Rates of Downstream Procedures and Complications Associated With Lung Cancer Screening in Routine Clinical Practice : A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer screening (LCS) using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) reduces lung cancer mortality but can lead to downstream procedures, complications, and other potential harms. Estimates of these events outside NLST (National Lung Screening Trial) have been variable and lacked evaluation by screening result, which allows more direct comparison with trials. OBJECTIVE: To identify rates of downstream procedures and complications associated with LCS. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: 5 U.S. health care systems. PATIENTS: Individuals who completed a baseline LDCT scan for LCS between 2014 and 2018. MEASUREMENTS: Outcomes included downstream imaging, invasive diagnostic procedures, and procedural complications. For each, absolute rates were calculated overall and stratified by screening result and by lung cancer detection, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. RESULTS: Among the 9266 screened patients, 1472 (15.9%) had a baseline LDCT scan showing abnormalities, of whom 140 (9.5%) were diagnosed with lung cancer within 12 months (positive predictive value, 9.5% [95% CI, 8.0% to 11.0%]; negative predictive value, 99.8% [CI, 99.7% to 99.9%]; sensitivity, 92.7% [CI, 88.6% to 96.9%]; specificity, 84.4% [CI, 83.7% to 85.2%]). Absolute rates of downstream imaging and invasive procedures in screened patients were 31.9% and 2.8%, respectively. In patients undergoing invasive procedures after abnormal findings, complication rates were substantially higher than those in NLST (30.6% vs. 17.7% for any complication; 20.6% vs. 9.4% for major complications). LIMITATION: Assessment of outcomes was retrospective and was based on procedural coding. CONCLUSION: The results indicate substantially higher rates of downstream procedures and complications associated with LCS in practice than observed in NLST. Diagnostic management likely needs to be assessed and improved to ensure that screening benefits outweigh potential harms. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute and Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.

Marshall Joffe's Contributions to Causal Inference, Biostatistics, and Epidemiology.

We pay tribute to Marshall Joffe, PhD, and his substantial contributions to the field of causal inference with focus in biostatistics and epidemiology. By compiling narratives written by us, his colleagues, we not only present highlights of Marshall's research and their significance for causal inference but also offer a portrayal of Marshall's personal accomplishments and character. Our discussion of Marshall's research notably includes (but is not limited to) handling of posttreatment variables such as noncompliance, employing G-estimation for treatment effects on failure-time outcomes, estimating effects of time-varying exposures subject to time-dependent confounding, and developing a causal framework for case-control studies. We also provide a description of some of Marshall's unpublished work, which is accompanied by a bonus anecdote. We discuss future research directions related to Marshall's research. While Marshall's impact in causal inference and the world outside of it cannot be wholly captured by our words, we hope nonetheless to present some of what he has done for our field and what he has meant to us and to his loved ones.

Doubly robust nonparametric instrumental variable estimators for survival outcomes.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods allow us the opportunity to address unmeasured confounding in causal inference. However, most IV methods are only applicable to discrete or continuous outcomes with very few IV methods for censored survival outcomes. In this article, we propose nonparametric estimators for the local average treatment effect on survival probabilities under both covariate-dependent and outcome-dependent censoring. We provide an efficient influence function-based estimator and a simple estimation procedure when the IV is either binary or continuous. The proposed estimators possess double-robustness properties and can easily incorporate nonparametric estimation using machine learning tools. In simulation studies, we demonstrate the flexibility and double robustness of our proposed estimators under various plausible scenarios. We apply our method to the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial for estimating the causal effect of screening on survival probabilities and investigate the causal contrasts between the two interventions under different censoring assumptions.

