[Cancer figures in Italy: an overview]. / Panoramica sui numeri del cancro in Italia.

BACKGROUND: the description of the geographical distribution and temporal trends of cancer is relevant for prevention and improving the quality of care. This is primarily achieved through the incidence measures derived from population cancer registries (CRs). In recent years, in Italy there has been a prevalence of 'real-time' estimates and projections, although based on rather dated data. Given the significant increase in registration activity and still in absence of a national cancer registry network, the recent publication of Volume 12 of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) provides a valuable opportunity to update cancer incidence estimates in Italy and to provide national and macroarea reference estimates. OBJECTIVES: to explore the pattern of cancer in Italy by reviewing and reorganizing the most recent data from cancer registries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: data from Italian cancer registries included in CI5 for the years 2013-2017 were obtained. Populations were verified, corrected for errors, and normalized to Italian National census reconstruction. The completeness of CR data was assessed using the mortality/incidence ratio applied to potential outlier data. Age-specific rates, Age standardized rates (ASRs), and truncated rates for adults (35-64 years) were calculated for 79 different neoplasms. Analyses were performed for individual CRs and macroareas. Temporal comparisons were made for 23 CRs with data from 2008-2012. RESULTS: the observed incidence rates show extreme heterogeneity. Among males, the overall ASR ranges from 584 per 100,000 in the province of Reggio Calabria to 809.9 per 100,000 in the province of Sondrio. Among women, ASR is highest in Emilia-Romagna (540.5) and lowest in the province of Avellino (409.9). The gradient with decreasing rates from North to South is clearly visible only for female breast cancer. Higher rates of lung cancer are observed for the city of Naples in both genders. In adult males (35-64 years), ASRs of lung cancer are maximum in the provinces of Caserta and Naples, where they are more than double the ASRs observed in the Veneto Region. In general, a significant decline in male ASRs is observed in Northern Italy compared to the previous five-year period. A significant part of this trend is influenced by lung cancer that is significantly decreasing throughout the Centre-North among men and substantially increasing among women. The database and tables with details of all calculated indicators are provided as supplementary material. CONCLUSIONS: the analysis has shown the importance of a review of real CR data and, in general, working with real data to not only develop specific estimates of cancers in Italy, but also to share reference rates and basic data for further analysis. The present review has also revealed critical issues with data submitted to the IARC. The comparison and verification of data quality through control and audit processes must represent a concrete operational perspective of the national cancer registry network. From the perspective of cancer epidemiology, important indications emerge regarding the distribution of cancers that can fuel aetiological research, as well as the planning of prevention and care activities. The data also show that it is advisable to separate the provinces of Caserta and Naples from the South in estimation and projection models. The comparison and verification of data quality through control and audit processes must represent a concrete operational perspective of the national cancer registry network.

[Intercensal reconstruction of population and descriptive epidemiological measures in Italy: what is the impact on the cancer incidence rates?]. / La ricostruzione intercensuaria della popolazione e le misure di epidemiologia descrittiva in Italia: qual è l'impatto sui tassi di incidenza dei tumori?

OBJECTIVES: to test the effect on cancer incidence rates when using precensal computation (computed population) or intercensal reconstruction of population (reconstructed population). DESIGN: comparison between computed and reconstructed population by area and period in 2002-2011; evaluation of the effect on cancer rates using Italian cancer registries data. Setting e participants: population data from the Italian National Institute for Statistics, cancer data from Italian cancer registries; specific analysis involves data from Parma (Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy) and Taranto (Apulia Region, Southern Italy) cancer registries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ratio between computed and reconstructed population by area, gender, age, and period; ratio between corresponding age-standardized incidence rates. RESULTS: Italian population estimates by precensal computation for years 2002-2011 was generally higher than that obtained by intercensal reconstruction especially in 2011, when this has been found in more than 86% of Italian Municipalities. In the same year a smaller proportion of Municipalities (11%) showed an inverse population ratio. Among the most populated Municipalities, the City of Milan showed the higher precensal to intercensal population ratio (1.076), while the City of Taranto showed the lower precensal to intercensal population ratio (0.956). The ratios between age standardized rates obtained with precensal population to those obtained with intercensal population show similar differences; in particular, for all cancer in males and females they were, respectively, 0.985 and 0.982 in the Province of Parma, 0.974 and 0.968 in the City of Parma, 1.023 and 1.013 in the Province of Taranto, and 1.08 and 1.051 in the City of Taranto. CONCLUSION: using precensal population as denominator for the year 2002- 2011 produces a remarkable distortion of both temporal trend and geographical comparisons. It is, therefore, necessary that researchers take into account this possible distortion when reporting descriptive measures in the years between the last two censuses in Italy.

