Radiotherapy plus cisplatin or cetuximab in low-risk human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer (De-ESCALaTE HPV): an open-label randomised controlled phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal cancer, a disease affecting younger patients, is rapidly increasing. Cetuximab, an epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor, has been proposed for treatment de-escalation in this setting to reduce the toxicity of standard cisplatin treatment, but no randomised evidence exists for the efficacy of this strategy. METHODS: We did an open-label randomised controlled phase 3 trial at 32 head and neck treatment centres in Ireland, the Netherlands, and the UK, in patients aged 18 years or older with HPV-positive low-risk oropharyngeal cancer (non-smokers or lifetime smokers with a smoking history of <10 pack-years). Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive, in addition to radiotherapy (70 Gy in 35 fractions), either intravenous cisplatin (100 mg/m2 on days 1, 22, and 43 of radiotherapy) or intravenous cetuximab (400 mg/m2 loading dose followed by seven weekly infusions of 250 mg/m2). The primary outcome was overall severe (grade 3-5) toxicity events at 24 months from the end of treatment. The primary outcome was assessed by intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN33522080. FINDINGS: Between Nov 12, 2012, and Oct 1, 2016, 334 patients were recruited (166 in the cisplatin group and 168 in the cetuximab group). Overall (acute and late) severe (grade 3-5) toxicity did not differ significantly between treatment groups at 24 months (mean number of events per patient 4·8 [95% CI 4·2-5·4] with cisplatin vs 4·8 [4·2-5·4] with cetuximab; p=0·98). At 24 months, overall all-grade toxicity did not differ significantly either (mean number of events per patient 29·2 [95% CI 27·3-31·0] with cisplatin vs 30·1 [28·3-31·9] with cetuximab; p=0·49). However, there was a significant difference between cisplatin and cetuximab in 2-year overall survival (97·5% vs 89·4%, hazard ratio 5·0 [95% CI 1·7-14·7]; p=0·001) and 2-year recurrence (6·0% vs 16·1%, 3·4 [1·6-7·2]; p=0·0007). INTERPRETATION: Compared with the standard cisplatin regimen, cetuximab showed no benefit in terms of reduced toxicity, but instead showed significant detriment in terms of tumour control. Cisplatin and radiotherapy should be used as the standard of care for HPV-positive low-risk patients who are able to tolerate cisplatin. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

PET-CT Surveillance versus Neck Dissection in Advanced Head and Neck Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The role of image-guided surveillance as compared with planned neck dissection in the treatment of patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck who have advanced nodal disease (stage N2 or N3) and who have received chemoradiotherapy for primary treatment is a matter of debate. METHODS: In this prospective, randomized, controlled trial, we assessed the noninferiority of positron-emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT)-guided surveillance (performed 12 weeks after the end of chemoradiotherapy, with neck dissection performed only if PET-CT showed an incomplete or equivocal response) to planned neck dissection in patients with stage N2 or N3 disease. The primary end point was overall survival. RESULTS: From 2007 through 2012, we recruited 564 patients (282 patients in the planned-surgery group and 282 patients in the surveillance group) from 37 centers in the United Kingdom. Among these patients, 17% had nodal stage N2a disease and 61% had stage N2b disease. A total of 84% of the patients had oropharyngeal cancer, and 75% had tumor specimens that stained positive for the p16 protein, an indicator that human papillomavirus had a role in the causation of the cancer. The median follow-up was 36 months. PET-CT-guided surveillance resulted in fewer neck dissections than did planned dissection surgery (54 vs. 221); rates of surgical complications were similar in the two groups (42% and 38%, respectively). The 2-year overall survival rate was 84.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80.7 to 89.1) in the surveillance group and 81.5% (95% CI, 76.9 to 86.3) in the planned-surgery group. The hazard ratio for death slightly favored PET-CT-guided surveillance and indicated noninferiority (upper boundary of the 95% CI for the hazard ratio, <1.50; P=0.004). There was no significant difference between the groups with respect to p16 expression. Quality of life was similar in the two groups. PET-CT-guided surveillance, as compared with neck dissection, resulted in savings of £1,492 (approximately $2,190 in U.S. dollars) per person over the duration of the trial. CONCLUSIONS: Survival was similar among patients who underwent PET-CT-guided surveillance and those who underwent planned neck dissection, but surveillance resulted in considerably fewer operations and it was more cost-effective. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme and Cancer Research UK; PET-NECK Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN13735240.).