The Role of Hospital Characteristics in Clinical and Quality Outcomes for Gastrointestinal Bleeding in a National Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: There is substantial variability in patient outcomes for gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) across hospitals. This study aimed to identify hospital factors associated with GIB outcomes. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized for GIB from 2016 to 2018. These data were merged with the American Hospital Association Annual Survey data to incorporate hospital characteristics. We used generalized linear mixed-effect models to estimate the effect of hospital-level characteristics on patient outcomes after adjusting for patient risk factors including anticoagulant and antiplatelet use, recent GIB, and comorbidities. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality, and secondary outcomes included length of stay and a composite outcome of 30-day readmission or mortality. RESULTS: Factors associated with improved GIB 30-day mortality included large hospital size (defined as beds >400, odds ratio [OR] 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.97), greater case volume (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.98), increased resident and nurse staffing (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.94), and blood donor center designation (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.88-0.99). Patients treated at a hospital with multiple advanced capabilities, such as availability of advanced endoscopy, advanced intensive care unit (ICU) capabilities (both a medical-surgical ICU and cardiac ICU), blood donor center, and liver transplant center, had a 22% reduction in 30-day mortality risk, compared with those hospitalized in a hospital with none of these services (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.68-0.91). However, length of stay increased with additional services. DISCUSSION: Patients hospitalized for GIB at hospitals with multiple advanced specialized capabilities have lower mortality but longer lengths of stay. Further research should examine the processes of care linked to these services that contribute to improved mortality in GIB.

Risk of atopic dermatitis and the atopic march paradigm in children of mothers with atopic illnesses: A birth cohort study from the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is thought to precede the onset of other allergic illness (OAI) in a temporal progression (ie, atopic march), yet the timing and progression has been questioned. It is also unclear how parental allergic illness impacts the development of these illnesses in offspring. OBJECTIVE: (1) Explore risk of incident AD and (2) timing of allergic disease onset in children of mothers with AD compared with mothers without AD from the United Kingdom. METHODS: We created a birth cohort of mother-child pairs using IQVIA Medical Research Data database and developed Cox proportional models to examine the above associations (hazard ratio, HR [95% confidence interval, CI]). RESULTS: Among 1,224,243 child-mother pairs, mean child (standard deviation) follow-up time was 10.8 (8.3) years and 50.1% were males (N = 600,905). Children were 59% (HR = 1.59 [1.57, 1.60]) more likely to have AD if their mothers had AD compared with no AD with mean age of first AD diagnosis at 3.3 (4.8) years. Most children with any diagnosis of AD present with AD first (91.0%); however, in those with asthma, only 67.8% developed AD first. CONCLUSION: Children born to mothers with AD are more prone to develop AD and some develop OAI first, suggesting that not all follow the same sequential pathway.

Leveraging baseline covariates to analyze small cluster-randomized trials with a rare binary outcome.

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) involve randomizing entire groups of participants-called clusters-to treatment arms but are often comprised of a limited or fixed number of available clusters. While covariate adjustment can account for chance imbalances between treatment arms and increase statistical efficiency in individually randomized trials, analytical methods for individual-level covariate adjustment in small CRTs have received little attention to date. In this paper, we systematically investigate, through extensive simulations, the operating characteristics of propensity score weighting and multivariable regression as two individual-level covariate adjustment strategies for estimating the participant-average causal effect in small CRTs with a rare binary outcome and identify scenarios where each adjustment strategy has a relative efficiency advantage over the other to make practical recommendations. We also examine the finite-sample performance of the bias-corrected sandwich variance estimators associated with propensity score weighting and multivariable regression for quantifying the uncertainty in estimating the participant-average treatment effect. To illustrate the methods for individual-level covariate adjustment, we reanalyze a recent CRT testing a sedation protocol in 31 pediatric intensive care units.

Digital Health and Community Health Worker Support for Diabetes Management: a Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a digital health intervention plus community health worker (CHW) support on self-monitoring of blood glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) among adult Medicaid beneficiaries with diabetes. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Urban outpatient clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Adult Medicaid beneficiaries living with diabetes and treated with insulin and who had a HbA1c ≥ 9%. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomly assigned to one of three arms. Participants in the usual-care arm received a wireless glucometer if needed. Those in the digital arm received a lottery incentive for daily glucose monitoring. Those in the hybrid arm received the lottery plus support from a CHW if they had low adherence or high blood glucose levels. MAIN MEASURES: The primary outcome was the difference in adherence to daily glucose self-monitoring at 3 months between the hybrid and usual-care arms. The secondary outcome was difference in HbA1c from baseline at 6 months. KEY RESULTS: A total of 150 participants were enrolled in the study. A total of 102 participants (68%) completed the study. At 3 months, glucose self-monitoring rates in the hybrid versus usual-care arms were 0.72 vs 0.65, p = 0.23. At 6 months, change in HbA1c in the hybrid versus usual-care arms was - 0.74% vs - 0.49%, p = 0.69. CONCLUSION: There were no statistically significant differences between the hybrid and usual care in glucose self-monitoring adherence or improvements in HbA1C. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT03939793.

