An Introduction to Bayesian Spatial Smoothing Methods for Disease Mapping: Modeling County Firearm Suicide Mortality Rates.

This article introduces Bayesian spatial smoothing models for disease mapping, a specific application of small area estimation where the full universe of data is known, to a wider audience of public health professionals using firearm suicide as a motivating example. Besag, York and Mollié (BYM) Poisson spatial and space-time smoothing models were fit to firearm suicide counts for the years 2014-2018. County raw death rates in 2018 ranged from 0-24.81 deaths per 10,000 people. However, the highest mortality rate was highly unstable based on only 2 deaths in a population of approximately 800, and 82.4% of contiguous US counties experienced fewer than 10 firearm suicide deaths and were thus suppressed. Spatially smoothed county firearm suicide mortality estimates ranged from 0.06-4.05 deaths per 10,000 people and could be reported for all counties. The space-time smoothing model produced similar estimates with narrower credible intervals as it allowed counties to gained precision from adjacent neighbors and their own rates in adjacent years. Bayesian spatial smoothing methods are a useful tool for evaluating spatial health disparities in small geographies where small numbers can result in highly variable rate estimates, and new estimation techniques in R have made fitting these models more accessible to researchers.

Reporting and Description of Research Methodology in Studies Estimating Effects of Firearm Policies.

BACKGROUND: Evidence about which firearm policies work, to what extent, and for whom is hotly debated, perhaps partly because variation in research methodology has produced mixed and inconclusive effect estimates. We conducted a scoping review of firearm policy research in the health sciences in the United States, focusing on methodological considerations for causal inference. METHODS: We identified original, empirical articles indexed in PubMed from 1 January 2000 to 1 September 2021 that examined any of 18 prespecified firearm policies. We extracted key study components, including policy type(s) examined, policy operationalization, outcomes, study setting and population, study approach and design, causal language, and whether and how authors acknowledged potential sources of bias. RESULTS: We screened 7733 articles and included 124. A plurality of studies used a legislative score as their primary exposure (n = 39; 32%) and did not examine change in policies over time (n = 47; 38%). Most examined firearm homicide (n = 51; 41%) or firearm suicide (n = 40; 32%) as outcomes. One-third adjusted for other firearm policies (n = 41; 33%). Three studies (2%) explicitly mentioned that their goal was to estimate causal effects, but over half used language implying causality (n = 72; 58%). Most acknowledged causal identification assumptions of temporality (n = 91; 73%) and exchangeability (n = 111; 90%); other assumptions were less often acknowledged. One-third of studies included bias analyses (n = 42; 34%). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a range of methodologic approaches in firearm policy research in the health sciences. Acknowledging the imitations of data availability and quality, we identify opportunities to improve causal inferences about and reporting on the effects of firearm policies on population health.

Associations between experiencing violence, owning a firearm for protection and firearm storage: a nationally representative analysis of US caregivers of teens.

OBJECTIVE: To study the interaction between violence exposure and motivations for firearm ownership in their associations with firearm storage among caregivers of teens in the United States. METHODS: In June-July 2020, we conducted a national survey of 2924 caregivers of US teens. We estimated multivariable logistic regressions among caregivers who owned a firearm (n=1095) to evaluate associations between the exposures of community violence, interpersonal violence, and firearm ownership motivations (protection motivations vs non-protection motivations) and the outcome of firearm storage patterns (locked and unloaded vs unlocked and/or loaded). We assessed for a potential interaction between violence exposures and motivations for firearm ownership in their associations with firearm storage. RESULTS: We observed no associations between community (adjusted OR [aOR]: 0.86; 95% CI [0.55 to 1.36]) or interpersonal violence exposure (aOR: 0.60; 95% CI [0.22 to 1.65]) and firearm storage behaviours, and these associations did not vary according to firearm ownership motivations (relative excess risk due to interaction: -0.09 [-1.90 to 1.73]; -2.04 [-6.00 to 1.92]). Owning a firearm for protection was associated with increased odds of storing at least one firearm unlocked and/or loaded (aOR: 3.48; 95% CI [2.11 to 5.75]), and this association persisted across all strata of violence exposures (aORs: 1.51-3.98; 95% CIs [0.52 to 8.31]-[1.96 to 8.08]). CONCLUSIONS: The motivation to own a firearm for protection was associated with storing a firearm unlocked and/or loaded. The results suggest the associations between violence exposure and firearm storage are more complicated than anticipated because (1) exposure to violence was not associated with firearm storage practices and (2) motivations for firearm ownership do not appear to explain why people differ in firearm storage following violence exposure.

