Characterizing the dynamics, reactivity and controllability of moods in depression with a Kalman filter.

BACKGROUND: Mood disorders involve a complex interplay between multifaceted internal emotional states, and complex external inputs. Dynamical systems theory suggests that this interplay between aspects of moods and environmental stimuli may hence determine key psychopathological features of mood disorders, including the stability of mood states, the response to external inputs, how controllable mood states are, and what interventions are most likely to be effective. However, a comprehensive computational approach to all these aspects has not yet been undertaken. METHODS: Here, we argue that the combination of ecological momentary assessments (EMA) with a well-established dynamical systems framework-the humble Kalman filter-enables a comprehensive account of all these aspects. We first introduce the key features of the Kalman filter and optimal control theory and their relationship to aspects of psychopathology. We then examine the psychometric and inferential properties of combining EMA data with Kalman filtering across realistic scenarios. Finally, we apply the Kalman filter to a series of EMA datasets comprising over 700 participants with and without symptoms of depression. RESULTS: The results show a naive Kalman filter approach performs favourably compared to the standard vector autoregressive approach frequently employed, capturing key aspects of the data better. Furthermore, it suggests that the depressed state involves alterations to interactions between moods; alterations to how moods responds to external inputs; and as a result an alteration in how controllable mood states are. We replicate these findings qualitatively across datasets and explore an extension to optimal control theory to guide therapeutic interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Mood dynamics are richly and profoundly altered in depressed states. The humble Kalman filter is a well-established, rich framework to characterise mood dynamics. Its application to EMA data is valid; straightforward; and likely to result in substantial novel insights both into mechanisms and treatments.

The relationship between childhood trauma, psychotic symptoms, and cognitive schemas in patients with schizophrenia, their siblings, and healthy controls: results from the EU-GEI study.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between childhood trauma (CT) and psychotic symptoms in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ), and subthreshold psychotic experiences in non-clinical populations is well-established. However, little is known about the relationship between subtypes of trauma and specific symptoms in patients, their siblings, and controls. It is also not clear which variables mediate the relationship between trauma and psychotic symptoms. METHODS: Seven hundred and forty-two patients with SCZ, 718 of their unaffected siblings and 1039 controls from three EU-GEI sites were assessed for CT, symptom severity, and cognitive schemas about self/others. CT was assessed with the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, and cognitive schemas were assessed by The Brief Core Schema Scale. RESULTS: Patients with psychosis were affected by CT more than their siblings and controls in all domains. Childhood emotional abuse and neglect were more common in siblings than controls. CT was related to negative cognitive schemas toward self/others in patients, siblings, and controls. We found that negative schemas about self-mediated the relationship between emotional abuse and thought withdrawal and thought broadcasting. Approximately 33.9% of the variance in these symptoms was explained by the mediator. It also mediated the relationship between sexual abuse and persecutory delusions in SCZ. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that childhood abuse and neglect are more common in patients with schizophrenia than their siblings and healthy controls, and have different impacts on clinical domains which we searched. The relationship between CT and positive symptoms seems to be mediated by negative cognitive schemas about self in schizophrenia.

Variation of subclinical psychosis across 16 sites in Europe and Brazil: findings from the multi-national EU-GEI study.

BACKGROUND: Incidence of first-episode psychosis (FEP) varies substantially across geographic regions. Phenotypes of subclinical psychosis (SP), such as psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) and schizotypy, present several similarities with psychosis. We aimed to examine whether SP measures varied across different sites and whether this variation was comparable with FEP incidence within the same areas. We further examined contribution of environmental and genetic factors to SP. METHODS: We used data from 1497 controls recruited in 16 different sites across 6 countries. Factor scores for several psychopathological dimensions of schizotypy and PLEs were obtained using multidimensional item response theory models. Variation of these scores was assessed using multi-level regression analysis to estimate individual and between-sites variance adjusting for age, sex, education, migrant, employment and relational status, childhood adversity, and cannabis use. In the final model we added local FEP incidence as a second-level variable. Association with genetic liability was examined separately. RESULTS: Schizotypy showed a large between-sites variation with up to 15% of variance attributable to site-level characteristics. Adding local FEP incidence to the model considerably reduced the between-sites unexplained schizotypy variance. PLEs did not show as much variation. Overall, SP was associated with younger age, migrant, unmarried, unemployed and less educated individuals, cannabis use, and childhood adversity. Both phenotypes were associated with genetic liability to schizophrenia. CONCLUSIONS: Schizotypy showed substantial between-sites variation, being more represented in areas where FEP incidence is higher. This supports the hypothesis that shared contextual factors shape the between-sites variation of psychosis across the spectrum.