Exercises to improve function of the rheumatoid hand (SARAH): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Disease-modifying biological agents and other drug regimens have substantially improved control of disease activity and joint damage in people with rheumatoid arthritis of the hand. However, commensurate changes in function and quality of life are not always noted. Tailored hand exercises might provide additional improvements, but evidence is lacking. We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tailored hand exercises in addition to usual care during 12 months. METHODS: In this pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group trial, at 17 National Health Service sites across the UK we randomly assigned 490 adults with rheumatoid arthritis who had pain and dysfunction of the hands and had been on a stable drug regimen for at least 3 months, to either usual care or usual care plus a tailored strengthening and stretching hand exercise programme. Participants were randomly assigned with stratification by centre. Allocation was computer generated and unmasked to participants and therapists delivering treatment after randomisation. Outcome assessors and all investigators were masked to allocation. Physiotherapists or occupational therapists gave the treatments. The primary outcome was the Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire overall hand function score at 12 months. The analysis was by intention to treat. We calculated cost per quality-adjusted life-year. This trial is registered as ISRCTN 89936343. FINDINGS: Between Oct 5, 2009, and May 10, 2011, we screened 1606 people, of whom 490 were randomly assigned to usual care (n=244) or tailored exercises (n=246). 438 of 490 participants (89%) provided 12 month follow-up data. Improvements in overall hand function were 3·6 points (95% CI 1·5-5·7) in the usual care group and 7·9 points (6·0-9·9) in the exercise group (mean difference between groups 4·3, 95% CI 1·5-7·1; p=0·0028). Pain, drug regimens, and health-care resource use were stable for 12 months, with no difference between the groups. No serious adverse events associated with the treatment were recorded. The cost of tailored hand exercise was £156 per person; cost per quality-adjusted life-year was £9549 with the EQ-5D (£17,941 with imputation for missing data). INTERPRETATION: We have shown that a tailored hand exercise programme is a worthwhile, low-cost intervention to provide as an adjunct to various drug regimens. Maximisation of the benefits of biological and DMARD regimens in terms of function, disability, and health-related quality of life should be an important treatment aim. FUNDING: UK National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme (NIHR HTA), project number 07/32/05.

Investigation of p16(INK4a) as a prognostic biomarker in oral epithelial dysplasia.

BACKGROUND: Human papilloma virus is a risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer. Evidence for a similar aetiological role in the development of oral dysplasia or its transformation to oral cancer is not as clear. Meta-analyses estimate the prevalence of high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) serotypes to be three times higher in pre-malignant lesions and cancer than in normal oral mucosa. However, this does not imply a causal relationship. Conflicting results are reported from the few studies examining the prognostic significance of HPV positivity in the development of oral cancer. We aimed to examine the ability of p16(INK4a) protein expression, a surrogate marker of HPV infection, to predict malignant progression in a large cohort of oral dysplasia patients. METHODS: One hundred forty eight oral dysplasia cases underwent immunohistochemical analysis using a monoclonal antibody against p16(INK4a) . Clinical factors were also collated on each case. Slides were double scored independently by two trained observers. Univariate analyses using both logistic and Cox regression models were performed. RESULTS: Thirty nine of 148 cases progressed to cancer. Ten of 148 cases (7%) were p16(INK4a) positive. High grade of dysplasia (P = 0.0002) and lesion morphology (P = 0.03) were found to be prognostic of malignant progression. p16(INK4a) score was not prognostic in this cohort (P = 0.29). This did not change with a time to event analysis (P = 0.24). CONCLUSION: Few studies have assessed the aetiological role of HPV in cancer development from dysplastic lesions. Our study, using one of the largest cohorts of oral dysplasia, demonstrated a low rate of p16(INK4a) positivity and was unable to confirm a prognostic ability for this biomarker.