In utero or early in life exposure to antibiotics and the risk of childhood atopic dermatitis, a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a common inflammatory disease of the skin that begins early in life and can be lifelong. The purpose of our study was to evaluate whether fetal exposure and/or early life exposure of a child to antibiotics increases the risk of early onset AD. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesize that antibiotic exposure in utero or early in life (e.g., first 90 days) increases the likelihood that children develop AD. METHODS: Utilizing a large prospectively collected electronic medical records database, we studied the association of antibiotic exposure received in utero or very early in life and the relative risk of onset of AD in a population-based cohort study. Associations were estimated using proportional hazards models as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The risk of AD in childhood was increased after in utero or early life antibiotic exposure. For any in utero AB exposure the HR was 1.38 (1.36,1.39). However, penicillin demonstrated the strongest association with AD for both in utero exposure, 1.43 (1.41,1.44), and for childhood exposure, 1.81(1.79,1.82). HRs were higher in children born to mothers without AD than those with AD pointing to effect modification by maternal AD status. CONCLUSION: Children born to mothers exposed to antibiotics while in utero had, depending on the mother's history of AD, approximately a 20 to 40% increased risk of developing AD. Depending on the antibiotic, children who received antibiotics early-in-life had a 40 to 80% increased risk of developing AD. Our study, supports and refines the association between incident AD and antibiotic administration. It also adds population-based support to therapeutic attempts to treat AD by modifying skin microbiome.

Addressing positivity violations in causal effect estimation using Gaussian process priors.

In observational studies, causal inference relies on several key identifying assumptions. One identifiability condition is the positivity assumption, which requires the probability of treatment be bounded away from 0 and 1. That is, for every covariate combination, it should be possible to observe both treated and control subjects the covariate distributions should overlap between treatment arms. If the positivity assumption is violated, population-level causal inference necessarily involves some extrapolation. Ideally, a greater amount of uncertainty about the causal effect estimate should be reflected in such situations. With that goal in mind, we construct a Gaussian process model for estimating treatment effects in the presence of practical violations of positivity. Advantages of our method include minimal distributional assumptions, a cohesive model for estimating treatment effects, and more uncertainty associated with areas in the covariate space where there is less overlap. We assess the performance of our approach with respect to bias and efficiency using simulation studies. The method is then applied to a study of critically ill female patients to examine the effect of undergoing right heart catheterization.

Outcomes in kidney transplant recipients treated with immediate-release tacrolimus capsules versus extended-release tacrolimus capsules: A cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Prior randomized trials and observational studies have generally reported similar outcomes in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) treated with immediate-release tacrolimus (IR-TAC) versus extended-release tacrolimus (ER-TAC). However, many of these previous studies focused on patients with low immunological risks, had small sample sizes and brief follow-up periods, and excluded outcomes associated with graft loss, such as chronic rejection. METHODS: To address these limitations, we conducted a cohort study of 848 KTRs at a single transplantation center who had generally high immunological risks and were treated with either IR-TAC capsules (589 patients, 65.9%) or ER-TAC capsules (289 patients, 34.1%). All patients received their designated maintenance immunosuppressive regimen for at least 3 months post-transplantation. Afterwards, tacrolimus formulation was at the discretion of each patient's transplant nephrologist. For the two treatment groups, we compared the hazards of experiencing a composite outcome of acute or chronic antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), acute or chronic T-cell-mediated rejection, de novo DSA, and/or graft loss over a 3-year period starting at 3 months post-transplantation. RESULTS: In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model, KTRs treated with IR-TAC capsules had an increased hazard of experiencing the composite outcome when compared to patients treated with ER-TAC capsules; however, this result was not significant (adj HR 1.24, 95% CI .92-1.68, p = .163). Similar results were obtained with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using a propensity score (adj HR 1.25, 95% CI .93-1.68, p = .146). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that when compared to IR-TAC capsules, ER-TAC capsules do not reduce the hazard of poor outcomes in KTRs with generally high immunological risks.