Exploring the mediation of DNA methylation across the epigenome between childhood adversity and First Episode of Psychosis-findings from the EU-GEI study.

ABTRACT: Studies conducted in psychotic disorders have shown that DNA-methylation (DNAm) is sensitive to the impact of Childhood Adversity (CA). However, whether it mediates the association between CA and psychosis is yet to be explored. Epigenome wide association studies (EWAS) using the Illumina Infinium-Methylation EPIC array in peripheral blood tissue from 366 First-episode of psychosis and 517 healthy controls was performed. Adversity scores were created for abuse, neglect and composite adversity with the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ). Regressions examining (I) CTQ scores with psychosis; (II) with DNAm EWAS level and (III) between DNAm and caseness, adjusted for a variety of confounders were conducted. Divide-Aggregate Composite-null Test for the composite null-hypothesis of no mediation effect was conducted. Enrichment analyses were conducted with missMethyl package and the KEGG database. Our results show that CA was associated with psychosis (Composite: OR = 1.68; p = <0.001; abuse: OR = 2.16; p < 0.001; neglect: OR = 2.27; p = <0.001). None of the CpG sites significantly mediated the adversity-psychosis association after Bonferroni correction (p < 8.1 × 10-8). However, 28, 34 and 29 differentially methylated probes associated with 21, 27, 20 genes passed a less stringent discovery threshold (p < 5 × 10-5) for composite, abuse and neglect respectively, with a lack of overlap between abuse and neglect. These included genes previously associated to psychosis in EWAS studies, such as PANK1, SPEG TBKBP1, TSNARE1 or H2R. Downstream gene ontology analyses did not reveal any biological pathways that survived false discovery rate correction. Although at a non-significant level, DNAm changes in genes previously associated with schizophrenia in EWAS studies may mediate the CA-psychosis association. These results and associated involved processes such as mitochondrial or histaminergic disfunction, immunity or neural signalling requires replication in well powered samples. The lack of overlap between mediating genes associated with abuse and neglect suggests differential biological trajectories linking CA subtypes and psychosis.

Associations between childhood adversity, psychiatric symptoms, and self-esteem outcomes in adolescents and young adults: An experience sampling study.

OBJECTIVES: Self-esteem and self-esteem stability are important factors during adolescence and young adulthood that can be negatively impacted by childhood adversity and psychiatric symptoms. We examined whether childhood adversity and psychiatric symptoms are associated with decreased global self-esteem as well as increased self-esteem instability as measured with experience sampling method. In addition, we examined if childhood adversity moderates the association between psychiatric symptoms and self-esteem outcomes. METHODS: Our study consisted of 788 adolescents and young adults who were part of a twin pair. The twin structure was not of interest to the current study. Mean age was 16.8 (SD = 2.38, range: 14-25), 42% was male. We used a multilevel modeling approach to examine our hypotheses to account for the presence of twins in the data set. RESULTS: Childhood adversity and psychiatric symptoms were negatively associated with global self-esteem (respectively standardized ß = -.18, SE = 0.04, p < .0001 and standardized ß = -.45, SE = 0.04, p < .0001), with a larger effect for psychiatric symptoms. Similarly, both were associated with increased self-esteem instability (respectively standardized ß = .076, SE = 0.025, p = .002 and standardized ß = .11, SE = 0.021, p < .0001). In addition, interactions between childhood adversity and psychiatric symptoms on both global self-esteem (standardized ß = .06, SE = 0.01, p < .0001) and self-esteem instability (standardized ß = -.002, SE = 0.0006, p = .001) were found, showing that the negative association of psychiatric symptoms with self-esteem outcomes is less pronounced in young people with higher levels of childhood adversity, or formulated differently, is more pronounced in young people with little or no exposure to childhood adversity. CONCLUSION: Global self-esteem and self-esteem instability in young people are influenced by both current psychiatric symptomatology and exposure to childhood adversity. Those with more psychiatric symptoms show worse self-esteem and higher self-esteem instability, which is moderated by childhood adversity. For young people with high childhood adversity levels lower self-esteem and higher self-esteem instability are less influenced by reductions in psychiatric symptoms.

