in the Swedish nationwide database 'BladderBaSe 2.0'. The cumulative incidence proportion of a BCG infection was indicated by a reported diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) in the patient registry or filing a prescription for tuberculostatic drugs. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence proportion was 1.1% at the 5-year follow-up in 5033 patients exposed to adjuvant BCG instillations. The incidence rate was highest during the first 2 years after start of BCG instillations. Women had a lower risk than men (hazard ratio 0.23, 95% confidence interval 0.07-0.74). Age and calendar time at diagnosis, comorbidity, tumour risk group, previous medication with corticosteroids, immunosuppressive drugs, or time between transurethral resection of the bladder tumour and commencing the adjuvant BCG instillation were not associated with risk. CONCLUSIONS: These data further supports that the overall risk of a BCG infection after BCG-instillation treatment for NMIBC is low. The great majority of infections occur in the first 2 years, calling for an awareness of the diverse symptoms of BCG infection during this period. We provide evidence for male sex as a risk factor; however, the statistical precision is low and with a risk of selection bias, making it difficult to rule out the other suggested risk factors without further studies with different approaches.

Elevated levels of MMP12 sourced from macrophages are associated with poor prognosis in urothelial bladder cancer.

BACKGROUND: Urothelial bladder cancer is most frequently diagnosed at the non-muscle-invasive stage (NMIBC). However, recurrences and interventions for intermediate and high-risk NMIBC patients impact the quality of life. Biomarkers for patient stratification could help to avoid unnecessary interventions whilst indicating aggressive measures when required. METHODS: In this study, immuno-oncology focused, multiplexed proximity extension assays were utilised to analyse plasma (n = 90) and urine (n = 40) samples from 90 newly-diagnosed and treatment-naïve bladder cancer patients. Public single-cell RNA-sequencing and microarray data from patient tumour tissues and murine OH-BBN-induced urothelial carcinomas were also explored to further corroborate the proteomic findings. RESULTS: Plasma from muscle-invasive, urothelial bladder cancer patients displayed higher levels of MMP7 (p = 0.028) and CCL23 (p = 0.03) compared to NMIBC patients, whereas urine displayed higher levels of CD27 (p = 0.044) and CD40 (p = 0.04) in the NMIBC group by two-sided Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Random forest survival and multivariable regression analyses identified increased MMP12 plasma levels as an independent marker (p < 0.001) associated with shorter overall survival (HR = 1.8, p < 0.001, 95% CI:1.3-2.5); this finding was validated in an independent patient OLINK cohort, but could not be established using a transcriptomic microarray dataset. Single-cell transcriptomics analyses indicated tumour-infiltrating macrophages as a putative source of MMP12. CONCLUSIONS: The measurable levels of tumour-localised, immune-cell-derived MMP12 in blood suggest MMP12 as an important biomarker that could complement histopathology-based risk stratification. As MMP12 stems from infiltrating immune cells rather than the tumor cells themselves, analyses performed on tissue biopsy material risk a biased selection of biomarkers produced by the tumour, while ignoring the surrounding microenvironment.

Breast cancer hypoxia in relation to prognosis and benefit from radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery in a large, randomised trial with long-term follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Breast-conserving surgery followed by radiotherapy is part of standard treatment for early-stage breast cancer. Hypoxia is common in cancer and may affect the benefit of radiotherapy. Cells adapt to hypoxic stress largely via the transcriptional activity of hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1α. Here, we aim to determine whether tumour HIF-1α-positivity and hypoxic gene-expression signatures associated with the benefit of radiotherapy, and outcome. METHODS: Tumour HIF-1α-status and expression of hypoxic gene signatures were retrospectively analysed in a clinical trial where 1178 women with primary T1-2N0M0 breast cancer were randomised to receive postoperative radiotherapy or not and followed 15 years for recurrence and 20 years for breast cancer death. RESULTS: The benefit from radiotherapy was similar in patients with HIF-1α-positive and -negative primary tumours. Both ipsilateral and any breast cancer recurrence were more frequent in women with HIF-1α-positive primary tumours (hazard ratio, HR0-5 yrs1.9 [1.3-2.9], p = 0.003 and HR0-5 yrs = 2.0 [1.5-2.8], p < 0.0001). Tumour HIF-1α-positivity is also associated with increased breast cancer death (HR0-10 years 1.9 [1.2-2.9], p = 0.004). Ten of the 11 investigated hypoxic gene signatures correlated positively to HIF-1α-positivity, and 5 to increased rate/risk of recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The benefit of postoperative radiotherapy persisted in patients with hypoxic primary tumours. Patients with hypoxic primary breast tumours had an increased risk of recurrence and breast cancer death.