Strategies for recruiting adolescents in rural areas in firearm injury research.

BACKGROUND: Participant recruitment is a central aspect of human sciences research. Barriers to participant recruitment can be categorised into participant, recruiter and institutional factors. Firearm injury research poses unique barriers to recruitment. This is especially true for rural adolescents, who are at high risk for firearm-related injury and death, and whose voice is often absent in firearms research. In particular, recruitment strategies targeting adolescents should align with developmental changes occurring during this life stage. Identifying strategies to address recruitment barriers tailored to firearm-related research can help future researchers engage rural adolescents in injury prevention efforts. PURPOSE: The purpose of the current methodology paper is to outline barriers and provide strategies for recruiting rural adolescents in firearms research informed by the Youth Experiences in Rural Washington: Research on Firearm Safety project, a mixed-methods, community-based participatory research study of 13-18 year-olds residing in rural Washington. STRATEGIES: Recruitment barriers and related strategies were organised by participant-related and recruiter-related/institutional-related factors. While carrying out the study, key considerations or strategies which addressed multiple participant and recruiter/institutional factors, emerged with potential to enhance firearm-related research with rural adolescents more broadly. Key considerations included logistics (ie, scheduling flexibility, adequate and aligned incentives), use of a community-based participatory research approach and accounting for developmental stage. CONCLUSION: Reducing the burden of firearm injury and death for rural adolescents and developing effective interventions requires understanding and navigating recruitment barriers. Strategies used in the current project can guide future qualitative or mixed methods data collection informing firearm injury prevention.

Histo-Blood Group Antigen Null Phenotypes Associated With a Decreased Risk of Clinical Rotavirus Vaccine Failure Among Children <2 Years of Age Participating in the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study in Kenya, Mali, and the Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Previously studied risk factors for rotavirus vaccine failure have not fully explained reduced rotavirus vaccine effectiveness in low-income settings. We assessed the relationship between histo-blood group antigen (HBGA) phenotypes and clinical rotavirus vaccine failure among children <2 years of age participating in the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa Study in 3 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: Saliva was collected and tested for HBGA phenotype in children who received rotavirus vaccine. The association between secretor and Lewis phenotypes and rotavirus vaccine failure was examined overall and by infecting rotavirus genotype using conditional logistic regression in 218 rotavirus-positive cases with moderate-to-severe diarrhea and 297 matched healthy controls. RESULTS: Both nonsecretor and Lewis-negative phenotypes (null phenotypes) were associated with decreased rotavirus vaccine failure across all sites (matched odds ratio, 0.30 [95% confidence interval: 0.16-0.56] or 0.39 [0.25-0.62], respectively]. A similar decrease in risk against rotavirus vaccine failure among null HBGA phenotypes was observed for cases with P[8] and P[4] infection and their matched controls. While we found no statistically significant association between null HBGA phenotypes and vaccine failure among P[6] infections, the matched odds ratio point estimate for Lewis-negative individuals was >4. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated a significant relationship between null HBGA phenotypes and decreased rotavirus vaccine failure in a population with P[8] as the most common infecting genotype. Further studies are needed in populations with a large burden of P[6] rotavirus diarrhea to understand the role of host genetics in reduced rotavirus vaccine effectiveness.

Lessons Learned From Integrating Anti-Oppression Pedagogy in a Graduate-Level Course in Epidemiology.

Despite the high burden of injury and violence globally and disproportionate burden on marginalized communities, few US schools of public health and departments of epidemiology offer classes focused on injury and violence, and even fewer are taught with an antiracist or anti-oppression framework. Recent years have brought renewed focus to incorporating antiracist and anti-oppression principles to pedagogy. Public health professionals have increasingly grappled with how we teach, conduct research, and advocate for just policies, which are shaped by interlocking systems of oppression. Although all areas of epidemiology are shaped by these structures, motivations for those who study injury and violence ought to be especially keen. In this commentary, we illustrate how anti-oppression can be integrated into course development and delivery with a case study of a graduate-level course at the University of Washington School of Public Health on injury and violence epidemiology. We include feedback from an epidemiology faculty reviewer, as well as narratives from students describing what worked and what did not. We offer our reflections and lessons learned, hoping to encourage others within public health and epidemiology to adopt an anti-oppression framework in developing classes and programs, particularly those related to injury and violence.