Strengthening and stretching for rheumatoid arthritis of the hand (SARAH): design of a randomised controlled trial of a hand and upper limb exercise intervention--ISRCTN89936343.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) commonly affects the hands and wrists with inflammation, deformity, pain, weakness and restricted mobility leading to reduced function. The effectiveness of exercise for RA hands is uncertain, although evidence from small scale studies is promising. The Strengthening And Stretching for Rheumatoid Arthritis of the Hand (SARAH) trial is a pragmatic, multi-centre randomised controlled trial evaluating the clinical and cost effectiveness of adding an optimised exercise programme for hands and upper limbs to best practice usual care for patients with RA. METHODS/DESIGN: 480 participants with problematic RA hands will be recruited through 17 NHS trusts. Treatments will be provided by physiotherapists and occupational therapists. Participants will be individually randomised to receive either best practice usual care (joint protection advice, general exercise advice, functional splinting and assistive devices) or best practice usual care supplemented with an individualised exercise programme of strengthening and stretching exercises. The study assessors will be blinded to treatment allocation and will follow participants up at four and 12 months. The primary outcome measure is the Hand function subscale of the Michigan Hand Outcome Questionnaire, and secondary outcomes include hand and wrist impairment measures, quality of life, and resource use. Economic and qualitative studies will also be carried out in parallel. DISCUSSION: This paper describes the design and development of a trial protocol of a complex intervention study based in therapy out-patient departments. The findings will provide evidence to support or refute the use of an optimised exercise programme for RA of the hand in addition to best practice usual care.

Predictive markers of anthracycline benefit: a prospectively planned analysis of the UK National Epirubicin Adjuvant Trial (NEAT/BR9601).

BACKGROUND: The NEAT/BR9601 trial showed benefit for addition of anthracyclines to cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) as adjuvant treatment for early breast cancer. We investigated prospectively predictive biomarkers of anthracycline benefit including HER2 and TOP2A. METHODS: 1941 tumours from 2391 women recruited to NEAT/BR9601 were analysed on tissue microarrays for HER2 and TOP2A amplification and deletion, HER1-3 and Ki67 expression, and duplication of chromosome 17 centromere enumeration probe (Ch17CEP). Log-rank analyses identified factors affecting relapse-free and overall survival, and regression models tested independent prognostic effect of markers, with adjustment for known prognostic factors (age, nodal status, oestrogen-receptor status, grade, and tumour size). The predictive value of markers was tested by treatment interactions for relapse-free and overall survival. FINDINGS: 1762 patients were analysed. 21% of tumours (n=367) were HER2 amplified, 10% were TOP2A amplified (n=169), 11% showed TOP2A deleted (n=191), 23% showed Ch17CEP duplication (n=406), and 61% had high (>13.0%) Ki67 (n=1136). In univariate analyses, only HER2 amplification and TOP2A deletion were significant prognostic factors for relapse-free (hazard ratio [HR] 1.59, 95% CI 1.32-1.92, p<0.0001; and 1.52, 1.20-1.92, p=0.0006, respectively) and overall survival (1.79, 1.47-2.19, p<0.0001; and 1.62, 1.26-2.08, p=0.0002 respectively). We detected no significant interaction with anthracycline benefit for Ki67, HER2, HER1-3, or TOP2A. By contrast, in multivariate analyses, Ch17CEP duplication was associated with significant improvements in both relapse-free (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.72-1.18 for tumours with normal Ch17CEP vs 0.52, 0.34-0.81 for tumours with abnormal Ch17CEP; p for interaction=0.004) and overall survival (0.94, 0.72-1.24 vs 0.57, 0.36-0.92; p for interaction=0.02) with anthracycline use. INTERPRETATION: In women with early breast cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy, the most powerful predictor of benefit from anthracyclines is Ch17CEP duplication. In view of the location of HER2/TOP2A on chromosome 17, Ch17CEP duplication might explain the inconsistencies in previous studies of factors predicting benefit from anthracyclines. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK and the Scottish Breast Cancer Clinical Trials Group.