Nomograms including the UBC® Rapid test to detect primary bladder cancer based on a multicentre dataset.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the clinical utility of the urinary bladder cancer antigen test UBC® Rapid for the diagnosis of bladder cancer (BC) and to develop and validate nomograms to identify patients at high risk of primary BC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 1787 patients from 13 participating centres, who were tested between 2012 and 2020, including 763 patients with BC, were analysed. Urine samples were analysed with the UBC® Rapid test. The nomograms were developed using data from 320 patients and externally validated using data from 274 patients. The diagnostic accuracy of the UBC® Rapid test was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. Brier scores and calibration curves were chosen for the validation. Biopsy-proven BC was predicted using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve for the UBC® Rapid test were 46.4%, 75.5% and 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.64) for low-grade (LG) BC, and 70.5%, 75.5% and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) for high-grade (HG) BC, respectively. Age, UBC® Rapid test results, smoking status and haematuria were identified as independent predictors of primary BC. After external validation, nomograms based on these predictors resulted in areas under the curve of 0.79 (95% CI 0.72-0.87) and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.92-0.98) for predicting LG-BC and HG-BC, respectively, showing excellent calibration associated with a higher net benefit than the UBC® Rapid test alone for low and medium risk levels in decision curve analysis. The R Shiny app allows the results to be explored interactively and can be accessed at www.blucab-index.net. CONCLUSION: The UBC® Rapid test alone has limited clinical utility for predicting the presence of BC. However, its combined use with BC risk factors including age, smoking status and haematuria provides a fast, highly accurate and non-invasive tool for screening patients for primary LG-BC and especially primary HG-BC.

Prognostic and predictive impact of stroma cells defined by PDGFRb expression in early breast cancer: results from the randomized SweBCG91RT trial.

PURPOSE: Predictive biomarkers are needed to aid the individualization of radiotherapy (RT) in breast cancer. Cancer-associated fibroblasts have been implicated in tumor radioresistance and can be identified by platelet-derived growth factor receptor-beta (PDGFRb). This study aims to analyze how PDGFRb expression affects RT benefit in a large randomized RT trial. METHODS: PDGFRb was assessed by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays from 989 tumors of the SweBCG91RT trial, which enrolled lymph node-negative, stage I/IIA breast cancer patients randomized to RT after breast-conserving surgery. Outcomes were analyzed at 10 years for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) and any recurrence and 15 years for breast cancer specific death (BCSD). RESULTS: PDGFRb expression correlated with estrogen receptor negativity and younger age. An increased risk for any recurrence was noted in univariable analysis for the medium (HR 1.58, CI 95% 1.11-2.23, p = 0.011) or PDGFRb high group (1.49, 1.06-2.10, p = 0.021) compared to the low group. No differences in IBTR or BCSD risk were detected. RT benefit regarding IBTR risk was significant in the PDGFRb low (0.29, 0.12-0.67, p = 0.004) and medium (0.31, 0.16-0.59, p < 0.001) groups but not the PDGFRb high group (0.64, 0.36-1.11, p = 0.110) in multivariable analysis. Likewise, risk reduction for any recurrence was less pronounced in the PDGFRb high group. No significant interaction between RT and PDGFRb-score could be detected. CONCLUSION: A higher PDGFRb-score conferred an increased risk of any recurrence, which partly can be explained by its association with estrogen receptor negativity and young age. Reduced RT benefit was noted among patients with high PDGFRb, however without significant interaction.