Associations of Fatty Liver Disease With Recovery After Traumatic Injury.

INTRODUCTION: Fatty liver disease (FLD) is associated with systemic inflammation, metabolic disease, and socioeconomic risk factors for poor health outcomes. Little is known on how adults with FLD recover from traumatic injury. METHODS: We studied adults admitted to the intensive care unit of a level 1 trauma center (2016-2020), excluding severe head injury/cirrhosis (N = 510). We measured the liver-spleen attenuation difference in Hounsfield units (HUL-S) using virtual noncontrast computerized tomography scans: none (HUL-S>1), mild (-10≤HUL-S<1), moderate/severe (HUL-S < -10). We used Cox models to examine the "hazard" of recovery from systemic inflammatory response (SIRS score 2 or higher) organ dysfunction, defined as sequential organ failure assessment score 2 or higher, and lactate clearance (<2 mmol/L) in relation to FLD. RESULTS: Fifty-one participants had mild and 29 had moderate/severe FLD. The association of FLD with recovery from SIRS differed according to whether an individual had shock on admission (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-1.05 with shock; HR = 1.81; 95% CI 1.43-2.28 without shock). Compared to patients with no FLD, the hazard of lactate clearance was similar for mild FLD (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 0.63-1.70) and lower for moderate/severe FLD (HR = 0.40; 95% CI 0.18-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: FLD is common among injured adults. Associations of FLD with outcomes after shock and critical illness warrant further study.

Bullying and physical violence and their association with handgun carrying among youth growing up in rural areas.

OBJECTIVES: This study builds on prior research showing a strong relationship between handgun carrying and delinquent behaviors among urban youth by examining the association between handgun carrying trajectories and various types of violence in a rural sample. METHODS: This study uses data from a longitudinal cohort study of 2002 public school students in the United States from 12 rural communities across 7 states from ages 12-26 (2005-2019). We used logistic regressions to assess associations of various bullying and physical violence behaviors with latent trajectories of handgun carrying from adolescence through young adulthood. RESULTS: Compared to youth with very low probabilities of carrying a handgun in adolescence and young adulthood, trajectories with high probabilities of handgun carrying during adolescence or young adulthood were associated with greater odds of using bullying (odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 1.9 to 11.2) and higher odds of using physical violence during adolescence (ORs ranging from 1.5 to 15.9) and young adulthood (ORs ranging from 1.9 to 4.7). These trajectories with higher probabilities of handgun carrying were also associated with greater odds of experiencing physical violence like parental physical abuse and intimate partner violence, but not bullying. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATION: Experiencing and using bullying and physical violence were associated with specific patterns of handgun carrying among youth growing up in rural areas. Handgun carrying could be an important focus of violence prevention programs among those youth.

Views of voluntary, temporary out-of-home firearm storage among individuals living in a firearm-owning home: results from a qualitative study in two states.

INTRODUCTION: Firearms account for the majority of suicide deaths in the USA. A recommended approach for suicide prevention is reducing access to firearms by temporarily removing them from the home. We sought to understand how firearm owners and those who reside with them view and might use voluntary, temporary out-of-home firearm storage. METHODS: From July to November 2021, we interviewed English-speaking adults in Colorado and Washington who own firearms or reside with them, using semistructured interviews. We used a team-based mixed deductive and inductive approach to code transcripts and identify themes. RESULTS: Half of the 38 interviewees were men (53%) aged 35-54 years (40%); 92% identified as white. The average age that participants reported first having a firearm was 20.4 years; 16% reported never owning a firearm themselves, only living in homes with firearms. Qualitative findings fell into broad themes: (1) storage with family members/friends, (2) concerns/challenges with storing a firearm with a business/organization, (3) importance of trust (4) outreach methods for out-of-home storage programmes. CONCLUSION: Programmes for voluntary, temporary out-of-home firearm storage will not be impactful unless such storage is desired and used. Understanding views of potential storage users can help support development of acceptable and feasible programmes.

Race, structural racism and racial disparities in firearm homicide victimisation.