[Evaluation of the cancer co-pay fee exemption data source (048 code) to estimate cancer incidence]. / Valutazione del flusso delle esenzioni ticket per neoplasia (codice 048) per stimare l'incidenza dei tumori.

OBJECTIVES: to assess whether the data source of cancer exemption ticket (code 048) correctly estimate the cancer incidence produced by Cancer registries (CR). DESIGN: comparison between incidence estimates produced by cancer exemptions ticket and cases registered by CR. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: six CRs provided incidence data for one year in the five-year period from 2007 to 2011 and for the previous five years, the exemptions provided for the same year and for the previous five years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: incidence distribution by gender, age and tumour site, exemptions 048/incident cancers ratio, and trend estimates. RESULTS: out of 14,586 patients with 048 exemption, a first group was present in the CR database in the same reference year (No. 8,015) and a second group in the previous 6 months (No. 1,696). Of the remaining 4,875, only 2,771 were prevalent cases and 2,104 were manually re-valued: 514 non-cancer; 710 non-malignant/noninfiltrating tumours, 250 non-residents, 532 unknown, and 98 lost at CR. The exemption/ tumours ratio was 32%in males and 37% in females. Out of 27,632 cancer patients in CR, only 29% had a 048 exemption. Among linked cases, there is a case-mix problem: the exemptions overestimated the weight of some cancer sites (breast, prostate), but underestimate the weight of other sites (stomach, liver, lung) and the burden of tumours in the elderly.The trend estimated from the exemptions underestimates the true incidence of tumours and presents fluctuations, because of local administrative and organisational issues. CONCLUSIONS: the 048 codes are an accessory source for CRs, but when used as single flow they are not able to estimate the true incidence of tumours and, therefore, do not provide useful information on cancer trends.

Corrigendum: Environmental pressures, tumor characteristics, and death rate in a female breast cancer cohort: a seven-years Bayesian survival analysis using cancer registry data from a contaminated area in Italy.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1310823.].

Environmental pressures, tumor characteristics, and death rate in a female breast cancer cohort: a seven-years Bayesian survival analysis using cancer registry data from a contaminated area in Italy.

Introduction: In Taranto, Southern Italy, adverse impacts on the environment and human health due to industrial installations have been studied. In the literature, few associations have been reported between environmental factors and breast cancer mortality in women. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between residence in areas with high environmental pressures, female breast cancer characteristics, and death rate. Methods: Data from the Taranto Cancer Registry were used, including all women with invasive breast cancer diagnosed between 01 January 2015 and 31 December 2020 and with follow-up to 31 December 2021. Bayesian mixed effects logistic and Cox regression models were fitted with the approach of integrated nested Laplace approximation, adjusting for patients and disease characteristics. Results: A total of 10,445 person-years were observed. Variables associated with higher death rate were residence in the contaminated site of national interest (SIN) (HR 1.22, 95% CrI 1.01-1.48), pathological/clinical stage III (HR 2.77, 95% CrI 1.93-3.97) and IV (HR 17.05, 95% CrI 11.94-24.34), histological grade 3 (HR 2.50, 95% CrI 1.20-5.23), Ki-67 proliferation index of 21-50% (HR 1.42, 95% CrI 1.10-1.83) and > 50% (HR 1.81, 95% CrI 1.29-2.55), and bilateral localization (HR 1.65, 95% CrI 1.01-2.68). Variables associated with lower death rate were estrogen and/or progesterone receptor positivity (HR 0.61, 95% CrI 0.45-0.81) and HER2/neu oncogene positivity (HR 0.59, 95% CrI 0.44-0.79). Discussion: The findings confirmed the independent prognostic values of different female breast cancer characteristics. Even after adjusting for patients and disease characteristics, residence in the SIN of Taranto appeared to be associated with an increased death rate.