Circulating endothelial precursor cells are associated with a healed diabetic foot ulcer evaluated in a prospective cohort study.

The goal of this multicentre study was to evaluate whether circulating endothelial precursor cells and microparticles can predict diabetic foot ulcer healing by the 16th week of care. We enrolled 207 subjects, and 40.0% (28.4, 41.5) healed by the 16th week of care. Using flow cytometry analysis, several circulating endothelial precursor cells measured at the first week of care were associated with healing after adjustment for wound area and wound duration. For example, CD34+ CD45dim , the univariate odds ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.88, 1.61) and after adjustment for wound area and wound duration, the odds ratio was (1.67 (1.16, 2.42) p = 0.006). A prognostic model using CD34+ CD45dim , wound area, and wound duration had an area under the curve of 0.75 (0.67, 0.82) and CD34+ CD45dim per initial wound area, an area under the curve of 0.72 (0.64, 0.79). Microparticles were not associated with a healed wound. Previous studies have indicated that circulating endothelial precursor cells measured at the first office visit are associated with a healed diabetic foot ulcer. In this multicentred prospective study, we confirm this finding, show the importance of adjusting circulating endothelial precursor cells measurements by wound area, and show circulating endothelial precursor cells per wound area is highly predictive of a healed diabetic foot ulcer by 16th week of care.

Impact of Universal Screening and Automated Clinical Decision Support for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder in Emergency Departments: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Emergency department (ED)-initiated buprenorphine improves outcomes in patients with opioid use disorder; however, adoption varies widely. To reduce variability, we implemented a nurse-driven triage screening question in the electronic health record to identify patients with opioid use disorder, followed by targeted electronic health record prompts to measure withdrawal and guide next steps in management, including initiation of treatment. Our objective was to assess the impact of screening implementation in 3 urban, academic EDs. METHODS: We conducted a quasiexperimental study of opioid use disorder-related ED visits using electronic health record data from January 2020 to June 2022. The triage protocol was implemented in 3 EDs between March and July 2021, and 2 other EDs in the health system served as controls. We evaluated changes in treatment measures over time and used a difference-in-differences analysis to compare outcomes in the 3 intervention EDs with those in the 2 controls. RESULTS: There were 2,462 visits in the intervention hospitals (1,258 in the preperiod and 1,204 in the postperiod) and 731 in the control hospitals (459 in the preperiod and 272 in the postperiod). Patient characteristics within the intervention and control EDs were similar across the time periods. Compared with the control hospitals, the triage protocol was associated with a 17% greater increase in withdrawal assessment, using the Clinical Opioid Withdrawal Scale (COWS) (95% CI 7 to 27). Buprenorphine prescriptions at discharge also increased by 5% (95% CI 0% to 10%), and naloxone prescriptions increased by 12% points (95% CI 1% to 22%) in the intervention EDs relative to controls. CONCLUSION: An ED triage screening and treatment protocol led to increased assessment and treatment of opioid use disorder. Protocols designed to make screening and treatment the default practice have promise in increasing the implementation of evidence-based treatment ED opioid use disorder care.

Association of KIR Genes and MHC Class I Ligands with Atopic Dermatitis.

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic illness that is associated with immune dysregulation. NK cell function has previously been associated with AD. NK cells directly interact with polymorphic HLA class I ligand variants using killer cell Ig-like receptors (KIRs). The purpose of this study was to identify potential associations between NK cell function and AD by evaluating variation in the presence of KIR genes as well as KIR gene interactions with the appropriate HLA class I KIR-specific ligands. Human DNA from the genetics of AD case-control study was used to genotype HLA class I KIR-specific ligands and the presence of KIR genes. In the full cohort, an increased risk of AD was noted for KIR2DL5 (1.51 [1.13, 2.01]), KIR2DS5 (1.72 [1.26, 2.34]), and KIR2DS1 (1.41 [1.04, 1.91]). Individuals with KIR2DS5 or KIR2DS1 and the HLA-C*C2 epitope were at an increased risk of AD (1.74 [1.21, 2.51] and 1.48 [1.04, 2.12], respectively). The HLA-B*-21T (TT) leader sequence increased the risk of AD across ethnicity. African Americans with KIR2DL2, KIR2DS1, KIR2DL5, and KIR2DS5 are more likely to have AD, and the risk increased for KIR2DS1 and KIR2DS5 in the presence of appropriate HLA-C C2 epitope. The risk of AD also increased for individuals with the HLA-B*-21T leader sequence. Future studies should focus on KIR gene allelic variation as well as consider cell-based measurements of KIR and the associated HLA class I epitopes.