OBJECTIVES: To identify an approach in measuring the association between structural racism and racial disparities in firearm homicide victimisation focusing on racism, rather than race. METHODS: We examined associations of six measures of structural racism (Black/white disparity ratios in poverty, education, labour force participation, rental housing, single-parent households and index crime arrests) with state-level Black-white disparities in US age-adjusted firearm homicide victimisation rates 2010-2019. We regressed firearm homicide victimisation disparities on four specifications of independent variables: (1) absolute measure only; (2) absolute measure and per cent Black; (3) absolute measure and Black-white disparity ratio and (4) absolute measure, per cent Black and disparity ratio. RESULTS: For all six measures of structural racism the optimal specification included the absolute measure and Black-white disparity ratio and did not include per cent Black. Coefficients for the Black-white disparity were statistically significant, while per cent Black was not. CONCLUSIONS: In the presence of structural racism measures, the inclusion of per cent Black did not contribute to the explanation of firearm homicide disparities in this study. Findings provide empiric evidence for the preferred use of structural racism measures instead of race.

Interpersonal Firearm Injury and Death in Portland, Oregon: 2018 Through 2021.

The annual number of firearm injuries in Portland, Oregon has been higher in the years since 2020 than in any prior year in the city's history. This descriptive study analyzed data from Gun Violence Archives (GVA) from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021. All incidents in GVA of interpersonal firearm injury that occurred in Portland during this period were analyzed for location, number of people injured or killed, and demographic information for those injured or killed. Comparisons in firearm injury rates were made with Seattle and San Francisco. Interpersonal firearm injuries began to rise after the first COVID-19 case in Oregon; July 2020 had the most injuries in the four-year period. Black men suffered the highest rate of interpersonal fatalities, with more than 11-fold higher rate per 100,000 than White men in every year studied. Portland had a higher rate of total interpersonal firearm injuries and a higher rate of firearm fatalities from 2018 through 2021 compared to Seattle and San Francisco. Neighborhoods near Downtown and those on the Eastside of the city had the highest rates of interpersonal injuries and deaths from firearms, whereas those in the Southwest had the lowest. Defining the burden of disease from interpersonal firearm injuries is a fundamental step in designing future public health research and implementing interventions to curb the trauma brought by interpersonal firearm injury.

Provider Perspectives on Addressing Firearm Safety with Older Adults in Primary Care.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic conditions, including mild cognitive impairment and depression, place older adults at high risk of firearm suicide. Approximately 40% of older adults have access to a firearm, and many do not store their firearms safely. However, firearm counseling occurs infrequently in clinical settings. Using by the Ottawa Decision Support Framework (ODSF) to conceptualize the decisional support needed by patients and their providers to facilitate firearm counseling, we explore provider perspectives on desired resources for addressing firearm safety with older adult patients. METHODS: From March - August 2022, we conducted 21 semi-structured interviews with primary care providers caring for older adults. We report deductive concepts as well as emergent themes. RESULTS: Major themes were identified from the three components of the ODSF; decisional needs, decision support and decisional outcomes. Themes included: provider self-efficacy to conduct firearm counseling, clinical workflow considerations, stories for change, patient diagnosis implications, and caregiver involvement. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for decision aids in the clinical setting that facilitate firearm counseling and promotes shared decision-making about firearm storage. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Implementing a decision aid in the clinical setting can improve provider self-efficacy to conduct firearm counseling and help reduce risk factors associated with firearm-related harm among older adults.

Extreme Risk Protection Orders in Older Adults in Six U.S. States: A Descriptive Study.

OBJECTIVES: Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs) allow a court to restrict firearm access for individuals ("respondents") at imminent risk of harm to self/others. Little is known about ERPOs use for older adults, a population with higher rates of suicide and dementia. METHODS: We abstracted ERPO cases through June 30, 2020, from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, and Washington. We restricted our analysis to petitions for older (≥65 years) respondents, stratified by documented cognitive impairment. RESULTS: Among 6,699 ERPO petitions, 672 (10.0%) were for older adults; 13.7% (n = 92) of these noted cognitive impairment. Most were white (75.7%) men (90.2%). Cognitively impaired (vs. non-impaired) respondents were older (mean age 78.2 vs 72.7 years) and more likely to have documented irrational/erratic behavior (30.4% vs 15.7%), but less likely to have documented suicidality (33.7% vs 55.0%). At the time of the petition, 56.2% of older adult respondents had documented firearm access (median accessible firearms = 3, range 1-160). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 14% of ERPO petitions for older adults involved cognitive impairment; one-third of these noted suicide risk. Studies examining ERPO implementation across states may inform usage and awareness. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: ERPOs may reduce firearm access among older adults with cognitive impairment, suicidality, or risk of violence.