Gender differences, environmental pressures, tumor characteristics, and death rate in a lung cancer cohort: a seven-years Bayesian survival analysis using cancer registry data from a contaminated area in Italy.

Introduction: In Taranto, Southern Italy, adverse impacts on the environment and human health due to industrial installations have been studied. In the literature, associations have been reported between gender, environmental factors, and lung cancer mortality in women and men. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between gender, residence in areas with high environmental pressures, bronchus/lung cancer characteristics, and death rate. Methods: Data from the Taranto Cancer Registry were used, including all women and men with invasive bronchus/lung cancer diagnosed between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020 and with follow-up to 31 December 2022. Bayesian mixed effects logistic and Cox regression models were fitted with the approach of integrated nested Laplace approximation, adjusting for patients and disease characteristics. Results: A total of 2,535 person-years were observed. Male gender was associated with a higher prevalence of histological grade 3 (OR 2.45, 95% CrI 1.35-4.43) and lung squamous-cell carcinoma (OR 3.04, 95% CrI 1.97-4.69). Variables associated with higher death rate were male gender (HR 1.24, 95% CrI 1.07-1.43), pathological/clinical stage II (HR 2.49, 95% CrI 1.63-3.79), III (HR 3.40, 95% CrI 2.33-4.97), and IV (HR 8.21, 95% CrI 5.95-11.34), histological grade 3 (HR 1.80, 95% CrI 1.25-2.59), lung squamous-cell carcinoma (HR 1.18, 95% CrI 1.00-1.39), and small-cell lung cancer (HR 1.62, 95% CrI 1.31-1.99). Variables associated with lower death rate were other-type lung cancer (HR 0.65, 95% CrI 0.44-0.95), high immune checkpoint ligand expression (HR 0.75, 95% CrI 0.59-0.95), lung localization (HR 0.73, 95% CrI 0.62-0.86), and left localization (HR 0.85, 95% CrI 0.75-0.95). Discussion: The results among patients with lung cancer did not show an association between residence in the contaminated site of national interest (SIN) and the prevalence of the above mentioned prognostic factors, nor between residence in SIN and death rate. The findings confirmed the independent prognostic values of different lung cancer characteristics. Even after adjusting for patients and disease characteristics, male gender appeared to be associated with a higher prevalence of poorly differentiated cancer and squamous-cell carcinoma, and with an increased death rate.

[Environment and health in Taranto, southern Italy: epidemiological studies and public health recommendations]. / Ambiente e salute a Taranto: studi epidemiologici e indicazioni di sanità pubblica.

INTRODUCTION: in Taranto IPS (Italian polluted site, made up of 2 municipalities) the Decree defining site boundaries lists the presence of a refinery, a steel plant, a harbour area and waste landfills together with illegal dumping sites. Previous environmental and epidemiological investigations in the area documented the presence of environmental contamination and increased mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases as well as a number of cancer sites; for these same health outcomes the cohort study of residents showed increased risk both in terms of mortality and morbidity. OBJECTIVE: to describe the health status of residents in Taranto IPS analyzing different health indicators available at municipal level, i.e. mortality (2003-2009), mortality time trend (1980-2008) and cancer incidence (2006-2007). METHODS: the analyses were carried out for residents in Taranto IPS. Mortality update (SENTIERI Project, 2003-2009) regards 63 single or grouped causes (all ages, both genders); for a selection of causes 0-1 and 0-14 age classes were analyzed (both genders combined). Standardized mortality ratio crude (SMR) and deprivation adjusted together with 90% confidence intervals (90%CI) were computed using regional rates for comparison. Mortality time trend (1980-2008, triennial intervals) were analyzed calculating standardized rates (0-99 years, both genders, per 100,000, Italian population at 2001 Census as reference) and 90%CI. Time trends were computed for all causes, all neoplasms (and lung cancer), cardiovascular diseases (and ischemic heart diseases), respiratory diseases (also acute and chronic) and all causes infant mortality (both genders combined). For cancer incidence (2006-2007) Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 90%CI were calculated for both genders; incidence rates of cancer registries of the macroarea South and Islands (2005-2007) and rates of Taranto Province excluding SIN municipalities (2006-2007) were used for comparison. RESULTS: in Taranto IPS mortality among men is in excess in both periods (SENTIERI Project 1995-2002 and 2003-2009) for all causes, all neoplasms (including lung and pleural cancer), dementia, cardiovascular diseases (including hypertension and ischemic heart diseases), respiratory diseases (including the acute ones) and digestive diseases (including liver cirrhosis). All causes infant mortality is in excess in both periods. Time trends show that Taranto IPS rates are higher than regional average in the majority of time intervals for most causes in both genders. Rates are often higher than national average form any triennial intervals. Among males, over the whole period, mortality in Taranto IPS is higher than regional and national average for causes as lung cancer, diseases of the respiratory system, including the chronic ones. Among females, since the early Nineties, lung cancer and ischemic heart diseases are in excess in Taranto IPS. Also infant mortality is higher for the whole period in Taranto IPS than regional and national averages. Cancer incidence results show excesses for cancer sites already indicated by mortality data. CONCLUSIONS: mortality analyzed in the context of SENTIERI Project (1995-2002 and 2003-2009), time trend mortality (1980-2008) and cancer incidence (2006- 2007) show, in both genders, excesses for causes for which an etiologic role of environmental exposure present in Taranto IPS are either ascertained or suspected on the basis of a priori evaluation of the epidemiological evidence. The finding of excess infant mortality is of the utmost importance in public health terms. Most diseases showing an increased risk have multifactorial etiology, therefore interventions of proven efficacy, such as smoking cessation, food education, measures for cardiovascular risk reduction and breast cancer and colon screening programmes should be planned. To build a climate of confidence and trust between citizens and public institutions study results and public health actions are to be communicated objectively and transparently.

