Equity assessment of maternal and child healthcare benefits utilization and distribution in public healthcare facilities in Bangladesh: a benefit incidence analysis.

BACKGROUND: The distribution of healthcare services should be based on the needs of the population, regardless of their ability to pay. Achieving universal health coverage implies first ensuring that people of all income levels have access to quality healthcare, and then allocating resources reasonably considering individual need. Hence, this study aims to understand how public benefits in Bangladesh are currently distributed among wealth quintiles considering different layers of healthcare facilities and to assess the distributional impact of public benefits. METHODS: To conduct this study, data were extracted from the recent Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18. We performed benefit incidence analysis to determine the distribution of maternal and child healthcare utilization in relation to wealth quintiles. Disaggregated and national-level public benefit incidence analysis was conducted by the types of healthcare services, levels of healthcare facilities, and overall utilization. Concentration curves and concentration indices were estimated to measure the equity in benefits distribution. RESULTS: An unequal utilization of public benefits observed among the wealth quintiles for maternal and child healthcare services across the different levels of healthcare facilities in Bangladesh. Overall, upper two quintiles (richest 19.8% and richer 21.7%) utilized more benefits from public facilities compared to the lower two quintiles (poorest 18.9% and poorer 20.1%). Benefits utilization from secondary level of health facilities was highly pro-rich, while benefit utilization found pro-poor at primary levels. The public benefits in Bangladesh were also not distributed according to the needs of the population; nevertheless, poorest 20% household cannot access 20% share of public benefits in most of the maternal and child healthcare services even if we ignore their needs. CONCLUSIONS: Benefit incidence analysis in public health spending demonstrates the efficacy with which the government allocates constrained health resources to satisfy the needs of the poor. Public health spending in Bangladesh on maternal and child healthcare services were not equally distributed among wealth quintiles. Overall health benefits were more utilized by the rich relative to the poor. Hence, policymakers should prioritize redistribution of resources by targeting the socioeconomically vulnerable segments of the population to increase their access to health services to meet their health needs.

Inequalities and mental health during the Coronavirus pandemic in the UK: a mixed-methods exploration.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation declared the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) a global pandemic on 11th March 2020. Since then, the world has been firmly in its grip. At the time of writing, there were more than 767,972,961 million confirmed cases and over 6,950,655 million deaths. While the main policy focus has been on controlling the virus and ensuring vaccine roll-out and uptake, the population mental health impacts of the pandemic are expected to be long-term, with certain population groups affected more than others. METHODS: The overall objectives of our 'Coronavirus: Mental Health and the Pandemic' study were to explore UK adults' experiences of the Coronavirus pandemic and to gain insights into the mental health impacts, population-level changes over time, current and future mental health needs, and how these can best be addressed. The wider mixed-methods study consisted of repeated cross-sectional surveys and embedded qualitative sub-studies including in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with the wider UK adult population. For this particular inequalities and mental health sub-study, we used mixed methods data from our cross-sectional surveys and we carried out three Focus Group Discussions with a maximum variation sample from across the UK adult population. The discussions covered the broader topic of 'Inequalities and mental health during the Coronavirus pandemic in the UK' and took place online between April and August 2020. Focus Groups transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis in NVIVO. Cross-sectional survey data were analysed using STATA for descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Three broad main themes emerged, each supporting a number of sub-themes: (1) Impacts of the pandemic; (2) Moving forward: needs and recommendations; (3) Coping mechanisms and resilience. Findings showed that participants described their experiences of the pandemic in relation to its impact on themselves and on different groups of people. Their experiences illustrated how the pandemic and subsequent measures had exacerbated existing inequalities and created new ones, and triggered various emotional responses. Participants also described their coping strategies and what worked and did not work for them, as well as support needs and recommendations for moving forward through, and out of, the pandemic; all of which are valuable learnings to be considered in policy making for improving mental health and for ensuring future preparedness. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic is taking a long-term toll on the nations' mental health which will continue to have impacts for years to come. It is therefore crucial to learn the vital lessons learned from this pandemic. Specific as well as whole-government policies need to respond to this, address inequalities and the different needs across the life-course and across society, and take a holistic approach to mental health improvement across the UK.