Rofecoxib and cardiovascular adverse events in adjuvant treatment of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Selective cyclooxygenase inhibitors may retard the progression of cancer, but they have enhanced thrombotic potential. We report on cardiovascular adverse events in patients receiving rofecoxib to reduce rates of recurrence of colorectal cancer. METHODS: All serious adverse events that were cardiovascular thrombotic events were reviewed in 2434 patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer participating in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of rofecoxib, 25 mg daily, started after potentially curative tumor resection and chemotherapy or radiotherapy as indicated. The trial was terminated prematurely owing to worldwide withdrawal of rofecoxib. To examine possible persistent risks, we examined cardiovascular thrombotic events reported up to 24 months after the trial was closed. RESULTS: The median duration of active treatment was 7.4 months. The 1167 patients receiving rofecoxib and the 1160 patients receiving placebo were well matched, with a median follow-up period of 33.0 months (interquartile range, 27.6 to 40.1) and 33.4 months (27.7 to 40.4), respectively. Of the 23 confirmed cardiovascular thrombotic events, 16 occurred in the rofecoxib group during or within 14 days after the treatment period, with an estimated relative risk of 2.66 (from the Cox proportional-hazards model; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 6.86; P=0.04). Analysis of the Antiplatelet Trialists' Collaboration end point (the combined incidence of death from cardiovascular, hemorrhagic, and unknown causes; of nonfatal myocardial infarction; and of nonfatal ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke) gave an unadjusted relative risk of 1.60 (95% CI, 0.57 to 4.51; P=0.37). Fourteen more cardiovascular thrombotic events, six in the rofecoxib group, were reported within the 2 years after trial closure, with an overall unadjusted relative risk of 1.50 (95% CI, 0.76 to 2.94; P=0.24). Four patients in the rofecoxib group and two in the placebo group died from thrombotic causes during or within 14 days after the treatment period, and during the follow-up period, one patient in the rofecoxib group and five patients in the placebo group died from cardiovascular causes. CONCLUSIONS: Rofecoxib therapy was associated with an increased frequency of adverse cardiovascular events among patients with a median study treatment of 7.4 months' duration. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN98278138 [controlled-trials.com].).

Adjuvant chemotherapy versus observation in patients with colorectal cancer: a randomised study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the QUASAR trial was to determine the size and duration of any survival benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with colorectal cancer at low risk of recurrence, for whom the indication for such treatment is unclear. METHODS: After apparently curative resections of colon or rectal cancer, 3239 patients (2963 [91%] with stage II [node negative] disease, 2291 [71%] with colon cancer, median age 63 [IQR 56-68] years) enrolled between May, 1994, and December, 2003, from 150 centres in 19 countries were randomly assigned to receive chemotherapy with fluorouracil and folinic acid (n=1622) or to observation (with chemotherapy considered on recurrence; n=1617). Chemotherapy was delivered as six 5-day courses every 4 weeks or as 30 once-weekly courses of intravenous fluorouracil (370 mg/m2) with high-dose (175 mg) L-folinic acid or low-dose (25 mg) L-folinic acid. Until 1997, levamisole (12 courses of 450 mg over 3 days repeated every 2 weeks) or placebo was added. After 1997, patients who were assigned to receive chemotherapy were given fluorouracil and low-dose folinic acid only. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the International Clinical Trial Registry, number ISRCTN82375386. FINDINGS: At the time of analysis, 61 (3.8%) patients in the chemotherapy group and 50 (3.1%) in the observation group had missing follow-up. After a median follow-up of 5.5 (range 0-10.6) years, there were 311 deaths in the chemotherapy group and 370 in the observation group; the relative risk of death from any cause with chemotherapy versus observation alone was 0.82 (95% CI 0.70-0.95; p=0.008). There were 293 recurrences in the chemotherapy group and 359 in the observation group; the relative risk of recurrence with chemotherapy versus observation alone was 0.78 (0.67-0.91; p=0.001). Treatment efficacy did not differ significantly by tumour site, stage, sex, age, or chemotherapy schedule. Eight (0.5%) patients in the chemotherapy group and four (0.25%) in the observation group died from non-colorectal cancer causes within 30 weeks of randomisation; only one of these deaths was deemed to be possibly chemotherapy related. INTERPRETATION: Chemotherapy with fluorouracil and folinic acid could improve survival of patients with stage II colorectal cancer, although the absolute improvements are small: assuming 5-year mortality without chemotherapy is 20%, the relative risk of death seen here translates into an absolute improvement in survival of 3.6% (95% CI 1.0-6.0).

The impact of institutional clinical trial recruitment versus hospital volume on survival outcomes of patients with head and neck cancer: An analysis of the PET-NECK trial outcomes, UKCRN portfolio, and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) in England.