Population-based incidence of gastrointestinal stromal tumors in Puglia.

INTRODUCTION: This study presents the incidence of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) in an Italian region of over 4 million inhabitants monitored for 10 years and is the largest incidence study of this type of cancer conducted so far in Italy. METHODS: In order to ensure the registration of all GISTs, including those with nonmalignant behavior, a cancer list was integrated with the cases found through an ad hoc data mining process that covered all the pathologic reports of Puglia. Case distributions by sex, age groups, site, and prognostic groups according to Miettinem and Lasota classification and crude and age-standardized incidence rates were produced. RESULTS: In the 10-year period 2006 to 2015, 708 cases of GIST were recorded in Puglia. The average crude incidence rate was 1.7 per 100,000 person-years and the age-standardized incidence rate, using 2013 European standard population, was 1.8 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-1.9). Incidence was higher in men than in women: crude incidence rate was 2.0 per 100,000 person-years and age-standardized incidence rate 2.2 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 2.0-2.4) in men and 1.5 per 100,000 person-years and 1.4 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 1.2-1.6) in women. DISCUSSION: Our incidence rates are comparable with those of other international studies and they are located in the medium to high end of the range. The comparisons are affected by a different capacity of the cancer registries to intercept and record GISTs with nonmalignant behavior. Distribution of cases for sex, age groups, sites, and prognostic risk groups are consistent with previous results.

Distribution of second primary malignancies suggests a bidirectional effect between breast and endometrial cancer: a population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of second primary tumors in patients with breast cancer (BC), with particular regard to bidirectional risk for endometrial cancer (EC). METHODS: A total of 7512 and 343 patients with first and second primary BC, respectively, were referenced to the expected number of cases calculated using the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) over the same period, to evaluate the observed and expected ratio between the groups. Data on tamoxifen use were also considered. RESULTS: A total of 499 women with primary BC developed a second tumor. The total SIR, that is, the ratio between observed second primary cancer among patients with BC and the expected primary cancers in the general population, was significantly higher (SIR = 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.34; P = 0.007), particularly for melanoma (2.25), EC (2.15), ovarian cancer (1.74), hematologic malignancies (1.36), and bilateral BC (1.25). A greater risk of BC after thyroid (2.22) and EC (1.62) was also observed. Furthermore, the risk of developing EC was higher in patients treated with tamoxifen (SIR = 2.50 vs 1.34). CONCLUSIONS: Bidirectional risk of endometrial cancer was not exclusively related to tamoxifen use.

Strong seasonality in the diagnosis of skin melanoma in Italy: the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (AIRTUM) study.