Developing a combined framework for priority setting in integrated health and social care systems.

BACKGROUND: There is an international move towards greater integration of health and social care to cope with the increasing demand on services.. In Scotland, legislation was passed in 2014 to integrate adult health and social care services resulting in the formation of 31 Health and Social Care Partnerships (HSCPs). Greater integration does not eliminate resource scarcity and the requirement to make (resource) allocation decisions to meet the needs of local populations. There are different perspectives on how to facilitate and improve priority setting in health and social care organisations with limited resources, but structured processes at the local level are still not widely implemented. This paper reports on work with new HSCPs in Scotland to develop a combined multi-disciplinary priority setting and resource allocation framework. METHODS: To develop the combined framework, a scoping review of the literature was conducted to determine the key principles and approaches to priority setting from economics, decision-analysis, ethics and law, and attempts to combine such approaches. Co-production of the combined framework involved a multi-disciplinary workshop including local, and national-level stakeholders and academics to discuss and gather their views. RESULTS: The key findings from the literature review and the stakeholder workshop were taken to produce a final combined framework for priority setting and resource allocation. This is underpinned by principles from economics (opportunity cost), decision science (good decisions), ethics (justice) and law (fair procedures). It outlines key stages in the priority setting process, including: framing the question, looking at current use of resources, defining options and criteria, evaluating options and criteria, and reviewing each stage. Each of these has further sub-stages and includes a focus on how the combined framework interacts with the consultation and involvement of patients, public and the wider staff. CONCLUSIONS: The integration agenda for health and social care is an opportunity to develop and implement a combined framework for setting priorities and allocating resources fairly to meet the needs of the population. A key aim of both integration and the combined framework is to facilitate the shifting of resources from acute services to the community.

Can knowledgeable experts assess costs and outcomes as if they were ignorant? An experiment within precision medicine evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the validity of the standard approach in expert judgment for evaluating precision medicines, in which experts are required to estimate outcomes as if they did not have access to diagnostic information, whereas in fact, they do. METHODS: Fourteen clinicians participated in an expert judgment task to estimate the cost and medical outcomes of the use of exome sequencing in pediatric patients with intractable epilepsy in Thailand. Experts were randomly assigned to either an "unblind" or "blind" group; the former was provided with the exome sequencing results for each patient case prior to the judgment task, whereas the latter was not provided with the exome sequencing results. Both groups were asked to estimate the outcomes for the counterfactual scenario, in which patients had not been tested by exome sequencing. RESULTS: Our study did not show significant results, possibly due to the small sample size of both participants and case studies. CONCLUSIONS: A comparison of the unblind and blind approach did not show conclusive evidence that there is a difference in outcomes. However, until further evidence suggests otherwise, we recommend the blind approach as preferable when using expert judgment to evaluate precision medicines because this approach is more representative of the counterfactual scenario than the unblind approach.

Examining holistically the experiences of mentors in school-based programs: A logic analysis.

The article presents a Logic Analysis of the Scottish MCR ("Motivation, Commitment and Resilience") Pathways school-based mentoring scheme. MCR Pathways provides vulnerable secondary school students with one-to-one support, helping them realize their full potential through education. The perceptions of 12 mentors were explored through interviews, thematically analyzed and mapped to derive the program's Theory of Change as regards the volunteers themselves. This model was then assessed against the evidence base yielded from prior studies. The evaluation highlighted a mismatch between mentors' outcome expectations and what they actually gained from the experience. Furthermore, some themes (e.g., being driven by community concerns) turned out to be more prominent in the context of this specific scheme than in the wider literature, as opposed to other ones (e.g., developing friendships). The study generates insights into the ways to attract and retain growing numbers of volunteers, as well as to advance scientific knowledge.