OBJECTIVES: High institutional clinical trial recruitment and high hospital volume are reported to be independent indicators of better patient outcomes following cancer treatment. However, their relationship in head and neck cancers (HNC) remains less clear. METHODS: We aimed to assess the relationship between institutional clinical trial recruitment, hospital throughput of HNC cases, and survival of patients with advanced HNC treated with primary chemoradiotherapy at hospitals which recruited to the PET-NECK trial (2008-2012). The impact on outcome was assessed using Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: HNC RCT recruitment positively correlated with hospital throughput (r = 0.57, p < 0.0001). Low-recruiters (1-5 patients) had a 107% increased risk of death when compared to high-recruiters (>5 patients) (HR = 2.07, p = 0.05). There was no significant impact of hospital throughput on overall or disease-specific HNC survival. Multivariate analysis identified p16 status, N-stage, smoking, and RCT recruitment volume as the only significant predictors of survival. There was a significant difference in chemotherapy regimen between low and high-recruiters (p = 0.003) where a higher proportion of patients (50%, n = 13) in low-recruiting compared to high-recruiting hospitals (29%, n = 92) received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. A higher proportion of these patients died at low-recruiting hospitals (46% versus 23%). DISCUSSION: A significant association exists between high recruitment and better OS for patients with HNC. However, no significance was found between hospital throughput and outcomes. The significance of individual centre differences in chemotherapy regimen needs further investigation. Future studies need a greater number of patient outcome events to support the trends found in this study.

Hand exercises for patients with rheumatoid arthritis: an extended follow-up of the SARAH randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: The Stretching And strengthening for Rheumatoid Arthritis of the Hand (SARAH) randomised controlled trial evaluated the effectiveness of a hand exercise programme and demonstrated it was clinically effective and cost-effective at 12 months. The aim of this extended follow-up was to evaluate the effects of the SARAH programme beyond 12 months. METHODS: Using postal questionnaires, we collected the Michigan Hand Questionnaire hand function (primary outcome), activities of daily living and work subscales, pain troublesomeness, self-efficacy and health-related quality of life. All participants were asked how often they performed hand exercises for their rheumatoid arthritis. Mean difference in hand function scores were analysed by a linear model, adjusted for baseline score. RESULTS: Two-thirds (n=328/490, 67%) of the original cohort provided data for the extended follow-up. The mean follow-up time was 26 months (range 19-40 months).There was no difference in change in hand function scores between the two groups at extended follow-up (mean difference (95% CI) 1.52 (-1.71 to 4.76)). However, exercise group participants were still significantly improved compared with baseline (p=0.0014) unlike the best practice usual care group (p=0.1122). Self-reported performance of hand exercises had reduced substantially. CONCLUSIONS: Participants undertaking the SARAH exercise programme had improved hand function compared with baseline >2 years after randomisation. This was not the case for the control group. However, scores were no longer statistically different between the groups indicating the effect of the programme had diminished over time. This reduction in hand function compared with earlier follow-up points coincided with a reduction in self-reported performance of hand exercises. Further intervention to promote long-term adherence may be warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN89936343; Results.

Reactivity with A monoclonal antibody to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) nuclear antigen 1 defines a subset of aggressive breast cancers in the absence of the EBV genome.

Previous studies have suggested that common breast cancers are associated with EBV. We used a highly sensitive quantitative real-time PCR method to screen whole tumor sections of breast cancers for the presence of the EBV genome. EBV DNA was detected in 19 of 92 (21%) tumors, but viral load was very low in positive samples (mean = 1.1 copy EBV/1000 cells, maximum = 7.1 copies EBV/1000 cells). Importantly, quantitative real-time PCR failed to detect the EBV genome in microdissected tumor cells from any case. Using a monoclonal antibody (2B4-1) reactive against the EBV nuclear antigen-1, we noted strong staining of tumor nuclei in a proportion of those breast cancers that had tested negative for the presence of the EBV genome. Because nuclear staining with the 2B4-1 antibody was previously observed more frequently in poor prognosis breast cancers, we examined a larger series of breast cancers with complete clinical follow-up. Strong punctate staining of tumor cell nuclei was observed in 47 of 153 (31%) breast cancers; 2B4-1-positive tumors were significantly more likely to be ER-negative (P < 0.0001), to be of higher grade (P = 0.001) and larger (P = 0.03), to involve more regional lymph nodes (P = 0.01), and to have higher Nottingham Prognostic Index scores (P = 0.0003). Conclusions are: (a) EBV can be regularly detected in whole sections of breast cancers but viral copy number is very low; (b) in these cases, tumor cells do not harbor virus; and (c) reactivity with the monoclonal antibody 2B4-1 is detectable in the absence of the EBV genome and is strongly associated with ER-negative breast tumors and with prognostically unfavorable disease. Additional studies should be directed to the identification of this protein and to elucidation of its role in breast cancer.