AIM: To evaluate seasonality in the diagnosis of cutaneous melanoma in Italy. METHODS: A total of 16,284 invasive (and 1,235 in situ) cutaneous melanomas incident from 1978 to 2002 in 14 cancer registries belonging to the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (AIRTUM) was analyzed. We used the Walter and Elwood test to evaluate seasonality. The monthly distribution of diagnosis was evaluated for sex, skin site, melanoma morphology and period of diagnosis. RESULTS: The overall monthly diagnosis of invasive melanoma showed a statistically significant excess around the month of June. The same pattern was present for males and females, across age-groups and periods of time. All skin sites showed a cycling trend, melanoma of the head and neck peaked around April, all the others peaked around June. As regards morphologic types, a cyclic trend was evident for superficial-spreading melanomas (peak around July), for not-specified melanomas (June) and for other histotypes (June). Diagnosis of in situ melanoma peaked in September. CONCLUSIONS: The present study showed that also in Italy melanoma diagnosis has a seasonal trend, with the peak in early summer. It seemed that summer UV exposure, acting both as a late promoter of malignant melanoma development and also increasing the visibility of pigmented skin lesion, may be relevant to explain such a peak.

The risk of developing a second, different, cancer among 14 560 survivors of malignant cutaneous melanoma: a study by AIRTUM (the Italian Network of Cancer Registries).

The aim of this study was to provide further quantitative data on the risk of second nonmelanoma cancers in patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). A cohort of 14 560 population-based patients from the Italian Network of Cancer Registries incident during 1985-2002 were included and followed up for further incident cases and vital status. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were used to compare the number of observed second cancers with expected cancers. In a total of 69 581 person-years, 1020 second cancers were registered, of which 804.6 were expected (SIR=1.27; 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.35). The risk was similar for males and females, (SIR=1.27 and 1.26, respectively). The risk was slightly higher among younger (<60 years; SIR=1.44) than older (60+ years; SIR=1.19) patients. The overall risk in the period after CMM diagnosis did not change significantly (SIR=1.34 during the first 5 years and 1.12 afterwards). No differences in the overall risk were evident in different years of diagnosis, for different melanoma morphology types or for different geographical areas within Italy. Statistically significantly increased risks were found for nonmelanoma skin cancers [observed number (n)=362, SIR=3.12], for bone (n=5, SIR=6.08) and for kidney cancers (n=39, SIR=1.95) and lower than expected risks were found for liver (SIR=0.46) and lung cancers (SIR=0.71). We confirm that CMM patients are at high risk for nonmelanoma skin cancers. The reasons for the increased risk of kidney and bone cancers are not yet clear.

Incidence and clinicopathologic features of gastrointestinal stromal tumors. A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Although the diagnostic criteria and pathogenesis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) have recently been elucidated, knowledge of the epidemiology of this malignancy is still limited. This study examined the incidence of GIST in the province of Modena, including pathologic features and clinical outcome. METHODS: Gastrointestinal mesenchymal tumors identified by the Modena Cancer Registry between 1991 and 2004 were analyzed with an immunohistochemical panel that included staining for CD-117 and PDGFRalpha. Size, mitotic rate, and other pathologic parameters were recorded. Each tumor was categorized into National Institutes of Health risk categories (very low, low, intermediate, and high risk). RESULTS: One hundred twenty-four cases were classified as GIST. The age-adjusted incidence rate was 6.6 per million. Seventy-five percent of patients were symptomatic; 34% had a previous or concomitant history of cancer. High-risk features were present in 47% of cases. Seventy-eight percent were submitted to radical surgery. After complete resection, the 5-year disease-free survival rates were 94%, 92%, 100%, and 40% for patients at very low, low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. In multivariate analysis, high risk was the main predictor of recurrence. CONCLUSION: This population-based study shows that the incidence of GIST in Northern Italy is comparable to that reported in other European countries. Survival was favorable in lower risk categories and in most of the resected cases. In our study, resected patients at very low, low, and intermediate risk had a similar outcome. Our data support the need to consider high-risk patients after complete surgical resection for treatment with the best available approach.

Cancer incidence estimation method: an Apulian experience.