Association of patients' sex with treatment outcomes after intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin immunotherapy for T1G3/HG bladder cancer.

PURPOSE: To investigate the association of patients' sex with recurrence and disease progression in patients treated with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) for T1G3/HG urinary bladder cancer (UBC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed the data of 2635 patients treated with adjuvant intravesical BCG for T1 UBC between 1984 and 2019. We accounted for missing data using multiple imputations and adjusted for covariate imbalance between males and females using inverse probability weighting (IPW). Crude and IPW-adjusted Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of patients' sex with HG-recurrence and disease progression. RESULTS: A total of 2170 (82%) males and 465 (18%) females were available for analysis. Overall, 1090 (50%) males and 244 (52%) females experienced recurrence, and 391 (18%) males and 104 (22%) females experienced disease progression. On IPW-adjusted Cox regression analyses, female sex was associated with disease progression (HR 1.25, 95%CI 1.01-1.56, p = 0.04) but not with recurrence (HR 1.06, 95%CI 0.92-1.22, p = 0.41). A total of 1056 patients were treated with adequate BCG. In these patients, on IPW-adjusted Cox regression analyses, patients' sex was not associated with recurrence (HR 0.99, 95%CI 0.80-1.24, p = 0.96), HG-recurrence (HR 1.00, 95%CI 0.78-1.29, p = 0.99) or disease progression (HR 1.12, 95%CI 0.78-1.60, p = 0.55). CONCLUSION: Our analysis generates the hypothesis of a differential response to BCG between males and females if not adequately treated. Further studies should focus on sex-based differences in innate and adaptive immune system and their association with BCG response.

Efficacy and safety of tailored and dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy and trastuzumab for resected HER2-positive breast cancer: Results from the phase 3 PANTHER trial.

BACKGROUND: Dose-dense (DD) adjuvant chemotherapy improves outcomes in early breast cancer (BC). However, there are no phase 3 randomized data to inform on its combination with trastuzumab for patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive disease. METHODS: This was a protocol-predefined secondary analysis of the randomized phase 3 Pan-European Tailored Chemotherapy (PANTHER) trial. Women 65 years old or younger with node-positive or high-risk, node-negative BC were randomized 1:1 to either tailored (according to hematologic nadirs) and DD epirubicin and cyclophosphamide followed by docetaxel or standard 5-fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide plus docetaxel every 3 weeks. Patients with HER2-positive disease received 1 year of adjuvant trastuzumab. The primary endpoint was BC relapse-free survival. In addition, HER2-positive patients and an equal number of HER2-negative patients matched for age, treatment group, and institution who were enrolled at Swedish sites were asked to participate in a predefined study of cardiac safety and underwent echocardiography or multigated acquisition scanning and electrocardiography at the baseline and at 4 and 6 years of follow-up. RESULTS: There were 342 HER2-positive patients; 335 received at least 1 dose of trastuzumab, and 29 patients discontinued trastuzumab prematurely. Relapse-free survival was not statistically significantly in favor of the tailored and DD group (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-1.27; P = .231). Cardiac outcomes after 4 and 6 years of follow-up did not differ significantly between HER2-positive and HER2-negative patients or between the 2 treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of DD chemotherapy and trastuzumab decreased the relative risk for relapse by 32% in comparison with standard treatment, a statistically nonsignificant difference. Its efficacy and safety merit further evaluation as part of both escalation and de-escalation strategies.

Treatment and prognosis of patients with urinary bladder cancer with other primary cancers: a nationwide population-based study in the Bladder Cancer Data Base Sweden (BladderBaSe).