A novel and practical care process framework to inform model of care development.

Breaking free of pre-existing assumptions to achieve transformative change in care delivery remains challenging. This article presents a care process framework using a rapid task analysis tested with healthcare teams across five communities in British Columbia, Canada, to provide leaders a novel and practical approach to care model development. The study's goals were to determine if the framework was replicable even though the population care needs differed for each community. The results showed the framework was replicable, informed the care model development, and identified ideal scopes of practice and team composition given the context of care. The framework also captured expert tacit knowledge and decision-making to build capacity given our current workforce challenges. For operational leaders and government agencies, the use of the framework may influence a shift in historical approaches that better aligns health and human resources capacity to population health and service needs.

Disease-specific distress healthcare financing and catastrophic out-of-pocket expenditure for hospitalization in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Financial risk protection and equity are two fundamental components of the global commitment to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC), which mandates health system reform based on population needs, disease incidence, and economic burden to ensure that everyone has access to health services without any financial hardship. We estimated disease-specific incidences of catastrophic out-of-pocket health expenditure and distress financing to investigate progress toward UHC financial risk indicators and investigated inequalities in financial risk protection indicators by wealth quintiles. In addition, we explored the determinants of financial hardship indicators as a result of hospitalization costs. METHODS: In order to conduct this research, data were extracted from the latest Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), conducted by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics in 2016-2017. Financial hardship indicators in UHC were measured by catastrophic health expenditure and distress financing (sale/mortgage, borrowing, and family support). Concentration curves (CC) and indices (CI) were estimated to measure the pattern and severity of inequalities across socio-economic classes. Binary logistic regression models were used to assess the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure and distress financing. RESULTS: We found that about 26% of households incurred catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and 58% faced distress financing on hospitalization in Bangladesh. The highest incidence of CHE was for cancer (50%), followed by liver diseases (49.2%), and paralysis (43.6%). The financial hardship indicators in terms of CHE (CI = -0.109) and distress financing (CI = -0.087) were more concentrated among low-income households. Hospital admission to private health facilities, non-communicable diseases, and the presence of chronic patients in households significantly increases the likelihood of higher UHC financial hardship indicators. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings strongly suggest the need for national-level social health security schemes with a particular focus on low-income households, since we identified greater inequalities between low- and high-income households in UHC financial hardship indicators. Regulating the private sector and implementing subsidized healthcare programmes for diseases with high treatment costs, such as cancer, heart disease, liver disease, and kidney disease are also expected to be effective to protect households from financial hardship. Finally, in order to reduce reliance on OOPE, the government should consider increasing its allocations to the health sector.

Drivers and distribution of the household-level double burden of malnutrition in Bangladesh: analysis of mother-child dyads from a national household survey.

OBJECTIVE: The double burden of malnutrition (DBM) has become an emerging public health issue in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to provide important evidence for the prevalence of different types of DBM at the national and subnational levels in Bangladesh. DESIGN: The study utilised data from the latest Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2017-2018. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify the sociodemographic factors associated with DBM. SETTING: Nationally representative cross-sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS: 8697 mothers aged 15 to 49 years with <5 children. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of the DBM was approximately 21 %, where the prevalence of overweight mother (OWM) & stunted child/wasted child/underweight child (SC/WC/UWC) and underweight mother (UWM) & overweight child (OWC) was 13·35 % and 7·69 %, respectively, with a higher prevalence among urban households (OWM & SC/WC/UWC = 14·22 %; UWM & OWC = 10·58 %) in Bangladesh. High inequality was observed among UWM & OWC dyads, concentration index (CI) = -0·2998, while low level of inequality of DBM were observed for OWM & SC (CI = 0·0153), OWM & WC (CI = 0·1165) and OWM & UWC (CI = 0·0135) dyads. We observed that the age and educational status of the mother, number of children, fathers' occupation, size and wealth index of the household, and administrative division were significantly associated with all types of DBM. CONCLUSIONS: Health policymakers, concerned authorities and various stakeholders should stress the prevalence of DBM issues and take necessary actions aimed at identifying and addressing the DBM in Bangladesh.