Trend in Loaded Handgun Carrying Among Adult Handgun Owners in the United States, 2015‒2019.

Objectives. To determine the frequency of loaded handgun carrying among US adult handgun owners overall and by state concealed carry law status. Methods. Using a nationally representative survey of US firearm-owning adults in 2019, we asked handgun owners (n = 2389) about their past-month handgun carrying behavior. Results. A total of 30.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 28.0%, 32.6%) of handgun owners carried handguns monthly, of whom 38.1% (95% CI = 33.6%, 42.7%) did so daily. In permitless carry states, 29.7% (95% CI = 25.9%, 33.9%) of handgun owners carried handguns in the past month, compared with 33.1% (95% CI = 29.9%, 36.3%) in shall issue states and 19.7% (95% CI = 14.9%, 25.5%) in may issue states. Of handgun owners without a permit, 7.5% (95% CI = 4.1%, 13.3%) of those in may issue states and 11.5% (95% CI = 8.5%, 15.4%) of those in shall issues states carried handguns in the past month. Conclusions. In 2019, about 16 million US adult handgun owners carried handguns in the past month (up from 9 million in 2015), and approximately 6 million did so daily (twice the 3 million who did so in 2015). Proportionally fewer handgun owners carried handguns in states where issuing authorities had substantial discretion in granting permits. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(12):1783-1790. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307094).

Income support policies and firearm violence prevention: A scoping review.

Firearm violence is a major threat to global public health and safety. Several individual, family, peer, community, and societal risk and protective factors determine or modify the risk of firearm violence. Specifically, there is a strong relationship between poverty, income inequality, and firearm violence; as such, interventions that influence upstream determinants of health by providing income support may hold much promise in affecting multiple domains of risk that are on the causal pathway to firearm violence. Guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews, we conducted a scoping review to examine the current state of evidence on the relationship between income support policies and risk of firearm violence. We searched 8 databases related to health and social sciences from inception through March 30, 2022, and placed no time, language, setting, or other publication restrictions on our search, as long as the study was quantitative or mixed-methods and addressed firearm violence specifically, rather than violence more broadly, as an outcome in relation to income support policies. We found 4 studies; of those, 3 were conducted in the United States and 1 in Brazil. All 4 found associations of policy-relevant magnitude between income support policies and reductions in risk of inter-personal firearm violence. We propose future opportunities to enhance the substantive scope and methodologic rigor of this field of research and inform policy and practice for greater impact.

Assault-related injuries reported to police and treated by healthcare providers in the United States.

Research suggests that assault-related injuries known by the police significantly differ from those known by healthcare providers, but the magnitude and nature of these differences are poorly understood. To address this gap, our study examined the empirical differences between assault-related injuries reported to police and treated by healthcare providers. In June of 2021, we analyzed the National Crime Victimization Survey (1993-2019) to estimate the prevalence of police reporting and healthcare use among 5093 nonfatal victimizations that caused injury and were either reported to the police or treated by healthcare in the United States. Quasi-Poisson models identified the factors associated with whether people who sustained the injuries used healthcare (v. only reported to police) and reported to police (v. only used healthcare). Among victimizations that caused only minor injuries, 43% involved only a police report, 11% involved only healthcare, and 46% involved both services. Among victimizations that caused serious injuries, 14% involved only a police report, 13% involved only healthcare, and 73% involved both services. Whether people with violent injuries used healthcare (v. only reported to police) and reported to police (v. only used healthcare) was significantly associated with 13 different person- and incident-level factors. The number and nature of assault-related injuries reported to law enforcement significantly differ from those treated by healthcare providers. Therefore, public health efforts to link police and healthcare data are warranted and recommended.

Prevalence of a loaded firearm in the home among birth parents experiencing symptoms of postpartum depression.