OBJECTIVE: To study how patients with urinary bladder cancer (UBC) with previous or concomitant other primary cancers (OPCs) were treated, and to investigate their prognosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using nationwide population-based data in the Bladder Cancer Data Base Sweden (BladderBaSe), we analysed the probability of treatment with curative intent, and UBC-specific and overall survival (OS) in patients with UBC diagnosed in the period 1997-2014 with or without OPC. The analyses considered the patient's characteristics, UBC tumour stage at diagnosis, and site of OPC. RESULTS: There were 38 689 patients, of which 9804 (25%) had OPCs. Those with synchronous OPCs more often had T2 and T3 tumours and clinically distant disease at diagnosis than those with UBC only. Patients with synchronous prostate cancer, female genital cancer and lower gastro-intestinal cancer were more often treated with curative intent than patients with UBC only. When models of survival were adjusted for age at diagnosis, marital status, education, year of diagnosis, Charlson Comorbidity Index and T-stage, UBC-specific survival was similar to patients with UBC only, but OS was lower for patients with synchronous OPC, explained mainly by deaths in OPC primaries with a bad prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: OPC is common in patients with UBC. Treatment for UBC, after or in conjunction with an OPC, should not be neglected and carries just as high a probability of success as treatment in patients with UBC only. The needs of patients with UBC and OPC, and optimisation of their treatment considering their complicated disease trajectory are important areas of research.

No increased risk of short-term complications after radical cystectomy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer among patients treated with preoperative chemotherapy: a nation-wide register-based study.

PURPOSE: Preoperative chemotherapy is underused in conjunction with radical cystectomy (RC) for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) due to concerns for complications and delay of surgery. Prospective data on short-term complications from population-based settings with frequent use of preoperative chemotherapy and standardised reporting of complications is lacking. METHODS: We identified 1,340 patients who underwent RC between 2011 and 2015 in Sweden due to MIBC according to the Swedish Cystectomy Register. These individuals were followed through linkages to several national registers. Propensity score adjusted logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for complications and death within 90 days of surgery, comparing patients receiving preoperative chemotherapy or not. RESULTS: Minimum two cycles of preoperative chemotherapy were given to 519 (39%) of the patients, who on average tended to be younger, have higher education, better physical status, and more advanced bladder cancer than patients not receiving chemotherapy. After adjusting for these and other parameters, there was no association between treatment with preoperative chemotherapy and short-term complications (OR 1.06 95% CI 0.82-1.39) or mortality (OR 0.75 95% CI 0.36-1.55). We observed a risk reduction for gastrointestinal complications among patients who received preoperative chemotherapy compared with those who did not (OR 0.49 95% CI 0.30-0.81). CONCLUSION: This nation-wide population-based observational study does not suggest that preoperative chemotherapy, in a setting with high utilisation of such treatment, is associated with an increased risk of short-term complications in MIBC patients treated with radical cystectomy.

A Nationwide, Population Based Analysis of Patients with Organ Confined, Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Not Receiving Curative Intent Therapy in Sweden from 1997 to 2014.

PURPOSE: While radical cystectomy remains the standard treatment of muscle invasive bladder cancer, the natural history of patients unable or unwilling to receive therapy with curative intent is not well understood. The study objective was to identify these patients in a population based cohort, investigate the clinical profile and describe time to mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed the Bladder Cancer Data Base Sweden, a database collected from 1997 to 2014, and identified 9,811 patients with stage T2-T4 disease. Median overall and cancer specific survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Relative risks due to prognostic factors were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Of the 5,592 patients who did not receive therapy with curative intent 68% were male and 32% were female with a median age of 79 and 81 years, respectively. After 1 year patients had been hospitalized an average of 2.1 times for an average of 18.8 days. Major and minor urological surgeries were the most commonly registered procedures during these hospitalizations. Median overall survival was worse in women than in men (7 vs 8 months). Risk factors for death from bladder cancer were higher tumor stage, age greater than 80 years, later year of diagnosis and female gender. Organ confined disease (T2-T3 M0) was diagnosed in 1,352 patients (24%). These patients had a median of 2.4 hospitalizations per patient during the first 12 months after diagnosis. Half of these hospitalizations were due to cancer or genitourinary symptoms. Median overall survival in the organ confined subgroup was 11 months. Most of these patients had stage N0 disease. They had 2-month longer median overall survival but otherwise similar outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: These patients experience substantial disease specific morbidity. They are hospitalized frequently during the final year of life and primarily die of bladder cancer progression.