Adjusting for population stratification in polygenic risk score analyses: a guide for model specifications in the UK Biobank.

The current study was conducted to provide a general guidance for model specifications in polygenic risk score (PRS) analyses of the UK Biobank, such as adjusting for covariates (i.e. age, sex, recruitment centers, and genetic batch) and the number of principal components (PCs) that need to be included. To cover behavioral, physical and mental health outcomes, we evaluated three continuous outcomes (BMI, smoking, drinking) and two binary outcomes (Major Depressive Disorder and educational attainment). We applied 3280 (656 per phenotype) different models including different sets of covariates. We evaluated these different model specifications by comparing regression parameters such as R2, coefficients, and P values, as well as ANOVA tests. Findings suggest that only up to three PCs appears to be sufficient for controlling population stratification for most outcomes, whereas including other covariates (particularly age and sex) appears to be more essential for model performance.

Context v. algorithm: evidence that a transdiagnostic framework of contextual clinical characterization is of more clinical value than categorical diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: A transdiagnostic and contextual framework of 'clinical characterization', combining clinical, psychopathological, sociodemographic, etiological, and other personal contextual data, may add clinical value over and above categorical algorithm-based diagnosis. METHODS: Prediction of need for care and health care outcomes was examined prospectively as a function of the contextual clinical characterization diagnostic framework in a prospective general population cohort (n = 6646 at baseline), interviewed four times between 2007 and 2018 (NEMESIS-2). Measures of need, service use, and use of medication were predicted as a function of any of 13 DSM-IV diagnoses, both separately and in combination with clinical characterization across multiple domains: social circumstances/demographics, symptom dimensions, physical health, clinical/etiological factors, staging, and polygenic risk scores (PRS). Effect sizes were expressed as population attributable fractions. RESULTS: Any prediction of DSM-diagnosis in relation to need and outcome in separate models was entirely reducible to components of contextual clinical characterization in joint models, particularly the component of transdiagnostic symptom dimensions (a simple score of the number of anxiety, depression, mania, and psychosis symptoms) and staging (subthreshold, incidence, persistence), and to a lesser degree clinical factors (early adversity, family history, suicidality, slowness at interview, neuroticism, and extraversion), and sociodemographic factors. Clinical characterization components in combination predicted more than any component in isolation. PRS did not meaningfully contribute to any clinical characterization model. CONCLUSION: A transdiagnostic framework of contextual clinical characterization is of more value to patients than a categorical system of algorithmic ordering of psychopathology.

Bidirectional relationships between cannabis use, anxiety and depressive symptoms in the mediation of the association with psychotic experience: further support for an affective pathway to psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence suggests that people use cannabis to ameliorate anxiety and depressive symptoms, yet cannabis also acutely worsens psychosis and affective symptoms. However, the temporal relationship between cannabis use, anxiety and depressive symptoms and psychotic experiences (PE) in longitudinal studies is unclear. This may be informed by examination of mutually mediating roles of cannabis, anxiety and depressive symptoms in the emergence of PE. METHODS: Data were derived from the second longitudinal Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study. Mediation analysis was performed to examine the relationship between cannabis use, anxiety/depressive symptoms and PE, using KHB logit in STATA while adjusting for age, sex and education status. RESULTS: Cannabis use was found to mediate the relationship between preceding anxiety, depressive symptoms and later PE incidence, but the indirect contribution of cannabis use was small (for anxiety: % of total effect attributable to cannabis use = 1.00%; for depression: % of total effect attributable to cannabis use = 1.4%). Interestingly, anxiety and depressive symptoms were found to mediate the relationship between preceding cannabis use and later PE incidence to a greater degree (% of total effect attributable to anxiety = 17%; % of total effect attributable to depression = 37%). CONCLUSION: This first longitudinal cohort study examining the mediational relationship between cannabis use, anxiety/depressive symptoms and PE, shows that there is a bidirectional relationship between cannabis use, anxiety/depressive symptoms and PE. However, the contribution of anxiety/depressive symptoms as a mediator was greater than that of cannabis.