What is the value of explicit priority setting for health interventions? A simulation study.

Many countries seek to secure efficiency in health spending through establishing explicit priority setting institutions (PSIs). Since such institutions divert resources from frontline services which benefit patients directly, it is legitimate and reasonable to ask whether they are worth the money. We address this question by comparing, through simulation, the health benefits and costs from implementing two alternative funding approaches - one scenario in which an active PSI enables cost-effectiveness-threshold based funding decisions, and a counterfactual scenario where there is no PSI. We present indicative results for one dataset from the United Kingdom (published in 2015) and one from Malawi (published in 2018), which show that the threshold rule reliably resulted in decreased health system costs, improved health benefits, or both. Our model is implemented in Microsoft Excel and designed to be user-friendly, and both the model and a user guide are made publicly available, in order to enable others to parameterise the model based on the local setting. Although inevitably stylised, we believe that our modelling and results offer a valid perspective on the added value of explicit PSIs.

Implementation barriers and remedial strategies for community-based health insurance in Bangladesh: insights from national stakeholders.

BACKGROUND: Community-based health insurance (CBHI) is a part of the health system in Bangladesh, and overcoming the obstacles of CBHI is a significant policy concern that has received little attention. The purpose of this study is to analyze the implementation barriers of voluntary CBHI schemes in Bangladesh and the strategies to overcome these barriers from the perspective of national stakeholders. METHODS: This study is exploratory qualitative research, specifically case study design, using key informant interviews to investigate the barriers of CBHI that are faced during the implementation. Using a topic guide, we conducted thirteen semi-structured in-depth interviews with key stakeholders directly involved in the CBHI implementation process. The data were analyzed using the Framework analysis method. RESULTS: The implementation of CBHI schemes in Bangladesh is being constrained by several issues, including inadequate population coverage, adverse selection and moral hazard, lack of knowledge about health insurance principles, a lack of external assistance, and insufficient medical supplies. Door-to-door visits by local community-health workers, as well as regular promotional and educational campaigns involving community influencers, were suggested by stakeholders as ways to educate and encourage people to join the schemes. Stakeholders emphasized the necessity of external assistance and the design of a comprehensive benefits package to attract more people. They also recommended adopting a public-private partnership with a belief that collaboration among the government, microfinance institutions, and cooperative societies will enhance trust and population coverage in Bangladesh. CONCLUSIONS: Our research concludes that systematically addressing implementation barriers by including key stakeholders would be a significant reform to the CBHI model, and could serve as a foundation for the planned national health protection scheme for Bangladesh leading to universal health coverage.

A model-based study to estimate the health and economic impact of health technology assessment in Thailand.

OBJECTIVES: Health technology assessment (HTA) plays a central role in the coverage and reimbursement decision-making process for public health expenditure in many countries, including Thailand. However, there have been few attempts to quantitatively understand the benefits of using HTA to inform resource allocation decisions. The objective of this research was to simulate the expected net monetary benefit (NMB) from using HTA-based decision criteria compared to a first-come, first-served (FCFS) approach using data from Thailand. METHODS: A previously published simulation model was adapted to the Thai context which aimed to simulate the impact of using different decision-making criteria to adopt or reject health technologies for public reimbursement. Specifically, the simulation model provides a quantitative comparison between an HTA-based funding rule and a counterfactual (FCFS) funding rule to make decisions on which health technologies should be funded. The primary output of the model was the NMB of using HTA-based decision criteria compared to the counterfactual approach. The HTA-based decision rule in the model involved measuring incremental cost-effectiveness ratios against a cost-effectiveness threshold. The counterfactual decision rule was a FCFS (random) selection of health technologies. RESULTS: The HTA-based decision rule was associated with a greater NMB compared to the counterfactual. In the investigated analyses, the NMB ranged from THB24,238 million (USD725 million) to THB759,328 million (USD22,719 million). HTA-based decisions led to fewer costs, superior health outcomes (more quality-adjusted life-years). CONCLUSIONS: The results support the hypothesis that HTA can provide health and economic benefits by improving the efficiency of resource allocation decision making.