Period-specific mean annual hospital volume of radical cystectomy is associated with outcome and perioperative quality of care: a nationwide population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between hospital volume and overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and quality of care of patients with bladder cancer who undergo radical cystectomy (RC), defined as the use of extended lymphadenectomy (eLND), continent reconstruction, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), and treatment delay of <3 months. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used the Bladder Cancer Data Base Sweden (BladderBaSe) to study survival and indicators of perioperative quality of care in all 3172 patients who underwent RC for primary invasive bladder cancer stage T1-T3 in Sweden between 1997 and 2014. The period-specific mean annual hospital volume (PSMAV) during the 3 years preceding surgery was applied as an exposure and analysed using univariate and multivariate mixed models, adjusting for tumour and nodal stage, age, gender, comorbidity, educational level, and NAC. PSMAV was either categorised in tertiles, dichotomised (at ≥25 RCs annually), or used as a continuous variable for every increase of 10 RCs annually. RESULTS: PSMAV in the highest tertile (≥25 RCs annually) was associated with improved OS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-1.0), whereas the corresponding HR for CSS was 0.87 (95% CI 0.73-1.04). With PSMAV as a continuous variable, OS was improved for every increase of 10 RCs annually (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.90-0.99). Moreover, higher PSMAV was associated with increased use of eLND, continent reconstruction and NAC, but also more frequently with a treatment delay of >3 months after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The current study supports centralisation of RC for bladder cancer, but also underpins the need for monitoring treatment delays associated with referral.

Identification and validation of single-sample breast cancer radiosensitivity gene expression predictors.

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant radiotherapy is the standard of care after breast-conserving surgery for primary breast cancer, despite a majority of patients being over- or under-treated. In contrast to adjuvant endocrine therapy and chemotherapy, no diagnostic tests are in clinical use that can stratify patients for adjuvant radiotherapy. This study presents the development and validation of a targeted gene expression assay to predict the risk of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence and response to adjuvant radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery in primary breast cancer. METHODS: Fresh-frozen primary tumors from 336 patients radically (clear margins) operated on with breast-conserving surgery with or without radiotherapy were collected. Patients were split into a discovery cohort (N = 172) and a validation cohort (N = 164). Genes predicting ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence in an Illumina HT12 v4 whole transcriptome analysis were combined with genes identified in the literature (248 genes in total) to develop a targeted radiosensitivity assay on the Nanostring nCounter platform. Single-sample predictors for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence based on a k-top scoring pairs algorithm were trained, stratified for estrogen receptor (ER) status and radiotherapy. Two previously published profiles, the radiosensitivity signature of Speers et al., and the 10-gene signature of Eschrich et al., were also included in the targeted panel. RESULTS: Derived single-sample predictors were prognostic for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence in radiotherapy-treated ER+ patients (AUC 0.67, p = 0.01), ER+ patients without radiotherapy (AUC = 0.89, p = 0.02), and radiotherapy-treated ER- patients (AUC = 0.78, p < 0.001). Among ER+ patients, radiotherapy had an excellent effect on tumors classified as radiosensitive (p < 0.001), while radiotherapy had no effect on tumors classified as radioresistant (p = 0.36) and there was a high risk of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (55% at 10 years). Our single-sample predictors developed in ER+ tumors and the radiosensitivity signature correlated with proliferation, while single-sample predictors developed in ER- tumors correlated with immune response. The 10-gene signature negatively correlated with both proliferation and immune response. CONCLUSIONS: Our targeted single-sample predictors were prognostic for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence and have the potential to stratify patients for adjuvant radiotherapy. The correlation of models with biology may explain the different performance in subgroups of breast cancer.