Strengthening And stretching for Rheumatoid Arthritis of the Hand (SARAH). A randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of exercise for improving hand and wrist function in people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: The study aims were (1) to estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adding an optimised exercise programme for hands and upper limbs to standard care for patients with RA; and (2) to qualitatively describe the experience of participants in the trial with a particular emphasis on acceptability of the intervention, exercise behaviours and reasons for adherence/non-adherence. DESIGN: A pragmatic, multicentred, individually randomised controlled trial with an embedded qualitative study. Outcome assessors were blind to group assignment and independent of treatment delivery. SETTING: Seventeen NHS trusts in England comprising 21 rheumatology and therapy departments. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with RA who had pain and dysfunction of the hands and/or wrists and had been on stable medication for at least 3 months. Patients were excluded if they were under 18 years old, had undergone upper limb surgery/fracture in the last 6 months, were on a waiting list for upper limb surgery or were pregnant. INTERVENTIONS: Usual care or usual care plus an individualised exercise programme. Usual care consisted of joint protection education, general exercise advice and functional splinting if required. The exercise programme consisted of six sessions of strengthening and stretching exercises with a hand therapist, daily home exercises and strategies to maximise adherence. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the Michigan Hand Outcome Questionnaire (MHQ) overall hand function subscale score at 12 months. Secondary outcome measures included the full MHQ, pain, health-related quality of life (Short Form questionnaire-12 items), impairment (grip strength, dexterity and range of motion) and self-efficacy. European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, medication and health-care use were collected for the health economics evaluation. Follow-up was at 4 and 12 months post randomisation. Analysis was performed on an intention-to-treat basis. RESULTS: We randomised 490 patients (244 to usual care, 246 to exercise programme). Compliance with the treatments was very good (93% of usual care participants and 75% of exercise programme participants completed treatment). Outcomes were obtained for 89% of participants at 12 months (222 for usual care, 216 for exercise programme). There was a statistically significant difference in favour of the exercise programme for the primary outcome at 4 and 12 months [mean difference 4.6 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2 to 7.0 points; and mean difference 4.4 points, 95% CI 1.6 to 7.1 points, respectively]. There were no significant differences in pain scores or adverse events. The estimated difference in mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) accrued over 12 months was 0.01 greater (95% CI -0.03 to 0.05) in the exercise programme group. Imputed analysis produced incremental cost-effectiveness ratio estimates of £17,941 (0.59 probability of cost-effectiveness at willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000 per QALY). The qualitative study found the exercise programme to be acceptable and highlighted the importance of the therapist in enabling patients to establish a routine and incorporate the exercises into their lives. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the Strengthening And stretching for Rheumatoid Arthritis of the Hand trial suggest that the addition of an exercise programme for RA hands/wrists to usual care is clinically effective and cost-effective when compared with usual care alone. No adverse effects were associated with the exercise programme. The economic analysis suggests that the intervention is likely to be cost-effective. STUDY REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN 89936343.

Predicting Anthracycline Benefit: TOP2A and CEP17-Not Only but Also.

PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite as measured with a centromere enumeration probe (CEP17) predicted sensitivity to anthracyclines, we report here an individual patient-level pooled analysis of data from five trials comparing anthracycline-based chemotherapy with CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil) as adjuvant chemotherapy for early breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fluorescent in situ hybridization for CEP17, HER2, and TOP2A was performed in three laboratories on samples from 3,846 of 4,864 eligible patients from five trials evaluating anthracycline-containing chemotherapy versus CMF. Methodologic differences did not affect HER2-to-CEP17 ratios but necessitated different definitions for CEP17 duplication: > 1.86 observed copies per cell for BR9601, NEAT, Belgian, and DBCG89D trials and > 2.25 for the MA.5 trial. RESULTS: Fluorescent in situ hybridization data were available in 89.3% (HER2), 83.9% (CEP17), and 80.6% (TOP2A) of 3,846 patient cases with available tissue. Both CEP17and TOP2A treatment-by-marker interactions remained significant in adjusted analyses for recurrence-free and overall survival, whereas HER2 did not. A combined CEP17 and TOP2A-adjusted model predicted anthracycline benefit across all five trials for both recurrence-free (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.82; P = .001) and overall survival (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.85; P = .005). CONCLUSION: This prospectively planned individual-patient pooled analysis of patient cases from five adjuvant trials confirms that patients whose tumors harbor either CEP17 duplication or TOP2A aberrations, but not HER2 amplification, benefit from adjuvant anthracycline chemotherapy.

