GP working time and supply, and patient demand in England in 2015-2022: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: English primary care faces a reduction in GP supply and increased demand. AIM: To explore trends in GP working time and supply, accounting for factors influencing demand for services. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective observational study in English primary care between 2015 and 2022. METHOD: Trends in median GP contracted time commitment were calculated using annual workforce datasets. Three measures of demand were calculated at practice-level: numbers of patients; numbers of older patients (≥65 years); and numbers of chronic conditions using 21 Quality and Outcomes Framework disease registers. Multi-level Poisson models were used to assess associations between GP supply and practice demand, adjusted for deprivation, region, and year. RESULTS: Between 2015 and 2022, the median full-time equivalent (FTE) of a fully qualified GP decreased from 0.80 to 0.69. There was a 9% increase in registered population per GP FTE (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.14). This increase was steeper using numbers of chronic conditions (32%, IRR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.26 to 1.38). Practices in the most deprived decile had 17% more patients (IRR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.27) and 19% more chronic conditions (IRR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.33) per GP FTE, compared with the least deprived decile. These disparities persisted over time. All regions reported more chronic conditions per GP FTE than London. CONCLUSION: Population demand per GP has increased, particularly in terms of chronic conditions. This increase is driven by several factors, including a reduction in GP contracted time commitments. Persistent deprivation gradients in GP supply highlight the need to recruit and retain GPs more equitably.

Predictors and population health outcomes of persistent high GP turnover in English general practices: a retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: English primary care faces significant challenges, including 'persistent high turnover' of general practitioners (GPs) in some partnerships. It is unknown whether there are specific predictors of persistent high turnover and whether it is associated with poorer population health outcomes. DESIGN: A retrospective observational study. METHODS: We linked workforce data on individual GPs to practice-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics and the GP Patient Survey (2007-2019). We classified practices as experiencing persistent high turnover if more than 10% of GPs changed in at least 3 consecutive years. We used multivariable logistic or linear regression models for panel data with random effects to identify practice characteristics that predicted persistent high turnover and associations of practice outcomes (higher emergency hospital use and patient experience of continuity of care, access to care and overall patient satisfaction) with persistent high turnover. RESULTS: Each year, 6% of English practices experienced persistent high turnover, with a maximum of 9% (688/7619) in 2014. Larger practices, in more deprived areas and with a higher morbidity burden were more likely to experience persistent high turnover. Persistent high turnover was associated with 1.8 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.1) more emergency hospital attendances per 100 patients, 0.1 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.2) more admissions per 100 patients, 5.2% (95% CI -5.6% to -4.9%) fewer people seeing their preferred doctor, 10.6% (95% CI-11.4% to -9.8%) fewer people reporting obtaining an appointment on the same day and 1.3% (95% CI -1.6% to -1.1%) lower overall satisfaction with the practice. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent high turnover is independently linked to indicators of poorer service and health outcomes. Although causality needs to be further investigated, strategies and policies may be needed to both reduce high turnover and support practices facing challenges with high GP turnover when it occurs.

Rates of turnover among general practitioners: a retrospective study of all English general practices between 2007 and 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify general practitioners' (GPs') turnover in England between 2007 and 2019, describe trends over time, regional differences and associations with social deprivation or other practice characteristics. DESIGN: A retrospective study of annual cross-sectional data. SETTING: All general practices in England (8085 in 2007, 6598 in 2019). METHODS: We calculated turnover rates, defined as the proportion of GPs leaving a practice. Rates and their median, 25th and 75th percentiles were calculated by year and region. The proportion of practices with persistent high turnover (>10%) over consecutive years were also calculated. A negative binomial regression model assessed the association between turnover and social deprivation or other practice characteristics. RESULTS: Turnover rates increased over time. The 75th percentile in 2009 was 11%, but increased to 14% in 2019. The highest turnover rate was observed in 2013-2014, corresponding to the 75th percentile of 18.2%. Over time, regions experienced increases in turnover rates, although it varied across English regions. The proportion of practices with high (10% to 40%) turnover within a year almost doubled from 14% in 2009 to 27% in 2019. A rise in the number of practices with persistent high turnover (>10%) for at least three consecutive years was also observed, from 2.7% (2.3%-3.1%) in 2007 to 6.3% (5.7%-6.9%) in 2017. The statistical analyses revealed that practice-area deprivation was moderately associated with turnover rate, with practices in the most deprived area having higher turnover rates compared with practices in the least deprived areas (incidence rate ratios 1.09; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.13). CONCLUSIONS: GP turnover has increased in the last decade nationally, with regional variability. Greater attention to GP turnover is needed, in the most deprived areas in particular, where GPs often need to deal with more complex health needs. There is a large cost associated with GP turnover and practices with very high persistent turnover need to be further researched, and the causes behind this identified, to allow support strategies and policies to be developed.