Parallel Proteomic Workflow for Mass Spectrometric Analysis of Tissue Samples Preserved by Different Methods.

Formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) and optimal cutting temperature (OCT)-embedded and frozen tissue specimens in biobanks are highly valuable in clinical studies but proteomic and post-translational modification (PTM) studies using mass spectrometry (MS) have been limited due to structural arrangement of proteins and contaminations from embedding material. This study aims to develop a parallel proteomic workflow for FFPE and OCT/frozen samples that allows for large-scale, quick, reproducible, qualitative, and quantitative high-resolution MS analysis. The optimized protocol gives details on removal of embedding material, protein extraction, and multienzyme digestion using filter-aided sample preparation method. The method was evaluated by investigating the protein expression levels in nonmuscle-invasive and muscle-invasive bladder cancer samples in two cohorts and MS spectra were carefully reviewed for contaminations. More than 2000 and 3000 proteins in FFPE and OCT/frozen samples, respectively, were identified, and samples could be clustered in different tumor stages based on their protein expression. Furthermore, more than 250 and 400 phosphopeptides could be identified from specific patient samples of FFPE and OCT/frozen, respectively, using titanium dioxide enrichment. The paper presents unique data describing the similarities and differences observed in FFPE and OCT/frozen samples and shows the feasibility to detect proteins and site-specific phosphorylation even after long-term storage of clinical samples.

Long-term safety and survival outcomes from the Scandinavian Breast Group 2004-1 randomized phase II trial of tailored dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy for early breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Although adjuvant polychemotherapy improves outcomes for early breast cancer, the significant variability in terms of pharmacokinetics results in differences in efficacy and both short and long-term toxicities. Retrospective studies support the use of dose tailoring according to the hematologic nadirs. METHODS: The SBG 2004-1 trial was a randomized feasibility phase II study which assessed tailored dose-dense epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (EC) followed by docetaxel (T) (group A), the same regimen with fixed doses (group B) and the TAC regimen (group C). Women aged 18-65 years, ECOG PS 0-1 with at least one positive axillary lymph node were randomized 1:1:1. The primary endpoint of the study was the safety and feasibility of the treatment. Toxicity was graded according to CTC-AE version 3.0. The design and short-term toxicity have been previously published. Here, we report safety and efficacy data after 10 years of follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 124 patients were included in the study. After a median follow-up of 10.3 years, the probability for 10-year survival was 78.5, 75.1, and 63.4% and for relapse free survival 64.1, 71.0, and 59.5% for groups A, B, and C, respectively. There were no cases of clinically diagnosed cardiotoxicity or hematologic malignancies. No patient was lost to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized phase II trial, tailored dose adjuvant chemotherapy was feasible, without an increased risk for long-term adverse events after a median follow-up of 10 years.

Non-linear transformations of age at diagnosis, tumor size, and number of positive lymph nodes in prediction of clinical outcome in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic factors in breast cancer are often measured on a continuous scale, but categorized for clinical decision-making. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate if accounting for continuous non-linear effects of the three factors age at diagnosis, tumor size, and number of positive lymph nodes improves prognostication. These factors will most likely be included in the management of breast cancer patients also in the future, after an expected implementation of gene expression profiling for adjuvant treatment decision-making. METHODS: Four thousand four hundred forty seven and 1132 women with primary breast cancer constituted the derivation and validation set, respectively. Potential non-linear effects on the log hazard of distant recurrences of the three factors were evaluated during 10 years of follow-up. Cox-models of successively increasing complexity: dichotomized predictors, predictors categorized into three or four groups, and predictors transformed using fractional polynomials (FPs) or restricted cubic splines (RCS), were used. Predictive performance was evaluated by Harrell's C-index. RESULTS: Using FP-transformations, non-linear effects were detected for tumor size and number of positive lymph nodes in univariable analyses. For age, non-linear transformations did, however, not improve the model fit significantly compared to the linear identity transformation. As expected, the C-index increased with increasing model complexity for multivariable models including the three factors. By allowing more than one cut-point per factor, the C-index increased from 0.628 to 0.674. The additional gain, as measured by the C-index, when using FP- or RCS-transformations was modest (0.695 and 0.696, respectively). The corresponding C-indices for these four models in the validation set, based on the same transformations and parameter estimates from the derivation set, were 0.675, 0.700, 0.706, and 0.701. CONCLUSIONS: Categorization of each factor into three to four groups was found to improve prognostication compared to dichotomization. The additional gain by allowing continuous non-linear effects modeled by FPs or RCS was modest. However, the continuous nature of these transformations has the advantage of making it possible to form risk groups of any size.