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in oropharyngeal and nonoropharyngeal head and neck cancer--systematic review and meta-analysis of trends by time and region.

BACKGROUND: Little information has been reported on regional and time trends of human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence rates of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) and non-OPC. METHODS: The study consisted of a systematic review and meta-analysis using random effects logistic regression models. RESULTS: Overall HPV prevalence in OPC (47.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 42.9-52.5%) increased significantly over time: from 40.5% (95% CI, 35.1-46.1) before 2000, to 64.3% (95% CI, 56.7-71.3) between 2000 and 2004, and 72.2% (95% CI, 52.9-85.7) between 2005 and 2009 (p < .001). Prevalence increased significantly in North America and Europe, and the significant gap between them that existed before 2000 (50.7% vs 35.3%, respectively, p = .008) has now disappeared (69.7% vs 73.1%, respectively, p = .8). Prevalence in non-OPC (21.8%; 95% CI, 18.9-25.1%) has not increased over time (p = .97). CONCLUSIONS: The sharp increase in the proportion of HPV-positive OPC over the last decade has occurred at a faster rate in Europe compared with that in North America. In contrast, the relatively low prevalence of HPV in non-OPC remains unchanged.

The binary oral dysplasia grading system: validity testing and suggested improvement.

OBJECTIVES: A binary system is reputed to be superior to the World Health Organization (WHO) system in grading oral dysplasia. We aimed to validate its reproducibility and prognostic ability and examine whether it could be improved. STUDY DESIGN: Three pathologists graded 141 oral epithelial dysplasia biopsies with the use of both systems. Observer variability and prognostic ability were assessed with the use of kappa and logistic regression models. RESULTS: The binary system showed superior agreement to the WHO system (multirater kappa 0.59 vs. 0.49, respectively) but similar prognostic ability (odds ratio [OR] 4.59 [P = .014] vs. OR 2.25 [P = .02], respectively). Adding smoking and alcohol slightly improved the prognostic ability of both systems (OR 5.10 vs. OR 2.42, respectively). Our new binary system with a refined diagnostic threshold demonstrated a slightly greater prognostic ability and improved ability to differentiate between high- and low-risk moderate dysplasia cases. CONCLUSIONS: The binary system has similar prognostic ability but superior reproducibility compared with the WHO system. Prognostication is improved still further by using a new threshold.

Revising the radiobiological model of synchronous chemotherapy in head-and-neck cancer: a new analysis examining reduced weighting of accelerated repopulation.

PURPOSE: Previous studies of synchronous chemoradiation therapy have modeled the additional effect of chemotherapy as additional radiation therapy biologically effective dose (BED). Recent trials of accelerated versus conventional fractionation chemoradiation have cast doubt on such modeling. The purpose of this study was to identify alternative models. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Nine trials of platinum-based chemoradiation were identified. In radiation therapy-alone arms, the radiation therapy BED for tumor was calculated using standard parameters. In chemoradiation arms, 3 methods were used to calculate tumor BED (tBED): additional BED, addition of 9.3 Gy BED for tumor to the radiation therapy BED; zero repopulation, BED with no correction for repopulation; variable t(p) (the average doubling time during accelerated repopulation), values of t(p) 3-10 were used to examine a partial suppression of repopulation. The correlations between the calculated percentage change in tBED for each method and observed percentage change in local control were assessed using the Pearson product moment correlation. RESULTS: Significant correlations were obtained for all 3 methods but were stronger with zero repopulation (P=.0002) and variable tp (t(p) = 10) (P=.0005) than additional BED (P=.02). CONCLUSIONS: Radiobiological models using modified parameters for accelerated repopulation seem to correlate strongly with outcome in chemoradiation studies. The variable tp method shows strong correlation for outcome in local control and is potentially a more suitable model in the chemoradiation setting. However, a lack of trials with an overall treatment time of more than 46 days inhibits further differentiation of the optimal model.

Biomarkers in laryngeal dysplasia: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of which laryngeal dysplasia cases will progress to cancer is poorly achieved. The differential expression of biomarkers in dysplastic and cancerous lesions may help to improve this. METHODS: We carried out a systematic review of laryngeal dysplasia biomarkers. Risk ratios were calculated for each biomarker. Individual study data were pooled only for the biomarker p53. RESULTS: In all, 286 potential studies were identified; 9 met the inclusion criteria with 13 biomarkers assessed. Relative risks ranged from 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.10, 3.75) for mdm2 to 84.55 (95% CI 5.30, 1348.56) for Cortactin. A meta-analysis of studies using p53 failed to show this biomarker having a significant predictive ability. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is no good evidence for the use of biomarkers in predicting the future behavior of laryngeal dysplastic lesions. Only 3 studies showed statistically significant results. Better reporting of studies using the REMARK (REporting recommendations for tumor MARKer prognostic studies) consensus guidelines should help to improve this in the future.