HLA Class I Polymorphisms Influencing Both Peptide Binding and KIR Interactions Are Associated with Remission among Children with Atopic Dermatitis: A Longitudinal Study.

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a disease of immune dysregulation and skin barrier dysfunction with a relapsing, remitting course and has been associated with several different genetic risk variants. HLA represent a highly variable set of genes that code for cell surface protein molecules involved in the Ag-specific immune response, including the regulation or functioning of T cells, NK cells, and APCs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate associations between HLA class I polymorphisms and the progression of AD over time. We evaluated the associations of AD symptoms and HLA class I polymorphisms based on high-resolution two-field typing in a longitudinal cohort of children with AD (up to 10 y of follow-up). Seven hundred and ninety-two children were evaluated every 6 mo, resulting in 12,752 AD evaluations. Using generalized estimating equations and corrected p values, B*44:02 was found to be associated with AD remission (1.83 [1.35, 2.47]; p = 0.0015). The HLA-B residues at position 116 (d-aspartate) and 80 (T-threonine) were associated with remission (1.42 [1.13, 1.76], p = 0.003; corrected p = 0.028) and (1.45 [1.17, 1.80], p = 0.0008; corrected p = 0.0024), respectively. B80T is a killer-cell Ig-like receptor (KIR) site. Our findings reveal that two axes of immune response (T cell and NK cell) may influence disease progression. Identifying binding pocket changes in addition to other factors (e.g., allergens) that increase the risk or severity of AD can improve our understanding of the immunologic mechanisms associated with AD and may lead to personalized therapies for improving patient care.

Comparative Effectiveness of an Automated Text Messaging Service for Monitoring COVID-19 at Home.

BACKGROUND: Although most patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection can be safely managed at home, the need for hospitalization can arise suddenly. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether enrollment in an automated remote monitoring service for community-dwelling adults with COVID-19 at home ("COVID Watch") was associated with improved mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Mid-Atlantic academic health system in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Outpatients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between 23 March and 30 November 2020. INTERVENTION: The COVID Watch service consists of twice-daily, automated text message check-ins with an option to report worsening symptoms at any time. All escalations were managed 24 hours a day, 7 days a week by dedicated telemedicine clinicians. MEASUREMENTS: Thirty- and 60-day outcomes of patients enrolled in COVID Watch were compared with those of patients who were eligible to enroll but received usual care. The primary outcome was death at 30 days. Secondary outcomes included emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. Treatment effects were estimated with propensity score-weighted risk adjustment models. RESULTS: A total of 3488 patients enrolled in COVID Watch and 4377 usual care control participants were compared with propensity score weighted models. At 30 days, COVID Watch patients had an odds ratio for death of 0.32 (95% CI, 0.12 to 0.72), with 1.8 fewer deaths per 1000 patients (CI, 0.5 to 3.1) (P = 0.005); at 60 days, the difference was 2.5 fewer deaths per 1000 patients (CI, 0.9 to 4.0) (P = 0.002). Patients in COVID Watch had more telemedicine encounters, ED visits, and hospitalizations and presented to the ED sooner (mean, 1.9 days sooner [CI, 0.9 to 2.9 days]; all P < 0.001). LIMITATION: Observational study with the potential for unobserved confounding. CONCLUSION: Enrollment of outpatients with COVID-19 in an automated remote monitoring service was associated with reduced mortality, potentially explained by more frequent telemedicine encounters and more frequent and earlier presentation to the ED. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute.

The Future of Causal Inference.

The past several decades have seen exponential growth in causal inference approaches and their applications. In this commentary, we provide our top-10 list of emerging and exciting areas of research in causal inference. These include methods for high-dimensional data and precision medicine, causal machine learning, causal discovery, and others. These methods are not meant to be an exhaustive list; instead, we hope that this list will serve as a springboard for stimulating the development of new research.