Antimicrobial Resistance: Is Health Technology Assessment Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?

Antimicrobial resistance is a serious challenge to the success and sustainability of our healthcare systems. There has been increasing policy attention given to antimicrobial resistance in the last few years, and increased amounts of funding have been channeled into funding for research and development of antimicrobial agents. Nevertheless, manufacturers doubt whether there will be a market for new antimicrobial technologies sufficient to enable them to recoup their investment. Health technology assessment (HTA) has a critical role in creating confidence that if valuable technologies can be developed they will be reimbursed at a level that captures their true value. We identify 3 deficiencies of current HTA processes for appraising antimicrobial agents: a methods-centric approach rather than problem-centric approach for dealing with new challenges, a lack of tools for thinking about changing patterns of infection, and the absence of an approach to epidemiological risks. We argue that, to play their role more effectively, HTA agencies need to broaden their methodological tool kit, design and communicate their analysis to a wider set of users, and incorporate long-term policy goals, such as containing resistance, as part of their evaluation criteria alongside immediate health gains.

Assessing the performance of health technology assessment (HTA) agencies: developing a multi-country, multi-stakeholder, and multi-dimensional framework to explore mechanisms of impact.

BACKGROUND: Health technology assessment (HTA) agencies have an important role to play in managing the rising demands on health systems. However, creating and running such agencies potentially diverts resources from frontline services. A large number of studies address the question of 'what is the impact of HTA?'. Several points of heterogeneity in this literature include: purpose of the study, definition of HTA, definition of impact, and scope and rigour of evaluations. Our study seeks to address several limitations in this literature. This study aims to explore the mechanisms of impact of an HTA agency. In doing so, we consider HTA as an institution rather than a knowledge product to build an impact evaluation framework from an international, multi-stakeholder and multi-dimensional perspective. METHODS: We conducted 9 key informant interviews with experts from the international HTA community. We addressed several questions, informed by existing frameworks of impact within the literature, to understand their perspectives on the mechanisms of impact of an HTA agency. We analyse data using logic modelling and impact mapping, as tools to understand and visualise mechanisms of change. FINDINGS: Our impact mapping highlights several distinct, but not necessarily mutually exclusive, mechanisms through which the overall impact of an HTA agency is achieved. These are: the effective conduct of HTA studies; effective use of HTA in agenda-setting and policy formulation processes; effective engagement and external communications; good institutional reputation and fit within the healthcare and policy-making system; effective use of HTA as a tool for the negotiation of health technology prices; and the effective implementation of policy change regarding health technologies. We also identify indicators of these effects. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings and resulting evaluation framework complement and add to existing literature by offering a new perspective on the mechanisms by which HTA agencies generate impact. This new perspective considers HTA as an institution rather than a knowledge product, is international, multi-dimensional, and includes multi-stakeholder views. We hope the analysis will be useful to countries interested in managing HTA performance.

Trading off health and financial protection benefits with multiobjective optimization.

Countries which are introducing a system of Universal health coverage have to make a number of key tradeoffs, of which one is the tradeoff between the level of coverage and the degree to which patients are exposed to potentially catastrophic financial risk. In this study, we first present a way in which decision makers might be supported to focus on in a particular part of the tradeoff curve and ultimately choose an efficient solution. We then introduce some multiobjective optimization models for generating the tradeoff curves given data about potential treatment numbers, costs, and benefits. Using a dataset from Malawi, we demonstrate the approach and suggest a core index metric to make specific observations on the individual treatments. Moreover, as there has been some debate about the best way to measure financial exposure, we also investigate the extent to sensitivity of our results to the precise technical choice of financial exposure metric. Specifically, we consider two metrics, which are the total number of cases protected from catastrophic expenditure and a convex penalty function that penalizes out-of-pocket expenditures in an increasingly growing way, respectively.