Phase III randomized trial assessing rofecoxib in the adjuvant setting of colorectal cancer: final results of the VICTOR trial.

PURPOSE: Laboratory and case-control studies suggest a pivotal role for the cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) pathway in colorectal carcinogenesis. The purpose of this study was to test whether the COX-2 inhibitor rofecoxib could reduce recurrence and improve survival when administered in the adjuvant setting of colorectal cancer (CRC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients who had undergone potentially curative surgery and completion of adjuvant therapy for stage II and III CRC were randomly assigned to receive rofecoxib (20 mg daily) or placebo. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). Where formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor tissue samples were available, COX-2 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry and correlated with clinical outcome. RESULTS: Two thousand four hundred thirty-four patients were entered onto the study. The trial was terminated early because of the worldwide withdrawal of rofecoxib. At this point, 1,167 patients had received rofecoxib and 1,160 patients had received placebo for median treatment durations of 7.4 and 8.2 months, respectively. For the rofecoxib and placebo arms, median follow-up times were 4.84 and 4.85 years, with 241 and 246 deaths and 297 and 329 recurrences, respectively. No difference was demonstrated in OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.97; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.16; P = .75) or recurrence (HR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.04; P = .15) comparing the two groups. Tumor COX-2 expression by immunohistochemistry was assessed for 871 patients, but neither prognostic nor predictive effects were observed. CONCLUSION: In this study of abbreviated therapy in the adjuvant setting of CRC, rofecoxib did not improve OS or protect from recurrence in unselected patients. In addition, COX-2 expression did not correlate with prognosis overall or predict effectiveness of COX-2 inhibitors.

Treatment and follow-up of oral dysplasia - a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to inform an evidence-based management policy for oral dysplastic lesions. METHODS: Systematic review was performed with meta-analysis. Studies reporting follow-up of patients with histologically confirmed oral dysplasia were included. Outcome measures included malignant transformation rate (MTR) and time to malignant transformation (TMT). Subgroup analysis was performed by histologic grade, clinical risk factors, and treatment modality. Heterogeneity was assessed. RESULTS: Fourteen nonrandomized studies, reporting on 992 patients, were included. There was considerable heterogeneity between studies: mean overall MTR = 12.1% (confidence interval: 8.1%, 17.9%) and mean TMT = 4.3 years. Histologic grade significantly affected mean MTR (p < .008). Lesions that were not excised demonstrated considerably higher MTR than those that were excised (p = .003). CONCLUSIONS: Oral dysplasia showed a significant rate of transformation to cancer, which was related to grade and was decreased significantly but not eliminated by excision. This suggested the need for excision and continued surveillance.

Results of the MRC pilot study show autografting for younger patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia is safe and achieves a high percentage of molecular responses.

We have assessed autologous stem cell transplantation after treatment with fludarabine in previously untreated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). This study is the first to enroll previously untreated patients and follow them prospectively. The initial response rate to fludarabine was 82% (94 of 115 patients). Stem cell mobilization was attempted in 88 patients and was successful in 59 (67%). Overall 65 of 115 patients (56%) entered into the study proceeded to autologous transplantation. The early transplant-related mortality rate was 1.5% (1 of 65 patients). The number of patients in complete remission after transplantation increased from 37% (24 of 65) to 74% (48 of 65), and 26 of 41 patients (63%) who were not in complete remission at the time of their transplantation achieved a complete remission after transplantation. The 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates from transplantation were 77.5% (CI, 57.2%-97.8%) and 51.5% (CI, 33.2%-69.8%), respectively. None of the variables examined at study entry were found to be predictors of either overall or disease-free survival. Sixteen of 20 evaluable patients achieved a molecular remission on a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for immunoglobulin heavy-chain gene rearrangements in the first 6 months following transplantation. Detectable molecular disease by PCR was highly predictive of disease recurrence. It is of concern that 5 of 65 (8%) patients developed posttransplant acute myeloid leukemia/myelodysplastic syndrome.