Pediatric Hospitalizations from Immigration Detention in Texas, 2015-2018.

Although there are concerns regarding children's health in immigration detention, there are little data regarding hospitalizations in this population. Using 2015-2018 Texas inpatient data, we identified 95 hospitalizations of children in detention and found that most (60%) were driven by infectious causes, and that 37% of these children were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) or intermediate ICU.

No Association of filaggrin copy number variation and atopic dermatitis risk in White and Black Americans.

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic, inflammatory skin condition with a multifactorial pathophysiology. The filaggrin gene (FLG) has particularly been implicated given loss of function (LoF) mutations in this gene lead to skin barrier dysfunction and such mutations can increase a patient's likelihood of developing AD. FLG has intragenic copy number variation (CNV), which impacts the total amount of filaggrin produced. Previous research reported a dose-dependent effect such that as amount of FLG increases, risk of AD decreases. To gain a better understanding, we evaluated FLG CNV in a large case-control study of Whites and Blacks with and without AD. The goal of our study was to determine whether FLG CNV has a dose-dependent effect on the risk of developing AD and to determine whether FLG CNV varies by race. The frequencies and odds ratios comparing a given CNV by race or race within those with AD did not significantly vary. It had been thought that FLG CNV might vary by race and represent an important association with AD in Black AD subjects. However, our work suggests that while there are racial differences with respect to CNV, these differences do not appear to explain AD risk.

Purchases of Nontaxed Foods, Beverages, and Alcohol in a Longitudinal Cohort After Implementation of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that sweetened beverage taxes reduce taxed beverage purchases, but few studies have used individual-level data to assess whether these taxes affect purchases of nontaxed foods, beverages, and alcohol. Additionally, research has not examined whether sweetened beverage taxes influence restaurant purchases. OBJECTIVES: We assessed changes in individuals' purchases of taxed beverage types; low-calorie/low-added-sugar nontaxed beverages; high-calorie/high-added-sugar nontaxed beverages, foods, and alcohol; and beverages from restaurants following implementation of the 1.5 cent-per-ounce Philadelphia sweetened beverage tax. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort of adult sugar-sweetened beverage consumers in Philadelphia (n = 306; 67% female; mean age: 43.9 years) and Baltimore (n = 297; comparison city without a beverage tax; 58% female; mean age: 41.7 years) submitted all food and beverage receipts during 2-week periods at baseline and at 3, 6, and 12 months posttax. Difference-in-differences analyses compared changes in purchases from pre- to posttax in Philadelphia to changes in Baltimore. RESULTS: Purchases of taxed juice drinks [ratio of incidence rate ratios (RIRR) = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42-0.91], but not other taxed beverage types, decreased in Philadelphia compared to Baltimore following the tax. Analyses did not find changes in purchases of low-calorie/low-added-sugar nontaxed beverages, such as water or milk. Additionally, analyses did not find increases in purchases of most high-calorie/high-added-sugar nontaxed products, including alcohol, juice, candy, sweet snacks, salty snacks, and desserts. Purchases of beverage concentrates increased in Philadelphia (RIRR = 2.22; 95% CI, 1.39-3.54). CONCLUSIONS: In this difference-in-differences analysis, the Philadelphia beverage tax was associated with reduced purchases of taxed juice drinks. Purchases of beverage concentrates increased after the tax, but no increases were observed for other high-calorie/high-added-sugar nontaxed foods, beverages, or alcohol.

Further evidence that wound size and duration are strong prognostic markers of diabetic foot ulcer healing.

Diabetic foot ulcers (DFU) are a critical problem for those with diabetes mellitus. Predicting the healing likelihood of a DFU is important to implementing appropriate care, allocating resources, having access to advanced therapies, having successful clinical trials, calibrating clinical trial results, and providing information to administrative entities on patient and provider outcomes. Prognostic modelling can also be important when attempting to compare results across trials or care centres. In a prospective cohort study, we demonstrate and replicate that simple wound characteristics like wound area and wound duration can be used to predict wound healing by the 16th week of care. The models were based on previous literature and replicated using a machine learning algorithm. The use of wound duration and wound area in a prognostic model continues to be important when comparing study results, centre-based outcomes, as well as designing clinical trials.