Households' out-of-pocket expenditure for healthcare in Bangladesh: A health financing incidence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in many health indicators, providing access to affordable healthcare remains a considerable challenge in Bangladesh. Financing incidence analysis will enable an evaluation of how well the healthcare system performs to achieve equity in health financing. The objective of this study is to assess the burden of out-of-pocket (OOP) cost on different socio-economic groups by assessing the health financing incidence because OOP cost dominates household expenditure on health in Bangladesh. METHODS: The study was conducted using latest Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016. We focused mainly on four specific indicators: level of monthly household OOP cost on in-patient care, urban-rural differences in OOP cost, socio-economic status differences in different payment mechanisms and the Kakwani index. Descriptive statistics were employed to analyse and summarise the selected variables based on the SES and location of residence (e.g., rural and urban). RESULTS: The study showed the overall OOP healthcare expenditure was 7.7% of the household monthly income while the poorer income group suffered more and spent up to 35% of their household income on healthcare. The Kakwani index indicated that the poorest quintile spends a greater share of their income on healthcare services than the richest quintile. CONCLUSIONS: This study observed that OOP cost in Bangladesh is regressive, that is, poorer members of society contribute a greater share of their income. Therefore, policymakers should initiate health reforms for developing and implementing risk-pooling financing mechanisms such as social health insurance to achieve the Universal Health Coverage in Bangladesh.

Real-world evaluation of the impact of statin intensity on adherence and persistence to therapy: A Scottish population-based study.

AIM: To assess associations between statin intensity and adherence, persistence and discontinuation of statin therapy in Scotland. METHOD: Retrospective cohort study, using linked electronic health records covering a period from January 2009 to December 2016. The study cohort included adult patients (≥18 years) newly initiating statins within Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Scotland. Study outcomes comprised adherence, discontinuation and persistence to treatment, stratified by three exposure groups (high, moderate and low intensity). Discontinuation and persistence were calculated using the refill-gap and anniversary methods, respectively. Proportion of days covered (PDC) was used as a proxy for adherence. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate discontinuation, and associations between adherence/persistence and statin intensity were assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 73 716 patients with a mean age of 61.4 ± 12.6 years were included; the majority (88.3%) received moderate intensity statins. Discontinuation rates differed between intensity levels, with high-intensity patients less likely to discontinue treatment compared to those on moderate intensity (prior cardiovascular disease [CVD]: HR 0.43 [95% CI 0.34-0.55]; no prior CVD: 0.80 [0.74-0.86]). Persistence declined over time, and high-intensity patients had the highest persistence rates. Overall, 52.6% of patients were adherent to treatment (PDC ≥ 80%), but adherence was considerably higher among high-intensity patients (63.7%). CONCLUSION: High-intensity statins were associated with better persistence and adherence to treatment, but overall long-term persistence and adherence remain a challenge, particularly among patients without prior CVD. This needs addressing.

Inequality of childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh: A decomposition approach.

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition is one of the major public health concerns in Bangladesh. This study examined the trends and patterns of childhood undernutrition, inequality, and its socioeconomic contributors in Bangladesh. METHODS: Data were extracted from the last four rounds of the Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS). A regression-based decomposition method was applied to assess the socioeconomic contributors of inequality. RESULTS: Although the prevalence of childhood undernutrition has declined during the period 2004 to 2014, the rate of undernutrition is higher among the children of mothers who had lower education, live in rural areas, and are from the poorest wealth quintile. Socioeconomic status accounted for almost half of the total inequality in the prevalence of both stunting and underweight among children, whereas maternal education was ranked second among the contributors. CONCLUSIONS: Findings of the study indicate that undernutrition inequalities in terms of socioeconomic aspects appear to have widened over time. Improving economic activity and maternal education will improve the nutritional status of children and as a consequence reduce inequality. Therefore, investments in education, creation of working opportunities, and empowerment of vulnerable and disadvantaged people along with nutrition-specific interventions will be important measures to eliminate this inequality at the population level.

Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Support Health Technology Assessment Agencies: Benefits, Limitations, and the Way Forward.

OBJECTIVE: Recent years have witnessed an increased interest in the use of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to support health technology assessment (HTA) agencies for setting healthcare priorities. However, its implementation to date has been criticized for being "entirely mechanistic," ignoring opportunity costs, and not following best practice guidelines. This article provides guidance on the use of MCDA in this context. METHODS: The present study was based on a systematic review and consensus development. We developed a typology of MCDA studies and good implementation practice. We reviewed 36 studies over the period 1990 to 2018 on their compliance with good practice and developed recommendations. We reached consensus among authors over the course of several review rounds. RESULTS: We identified 3 MCDA study types: qualitative MCDA, quantitative MCDA, and MCDA with decision rules. The types perform differently in terms of quality, consistency, and transparency of recommendations on healthcare priorities. We advise HTA agencies to always include a deliberative component. Agencies should, at a minimum, undertake qualitative MCDA. The use of quantitative MCDA has additional benefits but also poses design challenges. MCDA with decision rules, used by HTA agencies in The Netherlands and the United Kingdom and typically referred to as structured deliberation, has the potential to further improve the formulation of recommendations but has not yet been subjected to broad experimentation and evaluation. CONCLUSION: MCDA holds large potential to support HTA agencies in setting healthcare priorities, but its implementation needs to be improved.

Investing in antibiotics to alleviate future catastrophic outcomes: What is the value of having an effective antibiotic to mitigate pandemic influenza?

Over 95% of post-mortem samples from the 1918 pandemic, which caused 50 to 100 million deaths, showed bacterial infection complications. The introduction of antibiotics in the 1940s has since reduced the risk of bacterial infections, but growing resistance to antibiotics could increase the toll from future influenza pandemics if secondary bacterial infections are as serious as in 1918, or even if they are less severe. We develop a valuation model of the option to withhold wide use of an antibiotic until significant outbreaks such as pandemic influenza or foodborne diseases are identified. Using real options theory, we derive conditions under which withholding wide use is beneficial, and calculate the option value for influenza pandemic scenarios that lead to secondary infections with a resistant Staphylococcus aureus strain. We find that the value of withholding an effective novel oral antibiotic can be positive and significant unless the pandemic is mild and causes few secondary infections with the resistant strain or if most patients can be treated intravenously. Although the option value is sensitive to parameter uncertainty, our results suggest that further analysis on a case-by-case basis could guide investment in novel agents as well as strategies on how to use them.

Performance evaluation of nonhomogeneous hospitals: the case of Hong Kong hospitals.

Throughout the world, hospitals are under increasing pressure to become more efficient. Efficiency analysis tools can play a role in giving policymakers insight into which units are less efficient and why. Many researchers have studied efficiencies of hospitals using data envelopment analysis (DEA) as an efficiency analysis tool. However, in the existing literature on DEA-based performance evaluation, a standard assumption of the constant returns to scale (CRS) or the variable returns to scale (VRS) DEA models is that decision-making units (DMUs) use a similar mix of inputs to produce a similar set of outputs. In fact, hospitals with different primary goals supply different services and provide different outputs. That is, hospitals are nonhomogeneous and the standard assumption of the DEA model is not applicable to the performance evaluation of nonhomogeneous hospitals. This paper considers the nonhomogeneity among hospitals in the performance evaluation and takes hospitals in Hong Kong as a case study. An extension of Cook et al. (2013) [1] based on the VRS assumption is developed to evaluated nonhomogeneous hospitals' efficiencies since inputs of hospitals vary greatly. Following the philosophy of Cook et al. (2013) [1], hospitals are divided into homogeneous groups and the product process of each hospital is divided into subunits. The performance of hospitals is measured on the basis of subunits. The proposed approach can be applied to measure the performance of other nonhomogeneous entities that exhibit variable return to scale.