Bladder cancer.

Bladder cancer is a complex disease associated with high morbidity and mortality rates if not treated optimally. Awareness of haematuria as the major presenting symptom is paramount, and early diagnosis with individualised treatment and follow-up is the key to a successful outcome. For non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, the mainstay of treatment is complete resection of the tumour followed by induction and maintenance immunotherapy with intravesical BCG vaccine or intravesical chemotherapy. For muscle-invasive bladder cancer, multimodal treatment involving radical cystectomy with neoadjuvant chemotherapy offers the best chance for cure. Selected patients with muscle-invasive tumours can be offered bladder-sparing trimodality treatment consisting of transurethral resection with chemoradiation. Advanced disease is best treated with systemic cisplatin-based chemotherapy; immunotherapy is emerging as a viable salvage treatment for patients in whom first-line chemotherapy cannot control the disease. Developments in the past 2 years have shed light on genetic subtypes of bladder cancer that might differ from one another in response to various treatments.

FGFR3, TERT and OTX1 as a Urinary Biomarker Combination for Surveillance of Patients with Bladder Cancer in a Large Prospective Multicenter Study.

PURPOSE: Patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer are followed with frequent cystoscopies. In this study FGFR3, TERT and OTX1 were investigated as a diagnostic urinary marker combination during followup of patients with primary nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this international, multicenter, prospective study 977 patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer were included. A total of 2,496 urine samples were collected prior to cystoscopy during regular visits. Sensitivity was estimated to detect concomitant recurrences. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate the development of future recurrences after urinalysis and a negative cystoscopy. RESULTS: Sensitivity of the assay combination for recurrence detection was 57% in patients with primary low grade, nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. However, sensitivity was 83% for recurrences that were pT1 or muscle invasive bladder cancer. Of the cases 2% progressed to muscle invasive bladder cancer. Sensitivity for recurrence detection in patients with primary high grade disease was 72% and 7% of them had progression to muscle invasive bladder cancer. When no concomitant tumor was found by cystoscopy, positive urine samples were more frequently followed by a recurrence over time compared to a negative urine sample (58% vs 36%, p <0.001). High stage recurrences were identified within 1 year after a positive urine test and a negative cystoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Recurrences in patients with primary nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer can be detected by a combination of urine assays. This study supports the value of urinalysis as an alternative diagnostic tool in patients presenting with low grade tumors and as a means to identify high stage tumors earlier.

Validation of a DNA Methylation-Mutation Urine Assay to Select Patients with Hematuria for Cystoscopy.