Firearm access increases the risk of suicide among all household members. The prevalence of loaded firearms in the home among those experiencing symptoms of postpartum depression (PPD) is unknown. We conducted a cross-sectional study using Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) data from 2012 to 2019. We included participants from the nine jurisdictions that asked about loaded firearms in the home and who screened positive for PPD. We excluded participants whose infants were not alive at time of survey completion and who did not respond to the firearm question, resulting in an analytic sample of 4986 participants. Using PRAMS analytic weights, we estimated the prevalence of a loaded firearm in the home and the prevalence of screening for PPD based on having a loaded firearm in the home. Among PRAMS participants experiencing symptoms of PPD, 8.8% (95% CI: 7.6%, 10.1%) reported there was a loaded firearm in their home. Participants with a loaded firearm in their home were more likely to be White (81.3% vs. 60.6%) and live in a rural area (57.9% vs. 27.5%) than those without. Among participants who reported attending a postpartum checkup, 78.6% (95% CI: 67.0%, 90.2%) of those with a loaded firearm in their home reported having been asked by a provider if they were feeling depressed, compared to 88.7% (95% CI: 85.3%, 92.0%) of those without. About 1 in 11 birth parents experiencing symptoms of PPD report a loaded firearm in their home. Further screening for firearm access in this population may need to be considered.

Voluntary, temporary out-of-home firearm storage: A survey of firearm retailers and ranges in two states.

Out-of-home storage of personal firearms is one recommended option for individuals at risk of suicide, and statewide online maps of storage locations have been created in multiple states, including Colorado and Washington. We sought to examine both the extent to which firearm retailers and ranges offer temporary, voluntary firearm storage and the perceived barriers to providing this service. We invited all firearm retailers and ranges in Colorado and Washington to complete an online or mailed survey; eligible sites had to have a physical location where they could provide storage. Between June-July 2021, 137 retailers/ranges completed the survey (response rate = 25.1%). Nearly half (44.5%) of responding firearm retailers/ranges in Colorado and Washington State indicated they had ever provided firearm storage. Among those who had ever offered storage, 80.3% currently offered storage while 19.7% no longer did. The majority (68.6%) of participants had not heard of the Colorado/Washington gun storage maps and 82.5% did not believe they were currently listed on the maps. Respondents indicated liability waivers would most influence their decision about whether to start or continue providing temporary, voluntary storage of firearms. Understanding current practices, barriers, and concerns about providing out-of-home storage by retailers and ranges may support development of more feasible approaches for out-of-home firearm storage during times of suicide risk.

Extreme risk protection orders in response to threats of multiple victim/mass shooting in six U.S. states: A descriptive study.

Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs), also known as red flag laws, are a potential tool to prevent firearm violence, including mass shootings, but little is currently known about the extent of their use in cases of mass shooting threats or about the threats themselves. We collected and abstracted information from ERPO cases from six states (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, and Washington). Ten percent (N = 662) of all ERPO cases (N = 6787) were in response to a threat of killing at least 3 people. Using these cases, we created a typology of multiple victim/mass shooting threats, the most common of which was the maximum casualty threat. The most common target for a multiple victim/mass shooting threat was a K-12 school, followed by businesses, then intimate partners and their children and families. Judges granted 93% of petitions that involved these threats at the temporary ERPO stage and, of those cases in which a final hearing was held, judges granted 84% of final ERPOs. While we cannot know how many of the 662 ERPO cases precipitated by a threat would have resulted in a multiple victim/mass shooting event had ERPO laws not been used to prohibit the purchase and possession of firearms, the study provides evidence at least that ERPOs are being used in six states in a substantial number of these kinds of cases that could have ended in tragedy.

Perceptions of firearm-related harm among US adults living in firearm-owning households: a nationally representative study.

Decision-making on having firearms at home may be contingent on perceptions of the likelihood of their negative and positive outcomes. Using data from a nationally representative survey (n=4030) conducted during 30 July 2019 to 11 August 2019, we described how US adults living in firearm-owning households perceived the relative likelihood of firearm-related harm by injury intent ('accidentally harm self or someone else with a gun', 'injure self on purpose with a gun' and 'injure someone else on purpose with a gun') for groups at risk of compromised decision-making (children; adolescents and individuals with mental health issues, substance use disorders or cognitive impairment). We found that US adults living in firearm-owning households believe that unintentional firearm injuries are more likely than intentional self-inflicted or assault-related firearm injuries, despite evidence to the contrary. Prior evidence indicates that communicating risk in relative terms can motivate behaviour change; therefore, findings from this study might helpfully inform health communications around firearm safety.