The Cancer Registry of Puglia (RTP) was instituted in 2008 as a regional population-based cancer registry. It consists of six sections (Foggia, Barletta-Andria-Tran, Bari, Brindisi, Lecce, and Taranto) and covers more than 4 000 000 inhabitants. At present, four of six sections have received accreditation by AIRTUM (53% of regional population). To point out possible regional geographic variability in cancer incidence and also to support health services planning, we developed an original estimation method to ensure a complete territorial coverage. Incidence data of the four accredited RTP sections for the shared incidence period 2006-2008, the 2001-2009 hospitalization regional data, and 2006-2009 mortality data were considered. To take into account specific health features of different provinces, we performed an estimate of cancer incidence rates of nonaccredited sections using a combination of accredited sections rates and a factor that combines mortality and hospitalization ratios available for all the sections. Finally, we validated the method and we applied it to estimate regional cancer rates as the population-weighted average of accredited sections and nonaccredited sections adjusted rates. The validation process shows that estimated rates are close to real incidence data. The most frequent neoplasms in Apulia are breast (direct standardized rates 96.8 per 100 000 inhabitants), colon-rectum (36.6), and thyroid cancer (25.3) in women and prostate (70.2), lung (68.4), and colon-rectum cancer (52.2) in men. This method could be useful to assess the cancer incidence when complete cancer registration data are not available, but hospitalization, mortality, and neighbouring incidence data are available.

Prognosis of screen-detected breast cancers: results of a population based study.

BACKGROUND: The reduced mortality rate from breast carcinoma among women offered screening mammography is demonstrated after 15-20 years of follow-up. However, the assessment of 5-year overall and event-free survival could represent an earlier measure of the efficacy of mammography screening program (MSP). METHODS: All cases of breast cancer diagnosed in the Province of Modena between years 1996 and 2000 in women aged 50 to 69 years, were identified through the Modena Cancer Registry (MCR). Stage of disease and treatment information were obtained from clinical records. All the events occurring up to June 30, 2003 were retrieved by experienced monitors. Five-year overall and event-free survival were the principal end-points of the study. RESULTS: During a 5-year period, 587 primary breast cancers were detected by the MSP and 471 primary breast cancers were diagnosed out of the MSP. The screen-detected breast cancers were smaller, more likely node negative, with low histological grade, low proliferative activity and positive receptors status. Furthermore, the breast cancer diagnosed through the MSP more frequently received a conservative surgery. The 5-year survival rate was 94% in the screen-detected group, versus 84% in the other group (p = 0.0001). The rate of 5-year event-free survival was 89% and 75% for the MSP participants and not participants, respectively (p = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm a favourable outcome of screen-detected breast cancers in terms of five-year overall and event-free survival, which reflect the good quality assurance parameters of the MSP. Finally, a cancer registry should be implemented in every area covered by screening programs.

[Cancer incidence in Modena: 2002-2006 projections]. / L'incidenza dei tumori nella Provincia di Modena: previsioni per il periodo 2002-2006.

OBJECTIVE: Cancer incidence predictions for the period 2002-2006 in the Province of Modena applying a Bayesian APC (Age Period Cohort) model. DESIGN: Population based descriptive study. SETTING: Patients with cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2001 recorded in Modena Cancer Registry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of cases, crude and standardized incidence rates. RESULTS: Cancer incidence in 2002-2006 is expected to increase in both sexes, with the exception of stomach cancer (males and females) and lung cancer in males, both expected to decrease. The difference between the number of cases predicted for 2002 and observed data was about 0.7%. CONCLUSION: Prediction based on APC model seems to be reliable for most of the cancer sites, but should be used cautiously. In particular, projected number of breast and prostate cancer cases is clearly overestimated due to diagnostic anticipation effect which gives rise to an excess in recent years.

Estimates of cancer burden in Lazio.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: Since 1983 a population-based cancer registry has been operating in Lazio which provides incidence and survival data and covers the entire Latina province, amounting to 10% of the regional population. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence for seven major cancers in the Lazio region for the period 1970-2015. METHODS: The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. RESULTS: In 2012 the most frequent cancer sites were breast, colon-rectum and prostate with 5,529, 5,315 and 4,759 new diagnosed cases, respectively. The cancers with increasing incidence trends were breast cancer, lung cancer and skin melanoma in women, and prostate cancer, colorectal cancer and melanoma in men. The incidence rates of uterine cervix and stomach cancer decreased. The male lung cancer rates increased, reaching a peak in the late 1980s, and then decreased. Prevalence increased for all the considered cancers except cervix cancer. In 2012 breast, colorectal and prostate cancer had the highest prevalence, with 68,239, 36,617 and 33,934 prevalent cases, respectively. In the final period of the study the mortality declined for all cancers except female lung cancer. In 2012, the highest mortality rates were estimated for lung cancer in both men and women, with 89 and 40 deaths per 100,000, respectively. CONCLUSION: These estimates give a useful description of the present and future cancer patterns in the Lazio region. Incidence, mortality and prevalence projections provide new information for health resource planning. Furthermore, they point to the need to reinforce the organized screening programs, especially for breast and colorectal cancer.