Use of multiple polygenic risk scores for distinguishing schizophrenia-spectrum disorder and affective psychosis categories in a first-episode sample; the EU-GEI study.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia (SZ), bipolar disorder (BD) and depression (D) run in families. This susceptibility is partly due to hundreds or thousands of common genetic variants, each conferring a fractional risk. The cumulative effects of the associated variants can be summarised as a polygenic risk score (PRS). Using data from the EUropean Network of national schizophrenia networks studying Gene-Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) first episode case-control study, we aimed to test whether PRSs for three major psychiatric disorders (SZ, BD, D) and for intelligent quotient (IQ) as a neurodevelopmental proxy, can discriminate affective psychosis (AP) from schizophrenia-spectrum disorder (SSD). METHODS: Participants (842 cases, 1284 controls) from 16 European EU-GEI sites were successfully genotyped following standard quality control procedures. The sample was stratified based on genomic ancestry and analyses were done only on the subsample representing the European population (573 cases, 1005 controls). Using PRS for SZ, BD, D, and IQ built from the latest available summary statistics, we performed simple or multinomial logistic regression models adjusted for 10 principal components for the different clinical comparisons. RESULTS: In case-control comparisons PRS-SZ, PRS-BD and PRS-D distributed differentially across psychotic subcategories. In case-case comparisons, both PRS-SZ [odds ratio (OR) = 0.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.92] and PRS-D (OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.06-1.61) differentiated AP from SSD; and within AP categories, only PRS-SZ differentiated BD from psychotic depression (OR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.23-3.74). CONCLUSIONS: Combining PRS for severe psychiatric disorders in prediction models for psychosis phenotypes can increase discriminative ability and improve our understanding of these phenotypes. Our results point towards the potential usefulness of PRSs in specific populations such as high-risk or early psychosis phases.

Synergistic effects of childhood adversity and polygenic risk in first-episode psychosis: the EU-GEI study.

BACKGROUND: A history of childhood adversity is associated with psychotic disorder, with an increase in risk according to the number of exposures. However, it is not known why only some exposed individuals go on to develop psychosis. One possibility is pre-existing polygenic vulnerability. Here, we investigated, in the largest sample of first-episode psychosis (FEP) cases to date, whether childhood adversity and high polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia (SZ-PRS) combine synergistically to increase the risk of psychosis, over and above the effect of each alone. METHODS: We assigned a schizophrenia-polygenic risk score (SZ-PRS), calculated from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC2), to all participants in a sample of 384 FEP patients and 690 controls from the case-control component of the EU-GEI study. Only participants of European ancestry were included in the study. A history of childhood adversity was collected using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ). Synergistic effects were estimated using the interaction contrast ratio (ICR) [odds ratio (OR)exposure and PRS - ORexposure - ORPRS + 1] with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: There was some evidence that the combined effect of childhood adversities and polygenic risk was greater than the sum of each alone, as indicated by an ICR greater than zero [i.e. ICR 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.29 to 3.85]. Examining subtypes of childhood adversities, the strongest synergetic effect was observed for physical abuse (ICR 6.25, 95% CI -6.25 to 20.88). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest possible synergistic effects of genetic liability and childhood adversity experiences in the onset of FEP, but larger samples are needed to increase precision of estimates.