PURPOSE: Only 3% to 28% of patients referred to the urology clinic for hematuria are diagnosed with bladder cancer. Cystoscopy leads to high diagnostic costs and a high patient burden. Therefore, to improve the selection of patients for cystoscopy and reduce costs and over testing we aimed to validate a recently developed diagnostic urine assay. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Included in study were 200 patients from a total of 3 European countries who underwent cystoscopy for hematuria, including 97 with bladder cancer and 103 with nonmalignant findings. Voided urine samples were collected prior to cystoscopy. DNA was extracted and analyzed for mutations in FGFR3, TERT and HRAS, and methylation of OTX1, ONECUT2 and TWIST1. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between predictor variables and bladder cancer. RESULTS: Combining the methylation and mutation markers with age led to an AUC of 0.96 (95% CI 0.92-0.99) with 93% sensitivity and 86% specificity, and an optimism corrected AUC of 0.95. The AUC was higher for T1 or greater tumors compared to Ta tumors (0.99 vs 0.93). The AUC was also higher for high grade tumors compared to low grade tumors (1.00 vs 0.93). Overall negative predictive value was 99% based on the 5% to 10% prevalence of bladder cancer in patients with hematuria. This would lead to a 77% reduction in diagnostic cystoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Analyzing hematuria patients for the risk of bladder cancer using novel molecular markers may lead to a reduction in diagnostic cystoscopy. Combining methylation analysis (OTX1, ONECUT2 and TWIST1) with mutation analysis (FGFR3, TERT and HRAS) and patient age resulted in a validated accurate prediction model.

Long-term effects on the incidence of second primary cancers in a randomized trial of two and five years of adjuvant tamoxifen.

BACKGROUND: Tamoxifen is a well established treatment for breast cancer, but its long-term effects on the incidence of secondary cancers are not fully evaluated. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We have studied 4128 postmenopausal patients with early stage breast cancer who were alive and free of breast cancer recurrence after two years of tamoxifen, and who were randomized to receive totally two or five years of therapy. RESULTS: Compared to patients randomized to two years of tamoxifen the incidence of contralateral breast cancer [hazard ratio (HR) 0.73; 95% CI 0.56-0.96] and of lung cancer (HR 0.45; 95% CI 0.27-0.77), especially squamous cell and small cell lung cancer, were reduced in the five-year group, and similar results were seen when restricting the analysis to the 10-year period after treatment stopped. An increased incidence of endometrial cancer was observed in the five-year group, but the excess risk decreased over time. CONCLUSION: Further studies of the effects of tamoxifen on the risk of different histological types of lung cancer are needed.

Histological grade provides significant prognostic information in addition to breast cancer subtypes defined according to St Gallen 2013.

BACKGROUND: The St Gallen surrogate definition of the intrinsic subtypes of breast cancer consist of five subgroups based on estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 (HER2), and Ki-67. PgR and Ki-67 are used for discriminating between the 'Luminal A-like' and 'Luminal B-like (HER2-negative)' subtypes. Histological grade (G) has prognostic value in breast cancer; however, its relationship to the St Gallen subtypes is not clear. Based on a previous pilot study, we hypothesized that G could be a primary discriminator for ER-positive/HER2-negative breast cancers that were G1 or G3, whereas Ki-67 and PgR could provide additional prognostic information specifically for patients with G2 tumors. To test this hypothesis, a larger patient cohort was examined. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Six hundred seventy-one patients (≥35 years of age, pT1-2, pN0-1) with ER-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer and complete data for PgR, Ki-67, G, lymph node status, tumor size, age, and distant disease-free survival (DDFS; median follow-up 9.2 years) were included. RESULTS: 'Luminal A-like' tumors were mostly G1 or G2 (90%) whereas 'Luminal B-like' tumors were mostly G2 or G3 (87%) and corresponded with good and poor DDFS, respectively. In 'Luminal B-like' tumors that were G1 (n = 23), no metastasis occurred, whereas 14 of 40 'Luminal A-like' tumors that were G3 metastasized. In the G2 subgroup, low PgR and high Ki-67 were associated with an increased risk of distant metastases, hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8 (0.95-3.4) and 1.5 (0.80-2.8), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ER-positive/HER2-negative/G1 breast cancer have a good prognosis, similar to that of 'Luminal A-like', while those with ER-positive/HER2-negative/G3 breast cancer have a worse prognosis, similar to that of 'Luminal B-like', when assessed independently of PgR and Ki-67. Therapy decisions based on Ki-67 and PgR might thus be restricted to the subgroup G2.