Estimates of cancer burden in Puglia.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: A regional population-based cancer registry that provides incidence and survival data has become active only recently. Since it is important to know the time trends of basic epidemiological indicators to understand the cancer burden in the region, this paper will provide incidence, prevalence and mortality estimates in the region for seven major cancers for the period 1970-2015. METHODS: The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. RESULTS: The incidence rates are estimated to be still increasing for female breast cancer, colorectal cancer in men and skin melanoma in both sexes. By contrast, the incidence rates indicate a decreasing trend for cervix uteri cancer and stomach cancer, the latter both in men and women. For these cancers an analogous trend is observed for mortality, confirming the reduction of the risk factors related to these cancer types. The incidence rates for lung cancer and prostate cancer in men were estimated to rise, reach a peak, and then decrease in the last part of the considered period. Prevalence increased for all the considered cancers except cervix cancer. The increase was striking for breast cancer and less pronounced for stomach cancer in both genders. CONCLUSION: This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers until 2015. The results highlight the need to reinforce effective preventive measures to contrast cancers related to an unhealthy lifestyle and to increase the compliance with organized screening programs to reduce the colorectal and breast cancer burden.

Cancer incidence in people with residential exposure to a municipal waste incinerator: an ecological study in Modena (Italy), 1991-2005.

We conducted a retrospective ecological study to assess cancer incidence during the period 1991-2005 in proximity of a municipal waste incinerator (MWI) in Modena (Italy). We identified three bands of increasing distance from the MWI, up to a radius of 5 km and used the residence as surrogate marker of the exposure. Residential history for Modena's population was reconstructed and residents were associated to the most appropriate census unit. Age-standardized incidence ratios (ASR) and standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were estimated for all cancers and selected sites. Variations in cancer incidence were investigated using space and space-time scan statistic. Deprivation index was taken into account as potential confounding factor. During the 15-year study period, 16,443 new cases of cancer were diagnosed among residents in Modena. The space-time clustering test identified three significant clusters but their shapes were not associable to the MWI exposition. The purely spatial analysis not showed statistically significant clusters. The SIR computed for all cancers and selected sites did not show any excess of risk in the area closest to the plant. Higher SIR for leukaemia was found in the second band from MWI (2-3.5 km) for females (SIR, age and DI adjusted: 1.35, 95%CI: 1.01-1.79) and for both sexes (SIR, age and DI adjusted: 1.28, 95%CI: 1.03-1.57), but not a spatial trend was observed, thus excluding a possible link with MWI. In conclusion, bearing in mind the intrinsic limits of the study, the results suggest that there is no detectable increase of cancer risk for people living in proximity to the Modena MWI.

Estimating survival in newly diagnosed cancer patients: use of computer simulations to evaluate performances of different approaches in a wide range of scenarios.

Many empirical studies have proven the usefulness of period analysis in providing more up-to-date estimates of cancer patient survival than cohort-based methods. The aim of this paper is to provide a non-empirical evaluation of several survival approaches over a comprehensive range of scenarios using computer simulations. The simulation model included the following input parameters: number of annual patients, length of survival calculation, number of years of diagnosis, prognosis of cancer, follow-up period, and two additional parameters for modeling assumption on incidence and survival trends. The current study also introduced alternative cohort- and period-based approaches in addition to more traditional methods. Simulations showed that the choice of an appropriate survival approach is strongly dependent on the given scenario: period analysis was effective only for a limited number of circumstances, while alternative approaches appeared to be suitable for more realistic situations, when the follow-up period is different from the incidence period. The results of simulations could be useful for a quick identification of the most appropriate approach when estimating up-to-date cancer survival rates.